NFL betting trends, odds and predictions for Monday, December 11th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
MNF - Patriots at Dolphins
December 10, 2017
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
LAST WEEK
The Patriots (10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS) took another step towards a 14th AFC East title in the last 15 seasons. New England cruised past Buffalo, 23-3 to pick up its eighth consecutive victory, while cashing as 7 ½-point favorites. Stephen Gostkowski kicked three field goals in the first half to give the Patriots a 9-3 halftime lead, while running back Rex Burkhead rushed for a pair of second half touchdowns to give New England the 20-point win.
Tom Brady failed to throw a touchdown pass for the first time since the opening week loss to Kansas City as he threw for 258 yards and one interception. The pick ending up costing the Patriots as Rob Gronkowski dove on Buffalo cornerback Tre’Davious White after the play was over, resulting in a one-game suspension for the New England tight end. Bill Belichick’s team cashed for the sixth straight game, while the Pats won its 14th consecutive road contest since the start of last season.
The Dolphins (5-7 SU, 4-6-2 ATS) snapped a five-game losing streak in last Sunday’s 35-9 rout of the slumping Broncos. Miami kept Denver’s offense out of the end zone as the only Broncos’ touchdown came on an interception return for a score. The Dolphins had their own pick-six as second-year cornerback Xavien Howard returned a Trevor Siemian interception for a touchdown to give Miami a 16-3 halftime advantage.
Miami also produced a pair of safeties to grab its first victory since Week 7 against the Jets, while winning by more than a touchdown for only the third time since Adam Gase took over as head coach in 2016. The Dolphins improved to 3-2 at Hard Rock Stadium, as running back Kenyon Drake rushed for 120 yards on 23 yards to go along with a 42-yard touchdown to solidify his spot as the top back for Miami.
OVER THE TOP
The Dolphins eclipsed the OVER for the sixth consecutive week, while allowing less than 27 points for the first time since a Week 6 victory at Atlanta. Miami’s offense didn’t break the 24-point mark in any of the five games during their skid, as the Dolphins started the season with five straight UNDERS prior to this current OVER streak.
New England is going the opposite direction from a totals standpoint as the Pats cashed the OVER in each of their first four games. Since that start, the defending Super Bowl champions are currently on a 6-2 UNDER run, while allowing 17 points or less in each of the past eight contests.
ROAD DOMINATION
As mentioned above, the Patriots have won 14 straight regular season games away from Foxboro (15 in a row if you include the epic comeback in last season’s Super Bowl). In that span, New England has posted an incredible 12-2 ATS record with both non-covers coming against the Jets. Monday will mark the third time in this stretch that the Patriots will be listed as a double-digit road favorite, as New England cashed in victories last season at Cleveland and San Francisco.
PREVIOUS MATCHUP
These AFC East rivals hooked up two weeks ago at Gillette Stadium as the Patriots ripped the Dolphins, 35-17 to cash as 17-point favorites. New England executed a fake punt to perfection on its opening drive, leading to Burkhead two-yard touchdown run, while Brady hit Gronkowski on a five-yard strike for an early 14-0 lead. The Dolphins took advantage of a muffed snap to Brady as Reshad Jones returned a fumble 14 yards for a score to get Miami on the board.
Miami didn’t any closer after that as Brady threw three more touchdown passes, while running back Dion Lewis rushed for 112 yards on 15 carries. New England has captured five of its past six meetings with Miami since 2014, but the Patriots have dropped three of their last four visits to Hard Rock Stadium, as three of those contests took place in December or January.
CHALK YOU VERY MUCH
The favorites continue to win on Monday night football as the streak was extended to eight consecutive weeks following Pittsburgh’s comeback triumph at Cincinnati in Week 13. Although the Steelers didn’t cash as 4 ½-point favorites, the chalk owns an 8-3 ATS record in the past 11 Monday night affairs. The OVER was on a 6-0 run prior to an UNDER breaking that streak in Week 12 between Houston and Baltimore, followed by a PUSH in Cincinnati.
HANDICAPPER’S CORNER
VegasInsider.com Joe Nelson points out that this heavy number has been tough to cover this season in the NFL, “Double-digit road favorites are 0-3 ATS in the NFL this season and on 9-27 ATS run league-wide going back to December of 2009 though the Patriots are 5-5 ATS in the role under Belichick since 2000. The only SU loss for Belichick as a double-digit road favorite with the Patriots came in Miami in Week 17 of the 2016 season with the Dolphins winning 20-10 as a 10-point home underdog, a stunning loss that handed Denver the top seed in the AFC.”
