College Football Betting News and Notes Saturday, October 21st, 2017

College Football Week 8

Favorites won/covered 5 of last 6 Iowa-Northwestern games; Hawkeyes won three of last four series games- they’re 2-3 in last five visits to Evanston. Iowa split its two road games, winning 44-41 (OT) at Iowa St, losing 17-10 (+4) at Michigan State; Hawkeyes scored 24+ points in their four wins, were held to 19-10 in their two losses- they’re 17-5 vs spread in last 22 road games. Northwestern is 11-20 vs spread in last 31 home games; they’re 2-1 SU at home this year. Big 14 road teams are 15-8 vs spread in conference games.

Michigan State is 5-1, winning road games last two weeks by combined total of 7 points; they’re 12-10 in last 22 games as a home favorite, 3-0 this year. Spartans (-6.5) were upset 24-21 LY at Indiana, their first loss in eight games against the Hoosiers. Indiana hasn’t won/covered in their last six visits here, losing by average score of 46-17. Hoosiers lost in OT to Michigan LW, a tough loss; Indiana is 11-18 in its last 29 games as a road underdog, 0-1 this year. Big 14 home favorites are 5-6 against spread this season.

Underdogs covered six of last seven Wake Forest-Georgia Tech games; Deacons lost four of last five visits to Tech, losing last two, 30-27/30-17. Tech is 8-3 in last 11 series games- they are 3-2 this season with two 1-point losses, 42-41 to Tennessee, 25-24 at Miami. Jackets are 2-0 as a home favorite this year, 5-2 in last 7 tries as a HF. Wake had last week off; they lost to Florida State/Clemson before the bye but have road wins at BC/Appalachian State. Deacons are 8-3 vs spread in last 11 games as a road underdog. ACC home favorites are 3-8 vs spread.

Michigan won its last three games with Penn State; they pounded the Lions 49-10 LY, running ball for 326 yards. Wolverines lost three of last four visits to Happy Valley. Michigan is 5-1 this year but they’ve struggled on offense, have backup QB playing- they’re 4-8 vs spread in last 12 games as a road underdog. Penn State had a bye LW; they’re 6-0, 3-1 vs spread as a home favorite this year; under Franklin, they’re 13-7 as a home favorite. Lions ran ball for only 39-95 yards in their last couple of games. Big 14 home favorites are 5-6 vs spread this season.

Virginia won its last four games, is a surprising 5-1, with home loss to Indiana; Cavaliers are 6-4 vs spread in last ten games as a home favorite (2-0 this year). Virginia is +7 in turnovers; they were + in turnovers in every game but one. In their last two games, Virginia opponents were just 21-60/170 passing. BC beat Louisville 45-42 as a 21.5-point road underdog LW; Eagles are 3-1 as an underdog this year; since 2014, they’re 9-2-1 vs spread as a road underdog. BC ran ball for 364 yards at Louisville last week. These teams haven’t met since 2010.

Navy-Central Florida haven’t played before; UCF is 5-0 this year, beating Memphis 40-13- Navy lost 30-27 at Memphis last week. Knights won 38-10 at Maryland (Terps played #3 QB), 51-23 at Cincinnati in their two road games- under Frost, UCF is 4-0 vs spread as a road favorite. With 28 points their closest wins of year, if UCF has to play a full 60:00, it’ll be new to them. Navy is 5-1 after loss in Memphis LW; their last two games were both decide by a FG. Since 2013, Middies are 4-0 vs spread as a home underdog. Under is 4-2 in Navy games this season.

Oregon lost three of its last four games, giving app 37-49 points in their last two road games. Ducks scored total of 17 points in their last two games- they were 5-13/33 passing in 49-7 loss to Stanford LW. Oregon won its last six games with UCLA (teams last met in ’14), covering four of last five; they won 42-30/24-10 in last two visits to Pasadena. Ducks are 1-3-1 vs spread in last five games as a road underdog. UCLA lost three of last four games, allowing 47+ points in all three losses; they’re 5-12 vs spread in last 17 games as a home favorite.

Arizona ran ball for 425-457 yards in last two games, behind QB Tate, who has 557 of those yards himself. Wildcats are 2-0 on road, winning 63-16 at UTEP, 45-42 at Colorado; they’re 5-4 as road favorites under RichRod. Wildcats were held to 16-24 points in their two losses. Arizona won its last three games with Cal, but teams last met in 2014; Wildcats lost four of last five trips to Berkeley. Golden Bears snapped 3-game skid with shocking 37-3 home win over Wazzu LW. Cal covered all three of its games as a home underdog this season.

Oklahoma State won five of its last seven games with Texas, winning last four visits here (3-0-1 vs spread). Favorites are 7-0-1 vs spread in last eight series games. Cowboys scored 48 ppg in winning its three road games this year- since 2012, they’re 5-9-2 vs spread as a road favorite, 2-1 this season. Texas is 3-3 after tough 29-24 loss to Oklahoma LW; Longhorns played an OT game with K-State the week before that. Last 2+ years, Texas is 3-0-1 vs spread as a home dog. Big X home underdogs are 2-3 against the spread so far this season.

Louisville hammered Florida State 63-20 early LY, outgaining Seminoles 530-284. Cardinals are 1-2 in ACC play vs FSU- they lost 41-21 here in 2015. Cardinals allowed 1,075 yards, 84 points in losing its last two games; they were a 21.5-point fave when they lost to Boston College LW. Louisville split two road games this year, winning 47-35 at UNC, losing 39-25 at NC State two weeks ago. Florida State is 2-3 with shaky wins over Wake Forest (26-19), Duke (17-10); they ran ball for 203-228 yards last two weeks, taking heat off of their true freshman QB.

Home team won last four USC-Notre Dame games; Trojans lost 41-31/14-10 in last two visits to South Bend. Favorites covered last five series games. USC has a very young OL because of injuries; they split two road games, winning 30-20 at Cal, losing 30-27 at Wazzu. Since 2012, Trojans are 3-8 vs spread as a road underdog. Notre Dame is 5-1, losing 20-19 to Georgia at home; Irish ran ball for 674 yards in their last two games- they’re 7-6 vs spread in last 13 games as a home favorite. Pac-12 teams are 11-16 vs spread out of conference, 2-2 as underdogs.

Oklahoma allowed 1,400 yards in its last three games, narrow wins over Baylor (49-41), Texas (29-24), and a 38-31 home loss to Iowa State. Sooners are 8-2 in last ten games, with Kansas State, winning/covering their last four visits to Little Apple- they won 55-0 here two years ago. Oklahoma is 8-5 in its last 13 games as a road favorite. K-State lost its last two games; they were held to 216 yards in 26-6 home loss to TCU LW. Wildcats are 8-3 vs spread in their last 11 games as a home underdog. Big X home underdogs are 2-3 against the spread.

Iowa State is 4-2, with road wins at Akron (41-14), Oklahoma (38-31); they hammered Texas Tech 66-10 LY, after losing previous four games with Tech by average score of 42-27. State lost five of its last six visits to Lubbock (2-4 vs spread). Underdogs are 5-2 vs spread in last seven series games. Texas Tech is 6-1-1 vs spread in its last eight games as a home favorite- they beat Arizona State 52-45 (-7) in only game this year as a home favorite. Home favorites are 4-4 vs spread in Big X games this season. Red Raiders allowed 41+ points in 3 of their last 5 games.

Armadillosports.com

College Football's Biggest Betting Mismatches: Week 8
By: Monty Andrews
Covers.com

Surveying the weekly NCAAF schedule can be a daunting task for even seasoned bettors. So each week, Monty Andrews breaks down some of the underlying betting mismatches on the college football slate, giving you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule.

Oklahoma State at Texas (+7.5, 65.5)

Oklahoma State's offensive gains vs. Texas' D-line struggles

The Oklahoma State Cowboys have surged into the top 10 in the national rankings following last week's blowout win over Baylor - and they'll look to continue their climb this week against host Texas. The Cowboys have bounced back nicely from a disappointing loss to TCU, scoring 100 points in wins over Texas Tech and Baylor while propelling themselves into top spot in the nation in passing yards per game. But it's their overall positive gains that give them a major edge of the Longhorns' suspect defense.

The Cowboys can move the chains with the best of them, averaging better than 411 yards through the air while sitting tied for first in points per game (48.8 ); the 747 yards it gained against the Bears last weekend established a school record. Oklahoma State has also limited yards lost, ranking inside the top-30 nationally in fewest tackles for loss allowed (4.83). Oklahoma State is also one of only 23 teams to have lost fewer than 100 yards on tackles for loss.

The Longhorns will hope to contain the Cowboys' sensational offense, but they aren't in great position to do so. The 264.8 passing yards they allow per game ranks outside the top 100 in Division I, and they rank in the bottom half of the nation in yards allowed per play (5.7). And they haven't had much luck wrapping up opposing teams in the backfield, sitting in a tie for 98th overall in tackles for loss per game (5.0). Look for the Cowboys to chew up positive yardage all game long.

