Free Picks for Friday, October 20th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
Marc Lawrence
Colorado St vs. New Mexico
Play: New Mexico +7½
Edges - Lobos: Head coach Bob Davie 5-3 ATS in his career in games following a shutout loss… Rams: Air Force, Wyoming, and Boise State revenge games on deck. With the Lobos off an embarrassing 38-0 loss to Fresno State, and 11-4 SU at home in their last 15 home games, we recommend a 1* play on New Mexico.
Indian Cowboy
Western Kentucky / Old Dominion Over 49
Old Dominion is absolutely going to be rocking for this game. Though it sounds silly to get up for Western Kentucky, ODU will do just that. This is an ODU team that needs some quality wins to keep building its program and finds itself nearly as a double-digit home underdog. This team will not be intimidated coming into this game as remember this team played Virginia Tech earlier this year at Tech and lost 0-38 (not bad). They lost 24-59 to this very same Western Kentucky team last year and they have gotten better since then and in particular their offense. However, their offense only put up 3 points against Marshall last week and was grossly inefficient and we expect them to bounce-back with a quality effort this week. Remember, when this team put up just a few points against UMass, in their next game they put up 23 against UNC. Or, when they put up 0 against Va Tech, their next game they put up 28 points against FAU. Hence, look for a decent performance offensively for ODU and in the same token, look for a decent performance from Western Kentucky as they are a top 40 offense. The 'Over' is 4-0 for the Hilltoppers following an ATS win and the 'Over' is 5-0 for the Monarchs of Old Dominion after scoring 20 or less points their previous game.
Jimmy Boyd
Marshall vs. Middle Tenn St
Play: Over 49.5
Free pick on Marshall/Middle Tennessee OVER I think we are getting some good value here with this low total that's been set for Friday's C-USA matchup between Marshall and Middle Tennessee. The Blue Raiders aren't the same offensive team without junior QB Brent Stockstill, who hasn't played in the last 5 and is listed as doubtful. His absence will have the public looking to take the UNDER with Marshall not considered a high-scoring team, but the books have already adjusted the number here. They just don't take that into account. Sophomore John Urzua has flashed some decent potential, throwing for 359 yards against FAU. He's not afraid to take chances and that's not a bad thing. It increases the likelihood of some big plays and quick scores for Marshall, as well as some turnovers for Marshall that should lead to good field position and quick scores. We just have to hope the turnovers don't come deep in Marshall territory. I mentioned the Thundering Herd isn't a great offense, but they have shown some positive signs here of late, scoring 38 at Cincinnati and 35 against Old Dominion last time out. Memphis isn't a great defensive team by any means and I look for Marshall to be able to move the ball. All we need is a combined 25 points each half and we are clear of the mark by 1.5-points. I think they get that and a lot more.
Ray Monohan
Colorado State vs. New Mexico
Play: New Mexico +7.5
The Lobos look to rebound from an embarrassing loss last time out. This is the perfect chance to really get the fan base back on their side after a shutout loss to Fresno State. New Mexico has gone 11-4 SU at home in their last 15 games and overall are 2-1 on the season there, averaging 40.7 points per contest. They've also rebounded very nicely as of late from a loss. The Lobos are a perfect 4-0 ATS when failing to win in their previous game. This team typically can make solid adjustments during the week after a loss, which really enables them to recover the following week. Some trends to note. Lobos are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.Lobos are 5-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. This is a nice bounce back spot for the Lobos.
