Betting news, trends, odds and predictions for Monday, January 15, 2018 from various handicappers and websites
Jacksonville at New England (CBS, 3:05 p.m. ET)
Jacksonville Road Record: 5-4 SU, 5-4 ATS, 4-5 O/U
New England Home Record: 7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS, 6-3 O/U
Line Movements: The Westgate Las Vegas Super Book sent out New England as an eight-point home favorite over Jacksonville and the number quickly jumped to -9. BookMaker.eu, a major offshore betting outfit, opened the Patriots -8 and that number has held steady but they adjusted to -8 (-115) within 30 minutes of posting. As of Sunday night, consensus is New England -9 and 5Dimes.eu is dangling Patriots -10 ½ (+115) for the daring bettors.
The SuperBook sent out a total of 45 ½ and that was pushed up quickly to 46 ½. BookMaker.eu opened 46 ½ and its already up to 47. As of 9:30 p.m. ET on Sunday, you can get as low as 46 at a handful of outfits and as high as 27 at the Wynn Las Vegas.
Head-to-Head: Since Jacksonville joined the NFL in the 1995 season as an expansion team, these two teams have met 11 times. New England has gone 10-1 straight up and 7-4 against the spread in those contests.
The most recent matchup took place in the 2015 regular season and New England blasted Jacksonville 51-17 as a 13 ½-point home favorite. Including this win, Patriots quarterback Tom Brady has gone 5-0 as a starter in his career against Jacksonville while the team has averaged 32 points per game.
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Betcha Didn’t Know: New England has won 19 straight games (13-6 ATS) against opponents from the AFC South, which includes last Saturday’s Divisional Playoff 35-14 win over Tennessee. The ‘over’ has gone 14-5. Meanwhile, Jacksonville has dropped its last seven road encounters against opponents from the AFC East.
Playoff Notes: Including last Saturday’s win over Tennessee, the Patriots improved to 26-9 in the playoffs under head coach Bill Belichick. At Foxboro, the team has gone 18-3 SU and 12-8-1 ATS. The most recent home loss for New England came in the 2012-13 AFC Championship when Baltimore surprised the Patriots 28-13 as eight-point road underdogs. Since that setback New England has gone 2-2 in the AFC Championship game and they own a 9-4 overall record in the conference title game.
Including the two wins this season, Jacksonville owns a 7-6 SU and 5-8 ATS all-time record in the playoffs. The Jaguars have played in the AFC title game twice and they came up short in both games.
These teams have met four times in the postseason, the last encounter taking place in the 2007-08 playoffs when the Patriots captured a 31-20 win at home but they failed to cover as 13 ½-point home favorites. Overall, New England is 3-1 versus Jacksonville in the postseason and the home team has won all four games while the ‘under’ has produced a 4-0 mark.
Total Notes: The Patriots have watched the ‘under’ go 9-8 this season but the ‘over’ has posted a 6-3 mark in games played at Foxboro. Jacksonville has seen its totals produced a stalemate (9-9) through 18 games, which includes a 5-4 ‘under’ mark on the road. The Jaguars have watched the ‘over’ go 8-5 all-time in their 13 playoff games.
The highest total Jacksonville has seen in a game this season was 43, which occurred in Week 16 when it visited San Francisco. The ‘over’ easily hit as the 49ers and former New England QB Jimmy Garoppolo diced up the Jaguars 44-33 at home.
NFC Championship – History
Minnesota at Philadelphia (FOX, 6:40 p.m. ET)
Minnesota Road Record: 6-2 SU, 6-1-1 ATS, 4-4 O/U
Philadelphia Home Record: 8-1 SU, 6-3 ATS, 3-6 O/U
Line Movements: The Las Vegas Westgate SuperBook opened Minnesota as a three-point favorite (-120) but they removed the added juice and went to 3 ½ (EVEN) within the first hour. 5Dimes.eu started with Vikings -3.5 and have dropped to -3 (-120).
The SuperBook made a mistake with the total, sending out 40 and they adjusted quickly. Most shops are holding between 38 and 38 ½ points while Pinnacle is as low as 37 ½ (-115) as of Sunday night.
