CFL Betting News and Trends For Week 6

Thursday CFL Betting Preview
Saskatchewan Roughriders vs Hamilton Tigercats

Week 6 of the CFL season kicks off on Thursday with a rematch from Week 4 between Saskatchewan and Hamilton. Both teams had a bye in between so it's not a “true” home-and-home, but after Saskatchewan won that first meeting 18-13 two weeks ago closing as 6-point home underdogs, you'd better believe that Hamilton has been anxiously waiting for their opportunity at redemption these past 14 days.

Will the Tigercats get it done?

And more importantly, will they get it done in a big way to cover this big number they are laying?

BetDSI.eu Odds: Hamilton (-10.5); Total set at 51

Saskatchewan won that first meeting despite getting outgained by nearly 200 yards through the air, sticking with their QB rotation (Brandon Bridge and David Watford), and really not getting much of anything done offensively outside of a decent run or two. But a fumble return TD always helps and with a defense that clearly was in bend but don't break mode, Saskatchewan found a way to get the job done. A result like that isn't really sustainable long term though and with Saskatchewan sticking with their QB rotation in all likelihood again this week, they have got to hope at least one of them catches fire to even have a chance at sweeping this series.

But what may be more worrisome for the Riders this week is the fact that for as good as their defense was two weeks ago in shutting down Hamilton, that Riders defense didn't travel with them on the plane for their only other road game this year.

Saskatchewan's lone game as visitors in 2018 was a 40-17 beatdown by the Ottawa Redblacks back in Week 2 and I believe we get a similar result here this week. Hamilton has had two full weeks to review the film of what did/didn't work in that first meeting, adapt accordingly, and hopefully execute at a much higher level back at home. Hamilton's lone home game this season was a 31-17 beating of Winnipeg, so scoring 30+ should come rather easily for the Tigercats here. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see them approach that 40 number that Ottawa hung on this Saskatchewan team away from home. Hamilton's offense did bounce back once already this year after a bad Week 1 performance in Calgary (28-14 loss) by putting up 38 points the next week, and it's that type of offensive output I'm expecting from the Tigercats this week.

Therefore, if you want to lay the points with Hamilton, I say go ahead. I was hoping (and still am) that this number creeps into the single digits so I'd feel more comfortable laying the chalk and a 10-point victory would be enough to cash, but for the side at the current moment, it seems more like a very sharp line that could land a point or two on either side. But thanks to the CFL being an 'under' bettor's haven the past two weeks (1-3 O/U in Week 4, 0-3 O/U in Week 5), this total has come in at 51 again and it's that number that I'm looking to cash on.

'Over' bettors in the CFL can't help but be a little gun shy at the moment with the 1-6 O/U run the league is on, but if you're of the mindset of “waiting to see something first from any particular offense” (especially Saskatchewan in this case) before betting an 'over', that's when you get left behind and it ends up being too late. Personally, I'm looking to stay ahead of the curve here and play on the high side of this total simply because of how the game script should play out here.

Hamilton is going to look to jump all over this Saskatchewan defense right away, put up big points on them early (like Ottawa did) and then cruise the rest of the way to win. Saskatchewan's offense will have no choice but to take plenty of shots down the field if that's the case and that will either lead to points for the Riders or short fields for the Tigercats. Saskatchewan's QB's on an individual level aren't happy about this splitting time ordeal and the only way to really put an end to it is to go out on the field, take some chances and cash in. Both Bridge and Watson have to be of that mindset here – especially as a double-digit underdog – and no matter if it turns out great for Saskatchewan or a disaster, chances are we will see points scored.

So while many are already looking to the low side of this total based on the previous meeting between these two, the league-wide trends of 'unders' hitting, and the idea that Saskatchewan's offense can't be trusted, I'll gladly take the value in going against the herd mentality (that's already pushed this number 0.5 points lower) and look for a high-scoring, entertaining, 35-25 type win for Hamilton. Remember, Saskatchewan's lone road game easily cashed an 'over' ticket, as did Hamilton's lone home game this year. This meeting won't be any different.

Best Bet: Over 51 points

With only three games on the CFL slate last week, the UNDER on the total line was the best bet with the books given that all three contests turned into low-scoring affairs.

Calgary remained perfect on the year both straight-up and against the spread with Thursday’s 27-3 victory against Ottawa as a three-point road favorite.

