NFL betting trends, odds and predictions for Thursday, November 23rd, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
MINNESOTA (8 - 2) at DETROIT (6 - 4) - 11/23/2017, 12:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in November games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 30-13 ATS (+15.7 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 30-13 ATS (+15.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in dome games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 21-6 ATS (+14.4 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.
DETROIT is 132-172 ATS (-57.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 3-2 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 3-2 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
LA CHARGERS (4 - 6) at DALLAS (5 - 5) - 11/23/2017, 4:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CHARGERS is 94-68 ATS (+19.2 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 46-27 ATS (+16.3 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 29-14 ATS (+13.6 Units) in road games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
DALLAS is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
NY GIANTS (2 - 8 ) at WASHINGTON (4 - 6) - 11/23/2017, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 37-63 ATS (-32.3 Units) in November games since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 34-58 ATS (-29.8 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 31-52 ATS (-26.2 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 59-93 ATS (-43.3 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 84-116 ATS (-43.6 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 84-116 ATS (-43.6 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 84-116 ATS (-43.6 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 22-46 ATS (-28.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 13-27 ATS (-16.7 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 2-2 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 2-2 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA @ DETROIT
Minnesota is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Detroit's last 8 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 6 games
LA CHARGERS @ DALLAS
LA Chargers is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Chargers's last 5 games
Dallas is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games at home
Dallas is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games
NY GIANTS @ WASHINGTON
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Giants's last 5 games when playing on the road against Washington
NY Giants is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Washington
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Washington's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing at home against NY Giants
StatFox Super Situations
MINNESOTA at DETROIT
Play Under - Any team vs the the 1rst half total after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games against opponent after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 3 straight games 41-15 over the last 5 seasons. ( 73.2% | 24.5 units )
NFL Week 12
Vikings (8-2) @ Lions (6-4) — Detroit won/covered its last four Thanksgiving games; Lions won their last three games overall, scoring 31.7 ppg- they’re 2-3 SU at home. Since 2011, Detroit is 2-8-1 vs spread as a home underdog. Minnesota’s last loss was 14-7 home setback to Detroit in Week 4; they were -3 in turnovers, but outgained Detroit 284-251. Vikings won their last six games, covered last five- they’re 2-1 on road, with only loss at Pittsburgh. Lions were +3 in turnovers- their only TD drive was 29 yards. Detroit won last three series games and five of last seven- average total in last three meetings: 29.3. Three of last four Minnesota games, five of Lions’ last six games went over. Dogs are 4-1 vs spread in NFC North divisional games this year.
Chargers (4-6) @ Cowboys (5-5) — Dallas lost last two games 27-7/37-9, allowing 12 sacks with LT Smith hurt- check status here. Cowboys lost three of their last four home games- they’re 2-2 as a home favorite this year. Chargers covered five of last six games; they’re 2-3 on road, 4-1 vs spread as a road underdog. In its last five games, LA is +10 in turnovers- they didn’t get inside opponents’ 20-yard line in either of last two road games. Dallas is 6-4 in this series, but Chargers won three of last four meetings, winning 32-21/20-17 in last two visits here. NFC East non-divisional home favorites are 4-5 vs spread; AFC West road underdogs are 4-4. Last three Dallas games stayed under total, as have four of last five Charger games.
Giants (2-8 ) @ Redskins (4-6) — Washington lost four of its last five games; they blew a 31-16 lead with 3:10 left in Superdome LW, lost in OT. Redskins are 2-3 at home, 0-1 as a home favorite- their last win by more than three points was in Week 3. Giants are 2-3 in their last five games after an 0-5 start; they’re 3-1 vs spread as road underdogs this year- dogs covered four of their five road games. In their last four games, Big Blue was outscored 65-21 in second half. Giants won six of last eight games with Redskins, winning three of last four visits here. Favorites are 4-1 vs spread in NFC East divisional games this season. Over is 5-1 in last six Washington games, 5-3 in last eight Giant games.
Armadillosports.com
NFL Thanksgiving Day lines that make you go hmmm...
