Teams to Fade
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
What’s a Fade List, you ask? It’s a group of teams that you’re looking to play against. Sometimes these squads are dealing with injuries galore (see North Carolina below), a coach on his way out the door (see Tennessee below), chemistry issues, poor QB play and/or depth issues at key positions.
But here’s the thing with a Fade List – it must be constantly updated. When the books continue to get beaten by savvy gamblers wagering against a struggling squad, they’ll eventually overcompensate and suck the value out of going against that club.
On that note, I’m not implying you bet against every team listed below in Week 8. The window might be closing on fading these teams and, in some cases, it could be shut already. But the squads listed below are undoubtedly having issues right now and in some examples, the chances of getting them fixed don’t look great at this point.
North Carolina: UNC’s season was undone with a wild rash of injuries over the first six weeks of the year, including 15 – that’s right, FIFTEEN! -- season-enders. Larry Fedora has never lost more than six games during the regular season of his six-year tenure in Chapel Hill, but the Tar Heels are 22-point underdogs Saturday to lose for the seventh time at Virginia Tech. I made the Hokies 22.5-point favorites. Therefore, I’m not necessarily looking to go against UNC this week, although a first-quarter or first-half look might be worth consideration. UNC is 1-6 both straight up and against the spread, with its lone spread cover coming in a 53-23 win at Old Dominion as an 11-point road ‘chalk’ in Week 3. That’s when the Tar Heels still had Austin Proehl, who had three receptions for 48 yards and one touchdown against the Monarchs. Proehl, who is still UNC’s leader in receiving yards (270) despite not playing in the last three games, is one of the 15 UNC players who won’t return this year. Three other WRs, two tight ends, two starting offensive linemen and two reserve o-linemen are done for the season, as is last year’s second-leading tackler and third-team All-ACC selection, junior LB Andre Smith.
Fedora won 19 games in 2015 and ’16, and he’s taken UNC to the postseason four straight years (it was ineligible for a bowl in ’12 when it went 8-4). Therefore, he should be given a mulligan for this lost, injury-riddled campaign, so I don’t believe – at least not yet – that this squad will be dealing with coaching hot-seat adversity as it plays out the string. Then again, three ACC heavyweights (Va. Tech, Miami and N.C. State) are left on the slate, so it would be wise to win at least one home game. We’re talking about a visit from an FCS foe in Western Carolina on Nov. 18. (The Tar Heels are winless in five home games both SU and ATS, dropping three of those by double-digit margins.)
Florida: Suspensions? Check. Injuries? Check. Coach on the Hot Seat? Check. Issues at the QB position since Will Grier was suspended after six games in 2015? You can say that again, and again, AND AGAIN! The reality is that Florida has been suffering from extremely inept (to put it kindly) QB play since Tim Tebow played his last down for the Gators in a blowout win over Cincinnati at the Sugar Bowl to close the 2009 season. Grier went 6-0 to start Jim McElwain’s tenure but other than an offensive explosion against Ole Miss and a 61-point effort in the opener vs. New Mexico State, it’s not as if Grier was even flirting with the numbers he’s now producing at West Virginia. And since we broached that topic, we might as well ponder the notion that MAYBE Mac wishes he hadn’t showed up two hours late to that meeting with Grier and his father (when he was out recruiting Franks, an LSU verbal commit at the time) after the 2015 season. You know, the one that prompted Grier to begrudgingly leave UF even though he had zero desire to do so. Mac might want to have that one back, don’t you think?
Anyway, Florida took a big hit before the season even started when nine players were suspended indefinitely for their involvement in a credit-card fraud case. Although only two of the nine players were starters, the duo represented the offense’s two best players in RB Jordan Scarlett and WR Antonio Callaway. To be clear, the last of UF’s issues is play at the RB position. The Gators are just fine there and Scarlett hasn’t been missed in any way whatsoever. Callaway is another story, however, especially since injuries have become an issue at this position. Tyrie Cleveland, the true sophomore who had emerged as a big-time playmaker, has been sorely missed while sidelined with a high-ankle sprain the last two games. Also, Kadarius Toney couldn’t go in last week’s 19-17 home loss to Texas A&M due to a separated shoulder. Both players get this week’s open date to heal, but it’s still a concern whether or not either will be 100 percent for the Georgia game on Oct. 28.
