Covers' College Football Bowl Betting Bible: Book I - Capping Thy Coaches
By: Jason Logan
Each college football bowl season, select teams pack their bags and head off for their postseason matchup, giving sports bettors a fresh set of intriguing non-conference competitions. While there is an aura of the unknown when it comes to bowl teams – these programs don’t know much about each other – football bettors can find familiarity and value looking for teams in these certain situations.
We break down some of the important factors to figure into your bowl betting this December with our Bowl Betting Bible.
BOOK I: CAPPING THY COACHES
One of the biggest differences between wagering on college and professional sports is the impact of the coaching. In the college ranks, these coaches are the molders of young men and build a program from the bottom up, having a bigger influence on how the game is played. Oddsmakers factor coaching into the lines in college sports more than any other option.
That’s why it’s such a big deal when coaches are swapped out just before bowl season. Whether it be a coach taking a new job and leaving his former team in the hands of his assistants or a team firing its coach just before the postseason and pretty much hoping for the best in the bowl game. Bettors can find added value when handicapping the turnover on the sidelines.
“Teams and players often rally behind a new coach or departing coach, while other times players and teams are disappointed and provide a weak effort,” says Covers Expert Steve Merril.
Perhaps the biggest coaching change, as it pertains to bowl season, is Scott Frost leaving Central Florida for the job at Nebraska ahead of the Knights' showdown with Auburn as 9.5-point underdogs in the Peach Bowl. Central Florida was snubbed by the CFP committee, despite an undefeated record, and is hoping Frost will be on the sideline for this finale against a SEC power. As of mid-December, Frost is back with the team and running practices and looks like he will coach on New Year’s Day. But, should those plans fall through closer to kickoff, it will be interesting to see where the team’s head is at.
Another big-name coaching move this bowl season is Jimbo Fisher bailing on Florida State for Texas A&M, replacing Kevin Sumlin and putting interim coach Jeff Banks in charge of the Aggies (+3) versus Wake Forest in the Belk Bowl. Fisher’s former programs, the Seminoles, barely became bowl eligible after a disastrous season, and will now face Southern Mississippi in the Independence Bowl, giving 15.5 points to the Golden Eagles on December 27.
Long-time defensive line coach Odell Haggins will step in as interim coach for the bowl game. While Haggins commands a lot of respect, being with the programs since 1994, many of those FSU standouts have to be thinking about their place in new head coach Willie Taggart’s system in 2018. Even Haggins has to be polishing his resume, not knowing his future in Tallahassee.
Taggart left Oregon before its showdown with Boise State in the Las Vegas Bowl, and had Mario Cristobal in place as an interim for the bowl game. However, with so much support – especially from the Ducks roster - Cristobal was eventually promoted to head coach and is hoping to ride that momentum to a victory over the Broncos on December 16. Oregon opened -5.5 and is now giving 7.5 points in Las Vegas.
In a funny twist, Arizona State will have recently-fired head coach Todd Graham on the sideline for the Sun Devils' matchups with North Carolina State in the Sun Bowl. Graham was axed at the end of the year - replaced by former NFL head coach Herm Edwards - but he and his staff are hoping the players send them off as winners, despite oddsmakers pegging ASU as a 6.5-point underdog against the Wolfpack in El Paso, Texas.
Mississippi State takes on Louisville in the TaxSlayer Bowl on December minus head coach Dan Mullen, who leaves the Bulldogs for SEC rival Florida. That has interim Greg Knox running things this month as new head coach Joe Moorehead hits the recruiting trail and puts his staff together for 2018. Mississippi State is a 6.5-point underdog for this game at EverBank Field in Jacksonville.
Rounding out the coaching moves this bowl season is Chad Morris leaving SMU for Arkansas, with the Mustangs as 5-point faves versus Louisiana Tech in the DXL Frisco Bowl. Southern Methodist will look to interim coach Jeff Traylor, who will then go with Morris to the run the Razorbacks. So, who knows where his focus will be for this December 20 game in Frisco, Texas.