On Friday night, Edmonton squeaked past Toronto 16-15 as a 9 ½-point favorite at home and on Saturday the British Columbia Lions knocked off Winnipeg 20-17 as a 4 ½-point home underdog.

Thursday, July 19

Saskatchewan Roughriders (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS) at Hamilton Tiger-Cats (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS)
Point-spread: Hamilton -11
Total: 51 ½

Game Overview

This will be the second meeting in an extended home-and-home series after Saskatchewan beat the Tiger-Cats 18-13 on July 5 as a six-point home underdog. The total stayed UNDER 51 points in that victory and it has stayed UNDER in three of the Roughriders’ first four games. Brandon Bridge and David Watford were ineffective throwing the ball against Hamilton with a combined 148 yards passing. However, the Roughriders did rack-up 150 yards rushing on 23 carries.

Hamilton dropped to 2-2 (SU and ATS) with that loss after posting back-to-back victories against Edmonton on the road and Winnipeg at home in its previous two games. The total has stayed UNDER in three of the Tiger-Cats first four outings. Jeremiah Masoli was able to move the ball through the air against Saskatchewan in that first meeting with 333 total passing yards, but he could not get his team into the end zone. He is currently second in the CFL in passing with 1,378 yards through his first four games.

Betting Trends

-- Saskatchewan has won four of the last five meetings both SU and ATS with the total staying UNDER in four of the last five meetings in Hamilton.

Friday, July 20

British Columbia Lions (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS) at Ottawa RedBlacks (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS)
Point-spread: Ottawa -6 ½
Total: 53 ½

Game Overview

The Lions are coming off a split both SU and ATS in a recent home-and-home series against Winnipeg as part of their 2-2 record both ways on the year. The total stayed UNDER 55 points in Saturday’s upset against the Blue Bombers after going OVER the closing line in two of BC’s first three games. Travis Lulay got the call at quarterback in Week 5 and he responded with 326 yards passing with one touchdown throw against one interception. He completed at least one pass to eight different players.

Ottawa’s two losses this season have come against Calgary on the road and at home. It has also beaten Saskatchewan at home and Montreal on the road closing as a favorite. The total has stayed UNDER in each of its last three contests with a scoring average of 15.0 points per game. Trevor Harris looked awful in his two losses to the Stampeders, but he still has 915 yards passing and five touchdown throws in his first four games.

Betting Trends

-- Ottawa has a 4-2 edge both SU and ATS in its last six games against BC and the total has stayed UNDER in four of its last six home games against the Lions.

Saturday, July 21

Winnipeg Blue Bombers (2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS) at Toronto Argonauts (1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS)
Point-spread: PICK
Total: 50 ½

Game Overview

The Blue Bombers have scored at least 30 points in three of their first five games this season with the total easily going OVER in each of those contests. They opened the season with a tough 33-30 loss to Edmonton as seven-point home underdogs before waxing BC 41-19 at home in Week 4 as 6 ½-point favorites. Matt Nichols is back under center for Winnipeg and he threw for 214 yards with zero touchdowns and three interceptions in last week’s less than stellar performance.

Toronto lost the backend of its home-and-home series against Edmonton and it has now failed to score more than 20 points in each of its first four games. The total has stayed UNDER in all four contests. James Franklin got the start at quarterback against the Eskimos for an injured Ricky Ray. After throwing for 217 yards with one touchdown pass and one interception in Game 1 at home, he completed 26-of-36 passing attempts for 296 yards against Edmonton in last week’s loss on the road.

Betting Trends

-- The Argonauts have won 11 of the last 16 meetings against Winnipeg SU, but they have failed to cover in four of their last five matchups against the Blue Bombers. The total has gone OVER in four of those last five meetings.

Montreal Alouettes (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS) at Calgary Stampeders (4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS)
Point-Spread: Calgary OFF
Total: OFF

Game Overview

Montreal has already established itself as the worst team in the CFL this season on each side of the ball after winning just three games SU all last season. The Alouettes have complemented an offense that is averaging 15.3 PPG with a defense that is giving up 30.8 points a game. They are coming off a bye last week after losing to Ottawa at home 28-18 on July 6 as 7 ½-point home underdogs. The total has stayed UNDER in three of Montreal’s first four games.

At the opposite end of the spectrum in the CFL, Calgary is off to a perfect 4-0 start (SU and ATS) while winning each game by 10 points or more. The total has stayed UNDER in all four games behind a defense that has not allowed more than 14 points in any of those wins. The big concern for Saturday’s matchup as far as the actual betting spread is the playing status of quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell. He left last Thursday’s victory at Ottawa with an injured knee.

