Canadian Bacon: Week 18 CFL Odds and Picks
By Charles-André Marchand
Covers.com
Toronto Argonauts at Winnipeg Blue Bombers (-8, 48)
The Blue Bombers have now taken full control of their destiny with a comeback victory last week against the Montreal Alouettes that gave them sole possession of first place in the East with two games to play. If Winnipeg wins this week against Toronto and the Alouettes lose, the Blue Bombers will secure first place and host the East final.
The Bombers can’t afford to stumble against the Argos at home in front of another sell-out crowd at Canad Inns Stadium for their last regular season game in Winnipeg. Head coach Paul LaPolice warned his players not to take this game lightly since these Argos did pull an upset against the Bombers last month and did the same two weeks ago against the Calgary Stampeders.
After taking over Cleo Lemon’s job as starting QB, Steven Jyles has completed only 56 percent of his passes and has twice as many interceptions (10) than touchdowns. The Argonauts have lost their last seven games on the road, while the Blue Bombers won only three of their last eight games.
Pick: Winnipeg
Hamilton Tiger-Cats at Saskatchewan Roughriders (+6.5, 50)
The Tiger-Cats played like a Grey Cup contender last week in a 42-10 mauling of the B.C. Lions, ending the Lions’ eight-game winning streak. The quarterback duo of Kevin Glenn and Quinton Porter seems to be working as they both had 116 passing yards last week. Hamilton hasn’t said who will start against Saskatchewan, but both will likely see some action.
Meanwhile, wideout Chris Williams was back at practice this week and could play, but the Tiger-Cats will be without LB Jamall Johnson and CB Woodny Turenne.
The Roughriders are just looking to end the season on a positive note. Darian Durant and Andy Fantuz are both out for the rest of the season.
Pick: Hamilton
Edmonton Eskimos at B.C. Lions (-4.5, 49)
If you’re only watching one game this weekend, make sure it’s this one. The Eskimos are on top in the West and a win would secure first place and a bye week before hosting the division final. The Lions could derail that plan and prolong the debate for another week with a win.
As mentioned, B.C. saw its winning streak snapped last week and also suffered a number of injury casualties – including Akeem Foster.They brought back veteran receiver Ryan Thelwell and acquired LB Neil McKinlay.
Travis Lulay has led Edmonton to three straight wins and sits second in most QB statistics next to Montreal’s Anthony Calvillo. But don’t forget who is in third place in most of those categories: Edmonton’s Ricky Ray.
Pick: B.C.
Calgary Stampeders at Montreal Alouettes (-4.5, 56)
The Alouettes’ unity is being questioned. Running back Brandon Whittaker leads the CFL but feels he could get more touches. Wideout Kerry Watkins has been dropping too many balls and is still complaining the offense is too focused on slotbacks Jamal Richardson and S.J. Green.
The Alouettes spoiled a golden opportunity to secure first place in the east by collapsing in the fourth quarter against Winnipeg last week and now coach Marc Trestman is being scrutinized by some of his players.
The Stampeders, who stand third in the West, must win to keep hopes of hosting a playoff game in November. Drew Tate, who has been taking over a struggling Henry Burris at pivot, should be able to exploit the weaknesses of the Alouettes secondary especially with the return of Ken-Yon Rambo (Achilles).
Pick: Calgary
CFL Betting Notes - Week 18
By David Schwab
VegasInsider.com
The clock is ticking on the CFL 2011 regular season. All six playoff teams have just two weeks left to try and position themselves for the upcoming postseason as the top seeds in both divisions still remain up for grabs.
Looking back at last week’s action, Edmonton did itself a favor with a 31-24 victory over Toronto last Friday as a four-point road favorite to grab the lead in the West Division by a game. In Friday’s other matchup, Calgary kept pace in the West with a 25-13 win over Saskatchewan as a 10-point home favorite. Saturday’s action kicked-off with Winnipeg squeezing-out a one-point 26-25 victory over Montreal as a one-point home underdog to tie things up with the Alouettes atop the East Division. Later that night, Hamilton rolled all over British Columbia 42-10 as a 1½-point home underdog; to not only snap the Lions’ eight-game winning streak, but to even its own record at .500 on the year.
The following is brief preview of this week’s games along with the opening point spread and ‘over/under’ lines as provided by TheGreek.com.
Friday, Oct. 28
Toronto Argonauts vs. Winnipeg Blue Bombers (8½) Over/Under (49)
Toronto is 4-12 straight-up (7-9 against the spread) on the year and reduced to playing the role of spoiler over the next two weeks. It is 1-7 SU (4-4 ATS) on the road this season and the total has gone ‘over’ in three of its last five games. Winnipeg is 10-6 SU (11-5 ATS) overall and 5-3 SU (6-2 ATS) at home. The total has stayed ‘under’ in its last three games.
The Argonauts lost the first two games to the Blue Bombers this season both SU and ATS, but beat them 25-24 in Week 13 as three-point home underdogs. Toronto is now 4-2 both SU and ATS in the last six meetings and the total has stayed ‘under’ in three of the last five games. The Argonauts are ranked second to last in scoring and last in points allowed.
Saturday, Oct. 29
Hamilton Tiger Cats (-5) vs. Saskatchewan Roughriders Over/Under (50½)
Hamilton evened its record at 8-8 SU (9-7 ATS) with last week’s win. It is 2-5 SU in seven road games but 4-3 ATS. The total has stayed ‘under’ the total in its last four games. Saskatchewan’s loss to Calgary dropped it to 4-12 SU (4-11 ATS) on the year. It is 2-6 SU (2-5 ATS) at home this season and the total has stayed ‘under’ in seven of its last eight games.
The Tiger Cats beat the Roughriders in Week 2 of the season 33-3 as two-point home favorites. It was just their second SU win in the last 10 meetings, but they are now 3-3 ATS in the last six games. The total has gone ‘over’ in five of the last seven games. One injury note; Roughrider quarterback Darian Durant remains questionable for this game with a head injury.
Edmonton Eskimos vs. British Columbia Lions (-4½) Over/Under (50)
In a worst-to-first story in the making, Edmonton is 10-6 SU (9-7 ATS) and can clinch the West Division title with a win this week coupled with a loss by Calgary. It is 5-3 SU and ATS on the road this year and the total has gone ‘over’ in four of its last six games. BC’s first loss in nine weeks dropped it to 9-7 SU (8-7 ATS). It is 4-3 SU (3-4 ATS) in seven home games and the total has stayed ‘under’ in seven of its last nine games overall.
The Eskimos are 1-2 SU and ATS against the Lions this season including a 33-24 loss as six-point road underdogs the last time they met. Edmonton has a slight 4-3 edge ATS in the last seven meetings and the total has gone ‘over’ in four of the games. The Eskimos and Lions are ranked one and two in the league in points allowed this season with each giving-up less than 23 points a game.
Sunday, Oct. 30
Calgary Stampeders vs. Montreal Alouettes (-5) Over/Under (56)
Calgary is currently 9-7 both SU and ATS overall. It is also 5-2 both SU and ATS on the road this year. The total has gone ‘over’ in three of its last five games. Montreal 10-6 SU (6-10 ATS) and on the wrong end of a head-to-head tie breaker with Winnipeg for the East Division crown. It is 6-2 SU at home this year but just 3-5 ATS. The total has stayed ‘under’ in its last three games.
The Stampeders beat the Alouettes 38-31 earlier in the season as one-point home favorites. This evened the series at 5-5 both SU and ATS over the last 10 games. The total has gone ‘over’ in six of the 10 meetings. Montreal leads the CFL in scoring with 30.4 points a game while Calgary is ranked third with an average of 28.1 points a game.
CFL Week 18
Toronto (4-12) @ Winnipeg (10-6) - Big win for Winnipeg last week vs Montreal. edging Alouettes, tying them for top spot in East- they're 2-2 as home favorite; this is first time they've been favored in last five tilts. Toronto is 4-4 as road dogs, with last three road losses all by 10+ pts. Bombers won two of three games against Toronto this season, winning 22-16 (-2) here in Week 2, 33-24 (+3) two weeks later in Toronto, then losing 25-24 (-3.5) five weeks ago.
Hamilton (9-7) @ Saskatchewan (4-12) - Roughriders are in tank, losing last five games (0-5 vs spread) by average score of 31-8; they got waxed 33-3 (+2) at Hamilton way back in Week 3. Riders are 2-6 at home this year, losing last two home games 42-5/29-18. Hamilton lost four of last five road games- they're 2-3 as a favorite this season, 1-0 as a road fave. Under is 12-2 in Roughriders' last 14 games, 4-0 in Hamilton's last four. Saskatchewan is 3-10 vs spread as an underdog.
Edmonton (10-6) @ BC Lions (9-7) - Lions won two of three this year vs Eskimos, losing 33-17 (+2.5) on road in Week 3, then winning 36-1 in Week 8, game that started Lions on their hot streak. Eskimos lost 33-24 (+5.5) four weeks ago in previous visit here. BC had 8-game win streak snapped last week; they're 3-4 as home favorite, but did win last three at home, by 22-9-2 points. Under is 9-3 in Lions' last 12 games. Edmonton won three of last four road games; they're 4-2 as a road underdog.
Calgary (9-7) @ Montreal (10-6) - Alouettes (+1) lost 38-31 at Calgary in Week 8; they've won four of last five games but failed to cover four in a row- they're 2-5 in last seven as a favorite. Stampeders lost last three on road, by 19-2-2 points, after winning first five road games this year. Weird that Calgary is 9-7 but has only been an underdog twice this year, and both of those games were decided by two points. Five of last seven Montreal games stayed under total.
TORONTO (4 - 12) at WINNIPEG (10 - 6)
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 10-21 ATS (-13.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
WINNIPEG is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent over the last 3 seasons.
WINNIPEG is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 5-4 against the spread versus WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 5-4 straight up against WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
HAMILTON (8 - 8) at SASKATCHEWAN (4 - 12)
Top Trends for this game.
SASKATCHEWAN is 61-40 ATS (+17.0 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 88-61 ATS (+20.9 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent since 1996.
HAMILTON is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in October games over the last 3 seasons.
SASKATCHEWAN is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in all games this season.
SASKATCHEWAN is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in all lined games this season.
SASKATCHEWAN is 3-10 ATS (-8.0 Units) as an underdog this season.
SASKATCHEWAN is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) off a division game this season.
SASKATCHEWAN is 4-11 ATS (-8.1 Units) in games played on turf this season.
SASKATCHEWAN is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in October games over the last 2 seasons.
SASKATCHEWAN is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) off a loss against a division rival this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
SASKATCHEWAN is 3-2 against the spread versus HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
SASKATCHEWAN is 3-2 straight up against HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
EDMONTON (10 - 6) at BRITISH COLUMBIA (9 - 7)
Top Trends for this game.
EDMONTON is 12-26 ATS (-16.6 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1996.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 68-94 ATS (-35.4 Units) as a favorite since 1996.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 29-48 ATS (-23.8 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 5-4 against the spread versus EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 5-4 straight up against EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
6 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
CALGARY (9 - 7) at MONTREAL (10 - 6)
Top Trends for this game.
MONTREAL is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) off a loss against a division rival over the last 2 seasons.
MONTREAL is 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) in home games in October games since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
MONTREAL is 3-2 against the spread versus CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
MONTREAL is 3-2 straight up against CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO vs. WINNIPEG
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Toronto's last 13 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Toronto's last 10 games when playing on the road against Winnipeg
Winnipeg is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Winnipeg's last 20 games
HAMILTON vs. SASKATCHEWAN
Hamilton is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 games when playing Saskatchewan
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Hamilton's last 11 games when playing Saskatchewan
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Saskatchewan's last 6 games at home
Saskatchewan is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games at home
EDMONTON vs. BRITISH COLUMBIA
Edmonton is 6-12 SU in its last 18 games when playing British Columbia
Edmonton is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against British Columbia
British Columbia is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Edmonton
British Columbia is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Edmonton
CALGARY vs. MONTREAL
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Calgary's last 5 games when playing on the road against Montreal
Calgary is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Montreal
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Montreal's last 5 games when playing at home against Calgary
Montreal is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games when playing at home against Calgary