Notifications
Clear all

NFL Betting News and Notes Saturday, December 16th, 2017

3 Posts
1 Users
0 Likes
998 Views
(@shazman)
Posts: 57396
Member Moderator
Topic starter
 

NFL betting news, trends, odds and predictions for Saturday, December 16th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites

 
Posted : December 15, 2017 9:59 pm
(@shazman)
Posts: 57396
Member Moderator
Topic starter
 

Saturday's Essentials
December 15, 2017
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com

Chicago at Detroit (-5, 44), 4:30 ET, NFLN

One of Sunday’s biggest stories will be the return of Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers, who has to deal with the defenses of Carolina and Minnesota before a Week 17 trip into Detroit. That’s a far more taxing road than the Lions (7-6 SU, 6-6-1 ATS) face as they attempt to get to the final game of the regular season with playoff aspirations still intact, but no one is really talking about them. With a trip to Cincinnati coming up following this clash against the Bears (4-9 SU, 7-5-1 ATS), the path to a 10-win season, which would be the franchise’s third in seven seasons after none from 1996-2010, is well within reach.

The Lions have won five of seven on the road but have had tough luck at Ford Field, where they haven’t played since a 30-23 Thanksgiving day loss to Minnesota. That loss was their fourth in five home games. Detroit’s only win since claiming the season opener against Arizona came vs. Cleveland on Nov. 12. The five points they’re laying are the second-most they’ve been asked to cover since that 38-24 win over the Browns that they cleared as a 10-point favorite.

After blowing a 21-7 lead in Tampa Bay last week, Matt Prater connected on a 46-yarder with 20 seconds left to give the Lions their first win since beating the Bears 27-24 on a Prater 52-yarder that held up when Chicago kicker Conner Barth missed a 46-yarder on the game’s final play. Matthew Stafford threw for 299 yards and a pair of scores against the Bears, who were missing top linebacker Danny Trevathan due to injury. In the three games he’s missed -- one due to suspension -- Chicago went 0-3 and gave up 27 points per game. Over the last two, the defense has held opponents to an average of 11 points and he’s had 10 tackles in each, so his presence alone should be a game-changer.

Following a two-game absence due to a neck issue he felt he could’ve played through last week, Ameer Abdullah returns to add another weapon to Detroit’s arsenal. Theo Riddick remains one of the NFL’s top receiving threats out of the backfield and tight end Eric Ebron comes off a career-best 10-catch, 94-yard effort in Tampa, so Stafford will have plenty of options in addition to the explosive receiving trio of Golden Tate, Marvin Jones, and rookie Kenny Golladay.

Detroit will be without center Travis Swanson due to a concussion and right tackle Rick Wagner for a second straight game because of a bum ankle. Guard Graham Glasgow will slide over to snap, while young guard Joe Dahl and vulnerable tackle Corey Robinson will fill in. Another starting guard, veteran T.J. Lang, is questionable due to a foot issue.

The defense is in much better shape with corners Nevin Lawson and Jamal Agnew expected to play and top pass-rusher Ziggy Ansah (ankle) also likely to go.

Bears rookie QB Mitch Trubisky threw for 179 and a score in his first game against the Lions, while Jordan Howard did the heavy lifting with 125 rushing yards on just 15 carries. He scored twice in last week’s 33-14 win in Cincinnati, gaining 147 yards on 23 attempts. Trubisky ran for a touchdown and threw for one, completing a career-best 25 passes for 271 yards.

The offense racked up a season-high 482 yards, while Howard went over the 1,000-yard mark, becoming the first back in franchise history to go over that clip in each of their first two seasons. With Tarik Cohen available as a game-breaker and Kendall Wright coming off a 10-catch day, the Bears are looking more formidable than their record indicates, especially with the defense generating sacks and turnovers.

“I think everyone is looking forward to some Saturday night NFL at this point of the season, and handles should be solid for these two matchups,” said Scott Cooley, spokesman for Bookmaker.eu . “Smart money is on the Bears right now as we’ve dropped the spread 1.5 points. The Lions aren’t exactly a sexy, public team while Chicago always has its public backers so we’ve definitely got some liability on the dog here. Currently, we have almost 75 percent of the money on the Bears.”

The public stance certainly ignores recent results in this series since Detroit has won eight of nine outright. Only three of those victories have come by seven or more points, so the Bears do tend to hang around and have dropped their last two visits to Ford Field by just a single point. The total is hovering around 43.5-44. The Week 11 game snapped a run of three straight ‘unders’ in the series. A Detroit win would clinch the OVER on their season win total (7.5). The Bears (5.5) would still have more work to do.