Indiana at Michigan State (-7, 44.5)

Indiana's ball-security issues vs. Michigan State's positive turnover trend

It wasn't pretty, but Michigan State continued its winning ways over the weekend with a 30-27 triumph over Minnesota. Now, the Spartans return home to face an Indiana Hoosiers team that couldn't do what the Spartans did two weeks ago - beat the Michigan Wolverines. Michigan State has used a flurry of turnovers to build a nice winning streak, and will look to keep it going against a visiting Indiana roster that has had a tough time holding on to the football.

The Hoosiers have had a nightmare start to their conference schedule, drawing matchups with Ohio State, Penn State and Michigan; while Indiana actually made a game of it last weekend, the Wolverines prevailed 27-20 to drop Indiana to 0-3 in the Big Ten. The Hoosiers have forced just four turnovers all season while coughing up the football a whopping 13 times; that minus-9 turnover differential is tied for the fifth-worst mark in Division I.

The Spartans have been at the other end of the turnover spectrum, a major reason why Michigan State has kicked off Big Ten Conference play with three consecutive close victories. Michigan State has forced nine turnovers in those contests, including five in its upset victory over the Wolverines. After producing just two turnovers in their first three games, the Spartans have emerged as one of the top ball-hawking teams in the country - and that's bad news for the visiting Hoosiers.

Michigan at Penn State (-9.5, 42)

Michigan's moribund passing game vs. Penn State's premier pass defense

One of the marquee matchups of the week pits the scuffling Wolverines against the red-hot Nittany Lions, who have rolled to six straight wins but will face what is easily their stiffest test of the season. The Wolverines lost to rival Michigan State two weeks ago and looked ordinary in Indiana last week - and they'll need to figure out how to move the football through the air against a Penn State team that has stifled opponents' passing attacks all season long.

Most of the Wolverines' offensive firepower comes on the ground, where their 185 yards-per-game average sits inside the top 50. The passing game has been a major disappointment so far, producing just 191.4 yards per contest - just inside the top 100 in Division I - and only four total touchdowns. The Wolverines have also surrendered 16 sacks through their first six games despite passing on fewer than 42 percent of their total offensive plays.

Suffice to say that this might not be the week that Michigan gets right on offense. Penn State has risen to No. 2 in the rankings on the strength of a unit allowing just nine points per game, and has been elite in all facets of defense. The Nittany Lions limit foes to 167.8 passing yards per game - ninth-fewest in Division I - and have surrendered just three passing TDs through six games. They also have 17 sacks on the season, which bodes poorly for Michigan's mediocre offensive line.

Colorado at Washington State (-10.5, 56.5)

Colorado's third-down struggles vs. WSU's drive-extension skills

A 34-point loss to Cal resulted in a seven-spot drop down the rankings for Washington State, which aims to bounce back from that humiliating defeat at home against struggling Colorado. The Cougars bumbled and stumbled their way through last weekend's 37-3 drubbing, turning the ball over seven times to fall from eighth to 15th in the polls. But Washington State remains a terrific offensive team that should dominate on third downs against a Colorado roster that has struggled at preventing drive extensions.

The Buffaloes are coming off their first conference win of the season - a 36-33 slugfest with host Oregon State - but were fortunate to triumph after allowing the Beavers to gain 569 yards of offense while converting 10 of their 15 third-down situations. The latter stat has been a recurring problem for Colorado this season; it ranks 103rd nationally in third-down conversion rate, allowing teams to get to first down or the end zone a whopping 43.3 percent of the time.

The Cougars should be able to capitalize on Colorado's third-down problems despite going just 4-for-17 in last week's defeat. Despite that poor showing - and a positively dismal 2-for-14 showing against Oregon a week earlier - Washington State still sits 33rd in third-down conversion rate at 44.9 percent. Returning to prominence on third down will no doubt be a priority for the Cougars this week, and they have the right opponent in place for that to happen.

SEC Week 7 Thoughts & Observations!
By Spartan

It is hard to believe we are already reviewing week 7. The SEC is sitting presently with two top five teams. The monster that ate college football (Alabama) and KIrby Smart's Georgia Bulldogs. As I do each week I will offer up some ultra random thoughts and observations about the league. I do tend to veer off course at times so bear with me. I do not script this thing out at all. No time. I just sit down and whatever transfers from brain to fingers is what we will have to live with. I have no axe to grind with any program. I am a Missouri fan so I have no right to talk smack with anyone. Maybe when basketball season rolls around that will change some. I suspect it will. The Tigers are going to be good.

Well I will start with the big dog on the block. Alabama rolled the Piglets as everyone and their deranged uncle knew they would. I had actually been betting the Tide and laying some serious chalk but the odds makers are making wagering on their games just about impossible. The numbers on these spreads are getting to be epic. Bama scored on the first play and then never looked back. They went on and beat down Arkansas by a final of 41-9. The thing is you pretty much have the feeling that this team can beat teams by just about however much they feel like it. I thank the lord every day that Mizzou is not on their schedule this season. My god, the carnage would be devastating. BUT, next season the Tigers do play down there and myself and some of my crazy friends will make the trek. I've never personally observed a public execution. First time for everything. The Tide did turn the ball over two times in this game so I am pretty certain Nick Saban tossed and turned over that most of saturday day. This week the turn their wrath on poor Butch Jones and Tennessee. This is the CBS saturday afternoon game and the network cannot be happy. It's my understanding the viewership ratings with their games are down 30%. That is bad news. That is a large block of the audience. The thing is folks get bored with beat downs. This week anyone tuning in to that Vols and Tide game will know it will be decided early on. I don't imagine there will be many sticking around by the final quarter. Hard to blame them. I mean I know the players and coaches relatives will still be watching but that does not quite cut the mustard.

I did have a play that was not real popular last week when I took LSU and the points hosting Gus and his Auburn Tigers. Problem was it was loaded as a free play and I meant to also add it into the system as a client play and somehow forgot. So that pissed me off. I mean it is nice to provide the freebie but not getting it loaded as a client play was aggravating. I had a strong feeling that Coach O and his kids were going to be ready to rumble. I think that Troy game could have had a couple of end results. The team could have totally given up and the season could have spiraled out of control. Or they could man up and deal with things and go fight. I had a feeling they would do the latter and the last two weeks they have. Now this week I see another danger spot for them. They are taking the road in the role of favorite at Ole Miss. I fully expect this to be a real dog fight. The Rebels are a very live dog here guys. I like LSU personally better in the role of dog and I think Coach O coaches his team up much more in those circumstances than when they are taking the field as favorites. I was at a good buddies wedding saturday night and missed much but of course the phone was always handy. When I saw Auburn was up 20-0 in the second quarter I thought good lord did I miss read that. But to their credit LSU kept fighting and actually won the thing 27-23. Fact is Auburn has not won a football game in Baton Rouge now since 1999.

My top release last week in college was Texas A&M as they traveled down to the swamp to meet the Gators. I had Kevin Sumlin's Aggies +3 points. I loved the game and thankfully it played out fine for us as they won the thing outright 19-17. Just think how differently this team would be perceived had they not blown that huge lead in the opener out in Los Angeles against the Bruins. Hell, their only loss is to that monster Bama. And there was also talk on the air waves about Sumlin still being in trouble with his job. How they were going to make a run at James Franklin at Penn State. That made me frankly want to vomit. Sumlin is a good coach, a very good coach. No, he is not Nick Saban Only Nick Saban is that man. But Sumlin is a very good football coach. I think he needs to have a strong coach on his staff to work with his quarterbacks but all in all the man can coach a football team and has proven it. I would take him here at Mizzou in a heart beat. This season has just been an uphill battle for the poor Gators. Nothing much has gone their way. Suspensions, injuries, just one of those years. Their defense plays their guts out weekly but they need more help. I am sure that sounds REAL familiar to Michigan fans up in the Big 10.

I had a play on South Carolina +2.5 last saturday in Knoxville against Butch Jones and his Volunteers. I expected Tennessee to come out and brawl. I fully expected a huge effort early on. My concern was them sustaining it for four full quarters. I can honestly say this game played out pretty much exactly as I envisioned. Wish that was always the case. The Cocks went into Knoxville and put forth a workmanlike effort and prevailed in the game 15-9. It was clearly no thing of beauty. That Tennessee offense is, well, offensive to the eye. That Tennessee team in the second half was just a sad thing to behold. I don't see how Jones survives this. No way, no how. Their red zone offense is inept. That is the most accurate word that comes to mind. I could go on and on about Tennessee but I never have been one to pile on. It is what it is. It's a program that should be much stronger than what it is.