Trends expert Vince Akins provides a play-on system for New England, “The Patriots are 12-0 ATS since Oct 16, 2016 coming off a game where they allowed less than 18 first downs.” Three of those victories came this season by an average score of 32-9, as New England was in this situation last week at Buffalo.
Meanwhile, Akins supplies a trend that can keep Miami’s current OVER streak going, “The Dolphins are 9-0 OU (since Dec 4, 2016 coming off a game where they scored more points than Vegas expected.” Two of those OVERS occurred at home in 2016, but it included the OVER against Tampa Bay in which the Buccaneers scored a meaningless touchdown as time expired.
BOOKMAKER’S TAKE
Scott Cooley of BookMaker.eu says that the home team is gaining support in the underdog role, “Bettors divided as the public is promptly on the Pats while the pros like Miami. We really only move lines based on sharp action so that’s why you see the dip toward the Dolphins. Currently, the square money is backing New England to the tune of 75 percent of the tickets. The money handle is almost even, with just a few more dollars on the home team.”
Monday's Best Bet
December 9, 2017
By Sportsbetting.ag
NFL Week 14 MNF Betting Preview
New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins
Week 14 primetime games are all about division rivalries, and after Atlanta knocked off New Orleans in a good TNF battle, football fans get the powerhouses in the AFC showing their stuff to end the week before the two of them meet in a huge game next week.
The “two” I am talking about are New England and Pittsburgh as their came in the Steel City in Week 15 will likely determine home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs. Pittsburgh hosts Baltimore on SNF in a tricky spot, but the Patriots travel Miami on Monday night as they look to dispatch the Dolphins for the second time in three weeks.
Sportsbetting.ag Odds: New England (-11); Total set at 47
It was just back in Week 12 that the Dolphins travelled up to Foxborough as huge 17-point underdogs and ended up losing 35-17 to this New England squad. Similar to last year, the Patriots don't really care what number oddsmakers force them to cover, they bring home the money anyways as they've gone 6-0 ATS in their last six games and five of those six have had them laying about a TD or more. The 17 points they laid and covered against Miami two weeks ago was the biggest spread Patriots backers have had to deal with all year, so it's only fitting that with the venue change this number comes down a bit but still stays in double-digit range.
Oddsmakers know that bettors will continue to flock to making Patriots bets regardless, so they do tend to shade the point spreads that way. Even with the Dolphins coming off a dominant 35-9 win over Denver last week, nobody really wants to step in front of this Patriots train, especially when they beat this team in dominant fashion just two weeks ago.
However, if you ignore the actual team names in this contest and look at the scenario from a broad view, you'll quickly realize that this is an awful spot for a visiting team to be laying double-digits. It's that team that has to have a bit of a ho-hum attitude after beating this opponent by 18 points two weeks ago and knowing that their biggest game of the regular season is on deck.
This is also the fourth road game in five weeks for that visiting side, and eventually the situation and travel catches up to teams. Any team in that scenario would be in a bad spot to cover 11 points, and although it is the Patriots and all their greatness may negate a few of those concerns, following the 70%-plus bettors already laying the chalk with New England is not something I'm going to do here.
In fact, because it actually is New England, you can make the argument that their pedigree and history would suggest that laying all those points is even worse then originally thought. The Patriots are all about professionalism and getting wins and the thought process regarding that this week has got to be “get into Miami, stay healthy, and get out with a win.” New England knows they can smoke this team (they already have) but they've got bigger things to worry about in the grand scheme of things. If they can get out of South Beach with a win by any number, a win is a win, and then they can put all their attention on Pittsburgh next week.
Finally, we've got Miami's perspective who aren't likely to go anywhere this season, but would like to restore some professional pride after the beating they took up in New England recently. That game there was no Jay Cutler under center, and while he's not much of an upgrade over Matt Moore, he's still an upgrade nonetheless.
Miami would also love to take full advantage of a division rival that's probably looking past them this week, and there's nothing like capping off a rough year with a home win against the best division rival you've got.
It might not pan out for an outright win, but with the home team 10-1 ATS the last 11 times these two have hooked up, and New England having a 2-6 ATS run going on the road against a team with a losing record at home, expect the Dolphins to put up a valiant fight for the full 60 minutes as they come up short by a TD or less.
Odds per - Sportsbetting.ag
Best Bet: Miami +11