With injuries now taking a toll on the defense, the other suspensions are looming large as the depth on that side of the ball is a major concern. Jordan Sherit, who had a team-high nine QB hurries in the first six games, just sustained a hip injury vs. Texas A&M that’ll keep him out for the season. If Sherit wasn’t UF’s best pass rusher, then Jabari Zuniga was but an injury at practice last week had him in street clothes against the Aggies.
McElwain was hired to ignite the offense, but this unit has been worse – by far – than it was on Will Muschamp’s watch. UF is ranked No. 106 of 130 FBS teams in the nation in total offense and is No. 103 in passing. The Gators are No. 98 in scoring with a 23.7 points-per-game average but if you take away the three defensive TDs on pick-sixes, UF would only be averaging 20.2 PPG. During McElwain’s tenure, UF is an abysmal 5-11 in the 16 games when the opponent scores more than 14 points. Now to be clear here, we aren’t suggesting that you look to go against the Gators in Jacksonville vs. Georgia. Sportsbook.ag has UF listed as a 13.5-point underdog in its updated Games of the Year spreads. The last time UGA beat UF by 14 points or more? That would be in 1997 when Robert Edwards scored four TDs in the Bulldogs’ 37-17 victory.
Tennessee: I’ve actually only gone against UT once this year, cashing in with South Carolina last week as a three-point underdog in its 15-9 win at Neyland Stadium. The Volunteers are in their richest underdog position of Butch Jones’s tenure this week at Alabama. Just like I was appalled that Hugh Freeze wasn’t forced to be on the Ole Miss sidelines for the 66-3 clubbing it took from the Crimson Tide at Bryant-Denny Stadium a few weeks ago, it would be borderline criminal if Jones didn’t have to take this shellacking that he’s got coming on Saturday up close and in-person. Reports out of Knoxville indicate that UT’s powerful attorneys have been working on the details of a buyout over the last two weeks. And with the torture UT’s fan base has been put through with five years of Butch-isms, there’s little doubt that the pink slip will be issued before lunch on Monday (if not sooner).
As for the on-field product, UT is either 0-6, 0-5-1 or 1-5 ATS depending on what line bettors had for its loss at Florida by six (the number was all over the place that week and in the final 90 minutes before kickoff). Jones changed QBs for some reason last week, and the result was three field goals and zero TDs. That lack of production prompted another vintage Butch-ism on Monday. “Our football team did everything there is to win the game except for scoring TDs.” Boom! He’s the gift that keeps giving, isn’t he? The Vols have chemistry issues, evidenced by two recent fights at practice. One resulted in a comical denial by Jones, who lied and said the black eye Shy Tuttle was sporting came from falling on a helmet. The second garnered an indefinite suspension for Darrell Taylor, the sophomore DE who was playing well. Injuries have been a killer, too. Four defensive starters, including one of the nation’s top safeties and all three projected starters at LB, are done for the season. So is UT’s best WR, Jauan Jennings, leaving the offense with zero proven playmakers outside of stud RB John Kelly.
Our last two teams on the Fade List are obvious since they’re the only teams in the country lacking a spread cover this year.
Georgia Southern is 0-4-1 ATS, while BYU is 0-7. I’ve been saying for more than a month that the Cougars are the nation’s most disappointing team. They went 9-4 last year with their four defeats coming by eight combined points. I took a it step further on my podcast last week, saying that these are the worst teams both Georgia Southern and BYU have put on the field in my lifetime. I don’t need to give away my age, but I do remember when Jim McMahon, Steve Young, Robbie Bosco and Ty Detmer lined up under center for BYU and hell, I was at The Swamp when Georgia Southern's two most legendary figures, former QB and College Football Hall-of-Famer Tracy Ham and the late/great head coach Erk Russell, visited Gainesville in mid-1980s.
ATS Rankings
Honorable Mention: Western Kentucky (The Jeff Brohm Effect; 1-5 ATS), Southern California (1-6 ATS), Louisville (1-6 ATS), Bowling Green (1-6 ATS), East Carolina (Never-Should’ve-Fired-Ruffin McNeil Impact; 1-6 ATS), Kansas (Where’d you go, Mark Mangino? 1-5 ATS) and Illinois (1-5 ATS; I’m an idiot for writing that Lovie Smith was a good hire!).