Missouri traveled down to Athens and met up with the surging Georgia Bulldogs. Several of my friends make the trip. I could not go as I stayed behind for my buddy's daughters wedding. It was an excuse that came in very handy. Truth to told my enthusiasm was limited at best for making that trip. I was talking with one of the guys at our softball game tuesday night and he said the first half was great. He said the fans down there were very quiet. Mizzou made some big plays and were right there in the game for the first half. Of course over the course of two full halves the stronger team will generally emerge and restore order and that is exactly what happened here. Bottom line is Mizzou is just not a very good team, at all. Believe it or not the next couple of weeks are actually huge for Barry Odom and his staff. This saturday the Tigers host Idaho. They are presently a two touchdown favorite. I personally think Odom's goose is already cooked but if the Tigers fail to win this game against Idaho at home they will have officially hit rock bottom. I personally think it is a possibility. Drew Lock has a great arm. Beyond that there is little to like about this team. Crockett runs hard. See, I'm trying. But anyway, Mizzou has Idaho and U-Conn coming up. They desperately need to win these games. I cannot stress this enough.

Vanderbilt's season is flushing down the toliet. Man how things have gone south since that saturday night win over Kansas State. They scored an impressive 35 points against Ole Miss, problem is the Rebels put a 57 spot on them. Ole Miss rolled up over 600 yards of offense on the Commodores. Remember when folks were chirping about how good this Vandy defense is? I do. Well, good units don't get steam rolled allowing over 600 freaking yards of offense. They have allowed 239 points in the last four games combined. I do like young Shea Patterson at QB for the Rebels. He can wing it. Ole Miss faces LSU this week and I give the Rebels way more than a fighting chance here.

I had BYU +24 last week against Mississippi State. They lost by 25. Don't you just love it when that happens. It was my only loss with an SEC team all week and by a lousy point. The Cougars have fallen on tough times. Clearly. But it was a nice win for the Bulldogs and Dan Mullen. The Bulldogs dominated the game and the outcome was never in question. Hard to believe BYU is 1-6. When the schedules came out this appeared to be a more marquee type game than it played out to be. The Cougars are just kind of off the rails now. This week the Bulldogs remain at home and are laying 12 points to Kentucky who had a bye last week. I will be a little surprised if the Wildcats cover this number. Kentucky is not all that. I think their secondary is weak, Lock from Mizzou exposed that fact. This might be a game for the first half but I am thinking the Bulldogs pull away here.

It will be interesting to see how Auburn responds this week after blowing that game against LSU. They obviously have a game on deck they should win against the Hogs. But, it is a road game and Arkansas is at least capable. Gus can go from beloved to hot seat on a weekly basis.

ACC Report - Week 8
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com

Louisville at Florida State

The Cardinals and Seminoles hook up in Tallahassee, and it's a win or go home game for both. Both teams already have three losses, and a fourth loss would be unchartered territory, especially for FSU. The Cards are coming off a shocking 45-42 loss at home to Boston College, their second straight loss and fifth consecutive non-cover. FSU picked up a feel-good road win at Duke last weekend, but they're still 0-3-2 ATS overall on the season. The offense is struggling mightily behind a true freshman quarterback following the loss of Deondre Francois in their opener vs. Alabama. The 'under' has connected in each of the team's five games to date, as they're averaging an un-FSU-like 18.2 PPG on offense. Louisville shut down Murray State and Kent State in two out of conference games, but they have allowed 35 or more points in each of their four confernce tilts.

Pittsburgh at Duke

The Panthers head down to Durham to battle the Blue Devils in a game between two teams desperate for a win. the Panthers have won just once in the past six outings, and they're 1-3-2 ATS during the span. The Blue Devils opened 4-0 SU/ATS in their first four outings, but they have dropped three in a row inside the conference while going 0-2-1 ATS. The 'under' has connected in five in a row for Duke, too. The under has also been a popular play for Pitt, going 4-0 in their past four on the road and 3-0-1 in their past four overall. However, the over is 8-3 across their past 11 league games and 7-2 over their past nine against teams with a winning overall mark.

Boston College at Virginia

The Cavaliers are off to their best start since 2007, and they're just one win shy of becoming bowl eligible for the first time since 2011. They are expected to get their win Saturday against visiting Boston College, as UVA is a seven-point favorite as of Thursday morning. B.C. will be a tough out, as they stunned Louisville on the road last weekend and won't be intimidated. The Eagles have covered four in a row, and four of their past five league games. They're also 9-4 ATS over their past 13 road games and 8-1 ATS over the past nine road outings against teams with a winning home mark. The Cavs are 4-0 ATS over their past four, too, but just 4-10-1 ATS over the past 15 at home against teams with a losing road record. The under has been hot for both, going 36-14-1 over their past 51 road games, and 37-17-2 over the past 56 league games. The under is 6-1 in UVA's past seven home games, and 19-7-1 over their past 27 conference tilts.

Syracuse at Miami-Florida

What can Syracuse do for an encore? They stunned Clemson last weekend by a 27-24 score, tossing a huge monkey wrench into the ACC picture and national title picture. That's what kind of weekend it was all across college football last week. Miami needed a miracle fourth-down conversion to get into the red zone and earn a last-second field goal to top Georgia Tech. As such, the Canes moved to 6-1 ATS over their past seven ACC games, 4-1 ATS over their past five against teams with a winning overall mark and 8-2 ATS over their past 10 overall. 'Cuse is 5-0 ATS across their past five against winning teams, and 3-0-1 ATS in the past four league games. The favorite has hit six of the past seven, and the Orange are 1-4 ATS in the past five meetings. The under might be the play here. The under is 9-1 in Syracuse's past 10 league games, and 16-5 over their past 21 overall. The under is 5-1 in Miami's past six, and 5-1 in their past six league games.

North Carolina at Virginia Tech

The Tar Heels were expected to be a top-tier team in the ACC, but they have lost six of seven games and are already in danger of being eliminated from the bowl picture with a loss. Injuries have crushed Larry Fedora's bunch, and they find themselves a three-touchdown underdog heading to Blacksburg. Hey, for what it's worth, their only victory of the season came in the Commonwealth of Virgina, a 53-23 win at Old Dominion on Sept. 16. That was also their only coverage, as they're 1-6 ATS overall and 0-4 ATS since that victory. The 'under' is also 4-0 during the span, as their offense has wilted with inexperienced players at the skill positions and shaky offensive line play. The under is also 4-0-1 in Virginia Tech's past five home games, 13-3 in their past 16 following a bye and 20-8 over the past 28 inside the conference.

Wake Forest at Georgia Tech

The Demon Deacons head down Interstate 85 to Atlanta to battle the Yellow Jackets. The Ramblin' Wreck should be awfully angry after letting their upset bid slip away in sloppy, wet conditions in Miami on a fluke fourth-quarter deflection and first down. The Demon Deacons are an impressive 7-1-1 ATS over their past nine conference tilts, and they're 5-1 ATS over their past six inside the conference. Wake is 8-2 ATS over the past 10 road outings, too. Georgia Tech has covered nine in a row, and they're 5-0 ATS over their past five against teams with a winning overall mark. The underdog is 6-1 ATS in the past seven in this series, with the Deacs 5-2 ATS over the past seven. The under is 5-1 in the past six, too. Under bettors might love this game. The under is 17-4 in Wake's past 21 in the month of October, and 35-17 in their past 52 on the road. The under is 4-1 in Ga. Tech's past five at home, 5-0 in the past five league games and 4-1 in the past five against teams with a winning overall mark.

Bye Week

Clemson, North Carolina State

Big Ten Report - Week 8
By ASAWins.com

Iowa (-1.5) at Northwestern

The Hawkeyes enter this game off a bye. It’s a revenger for Iowa who lost at home to Northwestern 38-31 last year as an 11 point favorite. The Cats outgained the Hawkeyes by 80 yards in the game and outrushed them 198 to 79. This will be Iowa’s 3rd road game of the season after beating Iowa State in overtime 44-41 and losing at Michigan State 17-10. Their most recent game two weeks ago was an “easy” 45-16 win over Illinois who now rates as the worst team in the Big Ten. The Hawkeyes were actually outgained in that game 446 to 441 and led by just 8 points entering the 4th quarter.

Another concern in that game was the Illini came into the contest with the worst rushing attack in the Big Ten and proceeded to rack up 200 yards on the ground. On the season, Iowa is -32 YPG ranking 10th in the conference in total offense (356 YPG) and 10th in total defense (388 YPG). The Hawks are set up to potentially sweep the board in October if they can win here with a home game vs Minnesota looming next Saturday. That would get them to bowl eligible before hosting Ohio State and traveling to Wisconsin to open up November.

A struggling Northwestern offense finally got on track last Saturday with a 37-21 win at Maryland. In their first two Big Ten Games, vs Wisconsin & Penn State, the Cats tallied only 31 total points on 509 total yards. They topped both of those numbers last week at Maryland scoring 37 points on 531 yards. NW’s running game has been subpar at best this year with All American candidate Justin Jackson putting up only 339 yards on the ground through their first 5 games (67 YPG). Last week Jackson finally broke out and rolled up 171 yards rushing and in the process became the school’s all time leading rusher.