By Peter Korner
Covers.com
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (+3, 44.5)
This game actually opened up at Detroit -1 at some offshore sportsbooks. That was quickly corrected by the betting public to where the Vikings are now 3-point favorites. I made Minnesota a 1.5-point favorite with the understanding that public perception says Minnesota should be favored, but by the end of the week, the home dog will certainly be attracting money.
Minnesota seems almost flawless after a dominating performance in Week 11. This team has been playing very well throughout the season and is currently riding a six-game win streak. The key for the Vikings has been their defense - no doubt – and adding to that, there should be some hype in the Vikings locker room regarding the revenge factor and avenging one of just two losses to date.
Detroit has been winning as well and played a tough defensive-minded Chicago team this past week and still racked up 27 points. My gut tells me the Lions will be hungry for the upset and being the home dog may supersede Minnesota’s revenge factor. The last four Thanksgivings have been beneficial to the Lions, winning four straight, and I suspect that money will follow them as we get closer to kickoff.
I think the value is in taking the Lions with as many points as you can. Don’t be surprised if they are the aggressors in this one.
Los Angeles Chargers at Dallas Cowboys (PK, 48)
This one landed on Dallas as a 3.5- point favorite for a split second and has since seen an avalanche of early money on the Chargers, moving this to a pick’em as of this writing. I personally made this Dallas -3 so I agree with the offshores on this one. This one-sided betting is largely due to the public’s short memory and recall. They obviously remember L.A.’s big win over Buffalo and couple opinion that with Philadelphia cluster bombing of the Cowboys Sunday night.
I’m not impressed with Los Angeles’ road results. The two wins were against now recognized bad teams in Oakland and the N.Y. Giants. And although they did rack up some noteworthy points against Buffalo, we all know that was against a first-time starter who threw five interceptions.
The Cowboys had won three in a row against teams on par with the Chargers before they lost twice in the past two weeks to top-tier teams in Atlanta and Philadelphia. This is a must-win game for Dallas, which needs a big victory on national TV to get in position for a playoff run with six weeks to go. I think the emotions will be with Dallas and with the spread at a pick, there’s good value on the home team.
I see this heading back up on Dallas, so grab the low number while you can early in the week.
New York Giants at Washington Redskins (-7.5, 44)
After watching Washington play some impressive football at New Orleans, only to fold in the fourth quarter, it made me recheck the Redskins’ poor record. What I found was a reasonable explanation: they have played a brutal schedule where losses have come to the hands of Philadelphia twice, a good early Kansas City team, Dallas, Minnesota and New Orleans. The last two losses were very competitive.
After analyzing that information, I made this Washington -9. What helps the value here is the Giants’ win over a nose-diving Chiefs team this past weekend. I think a loss there would have seen the opening spread closer to my own number. The Giants are going nowhere and can’t be expected to be emotionally in this game. It’s basically do-or-die for the Hogs, who can ill afford another loss if they expect to stay in the playoff hunt.
The Giants broke through for their second win of the season and it’s improbable that they can win two games in a row let alone that it will be on the road. Seven points is a tough number to overcome, but a glance at the New York offense suggests they can’t muster too many points.
Their recent past has seen a downward trend of offense the past four weeks. They’ve lost three of their past four games and their offense is averaging less than 14 points per contest. The way Washington’s offense has played the past two weeks against respectable teams (scoring 30 and 31 points), I just don’t see where the Giants can keep pace.
Though it’s a big number, the value at this level is on Washington.
NFL's Biggest Betting Mismatches: Thanksgiving Day Edition
By: Monty Andrews
Covers.com
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (+1.5, 44.5)
Vikings' vaunted run defense vs. Lions' limp ground game
The Detroit Lions playing on Thanksgiving is an NFL tradition - and this year's game carries added significance as the Lions look to keep pace with the first-place Minnesota Vikings in an NFL North showdown. The Lions have won three consecutive games but have yet to slice into Minnesota's two-game lead, as the Vikings have reeled off six wins in a row. They'll look to extend that hot streak further on the strength of a sensational run defense - one that could cause Detroit serious problems.