Head-to-Head: Philadelphia defeated Minnesota 21-10 in the 2016 regular season as a three-point home underdog. Prior to that matchup, the Vikings had won and covered the previous two meetings. Since 1992, the teams have met 10 times and Philadelphia is 7-3 overall while the total holds a 5-5 mark.
The Vikings defeated the Redskins 38-30 in Week 10, which snapped a three-game losing skid to opponents from the NFC East. Philadelphia has gone 4-1 at home in its last five games against NFC North foes, which includes the recent meeting between the pair in 2016.
Betcha Didn’t Know: Since the 1997-98 postseason, the NFC Championship has seen the road team favored four times and the visitor has gone 3-1 both SU and ATS in that role. The last team to win as a road favorite was San Francisco (-3.5) in the 2012-13 playoff when it rallied past Atlanta 28-24 in the Georgia Dome.
Playoff Notes: Minnesota’s wild 29-24 win over New Orleans in the Divisional Round was its first playoff victory since 2010. The Vikings haven’t captured a win on the road in the postseason since 2005, going 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS in their last three.
The Divisional round win on Saturday over Atlanta also snapped a playoff drought for Philadelphia. The Eagles were 0-4 in their previous four playoff games and two of those losses came at home.
The Vikings and Eagles have met twice in the playoffs and Philadelphia won and covered both of those games, 27-14 at home in 2005 and 26-14 at the Metrodome in 2009. The ‘under’ cashed in both games.
Total Notes: Minnesota saw its total results (4-4) break even on the road in the regular season while Philadelphia watched the ‘under’ cash in six of nine home games. Only three of nine opponents were able to score 20-plus points on the Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field this season. Minnesota led the league in scoring defense (15.8 PPG) but the home numbers (12.5 PPG) were much better than the road production (19 PPG). The Eagles have seen the ‘under’ cash in their last three playoff games. Two of the last three in the postseason for Minnesota have gone to the low side.
The Vikings had three totals in the regular season close in the thirties and the ‘over’ went 2-1 in those games. This total will be the lowest number that Philadelphia has seen all season, as it enters this game on a 3-0 ‘under’ run.
AFC Notes - Jags at Pats
The New England Patriots have had plenty of challengers to their throne over the course of the last several seasons, but most comers end up bowing out gracelessly.
The AFC South had been dominated by the Colts and Texans over the course of the last decade, and that left the Titans and Jaguars out of the playoffs most seasons. Tennessee made a big stink about the fact that New England didn't know anything about it. The results, though, were exactly the same.
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars have a different fate when they pay their first visit to Foxboro in the playoffs since the Patriots were nearly perfect in the '07 season?
No Luck in New England
Last week, the Jaguars had a lot of confidence against the Steelers after pounding them into submission back in Week 5. They have had a great history in Pittsburgh and walked out of Heinz Field with yet another victory.
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Gillette Stadium, though, is a totally different animal. The Jaguars have never won in this building, and in fact, they're only 1-10 all-time against the Patriots regardless of the venue.
Super Bowl Shufflin'
The Robert Kraft/Bill Belichick/Tom Brady Patriots have a history of beating the snot out of teams that aren't ready for this moment. Already this season, we've seen New England dismiss Marcus Mariota in his first season in the playoffs, and now, it can do the same to Blake Bortles this week.
There is only one man who has beaten the Patriots in their history in the playoffs while playing in his first ever postseason, and you have to go back to 1985 to find him. The Super Bowl Shufflin' Chicago Bears were led by a first-time playoff quarterback in Jim McMahon, and he's the only man to beat the Pats while playing in his first year in the postseason.
All Over the Under
The playoff history between these two teams has been an interesting one. The Jaguars actually have a win over the Pats in the second season, but you've got to go back to the Drew Bledsoe days to find that win in 1999. This is going to be the fifth all-time meeting of these teams in the playoffs, a stunningly high number of meetings considering the fact that the Jaguars have only been around for two and a half decades.