Defensively the Cats shut down a Maryland running game that had been among the best in the Big Ten. Terp RB Ty Johnson came into the game averaging 8 YPC and was held to just 20 yards on 10 carries. The Cats finally looked like a team that thought they could contend in the Big Ten West. After playing their two toughest Big Ten opponents right out of the gate, Wisconsin & Penn State, the Wildcats slate now looks very manageable from here on out. The next two weeks vs Iowa & Michigan State at home are key. If they win those, they could run the table.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS – The favorite in this series had covered 5 straight before the Cats topped Iowa as an 11-point dog last year. Iowa won every game in this series from 1980 – 1994. Since they the Hawks are just 9-11 SU the last 20 meetings with Northwestern. Iowa is an impressive 11-1 ATS the last 12 times they’ve been a conference road favorite. Since 2008, the Cats are just 7-15 ATS as a Big Ten home dog.

Maryland at Wisconsin (-24.5)

The Terps have really been all over the board this season. They have some really nice wins beating Texas & Minnesota both on the road. They also have a few bad losses getting whipped by Northwestern and UCF at home and Ohio State on the road. In those three losses, Maryland was outgained by a whopping 940 or an average of 313 YPG. Last week they struggled to slow down a NW running game that had been below average at best coming into that game. The Cats rolled up 238 yards on the ground in their 37-21 win over Maryland. That’s a bad omen facing a Wisconsin rushing attack that leads the Big Ten averaging 264 YPG. The Terps have struggled on that side of the ball all season long ranking dead last in the conference in total defense allowing 439 YPG. If you narrow that down to their Big Ten games only, Maryland is allowing 475 YPG including giving up over 1,100 combined yards in their last two games alone (vs Ohio State & Northwestern).

Offensively they have relied heavily on their running game to take some pressure of 3rd straight QB and now starter Max Bortenschlager. That running game rolled up huge numbers their first two games of the season (over 600 yards) but has fallen off drastically as of late. Last week NW shut them down to just 85 yards on 31 carries. It was actually the 3rd time in their last 4 games the Maryland rushing attack has been held to 85 yards or less.

Wisconsin had a bit of a scare last weekend beating Purdue 17-9. The Boilers easily covered as a 17-point dog but the game wasn’t as close as the final score says it may have been. The 6-0 Badgers were plagued by three turnovers and a blocked punt. The fact is Wisconsin outgained Purdue 494 to 221 including 295 to 66 on the ground. Those numbers more often than not would result in a blowout. To give you another example of how lopsided this game was despite the tight score, with 10:00 minutes remaining in the game and Wisconsin clinging to an 8-point lead, the Badgers had 417 yards while Purdue had only 167.

RB Jonathan Taylor continued to rack up huge numbers on the ground. He exited this one with 219 yards on 30 carries. He is now just 14 yards short of 1,000 on the season and had he picked up those 14 extra yards vs Purdue, he would have been the first freshman in the history of college football to top 1,000 yards in his first 6 games. On the other side of the ball Wisconsin is again ranked in the top 10 nationally in total defense. They are currently 6th in the country allowing only 265 YPG. They have been in the top 10 nationally in total defense each of the last 4 seasons.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS – These two have met twice since Maryland joined the Big Ten with Wisconsin winning 52-7 at home in 2014 and 31-24 at Maryland in 2015. This will be the fourth time already this year the Terps have been an underdog of 13 or more. They are 2-1 ATS so far in those games with both covers coming as outright wins over Texas & Minnesota. The Badgers have been a Big Ten favorite of 24 or more just 11 times since 1981. They are 8-3 ATS in those games. The Terps have been a 3 TD underdog or more 29 times since 1987. They are 1-28 SU in those games & 11-18 ATS.

Purdue (-9.5) at Rutgers

Purdue was able to take Wisconsin to the wire last week in a 17-9 loss at Camp Randall despite getting outgained by 277 yards. Despite giving up nearly 500 yards to the Badgers, the Boilers were able to keep the scoreboard in check allowing only 17 points as we mentioned. They have consistently done just that this season as the Purdue defense is allowing only 20 PPG. That ranks them 33rd nationally in scoring defense compared to last season when they ranked 117th. Coming into this year, the Boilermaker defense had allowed 31 PPG or more in 5 straight seasons.

They were poor on offense last week but much of that had to do with their opponent. Purdue has faced two top 10 defenses this year (Wisconsin & Michigan) and they’ve totaled just 19 points in those two games. Against everyone else they are averaging 34.5 PPG. Purdue had won only 9 total games over their previous 4 seasons. This year they are already 3-3 and will be most likely favored in each of their next 3 games. Win those 3 and this team will make just it’s 3rd bowl game since 2007.

Rutgers won! The Scarlet Knights entered last week’s road game at Illinois having lost 16 straight Big Ten games. You can throw that out the window after their 35-24 win over the Illini. They did nearly all of their offensive damage on the ground with 274 yards on 47 carries. It was the first time they topped 200 yards rushing in a game since October 15th of last year when they had 203 yards on the ground vs this same Illinois team. Head coach Chris Ash benched starting QB Bolin and went with Giovanni Rescigno. In his first start this season, Rescigno wasn’t called on to do much but hand the ball off as he completed just 5 passes the entire game. Their 35 points was the most in a conference game since 2015.

Coming into the game, Rutgers had averaged just 9 PPG their previous 11 Big Ten games. On defense they’ve been fairly stout. Throwing out their 56-0 loss to Ohio State, the defense has allowed just 19 PPG in their other 5 games. If you throw out their blowout loss to Ohio State and their easy win vs FCS Morgan State, Rutgers has actually been fairly competitive with a point differential of -18 in their other 4 games. That included a 30-14 home loss to Washington, a top 10 team.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS – Purdue has been a Big Ten road favorite just 6 times since the start of the 2007 season. They are 1-5 ATS in those games. The Boilers have been a recent money maker in road games going 14-3 ATS their last 17 – including 3-0 ATS this season. This is the first meeting between these two teams.

Illinois at Minnesota (-14)

The Illini officially gained the title of the Big Ten’s worst last weekend with a home loss to Rutgers. Those two teams were considered by most, including us, as the two worst teams in the conference and when the Scarlet Knights topped Illinois on the road 35-24 the Illini took hold of the unwanted title. The Illinois defense which looked like it would be the strength of their team early in the season have since allowed 47, 28, 45, and 35 points their last 4 games. The overall yardage was close but Rutgers dominated the ground game with nearly 200 more yards rushing. The Illini continue to have problems at QB.

They switched from Chayce Crouch to Jeff George Jr a few weeks ago and while George gives them a better passing attack, he’s also a turnover machine. George threw 2 more interceptions last Saturday and now has 12 in his career in just 7 games. Not only are the Illini demoralized after losing at home to Rutgers, the Knights first Big Ten win in their last 17 conference games, they are also banged up. Their linebacking corps has a number of key contributors questionable or doubtful for this game. On top of that, their top RB Mike Epstein (346 yards rushing) injured his foot and did not play vs Rutgers and is now most likely out for the season.

We felt Minnesota had a great opportunity to get their first Big Ten win last weekend at home vs Michigan State. It was a tough spot for Sparty coming off an emotional win at Michigan in a 2nd half monsoon a week earlier. Despite the Spartans potential letdown, they dominated the game. The final score of 30-27 was a bit deceiving as MSU rolled out to a 23-6 lead and still led 30-13 midway through the 4th quarter. Sparty crushed Minnesota on the ground rushing for 245 yards to just 74 for the Gophers. After starting the season 3-0, Minny has now dropped 3 straight and they sit at 0-3 in conference play. Their 3-0 start is looking a bit fraudulent as they played 3 poor teams (Buffalo, MTSU, and Oregon State). It’s not as if they’ve started conference play vs the top teams in the league thus why they are winless. Two of their three Big Ten losses came at the hands of Maryland & Purdue.

The Gophers do have a QB controversy on their hands. Starter Conor Rhoda struggled last week and was replaced in the middle of the 2nd quarter by Demry Croft. Rhoda and Croft were rotating at the QB position early in the year and then head coach PJ Fleck suspended Croft for an off-field issue. He sat out 3 games and came back last week. Under his direction Minnesota, who hadn’t scored an offensive TD since the 2nd quarter of their game at Purdue, put up 3 TD’s in the 4th quarter to make a late run. Fleck is evaluating the QB’s in practice this week before making a decision as to who starts this game.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS – Last year Minnesota was favored by 8 at Illinois and won 40-17. A look at the stat sheet would tell us the score shouldn’t have been that lopsided as Minny outgained the Illini by just 38 yards. The Gophers have dominated this series over the last 20+ seasons going 12-4 SU (11-5 ATS) since 1996. Their average margin of victory in those 12 wins is 19.5 points. Minnesota is laying 14 in this game which is their third highest pointspread number vs Illinois since 1980. Illinois is 0-3 ATS in Big Ten play this year and they are now 5-13 ATS in their last 18 conference games.

