Free Picks for Saturday, October 21st, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
Harry Bondi
TULANE (+12.5) over South Florida
The Green Wave comes in off a disappointing loss to Florida International last week, but that only gives us some value here. South Florida has been thriving off turnovers as they are +13 for the season in that category. Tulane, however, has taken great care of the ball with just four turnovers all season and if they hang on to the ball on Saturday they will be able to hang tough with the undefeated Bulls, who may just be going through the motions as they await an showdown with Central Florida in the season finale. Green Wave gets in under the number.
Bryan Leonard
Arizona at California
Play: California +3
The Wildcats are off back to back straight up upset wins over UCLA and Colorado. But this club is just 2-7 SU on the road as of yet, with one of those victories coming at UTEP. Simply can’t trust this club to win by a margin on the road against a decent team. Arizona is +8 explosive plays this season, while Cal sits at +11. The difference is that the Bears have played a 34 spot tougher schedule. Cal has only permitted 16 explosive plays in six FBS games this year. Only one team has managed more than 17 points at the half. The Bears are on the rise and the markets are slow to adjust. With an extra day to prepare off a positive upset of Washington State, we back the host on Saturday.
Ben Burns
Colorado vs. Washington St
Play: Colorado +10½
Some of you will recall that I successfully played against the Cougars, at Cal, last week, the start of a 14-4 Fri/Sat/Sun streak. Washington State was "riding high," entering that game. The 6-0 Cougs had a top-ten ranking and were coming off victories over USC and Oregon. They'd close as -16.5 point favorites.
Then, Friday The 13th got them. Something did, anyway. The Cougs didn't show up and the Bears came away with a convincing 37-3 victory. Thats right. They beat the closing line by 50 points.
Off that rude awakening, I'm not sure that the Cougs are ready to be laying double-digits here. Colorado, which beat WSU by 14 points last season, is 9-4 ATS its last 13 true road games. Both this season's road games have been close, each decided by four or fewer points. Take a look at the visitors here.
Doc's Sports
East Carolina +5½
There is just no way BYU should be favored against any FBS team on the road. These are two bad teams and thus getting over 5 points is too good to pass up. BYU is 1-6 on the season and they have not been competitive in any of those losses. A few of those games the score made it look more competitive than it actually was. The Pirates have played a difficult schedule with four of their six losses coming against ranked teams. BYU is 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games overall. BYU has major issues on offense and I just do not see them winning this game straight-up.
Doc's Sports
St. Louis at Vegas
Play: Under 5.5
The Vegas Golden Knights are off to a fantastic start to the season as they are surprisingly leading the Pacific Division early on. What's been clear is that the Knights want to win with their defense. They've allowed more than two goals just once in five games and have really come together quickly on the defensive end. They've also gotten some great goaltending play from Marc-Andre Fleury and Malcolm Subban. The St. Louis Blues are still battling through a bevy of injuries, and that has made goals tougher to come by. Until they are 100% healthy, the Blues will prefer to slow things down and make the other team earn their goals. This one should be a tight, low-scoring affair and we like the UNDER.
Jason Sharpe
Navy (+8 ) over Central Florida
Central Florida has emerged as one of the top teams in the AAC this season as they come in with a perfect 5-0 record on the year. The Knights have taken advantage of having played against a very easy schedule thus far. They face a solid Navy team here in this one who comes in off a close loss in their last game (their first defeat of the season). The Midshipmen are in their 3rd season in the AAC and have gone a very good 17-3 overall record in those 20 games thus far. They have one of the more underrated home field advantages in CFB also and are a solid play in this one getting this many points. Take Navy plus the points here.
Alan Harris
Iowa St. vs. Texas Tech
Play: Over 71
Two teams that have been trending to the over will meet when the Iowa St Cyclones hit the road to take on the Texas Tech Red Raiders at Jones AT&T Stadium in Lubbock, TX, on Saturday afternoon. The Cyclones have posted a 6-1 record to the over in their last seven games where they faced a team with a winning record and they have gone an excellent 10-2-1 to the over in their last thirteen games following a straight up win. The Red Raiders have been an over team as well in the spot they are in here on Saturday as they have gone up and over the number in thirteen of their last seventeen games where they faced a team with a winning % of .500 or higher and they are a perfect 4-0 to the over in their last four games following a straight up loss. Throw in the fact that Iowa St is 11-5 to the over in their last sixteen Big 12 games while Texas Tech is 14-6 to the over in their last 20 home contests and that's where we'll have our play as our numbers have this one turning into a shootout in Lubbock on Saturday afternoon.
Harry Bondi
IDAHO (+15) over Missouri
There is simply no way the Tigers should be laying over two TDs to anyone right now when you consider this is a team that’s 1-5 straight up and has a defense that is allowing an alarming 42.2 points per game. The Tigers have also covered just 10 of their last 30 games overall and are just 6-11 ATS in their last 17 at home. Idaho has also had its share of struggles, but the Vandals are 12-2 ATS when facing a team with a losing record and have also brought home the money in 11 of their last 15 road games. Too many points for Mizzo to handle.
