College football
2017-18 bowl games
December 16
Troy (-6) vs North Texas- New Orleans Bowl
Troy won its last six games, is 10-2 this year, with a win at LSU; Trojans have a 4-year starter at QB, are 2-1 vs spread in games with single digit spread. North Texas won five of last six games, losing C-USA title game at FAU Dec 2. Mean Green is 4-1 vs spread in games with single digit spread. Favorites won/covered three of last five New Orleans Bowls; Conference USA teams won last two. Troy won its last two bowls, is 3-3 all-time; North Texas lost three of last four bowls; they’re 2-6 all-time in bowls. C-USA non-conference underdogs are 8-23 vs spread this season; Sun Belt favorites are 1-2. Since 2014, C-USA teams are 10-4 SU vs Sun Belt teams, covering four of last six as an underdog vs Sun Belt foes.
Western Kentucky (-5) vs Georgia State- Auto Nation Cure Bowl, Orlando
Western Kentucky is 6-6 this year, after going 40-14 the previous four years; they allowed 30+ points in each of their last six games. WKU has a senior QB who has 41 career starts- they’re 1-5-1 vs spread as a favorite, 1-5 in games with single digit pointspread. Georgia State has a senior QB who is grad transfer from Utah; Panthers are 6-5 this year, scoring 10 or less points in all five losses- they’re 2-3 vs spread as an underdog, 4-4-1 in games with single digit spread. Hilltoppers are 3-1 in bowls, winning last three years while scoring 49-45-51 points, but with a different coach. Georgia State lost its only bowl 27-16 to San Jose State in this same bowl two years ago, which was the first Cure Bowl. C-USA non-conference favorites are 7-3 vs spread; Sun Belt underdogs are 14-13. C-USA favorites covered six of last seven games when playing Sun Belt teams.
Oregon (-7.5) vs Boise State— Las Vegas Bowl
Oregon scored 117 points in winning its last two games after soph QB Herbert got healthy; they’re 7-5 but their coach already bolted for Florida State. Ducks are 4-2 vs spread as a favorite this year, 2-2 in games with a single digit spread. Boise State has a junior QB who has made 36 starts; Broncos won eight of last nine games- they won MAC title, scoring 17 points in consecutive games vs Fresno. Boise is 2-0 as an underdog this year, 4-2 in games with single digit spread. Boise is 3-2 in its last five bowls; they won Las Vegas Bowl three years in row, from 2010-12. Oregon lost its last two bowls, 42-20/47-41; average total in their last three bowls: 76.3. Favorites won/covered last three Las Vegas Bowls; Pac-12 teams won their last three visits here. Last three years, Pac-12 favorites are 14-12-1 vs spread when playing Mountain West teams.
Colorado State (-5.5) vs Marshall— Gildan New Mexico Bowl, Albuquerque
Colorado State is 7-5, dropping 3 of last 4 games, losing 59-52 at home to Boise when they led 35-17 at the half; Rams are 0-6 vs spread in their last six games- they’re 3-5 vs spread as a favorite, 3-5 in games with a single digit spread. CSU has a senior QB who has started 38 games. Marshall lost four of its last five games, losing last two games by total of three points. Thundering Herd is 5-0 vs spread as an underdog this year, 5-1 in games with a single digit spread- they’ve got a junior QB who has 33 starts. Rams lost their last three bowls, allowing 44.7 ppg- average total in their last five bowls: 74- they lost 61-50 in the Potato Bowl LY. Marshall won its last five bowls, allowing 16 ppg; they’re 10-2 all-time in bowls. Rams won 27-24 here October 20. C-USA teams covered seven of last ten games with Mountain West foes.
Arkansas State (-4) vs Middle Tennessee State, Raycom Media Camellia Bowl, Montgomery, AL
Arkansas State split its last four games, losing 32-25 to Troy in Sun Belt title game; Red Wolves won a game 67-50 this year- they also lost 43-36 at Nebraska, but five of their last six games stayed under total. ASU is 3-2 in games with single-digit spread. Middle Tennessee is 6-6; they were favored by 7+ points in five of six wins- they’re 1-4 as an underdog this year. Blue Raiders’ last three games went over. MTSU lost its last four bowls, allowing 45-52 points in bowls the last two years; ASU is 3-2 in its last five bowls; they scored 34.3 ppg in last three. Sun Belt teams won two of first three Camellia Bowls. with an average total of 60. C-USA underdogs are 8-23 vs spread in non-league games this year. Last four years, C-USA teams are 9-5 vs spread when playing a Sun Belt opponent.
December 19
Akron @ Florida Atlantic (-22.5), Boca Raton Bowl
7-6 Akron is 4-3 vs spread as a double digit underdog this year; you don’t see many bowl games with a 22-point spread. Over last five years, double digit favorites are 18-12 vs spread in bowls, with biggest spread Oklahoma St (-17) over Purdue in a 2012 bowl they won 58-14. Zips are 1-1 in bowl games, winning 23-21 (+7) in Potato Bowl two years ago. Florida Atlantic is in its first bowl since 2008, but they’re at home here; Owls won last nine games (7-2 vs spread) after a 1-3 start; they’re 3-1 as a double digit favorite this year. FAU won both its bowl games; Kiffin was 0-2 in bowls at Tennessee/USC, scoring total of 21 points and he was favored in both games. Under is 9-3 in Akron games, 3-5 in last eight FAU games. Last three years, MAC teams are 13-6-1 vs spread when facing a C-USA opponent.
