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College Football Betting News and Notes Friday, October 20th, 2017

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College Football betting trends, odds and predictions for Friday, October 20th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites

 
Posted : October 17, 2017 1:57 pm
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W KENTUCKY (4 - 2) at OLD DOMINION (2 - 4) - 10/20/2017, 6:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.
W KENTUCKY is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 3 seasons.
OLD DOMINION is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
W KENTUCKY is 2-0 against the spread versus OLD DOMINION over the last 3 seasons
W KENTUCKY is 2-0 straight up against OLD DOMINION over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

MARSHALL (5 - 1) at MIDDLE TENN ST (3 - 4) - 10/20/2017, 7:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.
MARSHALL is 17-32 ATS (-18.2 Units) as a road favorite since 1992.
MARSHALL is 42-68 ATS (-32.8 Units) in road games since 1992.
MARSHALL is 42-68 ATS (-32.8 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
MARSHALL is 28-48 ATS (-24.8 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIDDLE TENN ST is 1-1 against the spread versus MARSHALL over the last 3 seasons
MIDDLE TENN ST is 1-1 straight up against MARSHALL over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

AIR FORCE (2 - 4) at NEVADA (1 - 6) - 10/20/2017, 9:30 PM

Top Trends for this game.
AIR FORCE is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

COLORADO ST (5 - 2) at NEW MEXICO (3 - 3) - 10/20/2017, 10:15 PM

Top Trends for this game.
COLORADO ST is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO ST is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO ST is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO ST is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO ST is 63-40 ATS (+19.0 Units) off a win against a conference rival since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
COLORADO ST is 2-0 against the spread versus NEW MEXICO over the last 3 seasons
COLORADO ST is 2-0 straight up against NEW MEXICO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

WESTERN KENTUCKY @ OLD DOMINION
Western Kentucky is 20-2 SU in its last 22 games at home
Western Kentucky is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games
Old Dominion is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Old Dominion's last 7 games

MARSHALL @ MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Marshall is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Marshall is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Middle Tennessee's last 8 games
Middle Tennessee is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home

AIR FORCE @ NEVADA
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Air Force's last 7 games at home
Air Force is 21-4 SU in its last 25 games at home
Nevada is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games at home
Nevada is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home

COLORADO STATE @ NEW MEXICO
Colorado State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing New Mexico
Colorado State is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of New Mexico's last 7 games
New Mexico is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home

 
Posted : October 17, 2017 2:00 pm
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College Football Week 8

Western Kentucky scored 60 pts/game in winning/covered its three games with Old Dominion, winning by 15-25-35 points. WKU split its two road games, losing 20-7 (-7.5) at Illinois, then escaping UTEP with a 15-14 (-17.5) win. Over last 4+ years, Hilltoppers are 7-10 vs spread as a road favorite. Old Dominion allowed 46 ppg in losing its last four games, all by 30+ points; Monarchs are 2-6 as home underdogs since moving up to I-A. C-USA home underdogs are 6-1 vs spread this season. Under is 3-2 in both teams’ games this season.

Marshall won its last four games, holding 3 of 4 opponents to 3 or less points; Thundering Herd is 2-1 on road this season- underdogs covered all three games. Marshall is 0-3 vs spread in its last three games as a road favorite. Middle Tennessee’s QB is hurt; they’re 2-1 at home this year but 1-3 vs spread when getting points. Since ’13, Blue Raiders are 3-2 as home dogs- they gave up 221+ rushing yards in their last three losses. C-USA home underdogs are 6-1 vs spread this season. MTSU is 6-1 vs spread in game following its last seven losses.

Air Force got its first I-A win LW, rallying back from down 30-7 in 3rd quarter to beat UNLV 34-30; Falcons allowed 266+ rushing yards in their last three games. Flyboys are 0-3 on road this year, 2-1 as road underdogs, despite allowing 44.3 pts/game- they’re 6-2 vs spread in last eight games as a road dog. Nevada is 1-6 with a loss to I-AA Idaho State; they’re 4-7 vs spread in last 11 games as a home underdog. Over is 3-1 in last four games for both teams. Mountain West home underdogs are 2-5 vs spread this season.

Colorado State won its last three games, scoring 41 ppg, since losing at Alabama; Rams won their last seven games with New Mexico, covering last five. State won its last three visits to Albuquerque, by 7-24-4 points. Rams are 2-0 as road favorites this year, 8-3 going back to ’13. Lobos allowed 38-38 points in their last two games; they got blanked 38-0 in Fresno LW; they are 5-2 vs spread in last seven games as a home underdog. Mountain West home underdogs are 2-5 against the spread this season. Under is 4-1 in Lobos’ last five games.

Armadillosports.com

 
Posted : October 18, 2017 11:38 am
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Friday's Tip Sheet
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

Gamblers have four games on college football’s Friday night menu in Week 8. Let’s break down a Conference USA matchup and a Mountain West contest before hitting on the other two games and much more in Bonus Nuggets.

Marshall at Middle Tennessee

As of early Thursday afternoon, most betting shops had Marshall (5-1 straight up, 5-1 against the spread) installed as a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 49 or 49.5. The Blue Raiders were +120 or +125 on the money line at most spots.

Marshall is in a first-place tie with Florida Atlantic atop the C-USA East Division standings, as both schools are sporting 2-0 records in league play. Doc Holliday’s program won 10, 13 and 10 games from 2013-2015, only to slump to a 3-9 mark last season. Well, the Thundering Herd can double last year’s win total with a victory Friday night in Murfreesboro.

Marshall has captured wins vs. Miami (OH.) (31-26), vs. Kent State (21-0), at Cincinnati (38-21), at Charlotte (14-3) and vs. Old Dominion (35-3). The Herd took its lone defeat at N.C. State by a 37-20 count in Week 2. Nevertheless, they took the cash as 21-point underdogs.

Marshall won its fourth consecutive game last week by trouncing ODU and easily covering the number as a 12.5-point home ‘chalk.’ The 38 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 48.5-point tally, providing Marshall with its third ‘under’ in its last four outings. Junior quarterback Chase Litton completed 12-of-23 passes for 176 yards and three touchdowns without an interception. Freshman RB Tyler King rushed for a team-best 77 yards and one TD on 13 carries, while Keion Davis produced 73 yards on the ground on 16 attempts. Junior Tyre Brady, a transfer from Miami, had five receptions for 76 yards and two TDs.

For the season, Litton has completed 60.2 percent of his throws for 1,382 yards with a 13/3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He has also run for one TD. After sitting out the 2016 campaign due to transfer rules, Brady has emerged as Litton’s favorite target. The junior wideout has a team-high 34 catches for 571 yards and six TDs. Marcel Williams has 23 receptions for 236 yards and one TD, while Ryan Yurachek has 25 grabs for 229 yards and four TDs.

Davis, the junior RB who ran for 469 yards and six scores last year, has shared the bulk of the rushing load with King through six games. Davis has rushed for 393 yards and one TD with a 5.0 yards-per-carry average. King has 277 rushing yards and two TDs while averaging 4.9 YPC.

