Free NCAAFB, NFL & MLB Service Plays For Saturday 9/22/18

KENNY WALKER
NCAA-F | Sep 22, 2018
Texas A&M vs. Alabama
Texas A&M+26½ -105
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JACK JONES

Jack’s Free Pick Saturday: Clemson -15

I think the fact that Clemson is 0-3 ATS thus far this season is keeping this number against Georgia Tech lower than it should be in Week 4. They beat Furman 48-7 but failed to cover as 50-point favorites, they beat Texas A&M on the road 28-26 but failed to cover as 12-point favorites, and they beat Georgia Southern 38-7 and barely failed to cover as 31.5-point favorites.

But that Georgia Southern game was a bigger blowout than the final score even. The Tigers outgained them by 455 yards and should have won by more. And the fact that they played Georgia Southern will be a huge help here because they are playing a triple-option offense for a second consecutive week.

Clemson has certainly had an answer for Georgia Tech’s triple-option offense in recent years, too. Over the past three years, the Tigers have held the Yellow Jackets to just 121 rushing yards per game and 2.9 per carry in their three meetings. Georgia Tech has only managed 17 combined points in its last two meetings with Clemson.

This is a Georgia Tech team that simply isn’t any good. They lost 38-49 as a 3-point favorite at South Florida in Week 2. Then they trailed 6-24 at Pitt last week as this game was decided early before they tacked on a couple of scores late in a 19-24 loss. The big blow was losing RB KirVonte Benson to a season-ending injury in that USF defeat. He rushed for 1,053 yards last year and was their best playmaker outside their QB. No other RB topped 280 yards rushing last year.

Clemson boasts a potent offense that is putting up 38.0 points and 513 yards per game this season. They will do enough offensively to put Georgia Tech away, and I expect their defense to continue the three-year trend of coordinator Will Venables shutting down the triple-option. Look for the Tigers to be focused for their ACC opener and win big in this one. Bet Clemson Saturday.
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BLACK WIDOW
NCAA-F | Sep 22, 2018
Western Michigan vs. Georgia State
Western Michigan-6½ -110
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DOUG UPSTONE
NCAA-F | Sep 22, 2018
Mississippi State vs. Kentucky
Mississippi State-9 -110

On Saturday night, Play Against home teams like KENTUCKY after allowing 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt in last game, against opponent after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards in three straight games. In the last nine years, teams like the Wildcats are unreal 3-22 ATS.
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MATT JOSEPHS
NCAA-F | Sep 22, 2018
Charlotte vs. UMass
OVER 57½

UMass is 1-3 on the season, but has finally returned home after three straight losses. The common thread for those games was an underachieving offense and a lack of defense against the run. All three teams put up over 300 yards rushing on the Minutemen. Andrew Ford and Ross Comis are both injured at quarterback for them. Michael Curtis came in and moved the chains a little bit in the loss to FIU in garbage time. Charlotte is 2-1 and they are playing their first road game this season. Charlotte beat Fordham and ODU in between a 45-9 loss to Appalachian State. The team is using the run heavily to take the pressure off their redshirt freshman quarterback. The defense has held up for the most part although they did give up 70 the last two weeks. UMass has gone over in 16 of their last 27 including eight of their last 12 at home. I think this one does as well.
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MARK WILSON
NCAA-F | Sep 22, 2018
South Alabama vs. Memphis
Free Play on Memphis -26 -110
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CAPPERS CLUB

UNLV vs Arkansas State Over 66.5

This play just missed out on our premium card. This is two teams who don't enjoy playing much defense and love to run up the score on the offensive end.

In the last two games UNLV is averaging 48 points per game and they should have no issue reaching that in this game.

For the Red Wovles they scored 48 points in their first game and they will have success in this one.

Back the Over
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SEAN MURPHY
NCAA-F | Sep 22, 2018
Notre Dame vs. Wake Forest
UNDER 60½

Saturday NCAAF Free play. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Notre Dame and Wake Forest at 12 noon et on Saturday.

We won a big play on the ‘over’ in Wake Forest’s wild 41-34 home loss to Boston College last week but I won’t hesitate to switch gears and back the ‘under’ as the Demon Deacons host the Irish on Saturday afternoon.