December 20
Louisiana Tech vs SMU (-5), Frisco Bowl, Frisco, TX
SMU is playing 25 miles from home, in its first bowl since 2012; this game is in the Dallas Cowboys’ practice facility, which seats 12,000 people. Mustangs are 2-3 vs spread as a favorite this year, 1-3-1 in games with single digit spread. Skip Holtz is 8-3 in bowls, 3-0 at Tech, scoring 35-47-48 points. Bulldogs are 3-2 as an underdog this year, 3-3 in games with single digit spread. Mustangs won four of their last five bowls- underdog won all five of those games SU. SMU scored 40+ points in their last three games overall, but lost two of the three- they allowed 31+ points in last five games, an average of 279 rushing yards in last seven games. Last four years, Tech is 12-5 vs spread as an underdog. Last five years, AAC teams are 12-7 vs spread when playing a C-USA team.
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NCAAF
Bowl Season
December 16
Troy (-6) vs North Texas- New Orleans Bowl
Troy won its last six games, is 10-2 this year, with a win at LSU; Trojans have a 4-year starter at QB, are 2-1 vs spread in games with single digit spread. North Texas won five of last six games, losing C-USA title game at FAU Dec 2. Mean Green is 4-1 vs spread in games with single digit spread. Favorites won/covered three of last five New Orleans Bowls; Conference USA teams won last two. Troy won its last two bowls, is 3-3 all-time; North Texas lost three of last four bowls; they’re 2-6 all-time in bowls. C-USA non-conference underdogs are 8-23 vs spread this season; Sun Belt favorites are 1-2. Since 2014, C-USA teams are 10-4 SU vs Sun Belt teams, covering four of last six as an underdog vs Sun Belt foes.
Western Kentucky (-5) vs Georgia State- Auto Nation Cure Bowl, Orlando
Western Kentucky is 6-6 this year, after going 40-14 the previous four years; they allowed 30+ points in each of their last six games. WKU has a senior QB who has 41 career starts- they’re 1-5-1 vs spread as a favorite, 1-5 in games with single digit pointspread. Georgia State has a senior QB who is grad transfer from Utah; Panthers are 6-5 this year, scoring 10 or less points in all five losses- they’re 2-3 vs spread as an underdog, 4-4-1 in games with single digit spread. Hilltoppers are 3-1 in bowls, winning last three years while scoring 49-45-51 points, but with a different coach. Georgia State lost its only bowl 27-16 to San Jose State in this same bowl two years ago, which was the first Cure Bowl. C-USA non-conference favorites are 7-3 vs spread; Sun Belt underdogs are 14-13. C-USA favorites covered six of last seven games when playing Sun Belt teams.
Oregon (-7.5) vs Boise State— Las Vegas Bowl
Oregon scored 117 points in winning its last two games after soph QB Herbert got healthy; they’re 7-5 but their coach already bolted for Florida State. Ducks are 4-2 vs spread as a favorite this year, 2-2 in games with a single digit spread. Boise State has a junior QB who has made 36 starts; Broncos won eight of last nine games- they won MAC title, scoring 17 points in consecutive games vs Fresno. Boise is 2-0 as an underdog this year, 4-2 in games with single digit spread. Boise is 3-2 in its last five bowls; they won Las Vegas Bowl three years in row, from 2010-12. Oregon lost its last two bowls, 42-20/47-41; average total in their last three bowls: 76.3. Favorites won/covered last three Las Vegas Bowls; Pac-12 teams won their last three visits here. Last three years, Pac-12 favorites are 14-12-1 vs spread when playing Mountain West teams.
Colorado State (-5.5) vs Marshall— Gildan New Mexico Bowl, Albuquerque
Colorado State is 7-5, dropping 3 of last 4 games, losing 59-52 at home to Boise when they led 35-17 at the half; Rams are 0-6 vs spread in their last six games- they’re 3-5 vs spread as a favorite, 3-5 in games with a single digit spread. CSU has a senior QB who has started 38 games. Marshall lost four of its last five games, losing last two games by total of three points. Thundering Herd is 5-0 vs spread as an underdog this year, 5-1 in games with a single digit spread- they’ve got a junior QB who has 33 starts. Rams lost their last three bowls, allowing 44.7 ppg- average total in their last five bowls: 74- they lost 61-50 in the Potato Bowl LY. Marshall won its last five bowls, allowing 16 ppg; they’re 10-2 all-time in bowls. Rams won 27-24 here October 20. C-USA teams covered seven of last ten games with Mountain West foes.