While a surprisingly balanced offense led by quarterback Case Keenum has been a factor in the Vikings' rise to the top of the NFC power rankings - alongside the Philadelphia Eagles, of course - it's that vaunted defense that has played the biggest role. Minnesota has allowed more than 17 points just once during the streak, and held one of the league's most formidable attacks at bay last weekend, using a big fourth quarter to subdue the Los Angeles Rams 24-7.
Minnesota squashed the Rams' running game from the start, limiting Todd Gurley and Co. to 45 rushing yards on 17 attempts. That has been the trademark of the Vikings' 2017 resurgence - they rank in the top three league-wide in average rushing yards against (77.7), yards per carry allowed (3.3) and fewest rushing first downs allowed (3.8 ). It's no wonder that teams run the ball just 37.4 percent of the time against Minnesota, the second-lowest rate in the league.
The Lions are known for being a pass-first team - they throw the ball nearly 62 percent of the time, the ninth-highest rate in the NFL. But when they do run the ball, the results have been ... not good. Detroit ranks 28th in the league in rushing yards per game (80.8 ), 30th in yards per carry (3.4) and 24th in rushing touchdowns per contest (0.4). Matthew Stafford can't air it out every time - and when Detroit does take to the ground, bettors should expect Minnesota to shut down the run game with emphasis.
Los Angeles Chargers at Dallas Cowboys (-1, 47.5)
Chargers' 1-2 sack combo vs. Cowboys' suddenly leaky O-line
It's officially time to panic in Big D, as the Dallas Cowboys enter their annual Thanksgiving foray desperate to improve their suddenly sagging playoff chances. The Cowboys have dropped two in a row and were humiliated at home in their last game, a 37-9 drubbing at the hands of the NFC East-leading Philadelphia Eagles. Times have been tough without offensive lineman Tyron Smith, and if he doesn't return this weekend, Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott might find himself on his back a whole lot.
The last thing a team struggling to protect its quarterback wants to see is a date with the Chargers on the calendar. Los Angeles is in tough to make the postseason - it comes into this one with a disappointing 4-6 mark - but you can't blame the pass rush, which has consistenly been one of the league's best all season long. The Chargers enter Week 12 having compiled 30 sacks to date; only the Jacksonville Jaguars (40) and Pittsburgh Steelers (30) have more.
The catalyst for Los Angeles' QB-chasing prowess: The sensational duo of Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram, who have combined for an incredible 19 sacks between them; Bosa ranks third overall with 10.5 sacks, while Ingram is close behind in seventh (8.5). They're the second-most prolific duo in the league, behind only the Jaguars' tandem of Calais Campbell and Yannick Ngakoue. An Oct. 1 loss to the Eagles is the only game all season in which neither Bosa nor Ingram recorded a sack.
With two QB hunters as effective as Bosa and Ingram coming to town, you can forgive Prescott for feeling a little antsy. The second-year signal caller has been sacked a whopping 12 times over the past two weeks, as the Cowboys' pass protection has completely faltered in Smith's absence. If he can't go this Thursday, look for Bosa and Ingram to make Prescott run for his life - and in a game that's expected to be close, that could tip the scales in favor of the visitors.
New York Giants at Washington Redskins (-7.5, 44.5)
Giants' big-play D struggles vs. Kirk Cousins' long-pass prowess
The New York Giants have long been eliminated from post-season contention - but they have proven to be a tough out in recent weeks, and would love nothing more than to ruin the Redskins' playoff hopes this weekend in an NFC East tussle at FedExField. The Giants shocked the visiting Kansas City Chiefs 12-9 on Sunday, and will look to carry that momentum into conference play, having lost their first seven games to NFC foes. But to do it, they'll need to find a way to contain Kirk Cousins.
The Giants haven't done a lot of things right - and while most of the attention has been focused on the offense, and quarterback Eli Manning in particular, the defense hasn't inspired much confidence, either. New York has been a magnet for big passing plays, allowing quarterbacks an average of 7.7 yards per pass attempt - lower than just four other NFL teams. And the Giants rank 28th out of 32 teams in average yards per completed pass against (7.5).