While the Notre Dame offense has struggled a bit in the early going this season, its defense has been stout to say the least. The Irish have yet to allow more than 17 points in a game. Last week they didn’t allow Vanderbilt to reach the end zone until the closing seconds of the third quarter (we won with the ‘under’ in that contest). Even against a quality Michigan offense back in Week 1, Notre Dame held the Wolverines offense out of the end zone until the final three minutes of the fourth quarter (it did give up a kick return touchdown in the second quarter).

While Wake Forest has put up a whopping 85 points over its last two games, one of those came against FCS squad Towson and it’s hard to ignore the fact that the Demon Deacons were held out of the end zone until the back half of the second quarter in their season-opener at Tulane (they didn’t score another touchdown until the fourth quarter in that one).

Defensively, Wake Forest got ripped by Boston College last week but we’re talking about a multi-dimensional Eagles offense. That game really opened up after Wake Forest blocked a punt and returned it for a touchdown nearly halfway through the second quarter. The Deacons will undoubtedly need to do a better job of limiting big plays but it’s not as if the Irish offense has been lighting it up.
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Marc lawrence
Free play is on kansas+ over baylor
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SONNY GOLDMAN
NCAA-F | Sep 22, 2018
Western Kentucky vs. Ball State
Ball State-2½ -115
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CHIP CHIRIMBES

Northern Illinois at Florida State 3:30 ET

Seminoles (-) over Huskies

In other times I would look to play the Huskies as Florida might be between big games...well this is a 'big game' to the Seminoles. Both clubs are 1-2 straight-up with FSU a crushing 0-3 ATS including losses to Virginia Tech and Syracuse. Some of the pressure will be relieved from first year coach Willie Taggart who is in 0-2 in ACC action as the Seminoles have won 14 consecutive home games against non-conference opponents. This may not be a rout as in the old-days but they win by enough to cover. Cover yourself tonight with a pair of Best Bet winners...Take FSU
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RED DOG SPORTS
Soccer | Sep 22, 2018
Toulouse vs. Angers
Draw+228

The free soccer pick is on the draw when Angers meets Toulouse in France on Saturday.

Toulouse 1

Angers 1
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STEPHEN NOVER
NCAA-F | Sep 22, 2018
Kansas vs. Baylor
Baylor-7½

Kansas is one of the early-season feel good stories. The Jayhawks have won their last two games beating Central Michigan and Rutgers. Kansas had won three games during its previous three years under fourth-year head coach David Beaty. So what gives with the Jayhawks? Are they really better. Maybe a little. But look for things to revert back to normal for Kansas as it can't maintain it's unbelievable plus 12 turnover margin. That's No. 1 in the country! Kansas had all of nine takeaways last year. Baylor has a far more explosive offense than Kansas and is a step up for the Jayhawks. The Bears have defeated Kansas eight straight times with the average winning margin being by 37 points. Kansas has lost 38 straight Big 12 road contests. The 2-1 Bears will be fired up after a disappointing 40-27 home loss to Duke last week. Duke is good, though. Kansas is not. Pooka Williams is a promising runner. Steven Sims Jr. is a dependable wide receiver. Other than that, I don't think much of Kansas' offense. Baylor has a solid quarterback rotation of Charlie Brewer and Jalan McClendon and are deep at running back and wide receiver. Look for reality to hit the Jayhawks here.
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ROSS BENJAMIN

NC State @ Marshall 7:00 PM ET

Game# 313-314

Play On: Marshall +5.5

This is a dangerous spot for NC State with their ACC slate about to begin next week. Furthermore, they had their game against nationally ranked West Virginia cancelled last week due to “Hurricane Florence” which stalled their momentum from a 2-0 start. Ryan Finley is an excellent quarterback but I’m not crazy about his surrounding cast. This will be by far their toughest game to date after facing James Madison and Georgia State at home in their first 2 games.

Marshall is an experienced and very good “Group of Five” team. The Thundering Herd has gone 28-7 straight up in their last 35 home games and that includes 10-2 when facing non-conference opponents. Since 2017, Marshall is a perfect 4-0 ATS as an underdog of 3.0-points or less and they won 3 of those contests straight up. They’ll also be playing with revenge stemming from last year’s 37-20 loss at NC State. I wouldn’t be shocked at all to see the Thundering Herb pull off an upset on Saturday. However, I won’t be greedy and will take the points with Marshall for my Saturday 9/22 college football free pick of the day.
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LARRY NESS
NCAA-F | Sep 22, 2018
Air Force vs. Utah State
Utah State-10½

My free play is on Utah State at 10:15 ET. The Air Force Falcons and the Utah State Aggies, a pair of teams from the Mountain Division of the Mountain West Conference, will square off Saturday night at Maverik Stadium in Logan, Utah. The Falcons opened the 2018 season with a 38-0 win over Stony Brook 38but then lost 33-27 at Florida Atlantic 33-27 on September 8. Air Force had a bye last weekend and now face a Utah State team that's 2-1, losing only at Michigan State on August 31 as about a 24-point underdog. The Aggies come in off back-to-back blowout wins at home, 60-13 over New Mexico State and 73-12 over Tennessee Tech.

