NFL Betting News and Notes Sunday, October 15th, 2017

NFL Week 6

Dolphins (2-2) @ Falcons (3-1) — Miami’s OL coach was fired Monday for off-field issues, which can’t help an offense that scored 3 offensive TD’s on 42 drives in their 2-2 start. Last 3 games, Miami averaged 4.1/4.0/2.8 ypa, which is hideous. Dolphins are 7-11 in last 18 games as a road underdog. Atlanta is 7-1 in its last eight post-bye games, covering five of last six; they’ve run ball for 147 ypg in last three games. Falcons are 4-11 as home favorites under Quinn. Fish are 8-4 in series, but lost 38-16/19-7 in their only two visits here in last 20 years- their last win in Atlanta was in 1980. AFC East road teams are 7-2 vs spread outside their division; NFC South teams are 6-8 vs spread, 2-3 as home favorites. All four Miami games this year have stayed under total.

Packers (4-1) @ Vikings (3-2) — Keenum played QB in 2nd half of Monday nite’s win in Chicago; Vikings haven’t allowed a first half TD in last three games (outscored foes 31-8 )- they held last two opponents under 300 yards, last three opponents to 17 or less points. Minnesota is 12-3 in its last 15 games as a home underdog, 5-2 under Zimmer. Pack scored 35-35 points in last two games; Rodgers won game LW 35-31 in Dallas with last-minute drive- Green Bay is 9-7 vs spread in last 16 games as a road favorite, 5-2 in last 7 games on artificial turf. Last four GB games went over total. Green Bay is 11-3-1 in last 15 series games; they won 3 of last 4 visits to Twin Cities, but lost 17-14 in first visit to the Vikings’ new dome LY.

Lions (3-2) @ Saints (2-2) — Detroit won last three series games, by 1-8-15 points; they beat Saints here the last two years, 35-27/28-13. Lions are 2-0 on road, beating Giants/Vikings, but they lost last two home games; Detroit is just 11-39 on 3rd down last three weeks- they’ve run 65 times for 218 yards (72.7 ypg) in last three games. New Orleans is 6-1-1 vs spread in its last eight post-bye games. Saints are playing only 2nd home game- they allowed total of 13 points winning last two games after an 0-2 start. NO is 5-13-1 in its last 19 games as a home favorite. NFC North teams are 8-6 vs spread outside their division, 2-1 as road dogs. NFC South teams are 6-8 vs spread, 2-3 as home favorites.

Patriots (3-2) @ Jets (3-2) — Teams are in 3-way tie with Buffalo atop AFC East. Patriots are 10-2 in last 12 series games, with both losses in OT- teams split last four meetings played here. Pats won last meeting 41-3 LY. Extra prep time for NE after Thursday night win; they’re 2-0 on foreign soil, winning 36-20 in Superdome, 19-14 in Tampa LW, first game this year Patriots held an opponent under 7.6 ypa. Jets won three in row after an 0-2 start, they’re 12-5 vs spread in last 17 games as a home underdog. Gang Green held opponents to 13 points on their last six red zone drives, but that was vs sub-par NFL QB’s (Bortles-Kizer-Hogan). NE is 8-1 in last nine games as a road favorite- they have 25 plays of 20+ yards, #2 in NFL behind Rams’ 29.

49ers (0-5) @ Redskins (2-2) — Kyle Shanahan worked for Redskins with his dad from 2010-13; his 49ers lost in OT the last two weeks. Since 1997, favorites that lost the previous two weeks in OT are 4-2-1 vs spread in that 3rd game. Niners may be 0-5, but their last four losses were by 3-2-3-3 points- they’re 2-1 as road dogs. This is also their 3rd week in row on road, a historic soft spot for road teams. 49ers won last four series games, taking last two played here. Redskins’ last series win was in ’05. Redskins are 2-7 in last nine post-bye games; favorites covered 9 of their last 10 post-bye games. Washington is favored for first time this year; since 2013, they’re 5-10 vs spread as a home favorite.

Bears (2-3) @ Ravens (3-2) — Trubisky was 13-26/159 passing in his NFL debut Monday night, throwing key INT in last 3:00 that cost Bears the game, but he was OK. This is his first road start- he started only 13 college games at North Carolina. Chicago is 12-36 on 3rd their last three games; they’re 0-2 on road, losing 29-7 (+7) in Tampa, 35-14 (+7) in Green Bay- they’re 12-17-1 vs spread in last 30 games as a road underdog. Ravens scored 20+ in their three wins, with a +8 TO ratio- they scored 7-9 in losses, with -5 TO ratio. Baltimore is 5-3 vs spread in its last eight games as a home favorite. Bears are 3-2 in last five series games; home side won four of last five meetings. Ravens lost 23-20 in OT in last visit here, in 2013.

Browns (0-5) @ Texans (2-3) — Cleveland switched to Stanford alum Hogan at QB in 2nd half vs Jets LW- he led them on two TD drives in a 17-14 loss. Browns lost 24-10 (+7.5) at Baltimore, 31-28 (-1) at Indy in their two road games; they’re 6-11 vs spread in last 17 games as a road dog. Houston scored 33-57-34 points in last three games behind rookie QB Watson, but lost 2 of the 3; they allowed 29+ points in their three losses, 9-14 in their wins. Under O’Brien, Houston is 12-5-1 as a home favorite. Texans won five of last six series games, last of which was in 2014; Browns lost last three visits here, by 3-8-18 points. JJ Watt/Mercilus both need surgery for their injuries, big blow to the Houston defense. Since ’09, Texans are 5-3 as a double digit favorite.

Buccaneers (2-2) @ Cardinals (2-3) — Arizona is 2-3 with wins by 3 points each over Colts/49ers; their losses are by 12-11-27 points- they scored two TD’s on 23 drives in their last two games, scored 14.5 ppg in last four games. Dirk Koetter returns to Phoenix (was ASU’s coach from 2001-06); his Bucs got crushed 40-7 in Week 2 here LY, Bucs’ 3rd loss in last four visits to desert- teams split last eight series games. Cardinals are 4-3 as home underdogs under Arians, 16-10 since ’07. Tampa Bay (-2.5) lost 34-17 at Minnesota, in its only road game, first time in four years they were road favorite. Bucs are 5-4 SU on road under Koetter. NFC West teams are 3-9 vs spread outside their division. NFC South teams are 6-8 vs spread, 4-5 when favored.

Rams (3-2) @ Jaguars (3-2) — Two teams having surprising success under new leadership. Jags ran ball for 155+ yards in 4 of their 5 games; their wins are by 22-37-21 points. Jags are +11 in turnovers in those three games, -1 in their two losses, giving up 37-23 points- their defense scored 3 TD’s in their last two games, same as their offense. LA scored 41-35 points in winning its two road games, throwing ball for 10.4/6.8 ypa. Rams lost 13-10 to division rival Seattle LW; they’re -5 in turnovers in two losses, +4 in three wins. Home team won all four series games; Rams lost 23-20 in OT in only visit here, in 2009. NFC West teams are 3-9 vs spread outside their division, 1-6 on road. AFC South teams are 6-5 vs spread outside their division.

