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NFL: Books Win Small In Week 14

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Books win small in Week 14
December 11, 2017
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

Las Vegas sports books got a bit of a break with the Baltimore Ravens (+6) covering the spread in their 39-38 loss at Pittsburgh, which helped most betting shops show a small profit on the day.

However, the big story Sunday was the Philadelphia Eagles (-1) possibly losing quarterback Carson Wentz for the season with an ACL injury suffered in their 43-35 win at the Los Angeles Coliseum against the Rams. The books lost a bunch on the decision, but the Wentz injury drastically changed the entire complexion of the NFC playoff race and the odds offered around town.

"We bumped the Eagles up to 10-to-1 to win after the injury and we'll review on Monday to decide where we go from there," said Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook VP Jay Kornegay shortly after the injury. "The NFC really is jammed packed with Super Bowl contenders on top and when you look at the other QB's in comparison to (back-up) Nick Foles you've guys like Case Keenum and Jared Goff. There's no Tom Brady-type in the NFC."

Korngay also noted Cam Newton and Drew Brees, but his point was that the NFC is deep and there are a lot of green QB's put at the forefront with just three weeks to go until the playoffs start. It's not such a crazy idea seeing the Rams, Saints or Vikings in the Super Bowl. But on Sunday morning, it appeared the Eagles were on their way which is why they the NFC's top choice to the Super Bowl at 4/1 odds. That's all up in the air now.

As for Sunday's Week 14 action, the books showed a small profit on the day thanks to the Ravens covering the spread that ran up from Pittsburgh being a 5.5-point favorite up to -6 by kickoff. After the first 13 games of the day it ended up being a grind for both the bettors and bookmakers.

"It was pretty much a wash with the Eagles covering," said MGM Resorts race and sports VP Jay Rood prior to the Steelers decision. "We needed the Eagles early in the week, but it flipped."

Large money had come in on the favored Rams pushing the number to as high as -2.5, but sharp money flooded the books with Eagles money making them as high as -2 by kickoff. In a playoff-type atmosphere in Los Angeles, the Eagles came away with the win aided by back-up QB Nick Foles making a few key throw to seal the win.

While the action was large on the Eagles-Rams game, one of the major books in town saw a slight dip in volume. "Handle was short this week from what we've been seeing, but that's typical when the rodeo is in town," said Rood.

The National Finals Rodeo basically takes over the Las Vegas Strip when their annual event comes to town, and it's a pretty cool vibe they bring all over the casinos, but the reality is that the crowd takes over a bunch of rooms and they don't bet the NFL as much a regular folks for some reason. However, Kornegay said he didn't see as much of a drop off as Rood who has 10 books lined up and down the prime strip.

"We (needed) the Ravens to show a small profit on the day, and the Steelers make us a small loser. But this has been the lightest action on a Sunday night game all season," said Rood.

CG Technology books and Station Casinos also reported a small win on the day thanks to the Ravens covers despite both chain of books also taking it on the chin with Eagles. Philadelphia is now sitting alone atop the NFC at 11-2 (10-3 against the spread) following the Panthers (+2.5) 31-24 home win over the Vikings (10-3).

The Vikings had covered their last seven games and won eight straight prior to the loss. In Week 15, they get to face the hapless Bengals who lost 33-7 at home in the Jungle to the Bears (+6), a game that turned out well for the house. MGM books had the Bears +230 on the money-line, the highest price among the five underdogs that covered on the day.

Favorites went 8-6 ATS overall and the 'under' cashed in eight of the 14 games.

"One of our biggest losses of the day was the Bills," said Rood. The Bills captured an improbable 13-7 overtime home win against the Colts (+3.5). The total dropped from 40 to 36 because of a wild storm in Buffalo where the snow kept piling on.

"I think it was one of those things that snuck up on us where both the sharps and us didn't realize the magnitude of how bad the weather actually was," said Kornegay. "We were monitoring the weather by the minute, but it was way worse than we expected. And the fact we didn't get a lot of sharp play on the 'under' shows they didn't realize it either."

The Jaguars 30-24 home win over the Seahawks (+2.5) turned out to be Station Casinos best win of the day. This was game between two stout defenses that had Jacksonville up 3-0 at the half making 'under' 40.5 look to be a great bet. But then the flood gates opened as the Jaguars used defense, special teams and offense to secure the win that was much large than the score indicates.

The biggest roar of the day from the sports book crowd was when the Packers (-2.5) scored a touchdown in overtime to win 27-21 at winless Cleveland (0-13). Sharps loved the Browns, again, and drove the number down from +3.5 to +2.5, but the public loved the Packers against the Browns. Most bettors would have their Packers bet by a hook had the Packers simply kicked a field goal in overtime to win, but the theme stayed true and Cleveland got the worst of it. With the Broncos 23-0 home victory against the Jets (-1), the Browns are once again the worst cover team in football at 3-10 ATS. The Broncos are now 3-9-1 ATS.

Other notes from Week 14 saw the 49ers win for the third time in four weeks and two straight behind QB Jimmy Garoppolo with their spirited 26-16 win at Houston. The Chiefs and Chargers stayed tied atop the AFC West at 7-6 with their wins as favorites and the Cowboy's buried the Giants (+3.5) in Eli Manning's return as the starter, 30-10.

Moving forward into Week 15 is the big question is about the health of Eagles QB Carson Wentz. The very thing we all love about Wentz is his toughness and willingness to throw his body around for a first down is the very thing that may cost him his season. In possibly his last play of 2017, he threw his body over the goal-line for a TD, but finally paid the price. Hopefully it all turns out well, but based on 10/1 adjusted Super Bowl odds, the Westgate is showing they believe he's done.

 
Posted : December 11, 2017 9:37 am
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