It looks as if Air Force will go with Isaiah Sanders at QB, who was 8-of-13 for 164 yards, one TD and one INT in the loss at FAU. The Air Force D was unable to contain FAU, allowing

525 total yards, including 471 through the air. They became the first service academy beaten by the Owls in their school history. Air Force never led in the game, falling behind 13-0.

After giving a Michigan State team all it wanted at East Lansing in Utah State's opener, the Aggies have shown no mercy in the last two weeks, piling up 133 points in blowing out New Mexico State and Tennessee Tech. Utah St has scored 60-plus points in back-to-back games for the first time in school history.

Both teams have struggled in conference games ATS as of late. Air Force is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 conference games, while Utah State is 5-14 ATS in its last 19 conference games. It's true that the Falcons have a 4-2 edge in the all-time series and have won three straight meetings (including a 38-35 home win in the last meeting on November 25, 2017) but Utah State's offense has been terrific (not many schools score 31 at Michigan St) and the team's 54.7 PPG ranks 4th-best in the nation. Lay the points.

Good luck...Larry
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JOHN MARTIN

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Texas +3.5

The Texas Longhorns had a statement win last week in a 37-14 beat down of USC at home. I think this is a program headed in the right direction and are one of the best teams in the Big 12. They will be out to prove that this week at home against TCU as they look to build on the momentum they’ve gained. I think this is a bad situation for TCU as it feels like it should have won last week against Ohio State, but lost 28-40. I believe they will have dwelled on that loss for at least a few days before turning their attention to Texas. Tom Herman is going to use the ‘underdog card’ in this game. Including his time as an assistant at Iowa State and Ohio State, Herman is a ridiculous 21-1 ATS as an underdog in all games as a coach. Wrong team favored here. Give me Texas.
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Mark Roberts

EASTERN MICHIGAN+
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Andrew Jett

UTAH ST
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Randy Chambers

IOWA+
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Brett Nault

STANFORD
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OSKEIM SPORTS

Event: (319) MINNESOTA U at (320) MARYLAND
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: September 22, 2018 12PM EDT
Play: MINNESOTA U 3.0 (-120)

Minnesota arrives in town with a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS record, winning two of its three games by double-digits and easily outperforming the betting market's expectations in all three. The Golden Gophers possess a stout defense that is allowing 9.0 points and 256 total yards per game at 4.0 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 4.6 yards per play against a mediocre defense.

The Terrapins' inept aerial attack, which rates 0.5 yards per pass play worse than average in 2018), has no chance of success against an excellent Minnesota secondary that is limiting opposing quarterbacks to just 184 passing yards per game at 4.8 yards per pass attempt.

Maryland is coming off its first loss of the season - a 35-14 decision against Temple - in which the Terrapins were outgained 429-193 and finished with thirteen fewer first downs (22-9). The Terrapins' attack has been pedestrian overall from the line of scrimmage (5.8 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.8 yards per play to a mediocre offense) and I don't see how their two quarterbacks (combined 8-of-21 for 63 yards & 4 interceptions last week) will be able to move the chains.

Despite losing its top running back in Rodney Smith to a season-ending knee injury against Fresno State last week, Minnesota has found a capable replacement in Bryce Williams. Williams had 33 rushes for 141 yards against Miami Ohio, together with a 35-yard reception to finish with 176 total yards of offense. Meanwhile, freshman quarterback Zack Annexstad continues to impress the coaching staff with his rapid development under center. Annexstad tweaked his ankle in last week's game against the Redhawks but has been upgraded to "probable" for the Gophers' Big Ten Conference opener against Maryland.

My math model actually favors Minnesota by more than one point in this game and head coach P.J. Fleck is 14-7-1 ATS as an underdog, including 6-1-1 ATS following a win. Game Four home teams coming off their first loss of the season (Maryland) are a money-burning 115-135-4 ATS since 1980, including 32-60-2 ATS if they allowed 35 or more points in their first defeat. These same squads are just 12-32-1 ATS versus conference opponents under the circumstances outlined above.