Marshall is ranked 10th in the nation in scoring defense (15.0 points per game) and 24th in total defense. This unit is led by junior LB Chase Hancock, who has recorded a team-high 55 tackles, 3.5 tackles for loss, one sack, four passes broken up and two QB hurries. Sophomore DB Malik Gant has 48 tackles, four TFL’s and three PBU.

Marshall is 2-1 both SU and ATS on the road this season. However, the Herd failed to cover the number in its only road ‘chalk’ spot, a 14-3 win at Charlotte two weeks ago as a 14-point favorite. During Holliday’s eight-year tenure, Marshall has limped to a 7-14-2 spread record in 23 games as a road favorite.

Middle Tennessee (3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS) has been forced to play most of its season without its two best players, QB Brent Stockstill and WR Richie James. Before injuring his shoulder in the Blue Raiders’ 10th game of 2016, Stockstill threw for 3,233 yards with a 31/7 TD-INT ratio. James earned third-team All-American honors last year by producing 105 receptions for 1,625 yards and 12 TDs. But Stockstill sustained a cracked sternum and broken collarbone in a 30-23 Week 2 win at Syracuse. His father, head coach Rick Stockstill, ruled him ‘out’ vs. Marshall at Monday’s presser. Brent will miss his sixth straight game, but his father confirmed Monday that he does indeed expect his son to return at some points this season. James missed three games with a high-ankle sprain before returning to the field last weekend.

Stockstill completed 40-of-67 passes (59.7%) for 435 yards and four TDs with two interceptions before going down this year. James had made 18 receptions for 208 yards and two TDs in the first two games. He was injured early in the first half of a 34-3 loss at Minnesota in Week 3, but he had seven catches for 47 yards in his return at UAB last week. James also had 16 rushing yards on three attempts. For the season, James has 26 catches for 253 yards and two TDs. He has produced 388 all-purpose yards on 43 touches.

Middle Tennessee dropped a 25-23 decision to the Blazers at Legion Field in Birmingham, losing outright as a 4.5-point road favorite. Sophomore QB John Urzua connected on 23-of-42 passes for 268 yards with one TD pass, but he was intercepted twice. Brad Anderson rushed 15 times for 81 yards, and he also brought down nine catches for 137 yards and one TD.

Anderson has rushed for a team-best 367 yards with a 6.0 YPC average. The true freshman also has 28 catches for 303 yards and three TDs. He has a pair of 100-yard efforts to his credit, rushing for 104 yards vs. Bowling Green and 112 yards vs. FIU.

Middle Tennessee has wins at Syracuse (30-23), vs. Bowling Green (24-13) and vs. Florida International (37-17). The Blue Raiders defeats have come vs. Vandy (28-6), at Minnesota (34-3), at Florida Atlantic (38-20) and at UAB, as previously noted. They’re 2-1 both SU and ATS in three home games. The loss came in their lone spot as home ‘dogs this year (+3) vs. the Commodores. During Stockstill’s 12-year tenure, Middle Tennessee owns a 5-9 spread record in 14 games as a home underdog.

As a redshirt freshman in ’16, Urzua completed 59.5 percent of his passes for 816 yards with an 8/8 TD-INT ratio. He actually made his first career start at Marshall, finding 25 of his targets on 37 pass attempts for 220 yards and one TD, but he was intercepted twice in a 42-17 loss. So far this season, Urzua has connected on 64.2 percent of his throws for 1,302 yards with a 6/8 TD-INT ratio. Ty Lee has been his favorite target. The true sophomore garnered Freshman All-American honors in ’16 when he had 63 receptions for 699 and nine TDs, in addition to 107 rushing yards and one TD on just six attempts. Lee has 39 catches for 436 yards and three TDs through seven games this year. He’s also rushed for 109 yards and one TD on 35 totes.

Without Stockstill for five games and James for three, it’s been a struggle for the Middle Tennessee offense. This unit is ranked No. 115 of 130 FBS teams in points scored with a meager 20.4 PPG average. The Blue Raiders are ranked No. 110 in rushing offense.

Totals have been an overall wash (3-3) for Marshall, but the ‘over’ is 2-1 in its three previous road assignments. The Herd has seen its games average combined scores of 41.5 PPG.

The ‘under’ is 6-0-1 for Middle Tennessee, 2-0-1 in its home games. The Blue Raiders have seen their games average combined scores of 45.9 PPG.

Colorado State at New Mexico

As of early Thursday afternoon, most betting shops had Colorado State (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS) listed as a 7.5-point favorite with a total of 58.5. The Lobos were +245 on the money line (risk $100 to win $245).

Colorado State is atop of Mountain West Conference’s Mountain Division standings with a one-half game lead over both Wyoming and Boise St., both of whom are 2-0 in league play. CSU owns a 3-0 record in MWC games.

CSU has won three in a row since losing 41-23 at Alabama in Week 3, but its three-game winning streak ATS was snapped in last week’s 44-42 win over Nevada as a 25-point home favorite. The 86 combined points soared ‘over’ the 65.5-point total. The Rams jumped out to a 14-0 lead, but the Wolf Pack kept answering, tying the score three times at 14-14, 21-21 and 28-28. Nevada took its first lead (35-28) on a 65-yard TD pass from Ty Gangi to Wyatt Demps with 9:04 left in the third quarter. After CSU countered with a field goal, Gangi found Brendan O’Leary-Orange for a 55-yard scoring strike to give the Wolf Pack a 42-31 advantage with 3:13 remaining in the third. CSU’s Dalyn Dawkins ripped off a 59-yard TD run on his team’s next possession, and Nick Stevens hooked up with Michael Gallup on a 17-yard TD pass to close out the scoring with 12:08 left. Stevens hit 26-of-37 pass attempts for 384 yards and four TDs without an interception. Dawkins ran for 191 yards and one TD on just 17 attempts, while Gallup hauled in 13 receptions for 263 yards and three TDs.

CSU has collected wins vs. Oregon State (58-27), vs. Abilene Christian (38-10), at Hawaii (51-21), at Utah State (27-14) and vs. Nevada. The defeats have come vs. Colorado (17-3 in Denver) and at Alabama (41-23).

CSU is 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS on the road this year, going 2-0 ATS in a pair of road ‘chalk’ situations. The Rams are 4-2 ATS in six games as road favorites during Mike Bobo’s three-year tenure. Bobo played at Georgia in the 1990s and then served as offensive coordinator on Mark Richt’s UGA staff for eights years. He was on that UGA staff for a total of 14 season before accepting his first head-coaching gig in Ft. Collins.

For the season, Stevens has completed 63.8 percent of his passes for 2,260 yards with an 18/6 TD-INT ratio. The senior signal caller has rushed for 77 yards and one TD on 20 attempts. Gallup leads the nation in receiving yards (948) and is second in receptions with 59. He has five TD catches. Dawkins has rushed for 684 yards and four TDs with a 6.5 YPC average. Izzy Matthews has 419 yards rushing and five TDs, averaging 4.9 YPC. Both players can catch it coming out of the backfield as well. Dawkins has 12 receptions for 151 yards and one TD, while Matthews has 11 catches for 118 yards and one TD. Detrich Clark is Stevens’s second-favorite target. The senior WR has 27 grabs for 355 yards and four TDs.