Indiana at Michigan State (-7)

Indiana had a huge home game last week vs Michigan. The vastly improved Hoosiers took the Wolverines to overtime for the second time in the last three seasons and came up short again losing 27-20. Their defense was very solid holding Michigan to under 5.0 YPP. This team was known for offense under former head coach Kevin Wilson, now the OC at Ohio State. Now under new head man Tom Allen, the IU defense has taken center stage. Minus their games vs Penn State & Ohio State, two of the best offenses in the country, this Hoosier defense has been very good holding all other opponents to 20 points or less (in regulation). They are holding opponents to just 4.8 YPP this year and that factors in their games vs OSU & PSU, the two best offenses they will see this season. To put that in perspective, the last time and Indiana defense held their opponents to 5 YPP or less for a full season was back in 1996!

Their loss to Michigan dropped them to 0-3 in league play (3-3 overall) but their 3 losses have come at the hands of PSU, OSU, and Michigan, all ranked opponents. It gets a bit easier from here on out as just 2 of their final 6 Big Ten foes are currently ranked (Michigan State & Wisconsin). Offensively they are still inconsistent and their starting QB is a true freshman, Peyton Ramsey. They are one of only two Big Ten teams currently averaging less than 5 YPP (Rutgers is the other). Their rushing attack is averaging only 3.5 YPC which ranks last in the Big Ten. Their tough schedule to date definitely has something to do with that.

Michigan State was in a bad spot last weekend at Minnesota and played very well. Coming off three huge games (ND, Iowa, and Michigan) including a down to the wire win over their arch rival Wolverines, MSU was due for a bit of a letdown last Saturday. It didn’t happen. While the game ended up being fairly tight with MSU winning 30-27, they were in control from the starting taking a 23-6 lead into the 4th quarter. The Gophers scored 3 TD’s in the final stanza including 2 in the last 5:20 of the game to make the final score close and pick up the back door cover. Sparty completed only 9 passes the entire game but really didn’t need to throw the ball as they finally were able to get their ground game going with 245 yards on 50 carries.

RB LJ Scott led the way with a much needed 194 yards (career high) on the ground. It was the first time this season that the Spartans had a back go over 100 yards. In fact, their QB Brian Lewerke had been their leading rusher in 3 of their first five games this season. The defense held a decent Minnesota ground game to just 74 yards on 2.7 YPC. They continue to play very well on that side of the ball ranking 2nd in the Big Ten in total defense just behind Michigan and 5th nationally. The Spartans had won 7 straight games in this series before last year’s 24-21 overtime loss at Indiana. MSU tied that game at 21 with a TD with just 11 seconds remaining before losing in OT.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS - MSU has dominated this Big Ten series winning 25 of the last 32 meetings. Sparty has covered 10 of the last 13 and 13 of the last 18 meetings. The last 6 games played in East Lansing have all been lopsided with MSU covering all 6. The Spartan margins of victory in those 6 games were 26, 14, 52, 25, 31, and 28 points. The last time IU won at Michigan State was in 2001 and they’ve only won in East Lansing twice since 1980, a span of 16 games.

Michigan at Penn State (-10)

Michigan’s offense continues to sputter as they tallied only 329 total yards vs Indiana last week and that was in a game that went to OT! Take away the 25-yards they had in OT and the Wolverines put up only 304 yards on 63 plays (4.8 yards per play) in their 27-20 win over Indiana. They haven’t topped 360 yards of total offense in a game since facing Cincinnati way back on September 9th. Since John O’Korn took over as the starting QB for an injured Wilton Speights, his two starts have resulted in 26 completed passes in 55 attempts (47%) with 0 TD’s and 3 interceptions. The Wolverines explosive plays are almost non-existent right now. Versus Indiana they had a grand total of 5 plays that went 15 or more yards and only 2 that topped 20 yards. Both of those plays topping 20 yards were runs by RB Karan Higdon. They had just one play of over 20 yards in their previous game vs MSU. Last week Michigan ran 65 total plays in the game and relied heavily on their running game with 45 rush attempts and just 20 pass attempts.

Defensively they were very good again. They held the Hoosier offense to only 3.8 YPP. The Wolverines have allowed only 8 offensive TD’s in their 6 games this year and they continue to lead the nation in total defense giving up only 223 YPG on 3.6 YPP. They are allowing just 89 YPG on the ground in their 3 Big Ten tilts. On top of that they are allowing opposing Big Ten QB’s to complete only 47% of their passes. Now only if their offense was better!

Penn State sits in a good spot here as they are coming off a bye. It’s a revenge game for the Nittany Lions who were destroyed at Michigan last year 49-10. The potent PSU offense was completely stifled in that game with just 191 total yards and 12 first downs. All American RB Saquon Barkley had just 59 yards rushing in that blowout loss. Penn State was outrushed 326 to 70 in that loss. Michigan was a 15.5 point favorite in that game and now they sit at a 10 point dog. A huge 25.5 point swing from just one year ago and the first time Harbaugh has been a double digit underdog since taking over at Michigan. Some say that embarrassing loss turned the Penn State program back in the right direction as they are 15-1 since then, their only setback a 3-point loss coming in the Rose Bowl to USC.

The Nits come into this game with a perfect 6-0 mark but have yet to be tested by a top notch team. All of their wins have come by at least 19 points with the exception of their game at Iowa which was a 21-19 come from behind win. They rank 2nd in the Big Ten in scoring offense (39 PPG) and 3rd in total offense (456 YPG) but the best defense they have faced this year is Indiana who ranks 39th nationally in total defense. We’ll find out if PSU is again for real in the next two weeks as they travel to Ohio State after their match up with the Wolverines.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS - Michigan has only been a double digit underdog FOUR times since 1980 vs teams not named Ohio State. They are just 1-3 ATS in those games. Surprisingly, the Wolverines are just 12-22 ATS the last 34 times they’ve been an underdog dating back to the 2008 season. However, dating back to 2003, Michigan is 13-2 ATS in their 2nd of back to back road games. Money making PSU is an amazing 13-1-1 ATS their last 15 games. The Lions are also 13-6-1 their last 20 as a double digit home favorite.

Big 12 Report - Week 8
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com

Oklahoma State at Texas

The Cowboys hit the road for Austin in a tough noon time kick. The Cowboys have won back-to-back games while scoring a total of 100 points since their setback against TCU back on Sept. 23. The Cowboys offense has posted 31 or more points in each of their games, and 41 or more points in each of their first victories. Texas played well in their rivalry game against Oklahoma, coming up just short in Dallas by a 29-24 count. However, they improved to 4-0-1 ATS over the past five outings. The 'under' hit in that one, and is now 4-1 over the past five for the 'Horns. The under is also 5-0-1 in the past six meetings in Austin. Oklahoma State has covered five in a row at Texas, while the road team is 9-1 ATS in the past 10 in this series. The favorite is also 16-5 ATS in the past 21 meetings. As of early Thursday morning the Cowboys are a touchdown road favorite.

Iowa State at Texas Tech

The Cyclones really turned around their season with a win at Oklahoma, going from pushover to surprisingly tough out overnight. They blasted Kansas 45-0 last weekiend, and they've now covered five of their six games overall. Texas Tech is doing their usual thing, scoring plenty of points and not playing a lot of defense. They have managed 34 or more points in five of their six games while going 5-1 ATS. Their lone non-cover was last weekend in West Virginia, falling 46-35 as 5 1/2-point underdogs. The Red Raiders are a touchdown favorite as of Thursday morning. Total bettors might also like to know the over is 11-5 in the past 16 overall for I-State, 11-5 in their past 16 conference games and 6-1 in their past seven against teams with a winning record. The over is 14-6 in Texas Tech's past 20 at home, 13-4 in their past 17 against teams with a winning record and 5-1 in the past six inside the league.

Oklahoma at Kansas State

The Sooners roll out to Manhattan trying to keep their playoff aspirations alive and well. There is no room for error after their stunning 38-31 loss against Iowa State two weeks ago. After opening the season 3-0 ATS, the Sooners are 0-3 ATS over their past three outings. For K-State, they started out 2-0 SU/ATS, but they have dropped three of the past four while going 0-3-1 ATS. In this series, Oklahoma has covered four in a row on the road against K-State, while the road team is 12-3-1 ATS over the past 16 meetings. The over is also 4-0 in the past four battles in Manhattan, while going 7-2 over the past nine meetings.