Finally, I am keenly aware of the fact that Minnesota started last season 3-0 before imploding in conference play. However, the Golden Gophers appear to be a different team in 2018. "We're a completely different team, we're focused on tomorrow," center Jared Weyler said after his team beat Miami Ohio 26-3. In fact, several players were "hanging their heads" in the locker room following last Saturday's win, upset for leaving "a lot of meat on the bone on offense," according to coach Fleck.

"When you know a team comes in after winning by 23 points and they have a little disappointment in them, you know you've got a special group of people," Fleck said. The wrong team is favored in this game - grab the points and invest with confidence.
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VEGAS SYNERGY

Event: (347) LOUISVILLE at (348) VIRGINIA
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: September 22, 2018 12PM EDT
Play: LOUISVILLE 5.5 (-108)
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MR. UFC VEGAS

Event: UFC Fight Night 137
Sport/League: MMA
Date/Time: September 22, 2018 2PM EDT
Play: Renan Barao (-130)

Renan Barao (34-4) is a former UFC bantamweight champion who\'s coming off a 1-4 record in his last 5 fights. Although 3 of those 4 loses came against top level opponents. (Current champion TJ Dillashaw, Jeremy Stephens and Aljamain Sterling). On the other hand Andre Ewell (12-4) has been insanely active fighting 7 times in 2017 and 3 times this year already, but all fights were in lower MMA organizations. Looking at competition level, Ewell just hasn\'t faced anyone near the level of a Barao. In my opinion, with Andre Ewell making his UFC debut against a crafty vet like Barao, it\'s just to big of a step up. Barao will seek to mix it up inside, work hard legs kicks and pressure him up against the cage. Overall, Barao just has to many weapons, more tools and paths to victory compared to Ewell. I believe Renan Barao will get back on track and take the win.
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BOBBY LIGS

Event: (321) Western Kentucky at (322) BALL STATE
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: September 22, 2018 3PM EDT
Play: Western Kentucky 3.0 (+102)
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DAVE COKIN

Event: (321) Western Kentucky at (322) BALL STATE
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: September 22, 2018 3PM EDT
Play: Western Kentucky 3.0 (-110)

Neither one of these teams is any good. But I like some aspects of this game for the visiting Hilltoppers and they do come up as the right side on my numbers. Getting the math out of the way first, WKY is -1, so I like the idea of going against a Cardinals squad that is a false favorite on my ratings. What I like more is that redshirt freshman Davis Shanley will get the start here with senior Drew Eckels injured. Shanley was a definite spark for this team last week against Louisville and I think he can win the gig outright with a good performance here. Nothing against Eckles but he's not what I'd consider a vital component. Eckles was originally a UAB recruit back in 2013. The fact he ended up signing at WKY where he was going to simply be a long term backup speaks volumes to me. Shanley is inexperienced but appears to have more upside and he played well in a big time atmosphere last week. Ball State was a go against for me last week and they got manhandled by Indiana. Maybe that was a bit of letdown spot after a gallant effort against Notre Dame and the Cardinals do have a revenge motive from a tight game last season. I'm going to trust the power ratings and my belief that the Hilltoppers are better with the new guy taking the snaps. Getting the field goal with Western Kentucky is good enough for me.
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BUSTER SPORTS

Event: (359) MISSISSIPPI ST at (360) KENTUCKY
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: September 22, 2018 7PM EDT
Play: KENTUCKY 10.0 (-108)

A couple of perfect 3-0 teams face each other at Kroger Field in Lexington, Kentucky as Mississippi State travels to play Kentucky. Mississippi State comes into this matchup with the ninth best offense in CFB. We are always looking at home team dogs and college football if the situation and number are right and we believe that is the case in this matchup. Mississippi State are 10 point favorites at the time of this writing and we believe that may be a few too many. Both these teams love to run the ball and they both have what we believe are solid players at the QB position. Obviously QB Fitzgerald has the edge. The only reason this is not a larger play for us is that the Mississippi State defense so far has been able to stop the run. We actually believe Kentucky will run the ball on Mississippi State however we’re not willing to put too large a part of our bankroll in case we are wrong. This will be Mississippi State’s first test against SEC competition and we believe this is going to be a closer game than the oddsmaker’s have it, especially with the Bulldogs on the road. The home team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings between the clubs that just solidifies our selection. So lets get the job done with the Kentucky Wildcats as your free play for Saturday in CFB.
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BRYAN LEONARD

