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NFL Betting News and Notes Thursday, October 19th, 2017

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NFL betting trends, odds and predictions for Thursday, October 19th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites

 
Posted : October 17, 2017 1:43 pm
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KANSAS CITY (5 - 1) at OAKLAND (2 - 4) - 10/19/2017, 8:25 PM

Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) as a road favorite of 3 points or less over the last 3 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 49-80 ATS (-39.0 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 9-23 ATS (-16.3 Units) as a home underdog of 3 points or less since 1992.
OAKLAND is 74-103 ATS (-39.3 Units) in home games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 74-103 ATS (-39.3 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 58-83 ATS (-33.3 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
OAKLAND is 25-49 ATS (-28.9 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.
OAKLAND is 74-103 ATS (-39.3 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
OAKLAND is 19-35 ATS (-19.5 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 3-1 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 4-0 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

KANSAS CITY @ OAKLAND
Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Oakland's last 8 games at home
Oakland is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games at home

StatFox Super Situations

KANSAS CITY at OAKLAND
Play Against - Favorites (KANSAS CITY) good rushing team - averaging 4.5 or more rushing yards/carry, after being outrushed by 75 or more yards last game 92-47 since 1997. ( 66.2% | 40.3 units )

 
Posted : October 17, 2017 1:44 pm
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NFL Week 7

Chiefs (5-1) @ Raiders (2-4) — Oakland lost its last four games, scoring 6 TD’s on last 43 drives; they’re -3 in turnovers his year, with zero INT’s- they have only one takeaway in last three games. Raiders lost to Ravens/Chargers at home last two weeks. Carr returned vs Chargers, but they ran lot of shorter pass patterns to lessen chances he gets hit on his broken back. Kansas City was held to 251 yards in home loss to Steelers Sunday, its first loss in six games. KC is 3-o on road (over 3-0), scoring ppg (12 TD’s on 33 drives); Chiefs won last five series games (four by 8+ points), winning 34-20/26-10 in last two visits to Oakland. Three of last four Raider games stayed under the total. NFL-wide, divisional home underdogs are 7-5 vs spread.

Armadillosports.com

 
Posted : October 17, 2017 1:45 pm
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Chiefs, Raiders clash on Thursday Night
StatFox.com

The Raiders will be hoping to deal the Chiefs their second consecutive loss when the teams meet on Thursday.

Kansas City was undefeated heading into a home matchup with Pittsburgh last week, which probably seemed like it would result in the Chiefs moving to 6-0 on the season. The Steelers ended up winning that game, though. Pittsburgh won 19-13 as a three-point favorite in that game, but the Chiefs have a pretty good chance to get back on track here. They do have to deal with flying to California, but they’re facing a Raiders team that has wildly underperformed this season. Oakland should, however, get up for this game on Thursday. It’s a nationally televised matchup and the Raiders absolutely have to win this one if they want to make it to the postseason. If they fall to 2-5 then they can pretty much kiss the season goodbye. One thing that works in the Chiefs favor in this game is the fact that they are a ridiculous 5-0 SU (4-1 ATS) in their past five meetings with the Raiders. They’re also 17-8 SU (18-7 ATS) when going on the road to face Oakland since 1997. One trend that favors the Chiefs is the fact that they are 6-0 ATS in road games after three consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better under head coach Andy Reid. Favoring the Raiders, however, is the fact that the Raiders are 18-12 ATS against conference opponents under Jack Del Rio.

The Chiefs are coming off of a poor performance against the Steelers last week, but they’ll be looking forward to facing a lousy Raiders defense in this one. QB Alex Smith (1,637 yards, 12 TD, 0 INT) is the guy that will benefit the most from facing Oakland’s secondary here. Smith was just 19-of-34 for 246 yards and a touchdown against Pittsburgh last week, and that was his worst game of the season. That says a lot about the type of year the quarterback is having, as he didn’t throw a single pick and still will be disappointed with how he played. Look for him to throw for around 300 yards with two or more touchdowns here. And when he does go to the air, it’ll be WR Tyreek Hill (30 rec, 390 yards, 2 TD) and TE Travis Kelce (33 rec, 390 yards, 2 TD) that he’ll be throwing to. As for the running game, RB Kareem Hunt (630 yards, 4 TD) should also have his way here. Hunt has been one of the best rushers in the league thus far, and he has a legitimate shot to win Offensive Rookie of the Year. It’s hard to imagine this Oakland defense really doing much to stop him. On defense, the Chiefs will need to make sure they’re able to defend the pass, though. Oakland likes to air it out as much as any other team in the league.