Steelers (3-2) @ Chiefs (5-0) — KC is best team in NFL right now, scoring 17 TD’s, trying 12 FG’s on 52 drives; none of their wins have been by less than 7 points. Under Andy Reid, Chiefs are 15-17 vs spread as home favorites, 2-0 this year. Pittsburgh is a road underdog for first time in three years; Steelers lost 2 of last 3 games, throwing five INTs in 30-9 home loss to Jaguars LW. Steelers won five of last six series games; they beat KC 18-16 here in LY’s playoffs, after crushing Chiefs 43-14 in Heinz Field during season. All five Steeler games stayed under the total; over is 3-0-2 in Chief games. Roethlisberger had one of his worst games LW, throwing five INTs with no TD’s- two of his INTs were run back for TD’s. He figures to bounce back here.

Chargers (1-4) @ Raiders (2-3) — Oakland lost its last three games, scoring 10-10-17 points; their QB has a broken back, his backup lost his last six NFL starts and the defense has zero turnovers in their last two games. Raiders are 5-6 vs spread as home favorites under Del Rio. Chargers got their first win LW; four of their five games were decided by 5 or less points. Bolts are 2-0 as road underdogs this year; since ’08, they’re 30-17-2 as road dogs- four of their five games this year went over total. Oakland won last four series games, last three all by 3 points; Chargers lost 23-20ot/34-31 in last two visits here. NFL-wide, home favorites are 5-8-1 vs spread in division games. Raiders’ team total stayed under in four of their five games.

Giants (0-5) @ Broncos (3-1) — New York is in freefall, starting 0-5 and now Beckham is done for the year. Maybe getting away from home will help. Giants’ last three losses are by 3-2-5 points- they ran for 152 yards LW, a positive step after averaging 59.3 ypg in first four games. Big Blue is 3-3-1 as road underdogs under McAdoo. Denver is 3-0 at home, winning by 3-25-6 points; since 2014, they’re 9-11-1 as a home favorite. Over is 3-1 in their four games. Four of five Giant games went over total. Denver won/covered six of last seven post-bye games. Giants lost four of five visits to Denver, losing last three by 14-11-20 points- their lone win in Mile High City was in ’89. This is first time since Manning retired that Denver is a double digit favorite.

Armadillosports.com

NFL Underdogs: Week 6 Picks and Predictions
By: Jason Logan
Covers.com

I feel lucky to escape Week 5 of the NFL season with a 0-2-1 ATS record for my underdog picks.

After completely missing the mark with the Cardinals +6.5 at Philadelphia and then sweating out the 49ers +2 in a 26-23 overtime loss in Indianapolis, I welcomed a push with Chicago +3 on Monday Night Football – a spread which moved to Bears +4 by kickoff, throwing some salt in the wound.

It wasn’t a very good result, considering I was 4-2 ATS the previous two weeks. But, hey… at least I had a better Week 5 than Ben Roethlisberger.

The Steelers veteran quarterback threw five interceptions – two for return touchdowns – in an embarrassing 30-9 home loss to the Jaguars Sunday. Pittsburgh was a 7.5-point favorite for that game, and now heads to dreaded Arrowhead Stadium for a run-in with the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs – a team that is a perfect 5-0 against the spread. Oddsmakers are giving Big Ben & Co. five points on the road.

Any other QB in this situation would be crapping in their Under Armour, but not Roethlisberger. Not after what he’s done to the Chiefs throughout his career.

Roethlisberger is a perfect 6-0 SU versus KC in games in which he’s gone wire-to-wire (he was injured midway their Week 11 2009 meeting at Arrowhead), posting a 4-2 ATS mark in those contests. According to ESPN stats and info, Ben owns a career regular season passer rating of 118.7 against the Chiefs with a total of 13 touchdowns to only three interceptions.

Kansas City limps into Week 6 with injuries to starters following a brutal 42-34 win over Houston Sunday night, most notably WR Chris Conley (Achilles) and TE Travis Kelce (concussion) – two of Alex Smith’s favorite targets.

The Chiefs’ explosive offense – ranked tops in the NFL with 32.8 ppg – has been able to pick up the slack for a crumby defense, which is allowing 366 yards per outing (27th) including an average of 248 passing yards. Kansas City is giving up a NFL-high 13.6 yards per completion and now faces a big-play Steelers offense anxious to find pay dirt after generating only nine points in Week 5.

Roethlisberger and the offense have underachieved compared to past standards, but have faced some formidable stop units through the first five weeks: Cleveland (5th total yards/19th vs pass), Minnesota (7th in total yards/20th vs. pass), Chicago (6th total yards/8th vs. pass), Baltimore (16th total yards/9th vs. pass), Jacksonville (14th total yards/3rd vs. pass).

With Big Ben bound to bounce back against his favorite foe, I’m taking the points on Pittsburgh in Week 6.

Pick: Steelers +5

Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans (-10, 46.5)

There are a number of hefty spreads on the Week 6 board. The Dolphins are getting +11.5 in Atlanta, the Jets are 9.5-point pups hosting New England, the Niners are 10-point pups at Washington, and the Giants are at +11.5 and climbing in Denver. And then we have the Cleveland Browns getting 10 points in Houston for a 1 p.m. ET kickoff.

The Texans come into this game receiving a lot more credit from oddsmakers than they deserve. Yes, Houston has played some good teams tough, taking the Patriots to the brink and making the Chiefs sweat in the fourth quarter on Sunday night. But in the end, they’re a 2-3 club with wins over Cincinnati and Tennessee (two other 2-3 teams).

Houston is primed for a massive letdown game after facing the undefeated Chiefs in primetime, and with a much-needed bye week on the horizon. The Texans had their hearts ripped out on defense with a season-ending injury to J.J. Watt as well as losing top pass-rushing linebacker Whitney Mercilus for the remainder of the year.

Cleveland is going with its 28th different starter at quarterback since 1999 when Kevin “Hollywood” Hogan gets the football in Week 6. Hogan came in at half in the loss to the Jets in Week 5 and instantly injected life into the Browns offense nearly erasing another craptacular performance from rookie DeShone Kizer.

Hogan went 16 for 19 for 130 yards, a touchdown and an interception while scrambling for another 30 yards on four carries. He’s done well in his limited action in 2017: 377 passing yards, three TDs, two INTS, and a QB rating of 104.8 – which is actually a tick better than Aaron Rodgers (wink wink).

I'm betting on a letdown from the Texans and a steady performance from “Hollywood” Hogan.

HIT THE MUSIC!

Pick: Browns +10

Los Angeles Rams at Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5, 42.5)

We already touched on the 3-2 Jaguars’ one-sided Week 5 win over the Steelers above. But what we haven’t talked about is how Jacksonville has responded to those wins.

The Jags followed a Week 1 victory over Houston with a loss to Tennessee, then went on to soundly beat Baltimore in London before losing to the Jets in Week 4 – failing to cover the spread in both of those defeats. Jacksonville faces the mother of all letdown spots at home in Week 6.

The Rams literally gave away a win at home to Seattle Sunday. Los Angeles coughed the ball up five times – two INTs and three lost fumbles – losing 16-10 as 2-point home chalk despite outgaining the Seahawks 325-241 in offensive yardage. On top of that, Los Angeles whiffed on all four trips inside the red zone including a dropped touchdown pass on what would have been a game-tying score in the dying seconds.

But while the offense stalled (an offense still averaging 30.4 ppg), the defense seemed to find its familiar form. The Rams were solid against the run and pestered Russell Wilson for three sacks, countless hurries, and held him to just 65 percent completions. They also had two interceptions – one off Wilson and the other off WR Tanner McEvory on a trick play.

The Rams have thrived on the road so far, with a win at San Francisco but most notably a come-from-behind victory at Dallas in Week 4. The Jaguars haven’t been sharp in front of the North Florida faithful, boasting a 2-5 ATS count in their last seven home games.

