Free Picks for Sunday, October 15th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
Jack Jones
Packers vs. Vikings
Play: Vikings +3
This line indicates that the Packers would be favored by roughly 6 points against the Minnesota Vikings on a neutral field. There's no way the Packers are 6 points better than the Vikings, so the value is on the home underdog here catching a field goal Sunday.
And this is a huge statement game for the Vikings. They are 3-2 on the season while the Packers are 4-1, so they cannot afford a loss if they are serious about winning the division. They would essentially fall three games behind the Packers because of the tiebreaker with a loss. So you can bet that they will be putting their best foot forward here Sunday.
The Packers are the flavor of the week right now after Aaron Rodgers' heroics in Dallas last week. But now he's up against a real defense in the Vikings, and the best defense he has faced all season. After all, the Vikings held this high-powered Packers offense to just 14 points in a home win last season.
Minnesota comes in giving up just 18.6 points and 309 yards per game. And the offense has been pretty good under Case Keenum, especially last week against the Bears. Once Keenum replaced an injured Sam Bradford, the Vikings took off on offense. The Vikings scored 17 points in the second half to win the game. Keenum finished 17-of-21 passing for 140 yards and a touchdown against a good Bears defense that had shut down both Atlanta and Pittsburgh at home earlier this season.
The Vikings have one of the more underrated home-field advantages in the NFL, especially in their new stadium. The Vikings are 24-8 ATS in their last 32 home games, including a sensational 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The home team is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings.
The Packers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. Minnesota is 6-0 ATS off a win over a division opponent over the last three seasons. I think it's Minnesota that plays with a sense of urgency here, while Green Bay could have a letdown off its big win at Dallas last week.
Art Aronson
Browns vs. Texans
Play: Browns +10
Cleveland is 0-5 and is most likely the worst team in the league. Houston has shown promise with DeShaun Watson under center, but the team took a major hit on the defensive side of the ball in last week’s heart-breaking loss at Kansas City, losing all pro defensive star JJ Watt for the rest of the season to injury. With their bye occuring next weekend before a game at Seattle, it’s also not too hard to imagine the home side looking past their lowly visitor today. DeShone Kizer is no DeShaun Watson, but note that Cleveland is 3-1 ATS in its last four after allowing 17 points or less in its previous contest. Looks like a few too many points, consider the Browns in this one.
Strike Point Sports
Chicago at Baltimore
Play: Over 39.5
For the Bears on Sunday it is Turbisky Time! Mitch Turbisky took over for Chicago on Monday Night Football last week and the Bears offense looked much better with him at the helm than Mike Glennon. I think that Turbisky's big arm is going to lead to a lot of points for both teams in this one. I see the Bears throwing the ball down the field more, and I think that they will top 20 points in regulation for the first time this season. But I also think Turbisky will turn the ball over against this tough Ravens defense, and that should set Baltimore up for another solid offensive day. The Ravens scored 30 points last week at Oakland. I think that could carry over here against a Bears defense that had some key players leave with injuries in the MNF game. All of the trends are pointing toward the 'under' in this one. But this total is too low, and I think the Ravens will take this one 27-20.
Allen Eastman
Jacksonville (-2.5) over Los Angeles Rams
I think that Jacksonville is going to build on its win last week at Pittsburgh. The Jaguars are back at home. This is their first home game in four weeks. And I think that they will have a home-field advantage in this one as the fans get behind this team and its winning record. The Rams have to fly all the way across the country for this one. It is not an early start, but the Rams still have to travel one week after losing their big game against Seattle. The Rams are just 1-3 ATS in their last four games and 2-5 ATS in their last seven. Los Angeles is just 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games and 1-7 ATS after a loss. This team is overvalued. I think that the Jaguars are underrated, and they are 4-2 ATS in their last five games, with one of the losses coming in OT. The Jaguars are 4-0 ATS in their last four games against a team that is above .500. Jacksonville will get the job done.
Dr Bob
New England Patriots @ New York Jets
The Jets have certainly been better than expected this season but they were fortunate to beat Cleveland last week as they were outgained by nearly 2 yards per play. New York’s offense has been mediocre and the Jets defense isn’t as good as they appear to be. New York ranks 10th in my numbers using just 2017 unadjusted data, but they’ve yet to face an offense in the top half of the league. That will change today, as the Jets’ defense will face its first real test.