CSU is ranked ninth in the nation in total offense and 12th in passing yards. The Rams are scoring at a 34.9 PPG clip. On the flip side, they are struggling mightily on the other side of the ball. CSU is 94th in the country in total defense, giving up 418.7 yards per game. Even worse, the Rams are ranked No. 124 out of 130 FBS teams at defending the pass.

New Mexico (3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS) has won two of its three home games, but it is 1-2 versus the number in those contests. Bob Davie’s team captured its wins vs. Abilene Christian (38-14), at Tulsa (16-13) and vs. Air Force (56-38). The Lobos’ defeats have come vs. New Mexico State (30-28), at Boise State (28-14) and at Fresno State (38-0).

UNM is off its worst outing of the season last week, as it was dealt woodshed treatment by the Bulldogs despite having two weeks to prepare of the MWC showdown. The Lobos were clobbered by Fresno State as 2.5-point road ‘chalk.’

New Mexico had covered the number in three straight before its ill-fated trip to Fresno. In the win over Air Force two weeks ago, UNM trailed 21-14 at intermission before outscoring the Falcons 21-3 in the third quarter. Richard McQuarley’s five-yard TD run with 14:25 remaining in the fourth put his team up 42-24 and the Lobos coasted from there. Senior QB Lamar Jordan completed 4-of-9 passes for 146 yards and two TDs without an interception. He also ran for 68 yards on 10 attempts. McQuarley, who is listed as ‘questionable’ vs. CSU due to a wrist injury, torched Air Force for 179 rushing yards and five TDs on just 11 carries.

Davie has used three QBs this year. In addition to Jordan, redshirt freshman Tevaka Tuioti and junior Coltin Gerhart have seen significant playing time. However, Gerhart hasn’t played since the Week 4 win at Tulsa due to a shoulder injury that him listed as ‘questionable’ vs. CSU. Jordan has connected on 28-of-53 passes (52.8%) for 487 yards with a 3/2 TD-INT ratio. He has also run for 132 yards with a 3.9 YPC average. Tuioti has connected on 24-of-44 throws (54.5%) for 360 yards with a 2/1 TD-INT ratio. He the running threat that Jordan Gerhart are, evidenced by his 22 rushing yards on only seven totes. Gerhart has completed 16-of-27 passes (59.3%) for 175 yards with one TD pass and a pair of interceptions. He has 205 rushing yards and one TD with a 6.4 YPC average.

McQuarley averaged 3.6 YPC or less in each of the team’s first four games before exploding against Air Force. He was held to 20 rushing yards on five carries at Fresno State last week. Nevertheless, he has run for a team-best 321 yards and five TDs with a 5.7 YPC average. Tyrone Owens is UNM’s second-leading rusher with 276 yards, two TDs and a 4.4 YPC average. The Lobos don’t pass much but when they do, there are three main targets. Delane Hart-Johnson has 10 receptions for 248 yards and one TD, while Chris Davis Jr. has 18 catches for 222 yards and one TD. Jay Griffin IV has 12 grabs for 222 yards and a team-best three TDs.

CSU has won seven straight head-to-head meetings with UNM, posting a 5-1-1 spread record in those contests. The Rams covered for the fourth consecutive time in this rivalry with last season’s 49-31 win as seven-point home favorites. Stevens threw two TD passes without an interception and also ran for a pair of scores. Matthews had 107 rushing yards and one TD on 14 carries, while Dawkins ran for 102 yards on merely 10 attempts. Gallup had five receptions for 116 yards and one TD. The ‘over’ has hit in three of the last four encounters, easily cashing last year with the 80 combined points flying ‘over’ the 61.5-point tally.

The ‘over’ is 4-3 overall for CSU, 2-1 in its three true road assignments. The Rams have seen their games average combined scores of 59.4 PPG.

The ‘under’ is 5-1 overall for the Lobos, 2-1 in their home games. They’ve seen their games average combined scores of 52.2 PPG.

B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets

The earliest of the Friday games is a 6:00 p.m. Eastern kick on the CBS Sports Network. This is a C-USA matchup with Old Dominion hosting Western Kentucky. As of early Thursday afternoon, the Hilltoppers were favored by 10 points with a total of 47.5. ODU was +300 on the money line. Western Ky. won back-to-back C-USA titles and collected 23 victories in the final two years of Jeff Brohm’s three-year tenure. When Brohm bolted to take the Purdue job, Mike Sanford Jr. was named as his successor. WKU (4-2 SU, 1-4-1 ATS) has won three in a row, but it didn’t pick up its first spread cover until last week’s 45-14 win over Charlotte as an 18-point home favorite. The Hilltoppers are 0-2 ATS on the road this season and 0-3 versus the number in three games as double-digit favorites. They’ve seen the ‘under’ go 4-2 overall, 2-0 in their road outings. Since starting 2-0 with a home win over Albany (31-17) and a 17-7 triumph at UMass, ODU(2-4 SU, 1-5 ATS) has dropped four consecutive games by margins of 30, 38, 30 and 32 points. The ‘under’ is 4-2 overall for the Monarchs, but the ‘over’ is 2-1 in their home contests.

In another MWC affair, Air Force is favored by seven points at Nevada for a 9:30 p.m. Eastern kickoff in Reno on the CBS Sports Network. The Falcons have been horrible in the first half and fantastic in the second half of their last two games. Trailing 28-10 at Navy to start the third quarter two weeks ago, they rallied to take the lead 45-41 late in the fourth quarter. However, the Midshipmen got a TD pass late in the final stanza to win a 48-45 decision, although Air Forced covered the spread as an 8.5-point underdog. Then at home last week vs. UNLV, Air Force faced a 27-7 deficit at halftime. When I noticed the surprising score at intermission, I quickly checked the second-half line that had the Falcons only favored by 4.5 points (+15.5 adjusted since they trailed by 20, which was 25.5 points of value compared to closing line of -10). I pounced and cashed an easy winner when Troy Calhoun’s team rallied to win outright by a 34-30 count. The win over the Rebels snapped a four-game losing streak for Air Force, which is 2-4 SU and 3-3 ATS. The ‘over’ is 4-2 overall for the Falcons, 2-1 in their road games. Nevada (1-6 SU, 3-4 ATS) lost its first five games and the four defeats against FBS foes (it lost 30-28 to FCS opponent, Idaho St.) came by margins of 11 points or more. Jay Norvell’s squad picked up its first win two weeks ago vs. Hawaii by a 35-21 count. The Wolf Pack won outright as a five-point home underdog. Then last week as noted above, they easily covered (by 23 points) in the 44-42 setback at CSU. The ‘under’ cashed in Nevada’s first four games, but the ‘over’ is 2-1 in its last three contests.

Washington State won’t have its top WR for Saturday’s home game vs. Colorado. Sophomore Tavares Martin was given a one-game suspension for a violation of team rules. Martin has 37 receptions for 502 yards and seven TDs. His seven TD grabs is the third-most nationally. Martin’s father told the Seattle Times that his son was disciplined for “immature behavior” and a “selfish attitude,” but he has apologized to head coach Mike Leach and his teammates.