Betting Trends

-- Calgary has won its last five home games against Montreal SU, but it has failed to cover in six of the last seven meetings overall. The total has stayed UNDER in six of the last eight games between the two.

CFL
Long Sheet

Week 6

Friday, July 20

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BRITISH COLUMBIA (2 - 2) at OTTAWA (2 - 2) - 7/20/2018, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 57-33 ATS (+20.7 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1996.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 38-21 ATS (+14.9 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
OTTAWA is 2-2 against the spread versus BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
OTTAWA is 2-2 straight up against BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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CFL

Week 6

BC Lions (2-2) @ Ottawa (2-2) (-7, 53)— Teams split eight series meetings, going 2-2 in each city; over is 2-0-1 in last three series games. Home side won all four BC games this season; Lions lost 41-19/41-22 in visits to Winnipeg, Edmonton- both those games went over the total. Lions covered only one of last eight road games. BC allowed 17-10 points in their wins. RedBlacks split their first four games, losing twice to unbeaten Calgary, winning other two games by 23-10 points. Ottawa’s last three games stayed under total- under is 15-5-1 in their last 21 games overall.
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BC Lions vs. Ottawa RedBlacks Preview and Predictions 07-20-2018 in CFL

CFL Previews 17th July 2018 by Gracenote
by Gracenote on 07/17/2018

The BC Lions look to build off their memorable Week 5 win when they travel to the nation's capital to face the Ottawa Redblacks on Friday. Ty Long kicked a 16-yard field goal on the final play as the Lions erased a 17-point third-quarter deficit en route to a 20-17 victory against the Winnipeg Blue Bombers in Travis Lulay's first start at quarterback in nearly 10 months, and they hope to notch back-to-back wins for the first time in a year.

"This should be a great confidence builder," Lulay told reporters. "It could be a big win for us, but it's up to us to see how we respond to it." Ottawa is left to pick up the pieces following a 27-3 home loss to the Calgary Stampeders. The Redblacks were held without an offensive touchdown for the first time since Nov. 1, 2015 and hope to stay in the thick of the East Division race by earning their first victory in three meetings with the Lions. "It never feels good when you get your butt whipped and we did," Ottawa head coach Rick Campbell told reporters. "You have to have a short term memory and move on because the games are just going to keep getting bigger and bigger."

TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, TSN, ESPN Plus

ABOUT THE LIONS (2-2): Lulay hadn't played since suffering a knee injury against Montreal on Sept. 8, 2017, but looked like his old self as he threw for 326 yards and a touchdown en route to earning one of the CFL's Top Performers of the Week honours. Jeremiah Johnson, who leads the team in rushing yards (222), gained 26 on three carries before leaving the contest in the second quarter with an ankle injury and is doubtful for Friday's clash. Chris Rainey accounted for 114 yards from scrimmage in Johnson's absence and will be the feature back on Friday while All-Star linebacker Solomon Elimimian was placed on the six-game injured list with a fractured wrist.

ABOUT THE REDBLACKS (2-2): Trevor Harris was limited to 93 yards on 14-of-22 passing while William Powell, who rushed for a season-high 138 yards in the Week 4 win against Montreal, was held to 17 on eight carries in the loss to Calgary last week. Ottawa released cornerback Josh Johnson, who appeared in eight games for the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2016, and signed defensive backs Dejuan Butler and Tafon Mainsah on Tuesday. Offensive lineman Evan Johnson suffered a lower-body injury in the fourth quarter against the Stampeders, but is expected to recover in time to play on Friday.

EXTRA POINTS

1. BC has lost seven of its last eight road games.

2. Redblacks WR Greg Ellingson has caught at least one pass in 31 consecutive games.

3. Lions short-yardage QB Cody Fajardo has rushed for a touchdown in three straight games.

PREDICTION: Redblacks 27, Lions 23
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Saturday Week 6 CFL Betting Preview
Winnipeg Blue Bombers vs Toronto Argonauts

Week 6 of the CFL concludes with a double-header on Saturday and with no line out on the latter half of that in the Montreal/Calgary game because of QB injuries, many bettors have been focused on the Winnipeg/Toronto game that starts the proceedings.

Winnipeg has been receiving plenty of support all week as this line has been bumped up from a pick'em to -2.5, but is the line move correct and is it still worth a follow?