Event: (371) TEXAS TECH at (372) OKLAHOMA STATE
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: September 22, 2018 7PM EDT
Play: TEXAS TECH 14.0 (-105)

371 Texas Tech at Oklahoma State

Despite playing Mississippi and Houston the Red Raiders have impressed up despite a 1-1 record. In those two games Texas Tech has averaged a 46.1% succefful offensive play mark while allowing just 42.3% to two very good offensive teams. This is the best two way team that has been in Lubbock in many years. Tech usually has to light up the scoreboard to compete, but that's not the case this year.

Oklahoma State had a coming out party last week as it wore out a very good Boise State club. After dominating the Red Raiders over the past decade, we can easily see this team resting on its laurels. These two clubs are much closer in talent than this line would dictate. Let's take the generous number with the Red Raiders.

PLAY TEXAS TECH
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Totals4U

Early Saturday's Free Selection: Miami-Ohio/Bowling green over 54
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Atlantic Sports

Early Saturday's Free Selection from Atlantic Sports: Bowling Green + 6 1/2
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#1 Sports

Early Saturday's Free Selection: Connecticut Huskies + 29
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Razor Sharp

YOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR EARLY SATURDAY: Take CINCINNATI -8 over Ohio U
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Nevada Sharpshooter

Your free winner for Saturday: Take NEW MEXICO ST -4 over UTEP
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Golden Dragon Sports

FREE WINNER for SATURDAY: Rutgers +6
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Hawkeye Sports

Early Saturday's Free Pick: Western Kentucky Hilltoppers + 2 1/2
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Huddle Up Sports

Free Play: Maryland -2
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The Vegas Steam Line

Your free winner for Saturday: Take TROY -4½ over UL-Monroe
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High Stakes Syndicate

Free Selection for Early Saturday: Massachusetts Minutemen - 7 1/2
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John Anthony Sports

Early Saturday's Free Selection: Virginia Tech Hokies - 27 1/2
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Mike Wynn

Free Play: Oklahoma -31 Over Army
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CAPPERS ACCESS
(CFB)
Michigan
Wake Forest
Indiana
Washington
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Sal Michaels
NCAA-F | Sep 22, 2018
South Carolina vs. Vanderbilt
Free Play on Vanderbilt +2½ -105
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Bobby Conn
NCAA-F | Sep 22, 2018
Pittsburgh vs. North Carolina
1* Free Play on North Carolina +3½ -115
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R&R Totals

R&R Totals FREE CFB Over-Under Saturday 9-22-18

UNDER 51 1/2 -105 Arizona State/Washington
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Joseph D'Amico

Saturday's FREE NCAAF WINNER: UNLV

Game 377.

4:00 pm pst.

Tony Sanchez has our home town boys at 12-4 ATS as a road underdog, since taking over as HC. So, getting 7.5 points here, prompts me to side with our UNLV squad. Going into Jonesboro won't phase them as they covered at Southern Cal this season, Fresno State, Air Force, and Ohio State , last season, UCLA two seasons ago, and Michigan three seasons ago. Arkansas State isn't a bad team, but they are slow starters, going 3-8 ATS the L11 in the month of September and fall flat when facing non-Sun Belt opponents, with a 3-11 ATS mark the L14 vs. non-Conference foes. Take the Rebels. Thank you.
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Mikey Sports

Mikey Sports FREE CFB play Saturday 9-22-18

Oklahoma State -14 -103
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Pure Lock

Pure Lock's FREE CFB play Saturday 9-22-18

Kansas State +17
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Freddy Wills

North Carolina +3.5 1.1% Free Play

I expect North CArolina to show up big time for their state following the hurricane. They’ll be fresh this week while Pitt faced Georgia Tech and 56 rushing attempts with cut blocking. I think North Carolina can run the ball here. They actually outplayed a very good California team in week 1 but had 4 turnovers. They had 164 yards rushing at California. That’s the same Justin Wilcox defense that stuffed BYU rushing attack for 91 yards, which just got done going on the road and beating up on Wisconsin with 191 yards rushing. Meanwhile Pitt has given up 500+ rushing yards the last two weeks.