Sportsbook.ag’s updated odds to win the College Football Playoff have Alabama as the -110 favorite. The next-shortest odds belong to Ohio State (+475, risk $100 to win $475), Penn State (10/1), Clemson (10/1), Georgia (12/1) and Wisconsin (18/1).

West Virginia is getting zero love in the this week’s updated Games of the Year spreads. I like WVU in all four games in which it’s listed: +7 vs. Oklahoma St., +3 at Kansas St., -1.5 vs. Texas and +17 at Oklahoma. I believe the Mountaineers are extremely undervalued, as I have them No. 13 in my Power Rankings this week.

Sportsbook.ag has Ohio State as a nine-point home favorite next week vs. Penn State. Also, Georgia is a 13.5-point favorite for its showdown vs. Florida in Jacksonville. The Bulldogs haven't beaten UF by 14 points or more since a 37-17 victory in 1997 when Robert Edwards ran for four TDs.

 
Posted : October 20, 2017 12:17 am
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NCAAF Week 8 Predictions
By: Andrew Caley
Covers.com

Well the streak was fun while it lasted, but boy did ever come to a crashing halt late Saturday night.

Both Washington and San Diego State looked like they wanted no part in even taking the field last week and the result wasn't pretty. Both the Huskies and the Aztecs not only failed to cover, they lost outright as significant favorites (and maybe sank the Pac-12’s playoff chances).

So, new rule: no picking teams when I can barely stay up until halftime. Well, unless the line is too juicy to pass up.

Still, going on a 7-0 run was pretty exhilarating and 7-2 over the last three weeks ain’t too shabby, especially considering how crazy a week it was in college football on top of what happened to Washington and San Diego State.

Clemson lost straight up as a 27-point fave to Syracuse, Washington State got thumped as a 16.5-point chalk at Cal and Auburn blew a big lead as a 6.5-point favorite against LSU. When all was said in done, four AP Top 10 programs lost outright and went 2-7 against the spread (Penn State was on a bye).

It just goes to show how unpredictable college football can be, which makes picking these games ATS very difficult. So, that’s why when I see a streaking team, or a meaningful trend I tend to jump all over it.

That’s the case this week with the UCF Knights when they visit the Navy Midshipmen.

Thanks to the Aztecs’ loss, the path to a New Year’s Six bowl game looks all the clearer for the undefeated Knights (it’s looking like their looming regular season finale against USF will determine a lot). Central Florida is not only undefeated, it’s a perfect 5-0 against the spread as well and covering with ease.

The Knights are currently covering the spread by an average of 20 points per game. Let me repeat that: they are covering the spread by an average of 20 points per game. The closest they've come to not covering was last week when they only managed to beat ECU by 42 points as 35-point chalk. Yeah, so, they’ve been good.

Central Florida has done this thanks to owning the No. 1 scoring offense in the country, which averages over 50 points per game this season and ranks fifth in total offense.

A big reason for this is the development of quarterback McKenzie Milton. The sophomore is completing over 70 percent of his passes for 1,489 yards and 15 touchdowns with just two interceptions. Milton also has plenty of weapons at his disposal. Six players have over 100 rushing yards this season for the Knights, while seven have more than 100 yards receiving. However, it's the underrated defense which will put them over the top in this matchup.

Central Florida ranks 29th in total defense and is allowing just 16.8 point per game. But more importantly, against Navy’s triple option offense, it ranks 18th versus the run allowing just 110.2 yards on the ground per game.

The Knights just have too many ways to beat you and the Middies won't be able to keep up. Seven and a half points is a gift. Central Florida wins by double digits.

Pick: UCF -7.5

Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets(-5, 47.5)

Speaking of teams on streaks, no one has done a better job of inflating its backers' bankrolls than Georgia Tech.

The Yellow Jackets are 5-0 ATS this season and 9-0 against the spread in their last nine games dating back to 2016.

The early action has been on a good Wake Forest squad, moving the line down from Georgia Tech -7 to the current number of -5. But bettors are still looking at the Demon Deacons like the team that started 4-0, going up against a 3-2 team. And that truly feels like a mistake to me.

Georgia Tech is two unlucky breaks from being 5-0. The Jackets' two losses are by a combined two points: a 42-41 overtime defeat on a neutral field against Tennessee and last week’s heart-breaking last-second 25-45 loss to Miami.

The Yellow Jackets and their triple-option offense rank third in the nation behind the explosive TaQuon Marshall, but its the Jackets’ 15th ranked defense that could make real trouble for Wake Forest. They're almost as equally strong against the run as they are against the pass.

The Yellow Jackets are better and keep their ATS streak going.

Pick: Georgia Tech -5

LSU Tigers at Mississippi Rebels (+7, 59.5)

When LSU was down 20-0 to Auburn last week, the chatter started. “The season is down the tubes”, “What’s up with Matt Canada’s offense”, and “Is it already time to start thinking about replacing Ed Ogeron?”

It looked bleak, down 20 points to a hated rival, staring down the barrel of their third loss in five weeks, which included one as a 20.5-point home favorite against Troy. But then, the narrative changed.

Louisiana State's defense clamped down, allowing just three points the rest of the game and LSU clawed all the way back for a 27-23 victory as a 6.5-point pup.

The Tigers have life again as they head into their matchup with Mississippi and that could mean bad things for the Rebels.

Mississippi is clearly feeling the bumps and bruises of a rebuild year and its offense relies heavily on the arm of Shea Patterson, who is eighth in the country in passing yards. Unfortunately, that plays right in to the Tigers’ strengths.

Louisiana State ranks 14th in the country in pass defense and is coming off a performance in which it held Auburn’s Jarrett Stidham to 9-of-26 passing for just 126 yards. They're also the fourth-best team at getting to the quarterback with 23 sacks this season.

Meanwhile, the Tigers’ offense should be able to do enough damage in the ground game, especially against a Rebels defense that ranks 118th against the run, to cover the number.

Pick: LSU -7

Last week: 1-2
Season to date: 13-8 (61.9%)

Heisman Odds Update

Well, I have to eat crow on talking up Luke Falk. Just mere hours after calling him superb value to win the Heisman at 30/1, the Washington State signal caller goes out and plays what was probably the worst game of his career. The Cougars got hammered 37-3 by Cal as 16.5-point faves and Falk went just 38-for-43 with no touchdowns and five picks. Ouch. Unless Falk and the Cougs go on some incredible run in the second half of the season, his Heisman hopes are probably down the tubes. The Westgate LV Superbook now has him at 100/1 to win the award.

However, what Week 8 does give us is a brand new favorite to win the Heisman Trophy: Stanford’s electric running back Bryce Love. Love essentially came out of nowhere in the Heisman race, opening the season as a 100/1 long shot, and thanks to Love’s incredible start to the season and Penn State’s Saquon Barkley having a couple of down weeks (by his super-human standards, of course), he's now the 7/5 favorite, just ahead of Barkley at 8/5.

Love added to his ridiculous rushing totals last week by torching Oregon for 147 yards and two touchdowns on just 17 carries. He now has 1,387 yards with 11 touchdowns and is averaging 10.3 yards per attempt. Yowza. Love and Stanford are on bye this week.

Barkley, meanwhile, has just 131 yards at a clip of 3.6 yards per carry. However, if he can pull off a big game against a good Michigan defense this week and keep the Nittany Lions undefeated, look for him to be favored again shortly.