That makes this weekend's showdown with Cousins and the Redskins the perfect test. Cousins has made a career out of throwing the ball downfield, and is averaging a whopping 8.1 yards per pass attempt so far in 2017 - only Tom Brady (8.3), Jared Goff (8.3) and Drew Brees (8.2) have a higher rate. It should come as no surprise, then, that Cousins comes into Week 12 ranked second in the NFL in passing yards (2,796) despite sitting sixth in total attempts (345).
If last week is any indication, the Giants should expect Cousins to be even more vertically inclined than usual. Cousins averaged more than 10 yards per passing attempt in Sunday's stunning overtime loss to the New Orleans Saints, racking up 322 passing yards on 32 throws. And while his 7.98 passing yards per attempt at home ranks slightly below his road mark (8.25), facing a Giants secondary that has been more than generous should bump his home mark above the 8.00 mark for the season.
Week 12 Betting Tidbits For NFL Thanksgiving Day Games
Covers.com
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (+3, 44.5)
The Vikings didn’t look like world beaters when the Lions pushed them out to sea in a 14-7 loss at home in Week 4. But since that setback, Minnesota has won six in a row and covered in five straight games.
The Purple People Eaters are the only team to rank inside the top five in total offense and total defense – and that’s without their preseason first choices at quarterback and running back on the active roster.
The Lions are 3-0 straight up and 2-0-1 against the spread over their last three games, but there is one weakness that seems to be getting worse by the week. Detroit gave up 222 yards on the ground to the Bears on Sunday – making it back-to-back outings with opponents rushing for over 200 yards against the club.
The Lions are missing their run-stuffing defensive tackle Haloti Ngata. The defense allowed just 74.6 rushing yards per game in the five contests with Ngata and 153.8 in the five games without him.
LINE HISTORY: Lots of movement on this line. Many books opened with the Lions giving a point but the spread has moved four points with the Lions now getting 3 points at home. The total is holding at 44.5.
TRENDS:
*The under is 7-1 in the last eight meetings between the Lions and Vikings.
*The Lions are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games against teams with winning records.
*The Vikings are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games vs. NFC North opponents.
*The Lions are 5-0 ATS in the last five Thanksgiving Day games.
Los Angeles Chargers at Dallas Cowboys (PK, 47.5)
All of NFL Twitter is still chuckling at the Bills' decision to start Nathan Peterman against the Chargers, but there should be some credit being given to the Chargers’ pass defense. Los Angeles owns the league’s eighth best passing D and the club allows only 1.2 passing TDs per game. The Bolts are third in sacks per game and they’ve picked off opposing quarterback seven times in their last two games.
Cowboys QB Dak Prescott is coming off a career-worst, three-pick performance on Sunday night against the Philadelphia Eagles. The good news for Dallas backers is that Prescott's blindside should be well protected against the Chargers pass-rushing duo of Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram because All-Pro left tackle Tyron Smith is expected to make his return from a two-game absence.
LINE HISTORY: The Cowboys opened as 2.5-point favorites but the Bolts are now 1-point road chalk. There hasn’t been as much movement on the total. Most shops are all dealing 47.5.
TRENDS:
*The Cowboys are 0-6 ATS in the last six years on Thanksgiving Day.
*The Chargers 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.
*The under is 6-2 in the Chargers’ last eight road games and 4-1 in their last five games overall.
New York Giants at Washington Redskins (-7.5, 45)
The Redskins blew a 15-point, fourth-quarter lead with less than three minutes to play at New Orleans on Sunday. The game turned against Washington backers when their team failed to pick up a first down on a third-and-one play with 2:36 left to go and the Saints without any timeouts remaining. The Redskins would have been able to ice the game had they picked up the first down.
Struggling on third and short isn’t out of character for Washington. The squad ranks 26th in the league when trying to pick up a first down on third and one situations. They average negative .43 yards before contact in those spots according to ESPN Stats & Information.