Pick: Rams +3

Last week: 0-2-1 ATS
Season: 6-8-1 ATS

NFL's Biggest Betting Mismatches: Week 6
By: Monty Andrews
Covers.com

New England Patriots at New York Jets (+9.5, 47.5)

Patriots' putrid pass defense vs. Jets' shutdown secondary

If you had told the majority of NFL bettors that the Patriots and Jets would have identical records through five games, you would probably get some strange looks. But that's exactly what has happened as the AFC East rivals do battle this Sunday afternoon at MetLife Stadium. Even more surprisingly, the team's point differentials aren't that far off - thanks in part to New England's strangely weak pass defense, and in part to the Jets effectively limiting opposing pass attacks.

Nothing has come easily for the Patriots, who have seen each of their last three game decided by five points or fewer. They escaped Tampa with a 19-14 triumph over the Buccaneers, but still surrendered 319 passing yards in doing so and have allowed 1,615 yards through the air on the season, by far the most in the NFL. Opposing quarterbacks have recorded an average passer rating of 109.2 in five games against the Patriots; only the Cleveland Browns (112.4) have yielded a higher aggregate rating.

The Jets can't hope to exchange offensive firepower with New England even with the Patriots struggling on the defensive end - but they certainly boast a more formidable secondary. The Jets rank in the middle of the pack league-wide in passing yards against per game (212), but are allowing the eighth-lowest passer rating (81.9). That number drops all the way to 56.2 at home, tied for the lowest passer rating in the league among visiting quarterbacks. If this trend continues, the Jets should keep this one close.

Los Angeles Chargers at Oakland Raiders (OFF)

Chargers' punishing pass pressure vs. Raiders' leaky O-line

Things have gone sideways in Oakland, with the Raiders - pegged by some as the potential Super Bowl representative from the AFC - having lost three consecutive games and dealing with an injury to their star quarterback. Even if Derek Carr returns this week - and head coach Jack Del Rio believes he will - he'll need to get better protection than the quarterback position has received in recent weeks. That could be a big ask this week, as the Chargers bring their league-best pass pressure to town.

Armed with two of the best young pass rushers in the game in Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram, the Chargers have punished opposing quarterbacks all season long. Los Angeles enters the game with the best sack rate in the NFL, taking down the QB on 10.18 percent of opponent dropbacks through five games. The Chargers have been even more prolific on the road, registering a 12.33-percent sack rate in two games away from Los Angeles. They rank third overall in total sacks with 17; Bosa and Ingram have 12 of them.

The Raiders haven't been able to keep the quarterback safe during their three-game losing skid. Oakland has given up a sack on 9.8 percent of dropbacks over that stretch; only five other teams have been worse at protecting the QB in that span. That dropped the team's sack allowed rate to 7.32 percent on the season, 20th-best in the league. And if the Raiders can't contain one of the top pass rushes in the league this weekend, they might struggle to end their losing ways.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5, 46)

Steelers' second-half woes vs. Chiefs' late scoring barrage

It's officially panic time in Steel Town, with the Steelers looking for answers after last week's 30-17 beatdown at the hands of the visiting Baltimore Ravens. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is hinting at retirement after throwing five interceptions in the stunning loss, and things won't get any easier for him in hostile territory this Sunday. The Chiefs have been the class of the league so far, due in large part to an offense that has been much better than anyone expected it to be - particularly in the second half.

The Steelers came into the season with high hopes on the offensive end - and having Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown on the roster doesn't hurt. But Pittsburgh is averaging fewer than 20 points per game with Roethlisberger looking like a quarterback on the downside of his career. The Steelers enter the weekend averaging a paltry 7.8 second-half points per game - sitting in the bottom quarter of the league in that category. It's a far cry from the 12 second-half points the Steelers averaged a season ago.

Perhaps Roethlisberger and the Steelers could learn a thing or two from Alex Smith and the surprising Chiefs, who have scored a league-best 164 points through five games. Kansas City was a below-average second-half scoring unit in 2016 but has exceeded expectations so far this season, leading the league with 19.4 second-half points per game. With Pittsburgh reeling and the Chiefs rolling, Big Ben will need to be a lot better than he was last week if the Steelers have any hope of keeping things close.

New York Giants at Denver Broncos (-11.5, 39.5)

Giants' third-down woes vs. Broncos' drive-killing prowess

You can find several reasons to fade the Giants this weekend at Sports Authority Field at Mile High - and it all starts with the state of the New York receiving corps. The Giants lost both Odell Beckham and Dwayne Harris for the season in last week's loss to the Chargers, while Brandon Marshall will miss multiple games and Sterling Shepard is also banged-up. The Giants were already having trouble converting on third down, and this won't make it any easier - especially against that vaunted Broncos defense.

New York's offense has struggled for most of the season, particularly at extending drives. The Giants have converted just 36.4 percent of third-down opportunities to date, tied with Cincinnati for 24th in the NFL. It's an extension of a trend that plagued New York last season, when it placed 31st out of 32 teams in third-down conversion rate. And what's even more baffling: quarterback Eli Manning has been decent on third down this season, completing 70 percent of passes with two TDs and zero interceptions.

He's going to need to be that accurate - or more so - this weekend as he faces a Broncos defense that has been positively brutal on opposing offenses facing third down. Denver has allowed foes to complete just 25.9 percent of third-down opportunities; only two other teams (Minnesota, Miami) have an opponent success rate below 30 percent. With most of his pass catchers on the sidelines and a fearsome Denver defense awaiting him, Manning will be in tough to improve his team's third-down numbers.

NFL Week 6 Essentials
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com

Browns at Texans: It took four games for Hue Jackson to decide rookie QB DeShone Kizer needed to take a step back and watch someone else work. The expectation here is that he'll eventuallly get the job back from Kevin Hogan to help the Browns determine whether they need to draft another quarterback next April, but for now, the second-year ex-Stanford starter gets the ball. He gets his passes out quicker and moved Cleveland better than Kizer against the Jets, but the franchise's 28th starting QB since 1999 isn't the answer either.

His arm isn't strong and his delivery isn't fluid, but his brain should make him a more than serviceable backup for years to come. The Browns need more than that. The Texans need to prove they can beat teams being led by backup QBs in the wake of season-ending injuries to J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus. Although banged up, Jadeveon Clowney (knee), Benardick McKinney (hip) and Johnathan Joseph (groin) are all set to be a part of a revamped defense that needs to try and succeed going forward without a number of their most gifted assets.

Cleveland will try and slow down rookie QB DeShaun Watson, who has thrown 11 touchdown passes over his last three games while running for an additional one. The Texans have averaged over 41 points per game but are just 1-2 in that span, defeating Tennessee but losing to New England and Kansas City. The winless Browns have only topped 20 points once this season and have only once in their last 24 games. They've lost 15 straight road games, last winning over two years ago (Oct. 11, 2015) in Baltimore.

Tackle Joe Barksdale (foot) guard Matt Slauson (tricep) were limited in practice as the o-line issues that have helped trip up the Chargers the past few years continue. Russell Okung (groin) and LB Jatavis Brown (ankle) will play, while rookie WR Mike Williams (neck) is still at least a game away. The Chargers went out on Friday, a day early, to get acclimated to the time difference. They have lost nine straight overall, winning last on Nov. 27, 2016 on the road at Houston.