North Carolina has line value because they lost 41-19 against East Carolina in what I am just calling a flukey game. Pat Narduzzi has not beaten Larry Fedora since he has joined the ACC and I don’t expect they will here, but they are a 3.5 point favorite based on what North Carolina did against East Carolina. The last 7 meetings have all been decided by 7 points, and North Carolina has the better special teams and the field goal plus the hook, playing at home.
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Platinum Plays

Free Pick the New Mexico St Aggies -4 over UTEP
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Jeff Allen Sports

Saturday's Free Selection is on the Virginia Cavaliers
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Jim Feist

Jim Feist's Comp Pick, Saturday, September 22, 2018

CF (349) WESTERN MICHIGAN VS (350) GEORGIA STATE

Take: (349) WESTERN MICHIGAN

Reason: Your free play for Saturday, September 21, 2018 is in the College Football scheduled contest between Western Michigan and Georgia State. Your Free play is on Western Michigan.
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Easy Money Sports

Lee's Early Saturday Free Selection Is
Cincinnati -7½
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Kenny Towers

FREE PLAY FOR SATURDAY - WESTERN KENTUCKY +3 over Ball St
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BIG AL

Our complimentary selection for Saturday, Sept. 22 is:

Tennessee Volunteers +3.5 over Florida Gators
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Mike Williams
NCAA-F | Sep 22, 2018
Navy vs. SMU
1* on Navy -6 -110
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Kyle Hunter
NCAA-F | Sep 22, 2018
East Carolina vs. South Florida
OVER 67

*3 Star Free Play* South Florida and East Carolina is a matchup of two teams both ranked in the top 30 in the nation in tempo. South Florida showed what they are capable of on offense against Georgia Tech earlier this year. The Bulls have a good fit at quarterback in Blake Barnett. Sterlin Gilbert's system is designed to get players into open space and move with extremely fast tempo.

East Carolina's defense has been awful the last two years. I don't see any reason to expect big improvements from them. Their numbers so far this year look better, but they have played NC A&T and North Carolina (who was missing a bunch of key players due to suspension). East Carolina's defense isn't likely to be able to do much to slow USF down here.

The USF defense is much weaker in the front seven this year. The Bulls have allowed 5.34 yards per carry this year. East Carolina will keep the tempo quick in this one, especially since they will likely be playing from behind all along.

Look for a big number from South Florida and East Carolina should contribute enough to get this past the posted total. Take the over.
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Steve Janus

1* Free Sharp Play on Missouri +15 -110

My money is on the Tigers to cash in a cover at home against the Bulldogs. Georgia has covered their last two games and the one that sticks out to the public is the 24-point win as a mere 8.5-point favorite at South Carolina. I think it has the Bulldogs way overvalued here on the road against a very talented Missouri team. The Tigers have a potent offense that I believe will be able to move the ball on this Georgia defense and with the help of the home crowd, I think the defense can make enough plays to keep this a lot closer than most are expecting. Give me Missouri +15!
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Vic Duke
NCAA-F | Sep 22, 2018
South Carolina vs. Vanderbilt
South Carolina-2½ -110
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John Ryan

NCAA-F | Sep 22, 2018
Stanford vs. Oregon
Stanford-130

The Play and the Matchup
Stanford (355)
STANFORD (3 - 0) at OREGON (3 - 0)
Week 4 Saturday, 9/22/2018 8:00 PM

SIM grading and Recommended Strategy
5 stars on the Stanford Cardinal on a 3 to 10-star grading scale.
Currently, Stanford is priced as 2.5-point road favorites in this PAC-12 tilt.

SIM Projections and Results
Projection summary calls for Stanford to pass for a minimum of 250 passing yards and will average 8 or more yards-per-pass attempt. In past road games where Stanford has met or exceeded these KPIs, they have gone 5-0 ATS.

Here is a supporting DB situational query. Playing against home where the line is between -3 and +3 after a game where they covered the spread by 28 or more points total over their last three games has produced a solid 37-11 ATS mark for 77% winners.
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TRACE ADAMS

Hurricane Florence kept both N.C. State and Marshall from their scheduled games last weekend, so no excuses when it comes to rest. Truth be told, both were likely to take it on the chin last weekend, as State had West Virginia to contend with, while the Herd had a game at South Carolina on their card.

Huge quarterback edge to N.C. State in this game, as Ryan Finley is an experienced senior, while his counterpart Isaiah Green is a redshirt frosh who will get his first real taste of a "big" game, after warm-up wins against Miami-Ohio, and Eastern Kentucky.