The Giants are coming off an outright win as double-digit dogs against Kansas City last week. Head coach Ben McAdoo got a lot more creative with his play calling in the game by calling the first fake punt in 13 years for the G-Men according to the New York Post. The Giants also had running back Shane Vereen try a pass on a halfback option and threw defensive tackle Robert Thomas in as a fullback on a goal line play. Desperate times call for desperate measures.
LINE HISTORY: The books opened with Washington as 7.5-point home faves and that’s where it stands now although there are a few shops dealing -7 with a little extra juice. The total is holding steady at 44.5.
TRENDS:
*The Redskins are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games.
*The over is 24-7 in Washington’s last 31 games overall.
*The underdog is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 games between these two divisional rivals.
Total Talk - Thanksgiving
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
The NFL festivities on Thanksgiving Day will feature a pair of divisional matchups and an intriguing non-conference contest from the Lone Star State. It appears that the oddsmakers have posted strong opening numbers on the three-game card since none of the totals have moved drastically in either direction as of Wednesday afternoon.
Minnesota at Detroit
Divisional matchups have watched the ‘under’ go 29-14 (67%) this season and this particular series has leaned heavily to the low side recently. Seven of the last eight games between the pair have watched the ‘under’ cash and that includes their first meeting this season in Week 4 from Minnesota.
In that outcome, the Lions captured a 14-7 win over the Vikings and the ‘under’ (43½) was never in doubt. This week’s total has been pushed up to 45 and the adjustment is fair considering both clubs have improved offensively since their first meeting.
In the first encounter on Oct. 1, Detroit (251 yards) and Minnesota (284) both struggled moving the ball offensively and the result of the game was clearly based on mistakes. The Vikings fumbled three times, which led to 10 points from the Lions and Minnesota also missed a field goal too.
This was the third start in 2017 for Vikings quarterback Case Keenum and he only completed 53.3 percent of his passes (16-of-30), which has been his worst effort this season. Since that setback, the signal caller has been much better and the Vikings have won six straight games while averaging 27 points per game.
Minnesota’s defense has been very strong the last few seasons and this year’s squad is arguably one of the best in the league. Defensively, the Vikings are ranked fourth in scoring (17.2 PPG) and fifth in total yards (290.5 YPG) while the Lions are near the bottom half of the league in both scoring (23.4 PPG, #19) and yards (354.5 YPG, #23). What’s a little surprising is that Detroit has been worse defensively at home (24.8 PPG) compared to its road numbers (22 PPG). If you like to delve deeper into the analytics, the Vikings defensive unit is ranked third in yards per play (4.7) while Detroit (5.6) sits in the bottom third.
Despite being home ‘dogs, the Lions enter this game with some confidence and a three-game winning streak. They’re averaging 31.6 PPG over this span but the defense has surrendered 21.6 PPG to a trio of teams (Packers, Browns, Bears) that aren’t exactly juggernauts.
Prior to the last three wins, the Lions had dropped three in a row to teams that are expected to make this year's playoffs in the Panthers (27-24), Saints (52-38) and Steelers (20-15). The Vikings are currently on pace to make the postseason as well and you wonder if Detroit can finally show up against a top tier opponent.
Coincidentally, these teams played on Thanksgiving Day last season and the Lions won 16-13. It was the fourth straight win on the holiday for Detroit and also the lowest offensive production by the club during this span.
L.A. Chargers at Dallas
The highest total (47½) on Thursday takes place in the late afternoon matchup and it’s not an easy game to handicap. The Chargers (-2) are listed as road favorites and if you look at the early Week 1-16 odds posted by CG Technology, the Las Vegas betting shop had Dallas (-10) as a healthy favorite.
After a rough 0-4 start, the Chargers have won four of six and their defense has been a big part of that success. They’ve allowed 17.2 PPG in their last six games and that’s helped the ‘under’ go 4-2. The Bolts just dropped 54 on the Bills at home last week but that result was assisted with six turnovers caused by their defense.