Despite scoring less than 20 points, New England’s offense gained an impressive 6.1 yppl against the Buccaneers last week and the Patriots offense ranks 3rd in my numbers – trailing only Kansas City and Atlanta. On the other hand, the Patriots defense ranks last and they’ve been particularly vulnerable against the pass. However, the Pats’ have basically the same level of talent as the defense that ranked 5th defending the pass last year and I expect that unit to improve going forward.
Using this year’s stats only would certainly favor the Jets here but my predictive numbers suggest passing on this game.
Miami Dolphins @ Atlanta Falcons
Lean – ATLANTA (-11.5) over Miami
Miami beat Tennessee last week in an ugly game featuring a pair of terrible offenses that combined to average only 3.1 yppl. The Dolphins offense ranks last in the league in my metrics, mostly because Jay Cutler hasn’t been able to get the passing game going. Cutler is averaging only 4.4 yppp, which is nearly 2 yards per pass play worse than his career average. That number should rise over the course of the season but Atlanta has the 4th ranked pass defense in my numbers and I expect Miami’s offensive struggles to continue in this game.
The Falcons probably should’ve been undefeated going into their bye last week. In week 4, Atlanta outgained the Bills 5.4 yppl to 4.8 yppl yet lost due to a -3 turnover margin, one of which was a controversial strip-sack returned for a touchdown. The Falcons are the only team in the league outgaining their opponents by more than 1 yard per play and they rank first overall in my ratings based on this season’s games only. The Dolphins defense has been fortunate to hold opponents to a less than 30% conversion rate on third down, which I don’t expect that to continue against Atlanta’s high powered offense in this game.
Overall, the number on this game is fair, as my ratings favor Atlanta by 11.4 points, but the Falcons apply to a 105-46-2 ATS off a bye week angle that has me leaning their way.
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings
Lean – MINNESOTA (+3) over Green Bay Packers
Despite the injury to Sam Bradford, that has kept him out of 3 ½ games thus far, the Vikings +0.9 net yards per play ranks second in the league with the offense averaging a surprising 5.7 yppl (9th) to go along with the predictably strong defensive numbers. The Vikings quarterback for this game hasn’t been announced yet, but whoever starts will have a good matchup against a Packers defense rated 28th in my metrics.
Minnesota’s defense ranks 11th in yards per play, but their 3rd down luck is likely to catch up with them. The Vikings held the Bears to 3 for 12 on 3rd down last week maintaining their league-best opponent 3rd down conversion rate – they’ve held opponents to just 25% on 3rd downs, which I don’t expect to continue moving forward. In fact, no team last season held opponents to under a 30% 3rd down conversion rate for the full season. That doesn’t mean that the Vikings won’t continue to be good defensively, but rather that they’re likely to give up a few more points per game as their 3rd down defense regresses to expectations.
Despite scoring more than 27 points per game, the Packers offense is gaining just 5.3 yppl. Aaron Rodgers has been held to 5.9 yppp – a full yard per play less than his career average of 6.9 yppp. Rodgers is still a very accurate thrower of the football but he’s had less time to look downfield for big plays and has been sacked third most in the league. The Vikings talented defensive line is looking for a breakout game, as they’ve been pretty mediocre in getting to the quarterback thus far, and this could be the game to boost their stats.
The Packers are a probably a better team than the Vikings moving forward, but not enough to justify laying a field goal on the road. I’ll lean with Minnesota +3 or better in this one.
Chicago Bears @ Baltimore Ravens
Chicago should’ve beaten Minnesota on Monday night – the Bears outgained the Vikings in yards per play but Chicago’s two turnovers set Minnesota’s offense up with very short fields, including the last-minute game-winning field goal. Thus far, the Bears defense is actually producing fewer takeaways per game than their worst in the league (0.7/game) number last season. I have the Bears defensive quality rated around average and I expect their defense to produce more turnovers moving forward.
Rookie quarterback Mitch Trubisky had his moments but overall his numbers were underwhelming – albeit against a good defense. Trubisky may struggle again versus a Baltimore defense that ranks 8th against the pass but I expect the Bears to use their 3rd ranked running game to attack a soft Ravens’ defensive front that is 7th worst defending the run according to my metrics. Chicago is better than they appear, as the Bears’ league worst -9 turnover margin has greatly affected their scoring margin. However, the line on this game looks fair and I have no opinion.