Quarterbacks from the Sooner State, Baker Mayfield and Mason Rudolph are on the board at 7/1 and 10/1 respectively, but the name to keep an eye on is Ohio State’s J.T. Barrett at 7/1.

Take a look at what Barret has done since the loss to Mayfield and Oklahoma back in Week 2. He has led the Buckeyes to five straight wins (3-2 ATS), throwing for 1,340 yards and 18 touchdowns with no interceptions, while adding 232 yards and four scores on the ground. Ohio State is on bye before a huge matchup with Barkley and Penn State next week.

 
Posted : October 20, 2017 10:26 pm
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USC at Notre Dame
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

Notre Dame (5-1 straight up, 5-1 against the spread) has had two weeks to prepare for its annual showdown against Southern Cal. This encounter will go down in South Bend on Saturday night at 7:30 p.m. Eastern on NBC. The winner will keep its hopes of a College Football Playoff berth alive, while the loser will no longer be a part of that conversation.

As of Friday afternoon, most betting shops had the Fighting Irish installed as a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 65.5. The Trojans were +145 on the money line (risk $100 to win $145).

Brian Kelly won at least eight games in the first six years of his tenure at Notre Dame, taking it the BCS Championship Game after an unbeaten regular season back in 2012. However, the program went through quite the ordeal in 2016, limping to an abysmal 4-8 record while losing seven of eight one-possession games.

To date, Kelly’s 2017 team has responded well. After trouncing Temple by a 49-16 count in its opener, Notre Dame dropped a 20-19 heartbreaker to Georgia when the Bulldogs made a field goal late in the fourth quarter. Since then, though, the Irish has won four in a row both SU and ATS, thumping each foe by 20 points or more.

The four-game stretch has included wins at Boston College (49-20), at Michigan State (38-18), vs. Miami (OH) (52-17) and at North Carolina (33-10). With starting QB Brandon Wimbush nursing a sore foot, sophomore Ian Book was given his first career start in Chapel Hill. Book wasn’t very impressive, but UNC didn’t have any answers for the Irish’s ground game.

Notre Dame rushed for 341 yards with a 6.0 yards-per-carry average to cruise to the spread cover as a 13.5-point road ‘chalk.’ Josh Adams gave the Irish a 14-0 lead early in the second quarter after busting a 73-yard touchdown run. Adams would rush for 118 yards and one TD on 13 carries, while redshirt freshman Deon McIntosh ran for a team-best 124 yards and two TDs on just 12 attempts. Book completed 17-of-31 passes for 146 yards and one TD, but he was intercepted twice. He ran for 45 yards on 12 totes.

Wimbush, a third-year sophomore, will return to the starting role under center vs. USC. In the first five starts of his career, Wimbush connected on only 52.3 percent of his passes for 782 yards with a 6/2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He’s done his best work with his legs, rushing for 402 yards and a team-best eight TDs. Wimbush is averaging 5.9 YPC.

Adams has rushed for a team-high 776 yards and five TDs, averaging an eye-popping 9.0 YPG. The junior RB has four 100-yard games and he ran for a season-high 229 on just 18 carries at Boston College. Adams also has nine catches for 84 yards.

Equanimeous St. Brown has 15 receptions for 211 yards and two TDs, while Alize Mack has 17 catches for 154 yards. Chase Claypool has 12 grabs for 144 yards and one TD.

Notre Dame is ranked No. 23 in the nation in total offense, No. 5 in rushing yards and No. 14 in scoring with a 40.0 points-per-game average.

The Irish is ranked 15th nationally in scoring defense, holding foes to 16.8 PPG. No opponent has scored more than 20 points on this unit that’s led by senior LB Nyles Morgan, who has recorded 44 tackles, 3.5 tackles for loss, one sack, one forced fumble and four QB hurries. Junior DT Jerry Tillery has 27 tackles, three sacks, 1.5 TFL’s, five QB hurries and one forced fumble.

Southern Cal (6-1 SU, 1-6 ATS) has been burning the pockets of its gambling supporters all year. Since picking up its lone spread cover in a 42-24 win over Stanford as a 3.5-point home favorite in Week 2, USC has failed to cover the number in five consecutive games. The Trojans needed to stop Utah on a two-point conversion attempt late in the fourth quarter of last week's 28-27 win as 13.5-point home ‘chalk.’

Utah led 21-7 at halftime and USC didn’t cut into the deficit until Sam Darnold found Tyler Petite for a 17-yard scoring strike with 5:56 left in the third quarter. The Trojans pulled even at 21-21 with 13:34 left in the final stanza when Darnold hit Josh Falo for a one-yard TD pass. Ronald Jones put USC back in the lead at 28-21 on Ronald Jones’s 11-yard TD scamper with 4:54 remaining.

The Utes answered with 42 seconds left on Troy Williams’s one-yard TD run. Kyle Whittingham understandably went for the win on the road, but Williams came up about a yard short on the conversion as he tucked the ball and tried to run it. Unfortunately for Utah, replays showed that Williams had Darren Carrington wide open in the end zone, but the QB decided to run it anyway.

Darnold completed 27-of-50 passes for 358 yards and three TDs without an interception. Jones ran 17 times for 111 yards and one TD, while Deontay Burnett hauled in eight receptions for 99 yards. Petite had three catches for 79 yards and two TDs.

For the season, Darnold has completed 62.7 percent of his throws for 2,063 yards with a 15/9 TD-INT ratio. Since his team dropped a 30-27 decision at Washington St., Darnold has a 6/1 TD-INT ratio in back-to-back contests.

Jones has rushed for 640 yards and eight TDs with a 6.3 YPC average. Stephen Carr has run for 309 yards and three TDs, averaging 5.9 YPC. Carr also has 13 catches for 130 yards, while Jones has six receptions for 112 yards and one TD. However, Carr is 'out' at Notre Dame due to a foot injury.

Burnett is Darnold’s favorite target, grabbing 49 catches for 626 yards and six TDs. Steven Mitchell has 23 receptions for 333 yards and two TDs, while Tyler Vaughns has 25 grabs for 287 yards and one TD.

USC’s wins have come vs. Western Michigan (49-31 in a misleading final score; the game was tied midway through the fourth quarter), vs. Stanford (42-24), vs. Texas (27-24 in double overtime), at California (30-20), vs. Oregon State (38-10) and vs. Utah (28-27).

Notre Dame is 2-1 both SU and ATS at home this season. The Irish have been home ‘chalk’ 39 times during Kelly’s eight-year tenure, compiling a 17-19-3 spread record. Meanwhile, USC is 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS on the road this year. The Trojans own a 1-4 ATS mark in five games as road underdogs since Clay Helton took over midway through the 2015 campaign.

When these teams met at The Coliseum last November, USC captured a 45-27 victory and took the cash as a 17.5-point home favorite. Adoree Jackson was the catalyst for the Trojans, scoring TDs on a 55-yard punt return and a 97-yard kickoff return. The kick return with 47 seconds left in the third quarter gave USC a 38-21 advantage. USC went ahead of the number for the first time in the game on Darnold’s two-yard TD pass to JuJu Smith-Schuster with 9:40 remaining. Notre Dame threatened the backdoor cover when Malik Zaire hit St. Brown for a 15-yard scoring strike.