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Covers' College Football Bowl Betting Bible: Book II - Make money from motivation
By: Jason Logan
The names are different but the situations stay the same.
Each college football bowl season, select teams pack their bags and head off for their postseason matchup, giving sports bettors a fresh set of intriguing non-conference competitions. While there is an aura of the unknown when it comes to bowl teams – these programs don’t know much about each other – football bettors can find familiarity and value looking for teams in these certain situations.
We break down some of the important factors to figure into your bowl betting this December with our Bowl Betting Bible.
Check out Book I of Covers’ College Football Bowl Betting Bible, "Capping Thy Coaches".
BOOK 2: DO NOT PLACE MONEY WITHOUT KNOWING MOTIVATION
Bowl season is many things to many teams.
To some, it’s the culmination of a hard-fought season. To others, it’s a relief from years of losing. And to a few programs, it’s a reminder of missed opportunities and wasted potential. Understanding the mindset of a bowl team is paramount before placing any bets.
Which programs are just happy to be invited to a bowl game and which ones are actually serious about winning? The first step college football bettors should take when looking at potential plays, is to call out any teams disappointed with the bowl they’ve drawn. While some could lack motivation, this situation usually serves as motivation with a chip on the team’s shoulder.
With the implementation of the College Football Playoffs, there has been a new factor thrown into the bowl betting mix with teams sitting just outside the Final Four feeling the sting of the playoff snub heading into their respective bowl game. This time around, Big Ten champ Ohio State didn’t receive an invite, leaving football bettors to question how the Buckeyes players will react to this letdown.
Ohio State settles for a showdown with Southern Cal in the Cotton Bowl, despite winning the Big Ten Championship over then-undefeated Wisconsin. The Buckeyes were edged by Alabama – a one-loss SEC team that didn’t play for its conference title. Oddsmakers currently have OSU pegged as a 7.5-point favorite versus the Trojans in Texas.
Another team feeling disrespected this bowl season could be Central Florida, which finished the regular season 12-0 following a victory in the AAC Championship Game. The Knights were a long shot to squeak into the CFP Final Four but still held out hope of a playoff berth. Instead, UCF is playing Auburn in the Peach Bowl, getting very little respect from books and bettors. It opened +8.5 and is now up to a 9.5-point underdog in Atlanta on New Year’s Day.
Motivation just isn’t reserved for the big boys, though. Programs that barely qualified for bowl eligibility and still earned a berth in a postseason game can often times feel a sense of accomplishment. Covers Expert Art Aronson of AAA Sports calls these “Just glad to be there” teams.
“This might take some digging, but there are teams which are just happy to be aboard the gravy train,” says Aronson. “Coaches get a little more job security and players get to brag when they go home for semester break. With dozens of games, it’s a win-win for everyone.”
Littering the bowl season landscape are a number of six-win squads, that just barely qualified for postseason consideration: Western Kentucky, Georgia State, Middle Tennessee, Louisiana Tech, Temple, Texas Tech, Utah, Duke, UCLA, Florida State, Texas, Virginia, Navy, New Mexico State, and Utah State all made the bowl grade by the skin of their teeth. Football bettors should do a deep dive into how coaches, players, and even fan bases feel about their respective postseason contests.
Bettors must also measure the motivation of teams that are ending an extended bowl drought, and determine whether they're feeling a false sense of accomplishment – bound for a letdown – or using that big stage to push the program even further up the food chain.
The longest bowl drought being quenched this month is a 57-year bowl absence by the New Mexico State Aggies, making their first bowl appearance since 1960. The Aggies just became bowl eligible with a win in the season finale and now travel to Tucson to play Utah State in the Arizona Bowl on December 29. New Mexico State opened as a 3-point favorite but action against the Aggies has moved this spread all the way to NMSU +4.
The UAB Blazers will be pumped up for their first bowl appearance since 2004, when they face Ohio in the Bahamas Bowl on December 22. There is extra emotion rolling into this bowl appearance as well, as UAB’s football program was shuttered for two years before returning to action this season, finishing 8-4 SU and 8-3-1 ATS. Alabama-Birmingham is a 7.5-point underdog in Nassau.