Patriots at Jets: I don't know whether it's more unlikely that the entire AFC East is at .500 or better entering Week 6 or that these teams are currently tied, but the winner here gets to stay in first place. Shockingly, there's a heavy favorite as to who that will be, but the Jets are almost certain to be an underdog in every remaining game this season, so it's a role they've grown accustomed to even though they come off a win as a road favorite in Cleveland.

New York has won three in a row in a season where its projected win total closed at 3.5 at Westgate, riding a defense that has pitched first-half shutouts in two of the last three weeks and has stifled opponents in the red zone. Of course, the quarterbacks they've faced include luminaries Jay Cutler, Blake Bortles, Kizer and Hogan, so we'll see if they can have similar success against Tom Brady. New England has dominated this for the majority of the past two decades, winning 23 of the last 30 meetings.

Bill Belichick is 11-2 against New York since his team's 2010 playoff loss, a run that opened with a 45-3 win and featured a 41-3 rout in the most recent meeting last Christmas Eve. That was only one of two covers New England has recorded over its last 10 games against the Jets. The Pats have prevailed in 10 straight road games (9-1 ATS), only failing to cover in last season's 22-17 Nov. 27 win over these Jets. Tom Brady (shoulder) and Rob Gronkowski (thigh) will play.

Dolphins at Falcons: Adam Gase's team has won five of their last seven games outside south Florida, but find themselves in a major offensive rut, having scored a single offensive touchdown in three of their four games and getting shutout by the Saints in the outlier. Jay Ajayi has played through a nagging knee injury, while Jay Cutler's passing yardage has decreased every week thus far. That's likely to change this week since the bar is set so low (92 yards), unless he struggles so much that some Dolphins fans get their wish and Matt Moore gets a shot. It won't help that WR DeVante Parker is unlikely to play due to an ankle injury. Offensive line issues have certainly played a key role in the regression, so it will be interesting to see how the team responds following the controversy that cost line coach Chris Foerster his job.

Atlanta, meanwhile, comes off a drama-free bye week that allowed the offense to catch get back in the lab after being held to a season-low 17 points in a loss to Buffalo, their second-lowest point total since 2015. Steve Sarkisian's offense failed to score in the first and third quarter against Buffalo and turned it over three times. There were two other fumbles that they recovered, so it was a sloppy performance that continued a theme since Matt Ryan threw three picks in a 30-26 win at Detroit. The reigning NFL MVP will have Julio Jones back in the mix as his main target after he left in the first half of the Buffalo loss due to a hip flexor injury. No. 2 WR Mohamed Sanu still needs a few more weeks to heal his injured hamstring, which could give other weapons like Andre Roberts, Justin Hardy and TE Austin Hooper more targets. The Dolphins list CB Byron Marshall as questionable, while Atlanta will have speedy playmaker Vic Beasley back to help make up for pass rusher Courtney Upshaw's absence.

Lions at Saints: Detroit has won each of the last three seasons, averaging 29 points per game while outrushing New Orleans and applying more defensive pressure. The last two wins have come in New Orleans, which is where nine of the last 12 matchups have taken place. The Saints have only won once in Detroit in the last 25 years, rolling 42-7 behind Drew Brees back in 2008 against a team that ultimately went winless. Matthew Stafford was drafted No. 1 the next year, lost his first two matchups against Brees in '11, including dropping an NFC wild card game, but has since dominated the series. He popped up on the injury report with an ailing quad and hurt ankle, but is expected to play.

The Saints avoided committing a turnover in any of their first four games, the first time Brees has managed that in his career, so they'll be looking to secure a winning record this deep into a season for the first time since opening 5-0 in 2013. Tackles Terron Armstead and Andrus Peat each have a chance to play following the layoff, which would definitely help the cause against a Lions defensive front loaded with athletes. The best of the pass-rushers, Ziggy Ansah, is listed as questionable with a lingering knee issue he's been able to play through. Only LB Paul Worrilow has been ruled out for Detroit.

Packers at Vikings: Case Keenum gets another turn under center, coming in 2-2 in games where he's had to step in for Sam Bradford. The latest pinch-hitting appearance was his first coming in off the bench, as he helped pull out Monday night's 20-17 win in Chicago after Bradford couldn't continue. He's 1-2 in starts and will have to make due with out top wideout Stefon Diggs, who won't play due to a groin injury that really limited the Vikings' passing attack against the Bears. Safety Andrew Sendejo is also a key question mark for Minnesota, while guard Nick Easton won't play.

The Packers are going to be thin in the back with safety Morgan Burnett sidelined, won't have LB Joe Thomas and list LB Ahmad Brooks and CB Kevin King as doubtful. Davon House should play, but if he suffers a setback, depth in the secondary will be scarce. Aaron Rodgers rescued a win in Dallas and is hoping to have top tackles Bryan Bulaga and David Bakhtiari back to provide even more protection. RB Aaron Jones has emerged in Ty Montogmery's absence, but the receiver turned back is hopeful to return from suffering broken ribs. Jordy Nelson's back was also a concern in practice this week, so how much he can do remains to be seen. Green Bay is 11-3-1 SU against Minnesota over the last 14 meetings and haven't lost by more than a single possession in any of those games.

Bears at Ravens: The other team facing a short week situation also has to overcome a rookie quarterback making his first road start. Mitch Trubisky threw his first career touchdown pass on a ball that probably should've been intercepted and threw two picks he wasn't as fortunate on, the last of which ended up setting Minnesota's game-winning field goal. His athleticism still made him an improvement over Mike Glennon since he created offense with his ability to buy time and move the pocket, but he's not going to have the impact Watson has had with Houston.

Baltimore has a veteran defense that has already posted one shutout (at Cincinnati) and picked off rookie DeShone Kizer three times in his road debut, so defensive coordinator Dean Pees is sure to challenge Trubisky. He'll probably have to do so without DT Brandon Williams and OLB Tim Williams, both of whom are doubtful. Corner Jimmy Smith is going to play, but DT Carl Davis is questionable. According to ESPN Stats & Info, the Ravens are 14-1 at home vs. rookie QBs in their 22-year history, losing to Jake Plummer back in 1997. They're 9-0 under John Harbaugh, who will have to stay perfect despite missing a pair offensive starters in RB Terrance West and lineman Matt Skura. Buck Allen and Alex Collins will continue to get carries.

49ers at Redskins: Kyle Shanahan encounters former pupil Kirk Cousins for the second time in a regular-season game, winning as offensive coordinator in OT when Cousins threw a walk-off pick-six in OT against the Falcons in 2015. He's now looking for his first win as a head coach, having lost four games by a combined 11 points. The last two losses have come in OT, and the schedule has done him no favors as this is the team's fourth road game in five weeks and third in succession. The team released veteran LB NaVorro Bowman, which frees up the middle for rookie Reuben Foster, who seeks to return from an ankle injury. Safety Eric Reid could also return from a knee injury that's forced him to miss the last few games.

Although Washington comes off an early bye week that it badly needed, the extra time off wasn't enough to ensure the healthy return of numerous key figures. Left tackle Trent Williams, still limping around due to a knee injury, is questionable. Top corner Josh Norman will sit due to his rib injury, DB Deshazor Everett is doubtful and LB Zach Brown is questionable. Considering the next five weeks feature road games at Philadelphia, Seattle and New Orleans in addition to home dates against the Cowboys and Vikings, handling business against one of the NFL's three winless squads at home is a must.