San Francisco 49ers @ Washington Redskins
Both of these teams are better than their records, as the Redskins are solidly above average on both sides of the ball in my metrics despite being just 2-2 while the Niners’ 0-5 record includes a 3-point loss, a 2-point loss, and two overtime losses in the last 4 weeks.
Washington’s offense ranks 3rd in my metrics and have been unlucky to only score touchdowns on 36% of their Redzone opportunities and I expect an offense of this quality to be better in the Redzone moving forward. The offense is led by Kirk Cousins, quietly having the best season of his career with 7.3 yards per pass play and only 1 interception in 121 attempts.
The Niners’ Brian Hoyer had a good game last week with 7.0 yppp, but he has been inconsistent this season and has a tough matchup in this one going against a Redskins defense playing excellent at home – Washington has held their opponents to 4.4 yppl at FedEx Field. I’ll pass on this game.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Arizona Cardinals
Lean – ARIZONA (+1.5) over Tampa Bay
The Cardinals played poorly across the board last week, but particularly in pass defense – Arizona allowed 9.6 yppp to Philadelphia. However, the Cardinals defense is still top 10 in my metrics and have been unfortunate to allow opponents to score touchdowns on 60% of Redzone opportunities, which is far too high for a unit that good overall.
Arizona signed Adrian Peterson attempting to improve their last rated rushing offense. I don’t think Peterson has much left in the tank and he’ll likely struggle against a Buccaneers defense ranked 5th at stopping the run in my numbers. Still, the threat of Peterson could help Carson Palmer get back on track and improve on a passing offense currently ranks 29th. Thankfully, Palmer has a favorable matchup this week against Tampa Bay’s 29th ranked pass defense.
My ratings like Arizona in this game, as they are better than their 2-3 record and it appears as if their dreadful 0-5 ATS record has supplied some line value. That’s pretty common for teams that are winless against the spread at this point of the season. In fact, in the last 25 years teams that are winless against the spread after 4 or more games are 45-19-2 ATS as an underdog or pick. That angle didn’t work for the Cardinals last week at Philly (although it did work for the Chargers), but there is value on their side and I’ll lean with the Cardinals plus the points.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City’s offense has been special so far this season but the Chiefss defense has surrendered 6.8 yards per play the last two weeks and now rank 20th in my season ratings heading into a game against a Pittsburgh attack that is due to bounce-back after a horrendous performance in last week’s 9-30 upset loss to the Jags. The Steelers play calling was puzzling last week, as offensive coordinator Todd Haley called 57 pass plays and only gave Le’Veon Bell 15 carries against a Jaguars defense ranked 3rd against the pass and last against the run in my metrics. The Kansas City defense pass/run splits aren’t as drastic, but the Chiefs are allowing the 6th most yards per rush to opponents this season and since losing Eric Berry, one of the league’s best run-stopping safeties, to a season-ending Achilles injury the Chiefs’ defense has allowed 5.1 yards per carry. I would be surprised if we don’t see more Le’Veon Bell this week.
The Steelers apply to a 132-50-8 ATS situation that is based on last week’s upset loss so I do expect them to come to play today. However, I also have an indicator that favors Kansas City in this game so I’ll just sit back and watch.