When you’re down by 24 points, you should always go for two after a TD in an attempt to trim the deficit to 16, which makes it a two-possession game. However, with only 1:02 remaining, I’m sure there were many bettors hoping Kelly would simply go for one. That wasn’t the case, though, and a run on the two-point conversion failed to allow USC backers to cash tickets. The 72 combined points went ‘over’ the 60-point total.

Darnold threw for 205 yards and two TDs without an interception. Jones rushed for 134 yards and one TD on 16 carries, while Jackson scored a third TD on a 52-yard reception. Adams paced the Irish with 180 rushing yards on 17 attempts.

When these teams last met in South Bend two years ago, Notre Dame captured a 41-31 win as a five-point home favorite.

The ‘over’ is 4-2 overall for Notre Dame, 2-1 in its home games. The Irish’s games have averaged combined scores of 56.8 PPG.

The ‘under’ is 4-3 overall for the Trojans, 2-0 in their road assignments. They’ve seen their games average combined scores of 58.1 PPG.

B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets

Idaho is a 14-point underdog at Missouri. The Vandals have been an incredible money maker as a road underdog recently, producing a 16-3 spread record in their last 19 such spots.

Utah is a 9.5-point home favorite vs. Arizona State, which could fall into letdown mode after last week’s monster 13-7 home win over previously-unbeaten Washington. Williams started all 13 games for the Utes last season, but he lost his job to Tyler Huntley in August. Williams has started the last two games while Huntley has been nursing an arm injury. Huntley led Utah to a 4-0 record before suffering the injury in a 30-24 win at Arizona. He had completed 73.3 percent of his passes for 966 yards with a 6/2 TD-INT ratio, in addition to rushing for 208 yards and three TDs. Huntley is ‘questionable’ vs. ASU. Two other key players for the Utes are listed as ‘questionable,’ starting DE Kyle Fitts and starting WR Raelon Singleton, who has 14 receptions for 185 yards and one TD.

Assuming the line holds as it stood Friday afternoon (Auburn -15.5 at that time), this will be the richest home underdog spot of Bret Bielema’s five-year tenure at Arkansas. The Razorbacks have been double-digit home ‘dogs on Bielema’s watch twice, going 1-1 ATS. They lost 45-33 but covered as 14-point puppies vs. Texas A&M in 2013, and they dropped a 49-30 decision to Alabama as 14-point ‘dogs last year. The Hogs won’t have starting QB Austin Allen for a second straight week.

Coach of the Year Candidates:

1 - Gary Patterson (TCU)
2 - Kirby Smart (Georgia)
3 - Bronco Mendenhall (Virginia)
4 - Mark Dantonio (Michigan St.)
5 - Nick Saban (Alabama)

Honorable Mention: James Franklin (Penn State), Jeff Brohm (Purdue), Rocky Long (San Diego State), Dino Babers (Syracuse), Mike Leach (Washington State), Scott Frost (UCF), Will Muschamp (South Carolina) and Dave Doeren (N.C. State) and Kliff Kingsbury (Texas Tech).

Tennessee was a 36-point underdog at Alabama as of Friday afternoon. If that line holds, it will be the richest ‘dog spot in the history of the UT program.

Kentucky will get its best defensive player, junior LB Jordan Jones, back for the first time since Week 2 on Saturday at Mississippi St. Jones has been out more than a month with a shoulder injury. MSU was favored by 13 as of Friday afternoon. The Wildcats are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as road underdogs.

Duke owns a 21-12-1 ATS record in 34 games as a home favorite during David Cutcliffe’s 10-year tenure. The Blue Devils were eight-point home favorites vs. Pittsburgh as of Friday afternoon.

The ‘under’ has cashed in five straight Kent State games.

 
Posted : October 20, 2017 10:28 pm
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College Football Week 8 Best Bets
By BetOnline.ag

It seems like every week in college football there are massive upsets, and after last week saw #2, #5, #8, and #10 all lose outright, the CFB rankings undertook another big shakeup this week. All of these losses by big programs means it's anybody's guess which four programs will end up being in the CFB Playoffs as there is still plenty of football left on the schedule and undoubtedly there will be more highly ranked teams going down.

Now that it's the week after an upset week like we had in Week 7, there are more and more solid situational handicapping spots that arise. There are plenty of those around the country in various shapes and forms in Week 8, but it's two high profile “sandwich” spots for teams that pulled off big wins a week ago that I'm focusing on for this week's best bets.

Best Bet #1: Mississippi +7

Ole Miss hasn't been good to bettors all year with their 1-4-1 ATS record, but they have gone 1-0-1 ATS the past two weeks and are coming off a 57-35 drubbing over Vanderbilt a week ago. This will be the first time they've played back-to-back home games since the first two weeks of the year (won both by double digits against weak, non-conference foes), and should prove to be a very tough out as home dogs against an LSU team that's riding high at the moment.

LSU has had their own ups and downs this year, but last week's win as 6.5-point home underdogs against #10 Auburn was definitely the highest of the high. The Tigers now go out on the road this week to face a 3-3 SU Mississippi team that LSU has to believe they'll be able to beat even if they don't play their best. But overlooking anyone in the SEC is a slippery slope and LSU is actually in a horrible spot this week.

See, not only is LSU coming off a huge upset win over #10 in the country, but they've got another huge game on deck with a trip to #1 Alabama coming. There is a bye week coming after this week's game which negates a bit of the bite in this sandwich spot, but laying a TD on the road in SEC play is always tough – unless you are Alabama – and it's not like LSU has been the model of consistency or a bettors wet dream this year. LSU is 2-4-1 ATS themselves this season and this is a few points too many to lay.

Finally, when you consider that the home team in this SEC West rivalry has won SU the last five years and seven of the last eight, taking the points becomes the clear way to go. Going back even further, the underdog is on a 13-4 ATS run in this rivalry and 11 of the past 16 meetings have seen Ole Miss cover whatever number they've been saddled with. This game should come down right to the wire, and even if Ole Miss isn't able to pull off the outright upset, they'll keep it well within this number of 7.

Best Bet #2: Baylor +9

Taking the points with a 0-6 SU Baylor team (2-4 ATS) might not be the first play that jumps off the board to many this week, but the Bears were steadily improving each week until a 59-16 road loss at Oklahoma State last week stopped them in their tracks for a minute. However, this team lost by 8 as +27.5-point underdogs against Oklahoma a few weeks back, and managed to cover the number the following week (+14.5) in a loss to K-State.

So even though Baylor is 0-6 SU this year, in their three home games they've yet to lose by more than 8 points (came against Oklahoma), and it's not hard to argue that the Sooners are a much better squad then what West Virginia has going for them in 2017.

Yet, West Virginia jumped into the Top 25 this week after they were able to knock off #24 Texas Tech a week ago. That was a home game for the Mountaineers, who used a 22-0 fourth quarter rally to beat the Red Raiders by 11. For the first three quarters of that game it looked like Tech was in complete control, but big plays and turnovers ended up working in West Virginia's favor late and propelled them to the victory. To lose the total yardage battle by 117 yards and win by 11 means that quite a few bounces went West Virginia's way.