L.A. Chargers at Kansas City (PK, 46.5), 8:25 ET, NFLN

After winning a must-win game against Oakland on Sunday, the Chiefs (7-6 SU, 7-6 ATS) can just about wrap up the AFC West title with a tidy little bow by holding serve against the Chargers (7-6 SU, 7-5-1) here. A win wouldn’t be a clincher, but moves their magic number to one with games against the Dolphins and Broncos remaining. A loss doesn’t necessarily close the door on a division title or wild card for Kansas City, but certainly puts it in a bind.

Having already lost to the Chiefs once, the situation is dire for L.A., although finishing with the Jets and Raiders means it has hope regardless of what happens here. Thanks to their favorable schedules going forward, odds are great that the winner winds up as the AFC’s No. 4 seed, hosting the top wild card as the worst division winner.

Despite losing the first meeting at home by two touchdowns in Week 3, the Chargers are getting the nod as either a one-point favorite or a pick’em at Arrowhead. That’s a nod to the job they’ve done turning around a season where they opened 0-4.

Los Angeles has won seven of nine and looking for its first five-game winning streak since 2014. The losses in that stretch came by one possession in both New England and Jacksonville. The last five wins have come by a combined margin of 152-53.

Because they’re often at a disadvantage at home in a soccer stadium accommodating them until a permanent home is found after their move from San Diego, the Chargers have grown accustomed to hostile environments. They’ve won three of their six true road games outright and are 4-1-1 against the number.

Four of L.A.’s six losses have come by three or fewer points, but it has given up an average of 9.7 points over its last three wins. The ‘under’ has prevailed in seven of eight Chargers’ games and if 4-1 over Kansas City’s last five. The first meeting, a 24-10 Chiefs win, came in below the posted total and featured only one second-half score, a 69-yard Kareem Hunt TD run that put the game away inside the 2:00 warning.

Hunt finished with 172 rushing yards, still the highest output of his rookie season which was fueled by the longest run of his pro career. After seven games without getting over the century mark, Hunt ran for 116 yards on 25 carries in last week’s win over the Raiders, climbing over 1,000 for the season and fueling hope that he’ll be able to close well. Following an amazing start that saw him find the end zone six times in the first three games, Hunt reached the end zone last week for the first time since the first meeting against the Chargers back on Sept. 24.

The Chiefs have rediscovered their offensive punch since Andy Reid handed play-calling duties over to Matt Nagy, who has produced an average of 28.5 pints in splitting games against the Jets and Raiders. Throwing caution to the wind with an aggressive approach, Nagy has been innovative and has put his foot on the gas in calling for downfield pass and misdirection. We’ll see if that continues against the best defense he’s seen thus far since L.A.’s strength lies up front and will likely produce a persistent pass rush.

Alex Smith has thrown for an average of 317 passing yards over his last two games and broke off a 70-yard in the loss to the Jets. Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce have made plays, so he’s keeping his weapons happy after awful performances in losses to the Cowboys, Giants and Bills. He was sacked a season-high five times by the Chargers in Week 3, but still threw for two scores and didn’t turn it over. He’ll have to withstand the pressure he’s sure to face just as well.

Philip Rivers threw three picks against the Chiefs and has only tossed seven all season. He’s only had one game where he failed to fire a touchdown pass. Guess who that was against? He’ll be looking to make amends for that loss to Kansas City and continue in a rhythm that has seen him throw 10 TDs against just one interception since L.A.’s Week 9 bye. He’s already just 389 passing yards shy of 4,000 on the season and has thrown for 23 scores. Top wideout Keenan Allen has thrived with four consecutive 100-yard receiving games, catching 39 passes for 547 yards in that span.

With CB Marcus Peters back from suspension, Kansas City’s secondary has a fighting chance to slow Allen and a receiving corps that finally healthy and intact with Mike Williams in the mix and TE Hunter Henry overcoming a hyperextended knee. L.A.’s primary injury concern is top corner Casey Hayward, who is dealing with a calf issue. The Chiefs won’t have center Mitch Morse and list disruptive Tamba Hali as questionable with a knee injury.

“There was a big swing in the late game as we immediately took sharp action on L.A. We were as high as Chargers -2, but recently got some respected Chiefs money so the spread has come back a half point,” Cooley said about what Bookmaker.eu was seeing as of Wednesday. “We’re 50-50 on the public money, but expecting to see more on that side as kickoff approaches.”

The Chiefs were 9/2 at Westgate to win the AFC West when the season began, while the Chargers were a little better regarded as a 9/4 choice behind the favored Raiders (5/4). Entering Saturday’s game, Oakland is 22/1 to win the division after last week’s missed opportunity, while Kansas City (10/13) was a slight favorite over L.A. (11/10). A Chargers’ win would move their season win total, currently pushing, to the OVER side. Kansas City’s number was placed at 9, so they have to win out to surpass it.