Randall The Handle
BEST BETS
Buccaneers (2-2) at Cardinals (2-3)
It doesn’t matter than the Cardinals are a home dog. All that means is that we can spot a small price with visiting the Bucs. This Arizona team is a mere shell of the contender from a couple of years ago. The loss of RB David Johnson has been immeasurable. The Cards made a desperation move this week by acquiring 32-year-old Adrian Peterson after a disgruntled stay in New Orleans. Good luck with that. Defences have been able to zone in on Arizona’s passing game and that stifled unit has only been able to produce 16.2 points per game as a result. Such a puny output ranks slightly higher than only the Bears, Browns and Dolphins. Arizona’s two wins have both come in overtime against the Colts and 49ers respectively, two clubs that are a combined 2-8 with Indy’s wins being against equally inept San Francisco and Cleveland. Losses to the Lions, Cowboys and Eagles were all by double-digits. Tampa is well rested after facing the Patriots 10 days ago and the solid defensive unit that held Tom Brady to less than 20 points should have an easy time controlling this lame opponent. TAKING: BUCCANEERS -2
Steelers (3-2) at Chiefs (5-0)
It’s rare for everyone to be down on the Steelers, but some lackadaisical efforts combined with Ben Roethlisberger’s discouraging comments finds Pittsburgh folk in a funk. Disheartened, demoralized and depressed after being humiliated by Blake Bortles and the Jaguars, of all teams, the Steelers will take on the league’s best team. This is typically where the NFL makes you nuts. The Chiefs have been on fire since the start of the season and are supposed to roll over this troubled visitor. But we don’t see it happening. Pittsburgh finds itself in a desirable role as the underdog for the first time this year. It marks only the second time since the start of last season where Mike Tomlin’s team is being offered points during regular season. The only other occasion was when visiting New England. This sets up for a good bounce-back spot. As usual, Ben is whining after a lopsided loss, but that’s usually when he is best as Steelers are 7-1 vs. spread after losing by 20+ points in the Big Ben era. Nothing against Chiefs, but Pittsburgh provides the value. TAKING: STEELERS +4
Giants (0-5) at Broncos (3-1)
Hurricanes, earthquakes and the Giants. It has been an awful year for disasters. The Giants remain winless and, to add insult to injury, their infirmary has more people in it than a Chargers home game. New York’s biggest star was lost for the season after Odell Beckham broke an ankle last week. In fact, you won’t recognize many G-men receivers as both Brandon Marshall and Sterling Shepard are also sidelined. Troubled when they had the currently wounded players in their lineup, the Giants will now have to face Denver’s rock-ribbed defence without them. And it’s not like New York can turn to its ground game, a unit that is averaging 77.8 yards per game (30th ranked) while the Broncos run defenders are nearly impossible to penetrate after giving up just 210 yards on the ground all season! We don’t have to get cute here. There simply does not appear a way the Giants can score with current roster. The Broncos are strong and they are rested. They are also 14-6-1 against the spread (ATS) in past 21 following a bye week. TAKING: BRONCOS -11½
THE REST
Browns (0-5) at Texans (2-3)
The Browns are plagued by bad coaching, bad drafting, bad management and bad players. Coach Hue Jackson has one win in 21 tries as Cleveland’s head man. But wait! There’s a quarterback change. Kevin Hogan will be featured in the latest instalment of ‘How the Quarterback Carousel Turns.’ Poor Kevin. He’ll have to go into Houston in his first NFL start and face an angry Texans bunch that allowed an uncharacteristic 42 points to be scored upon them last week. Perhaps the most interesting storyline of this game will have No. 1 draft pick Myles Garrett chasing after dynamic QB Deshaun Watson (chosen 12th), but that still won’t be enough to point us to the prohibitive dog here. It’s a tall order for rookie Watson, but after scoring 91 points over the past two games, Houston should get the job done. TAKING: TEXANS -9½
Patriots (3-2) at Jets (3-2)
The unwritten rule is to never spot big road points, especially in a divisional game. But as the saying goes, rules are meant to be broken and we’re going to break one here. Miraculously, the Jets are on a three-game winning streak, placing them in a tie for first place in the AFC East along with the Bills and these Patriots. Unfortunately, the Jets may not win another game this season. This current streak has been accomplished with smoke and mirrors. Teams on such streaks do not rank 26th in the NFL on offence and 25th on defence. Jets had no right beating the inept Browns (194 passing yards, 34 rushing yards) last week but for Cleveland miscues. Patriots have had 10 days to continue fixing defensive issues. They swept Jets last year by a combined 63-20. Expect same sort of domination here. TAKING: PATRIOTS -9½
Dolphins (2-2) at Falcons (3-1)
The Falcons’ 3-1 mark looks better than they do. One-score wins at Chicago and Detroit ended inside Atlanta’s five-yard line and could easily have had different results. The one blemish saw the Falcons lose at home to Buffalo when Atlanta’s luck finally ran out two weeks ago. Point being, the team many feared heading into this season after Atlanta came so close to a Super Bowl win has been less than advertised and it hardly warrants a double-digit give here despite facing a struggling opponent. Miami has been horrendous offensively (averaging just 10 points per game) but such a ridiculous output can’t last forever. The host has been sloppy this season and it could open up some opportunities for much-maligned QB Jay Cutler to escape current funk. The Falcons are also wallet-drainers as hosts with just five covers in past 14 on home turf. Conversely, the Fish are 5-2 ATS in their past seven as guests. TAKING: DOLPHINS +11½