Rams at Jaguars: One of the NFL's top young defenses awaits the arrival of a new-look attack that has made the league take notice over the first five gaems. The winner of this L.A./Jacksonville matchup will unexpectedly move to 4-2, atop their division, even if likely not in sole possession of first place. Considering the Jags never won a fourth game last season and L.A. stopped at five, losing 11 of 12, it's a big deal to take a significant step forward into contention. Only the Chiefs (32.8 ) are averaging more points per game than the Rams (30.4), while Jacksonville (16.6) surrenders fewer points than anyone but Buffalo (14.8 ), so this should be determined by the team that best imposes its will.

Both teams are relatively helathy, particularly in their areas of strength. The Rams are a bit banged up in their back seven with LB/S Mark Barron and DB Lamarcus Joyner each questionable and CB Troy Hill considered doubtful to play. Jacksonville has struggled to replace the explosiveness of projected big-play WRs Allen Robinson and Dede Westbrook, who have been out since the opening week, while center Brandon Linder will miss his second straight game due to an undisclosed illness. Tyler Shatley filled in for the upset at Pittsburgh and will make his sixth start here. This will be just the fourth-ever meeting between these franchises. The Rams are 1-3, but the Jaguars won in OT in the lone meeting in Jacksonville back on Oct. 18, 2009.

"The wiseguys hit Jacksonville and Tampa Bay early, and hard. Those were bad numbers," Oddsmaker.eu spokesman Scott Cooley said. "Probably should have opened each at -2 or even -3. Trying to entice some money on the other sides."

Buccaneers at Cardinals: The game above involves two of the NFL's biggest surprises. This one is all about avoiding becoming one of the most disappointing. Arizona is already under .500, while Tampa Bay arrives 2-2, owning wins over the Giants and Bears, who enter Sunday's game a combined 1-9. The Bucs will be playing just their second road game and are making their only trip of the season to the west coast, so it's fortunate that even with no bye due to Week 1's hurricane-related cancellation, they're coming in off their longest layoff. Tampa Bay fell 19-14 against the Patriots two Thursdays ago and should be healthier. Although LB Kwon Alexander and safety Keith Tandy remain out, fellow starting LB Lavonte David and S T.J. Ward are likley to return. DE Robert Ayers is also back, so Tampa Bay is healthier than its been in a few weeks. It also has a new kicker, replacing Nick Folk with Patrick Murray, back for a second tour with the Bucs after injuries have shelved him the past few seasons.

Jameis Winston threw four interceptions and lost a fumble in last season's 40-7 to the Cardinals, so you know he's had this game circled. He hasn't been intercepted in three of his four starts, but he was picked off in his only road game. Patrick Peterson (quad) should play despite coming in questionable, but DT Corey Peters (knee), DT Robert Nkemdiche (calf) and LB Karlos Dansby (hamstring) are all questionable. Arizona is hoping a 34-7 loss in Philadelphia last Sunday was rock bottom, since they're still hopeful that David Johnson can return by early December and help the Cardinals make a playoff run. Adrian Peterson, acquired for a conditional draft pick earlier in the week, will debut and should get early-down carries with Andre Ellington getting third-down work. With a trip to London scheduled for next week for a divisional game against the Rams, this feels like a must-win for Arizona.

Steelers at Chiefs: Pittsburgh was favored to win the Super Bowl by Westgate entering Week 5, but its awful loss to the Jaguars dropped it to fourth at 7-to-1, coming in behind New England (9/2), Green Bay (5/1) and Kansas City (6/1). This Chiefs team is one it will likely have to get through again come postseason, making this potential preview the top matchup we're getting this weekend. Whether it lives up to expectations will depend on whether Ben Roethlisberger can rebound from a five-interception day against Jacksonville. The future Hall of Fame QB has played considerably better at home than he has on the road over the past few seasons, so Arrowhead isn't the ideal venue for him to bounce back in. He's 2-1 in Kansas City, leading the Steelers to an 18-16 win in the AFC Divisional playoffs in the most recent meeting back in mid-January, setting up six field goals. He's thrown for 815 yards with four TD passes and 4 INTs in three career starts there. The return of RT Marcus Gilbert should help, especially if LG Ramon Foster can play after failing to practice all week due to a back issue.

Kansas City's ability to pressure requires all hands on deck for the Steelers, especially since Justin Logan, Dee Ford and Bennie Logan will all play this week. The Chiefs got great news regarding skill players Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill and Albert Wilson too, so Alex Smith will have all his weapons to work with. The offensive line will need to be shuffled again since center Mitch Morse (foot) and guard Laurent Duvernay-Tardif (knee) will miss this key contest. Rookie RB Kareem Hunt leads the NFL in rushing yardage (609) and key rushing categories like yards after contact (338) and forced missed tackles (35).

Chargers at Raiders: Derek Carr is set to return after breaking bones in his back two weeks ago in Denver, which means a merciful end to the temporary E.J. Manuel era. In fairness, the Raiders didn't fall off a cliff due to their QB since Carr was present for the Sunday night debacle in Landover to close out September that started their current three-game losing streak. Oakland has been outscored 73-37 and never really been in any of the games, falling behind almost immediately. Amari Cooper caught one pass for 28 yards last week and has gotten in his own head, so the Raiders badly need to turn this home game into a revival. Super Bowl odds dipped to 30/1 this week, the lowest they've been all season.

By comparison, the Chargers are at 300/1 despite finally picking up their first win by outlasting the Giants 27-22. They've faced the two teams that already have compiled five wins and also were forced to visit Denver, so it's hard to lump this team in among the league's bottom-five even though they reside there record-wise. Not having any homefield advantage at Carson's Stub Hub Center means they'll be fine in Oakland, or even Santa Clara if the NFL winds up moving the game there due to air quality. Philip Rivers has dropped four consecutive games over the last two years, losing the last three contests by three points each time. The expectation is that he'll finally have rookie receiver Mike Williams in the mix to throw to, which gives him a full compliment of weapons to work with against a depleted Raiders secondary.

Giants at Broncos: NBC certainly didn't envision an 0-5 team being a part of this one and had no way to forecast such a depleted version of the Giants visiting Invesco Field at Mile High. WRs Odell Beckham, Jr., Brandon Marshall and Sterling Shepard join center Weston Richburg on the sidelines for the offense here, while DE Olivier Vernon (ankle) is hurt, CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie is suspended and safety Landon Collins is questionable due to an ankle injury. New York hasn't won in Denver since 1989, losing its last three meetings.

Denver comes off a bye, so complacency could be a factor to deal with. It's up to first-year head coach Vance Joseph to prove he can keep his team focused since the Broncos' next three games all come on the road against the Chargers, Chiefs and Eagles before they return home for another Sunday night date (Nov. 12) against the Patriots.

Monday, Oct. 9

Colts at Titans: It sounds like we won't know about Marcus Mariota's availability due to an injured hamstring until closer to kickoff. He's hopeful that he'll be able to participate and did work all week that suggests there's a realistic possibility he'll return and this isn't just a smokescreen to force the Colts to prepare for him instead of putting in more work on backup Matt Cassel. Save your jokes about that being light duty, though they do ring true given his showing in Sunday's loss in Miami, an effort that displayed the depths bad quarterback play can sink to. Even though it would potentially be easier for Cassel to find a rhythm at home, the Titans badly need their franchise QB back for a key divisional game. LT Taylor Lewan should play after leaving the Dolphins loss early due to an injured knee.