Meanwhile, Dallas has dropped back-to-back games since running back Ezekiel Elliot started serving his suspension and the offense has been held to a combined 16 points in the losses. QB Dak Prescott has tossed three interceptions and been sacked eight times in his absence. The Cowboys attack will get a boost Thursday with tackle Tyron Smith (groin) returning to the lineup but the defense won’t have linebacker Sean Lee (hamstring).
Dallas has watched the ‘under’ cash in its last three games and when catching points at home, the Cowboys have seen the ‘under’ go 4-0 in those games which includes last week’s result to Philadelphia.
The Chargers have seen both of their games versus NFC East opponents go ‘over’ this season but Dallas has watched eight of its last 10 games against the AFC go ‘under’ the number.
The Cowboys have been a mess defensively on the holiday recently, allowing 30.8 PPG in their last five Thanksgiving Day games. The Chargers haven’t played on the holiday since 1969 when the franchise was part of the AFL.
N.Y. Giants at Washington
This will be the 12th season that the NFL will have a primetime game on Thanksgiving and the ‘under’ has gone 7-4 in the first 11 matchups. This year’s contest will feature the Giants visiting the Redskins and the total is hovering between 44 and 45 points at most betting shops. Both clubs are dealing with a ton of injuries and this could turn out to be a real ugly game to watch. You can always bet the Egg Bowl.
The Giants have watched their total results (5-5) go back and forth all season but Washington has posted a 7-3 lean to the ‘over’ and they enter this game off a pair of shootout losses. While the offense has looked decent (30.5 PPG), the defense was torched for 38 and 34 points and they’re now allowing 26.6 PPG on the season. Only the Indianapolis Colts (28 PPG) are below them in scoring defense. Fortunately for Washington, the Giants have not scored more than 30 points in any of the 27 games with Ben McAdoo as head coach.
New York doesn’t have much firepower (308.5 YPG, 16.2 PPG) offensively due to injuries but based on the Redskins defensive form, you wonder if the Giants can muster up some offense especially after beating Kansas City at home last week. That was just New York’s second victory of the season and after the first one (at Denver), they were brought back to life with a 24-7 drubbing to Seattle.
The last four totals in this series have split 2-2 but the two ‘under’ tickets took place at FedEx Field (19-10, 20-14). All four of those numbers ranged from 45 to 47 points. Weather shouldn’t be a major factor but the temperatures will likely fall into the thirties by kickoff.
Fearless Predictions
As I’ve written many times before in previous holiday installments, if you’re reading this then you’re probably betting and for that, be thankful that you can. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck and Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours!
Best Over: Minnesota-Detroit 45
Best Under: New York-Washington 44½
Best Team Total: Over Minnesota 23½
Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100):
Minnesota-Detroit Over 36½
Los Angeles-Dallas Under 55
New York-Washington Under 53
Thanksgiving Day Essentials
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com
Minnesota (-3, 45) at Detroit
Detroit looks to win a fifth consecutive Thanksgiving Day game, a far cry from the days when watching Lions fans sporting paper bags to hide their faces in shame was as reliable a part of this holiday’s tradition as the turkey and stuffing. To extend the run, they’ll have to do so as a home underdog.
The Vikings (8-2 SU, 7-3 ATS) flexed a little muscle last Sunday, doing so with a quarterback who arguably wouldn’t be on the roster if Sam Bradford and Teddy Bridgewater had each been healthy in training camp. Bridgewater was expected to miss most, if not all of the season, after tearing up his knee in ’16. Recovery has gone well for him and the former first-round pick is healthy enough to claim his job back. Case Keenum isn’t letting that happen.
Although its tremendous defense has done the heavy lifting, Minnesota has managed to score enough to roll off six straight wins, managing at least 20 points in each of the games. Following a 24-7 home win over the Rams on Sunday, Keenum ranks second in the NFL in QBR behind Houston’s Deshaun Watson and has been sacked only once during the winning streak.
Matthew Stafford has been sacked more than any starting quarterback in the NFL besides Indianapolis’ Jacoby Brissett, surpassing Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers. Despite the pressure and an inconsistent running game, he’s been fantastic in spreading the ball around, developing chemistry with Marvin Jones, Jr. in addition to top target Golden Tate. Deep threat Kenny Golladay has gotten healthy of late, so this will be a great test for the Vikings defense, which held Jared Goff and the league’s highest-scoring offense scoreless after surrendering a touchdown on the opening drive.