BetDSI.eu Odds: Winnipeg (-2.5); Total set at 52

This game is the first half of a home-and-home for these two teams over the next two weeks and for both sides it's the second consecutive home-and-home they've played. Toronto was able to get a split with Edmonton the last two weeks (2-0 ATS) while Winnipeg fell flat on their faces in the 2nd half against BC a week ago to split their set with the Lions too (1-1 ATS).

With nine teams in the entire league, you are often going to get quirky schedules like this and the downside to it all is that because they are quite rare, these games can be tough to handicap from a situational standpoint.

However, many handicappers don't seem to have a problem with backing Winnipeg this week as the line has been steadily climbing all week long. The Blue Bombers are the ones who come in with the better record (2-3 SU) and have looked like the better team for the majority of the season, but they are just 1-2 SU and ATS on the road this year and scored just 17 points in both defeats. Considering Toronto's defense has been one of the more stouter units in the league this year and are coming off back-to-back games of holding Edmonton's high-flying attack to 17 or fewer points, all the Winnipeg love ATS should be tempered a little bit. That's not to say I like Toronto plus the points, but at this point the side is not something I'm looking at in either direction.

The total of 52 has seen significant action as well after opening up at 51 as it appears as thouhg the majority of bettors believe we will see a bit of a shootout here. Considering Toronto is a perfect 4-0 to the 'under' this year that is a bit surprising, but the 'over' does make sense in conjunction with all the Winnipeg love, as bettors that love the Blue Bombers to go out and win this game expect that the most likely way that happens is in a higher scoring, 30-25 type contest. After all, both of Winnipeg's wins this year have seen them score 40+ points and if they can reach that mark this week, 'over' bets are likely going to cash.

Yet, I don't think we see that number even get a sniff this week as Toronto, at 1-3 SU, can't afford to fall even further behind in the standings and drop to 1-4. The Argos have to figure that with backup QB James Franklin making his third start, their chances of success in this game decrease the higher scoring the game becomes, and with a trip to Winnipeg ahead of them next week, maybe they don't fully expose all their cards here and play things closer to the vest.

Toronto's got one of the best all-purpose RB's in the CFL in James Wilder Jr and he's yet to really put his stamp on any one of the Argos games this year. Considering Wilder could be the guy that can continually move the chains, help control the clock and keep Winnipeg's offense off the field, I'd look for him to be featured early and often for Toronto, especially with the weather report calling for plenty of wind at BMO Field on Saturday. Wind is the biggest detriment to 'over' bets and with one end of that stadium largely exposed to strong wins being on Lake Ontario, the passing attacks of both teams could be in some trouble.

So I'm actually going to the low side of this total as I think this game could see plenty of running the ball which in the CFL means a lot of three-and-outs and a more field possession type contest. Both defenses can step up and plug holes if that's the case, and with Toronto cashing 'under' tickets at a perfect clip so far in 2018, I wouldn't say this week is the best time to buck that trend.

Next week in the return match in Winnipeg is probably the better 'over' option (depending on how this week goes), but with the 'under being the minority side this week and both teams looking to keep some tricks in the bag with a return meeting next week, don't be surprised to see this game finish in the mid-40's.

Odds per - BetDSI.eu

Best Bet: Under 52 points

Winnipeg Blue Bombers vs. Toronto Argonauts Preview and Predictions 07-21-2018 in CFL

CFL Previews 18th July 2018 by Gracenote
by Gracenote on 07/18/2018

The Winnipeg Blue Bombers look to bounce back from their Week 5 collapse when they hit the road to battle the Toronto Argonauts on Saturday. The Blue Bombers were cruising along with a 17-0 lead late in the third quarter only to surrender 20 straight points in the 20-17 loss to the BC Lions, and hope to avoid dropping three consecutive road games for the first time since 2015.

"The sun is still shining and the world didn't end so we're ready for another week," Winnipeg quarterback Matt Nichols told reporters. "You have no time to feel sorry for yourself in this business." The Toronto Argonauts fell into the East Division cellar along with the Montreal Alouettes, following a 16-15 defeat to the Edmonton Eskimos last week. The Argonauts have been held below 20 points in three of their first four games and hope James Franklin, who was thrust into a starting role when veteran quarterback Ricky Ray suffered a serious neck injury in Week 2, can breathe some life into an offence - which is ranked last in passing touchdowns (two) and eighth in rushing yards (325). "We're still a work in progress," Toronto head coach Marc Trestman told reporters. "We need to be more consistent on offence and be able to finish a game."