Now this week they go out on the road where they are 1-2 SU – their only win coming against a very, very bad Kansas program – where their only ATS victory came in a 7-point loss as 12-point underdogs against TCU. So they've already shown that they are nowhere near the team they are on the road than at home, and with the home team a perfect 5-0 SU in this rivalry the past five years, history is working against them as well.

But this article is all about the “sandwich” spot, and after hosting a ranked Texas Tech team last week, West Virginia does the same thing next week when they host a ranked Oklahoma State team. There is no doubt that this Mountaineers team has been reading their press clippings this week after the win over Texas Tech and have no fear of a winless Baylor squad in this spot. So with one eye likely looking ahead to the game against OK State, and the other eye still reading the positive reviews of their performance a week ago, this is an extremely horrible spot for the Mountaineers as road favorites of this size and I'm betting they get caught in a much harder game then any of them even remotely expect.

 
Posted : October 20, 2017 10:29 pm
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Week 8 NCAAF Top 25 Betting Cheat Sheet
Covers.com

Week 8 of the college football season is here and while powerhouse matchups Michigan at Penn State and USC at Notre Dame headline the week, the remaining schedule can be tough to navigate. We break down each matchup in our Top 25 betting cheat sheet to help you handicap all of Saturday's best action.

Maryland Terrapins at (5) Wisconsin Badgers (-24.5, 50.5)

* Third-string quarterback Max Bortenschlager has completed 48.7 percent of his passes for 425 yards with five touchdowns and no interceptions in three games as starter. Maryland has converted 29.5 percent of third-down situations, 122nd in the nation.

* Badgers QB Alex Hornibrook has three passing touchdowns and five interceptions over his last three games. Only TCU and Oklahoma State have converted third downs at a better rate than Wisconsin (54.1 percent).

LINE HISTORY: The Big Ten West-leading Badgers opened as 24-point home chalk and has been bumped up to 24.5. The total opened at 52.5 and has been bet down to 50.5. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Terrapins are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a double-digit loss at home.
* Over is 6-1 in Terrapins last 7 games overall.
* Over is 6-1 in Badgers last 7 conference games.

(11) Oklahoma State Cowboys at Texas Longhorns (+7, 65)

* The Sooners are the only Division I team averaging more than 400 passing yards per game; since 2011, only Washington State (2014) and Texas Tech (2016) have achieved the feat. The Oklahoma State defense has held FBS foes to 4.8 yards per play.

* The Longhorns have converted just 74.1 percent of their red-zone drives into points, ranking 110th in the nation in that category. Texas is one of three Division I schools to have scored four defensive touchdowns to date.

LINE HISTORY: The Longhorns hit the board as seven-point home dogs at most books and briefly went up as high as 7.5 before returning to the opening number. The total hit the betting board at 65.5 and has been bet down to an even 65. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Under is 5-1 in Cowboys last 6 road games.
* Under is 6-0 in Longhorns last 6 games following a straight up loss.
* Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Texas.
* Road team is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings.

North Carolina Tar Heels at (14) Virginia Tech Hokies (-21, 51.5)

* The Tar Heels have made good on just 29.5 percent of their third-down chances, better than only five other Division I schools. North Carolina QBs Chazz Surratt and Brandon Harris have combined to throw nine interceptions, 13th-most nationally.

* Opposing FBS quarterbacks have completed just 46.3 percent of their passes against the Hokies' vaunted defense - the second-best rate in the country. Virginia Tech has controlled the football 57.3 percent of the time, good for eighth in Division !.

LINE HISTORY: Virginia Tech opened as massive 22-point home faves for this ACC showdown and at most books the number has been dropped to 21. The total hit the betting board at 51.5 and has yet to move off the opening number. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Tar Heels are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 conference games.
* Under is 8-0 in Tar Heels last 8 games in October.
* Under is 13-3 in Hokies last 16 games following a bye week.
* Under is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings in Virginia Tech.
* Tar Heels are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

Tennessee Volunteers at (1) Alabama Crimson Tide (-36, 51)

* The Volunteers allow an average of 242.8 rushing yards per game - eighth-most in Division I - but have surrendered just 12 rushing scores through six games. Tennessee RB John Kelly has two scores in five games since his four-TD season opener.

* FBS opponents are averaging a paltry 0.154 points per play against the Crimson Tide, the second-lowest scoring rate in the country. Alabama is also one of only six schools to have thrown no more than one interception so far this season.

LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers installed Bama as 34-point home chalk but bettors have pushed the line up as high as 36 at some shops. The total opened at 50.5 and is up slightly to 51. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Volunteers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
* Over is 9-2 in Volunteers last 11 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

Indiana Hoosiers at (19) Michigan State Spartans (-6.5, 46)

* The Hoosiers rank inside the top-30 nationally in penalties per game (5.2) while drawing more than eight flags per contest from their opponents. Indiana's 4.7 yards-per-play average in FBS games ranks 110th in Division I.

* The Spartans have surrendered just six sacks for a loss of 26 yards through their first six games. QB Brian Lewerke has just 214 total passing yards with one touchdown and an interception over his last two outings.

LINE HISTORY: The Spartans opened as 7.5-point home faves and money quickly came in on the Hoosiers driving that line as low as -6, but since the line has come back up to MSU -6.5. The total hit the board at 44.5 and was bet up as high as 46.5, before settling at an even 46. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Michigan State.
* Over is 8-1 in the last 9 meetings.
* Home team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
* Hoosiers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Michigan State.

(20) Central Florida Knights at Navy Midshipman (+7.5, 65)

* The Knights average an NCAA-best 50.4 points per game; no team has finished the year with an average above 50 since 2013. UCF is one of only three Division I teams averaging at least 10 penalty flags per game.

* Seven different players have recorded at least one rushing score for the Midshipmen. Navy has converted 39 of 80 third-down opportunities in 2017, good for a 48.8-percent success rate that ranks 10th nationally.

LINE HISTORY: The Knights hit the betting board as 6.5 road chalk and bettors pushed that line as high as 8 before it faded back to 7.5. The total opened at 66 and remained there most of the week before dropping to 65 Thursday afternoon. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Knights are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
* Under is 6-1 in Knights last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 4-1 in Knights last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
* Under is 4-1 in Midshipmen last 5 conference games.

Syracuse Orangeman at (7) Miami Hurricanes (-17, 59.5)

* Opponents are a stunning 22-for-92 on third downs against the Orange; only Michigan and Georgia Tech have lower opponent success rates. QB Eric Dungey has accounted for 20 touchdowns, nine of those coming over his last three games.

* The Hurricanes have scored points on 21 of their 22 red-zone opportunities, the seventh-best success rate in the nation. The Miami defense averages 3.4 sacks per contest, fifth-most in Division I.