Lions (3-2) at Saints (2-2)
Lions may have been living a charmed life after three wins against some questionable opponents. We didn’t know how bad the Cardinals were when Detroit thumped them in opener. Their other wins were against 0-5 Giants and Vikings with Case Keenum under centre. Such a resume lacks a little lustre. The Leos will head to New Orleans, where they’ve won games the past two season, making this three in a row for the Michigan team. But we think it’s time the tables turn. While we’re still cautious, the Saints appear to finally be playing some defence after holding previous two opponents to a combined 13 points including the suddenly high-flying Panthers. And it’s not as though Detroit’s offence is anything to fear. Somewhat unnoticed, the Lions own the fourth-lowest yards per game average. The Saints are home for only second time after hosting Patriots a month ago. TAKING: SAINTS -4½
Packers (4-1) at Vikings (3-2)
An arduous task awaits the Packers here as they are fresh off an exhausting road win in Dallas and now must spot some road points to a good defensive divisional opponent. Of course, the biggest disparity in this contest is at quarterback where all-world Aaron Rodgers simply lays over what will in all likelihood be Keenum. However, we have enough confidence in the Minny’s stop unit to keep this one close. Keenum may also have moderate success against Green Bay’s suspect defenders, a group that has allowed an average of 26 points against in past four. Vikes play some of their best ball against this rival, winning here last year while taking two of past three in series. It should be noted that the Packers are 0-3 on back end of a two-game trip after winning the opener with Rodgers throwing for just 194 yards per game on average TAKING: VIKINGS +3
Bears (1-4) at Ravens (3-2)
This may seem like a lot of points to give away with offensively challenged Ravens, but the Bears have issues of their own, especially away from Soldier Field. Chicago has dropped two road games this year in as many tries, being outscored 64-21 combined in the pair of defeats. Bears have been road kill for most of their hosts as they have managed just two covers in past 10 away. Now they’ll have to contend with Baltimore’s stellar defensive unit while under the guidance of rookie QB Mitch Trubisky. The young pivot was featured in Monday clash for all the world to see, but while he brought enthusiasm to the position, he was less than impressive after throwing for just 128 yards, one interception and a fluke touchdown. Ravens back home, where they’ve covered five of the past seven, after a big win in Oakland. Host gets the nod. TAKING: RAVENS -6½
49ers (0-5) at Redskins (2-2)
Are the Redskins the best team that no one is really talking about? They very well could be and, if so, they should have little trouble disposing of the 49ers despite San Fran’s spirited efforts. We catch the Niners in a vulnerable spot as this will be their third consecutive road game and it’s in the dreaded early timeslot on the east coast. Washington had won two straight before a decent effort in loss at Kansas City. It has had two weeks to prepare for this one and we don’t expect Jay Gruden’s squad to take this one lightly. A 0-5 club playing a third straight away game against a host coming off a bye? Hardly seems fair. San Francisco is the likely landing spot for Washington QB Kirk Cousins next season. He will want to showcase his talents for his potential future employers and he’ll take no prisoners while running up the score. TAKING: REDSKINS -10
Rams (3-2) at Jaguars (3-2)
It’s Week 6 and the Jaguars are at home for only the second time. Their first time as host they produced an uninspiring 37-16 loss to division foe Titans. But Jacksonville still finds itself atop the AFC South despite that loss and smelling some success for the first time in ages, we expect a big effort here. The Rams are travelling across the country after physical affair with Seahawks. That game saw L.A. with too many errors and giveaways. Now they’ll face another quality defence and it could be too challenging on back-to-back weeks. While the Rams have been able to score points this season (30.4 per game), Jacksonville’s pass defence is one of the more reliable groups in the league, ranking third overall by allowing just 177.8 yards per game through the air. Rams’ run defence also an issue, relinquishing 133.6 yards each game. Jags emerging star RB Leonard Fournette is capable of exploiting that weakness. TAKING: JAGUARS -2½
Wunderdog
Giants at Broncos
Pick: Over 38.5
This is a low total because of the Denver defense, but the N.Y. Giants are #24 in the NFL in points allowed and are struggling badly against the run, allowing 139 yards on the ground per contest (#29). At least the snakebitten Giants finally have their offense going, scoring 24, 23 and 22 points the last three games. New York is 17-8-2 OVER the total after getting more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game. Denver comes off a bye scoring 82 points in its three home contests. The Broncos are one of the best rushing teams in the league, ranking third averaging 143 yards per game on the ground. The Broncos are 8-3-2 OVER the total at home against a team with a losing road record. Finally, playing OVER any NFL total between 35.5 and 42 points featuring a team like Denver in a non-conference tilt off a division game has cashed to the OVER 32 of the last 40 times.
