Free Picks for Thursday, November 23rd, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
Robert Ferringo
Oregon State vs St. John's
Play: St. John's
I am giving up on Oregon State. This is a team that I thought would be vastly improved this season. But to this point they have looked feeble. St. John's, on the other hand, is a team that I thought would be much better and they are. The Red Storm have a killer backcourt with Shamorie Ponds and Marcus LoVett, and right now they have four guys on the perimeter averaging at least 10 points per game. St. John's speed and their aggressiveness on the perimeter is really going to bother Oregon State, which is more of a post-based team. St. John's already took one scalp from a major conference, hammering Nebraska by 23. I think that Chris Mullin's group will be ready to go on Thanksgiving down in Florida, and I like another double-digit win for the Storm.
Raphael Esparza
Mississippi / Mississippi St Over 62
Last year Mississippi State beat Ole Miss 55-20, and this year I see the same type of game being played. Ole Miss has been trending 'Over' games as of late, going 7-1 O/U in their last 8 games. The Bulldogs get this matchup at home for this rivalry game, and Mississippi State at home is averaging 35 ppg and Thursday night I see both teams being able to score and push this total over. Ole Miss is 8-0-1 O/U following a SU loss and the Rebels are 8-1 O/U in their last 9 conference games. Mississippi State is 6-1 O/U following a ATS loss, and I know in this series the UNDER has been really good but poor defenses from both will push this game over.
Vernon Croy
Minnesota (-3) over Detroit
This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems, and the Vikings are hands down the superior overall team at this point in the season. The Bears basically handed Detroit the game last Sunday as the Bears should have won by 7 points if it was not for mental mistakes and dropped balls that should have been caught. The Vikings, meanwhile, put away one of the best offensive teams in the NFL with a 24-7 rout over the Rams. I fully expect the Vikings defense to step up again on the road against the Lions this week, and the Vikings are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after putting up more than 150 rushing yards in their previous game. The Vikings are perhaps one of the hottest teams in the NFL with them firing on all cylinders on both sides of the ball, and they are also 21-7 ATS in their last 28 games after a win. The Lions are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games and just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games when playing a team with a winning record. The Vikings also have the revenge factor after losing at home to the Lions 14-7 earlier this season because of 3 fumbles.
Harry Bondi
Giants / Redskins Over 44.5
With a fading defense, an elite QB and an offense that’s getting healthier with each week, it’s no surprise the Redskins have become a dead-nuts “over” team, going over the total in six of their last seven games. No reason to expect anything different here against the NY Giants defense, which caught a huge break last week by playing the Chiefs in a game that featured wind gusts up to 40 mph. Take away that game and the G-Men are allowing 27 points per game, while the Skins have given up 29 points or more in five of their last seven games. It’s a Thanksgiving Night Shootout! Go over.
Sean Higgs
Giants vs. Redskins
Play: Redskins -7
We will be backing the WASHINGTON REDSKINS tonight. Look. It was nice cashing the Giants on the ML last week. (also had the 'Skins) - But we have to ask ourselves. Is that same speech going to work on a short week? The same old, lets show them who we are, we aren't quitters. I don't think so. I personally think that the NYG should toss Geno behind this terrible OL. At least he can move better than Eli who makes Roman Statues look athletic.
All we really need to know is that the injury riddles Redskins, now without their top offensive threat (Thompson), and in off blowing a late 4th quarter lead, are laying this kind of number. Make no mistake. If Washington is bad, then the Giants are downright awful. Cousins is still putting up numbers as someone is paying him 20 million next year. I know people have short memories and only remember last Sunday. But I sure remember the week before in San Fran where a Giants player texted an ESPN reporter and said we are done with McAdoo (or McAdoo-doo if we really are calling things straight) - then after that 31-21 loss, texted back, told ya.
Send in the clowns. Fire Reese. Move on from Eli. Draft some OL and setting in for the rebuild New York.
3G-Sports
Giants vs. Redskins
Play: Giants +7
The Giants defense played great last week and this is a big divisional game on Thursday night. Last week the NY Giants played without Eli Apple at CB. They get him back this week against the Skins, who are coming off a colossal collapse in the Superdome and probably still wondering what the hell happened. This is a situation where a team allows one loss to become two. Take the points with the NY Giants.
Chase Diamond
Chargers vs. Cowboys
Play: Chargers -2
This game features the 4-6 Chargers at the 5-5 Cowboys. This is the game I am least confident in but feel like the Chargers are the obvious play here even though the public is about 50/50 on this game as far as bets placed. But the closer we get to kickoff I think you will see this line go to -2.5 across the board maybe -3. Quarterbacks are equal but I think the Chargers have the edge on both defense and offense having a back like Melvin Gordon is a big deal. Elliot is like Rodgers on the Packers almost. We will follow the sharps here with a 15* play on Chargers.
Ray Monohan
Chargers vs. Cowboys
Play: Over 48
Los Angeles vs. Dallas Over 47.5 Thanksgiving pins the Cowboys in action once again and with the Chargers in town, we should see a lot of points here. Dallas is certainly happy to see Philadelphia out of town. The Cowboys looked almost timid with their playcalling, but that won't be the case here against the Chargers. Dallas has the playmakers to really make some big plays and put points up quickly. It'll start with Dak Prescott as he has to make some plays down field. He under threw a lot of receivers last week and he is one to certainly learn from his mistakes. From the Chargers side of things, Los Angeles put up a 54 point performance last week. This offense is playing will sorts of confidence and given how this Dallas defense has played lately, moving the ball with some pace will be one thing to watch for here from LA. Some trends to note. Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings. Expect a back and forth kind of game.