The Raiders can really use a win on Thursday, but they’ll need QB Derek Carr (924 yards, 8 TD, 4 INT) to be a lot better than he was last week. Against the Chargers, Carr threw for only 171 yards with one touchdown and two picks. If he is going to turn the ball over multiple times then Oakland is going to find it very tough to start winning games. That is especially true against this Kansas City defense, as the Chiefs have a ball-hawking secondary. Carr also needs to do a better job of getting WR Amari Cooper (18 rec, 146 yards, 1 TD) involved. Cooper looked like a budding superstar in his first two years in the league, but he has been absolutely miserable as of late. That needs to change if the Raiders are going to get back on track, and RB Marshawn Lynch (257 yards, 2 TD) will also need to be a lot better moving forward. Lynch has not given the Raiders the spark in the running game that they expected. That is an aspect of this offense that must be figured out soon. And on defense, the Raiders are going to need to defend in all levels on Thursday.

 
Posted : October 17, 2017 1:46 pm
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Thursday Night Football Betting Preview: Chiefs at Raiders
Covers.com

Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders (+3, 46.5)

The Oakland Raiders were a trendy preseason choice to wind up in the conference championship game, but they are in desperate need of a victory to keep from falling out of contention in the AFC West. Riding a four-game losing streak, the struggling Raiders face a daunting task when they host the division-leading Kansas City Chiefs on Thursday night.

Oakland plugged a void this week with the signing of four-time All-Pro linebacker NaVorro Bowman, a tackling machine who moves across the Bay after he was released by the San Francisco 49ers on Friday. "A lot of experience, a lot of leadership, a lot of physicality," star outside linebacker Khalil Mack said of Bowman. "You're talking about a guy that, all you've got to do is turn the ball back to him. He's going to be there. And that's what we're ready to do." Kansas City became the last team in the NFL to lose, dropping a 19-13 decision at home to Pittsburgh on Sunday, but it has won five in a row against the Raiders. I think the positive is we've got a short week to try to get this bounce back and get this taste out of our mouth, if there is a positive," Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith said.

POWER RANKINGS: Chiefs (-4.5) - Raiders (0) + home field (-3) = Chiefs -1.5

LINE HISTORY: The Chiefs opened as 2.5-point road favorites and that number has been bet up to the key number of 3. The total hit betting boards at 47.5 and has been dropped a full point to 46.5.

INJURY REPORT:

Chiefs - DB S. Terrell (Probable, Concussion), WR T. Hill (Probable, Upper Body), OL L. Duvernay-Tardif (Questionable, Knee), RB C. West (Questionable, Concussion), WR A. Wilson (Doubful, Knee), OL P. Ehinger (Out Indefinitely, Knee), OL M. Morse (Out Indefinitely, Foot), WR C. Conley (I-R, Achilles), LB D. Nicolas (Questionable, Knee), LB T. Hali (Questionable, Knee), DB S. Nelson (Out, Abdominal), K C. Santos (Out, Groin), DB E. Berry (I-R, Achilles), RB S. Ware (I-R, Knee), DB A. Lampkin (I-R, Knee).

Raiders - FB J. Olawale (Probable, Concussion), LB M. Lee (Questionable, Ankle), LB C. James (Questionable, Knee), OL M. Newhouse (Questionable, Foot), G G. Jackson (Questionable, Foot), LB N. Morrow (Questionable, Ankle), TE L. Smith (Questionable, Knee), CB G. Conley (Doubful, Shin), DT D. Latham (Out, Suspension), LB A. Smith (Out Indefinitely, Suspension), S O. Melifonwu (Out, Knee), CB A. Hamilton (Out, Knee), G D. Kirkland (Out, Leg), K S. Janikowski (Out, Back).