Mike Anthony
Cleveland vs. Houston
Play: Houston -9.5
I'm not betting against the Houston defense... I just cant do it, especially vs a team that has put up just 7 and 10pts in 2 of their 5 games this season. It has been anemic since the season started. I think that there will be a lot of garbage time for starters in this bottom feeder game, late. Cleveland's QB, 2nd year player, Kevin Hogan won't be effective until the points no longer count. Getting Hogan out on the perimeter sounds like a pretty good idea for Houston, and they will force the action. Houston needs more of that...and will. Cleveland can get sloppy when the opportunity to move the ball happened to be available vs the Jets last week. And they will again, on the road. Cleveland's RBs allows too many defenders to get a hand on them, and Isaiah Crowell isn't a powerful finisher when trying to run the ball, with just 3.1 YPC and no 20+ yard runs on the season. If you don't keep your feet moving against a team like Houston when you have the chance - bad things are going to happen. Browns are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games Houston wins by 14 or more here on Sunday afternoon.
Jimmy Boyd
Lions vs. Saints
Play: Under 51
The books have set the total too high for Sunday's NFL action that has the Saints hosting the Lions. New Orleans is perceived to be one of the league's top scoring offenses, but the fact of the matter is, they have scored 20 or fewer points in 3 of their 4 games this season.
I look for the Saints offense to struggle to reach that mark again, as they take on a vastly improved Detroit defense. So much attention is paid to New Orleans' passing attack, which is annually one of the best in the NFL, but like every other team they need some balance. The only game the Saints have eclipsed 20 points is against the Panthers, where they had 149 rushing yards. In the games where they failed to eclipse 20 points they have had fewer than 90 yards rushing. Good chance they struggle on the ground here, as the Lions own the leagues 3rd ranked run defense, giving up just 74.6 ypg (allowing just 3.3 yards/carry).
I know the Saints defense has been awful in previous seasons and the numbers aren't great early on in 2017, but New Orleans has a lot of young talent on that side of the ball and been really good the last two games, holding the Panthers to just 13 points on the road and recording their first shutout in years in their last game against the Dolphins. With the way Detroit's offensive line has been struggling (allowed 12 sacks last 2 games) and the Saints coming off a bye, I look for the defense to hold their own here against Stafford and the Lions offense.
UNDER is 7-3 in the Saints last 10 against a team with a winning record and 4-0 in their last 4 off a SU win by more than 14 points. UNDER is also 12-3 in the Lions last 15 road games against NFC opponents and a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 road games after playing in a game with 50 or more combined points.
Art Aronson
Browns vs. Texans
Play: Browns +10
Cleveland is 0-5 and is most likely the worst team in the league. Houston has shown promise with DeShaun Watson under center, but the team took a major hit on the defensive side of the ball in last week’s heart-breaking loss at Kansas City, losing all pro defensive star JJ Watt for the rest of the season to injury. With their bye occuring next weekend before a game at Seattle, it’s also not too hard to imagine the home side looking past their lowly visitor today. DeShone Kizer is no DeShaun Watson, but note that Cleveland is 3-1 ATS in its last four after allowing 17 points or less in its previous contest. Looks like a few too many points, consider the BROWNS in this one.
Jack Jones
Packers vs. Vikings
Play: Vikings +3
This line indicates that the Packers would be favored by roughly 6 points against the Minnesota Vikings on a neutral field. There's no way the Packers are 6 points better than the Vikings, so the value is on the home underdog here catching a field goal Sunday.