The common thread in these games is the under. All four postseason duels between these two sides failed to reach the total, and three of the four games didn't get beyond 35 points.
Do You Believe in Miracles?
Coming into this season, the AFC had never had a team win three games or fewer the previous season and reach the AFC Championship Game the next year.
No more.
The Jags are the second team since the merger to reach a conference championship game after winning three games or fewer the year prior. The only other team to do so was the 2006 New Orleans Saints who, of course, went on to win the Super Bowl.
Jaguars vs. Patriots Playoff History
2008 (at New England): Patriots 31, Jaguars 20 (Jaguars +13.5 / Under 51.5)
2006 (at New England): Patriots 28, Jaguars 3 (Patriots -7.5 / Under 37.5)
1999 (at Jacksonville): Jaguars 25, Patriots 10 (Jaguars -8.5 / Under 41)
1997 (at New England): Patriots 20, Jaguars 6 (Patriots -6.5 / Under 44)
Jaguars vs. Patriots Opening NFL Odds
Jaguars at Patriots (-8, 47)
NFC Notes - Vikings at Eagles
The Minnesota Vikings and the Philadelphia Eagles were both faced with some major adversity in the late stages of their Divisional Round playoff games. Like true winners, they were able to fight through their opposition and win their games by a matter of inches on both accounts to get into the NFC Championship Game.
Now, Case Keenum and Nick Foles make one of the most improbable quarterback battles in a conference championship game in NFL history.
The Wide-Open NFC
Since 2003, there are only four teams who have hosted the AFC Championship Game. The NFC? Definitely far from that boring.
Since 1991, 14 of the 16 teams in the NFC have played in the Super Bowl. The only ones that haven't? The Lions and the Vikings.
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What better way to finally crash into the Super Bowl for the first time in over four decades than to do so when the game is in your own stadium? The Vikings would become the first team in NFL history to play in the Super Bowl in its home stadium.
Flying Away from Minnesota
The Eagles don't exactly have the greatest playoff history in the world, but one team they have historically done very well against in the postseason is Minnesota. These two teams have met three times in the playoffs, most recently in 2009. The Eagles are 3-0 SU and 2-0 ATS in those three games, winning all three by double-digits.
This is going to be the first time that the Eagles have played against Minnesota at home since the '05 playoffs, a game that was won 27-14.
The Vikings, meanwhile, haven't had any luck playing outdoors in the playoffs in recent history. They haven't won an outdoor playoff game since the '04 playoffs in Green Bay, going 0-3 since that point.
The New Kids on the Block
Keenum has only made one playoff spot in his career, and all he did in that one game was hit Stefon Diggs for a 61-yard touchdown on the final play of the game to pull off an improbable comeback.
Keenum will be remembered most for his relatively lucky touchdown pass to Diggs, but let's remember when he left the field 1:34 left in the game, and had the Vikings ahead 23-21. Effectively, he had to win that game twice.
Foles has started in two playoff games in his career. He was beaten in his first playoff game when he was Chip Kelly's hand-chosen quarterback for his offense. But here under Doug Pederson, Foles was fantastic, going 23-for-30 for 246 yards against the Falcons.
These two men are both playing in the biggest games of their career on Sunday, and it's shocking to believe that one of the two will be in the Super Bowl in a couple weeks.
Barking at Home
Philadelphia is the 15th home underdog in a conference championship game in NFL history. The Eagles don't exactly have history on their side, knowing that home underdogs are just 6-8 SU and 6-7-1 ATS in the 14 previous examples.
That said, the last time a No. 1 seed was a dog at home in a conference championship game, the Broncos, who were also +3, beat the Patriots 20-18 at Mile High in the 2016 AFC Championship Game.
Vikings vs. Eagles Playoff History
2009 (at Minnesota): Eagles 26, Vikings 14 (Eagles -3.5 / Under 41)
2005 (at Philadelphia): Eagles 27, Vikings 14 (Eagles -7.5 / Under 47)
1981 (at Philadelphia): Eagles 31, Vikings 16 (No Line)
Vikings vs. Eagles Opening NFL Odds
Vikings at Eagles (+3, 38.5)