DAVE COKIN
MARIST VS. WEST VIRGINIA
PLAY: WEST VIRGINIA -27.5
If a team can beat that relentless West Virginia pressure, they can get loads of open three-point looks. Unfortunately for Marist, they’re prone to turning the ball over and they don’t shoot it well from outside.
This will be a bloodletting if the Mountaineers are in the mood. The game is a mismatch in terms of talent and from a style perspective as well. There’s always a little worry that the vastly superior favorite puts it on cruise control, especially in an opening round game where the team knows it has to come back the next day.
But since getting stunned in a blowout loss to Texas A&M to open the season, the Mountaineers have been taking no prisoners, so Marist is in trouble here. Even at the gigantic number, West Virginia looks like the side to me.
Brandon Lee
Chargers vs. Cowboys
Play: Cowboys +2½
I just feel this line is a huge overreaction to the Cowboys last two games. While Dallas certainly didn’t look good in either of those games against Atlanta and Philadelphia, those are two of the better teams in the NFC. LA is a team that the Cowboys can certainly get back on track against and they are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs a team with a losing record.
Los Angeles has won 4 of 6 to get back in the hunt on the AFC West, but this is still the same team that lost at home to the Dolphins and their 4 wins over the Giants, Raiders, Broncos and Bills are nothing to get excited about. Buffalo basically gifted the Chargers a win last week with the decision to start Peterman and I just think we are seeing a big overreaction here. Los Angeles is just 5-16 in their last 21 road games and simply put should not be laying points on the road on a short week of rest.
One of the big reasons why Dallas has struggled the past two weeks without Zeke is they have also been missing arguably the best left tackle in the game in Tyron Smith. He’s targeted this game as his return from injury and while he’s still listed as day-to-day, he was taking 1st team reps in practice. I expect Smith to play and that’s not only going to allow Dallas to get back to having success on the ground, it’s going to really help get Dak Prescott and the passing game going.
It’s no secret that Dallas is a better team when they can run the football, as Prescott just isn’t quite ready to carry a team on his own. With or without Smith back at left tackle, the Chargers a team they should be able to get the running game going against. Los Angeles ranks dead last in the NFL against the run, giving up 138.9 ypg.
Another key here is that the Chargers offensive line could be decimated for this game. Starting left tackle Russell Okung, starting right tackle Joe Barksdale and starting center Spencer Pulley are all listed as questionable and with the short turnaround could struggle to get back on the field for Thursday’s game. Even if all 3 play, I think LA could struggle to get going offensively, as they have all season on the road, where they are scoring just 19 ppg.
Doug Upstone
Chargers vs. Cowboys
Play: Under 47½
Dallas has had problems the last couple games on both sides of the ball. When the total is between 42.5 and 49 points in a game involving two good offensive teams averaging 335 to 370 yards per contest, after 8+ games and teams like Dallas were just out-gained by opp by 100 or more total yards in there last outing, they are 24-6 UNDER in next game since 2008.
Marc Lawrence
Giants vs. Redskins
Play: Under 44½
Edges - Giants: 4-7 UNDER on Thursdays… Redskins: 6-14 UNDER last twenty games in this series… With the point-starved Giants having scored 21 or fewer points in each of their last four games, we recommend a 1* play on the UNDER in this game.
Jimmy Boyd
Chargers vs. Cowboys
Play: Under 48
I think we are getting some great value here with the total in Thursday's Thanksgiving matchup between the Cowboys and Chargers. I feel like this total has been inflated quite a bit with the Chargers off a 54-point outburst against the Bills, which saw a combined 78 points scored. While Dallas only scored 9, their game with the Eagles had 46 points and that's now two straight in which the Cowboys have gave up at least 27 points.
I just don't see these two playing a high-scoring game. A big reason why Dallas' offense has struggled the last two weeks is they have faced two of the best offenses in the NFL in the Falcons and Eagles. San Diego is no where close to the level of those two teams and prior to their outburst against the Bills they had scored just 17, 21, 13 and 17 over their previous 4 games.
As for the Cowboys, the offense is going to continue to struggle without Ezekiel Elliot, but they should be getting back All-Pro left tackle Tyron Smith. That should allow them to have more success on the ground and play more of a ball control offense. It also helps the Chargers are dead last against the run, giving up 138.9 yards/game on the ground.
I could easily see both teams struggling to score 20 points in this one, and feel like we are getting more than a touchdown in value here given the matchup. UNDER is 6-1 in the Chargers last 7 off a SU win by more than 10 points and 20-8-1 in their last 29 after scoring more than 30 in their previous game. UNDER is also 6-2 in the Cowboys last 8 after allowing more than 30 points and 8-2 in their last 10 off a double-digit loss at home.
Bruce Marshall
Mississippi at Mississippi St
Pick: Over
One well-placed source familiar with both of these sides had a score prediction we support..."about 49-17, Miss State" for this Egg Bowl. Rebs looked like a spent force after the 1st Q vs. A&M, and doubt they rally here, Not there have been some blowouts in Egg Bowls lately (5 of last 6 and 7 of 9 decided by DDs), and MSU certainly capable of extending a margin with dual-threat QB Nick Fitzgerald. Given the blowout hiustory of Egg Bowls, can see the "over" as well.