NFL betting trends, odds and predictions for Thursday, November 16th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
TENNESSEE (6 - 3) at PITTSBURGH (7 - 2) - 11/16/2017, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 8-22 ATS (-16.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 103-73 ATS (+22.7 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 50-30 ATS (+17.0 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 90-63 ATS (+20.7 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
TENNESSEE @ PITTSBURGH
Tennessee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tennessee's last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Pittsburgh's last 9 games
Pittsburgh is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
StatFox Super Situations
TENNESSEE at PITTSBURGH
Play Against - Road underdogs vs. the money line (TENNESSEE) after gaining 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in last game against opponent after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 3 straight games 39-6 over the last 10 seasons. ( 86.7% | 0.0 units )
NFL Week 11
Titans (6-3) @ Steelers (7-2) — Steelers are quiet 7-2; they won last four games (3-1 vs spread), are 2-1 as a home favorite, with wins by 17-15 points and a loss to Jaguars. Tennessee won its last four games, last three by 3-3-4 points; Mariota is banged up (shoulder/ankle)- check status. Titans are 2-2 on road, losing at Houston, Miami, beating Jaguars/Browns- they were favored in 3 of those 4 games. Steelers won four of last six series games; Titans are 2-3 in last five visits to Steel City, losing by 27-3-21 points. AFC North favorites are 4-7 vs spread outside the division, 3-4 at home; AFC South underdogs are 7-4, 4-3 on road. Over is 6-2 in Titans’ last eight games; under is 8-1 in Steeler games this season.
Armadillosports.com
Steelers host Titans
StatFox.com
The Titans will be looking to make a statement with a victory over the Steelers in Pittsburgh on Thursday.
The Titans are rolling right now, as they have won four straight games heading into this one. Last week, Tennessee defeated Cincinnati 24-20 as a five-point home favorite. The Titans are currently tied with the Jaguars for the top spot in the AFC South, so they will definitely be hoping to earn a victory here and keep themselves near the top. The Steelers, meanwhile, have also won four straight heading into this game. Pittsburgh has a comfortable lead atop the AFC North, but that doesn’t mean the team will be playing with any less intensity in this game. The Steelers know how important it is to be playing at home in the postseason and they can’t afford to be losing games like these if they are going to be hosting anybody in the playoffs. One trend that should make Tennessee feel pretty good about this game is the fact that the Steelers are a lousy 16-29 ATS off two or more consecutive Unders with head coach Mike Tomlin around. The Titans are, however, an even more pathetic 0-6 ATS in road games after failing to cover in four or five of their previous six games under head coach Mike Mularkey.
The Titans have a chance to really show the world what they’re made of on Thursday, so expect this team to play a very good game in this one. QB Marcus Mariota is the one that really needs to show up for Tennessee, though. Mariota hasn’t quite taken the leap that many were expecting he would this year, but he has still been solid for the Titans. Mariota also happens to finally be over his hamstring issues, as he rushed for 51 yards against the Bengals last week. When he is able to run like that, his game is one of the toughest to plan for in the league. And he should be able to find some success against Pittsburgh, as this defense is good but also tends to allow some big plays at times. It would really help Mariota if the running game can get going, though. RB DeMarco Murray had a good game against the Bengals last week, rushing for 42 yards and two touchdowns and also catching four passes for 30 yards and a score. He won’t be able to find the end zone that many times again here, but it’d be huge for the team if he can run the ball effectively. Defensively, the Titans will be focused on stopping the run here. The Steelers can obviously make plays in the passing game, but containing Le’Veon Bell is a must.
The Steelers can improve to 7-3 with a victory over the Titans on Thursday and RB Le’Veon Bell should be looking forward to this one. Bell has been held to just 156 yards rushing over the past two games, which is disappointing for a player of his caliber. Look for him to break out in this one, and don’t be shocked if he rushes for at least 130 here. The Titans have a solid rushing defense, but Bell will be eager to put on a show in this primetime game. And when Bell is drawing all of the attention from Tennessee’s defense, QB Ben Roethlisberger and this passing game will strike. Roethlisberger has had a down year in 2017, but he is still a threat to put up some big numbers once in a while. That is the case now more than any other time this year, too. That’s because WR JuJu Smith-Schuster has emerged as a stud next to WR Antonio Brown, who is already one of the league’s best receivers. Over the past two games, Smith-Schuster has racked up 290 receiving yards and two touchdowns. He has now scored in three straight games and could make some plays here.
TNF - Titans at Steelers
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com
Tennessee at Pittsburgh (-7, 44)
Marcus Mariota picked up the Titans with his third game-winning drive of the season to defeat Cincinnati last week, taking his team 73 yards in 12 plays. Ben Roethlisberger completed his 40th fourth-quarter comeback after a brutal start against the Colts where the Steelers flirted with disaster by going down 17-3 and entering the fourth quarter down by 8.
Neither team is playing particularly well, yet lead their division and have a chance to solidify a run at homefield advantage alongside the Patriots. For the Titans, a team that has a negative point differential despite their winning record and four-game winning streak, this is an opportunity to take a huge step forward.