Indianapolis is looking for consecutive wins, something it managed only once last season. Jacoby Brissett has settled in as the starter, throwing for a career-high 314 yards in Sunday's OT win over San Francisco. He's 2-2 in his starts, throwing a pair of TD passes, three interceptions and has rushed for three scores. He's not Andrew Luck, but he has displayed growth since arriving in town in early September. Tight end Jack Doyle caught 15 passes on 20 targets from him before missing last week's game with a concussion, but he could clear protocol this week given the extra day. This is arguably the healthiest Indy has been all season, though Andrew Luck is likely still weeks away.

Pick Six - Week 6
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

Week 5 Record: 3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS
Overall Record: 13-17 SU, 13-17 ATS

Patriots (-9½, 48) at Jets

New England

Record: 3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS, 4-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 9/2

Not many people would have bet that the Patriots would be tied atop the AFC East through five games with the Bills and Jets. New England rebounded from a home loss to Carolina to hold off Tampa Bay, 19-14 as 3½-point road favorites. Tight end Rob Gronkowski sat out with a thigh injury, while the Patriots failed to reach the 20-point mark for only the third time since the start of 2016. Gronkowski is expected to play on Sunday, while quarterback Tom Brady is nursing a left shoulder sprain, but he will make the start. The Patriots have failed to cover in their last four trips to Met Life Stadium, while holding off the Jets, 22-17 as 8½-point favorites last season.

New York

Record: 3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS, 3-2 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 125/1

Who knows how long the Jets will keep winning, but New York has rebounded from an 0-2 start to pull off three consecutive victories. After routing the Dolphins in Week 3, the Jets are coming off consecutive three-point wins, including a 17-14 triumph at Cleveland last week. The last time the Jets won at least four straight games came in 2015, which included an overtime victory over the Patriots. New York’s defense has stepped up during this hot streak by allowing 40 points, which is a major improvement after yielding 45 points in a Week 2 blowout loss at Oakland.

Best Bet: Patriots -9½

Dolphins at Falcons (-12½, 45½)

Miami

Record: 2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS, 4-0 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 100/1

The Dolphins’ defense is doing a great job at keeping the team in the game, but the offense isn’t pulling its weight. Miami has yielded 20 points or fewer in all four contests, while the offense has managed three touchdowns this season. In last week’s 16-10 victory over the Titans, the defense reached the end zone on a fumble return for a score, while Jay Cutler threw only his third touchdown pass of the season to Jarvis Landry. Under Adam Gase, the Dolphins have put together a 5-4 ATS record as a road underdog, while winning five of their last six regular season away games.

Atlanta

Record: 3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS, 2-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 10/1

The defending NFC champions are back from the bye week after getting tripped up Buffalo in Week 4. The Falcons will have two of their stars back in the lineup as wide receiver Julio Jones and linebacker Vic Beasley were both nursing injuries. Jones has yet to score a touchdown this season, as the Falcons look to snap a four-game home losing streak to AFC opponents since 2015. Atlanta had registered 10 consecutive home OVERS prior to hitting the UNDER in the 23-17 defeat to the Bills on a 48 total.

Best Bet: Dolphins +12½

Lions at Saints (-4, 50½)

Detroit

Record: 3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS, 3-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 40/1

The Lions have dropped two of their last three games since a 2-0 start, coming off a 27-24 home defeat to the Panthers last Sunday. Detroit has seen more success away from Ford Field this season by compiling a 2-0 road mark, while limiting the Giants and Vikings to 17 points combined in those victories. The Lions have taken care of business against the Saints the last three seasons by going 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS in the past three meetings, including consecutive victories at the Superdome as an underdog.

New Orleans

Record: 2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS, 3-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 50/1

The Saints return from the bye week after blowing out the Dolphins in London, 20-0 to easily cash as four-point favorites. New Orleans’ defense was terrible the first two weeks by giving up 65 points in a pair of losses to Minnesota and New England, but rebounded by allowing only 13 points against New Orleans and Miami in games away from the Superdome. The Saints are listed as a home favorite for the first time this season, as New Orleans has struggled in this role by compiling a 4-7-1 ATS mark since 2015.

Best Bet: Lions +4

Packers (-3, 45½) at Vikings

Green Bay

Record: 4-1 SU, 3-2 SU, 4-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 7/1

The Packers picked up their first road win of the season last week in comeback fashion by knocking off the Cowboys, 35-31 as two-point underdogs. Green Bay erased a 15-point deficit to beat Dallas for the second straight time at AT&T Stadium, as Aaron Rodgers has thrown 10 touchdown passes in the past three games, including three against the Cowboys. The Packers split the two meetings with the Vikings last season, which included a 17-14 setback at Minnesota as 1½-point favorites.

Minnesota

Record: 3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS, 3-2 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 33/1

The Vikings have a quick turnaround after edging the Bears last Monday night, 20-17, but Minnesota failed to cover as 3½-point road favorites. Minnesota will play its third consecutive divisional contest, while attempting to win back-to-back games for the first time this season. Case Keenum will get the start at quarterback in place of Sam Bradford, while star wide receiver Stefon Diggs will miss the contest with a groin injury. After posting a 9-3 home record from 2015 through Week 5 of 2016, the Vikings have split their last eight home contests.

Best Bet: Vikings +3

Rams at Jaguars (-2½, 42)

Los Angeles

Record: 3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS, 4-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 66/1

The Rams begin a brutal travel stretch with four of the next five games away from the L.A. Coliseum. Los Angeles squandered a 10-0 lead in last Sunday’s 16-10 home defeat to Seattle to fall into a first-place tie with the Seahawks atop the NFC West. The Rams turned the ball over five times, including a season-high two interceptions thrown by Jared Goff. L.A. dropped to 0-3 ATS the last three games in the favorite role, but the Rams have covered in their only opportunity in the underdog role at Dallas in a Week 4 victory.

Jacksonville

Record: 3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS, 3-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 50/1

The Jaguars have been a pleasant surprise this season, but are still searching for consistency. Jacksonville has yet to win consecutive games, while coming off an impressive effort in a 30-9 blowout of Pittsburgh as 7½-point underdogs. The Jags picked off Ben Roethlisberger five times, while taking two of those interceptions back for touchdowns. Leonard Fournette busted off a 90-yard touchdown in the final two minutes for Jacksonville, as the rookie running back has reached the end zone in four of five games. Since December 2015, the Jaguars own a dreadful 0-4 ATS record in the favorite role.

Best Bet: Rams +2½

Steelers at Chiefs (-4, 47)

Pittsburgh

Record: 3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS, 5-0 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 12/1

The Steelers are going the wrong way following a 2-0 start by losing two of their last three games. Following a dismantling of the rival Ravens, Pittsburgh failed to reach the end zone in a 21-point home setback to Jacksonville, while turning the ball over five times. The good news is the Pittsburgh defense yielded 313 yards, which included a late 90-yard touchdown run when the game was out of reach. Pittsburgh is listed in the underdog role for the first time this season, while edging Kansas City in the divisional playoffs last season as 2½-point ‘dogs, 18-16.

Kansas City

Record: 5-0 SU, 5-0 ATS, 4-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 5/1

The only team that remains unbeaten after five weeks is the Chiefs, who cruised past the Texans last Sunday night, 42-34. The final score was not indicative of how well Kansas City played, as the Chiefs allowed two touchdowns in the final 68 seconds of regulation. Alex Smith still hasn’t thrown an interception yet for Kansas City, as the Chiefs’ quarterback threw for 324 yards and three touchdowns to move to an 11/0 touchdown to interception ratio. Since getting blown out at Pittsburgh last October, the Chiefs have won 15 of their last 17 regular season games, but Kansas City is 4-4 ATS in its past eight regular season contests at Arrowhead Stadium.

