College Football betting trends, odds and predictions for Thursday, November 23rd, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
OLE MISS (5 - 6) at MISSISSIPPI ST (8 - 3) - 11/23/2017, 7:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
MISSISSIPPI ST is 1-1 against the spread versus OLE MISS over the last 3 seasons
MISSISSIPPI ST is 1-1 straight up against OLE MISS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
MISSISSIPPI @ MISSISSIPPI STATE
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Mississippi's last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Mississippi's last 5 games when playing on the road against Mississippi State
Mississippi State is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
Mississippi State is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Ole Miss at Miss State
By Joe Nelson
VegasInsider.com
The Egg Bowl will be playing on Thanksgiving night for the first time since 2013 as the nation’s 10th longest uninterrupted rivalry will open the final weekend of the SEC regular season. The stakes are lower than a few seasons ago but this year’s game will carry great importance to the players and coaches.
Here is a look at Thursday Night Football as Mississippi and Mississippi State face off.
Matchup: Mississippi Rebels at Mississippi State Bulldogs
Venue: At Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville, Mississippi
Time/TV: Thursday, Nov. 23, 7:30 PM ET ESPN
Line: Mississippi State -16, Over/Under 62½
Last Meeting: 2016, Mississippi State (+10) 55, at Mississippi 20
After a post-game brawl in 1926 Ole Miss and Mississippi A&M (now Mississippi State) created a Golden Egg trophy for the victor although the rivalry game wasn’t referred to colloquially as the ‘Egg Bowl’ until 1979. While both programs have had some ups and downs the 2014 meeting was one of the high points of the rivalry with two highly ranked teams with #19 Ole Miss upsetting then #4 Mississippi State 31-17. This year’s game doesn’t carry the same weight but the intensity on the field will remain strong and there are plenty of storylines on the sidelines as well.
Last February Ole Miss announced a self-imposed one-year postseason ban due to allegations of violations. As more details emerged, head coach Huge Freeze resigned in July, leaving after five years with a 39-25 record though hitting a low point with a 5-7 record last season. Matt Luke has been on the staff since 2012 and was named the interim head coach for this season though he is not expected to be a serious candidate moving forward. The Rebels are a bit handcuffed in the upcoming hiring season as the NCAA hasn’t made a final ruling on the case and there could be further sanctions against the school.
Mississippi State was expected to sit at the bottom of the SEC West this season but Dan Mullen has the Bulldogs at 4-3 in league play and 8-3 overall, certainly looking like the 4th or 5th team in the SEC pecking order in the bowl season as an attractive bowl bid should be coming to the program. Despite being on the hot seat himself only a few years ago Mullen has emerged as hot property after sustained success in Starkville, now 69-45 in nine seasons with his quarterback development reputation highly regarded. That has meant his name has been thrown around as a possible candidate for several of the high profile vacancies around the country with his decision capable of having a domino impact at several programs.
The three losses for Mississippi State this season have come against the three SEC teams still in the running for a SEC championship and a College Football Playoff spot, falling early in the season in lopsided results at Georgia and at Auburn. Mississippi State rallied to win the next four games and two weeks ago gave #1 Alabama a great test with a 31-24 loss in Starkville, a game the Bulldogs led into the 4th quarter and lost in the final minute. That has been the only home loss for Mississippi State this season with a notable 37-7 home win over LSU in September on the resume.
Nick Fitzgerald is 11th in the SEC in quarterback rating but that doesn’t do justice to the season he has had. While not a prolific passer he has thrown for 15 touchdowns and should eclipse 2,000 passing yards by season’s end and his completion rate has gone up slightly compared with last season. Fitzgerald’s main value is his size and mobility at 6’5” and rushing for 968 net yards at this point in the season on 6.1 yards per carry. He has accounted for 29 touchdowns this season and can carry his team at times with junior running back Aeris Williams also likely to top 1,000 yards rushing this season as the other major piece of the offense.
On defense junior Montez Sweat has nine sacks to match the lead in the SEC and Mississippi State is ninth nationally in total defense surrendering only 297 yards per game. The Bulldogs are 20th in the nation in scoring defense allowing 19.5 points per game and five times this season the Bulldogs have allowed 14 or fewer points.
The opportunity for Mississippi State in this matchup should come on the ground as Ole Miss rates 118th nationally allowing 5.4 yards per rush. The Rebels have allowed 35.2 points per game on the season but the offense has been able to win several higher scoring shootouts.
The season started poorly for Ole Miss with losses in the first three major conference tests of the season including falling 66-3 at Alabama and 44-23 at Auburn. Sophomore quarterback Shea Patterson was on pace to be one of the most productive passing quarterbacks in the nation but he was injured in the October loss to LSU. While a lighter stretch of the schedule has played a role, junior Jordan Ta’amu has taken over the position with even stronger numbers, completing nearly 70 percent of his passes on 9.5 yards per attempt and he delivered a signature performance in the narrow win at Kentucky in early November.
Senior Jordan Wilkins has gained 6.1 yards per carry out of the backfield and the Rebels have leaned on him more in recent weeks with 271 yards the past two games as he could have a shot to eclipse 1,000 yards on the season this week going against a fairly stingy MSU run defense. Sophomore A.J. Brown has been the top receiver with 1,085 yards on 69 catches including 10 touchdowns despite missing a game early in the season.
While the Rebels won’t make a bowl game they can reach 6-6 with a win in the finale for a season of improvement after going 5-7 last season after losing in the Egg Bowl last season in what was a bowl elimination game. The Rebels have only played one road game since the first weekend in October but they did win that game at Kentucky for the only road win of the season and the Rebels only had one road win last year.