The Titans' victims on this current run, the Colts, Browns, Ravens and Bengals, all have losing records, yet they've covered only once in the last six games. While they've defeated Seattle at home, beating the Steelers on the road could really provide a psychological boost that would ultimately make the difference in finishing ahead of Jacksonville.
Mariota has played hurt most of the season -- Tennessee's last loss came in Miami with Matt Cassel at the helm -- and his style is risky since he consistently takes hits, but this is an opportunity to excel with a full compliment of weapons against an excellent defense.
Receivers Corey Davis and Eric Decker are just now healthy enough to start producing results alongside tight ends Delanie Walker and Jonnu Smith. With Derrick Henry and DeMarco Murray running the ball behind an offensive line that's back intact, they've got a fighting chance to continue improving despite beginning a stretch of four of five on the road.
Pittsburgh has seen the 'under' prevail in eight of their nine contests. The defense that has helped key this season's success by surrendering 18 or fewer points in seven of nine is fast and really gets after teams. They attack and have shined in the red zone against the likes of Alex Smith and Matthew Stafford, holding Detroit to five field goals. Tennessee has an opportunity to frustrate a Steelers offense that ranks 31st in the red zone, as 80-year-old Dick LeBeau returns to face his long-time former employer.
Protege Keith Butler has done a great job with the Steelers this season, helping pick up offensive coordinator Todd Haley for his conservative, often crippling approach. Roethlisberger has been off at times this season, but with weapons Antonio Brown and LeVeon Bell both healthy, Pittsburgh has a chance to produce more points.
Bell ran for over 200 yards the last time these teams got together. Brown has seen rookie Juju Smith-Schuster and Martavis Bryant step up of late, so Roethlisberger has plenty of options as he looks to continue a run that has seen him win five straight night games, improving a 10-1 mark in primetime. The Steelers will be wearing all black "Color Rush" uniforms and be the sharper-looking group on the field unless you're a big fan of that smurf-looking Titans Blue. A clear crisp night with temperatures in the high 30s is expected.
Tennessee Titans
Season win total: 9 (Over -110, Under -110)
Odds to win AFC South: 10/11 to 5/4
Odds to win AFC: 15/1 to 15/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 30/1 to 30/1
Pittsburgh Steelers
Season win total: 10.5 (Over -150, Under +130)
Odds to win AFC North: 1/60 to Off board
Odds to win AFC: 3/2 to 9/5
Odds to win Super Bowl: 4/1 to 4/1
LINE MOVEMENT
The Titans (6/5) climbed over the Texans and Colts as the favorites in the AFC South following Week 1 and remain locked in with Jacksonville as near-even money favorites since both enter Week 11 with identical 6-3 records. Pittsburgh opened the regular season as a heavy 2/5 favorite to capture the AFC South, was 1-to-60 entering last week and have seen that number currently come off the board since only a total collapse would prevent them from claiming the division given their three-game edge over Baltimore and a 4-game edge over Cincinnati.
The Steelers opened the season as a 5/1 choice to win the AFC and were 10/1 to win the Super Bowl, numbers that trailed only the Patriots and Raiders at the time. Their odds have only improved throughout the year as the wins have piled up leaving them as the second choice behind the Patriots. Tennessee opened at 20/1 to win it all and 10/1 to capture the AFC and have seen its odds decrease only slightly.
As far as this matchup is concerned, the Steelers opened the week as a 7-point favorite and have seen it barely budge. The total opened at 44 and has similarly not moved much. Pittsburgh is a -300 money line favorite, though Westgate has moved it to -350. A Titans outright win pays out in the +250 to +275 range.
ODDSMAKER'S TAKE
Scott Cooley of Bookmaker.eu provides info on what his shop is seeing as far as betting trends.
"Very ho-hum as far as action for TNF thus far. We’ve taken a scant amount of smart money on each side," Cooley said Wednesday. "We briefly dropped to -6.5 but are now back at the open. The public likes Pittsburgh to the tune of 65 percent. The money handle is fairly split at 55-45 in favor of the home squad."
Bookmaker also has a prop available that has the Steelers +200 to earn the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs. The field, which the Titans are obviously a part of, are +2000. New England is the current favorite at -400.
INJURY CONCERNS
The Titans are the healthier group here since Marcus Mariota has overcome shoulder and ankle injuries enough to come into this one good to go despite the short week. He'll have guard Quinton Spain back on the starting offensive line after missing time with turf toe. Tight end Delanie Walker (wrist) has also been playing hurt but is also going to be in the mix to help attack the Steelers.
Pittsburgh's primary area of concern is in its defensive backfield, where CB Joe Haden has been ruled out and safety Mike Mitchell is questionable due to an ankle injury. LB James Harrison may also potentially be sidelined, so the defense might be short-handed.