Kansas at Texas Christian

The playoff-hopeful Horned Frogs look to keep on course against the lowly Jayhawks, and Vegas feels rather confident they'll do just that. TCU enters as a 39-point favorite. However, as we saw two weeks ago with Iowa State-Oklahoma, no team should be overlooked regardless of the spread. Kansas was blanked last week at Iowa State, but they have had some success on offense earlier in the season. The Jayhawks averaged 32.3 PPG over their first four outings, and the 'over' cashed in their first five outings. The under is 5-2 in the past seven home games for TCU, while going 5-1 in the past six conference tilts. The under is also 10-4 in the past 14 overall for TCU. The Jayhawks have covered five in a row in the series, while the underdog is 6-0 ATS in the past six outings. The undere is 4-1 in the past five in the series.

West Virginia at Baylor

The Mountaineers roll into Waco look to kick the Bears while they're down. West Virginia is an impressive 14-2 ATS over their past 16 road games against a team with a losing home record. Baylor has covered just eight of their past 26 overall, while going 7-16 ATS over the past 23 following a straight-up loss of 20 or more points. It has been a difficult season for Baylor, and it doesn't look to get any easier. West Virginia is just 1-4 ATS over the past five meetings, but that's also been when the Bears have been much, much better. West Virginia enters as just a 9 1/2-point favorite as of Thursday night. While the Bears have lost their three home games by just 6.0 PPG, outside of their impressive game against Oklahoma, those other teams were FCS Liberty and Texas-San Antonio. Not exactly the cream of the college football crop.

Pac-12 Report - Week 8
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com

Arizona State at Utah

The Sun Devils used an amazing defensive effort to thwart Washington and deal their playoff chances a huge blow with a 13-7 win. It was a much-needed victory, getting AZ State back to 3-3. It was the first consecutive cover for the Sun Devils, and their first real sign of defense this season. They had allowed at least 30 points in each of their first five outings. Still, the under is an impressive 5-1 for Arizona State. Under results have been popular for Utah, too, going 4-2 overall. The Utes started out 4-0 SU, but they have dropped two in a row. Overall they're an impressive 5-0-1 ATS. After Arizona State's big win, a spread anywhere from 9 1/2 to 10 1/2 looks quite large. However, they're 4-12 ATS over their past 16 road games and 17-38-2 ATS over the past 57 road games against a team with a winning home mark. Utah has an impressive 5-2-1 ATS mark over their past eight at Rice-Eccles Stadium, and they're 3-0-1 ATS over their past four league games.

Oregon at UCLA

Oregon hits the road for UCLA in a battle of three-loss teams. The Ducks have really struggled on the road, going 2-7-1 ATS over their past 10 away from Autzen Stadium in Eugene, and they're just 5-15-1 ATS over their past 21 games overall. The Bruins haven't been much better, going 3-8 ATS over their past 11 at the Rose Bowl, while going 8-26 ATS in their past 34 tilts in the month of October. UCLA has also failed to cover in five straight league games, and four straight overall. Oregon has covered five of their past six trips to UCLA, while going 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings overall. The under is 3-0-1 in the past four at UCLA. The Bruins haven't beaten the Ducks since 2007, dropping six straight in the series.

Southern California at Notre Dame

In one of the marquee games of the weekend, perhaps THE marquee game, the Trojans and Irish square off in the shadows of Touchdown Jesus. The Trojans haven't had a lot of luck on the road in recent seasons, going 3-9 ATS over the past 12 away from home while going 2-6 ATS in their past eight non-conference tilts. USC is also 0-5 ATS over the past five games overall. On the flip side, Notre Dame has covered four straight non-conference games, but they're just 3-7 ATS in the past 10 against teams with a winning overall record. The favorite has cashed in five straight meetings in this series, while the home team is 4-0 ATS in the past four overall. The over is 10-4-1 in the past 15 non-conference games for USC, while going 6-2 in Notre Dame's past eight non-ACC battles.

Arizona at California

The Wildcats ran roughshod over UCLA last weekend, now they'll look to do the same against Cal. The Bears posted one of the most stunning victories of last weekend, topping previously unbeaten Washington State by a 37-3 count. The Wildcats have cashed in five of the past seven outings, but they're just 2-5 ATS in the past seven against winning teams and 3-8 ATS in the past 11 inside the conference. The Wildcats are also 2-7 ATS over the past nine road games. For Cal, they have covered four of their past five at home. However, despite their big win last week, they're still just 6-13 ATS over their past 19 league games. They're also 3-7 ATS in the past 10 against teams with a winning overall mark. While those facts make Arizona look impressive against the number, they are 0-4 ATS in the past four meetings with Cal and 0-5 ATS in their past five trips to Berkeley.

Colorado at Washington State

The Cougars look to pick themselves up and dust themselves off after a stunning loss last week at Cal. It wasn't even so much that Washington State lost, but it's how they lost - a 37-3 whitewashing. Colorado has covered seven of their past nine games on the road, and they're 6-1 ATS in the past seven road outings against teams with a winning home mark. However, they have covered just once in the past six league games and they're 1-6 ATS in the past seven against a team with a winning record. Washington State hasn't been much better against winning clubs, going 2-5 ATS in the past seven against winning sides. However, they are 15-7 ATS in the past 22 inside the conference and 4-1 ATS across the past five overall. The underdog has cashed in five of the past seven meetings, and the road team is 5-2 ATS in the seven in this series.

Bye Teams

Oregon State, Stanford, Washington

Saturday's Surprising Bets
By BetOnline.ag

Almost nobody likes to go out of their comfort zone when it comes to betting on college football. They prefer their former school, or at least the conferences that you can see on television. That’s fine and all, but you’re leaving money on the table if you’re not careful. Check out some of the most shocking bets and their weekend slate as you prepare your Week 8 NCAAF betting ticket.

NO. 16 NOTRE DAME (5-1 SU and ATS)

Next Game: USC at Notre Dame -3.5

At this time last season, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish were untouchable. They ended their 2016 campaign with an abysmal betting record of 4-8 SU and ATS. Obviously, their fortunes have turned around immensely.

So how are they doing this?

Well, a lot of it has to do with schedule. As a glorious little independent school, Notre Dame always faces some whacked out slate and this year is no different. The Irish have faced Temple, Boston College, Miami of Ohio and UNC in blowout wins. Astonishingly, they also crushed the Michigan State Spartans 38-18 on the road.

The one-loss Irish have only coughed up a single game, and it was against the currently undefeated Georgia Bulldogs. That game happened all the way back in Week 2 when nobody knew that Georgia was this good and everyone anticipated Notre Dame to make a comeback. The Irish were -5.5 point favorites and lost 20-19 in an excellent game.

Truthfully, there’s no rhyme or reason for why Notre Dame is posting such a great ATS record and there’s no point in caring. Josh Adams is a fantastic running back talent and quarterback Brandon Wimbush is a very annoying, 6-foot-1 quarterback that likes to run for touchdowns. The Irish rank 5th in the country with 308 yards on the ground and are averaging 40.0 points against, while their fledgling schedule has granted them a 16.8 points against average. All good things.

The Irish face their biggest test of the year in the fun, annual rival game against USC this weekend. They’re soft favorites at -3.5, but the deliciously un-bettable Trojans are 1-5 ATS this season and Aaron Darnold is doing nothing to prove why he’s the top quarterback prospect in the country. Right now, there’s no reason to back off Notre Dame. Don’t overanalyze. Don’t overthink it. Just bet them, especially this weekend when the Trojans find another way to lose on the big stage.

NO. 20 UCF KNIGHTS (5-0 SU and ATS)

Next Game: UCF -7.5 at Navy

Offence, offence and more offense. That’s the ticket to the Knights, who have used turned in to a big play machine, which is sort of what they do. The trend with UCF is to just book them when they’re a hot ticket item. They’ve done this in the past so consistently that you can’t ignore it anymore.

UCF went 9-5 ATS in 2013, 8-4 ATS in 2014 and 2016 and threw the scent off the trail in 2015 with an abysmal, winless season that saw them go 2-10 ATS. The point is that outside of that one blip of a season two years ago, the Knights have been bankable. The Knights have their hands full with the wily Navy Midshipmen this weekend as -7.5 favorites but overall it’s not a huge concern. UCF is far too explosive offensively for Navy to keep up with, and the rush defence for the Knights is 18th best in the nation.

BUFFALO BULLS (3-4 SU and 7-0 ATS)

Next Game: Buffalo vs. Miami (Ohio) -3.0

This is pretty obvious. The Bulls are an automatic bet at the roulette wheel until the table turns up a red. Every now and then, there’s a team in a far off distance conference that nobody cares about that’s just going bananas against the spread. This year, it’s Buffalo in the MAC where they have to contend with a lot of pretty bad teams.

At its core, an ATS record is simply how well a team performs against long term expectations. The market on Buffalo and the MAC in general is so small that it doesn’t help or hurt a sportsbook to dole out lines. People don’t bet on Buffalo and teams in the lesser conferences because they’re unknowns and it’s terribly boring. Plus, you can never find them on television.