Best Bet: Steelers +4

Total Talk - Week 6
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com

Week 5 Recap

The ‘under’ posted an 8-6 record in Week 4 and most of the low-scoring results were never in doubt. Unlike the previous weekend, there weren’t any terrible ‘bad beats’ but the 49ers-Colts outcome received a late surge from San Francisco to help the ‘over’ plus things broke right for the offensive units at the end of the Packers-Cowboys contest. Through five weeks of the season, our numbers have the ‘under’ sitting at 39-37-1 based on our closing numbers.

Line Moves

Listed below are the largest line moves as of Saturday morning based off the Week 6 openers posted last Sunday at BookMaker.eu.

Cleveland at Houston: 44 to 47
Miami at Atlanta: 47½ to 45½
Detroit at New Orleans: 51 to 49½
Green Bay at Minnesota: 47 to 44½ (Vikings Injuries)
Chicago at Baltimore: 41½ to 38½
L.A. Rams at Jacksonville: 44 to 42½
N.Y. Giants at Denver: 41 to 39½

It’s rare to see totals drop on a pair of known ‘over’ teams at home in the Falcons and Saints but that’s the case this week.

"Well, we know that the public isn’t playing the under on any Saints or Falcons games so it’s sharp money bringing those down,” said Scott Cooley of BookMaker.eu.

“I doubt the Saints’ total will stay under its opener with the Lions a “perceived” scoring team too. The Atlanta movement makes sense considering the Dolphins are anemic offensively.”

One game receiving an upward tick is the Cleveland-Houston matchup and Cooley believes it’s a combination of factors. He explained, “Houston losing two of its three best defensive players as well as the Houston offense. With Watson under center, that thing is humming, and Bill O’Brien is doing a great job calling plays.”

Along with taking a position on the Browns-Texans ‘over’ on Sunday, the guys behind the BookMaker.eu counter have large liabilities on three ‘under’ wagers - Green Bay at Minnesota, L.A. Rams at Jacksonville, N.Y. Giants at Denver.

Hit the Road

As I’ve written before on VegasInsider.com, the goal of the site is to inform our users with entertaining content and hopefully that will help win your wagers. I enjoy the science behind sports betting and really appreciate when I receive trends, angles and systems from users that help my own personal wagering.

With that being said, here’s an angle that was brought to my attention from an individual back in 2008 and I’ve been posting since I started writing the weekly ‘Total Talk’ pieces.

Play the ‘over’ in any game when the visitor is playing their third consecutive road game

According to long-time VI user and total enthusiast B. Kelly, the system has watched the ‘over’ go 41-20-1 (65%) the last 12 seasons.

It has tempered off a bit but it did go 2-1 last season and I’m including the Giants-Packers ‘over’ in the playoffs when New York was playing its third consecutive road game. I’ve never included the Super Bowl and the above records also leave out the ‘International’ outcomes or this could’ve been in play last week with Jacksonville (London, at Jets, at Steelers).

This week, San Francisco will be playing at Washington and it is the third straight road game for the 49ers after playing at the Cardinals and Colts. The 49ers lost both of those games in overtime by exactly three points and are listed as 10½-point underdogs in this spot.

Including this week’s matchup, we have six other games this season that fit the above angle.

Off the Bye

We’ve got four squads playing with rest this week and all of them are listed as home favorites.

New Orleans: If you like to follow trends, you could be leaning to the Saints offense and the high side this Sunday. New Orleans has gone 5-0 both SU and ATS in its last five games off a bye at home and the offense has averaged 41.4 points per game during that span. Also, the ‘over’ is on an 11-4 run for the Saints in the last 15 from the Superdome. Make a note that Detroit stifled New Orleans 28-13 at this venue last season and they also beat them in 2015 (35-27) in the ‘Big Easy’ and from Ford Field in 2014 (24-23) too. Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford (leg) is listed as ‘probable’ as of Saturday.

Atlanta: Since QB Matt Ryan arrived in 2008, the Falcons have gone 7-2 off the bye in the regular season and the offense has averaged 29.4 PPG in those contests. Atlanta has watched the ‘over’ go 11-1 in its last 12 at home. Miami has watched all four of its games go ‘under’ and the offense has only managed to score three touchdowns this season.

Washington: Since head coach Jay Gruden arrived in the nation’s capital, the Redskins have gone 1-2 off the bye and the ‘under’ is 2-1 in those games.

Denver: The Broncos dropped a 30-27 decision at home to the Chiefs last season but had won their six previous games off the bye. Last year’s result could be an anomaly with Denver holding teams to 18 PPG in those victories.

The four teams on bye in Week 6 include Buffalo, Cincinnati, Dallas and Seattle.

Divisional Action

The ‘under’ went 2-0 in these matchups last week and the low side is 16-7 (69%) through five weeks.

New England at N.Y. Jets: Even though the Patriots have had trouble scoring (22, 20, 17) in their last three trips to New York, they still have a potent attack when clicking and the Jets are ranked 25th in total defense (354 YPG). New England is ranked last in total defense (447 YPG) but this will be the weakest offense that they’ve faced to date this season. The ‘under’ went 2-0 in last year’s encounters. New York has seen the ‘under’ go 3-2 this season while New England watched its perfect ‘over’ mark (4-1) come to an end last Thursday in Tampa Bay.

Green Bay at Minnesota: The Packers lit up the Vikings 38-25 at home last season and the ‘over’ (44½) connected easily but the previous four outcomes resulted in ‘under’ tickets. Green Bay and Minnesota both enter this game with 4-1 ‘over’ records. The Vikings will be playing on a short week after beating the Bears on MNF and Minnesota has only scored a combined 16 points (9, 7) off its first two wins this season. QB Case Keenum gets the start for Minnesota but not having WR Stefon Diggs won’t help his numbers.

L.A. Chargers at Oakland: This series has seen the totals produce a stalemate (3-3) the last three seasons. No early number was posted due to the status of Raiders QB Derek Carr (back) but a few reports have him starting. The Chargers are ranked last in rushing yards allowed (161.2) and I would expect Oakland to attack that weakness Sunday.

Indianapolis at Tennessee: (See Below)

Under the Lights

The ‘under’ went 2-1 in the primetime games last week and we might be looking at a couple more low-scoring games this weekend. Including this past Thursday’s result between the Eagles and Panthers, the ‘over’ is 10-7 in the night contests this season.

N.Y. Giants at Denver: This total has dropped nearly two points at every betting shop and I really hope you win your early wagers on Sunday so you don’t have to chase on this matchup. The Giants are decimated on both sides of the field and I don’t see how the offense is going to move the ball against a Denver defense that is ranked first in yards allowed (260.8 ) and seventh in scoring (18.5 PPG). The Broncos should get extra possessions in this matchup but the offense (16 PPG) hasn’t looked sharp in their last two games.

Indianapolis at Tennessee: This is another game where you might want to sit out. Titans QB Marcus Mariota (hamstring) missed last week and his status is up in the air again. The ‘over’ has gone 3-1 in the last four meetings between the pair and the Titans scored 33, 24 and 26 with Mariota and 17 without him. Make a note that the Colts (2-3) haven’t won back-to-back games this season and are averaging 13.3 PPG in their losses compared to 28.5 PPG in the wins.