And this is a huge statement game for the Vikings. They are 3-2 on the season while the Packers are 4-1, so they cannot afford a loss if they are serious about winning the division. They would essentially fall three games behind the Packers because of the tiebreaker with a loss. So you can bet that they will be putting their best foot forward here Sunday.
The Packers are the flavor of the week right now after Aaron Rodgers' heroics in Dallas last week. But now he's up against a real defense in the Vikings, and the best defense he has faced all season. After all, the Vikings held this high-powered Packers offense to just 14 points in a home win last season.
Minnesota comes in giving up just 18.6 points and 309 yards per game. And the offense has been pretty good under Case Keenum, especially last week against the Bears. Once Keenum replaced an injured Sam Bradford, the Vikings took off on offense. The Vikings scored 17 points in the second half to win the game. Keenum finished 17-of-21 passing for 140 yards and a touchdown against a good Bears defense that had shut down both Atlanta and Pittsburgh at home earlier this season.
The Vikings have one of the more underrated home-field advantages in the NFL, especially in their new stadium. The Vikings are 24-8 ATS in their last 32 home games, including a sensational 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The home team is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings.
The Packers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. Minnesota is 6-0 ATS off a win over a division opponent over the last three seasons. I think it's Minnesota that plays with a sense of urgency here, while Green Bay could have a letdown off its big win at Dallas last week.
Dave Cokin
San Francisco at Washington
Play: Washington -11
Based on just the raw results, this line would appear to be overly generous. After all, while the 49ers are 0-5, the last four losses have been by a combined 11 points, with two of those defeats coming in overtime.
But I see this as a really rough spot for San Francisco. Back to back OT losses and now a third straight road game is about as lousy as it gets as far as scheduling goes. I just cannot see the 49ers being at their best here, and they’re not good enough to hang when confronted with these conditions.
As for Washington, they’re sitting at 2-2 and cannot afford any bad losses as this one would certainly be if it took place.
To insure that nothing weird happens here, the Redskins must get back to defending the run as well as they did in the season’s first three weeks. That should be the focus of the game plan, as when SF QB Brian Hoyer is forced to take to the air, bad things often happen.
The number here is obviously large, but the fear of laying doubles in the NFL is not as daunting as it used to be. Fact is, simply laying it with any double digit chalk piece has been fairly profitable for several years now. I made this number Redskins -13, so there is actually a small value advantage and the situation simply strengthens that position. I’ll look for the blowout and will side with the Redskins on Sunday.
Scott Spreitzer
Chicago at Baltimore
Play: Chicago +6.5
It takes a little something to drop a game off 7 and that's exactly what happened in this one and we agree with the move. The Baltimore Ravens have been horrible in the passing game and the defense hasn't been able to stop the run. That's not a good combination for a team laying this many points. Baltimore is a bit banged-up in the receiving corps. Jeremy Maclin (questionable) and Breshad Perriman (probable) may play, but both are nursing injuries. Joe Flacco has had just one interception-free game so far in 2017 and may not have his best targets for the entire contest. Flacco and company will face a stout Bears' defense that ranks 8th against the pass and 6th in total yards allowed per game. We also like the fact rookie QB Mitchell Trubisky should have a running game to keep the heat off. Chicago will face a Baltimore defense ranked 23rd against the run, allowing more than 123 yards rushing per game. We like the matchup advantages mentioned and we're recommending a play on the Bears plus the points.
Jeff Benton
Your Sunday comp play is the Jets to cover as the home underdog against the Patriots.
Well, New England has had a few extra prep days after surviving at Tampa Bay on Thursday night a week ago, but let's face facts, if kicker Nick Folk would have converted, there is a strong chance the Pats would have lost that contest. Now you are asking them to cover near double-digits against a Jets team that is actually the "hotter" of the 2 teams on the field at MetLife Stadium with 3 wins in a row under their belts!
The Jets have been the money-winner in this series with the points, going 6-1-1 the past 8, and they have covered in each of the last 4 played at home over the Patriots.
Since New England stands at just 6-14 against the spread as the road favorite their last 20, and since New York is a profitable 12-5 as the home dog their last 17 - including 2-0 this year - I say you take the points with the Flyboys and make the New Englanders prove they can get on top of this big number.
J-E-T-S, Jets the call plus the points.
2* N.Y. JETS