Kansas City has dominated this series, last losing on Dec. 29, 2013. The Chiefs have won seven consecutive games, including the last three at Arrowhead. In four of their losses, the Chargers have managed 10 or fewer points. The under is 5-2 throughout Kansas City's seven-game run. The total here is in the 46-47 range.

 
Posted : December 15, 2017 10:02 pm
(@shazman)
Posts: 57396
Member Moderator
Topic starter
 

Saturday's Best Bet
December 14, 2017
By Intertops

Saturday NFL Best Bet
L.A Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs

We've officially entered the time of the year where the NFL likes to schedule Saturday games and we've got two of them this week in Week 15 and two more next week in Week 16.

Why the NFL decides to do this during crunch time of the playoff chase is always going to be a mystery to me, because other than television ratings and trying to take viewership away from college football bowl games, it really doesn't make much sense.

However, with that being said, the NFL may have lucked out by scheduling this Chargers/Chiefs game in primetime on Saturday night as it's a battle for 1st place in the AFC West and it should be a highly entertaining contest.

Intertops.eu Odds: L.A Chargers (-1); Total set at 46

Like nearly all divisional games this late in the year this game is a rematch from the first meeting these two had back in late September.

Kansas City prevailed 24-10 that day as they took advantage of three INT's by Phillip Rivers and used RB Kareem Hunt to salt away the game with his 172 rushing yards on 17 carries. However, the 2017 season as been a tale of two seasons for both of these clubs as Kansas could do no wrong during the first six weeks of the year and the Chargers couldn't really do a lot right.

Since about mid-October though it's been a complete role reversal as the Chargers are one of the hottest teams in the NFL right now with a 7-2 SU and ATS record in their last nine games while the Chiefs have gone 3-6 SU and ATS in that same span. They both enter Saturday's game with identical 7-6 SU records and by virtue of that head-to-head win, KC currently sits in 1st place in the division.

With the two teams basically going in opposite directions right now (although KC did snap their four-game losing streak last week) it wasn't surprising to see the Chargers flipping over to the favorite after opening numbers originally had the Chiefs laying a point at some shops. Action is about split with a 55/45 percentage in favor of L.A, as bettors always prefer to back the team in current better form. I'm inclined to agree with the slight majority there as L.A can't afford to fall a game behind KC in the standings – essentially two games if they get swept by the Chiefs – with only two weeks remaining.

I believe Rivers is playing some of the best football in his career right now, and the Chargers pass rush on defense is ferocious. But placing that “must-win” label on the Chargers, and even the Chiefs for that matter should always be cause for concern from a betting standpoint, and with the spread in the range that it is, staying away from the side is what I'm going to do here.

The total of 46 is seeing about a 60/40 split in favor of the 'over' when you look at VegasInsider.com's betting percentage numbers right now and it's this number I'm looking to attack. Similar to the side where I'm inclined to agree with the slight majority, I 100% agree with the small majority on the total as this 'over' play fits my eye on numerous levels.

For one, the 'over' play fits the divisional rematch flip-flop angle for totals that I prefer to play this time of year after the first game stayed well below the number. This Chargers offense is astronomically better than the one that was stumbling and bumbling during the first four weeks of the year that KC saw, and Rivers isn't about to throw three INT's again. And in case you were wondering, flipping totals plays a week ago in divisional rematch games went 3-1 against the number.

Secondly, Kansas City has found a bit of their mojo again with two straight weeks of 26+ points and they aren't about to rely solely on their defense to win this critical game. In Chiefs games this year where the final score finished with 40 or fewer points the Chiefs are 1-3 SU with that lone win coming in the first meeting with the Chargers. Much of KC's success this year has been predicated on the offense producing points and in all seven of their victories this year they've put up at least 24.

L.A's defense has gone three consecutive weeks without allowing more than 13 points and they've yet to allow more than 26 in any game this year, but I do believe KC will find a way to come close to that 24-point tally here as they'll look to be aggressive from the get-go in this high stakes contest.

This game has all the makings of something like a 27-24 finish going either way with both teams pulling out all the stops to get a critical win. Both QB's are more than capable, and more importantly often willing, to be aggressive with their decisions when they've got to be, and both coaches will have no problem putting the game in either Alex Smith or Phillip Rivers hands.

It will all come down to who can execute that key play late and that's why rather than banking on one or the other to do so and get the W, I'll roll with the notion of both guys will have some success throughout this game and put the onus on the respective defenses to make a stop down the stretch.

Odds per - Intertops.eu

Best Bet: Over 46

 
Posted : December 15, 2017 10:11 pm
Share: