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NFL Opening Line Report Week 7

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NFL Opening Line Report Week 7
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com

One more result is yet to be determined for Week 6 of the NFL season, but we all already know the storylines heading into Week 7. After seeing three double-digit dogs and others that were close to it have a big weekend, we don’t have a single line over +7 at this point in time for Week 7 and there is only one game that appears like it could get to one of those numbers.

Aaron Rodgers is out. The New York Giants, despite their Sunday Night Football win, are down multiple receivers, including Odell Beckham Jr. Ezekiel Elliott is out. A lot of stars are hobbled and a lot of players on offense and defense are listed on injury reports. With a tighter set of lines this week, we’ll have to give a lot of consideration to this week’s games and numbers before we dive in.

Underdogs are 11-2 going into Monday Night Football in Week 6 and are now up around 60 percent for the season, depending on the closing number from the book that you use to grade. Road underdogs are up around 62 percent with the Giants’ win and cover on Sunday Night Football. Sportsbooks should be pretty happy about that, although a lot of the late moves on Sunday came on the dogs, so sharp bettors had a strong week. Most people did not, however.

There have been a few numbers grabs on the board as we kick off a new work week. We’ll talk about those and more as we look at the Week 7 Opening Line Report:

Kansas City (-2.5, 47.5) at Oakland – The Chiefs suffered their first loss of the season, so the 1972 Dolphins can crack open the Dom once again. It was a loss that everybody saw and a game that saw heavy money come in on both sides, but especially the Pittsburgh side. The Chiefs have to have a short memory with a trip to the Bay Area for Thursday Night Football. Bookmaker opened this number at +3 with extra juice and the juice has gotten heavier on the underdog. Some shops went straight to 2.5 with extra juice on the road favorite. This week, we know that Derek Carr will play, which is reflected in the line, but what we don’t know is how he will respond on a short week. That will be determined by the market. Considering Oakland’s body of work thus far, it will be interesting to see how this one moves. Initial indications are that books wanted to protect against Oakland action, so maybe that’s what they are expecting.

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (-6, 41) – It isn’t a big surprise to see that Cincinnati has been the preferred side on the small number of bets that have come in on this game so far. All of the teams on the bye week got steamed up last week. Interestingly, the only one that covered was New Orleans, who had three defensive touchdowns in the process. It felt like a letdown for Kansas City was coming and it felt like a talented Pittsburgh team would be the one to deliver it. The late move was undoubtedly the right move there. As far as this one goes, Cincinnati has a good defense and has had extra time. Marvin Lewis is 6-6 ATS off the bye, but this might be a better than normal spot for him, so a little bit of Cincinnati money wouldn’t be a surprise. We’re seeing extra juice on the dog side at BetOnline and Pinnacle.

Baltimore at Minnesota (-4.5, 39.5) – How will the market view Minnesota’s Week 6 performance? Green Bay lost Aaron Rodgers very early in the game and the Vikings coasted to a 23-10 win. Baltimore looked bad again and lost outright as a 5.5-point favorite to the Bears. The late move was the right one again in that game. We’ve got a -5 at both 5Dimes, BetOnline, and Pinnacle, with -4.5 at Bookmaker and DSI. Matchbook, an offshore exchange, is actually showing -5.5 as of Monday morning. With Sam Bradford probably out again, the focus shifts to Stefon Diggs, who is probably worth half a point to the line. With this one in the dead zone between 4 and 6, I’d expect some movement and I would expect it to be on the home favorite side.

Teams playing the week before going to London are 14-23-1 ATS. That applies to Minnesota and Cleveland this week.

New York Jets at Miami (-3, 38.5) – This number has fluctuated between -3.5 and -3 with extra juice at Bookmaker. MyBookie and other shops out there are sitting at -3 -120, while DSI has the best price in the market for Dolphins backers at -3 -115. The Dolphins erased a 17-0 deficit to upset the Atlanta Falcons as a double-digit dog last week and that has opened a lot of eyes in the market. The Jets won three straight and then lost under controversial circumstances to hated rival New England, so maybe some are expecting a bit of a letdown? Laying points with Miami in any situation is hard, so it’s easy to see why there seems to be a difference of opinion out there.

Carolina (-3, 41) at Chicago – The Bears are getting some respect here against a team with extra rest, which is certainly interesting. Cam Newton had two great performances and then regressed a bit last week against Philadelphia, so the market is looking to get rid of some of that Panthers stock. Every book in the market either has -3 with extra juice or -3.5 on the Panthers as road chalk at Soldier Field. Mitch Trubisky got his first career win in his first career start, but it wasn’t all that pretty. The assignment is a little bit easier against the Carolina defense this week. The extra rest factor is surprisingly not getting the Panthers a whole lot of love.

New Orleans (-4.5, 47.5) at Green Bay – The Westgate Superbook look-ahead lines had the Packers a 6.5-point favorite this week against the Saints. With Aaron Rodgers out due to a broken collarbone, the line reopened New Orleans -3.5. That’s right, folks. Aaron Rodgers is worth 10 points to the line. Pinnacle Sportsbook popped a -4 on New Orleans and the line got bumped up to -4.5. The Saints looked fresh and rested against the Lions. It isn’t just the Rodgers injury for Green Bay, though that is the one that grabs the headlines. The Packers lost several players at several positions throughout that game, with offensive linemen and defensive backs carted to the locker room. Injuries have been an issue all season long for the Pack. There probably won’t be many Brett Hundley believers this week.

Arizona vs. Los Angeles Rams (-3.5, 47.5) – The Cardinals finally looked like the Cardinals that we expected them to be coming into the season in a blowout win over Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers scored 27 points in the fourth quarter to put some cosmetic touches on the game, but it was a 24-0 game at half and a 31-6 game going into the fourth quarter. The Rams were gashed by Leonard Fournette, but still hung on for a 27-17 road win at Jacksonville. If there is any knock against sharp players, it’s that they have a hard time quitting teams that they liked coming into the season. Last week, the market went against Arizona and paid for it. Will they do the same this week?

Forgive me for burying the lede, but this game is in London at Twickenham Stadium. The Rams will stay in Jacksonville until Thursday and then fly across the pond. The Rams and Cardinals became just the second set of teams to both win the week before a London game. Based on what I could find, it looks like Arizona is leaving Wednesday for the long trip to Europe. It will be interesting to see how the market approaches this one.

Dallas (-6, 47) at San Francisco – It is interesting that the loss of Ezekiel Elliott has already been built into the line for Dallas at San Francisco and that it is still this high. Most books are offering -6 at reduced juice on the road favorite. The 49ers will go with CJ Beathard at quarterback this week, which has also been factored into the line, though the Brian Hoyer to CJ Beathard line adjustment is minimal at best. It may mean more to bettors and I think it will. This is probably a number that will go down as the week goes along.

Atlanta at New England (-3.5, 54) – The Falcons are in a primetime bounce back spot against the Patriots this week. This is a line that opened New England -4.5 and got hit immediately. Several shops are already down to -3 -125, with a couple stragglers still at -4. The Patriots have been a rough team for bettors so far. Atlanta may have fallen into a second-half look-ahead spot against the Dolphins. The early-week money has spoken and this is the biggest line move of note by a long shot.

Washington at Philadelphia (-4.5, 48.5) – This has been another notable mover. Despite extra rest from playing on Thursday Night Football last week, the Eagles are not the preferred side for sharp players. Those numbers guys are grabbing the Redskins, who couldn’t cover as double-digit chalk against the 49ers. This number has gone as low as -4 -115 at DSI and Bookmaker, but predominantly sits at 4.5 in the market. Bovada is still hanging in there at -5, so they’re expecting money to come in on the favorite, which is not a surprise given their clientele.

It should be a very interesting week in the NFL with a lot of favorites in the -3 to -6 range, which often entices movement in that dead zone between key numbers, so stay up on the latest in the betting market.

 
Posted : October 16, 2017 11:27 am
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NFL Opening Line Report
By: Patrick Everson
Covers.com

Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders (+3)

Kansas City tumbled from the ranks of the unbeaten with a sluggish Week 6 offensive performance, failing to put up touchdown until the fourth quarter. The Chiefs (5-1 SU and ATS) lost to Pittsburgh 19-13 as a 3.5-point home favorite.

Oakland welcomed the return of star quarterback Derek Carr, then promptly mirrored KC with a lackluster effort. The Raiders (2-4 SU and ATS) had just one second-half score – a fourth-quarter touchdown after which they missed the extra point. That proved critical when the Raiders, 3-point home faves, lost 17-16 on a last-second San Diego field goal.

Both teams now have a short week, playing in the Thursday nighter.

“What a change in perception between these teams from the offseason to the present,” Cooley said. “The Chiefs finally put up a dud, but that’s expected at some point, while Oakland looks like it’s already left for Vegas. But as we’ve seen in recent weeks with teams that look disoriented, expect the Raiders’ best effort Thursday night.”

Early bettors apparently think so. Although the Raiders were still 3-point home pups late Sunday night, the price to get those points was up to -125.

Atlanta Falcons at New England Patriots (-4.5)

It’s a rematch of the Super Bowl, though neither team seems to be in championship form, particularly Atlanta. The Patriots, bettors will remember, were 3-point faves in the Super Bowl against Atlanta and needed a miracle to overcome at 27-3 second half deficit to win and cover the spread.

The Falcons (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS) won their first three games, trying to put that incredible Super Bowl meltdown behind them. But they’ve now dropped the last two, including Sunday’s shocking 20-17 home loss to Miami as hefty 14-point chalk.

New England (4-2 SU, 2-4 ATS) spotted the New York Jets 14 points on Sunday, not exactly looking like a 9-point road favorite. However, the Patriots scored the next 24 points and hung on for a 24-17 victory.

“Sharps loved the Falcons in the last matchup between these teams, and they’re lining up again here,” Cooley said of early action for this Sunday night clash. “We’ve already moved the spread down to -3, but it’s doubtful we’ll see it dip under the key number. The Falcons look flat of late, but it’s not as if the Pats have been world beaters the last three weeks.”

Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5)

Heading into Week 7, Philadelphia surprisingly holds the lead in the NFC East. The Eagles (5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS) played in the first game of Week 6 and dropped Carolina 28-23 catching 3 points on the road Thursday night.

Washington (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS) blew all of a 17-0 lead Sunday, but held on late to move above .500. The Redskins edged the 49ers 26-24, falling well short as 12-point home faves.

“Early money has been on Washington, which is somewhat of a surprise,” Cooley said of the Week 7 Monday nighter. “We’ve moved down to -4 already, but it’s highly unlikely it will head further south. You have to like what both of these squads are doing on the field, but Philadelphia is a few pegs ahead of where Washington is.”

New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers (+4)

Green Bay was 4-1 SU and appeared to be rounding into form after a big road win at Dallas. Then Aaron Rodgers broke his collarbone in the first quarter Sunday against Minnesota, and poof! The Packers (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS) lost 23-10 giving 3 points on the road, and will be without their stud QB for the foreseeable future, perhaps the rest of the season.

Meanwhile, New Orleans cracked the 50-point barrier in a wild Week 6 home victory. The Saints (3-2 SU and ATS) went off as 6-point faves against Detroit, led 45-10 midway through the third quarter, then held off a furious rally for a 52-38 victory. Drew Brees and Co. have won and cashed three straight.

Cooley said Bookmaker.eu wasn’t quite ready Sunday to post a Saints-Packers line, with Green Bay now relying on unproven backup Brett Hundley.

“We’ve got to do some additional assessment with Hundley under center in Green Bay before posting a line,” Cooley said. “The public will line up to fade a team sans Aaron Rodgers, but we’ve seen this Packers bunch blow out opponents without him. We’ll open the Saints as short road chalk.”

The Wynn sportsbook in Las Vegas opened with the Saints as 4-point road favorites, while offshore sportsbook Pinnacle installed the Saints as 4.5-point chalk.

 
Posted : October 16, 2017 11:29 am
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NFL Line Watch Week 7
By Art Aronson
Covers.com

Game to bet now

Dallas at San Francisco (+6)

Call this one the National Anthem Bowl. The Cowboys, who have been ordered by owner Jerry Jones to stand for the anthem under penalty of benching (or worse), vs. the 49ers, who are the flagship franchise for protest and can stand or kneel depending on the depths of their beliefs. There will probably be a football game after said anthem, and it’s a big game for the Boys if not the out-of-it-already Niners. Dallas is 2-3 (both SU and ATS), and staring down the barrel of a nasty October/November run that includes four straight winning teams (Washington, Kansas City, Atlanta, Philadelphia) after this Sunday. It’s possible that all the hay will be in the barn by Thanksgiving, so the Cowboys really need this one to get some momentum for their most important four-game stretch of the season.

Game to wait on

New Orleans at Green Bay (+4.5)

Pro Football Talk has suggested that it might be time to institute even more protection for quarterbacks after Aaron Rodgers was lost for the year when he suffered a broken collar bone when hit a split second after throwing a pass last Sunday. Maybe, maybe not. But Rodgers might be the best QB in the world, and losing him is bad for business. The focus will now be on backup QB Brett Hundley, who has been holding a clipboard for a couple of years. Hundley threw 33 passes on Sunday and three of them wound up being intercepted, so there’s a large learning curve to scale in Green Bay. The Saints no doubt are scrambling to find tape on the kid. The line could expand based on early betting.

Total to watch

Atlanta at New England (53.5)

A week or more of warm weather is predicted in New England, and that’s good news for both offenses in this Super Bowl repeat. The Falcons will welcome any help they can get after scoring just 34 total points in back-to losses to AFC East teams (Miami, Buffalo) – and the Patriots might just be the cure for what ails them. Last Sunday vs. the Jets, New England’s defense gave up more than 300 passing yards for the sixth straight time this season. Every week fans figure that Bill Belichick will get it fixed, and every week it isn’t fixed. Matt Ryan is no doubt watching video of the Patriots today and liking what he sees. Even with the high number, the over might be worth a long, hard look.

 
Posted : October 16, 2017 3:54 pm
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Opening Line Report - Week 7
By Marcus DiNitto
VegasInsider.com

The NFL’s Week 7 card is highlighted by a Super Bowl rematch between the Atlanta Falcons and New England Patriots, although neither team is in the form it was in last winter.

New England is 4-2, but its seven-point road win (24-17) over the Jets didn’t impress anybody, least of whom bettors who laid -9. The Pats have covered just two games so far this season.

The Falcons on Sunday dropped their second straight home game, blowing a 17-0 lead to the Dolphins by giving up 20 second-half points. That’s not a good look against a team that had scored just two offensive touchdowns through its first four games.

Atlanta has taken most of the early betting action on next Sunday night’s affair. New England opened -4 at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook and -5 at the Wynn on Sunday night, but money on the underdog drove the line to -3.5 at most shops by Monday.

“We tried to shade it up a little bit just because it’s Sunday night,” said Westgate manager Ed Salmons, anticipating liability on the favorite to cap Sunday’s action. “But honestly, watching the Patriots play, they stink this year. There’s nothing to like about the Patriots, other than they have (Tom) Brady and they get the benefit of the doubt on every close call.”

While bettors don’t often get the opportunity to lay such a small number with the Pats at home, John Avello, sports book director at the Wynn, said the line “doesn’t feel light with the Patriots are playing. Offensively they still get the job done when needed. They’re just not complete right now. Will they be complete at the end of the year? Maybe. But football’s about matchups, and I don’t know how New England is going to stop the Falcons.”

While Avello envisions the Pats also being able to move the ball, the opening total of 54.5 is a field goal lower than it was for Super Bowl 51.

The Patriots’ winning touchdown in overtime put that game ‘over’ that total, but as Salmons pointed out, “The Super Bowl was really a dead ‘under’ pace. It just got crazy at the end.”

Here’s the rest of the Week 7 slate.

Thursday, Oct. 16

Kansas City Chiefs (-3 even, 47) at Oakland Raiders

Most of the 2.5s on this game have been snapped up by chalk players, as Kansas City visits a division rival that’s lost four straight.

“There’s no playmakers on offense,” Salmons said of the Raiders. “They have no speed whatsoever. Every pass is a two-yard pass. I’m not sure if that’s an offensive philosophy that they changed this year or what, but it’s alarming. That’s a team that scored a lot of points last year.”

When Oakland scored just 17 in a loss at home to Baltimore two weeks ago, the blame was put on quarterabck Derek Carr’s absence, but he played in Sunday’s 17-16 home loss to the Chargers and they scored two touchdowns.

“There’s something going on with that offense,” Salmons said.

Sunday, Oct. 22

Tennessee Titans (-6.5, 46) at Cleveland Browns

The line remain unchanged from its opener through Monday, as handicappers waited for Marcus Mariota’s return from a hamstring injury Monday night against the Colts.

Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.5, 40.5) at Indianapolis Colts

While the line was adjusted up a half point from the opener of Jacksonville -3 in early wagering at CG Technology and the Wynn, the numbers indicate the betting market is not anticipating Andrew Luck’s return this week.

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6, 41)

There are hints of interest in the 'dog in this ACF North showdown, as the line has been adjusted from 6 to 5.5 at multiple books.

Baltimore Ravens at Minnesota Vikings (-5, 39.5)

While the line was driven up from Minnesota -4.5 to -5.5 at the Westgate, it sits at that lower number at some books as of this Monday afternoon writing.

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-3/120, 38.5)

The spread sitting a shade over a field goal suggests these teams are pretty evenly rated by the betting market, something that would have surprised most handicappers before the season, when the Jets’ rating was historically low.

Are these AFC East foes, in fact, even?

“I think Miami is better, but Miami can’t score, that’s their problem,” Avello said.

The Dolphins have a 3-2 record, but according to Salmons, “Miami could easily be 0-5. I don’t understand how they’re winning games. Their defense is fairly decent ,but the offense is just horrible.”

The total, meanwhile, is the lowest on next week’s card.

“These are two teams that don’t have much offense but have scrappy defenses,” Salmons said.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Buffalo Bills

No line on this game, as bookmakers await news on Jameis Winston.

Carolina Panthers (-3.5, 41) at Chicago Bears

There’s been early money on the home underdog, with Carolina -4 getting bet down to -3 (-125) at William Hill, and -3.5 inching down to -3 (-120) at the Westgate.

New Orleans Saints (-6.5, 47.5) at Green Bay Packers

This line has skyrocketed at the Westgate from its opener of New Orleans -3.5. In fact, Saints -6.5 represents a complete flip from Green Bay -6.5 the Westgate offered on its look-ahead lines a week ago. This is what happens when you go from Aaron Rodgers to Brett Hundley.

“I don’t know what the Packers are going to do with this kid Hundley,” Avello said. “Sometimes you throw a guy in an a desperation spot and he’ll do well, and he did do okay (in Sunday’s loss to Minnesota), but now you’re preparing him – I don’t know how you prepare him. He’s not ready to play NFL football. The Packers really gotta go out and get somebody.”

As for the Saints’ defensive revival, the opinions of our bookmakers differ drastically.

“I was high on the Saints defense to start the year,” Salmons said. “I was telling everyone here, ‘You’re going to be surprised to see how good the Saints defense is this year.’ Then the first two games they go out and give up a ton of points and I look like an idiot. But they’ve turned it around, and I’m not surprised.”

Avello,though, remains skeptical of the New Orleans D, despite three straight excellent performances.

“Defensively, they scare you a little bit because you know they’re never going to hold onto a lead,” he said. “I don’t consider them a very good defense. ”

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (-3.5, 47.5)

Early bettors laid the field goal with the Rams, prompting bookmakers to add to the hook. This despite the Cardinals waking from their offensive slumber Sunday against the Bucs.

“Adrian Peterson seemed to give them life,” Avello said. “Maybe he was their missing piece or a spark...The offense showed signs of being what people expected of them.”

Avello, on the other hand, wasn’t as crazy about the Arizona defense, which nearly blew a 31-0 lead to a Bucs team led by Ryan Fitzpatrick in relief of the injured Winston.

Dallas Cowboys (-6, 47) at San Francisco 49ers

Dallas was adjusted from -4.5 to -6 in early wagering at the Westgate, with -6.5s getting bet down to -6s at other shops. Don’t be surprised, though, if late money pushes this number north.

“The public’s going to bet Dallas because it’s in the so-called ‘must-win’ territory,” Salmons said of the 2-3 Cowboys.

Seattle Seahawks (-6, 38.5) at New York Giants

The Westgate hung Seattle -7.5 on Sunday night, but after the Giants’ 23-10 win in Denver, the book reopened -6 on Monday morning.

“The Giants showed me a lot (Sunday) night,” Salmons said. “They definitely have the will to compete.”

He added, “I thought they had a chance to go into that game (at the Broncos) and get beaten badly. They’re offensive line has been dreadful, they can’t run the ball, Eli (Manning) was getting sacked, and other than Engram, he has no one to throw the ball to. But they actually ran the ball, and the offensive line played by far their best game of the year.”

Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5, 42)

Here’s another game the Westgate adjusted after Sunday night’s surprise. The Broncos were posted -2.5 before their loss to the Giants, and reopened +1.5 on Monday.

Monday, Oct. 23

Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles (-5, 48.5)

This game has been dealt as low as -4 and as high as -6.5, the line settling at -5 at most shops Monday.

 
Posted : October 16, 2017 6:25 pm
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