The Lions (6-4 SU, 5-4-1 ATS) come in on a three-game winning streak themselves, which means there will be a large crowd in store at Ford Field as they look to remain a factor in the NFC postseason race. Currently even with Atlanta and Seattle at 6-4, Detroit doesn’t play another team currently above .500 after this one. That makes this a golden opportunity to get a leg up in the Wild Card race, not to mention pulling the Lions within a win in the NFC North race.
Entering the week, the Vikings were a 1/5 lock at Westgate to win the division, while the odds for the Lions coming back to catch them offered an 11/4 payout. That would almost certainly require a win here, which would mark a second straight Thanksgiving Day win over the Vikings.
Kicker Matt Prater delivered last year’s win with a 40-yard field goal at the final gun, his second kick inside the final 1:45 after being set up by a Bradford interception with 38 seconds left. The teams entered that game 6-4 and gave Detroit the NFC North lead. Green Bay ended up winning the division, but last year’s game ended up making the difference in the Lions making the playoffs ahead of the Vikes, who finished 8-8.
The Lions won the first meeting of this season in Week 4, prevailing 14-7 in Minneapolis by pitching a scoreless second half against the Keenum-led offense. The Vikings literally fumbled the game away, coughing it up three times, so they should be a determined group looking to avoid a season sweep for the second straight year. The Vikings haven’t lost four straight against the Lions since 1963.
Rookie RB Dalvin Cook was still terrorizing defenses and scored Minnesota’s only touchdown in the first meeting, but has since been lost for the seasons. Latavius Murray has his shake back and scored two touchdowns last season, while Jerick McKinnon is jumping over people when he can’t go through them, so their rushing attack remains a threat. Adam Thielen’s 916 receiving yards give him the third-largest output through 10 games behind Randy Moss in the team annals, while Stefon Diggs’ hamstring injury has improved, so Keenum still has plenty of help as he looks to fare better against Detroit’s defense than he did on Oct. 1.
The Vikings have scored an average of 12 points in their three losses to Detroit, so taking some shots downfield may be part of the game plan. If Ziggy Ansah (back) misses another game, the Lions will be down their most effective pass rusher. He’s the main injury concern for either team. The Vikings welcomed back DE Everson Griffen last week and will have their secondary intact with Xavier Rhodes and Andrew Sendejo cleared to work for a group that surrendered their lowest-scoring output of the season.
The Lions have averaged 31.7 points over their three-game surge, but are just 37-38-2 all-time on Thanksgiving despite their run of four straight wins.
L.A. Chargers (-2, 47.5) at Dallas
It’s incredible that just two weeks ago, the Cowboys (5-5, 5-5) opened their November slate with an impressive victory over Kansas City where they imposed their will and the offensive line looked like it had last season, dominating impressively. No one would’ve believed you if you told them you had arrived from the future to declare that the Chargers would be favored in Arlington on Thanksgiving.
Standout left tackle Tyron Smith then aggravated a back injury, hasn’t played since that win and has watch as Dallas has been outscored 64-14 by Atlanta and Philadelphia. His brothers on the offensive line have been manhandled and Dak Prescott has been harassed without him in the mix. Over the past two weeks, Prescott hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass and has been sacked 12 times. The absence has been so glaring that even RB Ezekiel Elliott’s suspension has taken a back seat since his presence wouldn’t have mattered much given the offensive line’s ineptitude.
News that Smith will attempt to play on Thursday was therefore met with great relief given that defensive ends Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa await to feast on any uncertainty along the Dallas’ offensive front. Coming off terrorizing a bad Buffalo o-line and forcing five interceptions from rookie QB Nathan Peterman before creating even more mayhem against Tyrod Taylor, the Chargers were licking their chops and may still be the driving force in this middle game of a Thanksgiving tripleheader.