RECENT MEETINGS (Pittsburgh 4-2 SU, 2-4 ATS last six; UNDER 3-3)
11/17/14 Pittsburgh 27-24 at Tennessee (TEN +5.5, 45.5)
9/8/13 Tennessee 16-9 at Pittsburgh (TEN +6, 42)
10/11/12 Tennessee 26-23 vs. Pittsburgh (TEN +6.5, 43)
10/9/11 Pittsburgh 38-17 vs. Tennessee (PIT -3, 40)
9/19/10 Pittsburgh 19-11 at Tennessee (PIT +6, 37)
9/10/09 Pittsburgh 13-10 OT vs. Tennessee (TEN +6.5, 35)
TITANS AS A ROAD UNDERDOG
Tennessee has only been in this situation once, losing to Miami 16-10 as a one-point underdog. They've actually been favored on three other road ventures, winning outright twice while going 1-2 ATS. They were 3-3 SU/ATS as an away 'dog in 2016, beating the Lions, Dolphins and Chiefs.
STEELERS AS A HOME FAVORITE
Pittsburgh is 2-1 at home thus far and is beginning a stretch where it will play five of its last seven at Heinz Field as it looks to ensure that the AFC playoffs go through its house as opposed to Foxboro. Including last season's wild card win over the Dolphins, the Steelers were 7-1 straight up at home in this role in 2016, going 4-2-1 ATS.
NEXT WEEK'S NUMBERS POSTED
The Westgate opens its advance lines for the following week on Tuesdays and Week 12 has the Steelers back in prime time on Sunday night as a 12.5-point favorite at home against the Aaron Rodgers-less Packers. The Titans will be home and are a 6.5-point favorite against the New York Jets.
Thursday Night Football Betting Preview: Titans at Steelers
Covers.com
Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7, 44)
The Pittsburgh Steelers have not looked the part of a dominant team but they keep finding ways to win and are tied with the New England Patriots for the best record in the AFC. The Steelers will go for their fifth consecutive victory when they host the visiting Tennessee Titans on Thursday night in a matchup of division leaders.
Pittsburgh extended its winning streak in dramatic fashion, rallying from a 14-point deficit in the second half to beat Indianapolis 20-17 on a last-second field goal by Chris Boswell. "There was a lot of negativity that we will talk about," Steelers coach Mike Tomlin said after his team improved to 5-1 on the road. "But we'll talk about negativity with a win. That's my preference." The Titans also have won four in a row to join Jacksonville atop the AFC South, rallying for a last-minute 24-20 win over Cincinnati -- its third straight victory over an AFC North rival of Pittsburgh. "I use the word resilient a lot, but I think that's the makeup of this team," Tennessee coach Mike Mularkey said. "It's amazing that they believe in themselves, they just know we always have a chance to win."
LINE HISTORY: The Steelers opened as 6.5-point home favorites and as of Wednesday night that number has been bet up slightly to -7. The total hit betting boards at 43.5 and has been bumped up slightly to 44. View the complete line history here.
POWER RANKINGS: Titans (-1.5) - Steelers (-3.5) + home field (-3) = Steelers -5.
INJURY REPORT:
Titans - G Quinton Spain (Probable, Toe), TE Delanie Walker (Probable, Forearm), QB Marcus Mariota (Probable, Ankle), LB Nate Palmer (Questionable, Ankle), LB Aaron Wallace (Questionable, Back), WR Harry Douglas (I-R, Knee), QB Alex Tanney (I-R, Foot), WR Tajae' Sharpe (I-R, Foot), LB Victor Ochi (I-R, Knee).
Steelers - WR Martavis Bryant (Probable, Illness), LB James Harrison (Questionable, Back), TE Vance McDonald (Questionable, Ankle), S Mike Mitchell (Doubful, Ankle), CB Joe Haden (Out, Leg), CB Cameron Sutton (Questionable, Hamstring), LB Keion Adams (I-R, Shoulder).
ABOUT THE TITANS (6-3 SU, 3-5-1 ATS, 6-3 O/U): Tennessee must find a way to get its offense on track on the road after scoring a combined 36 points in its last three away from home, especially with four of the next five games away from Nashville. Quarterback Marcus Mariota has thrown seven touchdown passes against six interceptions, but he has led three-game winning drives during the winning streak and is coming off a 51-yard rushing day versus Cincinnati. Running back DeMarco Murray scored three TDs in last week's win while backup Derrick Henry added 52 yards on 11 carries. Tennessee has tightened up its rushing defense over the past four games, allowing a combined 277 yards in that span.
ABOUT THE STEELERS (7-2 SU, 5-4 ATS, 1-8 O/U): Ben Roethlisberger owns a completion percentage of 61.1 and passer rating of 83.8 - his lowest marks since the 2008 season - but he rallied Pittsburgh with a pair of scoring passes in the second half last week. Le'Veon Bell, who is averaging 29.5 carries the past four games, leads the league with 840 rushing yards while wideout Antonio Brown has an NFL-best 882 yards, although he has only 12 receptions over the past four games. Rookie JuJu Smith-Schuster continues to thrive with a touchdown catch in each of the past three games. Pittsburgh is second in the league, allowing an average of 16.4, and has held its last four opponents to 17 or fewer.
TRENDS:
* Titans are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games in November.
* Steelers are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 6-2 in Titans' last 8 games overall.
* Under is 7-0 in Steelers' last 7 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
* Underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
CONSENSUS: The public is siding with the road underdog Titans at a rate of 54 percent and the Over is getting 60 of the totals action.