Scott Rickenbach
Western Kentucky vs. Old Dominion
Play: Over 48½
The last 3 meetings between these teams have averaged a total of 95 points per game! The weather will be perfect in Norfolk, VA this evening. A pleasant fall evening with light winds and comfortable temperatures. Western Kentucky's plan last week was to get the ball downfield more and it certainly worked with QB Mike White throwing for 5 touchdowns and 398 passing yards. Overall, the Hilltoppers set a season high with 627 yards of offense. That doesn't bode well for an Old Dominion defense that has allowed 530.5 yards per game in their last two home games. The Monarchs are allowing an average of 46 points per game their last 4 games. The Old Dominion offense has certainly struggled at times this season but they have been much better at home where they're averaging 27.3 points per game. The over is 8-2 when the Monarchs enter a game off of two or more consecutive SU losses. The over is 12-3 when Western Kentucky enters a game off of two or more consecutive SU wins.
Cappers Club
Warriors vs. Pelicans
Play: Warriors -8½
The Golden State Warriors and the New Orleans Pelicans face off on Friday night, and the value lies with the Warriors in this one.
Although the Golden State Warriors lost in game one, on the offensive end they still played really well.
They still were able to 53.8 percent from the field, and 16-of-30 from 3-point range.
For the Pelicans their strength is inside, which really isn't the best recipe to beat the Warriors. To beat the Warriors you need to be able to match their small line up, like the Rockets were able to do in game one.
I think the Warriors will be able to outrun the Pelicans and that will lead to an easy victory.
Some trends to note. Warriors are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games. Pelicans are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Wesley Scott
Colorado State vs. New Mexico
Play: Colorado State -7
The Colorado State Rams (5-2 Overall, 3-0 MW) travel southwest to face the New Mexico Lobos (3-3 Overall, 1-2 MW).
The Rams are looking like the team to beat in the Mountain West Conference this season. Colorado State is undefeated in conference and looking for the Mountain West title.
Colorado State has won three in a row (all conference games) and most recently beat Nevada, 44-42 at home.
Rams quarterback Nick Stevens looked like Drew Brees in the win. He was 27 of 38 passing for 384 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions. The CSU offense had 608 total yards in the win.
New Mexico is looking like the team to play if you want a win in the Mountain West this year. The Lobos lost last Saturday, 38-0 at Fresno State. Dropping them to 1-2 in conference play.
New Mexico struggled bad offensively. The Lobos had 322 yards of total offense, but scored zero points. They even had the ball for almost 34 minutes and still struggled to score
Expect the Rams to get the win and cover on the road against the Lobos. Last year New Mexico lost at CSU, 49-31. The same will happen this year.
Big Al
Vancouver vs. Buffalo
Pick: Buffalo -139
No team shook things up more in the off-season than the Sabres, who replaced general manager Tim Murray with two-time Stanley Cup winner Jason Botterill and supplanted head coach Dan Bylsma with former Nashville assistant (former Sabre) Phil Housley. But that was just the beginning. After the Sabres finished with the third-fewest goals in the East while allowing the fifth most, Botterill went to work on fortifying his roster, swinging a major trade that sent Fs Tyler Ennis and Marcus Foligno to the Wild in exchange for top D Marco Scandella and checking-line F Jason Pominville. Botterill also signed Fs Benoit Pouliot and Jacob Josefson to one-year deals, acquired D Nathan Beaulieu from Montreal and made a shrewd under-the-radar signing of KHL star D Viktor Antipin, a gifted 24-year-old Russian who was courted by several NHL teams. They come into this game off of a tough OT loss to the Knights but now they get a match-up against a really bad NHL club. The home team is 16-5-1 in the last 22 meetings.
DAVE COKIN
HAWKS AT HORNETS
PLAY: HORNETS -6
Props to the Atlanta Hawks for a nice opening night win on the road at Dallas. I don’t think it means much and I still project the Hawks to be one of the worst teams in the league this season.
As for Charlotte, let’s call in an opening night dud. They just never really got going at Detroit and walked off the court a decisive loser to the Pistons.
But I still see the Hornets as being one of the better teams in the Eastern Conference. In fact, with Boston suffering a terrible injury to start the season, I can definitely envision this Charlotte entry earning a home court edge come opening round of the Eastern Conference playoffs next spring.