TV: 4 p.m. ET, TSN, ESPN Plus

ABOUT THE BLUE BOMBERS (2-3): Nichols struggled in his second start since hurting his knee in training camp as he finished 17-of-28 through the air for 214 yards and three interceptions, including a late pick that led to BC's game-winning field goal as time expired. Andrew Harris continued to terrorize his old team as he rushed for 139 yards and a pair of touchdown against the Lions to pass Robert Drummond (6,706) for 17th place on the CFL's all-time rushing list. Defensive back Chris Randle and Maurice Leggett missed practice on Tuesday, but are expected to play against the Argonauts while running back Timothy Flanders returned to practice and could make his first appearance of the season.

ABOUT THE ARGONAUTS (1-3): Franklin completed 26-of-36 passes for 296 yards while S.J. Green hauled in 10 passes for 131 yards to move past Jeff Boyd (8,322) for 36th place on the league's all-time receiving yards list. Toronto signed running back/kick returner Dexter McCluster, who was named to the Pro Bowl in 2013, but he will likely wait another week to make his debut while linebacker Cassius Vaughn will be sidelined on Saturday with an undisclosed injury. Defensive lineman Dylan Wynn will miss Saturday's clash after he was handed a one-game suspension by the league for spearing Edmonton running back C.J. Gable late in the fourth quarter.

EXTRA POINTS

1. Winnipeg has won three of the last four meetings with Toronto.

2. Harris has rushed for four touchdowns in his last three games.

3. Argonauts K Ronnie Pfeffer has made a league-low three field goals.

PREDICTION: Blue Bombers 31, Argonauts 26
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Montreal Alouettes vs. Calgary Stampeders Preview and Predictions 07-21-2018 in CFL

CFL Previews 18th July 2018 by Gracenote
by Gracenote on 07/18/2018

The Calgary Stampeders look to keep their perfect record intact when they host the Montreal Alouettes on Saturday. Calgary routed the Ottawa Redblacks 27-3 in Week 5, but the win came at a cost as quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell left the game with a lower-body injury in the second quarter and is listed as questionable, meaning Nick Arbuckle could be in line to make his first-career CFL start.

The Stampeders have won eight straight meetings with the Alouettes in Calgary, including the last two matchups by a combined score of 81-19, and can improve to 5-0 for the first time since 1995 with another victory. The Alouettes look to bounce back from a 28-18 setback to Ottawa on July 6. The same problems continue to plague Montreal's offence as they were held below 20 points for the 11th time in the last 13 games and hope the return of quarterback Drew Willy from a neck injury can provide a spark as the Alouettes search for their first win in Calgary since July 1, 2009. "We're definitely not scoring points at the rate we need to be able to win football games," Montreal head coach Mike Sherman told reporters. "I always concerned and I'm sure you'd be the same way."

TV: 9 p.m. ET, TSN, ESPN2

ABOUT THE ALOUETTES (1-3): Jeff Mathews completed 18-of-30 passes for 280 yards and a touchdown in the loss to Ottawa, but will miss the next four to six weeks with a foot injury. Willy threw for 549 yards and three touchdowns in three games this season before going down with a neck injury in the win against the Saskatchewan Roughriders on June 30. Wide receiver Chris Williams, who leads the team in receiving yards (283), pulled his hamstring against the Redblacks and will miss Saturday's contest as will kick returner Stefan Logan (back).

ABOUT THE STAMPEDERS (4-0): Mitchell threw for 166 yards and a touchdown before taking a low shot to his knee, but still became the fastest quarterback to reach 60 wins as he achieved the feat in his 72nd start, besting Ken Ploen, who did it in his 78th. Defensive end Micah Johnson was named one of the CFL's Top Performers of the Week after he recorded two forced fumbles and three sacks in the win against Ottawa. "I don't necessarily keep up with it that much as far as individual weekly accolades go but it's awesome though," Johnson told reporters. "The feeling of hard work paying off and everything like that is awesome."

EXTRA POINTS

1. Calgary is allowing a league-best 9.5 points per game.

2. Mitchell is 60-10-2 in his CFL career.

3. Montreal has lost 10 of its last 11 road games.

PREDICTION: Stampeders 35, Alouettes 15
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