Despite being under .500 at the 10-game mark, Los Angeles (4-6, 5-4-1) harbors playoff aspirations. Only one game behind the Bills for the No. 6 spot in the AFC, the Chargers are actually a hot streak away from contending for the AFC West crown. A 54-24 win over the Bills opened up a world of possibilities, doubling as the new franchise record for a single-game scoring output and providing hope that a team which has dropped four games by three or fewer points has finally made a breakthrough.
L.A. still has a game at Kansas City to play, but following this one, will host Washington, Cleveland and Oakland in addition to visiting the N.Y. Jets. The rest of the games on the schedule are all winnable if Philip Rivers stays healthy, so you can count on an exciting one since both teams are invested in winning to keep their realistic playoff hopes alive.
The sight of an unhappy Jerry Jones had become a popular internet meme on Thanksgiving for a few years there since the Cowboys had lost three of four prior to last season’s thrilling 31-26 win that was put away by Elliott’s second touchdown run. It was the 10th of 11 consecutive wins Dallas secured last season, but the team had lost its previous two games on turkey day by a 66-24 margin.
Besides Smith and Elliott, the Cowboys have missed the services of standout middle linebacker Sean Lee, who has already been ruled out due to a hamstring injury. Key LB Anthony Hitchens is also questionable for the Cowboys, as is guard La’el Collins. DE DeMarcus Lawrence will play through a shoulder issue. Kicker Dan Bailey is also attempting to return from a groin injury, but has been replaced effectively by Mike Nugent, who would once again fill in if Bailey can’t go.
The Chargers list tackles Joe Barksdale and Russell Okung as questionable but expect both to play. The same goes for DTs Corey Liuget and Brandon Mebane. L.A. is playing its first Thanksgiving game since the 1960s, before the merger. The Cowboys are 30-18-1.
N.Y. Giants at Washington (-7, 44.5)
Schedule makers meant well when they cooked up the idea of this game being a worthwhile nightcap to the Thanksgiving feast. Unfortunately, similar to what transpired back in 2012 when the butt fumble upstaged a 49-19 Patriots’ rout of the Jets, we have ourselves a laughable matchup.
Washington (4-6, 4-6) hosts New York (2-8, 4-6) in a game between teams realistically eliminated from the NFC’s playoff picture. The Giants come off a 12-9 overtime upset of the Chiefs on Sunday, taking advantage of windy conditions and a rough outing from Alex Smith to pull out an upset that paid as much as +400.
The Redskins were headed to a remarkable upset win over the Saints in New Orleans before an improbable comeback landed the game in overtime. It was a devastating setback for Washington, which led 31-16 with 4:16 remaining but couldn’t stop Drew Brees or rookie Alvin Kamara down the stretch, then couldn’t get anything going offensively in OT.
Making matters worse, Washington lost its most valuable offensive weapon, RB Chris Thompson, to a fractured fibula. He ranked third in the NFL as a receiving threat out of the backfield. QB Kirk Cousins took a few big hits but is expected to be out leading an offense that has lost WR Terrell Pryor, tight end Jordan Reed and multiple offensive linemen. Rookie Samaje Perine will start at running back, Byron Marshall will try and fill Thompson’s shoes and there’s a possibility Pro-Bowl tackle Trent Williams will be among those who can’t participate.
The Giants won’t sympathize, but can, having lost the likes of Odell Beckham, Brandon Marshall and multiple offensive linemen themselves. Second-year WR Sterling Shepard came off an injury and had five receptions for 70 yards to provide some hope, but he missed last week’s games due to migraine and may not play here either. Head coach Ben McAdoo is a lame duck, so it remains to be seen whether the Giants will come out to play for him on a holiday. It’s likely for that reason that Washington is such a resounding favorite since they’re in the same boat health-wise.
The teams will play the final week of the regular season in what will almost certainly be a meaningless game. This one will draw more eyeballs due to people digesting their turkey dinners and attempting to close out parlays. Unlike the other two games that will be played in domed stadiums, weather will be a factor in Landover. Temperatures are expected to be in the low 30s, but the wind gusts expected should have a minimal impact.