ABOUT THE CHIEFS (5-1 SU, 5-1 ATS, 4-2 O/U): Kansas City averaged nearly 33 points through its first five victories, but its offense was bottled up while its 27th-ranked run defense was shredded for 194 yards. Kareem Hunt rushed for a season-low 21 yards but had five receptions for 89 yards to become the first rookie in league history to amass at least 100 scrimmage yards in each of his team’s first six games. Multi-threat receiver Tyreek Hill injured his neck in Sunday's game and it was feared he might have a concussion, but the team pronounced him good to go. Smith threw for 246 yards and a TD last week, failing to post a 100-plus passer rating for the first time.

ABOUT THE RAIDERS (2-4 SU, 2-4 ATS, 2-4 O/U): Derek Carr returned to the lineup after missing one game with a fractured bone in his back, but had another mediocre game and has four interceptions in his past three contests after tossing only six picks in the entire 2016 season. The vertical passing game has been a staple in Oakland since the franchise's inception, but deep threat Amari Cooper has a combined nine receptions for 51 yards during the four-game skid. Marshawn Lynch has not provided the expect jolt to the ground game, rushing for two TDs and an averaging 42.8 yards rushing. Only three teams in the league have fewer than the Raiders' 11 sacks.

TRENDS:

* Chiefs are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 road games.
* Raiders are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
* Under is 8-1 in Chiefs' last 9 vs. a team with a losing record.
* Under is 5-0 in Raiders' last 5 vs. AFC West.
* Chiefs are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 meetings in Oakland.

CONSENSUS: The public is siding with the road favorite Chiefs at a rate of 72 percent and the Under is picking up 52 percent of the totals wagers.

 
Posted : October 19, 2017 11:09 am
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TNF - Chiefs at Raiders
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com

A missed extra point took the air out of the Oakland Coliseum last week, leaving the door open for the Chargers to steal a win with a late field goal. The snap was bad, kicker Giorgio Tevecchio couldn't salvage it and the defense fell short too. Philip Rivers methodically guided L.A. down the field, converting on first downs and ultimately killing the clock to leave only enough time for Nick Novak's last-second chip shot.

The Raiders certainly didn't dominate the game, but were in position to win in Derek Carr's return to the lineup throughout most of the afternoon. They only trailed for less than two-and-a-half minutes prior to Novak's kick at the gun, but the buzz following Cordarelle Patterson's electrifying 47-yard run died down immensely after the Tevecchio miss, as if everyone in attendance knew what was coming.

A lot has changed since Marshawn Lynch was celebrating his debut as a football player repping his home city by dancing during a blowout of the Jets. For one, New York has won three times since then, while the Raiders have come up empty. Carr missed a home loss to Baltimore after getting banged up in Denver, which followed up a complete no-show in Washington on a Sunday night where they suffered their first loss. An offense that scored 45 points in a Sept. 17 win hasn't broken 17 in four straight outings. Although the playoffs are still well within reach and it's not time to hit the panic button just yet, there's no question that falling to 0-3 within the division would be tough to overcome. Conversely, defeating a Chiefs team that was the last remaining unbeaten in the NFL entering last weekend would go a long way in helping turn things around.

The Chiefs have owned this series of late as you can see in the chart listing the recent meetings in this divisional rivalry available below. Carr picked up his first victory as a pro starter in a 24-20 win as a rookie back in '14, but has lost five straight. Jack Del Rio has been unable to beat Andy Reid's team since taking over as head coach the next season.

Count Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree among the Raiders that have come up empty against Kansas City, which spells trouble considering how much trouble they've had getting the passing game going. Cooper has been a shell of himself since opening the season with five catches for 62 yards and a score against the Titans. Since that game, he's caught 13 balls over the last five contests for a grand total of 84 yards. The longest gain in that stretch has gone for 16 yards, which calls into question whether he's dealing with something physical or whether he's simply lost it mentally.