Lane Kiffin has Florida Atlantic playing in its first bowl game since 2008, guiding the Owls to a 10-3 SU record (9-4 ATS). They face the Akron Zips as 22.5-point chalk in the Boca Raton Bowl, playing on their home field for this December 19 contest.
Other teams snapping bowl droughts this month are: Southern Methodist (2012), Arizona State (2012), Purdue (2013), as well as Missouri and Texas, who both haven’t been to a bowl game since 2014 and met in the Texas Bowl on December 27 with the Tigers set as field-goal favorites.
One of the most underlying motivational capping tools is finding a team playing in the same bowl as it did last season. The 2014-15 bowl schedule found Arkansas State back in the GoDaddy Bowl for the fourth straight season, losing to Toledo 63-44 as a 3.5-point underdog in Mobile, Alabama.
“Teams returning to the same minor bowl game they played in last year tend to become disinterested,” notes Covers Expert Marc Lawrence.
South Florida is back in the Birmingham Bowl for the second straight year, set as a 2.5-point favorite versus Texas Tech on December 23. The Bulls, who edged South Carolina in a wildly-entertaining 46-39 overtime victory in this bowl last season, could be a little flat after earning another trip to Alabama following a crushing loss to UCF in their regular season finale. On top of that, the bowl organizers somehow messed up the school’s name on the official game t-shirts, going with “South Florida University” instead of the proper title, “University of South Florida”.
Mike Leach and his Washington State Cougars are back in the Holiday Bowl, facing Michigan State as 2.5-point favorites. The Cougars lost to another Big Ten school, Minnesota, as 8.5-point chalk in San Diego last year. The venue switches to SDCCU Stadium in 2017 and Leach will be on the sideline for WSU after rumors he was in the running for the Tennessee job. He’s also in the hunt for a new contract extension.
Louisiana State makes its second straight stint in the Citrus Bowl on New Year’s Day, sitting as a field-goal fave to Notre Dame. The Tigers beat down Louisville and Heisman winner Lamar Jackson 29-9 as 3-point chalk. While this is a repeat bowl appearance, LSU doesn’t mind a spot on the January 1 schedule against the Fighting Irish.
And while it’s not a repeat in a particular bowl, Appalachian State and Toledo meet in a rematch of last year’s Camellia Bowl – a 31-28 win by the Mountaineers as 1-point favorites – when the connect for a December 23 date in the Dollar General Bowl. The Rockets are 7.5-point favorites in this rare bowl revenge spot in Mobile, Alabama.
Covers' College Football Bowl Betting Bible: Book III - The Waiting Game
By: Jason Logan
The names are different but the situations stay the same.
Each college football bowl season, select teams pack their bags and head off for their postseason matchup, giving sports bettors a fresh set of intriguing non-conference competitions. While there is an aura of the unknown when it comes to bowl teams – these programs don’t know much about each other – football bettors can find familiarity and value looking for teams in these certain situations.
We break down some of the important factors to figure into your bowl betting this December with our Bowl Betting Bible.
Check out Book I of Covers' Bowl Betting Bible: Capping Thy Coaches, and Book II: Money From Motivation.
BOOK III: TIME BETWEEN BOWLS GIVETH AND TAKETH AWAY
The Ravages of time. Idle hands do the Devil’s work. Time, time time… is on my side. YES IT IS!
All three famed phrases have everything to do with the time between a college football team’s final game of the regular season and its postseason bowl appearance.
Some programs are thrust right into the bowl schedule with a small break between the finale, finals and the bowl game. Other teams are collecting dust for almost a month while they prepare for their year-end showcase.
“The long layoff - several weeks - before the game is played can often lead to bizarre Over or Under-performance by teams involved,” says Covers Expert Steve Merril.
A team that gained momentum late in the year may not have that same mojo working for them in bowl season, thanks to the extended hiatus. Depending on the break between games, programs could be completely different come game day and that opens up a lot of value to go against, with oddsmakers setting these lines based on their past accomplishments.