As for tonight, I’ve got to think the Hornets will get more out of its second unit than they did at Detroit. The guys off the bench were pretty awful in the opener, but I’ll expect better things from that unit tonight.
The one potential fly in the ointment is Dwight Howard, who can still play but who also can fry a team mentally. Sorry, but I haven’t been a fan of his for several years and the recent profile in Sports Illustrated did nothing to change that view.
Nevertheless, I still like this Charlotte squad to some extent and I’m just not seeing the Hawks as much more than bottom feeder material. The number is pretty reasonable, so my initial look here is Hornets minus the points.
Jim Feist
Penguins at Panthers
Pick: Penguins
Florida enters tonight's contest at 2-3 and 0-3 on the road this season. They have allowed 20 goals in their five games (4.0 gaa). Pittsburgh enters play tonight at 4-2-1 in their seven games, scoring 25 goals and allowing 29. The Penguins are 7th in the league in scoring (3.6 gpg) and 30th in goals against (4.1). The Penguins have an amazing record against the NHL East Conference, posting a 75-35 mark their last 110. The Penguins are also 50-21 their last 71 games against a team with a losing record. The Panthers are just 4-10 against winning teams the last 14 games, 3-10 against the East Conference the last 13 games. In addition, the Panthers are just 7-21 the last 28 meetings with the Penguins.
Andre Gomes
Detroit @ Washington
Pick: Detroit +6
Detroit is coming from a comfortable home win against Charlotte. The Pistons dominated the boards battle against a good rebounding team and showcased a great ball movement, with 24 assists on 41 made buckets with only 8 turnovers. Tobias had a huge first half, Reggie seemed to have learnt how to share the ball and Drummond dominated the boards against Howard.
I believe the key factor for tonight's game will be the rebounding and turnovers. If Detroit plays like they did against Charlotte, then they'll have an important edge on both rebounding (Markieff is still out and so, Washington will have to use smaller lineups) and transition defense, as if they don't turn over the ball, then the Wizards won't have chances for early offense scores. Unlike Philadelphia which uses undersized guards (Bayless and Reddick), Detroit has lots of size on the wings, which will make Beal, Wall and Porter struggle. If we add a clear bench edge for the Pistons, I believe Detroit will be very competitive tonight and so, I'll take them plus the points in here.
Brandon Lee
Yankees vs. Astros
Play: Astros -135
I think the price is right here with Houston at home in a must-win situation with their ace Justin Verlander on the mound. Verlander has been sensational of late with a 2.14 ERA and 0.952 WHIP in his last 3 starts and absolutely owned the Yankees' hitters in Game 2, allowing just 1 run on 5 hits with 13 strikeouts in a complete game. New York counters with Luis Severino, who has been up and down in the postseason and lasted just 4 innings opposing Verlander in that Game 2 win for Houston. This one is headed for an epic Game 7 on Saturday.
John Martin
Western Kentucky vs. Old Dominion
Play: Western Kentucky -7½
I think the slow start by Western Kentucky this season has them under the radar a bit. This is a team that blew out opponents by 20-plus points per game on the regular last season. They failed to cover the spread in their first five games this season, but then got right last week in a 45-14 win over Charlotte as 17.5-point favorites. They racked up 627 total yards in the win. Now they play one of the worst teams in college football in Old Dominion, whose two wins this season have come against Albany and UMass. Their other four games have resulted in blowout losses by 30, 38, 30 and 32 points. WKU has won and covered all three meetings with ODU over the last three seasons by 35, 25 and 15 points. Chalk up another blowout loss for the Monarchs tonight.
Antony Dinero
Colorado St at New Mexico
Play: Over 57.5
The Rams are going to have to make sure they keep the Lobos down to keep the crowd in Albuquerque from becoming a factor, but they seem to have significant edges with their receivers against a vulnerable, banged-up defensive backfield. Look for Colorado State to pull away, winning and covering in a game that soars above the posted total and into the 60s.