LINE HISTORY: Most oddsmakers opened with the U as 14.5 home faves and public money came in on the home team pushing that number as high as 17, where it currently sits. The total started out at 57.5 and has also been driven up settling at 59.5. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Hurricanes are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up win.
* Under is 9-1 in Orange last 10 conference games.
* Under is 5-1 in Hurricanes last 6 games overall.
* Favorite is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

(9) Oklahoma Sooners at Kansas State Wildcats (+14, 54)

* Sooners QB Baker Mayfield has thrown for at least 300 yards and two touchdowns in five of six games this season and has tossed for multiple TDs in 20 straight games overall. Oklahoma has allowed opponents to score points on 95 percent of red-zone visits.

* The Wildcats are one of eight Division I teams to convert fewer than 30 percent of their third-down opportunities (29.6). The Kansas State defense averages 1.5 sacks through six games, ranking just inside the top-100 in Division I.

LINE HISTORY: The Sooners opened as 12.5 road chalk and that number wasn’t high enough for bettors as the line was quickly raised to 14, where it has remained since Tuesday. The total opened at 59 briefly inched up to 60 and since then money has been coming in on the under, dropping the total to 54. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Wildcats are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
* Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Kansas State.
* Sooners are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Kansas State.
* Road team is 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 meetings.

(13) South Florida Bulls at Tulane Green Wave (+11.5, 54)

* The Bulls have scored 30+ points in 23 consecutive games, the nation's longest streak since 1936. South Florida ranks first in Division I in interceptions (15), second in turnovers forced (18) and third in run defense (77.8 yards per game).

* The Green Wave have rushed for 100 or more yards in 21 straight contests, and have accumulated 190 or more yards on the ground in all six games this season. Tulane has lost just four turnovers, fifth-fewest in the nation.

LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened Tulane as 11.5-point home dogs, that number briefly rose to 12.5 before returning to the opening number and has remained there. The total opened at 54 and has yet to move. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
* Green Wave are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Under is 5-1 in Green Wave last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.

(25) Louisiana State Tigers at Ole Miss Rebels (+7, 59.5)

* Tigers QB Danny Etling has exceeded 200 passing yards in a game twice this season after doing it seven times in 2016. The LSU defense has forced six turnovers on the season, ranking outside the top 100 nationally.

* The Rebels have turned red-zone visits into points at a 91.8-percent clip, good for 22nd in the country. QB Shea Patterson has thrown for six TDs and zero interceptions in his past two games after being picked off six times in his previous three games.

LINE HISTORY: The Tigers hit the board as 7-point road faves and the number dipped to 6.5 early in the week before bouncing back up to 7, where it sits. The total hit the boards at 59.5 and has remained there all week. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Tigers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
* Under is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings.
* Home team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

(15) Michigan Wolverines at (2) Penn State Nittany Lions (-9.5, 44)

* The Wolverines have been the stingiest team in the nation when it comes to third-down conversions, limiting opponents to a 20.2-percent success rate. Michigan also ranks ninth in the country in red-zone scoring success rate at 94.4 percent.

* The Nittany Lions are the only team in Division I allowing fewer than 10 points per game. Penn State ranks second in the nation in both total turnover margin (plus-12) and turnover margin per contest (plus-2.0).

LINE HISTORY: The undefeated Nittany Lions opened as 9.5 home chalk against their Big 10 rivals, money on the home team pushed the line briefly to double digits before it returned to the opening number. The total opened at 42 and within hours was bet up to 44.5, it has since faded back to 43.5 as of Friday afternoon. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Nittany Lions are 13-1-2 ATS in their last 16 games overall.
* Over is 9-2 in Wolverines last 11 road games.
* Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
* Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

(10) USC Trojans at (16) Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-3, 65.5)

* Trojans QB Sam Darnold has thrown for three or more touchdowns in four of his previous five games. Opponents have converted red-zone opportunities into points against the Trojans just 64 percent of the time, the sixth-best rate in Division I.

* The Fighting Irish rank second in the nation in yards per carry (6.9), while four different players have four or more rushing scores. FBS opponents have been flagged an average of 8.7 times against Notre Dame, the fifth-highest rate in the country.

LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened the Irish as 4-point home faves, money has been coming in on the Trojans all week and the line dropped to a field goal. The total hit the board at 60 and the over was pounded up as high as 66, before fading to 65.5, where it currently sits. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Trojans are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
* Favorite is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
* Home team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

(21) Auburn Tigers at Arkansas Razorbacks (+15.5, 52.5)

* The Tigers are one of only 20 teams in the nation to have thrown two or fewer interceptions on the season. Auburn ranks 11th in penalties per game (4.3) and 16th in penalty yards per contest (39.3).

* Freshman QB Cole Kelley could make his second straight start with Austin Allen's status up in the air; Allen is nursing a shoulder injury that could sideline him another couple of weeks. The Razorbacks have surrendered 18 sacks in six games.

LINE HISTORY: The Razorbacks opened with some books at 13 and money coming in on the visiting Tigers has pushed the line up to 15.5. The total started out around 54.5 and has been bet down as low as 52.5. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Tigers are 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
* Razorbacks are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
* Favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

(23) West Virginia Mountaineers at Baylor Bears (+9, 67)

* Opponents have converted 77.8 percent of fourth-down plays against the Mountaineers; only six teams have fared worse. The West Virginia defense has generated just seven sacks on the season.

* The Bears are one of only six Division I teams surrendering more than 500 total yards on the season. WRs Denzel Mims (seven) and Chris Platt (five) have accounted for all 12 of Baylor's receiving touchdowns to date.

LINE HISTORY: Baylor opened as high as 10.5 home dogs but the line has come down as low as +8.5 at some shops. Most books have the line at 9. The first book to open the total set it at 72.5, money on the under has driven that number as low as 67. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Mountaineers are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
* Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
* Over is 6-0 in Mountaineers last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.

Kansas Jayhawks at (4) TCU Horned Frogs (-39, 59.5)

* The Jayhawks are one of only two NCAA teams surrendering an average of six or more touchdowns per game. QB Peyton Bender has thrown at least one interception in all six games, and has just four TD passes over his previous five contests.

* The Horned Frogs own the nation's best third-down conversion rate at 56.7 percent. Eighteen different TCU players have caught at least one pass this season, while 10 players have accounted for the team's 13 touchdown receptions.

LINE HISTORY: The Horned Frogs opened as massive 37.5-home chalk and that wasn’t high enough as bettors pushed the line as high as 39 at some books. After opening as high as 60.5, the total is available at most books at 59.5. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Horned Frogs are 0-11 ATS in their last 11 home games.
* Underdog is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
* Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

Colorado Buffaloes at (18) Washington State Cougars (-10, 52.5)

* Buffaloes RB Phillip Lindsay has at least one rushing score in each of his first seven games, and has reached the end zone five times over his previous two outings. Colorado ranks tied for 30th in red-zone conversion rate at 88.9 percent.

* The Cougars have attempted a Division I-high 364 passes and rank third in passing yards per game (380.9). Only three teams have turned the ball over more often than Washington State, which has 16 turnovers through seven outings.

LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened the Cougars as high as 10.5-point home faves against their PAC-12 rivals and has been bet down as low as 9.5, with most books having the game at -10. The total opened at 56.5 and has been bet down to 52.5. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Buffaloes are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 conference games.
* Under is 6-1 in Buffaloes last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 5-0-1 in Cougars last 6 games following a straight up loss.

 
Posted : October 20, 2017 10:34 pm
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