The gap between the end of the regular season to the bowl game can be more than a month, so what difference does it make if a team won its last six in a row?” asks Covers Expert Art Aronson of AAA Sports.
A good example are the Central Michigan Chippewas, who finished the schedule on a five-game winning streak, becoming bowl eligible along the way and earning a ticket to the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. The Chippewas, who are sitting at a pick’em facing Wyoming on December 22, will have had nearly a month off between the bowl and their final game of the season.
Northwestern was one of the hottest teams in college football, closing the 2017 campaign on a seven-game winning streak and earning a spot in the Music City Bowl versus Kentucky. The Wildcats will have been off for more than a month when they take on the other Wildcats as touchdown favorites on December 29.
The gap between season finale and bowl game, however, can also work in a team’s favor. A late-season swoon or a rash of injuries toward the end of the year can be remedied by a few weeks off.
Auburn is hoping the lengthy hiatus can heal up star running back Kerryon Johnson, who is listed as question with a shoulder injury for the Tigers’ date with UCF in the Peach Bowl. Johnson, who rushed for 1,320 yards and a team-high 19 touchdowns, will have just about a full month to recover between the Tigers’ loss to UGA in the SEC Championship and that New Year’s Day bowl appearance. Auburn could also get linebacker Tre Williams back from a shoulder injury as well.
The bowl break has also allowed Boise State to return two key weapons on offense for its matchup with Oregon in the Las Vegas Bowl. Tight end Jake Roh and running back Alexander Mattison are expected to be back from ankle injuries, with the Broncos set as 7.5-point underdogs versus the Ducks on December 16.
Wyoming is hoping that month-long pause is enough to get quarterback Josh Allen back in working order for the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl against CMU. Allen passed for 13 touchdowns and ran in another five but injured his throwing shoulder on November 11 and missed the final two games of the season – both losses for the Cowboys.
Will Grier is hoping to be under center for West Virginia’s appearance in the Heart of Dallas Bowl, taking on Utah on December 26. Grier underwent surgery on his broken middle finger on his passing hand in late November and is doubtful for the Mountaineers’ postseason game. Grier, who passed for 3,490 yards and 34 touchdowns, was replaced by sophomore QB Chris Chugunov in the season finale loss to Oklahoma, completely just 10 of 20 passes for 137 yards.
The Marshall Thundering Herd did get too much downtime between the end of the season and their showcase versus Colorado State in the New Mexico Bowl on December 16, but it was enough of a break to get leading receiver Tyre Brady healthy. He’s caught 56 balls for 777 yards and 13 touchdowns this season. Marshall is a 5.5-point underdog to CSU.
And UCLA and top NFL Draft prospect Josh Rosen is likely to be on the field for the Bruins versus Kansas State in the Catcus Bowl on December 26. Rosen exited the season finale against Cal with a shoulder injury but the time off has allowed him to be ready for his final college outing.
While the bowl break has allowed those teams – and many others – to heal up, other programs are wishing the postseason game would just get here already. Every bowl season is plagued with news of player suspensions, from either academics or off-field issues, as well as player injuries suffered in the limited practices allowed during bowl prep.
Washington State cut top receiver Tavares Martin Jr. for a violation of team rules last week, leaving the Cougars without their two best outside receiving targets after fellow WR Isaiah Johnson-Mack decided to leave Wazzu and transfer to a school closer to his family in Florida.
Georgia linebacker Natrez Patrick was running the risk of being suspended for the Bulldogs’ Rose Bowl matchup against Oklahoma due to drug charges following UGA’s win in the SEC Championship. However, the charges were dropped and the team has yet to hand down any punishment. Patrick was suspended four games earlier this year for misdemeanor marijuana possession.
With finals over and classes done, as well as practices limited by NCAA rules, players don’t have the same structured schedule to keep them busy and out of trouble. And trips home over the holidays have been the catalyst for many suspensions with players getting into fights and violating team rules while visiting with friends and family.
Local media are usually the first sources to report on these issues, so keeping a close ear to the ground and anticipating either injury or disciplinary news is the best way to stay ahead of the bookmakers during the bowl break.