Crabtree has bounced back from an injury and has been Oakland's best weapon again, but the feared passing attack that was supposed to help this team compete with Tom Brady's Patriots for a Super Bowl bid hasn't materialized. Poor offensive line play has been a major culprit, especially since the Lynch-led running game has also struggled to get going despite the fact he's returned from retirement in shape and running hard.

While the Raiders' offensive issues have been an issue for more than a month, Kansas City comes off its first game failing to score 20 points since January's 18-16 home loss to Pittsburgh. Remove the Steelers from the equation, and the Chiefs are a perfect 16-0 when scoring at least 19 points over the last year-plus. They lost identical 19-17 results at home against Tampa Bay and Tennessee and have actually been more formidable outside of Arrowhead of late, winning eight straight. That streak began last season in Oakland.

Smith failed to lead a touchdown drive until DeAnthony Thomas escaped late against the Pittsburgh secondary, eluding defenders to turn a big pass play into a huge score. He's 9-1 all-time against the Raiders, winning seven of eight with Kansas City, and has thrown 19 touchdowns against just four interceptions in lighting up Oakland's secondary. The Raiders have had major issues in the back this season and have yet to force a pick, currently sitting as the only team in the league without one.

Looking for a spark on a defense that did look improved last week, Oakland signed NaVorro Bowman, who was recently let go by the 49ers. He's expected to play immediately, which tells you how badly the Raiders are hurting for quality bodies.

The Steelers were able to control the game by running the ball down Kansas City's throats, so don't be surprised to see the Raiders take a similar approach to try and keep an explosive offense off the field. In playmakers like Travis Kelce, rookie Kareem Hunt, Tyreek Hill, Albert Wilson and Thomas, the Chiefs have the personnel to take advantage of a Raiders defense that has been plagued by the passing game. Conditions should be clear for most of this game, though showers could be a factor late. If the weather holds up, Smith should be able to add to his gaudy career numbers against the Raiders if he gets protection. That's a bigger if than usual, as you'll read in tonight's injury report.

Kansas City Chiefs
Season win total: 9 (Over -120, Under +100)
Odds to win AFC West: 2/5 to 5/13
Odds to win AFC: 13/5 to 3/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 6/1 to 6/1

Oakland Raiders
Season win total: 9.5 (Over +100, Under -120)
Odds to win AFC West: 8/1 to 10/1
Odds to win AFC: 15/1 to 20/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 30/1 to 40/1

LINE MOVEMENT

If you're a huge believer in the Raiders, as I was earlier this season when I had them as my projected AFC runner-up, now is the time to get in on a Raiders rebirth. Odds have never been more lucrative since the bandwagon has understandably grown lighter during their losing streak. If Oakland beats the Chiefs, backing an AFC title or Super Bowl berth won't yield the same return. The numbers above illustrate the changes made by Westgate from Week 6 to Week 7 after the most recent loss to L.A.

Kansas City's odds changed only slightly despite its first loss, and it remains at 6/1 to win the Super Bowl, which is solely behind New England (4/1) and Pittsburgh (5/1) among all NFL teams.

As far as this matchup is concerned, the Chiefs were installed as a 2.5-point favorite when the Westgate's early numbers were announced, opening the week there at a few shops but quickly moving to 3, which is where at resides pretty much everywhere as of gameday morning. The total opened at 47-47.5, but is now most widely available at 46.5 with a few 46s in the mix.

Kansas City is in the -160 range on the money line if you don't want to lay the possession on the road just to flirt with a push, while backing Oakland outright will get you +150.

ODDSMAKER'S TAKE

Scott Cooley of Bookmaker.eu dropped knowledge on what his shop is seeing as of Wednesday afternoon.