N.C. State was slow to get things going in last year's meeting, as they trailed 20-10 before scoring the final 27 points to win it 37-20, but fail the spread as they -23 point chalk. Still, that win improved the Wolf Pack to 4-0 lifetime with an average winning margin of 10 1/2 points, as State is 3-1 against the spread in those games. The 'Pack is also on a 9-2-1 run their last 12 dating back to 2014 in the role of road favorite, while the Herd is just 4-8-1 versus the spread at Edwards Stadium since 2016.

After both schools likely avoided their first losses last weekend, one of them does indeed take their first loss this weekend - that would be Marshall, while the other - that would be N.C. State keeps their record clean.

Go ahead and lay the road wood with N.C. State on Saturday night in Huntington, West Virginia.

4* N.C. STATE
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JEFF BENTON

Your Saturday comp play is Northern Illinois plus the points as they pay a visit to a Florida State team that is having a confidence crisis.

New coach Willie Taggart's team does not appear to have grasped what the coaching staff is trying to do, and their 0-3 spread mark along with their 15.3 points per game scoring average does suggest that they will not be able to pull away from this Huskies team that has made "hay" for their backers when installed in the road dog role going 18-6-1 in that role their last 25 tries.

Northern Illinois is 1-2 straight up, but that are coming off a win over Central Michigan, and have already tangled with the likes of Iowa and Utah, so do not look for Rod Carey's team to be intimidated by this visit to Tallahassee.

Until I see concrete evidence that the Sems can actually grasp what Taggart and his staff are trying to do, there is no chance I would lay any points with a team that cannot score the football.

Take the Huskies plus the points.

2* NORTHERN ILLINOIS
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TOMMY BRUNSON

It's now for real for Mario Cristobal and his Oregon Ducks, as the Web-Foots have been able to have their way against Bowling Green, Portland State and San Jose State, scoring 155 points in racking up those wins.

Now they face the # 1 scoring defense in the nation in visiting Stanford, as the Cardinal come into Eugene having allowed ONLY 23 total points in wins over San Diego State, USC and UC Davis.

Last year, Stanford limited Oregon to only one touchdown in their 49-7 rout - that game held Under for the first time in 4 years.

The Ducks have been known for their offense in the past, and thus far early in the season, but they are not playing the Little Sisters of the Poor this Saturday night. Stanford coach David Shaw is among the best in the game at playing to his team's strengths, while taking away what the other team does best.

I expect the Cardinal to hold onto the football for huge chunks of time and keep the Ducks from piling up points.

Stanford-Oregon Under.

1* STANFORD-OREGON UNDER
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CHRIS JORDAN

You would think oddsmakers in Las Vegas would understand just how much better the UNLV Rebels are this season. And with a two-game win streak, and the best start in the four years coach Tony Sanchez has been there, there is no way the Rebels lose this game to Arkansas State by more than a touchdown - let alone 8 1/2 points.

With the Lightning Lexington Thomas out of the backfield, leading the No. 3 rushing attack in the nation, I honestly don't know how the Red Wolves are going to slow things down with the 96th-ranked rushing defense and 92nd-ranked stop unit overall.

UNLV - which has covered seven of its last eight road games dating back - is rumbling for damn near 350 yards per game, the offense ranks 44th in the country, and the Rebels have shown vast improvement from previous years.

This is a cultivated culture Sanchez has created, and it is by far the best team he has had since he's been there when it comes to depth and everything surrounding the program. Thomas is the best he's ever been and he's been the best back the entire time the staff has been in place. The team has by far the deepest receiving corps and quarterback Armani Rogers is progressing to become a very good quarterback for UNLV.

Sure, defensively the team has room to grow athletically, but they're doing a real good job of playing hard and playing together.

The Red Wolves, who have failed to cover four of their last five non-conference games are eight of their last 11 September games, struggle with mental mistakes. They rank 128th in the country with 11 penalties per game and 127th in the nation with 101.33 penalty yards per game. Their red-zone offense is 121st in the nation, while their red-zone defense is 97th among the 129 FBS teams.

I like this underdog line, and I'm releasing this game early so you can catch a good number, since I think it'll drop. Play the Rebels.

5* UNLV
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RAY CHADWICK

TCU was game in their showdown in Arlington last Saturday night against Ohio State, but things got away from them in that short stretch in the second half, and they were never able to recover in their 40-28 setback.

