Betting Recap - Week 14
December 11, 2017
By Daniel Dobish
VegasInsider.com
The largest underdogs to win straight up
Bears (+6, ML + ) at Bengals, 33-7
Cardinals (+3, ML + ) vs. Titans, 12-7
Panthers (+2.5, ML + ) vs. Vikings, 31-24
The largest favorite to cover
Chargers (-6) vs. Redskins, 30-13
Chiefs (-4.5) vs. Raiders, 26-15
Cowboys (-4) at Giants, 30-10
Packing It In?
-- The Green Bay Packers posted their second consecutive victory, and third straight cover, with an overtime win on the road against the Cleveland Browns. The Packers entered the fourth quarter down 21-7, but backup QB Brett Hundley led them to the 14-point comeback, forcing OT. Then, QB DeShone Kizer was picked off in Cleveland territory, and the Pack had a short field to work with in the extra session. The Packers were 0-3 SU/ATS in the first three games QB Aaron Rodgers was hurt and/or he missed, but they have won three out of the past five while going 4-1 ATS to stay in the playoff hunt. Now, Rodgers is primed and ready to return for the final three games with a playoff spot within reach. The 'over' is 3-0 in the past three for Green Bay, and 5-1 over their past six outings, too.
Positive Charge
-- The Los Angeles Chargers blasted the Washington Redskins so badly (30-13) that head coach Jay Gruden was "at a loss for words" in his post-game presser. The Bolts have now won four in a row, and they're 7-2 SU/ATS since starting out 0-4 SU/0-3-1 ATS over their first four outings. The Chargers have found a way to win the close games, something that eluded them earlier in the season. Defense has also been a major part of their turnaround, as they're allowing just 9.7 PPG over the past three. The 'under' is an impressive 7-1 over their past eight outings, and 9-3 over the past 12 contests.
Total Recall
-- It was a strange week for totals, as the games Vegas expected to be shootouts were filled with defense, and some of the games expected to be lower-scoring turned into offensive showcases. And, of course, we had a snow-filled battle in the Indianapolis-Buffalo (36.5). Several inches of snow fell on the heads of the Colts and Bills, and we had a 7-7 battle go to overtime before the Bills ripped off a game-winning TD scamper through the flakes.
-- Sunday's game with the highest total (48.5), Oakland-Kansas City, never quite got off the ground and 'over' bettors were fighting to get back into it all day. That's because the teams totaled just three points in the first quarter because rallying for 41 total points. The Miami-New England (48) is still pending, but the Detroit-Tampa Bay (48) game also never quite got off the ground to develop as an offensive shootout. And, of course, Thursday's New Orleans-Atlanta (52) battle was an unexpected defensive battle. The only game Vegas fingered as a high-scoring showcase which turned out to be that, and more, was the Philadelphia-L.A. Rams (47.5) battle.
-- The three lowest totals on the board from Sunday -- Indianapolis-Buffalo (36.5), Green Bay-Cleveland (38.5) and Chicago-Cincinnati (40) -- went 1-1-1 to the 'under'. We covered the snow game above, and the Pack spoiled the 'under' with two fourth-quarter touchdowns to force OT and kill 'under' bettors. With :17 left in regulation, the Packers scored a TD. And the Bears-Bengals game opened at 37.5 before closing at 40. Anyone who bet the 'over' in this game before Sunday likely cashed a winning ticket.
-- The 'Over/under' finished 1-1 in the first two primetime games during Week 14, and the 'over' is 25-17-1 (59.5%) through the first 43 primetime games of the 2017 season with Monday's New England Patriots-Miami Dolphins game pending. Officially, the 'over' finished 27-24 (52.9%) through 51 games under the lights in 2016. In 2015, the over finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games. In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.
Injury Report
-- Eagles QB Carson Wentz (knee) is feared to have suffered a torn anterior cruciate ligament to his left knee in the NFC showdown against the Rams. He'll have an MRI on Monday to confirm the results.
-- Jets QB Josh McCown (hand) suffered a broken left (non-throwing hand) and he might be done for the remainder of the season.
-- Titans QB Marcus Mariota (knee) was playing through a knee injury, although he said after the game that he is expected to be fine.
Looking Ahead
-- The Bears travel to meet the Lions (-6.5) on Saturday afternoon, and the Bears haven't been doing well against division foes lately. Chicago is 1-3-1 ATS in their past five against NFC North teams, and 0-4-1 ATS in their past five against NFC teams overall. The Lions are 3-0-1 ATS in their past four against teams with a losing overall mark, but just 1-4 ATS across their past five at home. In this series, Chicago is 4-1-1 ATS in the past six meetings, but just 2-5 ATS in their past seven trips to Detroit. The 'over' is 4-1 in the past five meetings at Ford Field, too.
-- The red-hot Chargers hit the road to battle the Chiefs (-1) in a key AFC West battle. Both teams are going in completely different directions than when they met back on Sept. 24 in Southern California. The Chiefs came away with a 24-10 win, dropping the Bolts to 0-3 SU/0-2-1 ATS at the time. The road team is 5-0 ATS in the past five meetings in this series. The Chargers are 4-1 ATS in their past five trips to Arrowhead, although just 2-6 ATS in the past eight meetings in this series. The 'under' is also 5-2 in the past seven meetings.
-- The Jaguars are heavily favored (-11.5) to knock off the division rival Texans. Houston is 4-9 ATS in their past 13 against teams with a winning record, 1-5 ATS in their past six AFC South battles and 1-7 ATS in their past eight road games against a team with a winning home record. The Jags are 6-1 ATS in their past seven division battles, and 5-2 ATS in the past seven overall. The road team has hit in six of the past seven meetings, with Houston 5-1 ATS in the past six trips to J'ville.
-- The Ravens have a bitter taste in their mouth after letting a big win slip away in Pittsburgh on Sunday night. They'll look to take out their frustration on the winless Browns. Baltimore is 11-2 ATS in their past 13 AFC North battles, and 4-1-1 ATS in the past six games overall. Cleveland is 2-13-1 ATS in their past 16 divisional games, and 7-20 ATS across their past 27 home outings. The Ravens have covered four straight in this series, and they're 7-1-1 ATS in the past nine trips to Cleveland. The 'over' has hit in four straight in Cleveland, too.
-- The Rams look to rebound after a disappointing home loss against the Eagles. They're 6-2 ATS in their past eight overall, and 4-1 ATS in their past five on the road. The Seahawks have had a knack for covering in Week 15, going 5-0-1 ATS over their past six seasons. In this series, the 'under' is 5-0 in the past five in Seattle, and 15-5-1 in the past 21 meetings. The Rams are 2-8 ATS in the past 10 trips to Seattle, and the home team is 7-2 ATS in the past nine in this series.
-- The Patriots and Steelers square off in an important game with plenty of playoff implications in the AFC. New England has covered four of their past five trips to Heinz Field, and they're 12-4 ATS in the past 16 meetings overall. The 'over' is 5-2 in the past seven battles in the Steel City, and 9-4 in the past 13 meetings overall between these teams.
-- The Falcons meet the Buccaneers on Monday night. Atlanta has covered six of their past eight NFC South battles, and they're 4-1 ATS in their past five overall. On the flip side, the Bucs are 1-10 ATS in their past 11 against NFC foes and 0-3-1 ATS in their past four against teams with a winning mark. They're also 0-5 ATS in their past five divisional outings.