"The wiseguys haven’t gotten involved with the TNF spread at this point, and it feels like a pretty good number considering the matchup," Cooley said. "The public is siding with K.C. as we have 70 percent of that action on the visitor. We’ve taken some sharp money on the under and have 65 percent of the handle on that side of the total."

INJURY CONCERNS

Both teams come in hobbled up front, each missing key figures along the offensive line. For the Raiders, right tackle Marshall Newhouse couldn't practice due to a foot injury and has been ruled out. Second-year pro Vadal Alaexander, a seventh-round pick from LSU who has had major protection issues over his brief career. Guard Gabe Jackson was limited by a foot injury but will play for Oakland.

Kansas City will again be without key o-lineman Mitch Morse and Laurent Duvernay-Tardif, which makes it more likely that Smith will be in check-down mode on the road. RB Charcandrick West has also been ruled out due to a concussion, while Raiders rookie CB Gareon Conley, the No. 24 pick in the draft, is out due to a shin injury.

The Raiders list FB Jamize Olawale and LBs Marquel Lee, Cory James and Nicholas Morrow as questionable. The Chiefs have done the same for WR Wilson due to a knee problem.

RECENT MEETINGS (Kansas City 7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS last eight; OVER 4-4)

12/8/16 Kansas City 21-13 vs. Oakland (KC -3.5, 45.5)
10/16/16 Kansas City 26-10 at Oakland (KC -2, 47)
1/3/16 Kansas City 23-17 vs. Oakland (KC -6.5, 44)
12/6/15 Kansas City 34-20 at Oakland (KC -3, 45.5)
12/14/14 Kansas City 31-13 vs. Oakland (KC -11, 41.5)
11/20/14 Oakland 24-20 vs. Kansas City (OAK +7, 42.5)
12/15/13 Kansas City 56-31 at Oakland (KC -6, 44.5)
10/13/13 Kansas City 24-7 vs. Oakland (KC -8, 41.5)

PROPS

Of the props available below at BetOnline.ag, I'd ride the OVER on field goals and do think we'll see a touchdown of 43 yards or more.

Team to reach 10 points first: (Chiefs -130, Raiders +110)
Team to reach 20 points first: (Chiefs -145, Raiders +125)
Team to score first: (Chiefs -120, Raiders +100)
Team to score last: (Chiefs -120, Raiders -110)
First score: (Touchdown -170, FG/Safety +150)
Total FGs made by both teams: (3.5, Over +125, Under -145)
Longest FG made: (46, Over -110/Under -110)
Total sacks by both teams combined: (5 Over -135, Under +115)
Will there be a score in final 2 minutes of 1st half: (Yes -260, No +220)
Will there be a defensive or special teams TD?: (Yes +220, No -260)
Will there be a TD of 43 yards or more?: (Yes -125, No +105)
Will there be a 1-yard TD?: (Yes -125, No +105)
Will there be overtime: (Yes +800, No -1250)
Will there be 3 straight scores by either team: (Yes -200, No +170)

CHIEFS AS A ROAD FAVORITE

Dating back to a season-opening win at Houston in 2015, Kansas City has been tremendous in the role, coming in 10-0 SU and ATS, which includes victimizing the Raiders twice in that span. They're 2-0 as the away chalk this season.

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RAIDERS AS A HOME UNDERDOG

Oakland is playing its first game of the season as a home 'dog and is 1-2 SU and ATS, losing to the Ravens and Chargers. The Raiders were only in this role once last season, losing to the Chiefs, and were 2-4 SU and ATS catching points at the Coliseum in '15.

Wentz won his only Thursday night game last season, beating the Giants at home in Week 16 a few days after Philadelphia was officially eliminated. That win started a run that has seen the Eagles win six of their last seven straight up.

NEXT WEEK'S NUMBERS POSTED

The Westgate opens its advance lines for the following week on Tuesdays and Week 8 currently has the Raiders as a 2.5-point road underdog at Buffalo. The Chiefs will be back on a national stage, hosting Denver in a huge AFC West clash on Monday night football. Kansas City is listed as a 6.5-point favorite.

 
Posted : October 19, 2017 11:30 am
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