For Mississippi State this is a chance to win consecutive Egg Bowls for the first time since 2011 and a chance to bolster its postseason position. Most projections call for the Bulldogs to face a prominent Big Ten team like Penn State or Michigan in either the Outback Bowl or Citrus Bowl for an attractive high profile New Year’s Day draw for the program. A loss could mean sliding to potentially the December 30 Liberty Bowl vs. a Big XII team.
Last season: This was a bowl elimination game between 5-6 teams last season in Oxford. It was a back-and-forth first half with a 27-20 lead for Mississippi State. That score held until just over five minutes to go in the third quarter before the Bulldogs went on a 28-0 run the close the game for a somewhat misleading 55-20 final result. Mississippi State had just a 566-528 yardage edge and benefitted from a 2-1 turnover edge including a 4th quarter pick-six. Fitzgerald rushed for 258 yards and accounted for five touchdowns while Patterson threw for 320 yards but had two interceptions to match his two touchdowns.
Historical Trends:
Mississippi State has won and covered in five of eight meetings since 2009.
Mississippi State hasn’t been a double-digit favorite in this series since 2011 and before that not since 1981.
The Bulldogs are 7-2 S/U in Starkville in this series since 1999 though just 5-4 ATS and they lost the last home meeting in 2015.
Under Mullen the Bulldogs are 39-1 S/U as a double-digit favorite but just 20-20 ATS.
In that span Mississippi State is 40-20 S/U at home with a 33-25-1 ATS record at Davis Wade, going 5-1 ATS at home this season.
Ole Miss is 15-27 S/U and 18-23-1 ATS on the road since 2009. Going back to 1997 the Rebels are 29-18-1 ATS as a double-digit underdog.
NCAAF Game of the Day: Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State
Covers.com
Ole Miss Rebels at Mississippi State Bulldogs (-14.5, 65)
Although Mississippi State's Nick Fitzgerald had already emerged as one of the best dual-threat quarterbacks in the country well prior to last season's Egg Bowl, his record-breaking rushing performance in that contest pretty much cemented that label. The dangerous junior signal-caller looks to maintain the 17th-ranked Bulldogs' recent dominance in their Thanksgiving Day rivalry game with Ole Miss when they host the Rebels.
Fitzgerald accounted for 367 total yards - including a school-record 258 yards on the ground - and five total touchdowns (two rushing) in last year's 55-20 thrashing of Ole Miss, allowing Mississippi State to avenge a defeat in 2015 and take home the Golden Egg Trophy for the fifth time in eight tries under coach Dan Mullen. The Bulldogs reached the eight-win mark for the fifth time under Mullen following last weekend's 28-21 thrilling victory at Arkansas, getting two touchdown passes from Fitzgerald over the final 3:57 to pull it out. Win or lose, the Rebels will be playing their final game of the season as a result of a self-imposed postseason ban, which came in February after the NCAA found the program committed multiple violations under former coach Hugh Freeze. Ole Miss guaranteed itself its second straight non-winning season after losing at home to Texas A&M 31-24 over the weekend.
LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened the Bulldogs as 16-point home favorites for this rivalry matchup and were bet down to -14.5. They are currently 15-point chalk. The total menawhile, hit the board at 62.5 and bettors like the Over, moving the number to 65, where it currently sits. Check out the complete line history here.
INJURY REPORT:
Ole Miss - WR M. Pack (Probable Thursday, concussion), QB J. Ta'amu (Probable Thursday, throat), DB J. Julius (Questionable Thursday, concussion), WR V. Jefferson (Questionable Thursday, elbow), OL A. Givens (Out Thursday, concussion), RB D. Pennamon (Out for season, knee).
Mississippi State - WR K. Mixon (Probable Thursday, knee), WR G. Myles (Questionable Thursday, foot), DB D. Bryant (Questionable Thursday, upper body), LB D. Harris (Out Thursday, thigh), WR D. Gray (Out for season, hernia).
ABOUT OLE MISS (5-6, 3-7-1 ATS, 9-2 O/U): A.J. Brown finished with seven catches for 70 yards and a touchdown against the Aggies; the 6-2, 225-pound sophomore wideout leads the conference in receptions (69), receiving yards (1,085) and receiving TDs (10). Senior running back Jordan Wilkins, who rushed for a season-high 147 yards on a career-high 19 carries last weekend and is averaging 108.2 yards on the ground over his last four outings, is 99 yards shy of becoming the Rebels' first 1,000-yard rusher since Dexter McCluster in 2009. Gary Wunderlich is on the verge of breaking multiple school records, needing one more field goal, two more points and one more successful point-after try to break Jonathan Nichols' career marks in each category.
ABOUT MISSISSIPPI STATE (8-3, 7-4 ATS, 4-7 O/U): Fitzgerald extended his own SEC record for 100-yard rushing games by a quarterback to 14 after rushing for 101 against the Razorbacks and needs only 52 more yards to move past ex-Bulldog Dak Prescott (2,521) and into third place on the conference's all-time rushing list from a quarterback. Since totaling 73 yards on the ground in back-to-back losses to Georgia and Auburn at the end of September, Aeris Williams is averaging 89.2 yards rushing over his last six outings and needs 56 more to reach 1,000 for the season. Despite giving up two sacks versus Arkansas, the Bulldogs have allowed a league-low eight - tied for the fourth-best mark in the country.
TRENDS:
* Mississippi State is 5-1 ATS in its last six home games.
* Over is 8-1 in Ole Miss' last nine conference games.
* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings at Mississippi State.
* Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
CONSENSUS: Bettors are throwing records out the window in this rivalry matchup, with 60 percent of wagers on the underdog Rebels to cover the spread. When it comes to the total, bettors are siding with the Over, with 57 percent of wagers to surpass the number.