That same night, Texas was busy bullying the Trojans of USC in Austin, 37-14. That after Tom Herman's team narrowly escaped against Tulsa, 28-21 the week before. Not so sure I am buying into the Longhorns blowout of the Trojans, as SC appears to be in a bit of a down mode without Sam Darnold guiding them this season.

The Horns are looking for some major revenge in this late-day contest, as the Horned Frogs have certainly had their way with the Longhorns of late, as they have won and covered each of the last 4 series meetings, and they have done so in convincing fashion.

Last year it was 24-7 in favor of TCU. 31-9 the season before in Austin, 50-7 in 2015, and 48-10 back in 2014. As you can see, NONE of the meetings have been close!

Yes, Tom Herman did go 5-1 versus the line last year when his team was getting points, but that one loss came against TCU, and it should also be noted that Gary Patterson has covered 4 of his last 6 as the road favorite since last year.

The Longhorns are itching for revenge, and the talent gap is closing, but I prefer the Horny Toads to bounce-back after their loss to the Bucks, as they make it 5 in a row over Texas this afternoon.

4* TCU
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ERIC SCHROEDER

Let's look at Saturday's college football matchup between the New Mexico State Aggies and Texas-El Paso Miners. Now, I get it, the Miners are bad. They are really bad. But they've also taken their lumps, and could very well be due for a win, if only they had the right patsy coming to Sun Bowl Stadium.

Enter the Aggies.

New Mexico State is 0-4. It has scored 7, 10, 13 and 25 points. The defense has allowed 29, 48, 60 and 42 points. That's an average final of 44.75-13.75. That's a difference of 31 points.

The Miners lost at home to Northern Arizona when the season opened, then lost consecutive road games at UNLV and Tennessee.

There is nothing pretty about the stats: the Miners rank 128 out of 129 with their offense, they ranks 103rd on D and they can't stop the run. But, there are some high points, like the defense that limits passing yards (ranking 21st in allowing 165.7), the red zone defense (ranking 33rd) and special teams that ranks 16th with kickoff returns.

But New Mexico State is not that much better - at all. The Aggies have the 126th ranked offense, and has the third-worst rushing offense, which gives UTEP a reprieve. The passing offense is 91st, so if the Miners are better at stopping the pass, that makes things easier.

The aforementioned Aggies' scoring defense is 126th in the country, while the red zone offense is 124th and time of possession is 122nd.

If the Miners are getting one win this season, it'll be in this game. They have Texas-San Antonio on deck, but it's at the Alamo. The schedule won't get any easier than this week.

Take the home pup.

4* UTEP
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JACK BRAYMAN

My free winner takes us to Saturday's SEC game between Georgia and Missouri, as I'm laying the road chalk with the second-ranked Bulldogs. It took about a week too long, but the national voters have finally woke up on Georgia.

The Bulldogs arrive at Mizzou's Memorial Stadium after Jake Fromm threw three touchdown passes and Elijah Holyfield ran for 100 yards, each playing only the first half for Georgia against Middle Tennessee State.

Georgia led the Blue Raiders 42-7 at halftime. From there the starters took the day off, as it was an impressive first-half warmup for the Bulldogs' stretch of seven straight Southeastern Conference games, beginning Saturday at Missouri.

Freshman Justin Fields, who ran 15 yards for a touchdown in the first half, came out of the bullpen to relieve Fromm and threw a touchdown pass, while Jeremiah Holloman caught three passes for 90 yards, Mecole Hardman had a touchdown catch and a 70-yard punt return touchdown, and Tyler Simmons had a 56-yard touchdown run.

That high-powered offense that could find very well find itself atop the poll is Alabama slips at all, is going to be too much for the Tigers, even in Missouri. I don't care that Mizzou beat up on Tennessee-Martin, Wyoming and Purdue (in a game the Tigers coiuld have lost), the fact is this team is going to have problems stopping the 14th best rushing offense, and the fourth-best pass efficient offense. The Dawgs also rank 19th on the scoreboard.

But here's the scary part, on the other side of the ball Georgia ranks seventh overall with the 24th-best rushing defense and 19th passing yards allowed in the nation.

Balance on both sides, as Georgia wins by three touchdowns.

5♦ GEORGIA
Based on ratings 1♦ to 5♦

5* GEORGIA
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Sports Book Edge
Kevin 'Bubba' Smith
'Railside' Harry MLB Expert
#325/6 UConn & Syracuse Over
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Priority Sports Info
Roy Maddux
#326 Syracuse
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