Dennis Macklin
Arizona State vs. Utah
Play: Arizona St +9
Don't look now but the Arizona State Sun Devils look like they are playing to save Todd Graham's job. After a slow 1-2 start, ASU has beaten Oregon and Washington at home as a double-digit dog and gave Stanford all it wanted in Palo Alto, easily covering the 17 point spread in a 10-point loss. The Pitchforks will never be more confident then they are here coming off 13-7 upset of No.5 UWub in a game where the defense held the Huskies to 36 points and 202 yards below their season average. Granted, Utah is 6-0 ATS this year, and has won and covered four straight in the series but ... last year's game was 28-26 late second half before the Utes pulled away with three gimme late scores. State not fat and happy after the Washington win and Utah really shouldn't be laying double-digits to anyone with their LACK OF EXPLODICITY on offense. Let's grab the points and say Utah 28-24.
Andrew Lange
BYU at East Carolina
Play: Under 58
East Carolina has played a really tough schedule thus far, particularly when it comes to opposing offenses. West Virginia and UCF are tied for fifth nationally in total offense. South Florida ranks 13th. Virginia Tech ranks 25th. And UConn ranks a respectable 49th. You can't use the schedule alone as a reason for ECU's horrific defense numbers but BYU's offense is arguably one of the worst in the country meaning the Pirates are in position to put up at least some resistance in this matchup.
You can make a strong argument that BYU's opposing defense SOS is just as strong as ECU's opposing offense SOS. The Cougars have faced the likes of LSU, Wisconsin, Utah, and Boise State. But even when pitted up against softer stop units like Portland State and Utah State, BYU still struggled to move the football and put points on the board. The other thing to consider is pace. East Carolina typically plays at a fast clip in part because they are always playing behind. BYU has also played a lot of its football trailing on the scoreboard but the Cougars are still a "huddle up" team (one offensive snap every 27 seconds).
East Carolina's one "under" against FBS competition this season came against Temple in a 34-10 loss (total closed 58.5). The Owls and Cougars are very similar in a number of attributes which suggests we can look that same way for Saturday's contest.
Brad Diamond
Temple +6½
Saturday 3-4 Temple travels to West Point for a scrimmage with 5-2 Army. The visiting Owls have no victories over Football Championship units. Wins over East Carolina and UMass register FBS positives but, those units show 1-12 SU going into Saturday. The Owls are rebounding off a difficult 28-24 loss (which was on our ticket last Saturday) to UCONN. Whereas, the Cadets come in sporting a three-game winning streak over EMU, Rice and UTEP (3-16 SU on the season). Last year Army broke a six-game losing streak to Temple winning 28-13.
Critical here will be the availability of Temple QB Logan Marchi (35-54, 356) who was injured last week at home in the Huskies battle. The youngster had a productive game and HC Geoff Collins has stated: “Marchi is expected to be ready.” The biggest problem for the Owls will be their ability to curtail the Army running attack. In 2016 Temple struggled at the line of scrimmage trying to handle the more physically demanding Cadets, and that was in Philadelphia. Looking at this from the emotional standpoint, Army has Air Force on the road next time out. So, Temple off that bad loss just might have enough in the tank to hang close, considering their trying to become bowl eligible. With Army 8-18-1 ATS off a SU win and Temple 37-17-1 ATS in October, take TEMPLE plus the points.
DAVE COKIN
SOUTHERN MISS AT LOUISIANA TECH
PLAY: SOUTHERN MISS +2.5
The Golden Eagles don’t get the attention they used to as a mid-major. But this is becoming a solid program once again.
Southern Mississippi is now to the point where the coaches and players can sound unhappy after a shutout win, as is the case here. I suspect we’ll see a QB change for the Eagles here, with Griggs now healthy again. Howard was not good against UTEP, and the offense, aside from dynamic Ito Smith, sputtered for the most part.
Louisiana Tech is off a bye week, which should help following a poorly played loss to UAB. Note that Skip Holtz has not had success off the bye, going 0-4 ATS. The Bulldogs do have a revenge motive here, but I really didn’t give that much weight when analyzing this hookup.
I like the direction of the underdog here and feel that taking the available points with Southern Mississippi is the right move.
Jesse Schule
Syracuse vs. Miami
Play: Syracuse +17
Many expect Syracuse to suffer a let down coming off a dramatic upset win over Clemson last Friday, and perhaps that's why the line has been bet up several points since opening at +14.5. They will play at Miami, and the Hurricanes are undefeated and ranked in the Top 10. I wasn't exactly surprised by the Orange beating Clemson, in fact I bet on it. This team is for real, with a clutch quarterback surrounded by talent and speed, and a defense that has come a long way since last season. We've already seen them cover against Top 25 teams on the road at NC State and LSU. They haven't lost by double-digits in any of their games this season, and they are 5-0 ATS versus teams with a winning record. Eric Dungey has thrown for over 2000 yards and 12 TDs so far this season, and I think he's more than capable of keeping the Orange within two TDs at Miami.
Jeff Allen
Idaho vs. Missouri
Play: Idaho +14½
As we all know, Idaho is dropping out of the FBS to the FCS, going from the Sunbelt to the Big Sky. This is the last chance for the Vandals to stop a 32-game road losing streak vs. Power 5 schools and they couldn't have hand-picked a better opponent than Missouri who is in complete freefall and plays no defense. The Idaho QB is the Dallas Cowboy's OC's kid and he's a four-year starter with a rifle arm. Mizzou on a 4-11 ATS run while the Vandals are 7-0 ATS in their L7 roadies.