Arkansas State (-4) vs Middle Tennessee State, Raycom Media Camellia Bowl, Montgomery, AL
Arkansas State split its last four games, losing 32-25 to Troy in Sun Belt title game; Red Wolves won a game 67-50 this year- they also lost 43-36 at Nebraska, but five of their last six games stayed under total. ASU is 3-2 in games with single-digit spread. Middle Tennessee is 6-6; they were favored by 7+ points in five of six wins- they’re 1-4 as an underdog this year. Blue Raiders’ last three games went over. MTSU lost its last four bowls, allowing 45-52 points in bowls the last two years; ASU is 3-2 in its last five bowls; they scored 34.3 ppg in last three. Sun Belt teams won two of first three Camellia Bowls. with an average total of 60. C-USA underdogs are 8-23 vs spread in non-league games this year. Last four years, C-USA teams are 9-5 vs spread when playing a Sun Belt opponent.
December 19
Akron @ Florida Atlantic (-22.5), Boca Raton Bowl
7-6 Akron is 4-3 vs spread as a double digit underdog this year; you don’t see many bowl games with a 22-point spread. Over last five years, double digit favorites are 18-12 vs spread in bowls, with biggest spread Oklahoma St (-17) over Purdue in a 2012 bowl they won 58-14. Zips are 1-1 in bowl games, winning 23-21 (+7) in Potato Bowl two years ago. Florida Atlantic is in its first bowl since 2008, but they’re at home here; Owls won last nine games (7-2 vs spread) after a 1-3 start; they’re 3-1 as a double digit favorite this year. FAU won both its bowl games; Kiffin was 0-2 in bowls at Tennessee/USC, scoring total of 21 points and he was favored in both games. Under is 9-3 in Akron games, 3-5 in last eight FAU games. Last three years, MAC teams are 13-6-1 vs spread when facing a C-USA opponent.
December 20
Louisiana Tech vs SMU (-5), Frisco Bowl, Frisco, TX
SMU is playing 25 miles from home, in its first bowl since 2012; this game is in the Dallas Cowboys’ practice facility, which seats 12,000 people. Mustangs are 2-3 vs spread as a favorite this year, 1-3-1 in games with single digit spread. Skip Holtz is 8-3 in bowls, 3-0 at Tech, scoring 35-47-48 points. Bulldogs are 3-2 as an underdog this year, 3-3 in games with single digit spread. Mustangs won four of their last five bowls- underdog won all five of those games SU. SMU scored 40+ points in their last three games overall, but lost two of the three- they allowed 31+ points in last five games, an average of 279 rushing yards in last seven games. Last four years, Tech is 12-5 vs spread as an underdog. Last five years, AAC teams are 12-7 vs spread when playing a C-USA team.
Wiseguys are advising to jump on these early bowl odds now
Steve Merril
Sharps have flagged these bowl games as early lines to keep an eye on.
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Florida International (+7) vs. Temple
This line for the Gasparilla Bowl opened +8 and was quickly bet down to +7 before it even opened at some other major sportsbooks. Play it now before it dips below this key number. Florida International will be excited for this game after a 4-8 SU season last year. It is the Panthers' first bowl game in six years. They were a solid 8-4 SU this year and finished the regular season with back-to-back wins in which they scored 104 points combined on offense.
Temple will be less excited for this game after a mediocre 6-6 SU regular season. The Owls were 10-3 SU last year before losing their bowl game as a 12-point favorite. Temple was also 10-3 SU in the 2015 regular season when they lost by 15 points as a 2.5-point bowl favorite. The Owls were a weak offensive team this season, averaging just 24.8 points per game on 5.5 yards per play (versus opponents that allow 28.6 ppg and 6.1 yppl).
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Appalachian State (+7.5) vs. Toledo
This line for the Dollar General Bowl opened at +8 and was quickly bet down to +7.5. Play it now while it remains above the key number of +7. Appalachian State enters with solid offensive momentum as they scored 31 points or more in three of their final four regular season games. Overall, the Mountaineers averaged 33.4 points per game on 6.5 yards per play this year, while allowing just 21.9 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.
Toledo also enters off three straight wins, but might be a little flat after winning the MAC championship game. Toledo probably was hoping for a better bowl bid after a solid 11-2 SU season. The Rockets were strong offensively this year, but weak on defense as they allowed 5.6 yards per play versus a schedule of weak offensive opponents that averaged just 5.3 yppl overall. Toledo's defense is now taking a substantial step-up in class. The Rockets lost last year, 31-28, versus Appalachian State in the Camellia Bowl.
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Georgia State vs. Western Kentucky (52)
This total for the Autonation Cure Bowl has risen a couple points higher since opening. These early minor bowl games do have a tendency to be higher scoring, but that might not be the case in this game with two weak offensive teams. Georgia State averaged a paltry 19.7 points per game this season on just 5.4 yards per play (versus opponents that allowed 26.4 ppg on 5.8 yppl). Meanwhile, Western Kentucky averaged just 26.2 points per game on only 5.3 yards per play (versus opponents that allowed 29.7 ppg on 5.8 yppl).
Both offenses were particularly weak down the stretch. Western Kentucky scored 23 points or less in three of their final four regular season games. Georgia State scored only 10 points in each of their final two games. The Panthers have a 5-1 Under mark in their past six games overall. Last year, Georgia State managed just 16 total points in this same bowl game.