But why look a gift horse in the mouth? Buffalo is averaging a steady +3.1 point differential this season with a consistent passing game complimented by a well balanced defence. In short, Buffalo is simply well built. Take them as dogs on the road against Miami of Ohio and keeping spinning that wheel.

FRESNO STATE (4-2 SU and 5-0-1 ATS)

Next Game: Fresno State at San Diego State -7.5

People who have tracked Fresno State for this very reason have been well rewarded. They went 7-4 ATS over 12 games in 2016 and also buoyed a stretch of games in 2014 where they ripped off a 7-3 ATS record after beginning the year on their heels at 0-3 SU and ATS. The point is that we’ve seen these Bulldogs show some bite before. At +13.0 in point differential on the season, they’re either a great team to bet against fledgling competition or as spread busting heroes against monster lines.

GEORGIA TECH (3-2 SU and 5-0 ATS)

Next Game: Wake Forest at Georgia Tech -6.5

Nobody seems to be buying in on what Georgia Tech is doing, and that’s fine. But at 5-0 ATS on the year with both losses coming by one-point, why wouldn’t you take a look? The Jackets are led by quarterback TaQuon Marshall who has run his way in to the hearts of his classmates by leading a ground game that averages 362 yards per game. On top of that, the recruiting efforts on the defensive side have yielded positive gains with the team surrendering just 304.2 yards per game and 20.2 points against.

I’m not saying you should mortgage your future on the Jackets, but there’s value here that nobody else is really noticing. What they’re doing is riding a wave that they crated last year when they ended the season going 4-0 SU and ATS. Eventually, the bow will break and the flood is coming against Clemson next week. For now, however, Georgia Tech remains a bet-on proposition.

The Dozen: Saturday Showdowns
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com

Here are the games that should most command your attention on the third Saturday in October and everything you need to know to handicap these matchups:

1. Michigan at Penn State: Even though the Wolverines disappointed in failing to generate offense at Michigan State, it managed to get by at Indiana and is playing for all its season aspirations as it takes the field at Beaver Stadium. With games at Wisconsin and home against Ohio State scheduled for the final two weeks of the regular season, Jim Harbaugh's team still controls their destiny provided they can pull off an upset to keep him perfect against James Franklin.

Harbaugh has won head-to-head battles in each of the last two seasons, winning last year's game 49-10. That makes this one even bigger for Penn State, which comes off a bye and will have a white-out in the stands to try and avenge its last home loss. The Nittany Lions are 11-0 since losing to Michigan late in 2015 and will play at Ohio State next, putting them in the spotlight these next two weeks. Calling this the biggest game in Franklin's tenure is no understatement since he says there could be as many as 300 recruits in the house. Michigan will have DE Rashan Gary out there despite an arm injury to key a defensive line that appears to be his team's biggest strength and best shot at containing Heisman frontrunner Saquon Barkley, who is currently the only player in the nation averaging over 100 rushing yards and 50 receiving yards.

The Wolverines won't have QB Wilton Speight available and aren't thrilled with the prospect of throwing redshirt freshman Brandon Peters out there in a hostile environment, so John O'Korn will open under center. The Houston transfer threw three picks in the loss at Sparty and passed for just 58 yards in Bloomington, so he's got to pick it up if Michigan is to pull off an upset.

2. USC at Notre Dame: The Fighting Irish squandered opportunities to defeat currently unbeaten Georgia at home, but otherwise thrived through the first half of its schedule, winning and covering in five of six. The second six-pack on Notre Dame's regular-season slate has now arrived after a bye, so we'll see whether Brian Kelly's team has improved enough over the first few months to handle the challenge of closing strong against Southern Cal, NC State, Wake Forest, Miami, Navy and Stanford, who each enter the week over .500, coming in 31-7 combined.

Brian Kelly has beaten USC in South Bend two straight times after losing in their first visit. The Irish's 45-27 setback in L.A. last season dropped him to 4-3 against the Trojans, but he hasn't lost in consecutive years. A new-look staff will have had ample time to prepare and get QB Brandon Wimbush's injured right foot back to 100 percent. Kelly said he had his best practice ever this week, so there will be no excuses. Outside of LB Greer Martini missing this game due to an MCL injury sustained in practice last week, Notre Dame is in great shape.

The same can't be said of USC, which is back on the road for the first time since a Friday night loss at Washington State. It survived a home game against Utah last week but come in banged up with DE Porter Gustin and DT Josh Fatu sidelined. Rasheem Green is likely to play, but the Trojans' defensive line depth will be tested since there are others potentially too hurt to fill out the rotation. QB Sam Darnold comes off an impressive second half against the Utes, rallying his team from a 21-7 deficit after losing a pair of first-quarter fumbles. He'll be facing the toughest defense he'll see the rest of the way here, so NFL teams will examine a lot of this tape over the next few months. His offensive line is nicked up too, but got good news with tackles Toa Lobendahn and Chuma Edoga both cleared to play.

3. Oklahoma State at Texas: The Longhorns played Oklahoma tough and have to be encouraged despite coming into this home game as an underdog expected to fall to 3-4 unless they pull off a surprise. The Cowboys, despite losing to TCU, could still win out, claim the inaugural Big 12 title game and sneak into the national playoff.

Tom Herman's team will visit TCU to open November, but this is the biggest game remaining in Texas' season, particularly since it is at home. Electric RB Kyle Porter is likely out due to a chest injury, leaving Chris Warren and freshman Toneil Carter to handle the ground game. The Longhorns are 18-1 in the game following the Red River clash against OU, losing only to a ranked OK State team back in '11. Charlie Strong beat the Cowboys in his first season, but dropped games the last two seasons.

Mason Rudolph beat Baylor for the first time in his career, doing so in style with a 59-16 rout. This test should require the offense to put up points since the Cowboys defense may be without athletic linebacker Kenneth Edison-McGruder while facing a running QB, freshman Sam Ehlinger, for the first time since their season-opening win over Tulsa.

4. Oklahoma at Kansas State: The Sooners are in the same boat as their in-state rival despite their shocking loss to Iowa State earlier this month, but have a tougher schedule with no room for error. Oklahoma has held up nicely outside of Norman under 34-year-old first-year head coach Lincoln Riley, starting off 3-0 with winds in Waco, Columbus and Dallas. He'll match wits with 78-year-old Bill Snyder, who last beat OU in 2014 but was handed a 55-0 defeat the last time Oklahoma came into Manhattan and hasn't posted a home win in this series since 1996.

K-State is 3-3 for the third straight season and badly needs senior QB Jesse Ertz back in the lineup to help control the clock and provide leadership, but it's unclear whether he'll be able to return from a knee injury that has sidelined him of late. Sophomore Alex Delton is faster and talented, but isn't as polished and will need his ground game to really respond to even hang around after producing just six points in last week's home loss to TCU.

Baker Mayfield leads the nation's third-ranked offense, which has averaged 575.5 yards and is averaging 42 points per game. They've scored less than 31 points in consecutive games for the first time since '14, but have opened a 73-31 edge in first quarters and will look to take a Homecoming crowd out of it early to keep the atmosphere from becoming a factor. Standout receiver Jeff Badet left the win over Texas and is said to be in concussion protocol.

5. Louisville at Florida State: It's an upset that this game is this far down this list. It was supposed to be another showdown between Lamar Jackson and DeAndre Francois with ACC Atlantic supremacy at stake, but Clemson spoiled that notion early and only the reigning Heisman Trophy winner will suit up in this one. True freshman James Blackman is still looking for his first conference home win but has persevered enough to lead the 'Noles to road wins at Wake Forest and Duke. Florida State hasn't covered a game all season, which makes the idea of laying a full seven points against the Cards dangerous.

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Jackson leads the country in total offense, averaging 430 yards per game, but has been unable to taste victory this month, suffering upset losses at NC State and last week at home against Boston College. On paper, this will be their toughest remaining game, but with most of the season's goals having slipped away, it remains to be seen whether Bobby Petrino can keep his team engaged. WR Seth Dawkins had developed into a key playmaker but missed the BC game and is questionable here. Jaylen Smith returned last week and will help test the FSU secondary. After losing RBs Jeremy Smith, Colin Wilson and Malik Williams for the season, Reggie Bonnafon moved into the backfield and will have talented redshirt freshman Dae Williams available.

Blackman has made strong use of top target Auden Tate, but will again be without key receiving options Keith Gavin and George Campbell. Guard Landon Dickerson was lost for the season in Durham, so Florida State will have a new left tackle in redshirt freshman Josh Ball. The Seminoles were humbled 63-20 last season and have minced no words about the thought of gaining a little revenge being a driving force this week.

6. UCF at Navy: Even after losing at Memphis last week, the Midshipmen remain among the class of the American, which features four teams that have picked up three league wins already en route to the national rankings.

The Midshipmen will need help to finish ahead of the Tigers, but can still defend their West Division title if they handle business and will be facing their toughest remaining AAC opponent. Although they've still got a non-conference test at Notre Dame and their annual date with Army left to play, Navy will be way up for this one, looking to avoid consecutive losses. QB Zach Abey has rushed for 108 or more yards each time out and ranks second in the country behind Stanford's Bryce Love in yards per game, but has had ball control issues of late and was dinged up at Memphis some.

The Knights have larger aspirations than just the American considering they will likely be favored each time out entering a rivalry game against fellow unbeaten South Florida that they get to host in Orlando. If it runs the table and wins the conference title game, UCF, which has covered each time out, will at the very least find itself in its second-ever New Year's Day bowl. QB McKenzie Milton ranks second in the country in passing efficiency, fourth in completion percentage and 11th in total offense, working best with explosive big target Tre'Quan Smith. An array of backs, led by speedy Adrian Killins, have lit up opposing defense. The Knights' run defense will be the highest-ranked Navy has run into. This will be the first meeting between these programs.

7. Syracuse at Miami (FL): After shocking Clemson at home last Friday night, the Orange will attempt to play spoiler against the lone remaining unbeaten in the ACC. The Hurricanes have pulled off consecutive dramatic wins in rallying past Florida State and Georgia Tech and now have their toughest remaining games at home, making the possibility of an appearance in the national semifinals very real in head coach Mark Richt's second season.

Last week's win was their first without RB Mark Walton, who was lost for the season with an ankle injury against FSU. Sophomore Travis Homer took over and ran for 170 yards to fuel the win against the Yellow Jackets. Miami will be far less shorthanded than it was last week, though CB Dee Delaney has been ruled out. Freshman guard Navaughn Donaldson will return to his starting spot on the line, while free safety Sheldrick Redwine and LB Michael Pinckney will be back in the mix on defense.

Syracuse hasn't beaten the 'Canes since '97 when they were back in the Big East, carrying a five-game losing streak into the first ACC meeting between the schools. The Orange had never beaten Clemson in conference play either, so Dino Babers is selling making history to his group, which is currently above .500 and looking to reach a bowl for the first time since 2013. Eric Dungey takes a lot of hits at quarterback with his style of play, but has put up eye-popping numbers and threw for three scores without being picked off by the defending champs. He's got perhaps the nation's top receiving combo in seniors Steve Ishmael and Ervin Phillips to go to, and may have to put up numbers given the injuries to multiple key defenders.

8. LSU at Ole Miss: Another game that was expected to have more importance when the schedule was released finds the Rebels at home looking to avoid a second consecutive 3-4 start, something they had avoided every year under Hugh Freeze, reaching a bowl each time until last season's disaster. Interim head coach Matt Luke doesn't look like a great bet to keep the gig at this point, but will have plenty of opportunities to change that opinion and win critics over with a strong finish to in manageable schedule.

LSU's Ed Orgeron, who used to be the head coach at Ole Miss from '05-'08, employing Luke on the staff for a year, comes off an upset of Auburn that helped temporarily diffuse some of the grumbling among the LSU fan base. With Alabama on tap after next week's bye, a road win in Oxford would go a long way given the collective youth in this program. The Tigers turned around a 20-0 deficit at home last week, thrilling fans with their gritty comeback.

Ole Miss celebrated its Homecoming with a 57-35 win over Vandy last Saturday and will be back home for Arkansas. The Rebs only leave the state for a Nov. 4 date at Kentucky the rest of the way and are led by the SEC's most prolific passer in Shea Patterson, who ranks third in the nation with an average of 357 yards through the air per game. LSU won last year's game at home but haven't won at Mississippi since 2011, dropping its last two visits. It will be without standout left tackle KJ Malone, Karl Marlone's kid.

9. Oregon at UCLA: One of these three-loss teams are going to be closer to at least salvaging a bowl bid in what's turned into a down season. Since both schools still have games against USC and Utah remaining, the loser is in serious danger of a second straight sub-.500 season. Expect both coaches to go all out to try and secure an important win, which at the very least should make this exciting.

Josh Rosen has had a disappointing season and comes off his worst career game, throwing for a season-low 219 yards, three picks and no touchdowns against Arizona. The Bruins still own the nation's second-most prolific pass offense (399.8 yards) and will look to get back on track against a Ducks defense that has allowed 35.6 points per game in Pac-12 play, surrendering 12 TD passes while intercepting only one.

Oregon's offense hasn't been able to pick up its slipping defensive unit since Justin Herbert broke his collarbone, which bumped true freshman Braxton Burmeister into the fray. The highly-touted recruit may be in over his head, and it isn't going to help matters that he'll be working without two starting offensive linemen since LT Tyrell Cosby and RG Jake Pisarcik are sidelined with concussions.

10. Wyoming at Boise State: Although statement games against Iowa and Oregon did nothing but signal that the Cowboys aren't ready for the big-time, they've rolled off three straight wins and enter their most challenging four-game stretch of the season hoping that a healthier, more experienced group can get through Boise, New Mexico, Colorado State and Air Force successfully enough to still have a shot at a Mountain West title. With QB Josh Allen likely to leave for the NFL after the season, Craig Bohl has to capitalize on having him on board in order to get Wyoming to bowl games in consecutive seasons for the first time since 1987 and '88.

Allen opened the season working without multiple offensive linemen, his top three receivers from a year ago in addition to top RB Brian Hill, who is currently on the Falcons' practice squad. He injured his non-throwing shoulder and really struggled, but threw a late game-winning TD pass last time out against the Aggies and will be looking to beat the Broncos for the second consecutive year after Wyoming suffered 10 straight losses since the series began.

Like Wyoming, Boise State has also won its first two league games, coming off an impressive upset against San Diego State in its best performance of the season. The Broncos defense went on the road and held BYU and SDSU to 21 combined points and have responded well to getting to rest on the sidelines some since the offense has rushed for 344 yards in the wins over the Cougars and Aztecs. Boise has been fantastic against the run, holding the Rashaad Penny-led San Diego State running game to just 83 yards and ranking 10th in the country in allowing 2.9 yards per carry. The Broncos will look to make Wyoming one-dimensional and hope RB Alexander Mattison continues his tear, making life easier on capable QBs Brett Rypien and Montell Cozart.

11. Colorado at Washington State: Pac-12 after dark will entertain us with this offering, which might be played in howling winds and wild rain. The Cougs are attempting to bounce back from last week's 37-3 nightmare of a loss to Cal in Berkeley. Mike Price called out his team for rolling over and believing all the noise about how good they were, which set the tone for a strange week of preparation to try and stay with Washington and Stanford atop the Pac-12 North.

Top WR Tavares Martin got himself suspended for complaining about his use of late, falling on the sword himself to send the message that no individual is bigger than the team. Make no mistake, Washington State will miss his presence, especially with QB Luke Falk struggling. He was indecisive and threw some brutal balls, so count on the Jamal Morrow-led ground game to factor in heavily.

This game is definitely up the Buffs' alley since it promises to be physical and requires a strong outing from one of the Pac-12's top backs, senior Phillip Lindsay. Colorado left Oregon State behind as the league's only winless team with a 36-33 triumph in Corvallis. WR Bryce Bobo helped Steven Montez make an impact through the air, but a defense that was expected to be this team's strength continued to struggle after giving a season-high 45 points the prior week at home in blowing a chance to defeat Arizona. The Buffs beat Wazzu 38-24 in Boulder last season en route to a 10-win season and a berth in the Pac-12 title game. While repeating those goals are out the window, Colorado could inch closer to back-to-back bowls for the first time in over a decade.

12. Iowa State at Texas Tech: The Cyclones are hoping to hang around with the Big 12's big boys another week after following up their monumental upset of Oklahoma by handling Kansas. With TCU coming to Ames next week, Iowa State can generate the type of national buzz it rarely commands. All they have to do is go on the road to Lubbock and take down a team that craves revenge after catching an unexpected 66-10 beating at ISU last season. That loss ultimately cost Patrick Mahomes-led Texas Tech a bowl appearance. Winning here would match last season's win total, so both teams should be up for this one.

Mahomes' replacement, Nic Shimonek has completed just over 70 percent of his passes and has an 18-4 TD-INT ratio working for the Red Raiders. His 355.7 passing yards per game rank second behind OU's Mayfield and are fifth-highest in the country. Iowa State counters with Cinderella story Kyle Kempt, who has come off the bench to throw for 465 yards and four TDs without being picked by Oklahoma or Kansas. Kempt, an Oregon State transfer who never saw the field there and has bounced around looking for a shot, is making the most of his chance to play and has a chance to keep the Cyclones in the spotlight if he pulls off another win here.

Others: Auburn at Arkansas, Iowa at Northwestern, Arizona State at Utah, Tennessee at Alabama, Indiana at Michigan State, Wake Forest at Georgia Tech, Boston College at Virginia, Fresno State at San Diego State, Colorado State at New Mexico, Maryland at Wisconsin, Arizona at California, South Florida at Tulane.