Fearless Predictions

Caught more than a few breaks last week and sometimes that’s what it takes to get on the right track. With that effort ($190) we slightly trimmed the overall deficit ($270) on the season. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Tampa Bay-Arizona 45½

Best Under: Green Bay-Minnesota 44½

Best Team Total: New Orleans Over 26

Three-Team Total Teaser (8.5-Point, +100)

New England-N.Y. Jets Over 38½
Pittsburgh-Kansas City Under 55½
N.Y. Giants-Denver Under 48

Week 6 Betting Tidbits
Covers,com

Chicago Bears at Baltimore Ravens (-6.5, 39.5)

Bears quarterback Mitch Trubisky is trying to become only the second rookie quarterback to win on the road against the Baltimore Ravens according to ESPN Stats & Information. Teams starting a rookie under center and playing at Baltimore are 1-14 straight up and – just in case you needed to know oddsmakers are good at their job – 7-7-1 against the spread since the franchise moved from Cleveland.

Sportsbooks have the Ravens around -280 on the moneyline if you just want to bet on them to win outright.

LINE HISTORY: A few shops opened with the Ravens as touchdown favorites although now it’s pretty much 6.5 across the board. The total opened as high as 41.5 and was bet down to 39.5.

TRENDS:

*The Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against teams with winning records.
*The Under is 6-2 in the Ravens’ last eight home games.

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (+3, 46.5)

Did the revolving door at the running back position finally find a potential star? The same jukebox offense that’s churned through Eddie Lacey, James Starks and most recently Ty Montgomery spat out Aaron Jones as the start in the backfield last weekend.

Jones proved elusive and picked up 125 carries and a TD run on just 19 carries against the Dallas Cowboys. Is Jones a flash in the pan or the real deal? Montgomery is still nursing a couple broken ribs, so bettors should get a clearer picture of Jones’ effect on Green Bay’s offense against the Vikings.

LINE HISTORY: The Packers opened as 3-point road chalk but there were some locations throwing the hook half point. There are 3s and 3.5s on the board now with plus juice varying on both numbers.

TRENDS:

*The Packers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games.
*The Vikings are 24-8 ATS in their last 32 home games.
*The Over is 15-3 in the Packers last 18 games overall.

Miami Dolphins at Atlanta Falcons (-11.5, 46)

Miami quarterback Jay Cutler isn’t passing the eye test or stat test in his performance four games into the Dolphins season. He’s in charge of an offense that last in total offense and scoring offense.

Football Outsiders’ DYAR (defense adjusted yards above replacement) places Cutler as the league’s second worst quarterback behind only the recently benched DeShone Kizer. Cutler ranks 31st in FO’s DVOA stat (defense adjusted value over average) with a -33.1 rating.

LINE HISTORY: The Falcons opened as 10-point favorites but the books now have them giving 12 points to the visiting Dolphins. The total has been bet down from 47 to 46.

TRENDS:

*The Under is 5-0 in the Dolphins’ last five games overall.
*The Over is 12-1 in the Falcons’ last 13 home games.

Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints (-5, 50)

Are the Saints as good as their 2-2 record indicates or are they just benefited from unprecedented luck when it comes to turnovers? New Orleans has four takeaways through its first four games but the really crazy thing is the club has yet to turn the ball over. If they don’t cough the ball up against the Lions, the Saints will become the first team in NFL history to play five games without turning the ball over once.

LINE HISTORY: This spread been all over the place - with it as low as 3.5 in Vegas and as high as 6 offshore. Most shops are dealing Saints -5 with a 50-point over/under line.

TRENDS:

*The Saints are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games coming off their bye week.
*The Over is 6-1 in the Saints last seven games overall.

Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans (-9.5, 47)

Cleveland Browns 2.0 has been around since 1999. In that time the team has started 27 different dudes under center. On Sunday, Kevin Hogan becomes No. 28. The Browns are 2-3 ATS and 0-5 SU in the last five games they’ve started a different quarterback than the game prior.

Remember, the Browns could have drafted Texans rookie QB Deshaun Watson in last year’s trade. Hindsight is 20/20, I guess.

LINE HISTORY: The line opened as low as 9.5 and has gone as high as 10.5 but seems to be settling on Texans -10. The total has been bet up from 44.5 to 47.

TRENDS:

*Cleveland is 6-24-1 ATS in its last 31 games overall.
*The Over is 5-2 in Houston’s last seven games.

San Francisco 49ers at Washington Redskins (-11, 46.5)

The playoffs were never a realistic expectation or goal for the 49ers this season and at 0-5 it appears the club is switching out some of the proven veterans and handing those snaps to younger players. Running back Carlos Hyde appears to be in danger of losing his claim to the No. 1 spot on the running back depth chart to undrafted rookie Matt Breida out of Georgia Southern, and linebacker NaVorro Bowman being spelled often by Brock Coyle.

Do the younger players give the Niners a better chance at winning games now – or is this just a way of evaluating their talent level?

LINE HISTORY: Washington hoped as 9.5-point home chalk but the line has been bet up to 11. The total is holding steady at 46.5.

TRENDS:

*The Under is 4-0 in Washington’s last four home games.
*San Francisco is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games overall.

New England Patriots at New York Jets (+9.5, 47.5)

The Patriots have owned the AFC East in winning the division crown eight straight years and in 13 of the last 14 seasons. That said, some of the teams in the division have a knack for covering the spread against the big bully in their division.

The Jets are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight matchups against Tom Brady and Bill Belichick’s boys.

LINE HISTORY: The line has stayed steady at 9.5 but there are a few shops dealing Pats -10. The total is holding at 47.5.

TRENDS:

*The Over is 8-1 in the Pats last nine games overall.
*New England is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 road games.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Arizona Cardinals (+1.5, 45)

The Cardinals are taking a third grab from the name-running-backs past-their-prime bin. Emmitt Smith and Edgerrin James were both brought in to Arizona last decade on the downslope of their careers. Adrian Peterson is the latest after ‘Zona acquired the former All-Pro RB in a trade with the New Orleans Saints.

Kent Somers of the Azcentral Sports says this time is different because there are no ulterior motives in the move like there were when the team signed Smith and James, and there was a need to increase fan interest.

Either way, Bruce Arians offense likes a running back that can be a positive in the passing attack – both as a receiving target and as an extra blocker. Those are two skills Peterson hasn’t done well during his 11-year career.

LINE HISTORY: The Cards opened as 2-point home dogs but most books now list them as 1.5-point pups. The total opened at 44 and has been bet up to 45.

TRENDS:

*The Bucs are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.
*The Cards are 6-18 ATS in their last 24 games overall.
*The Under is 13-3 in the Cards’ last 16 home games.

Los Angeles Rams at Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5, 42.5)

The Rams have a young quarterback in Jared Goff who appears to have taken a giant leap in his development in his sophomore season. The Jaguars, though, have a secondary that’s making minced meat out of NFL quarterbacks.

Opposing quarterbacks share a 56.9 passing rating when playing Jacksonville this season. The only three teams (’03 Pats, ’02 Bucs, ’96 Packers) who have allowed a passer rating in that neighborhood all went on to win the Super Bowl according to NFL Research.

LINE HISTORY: The line has held tight at Jags -2.5 all week with a little extra juice on the Jags to keep the spread from going up to the key number (3). The total opened at 43.5 and has been bet down to 42.5.

TRENDS:

*The Rams are 2-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games overall.
*The Jags are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs (-4, 47)

There aren’t many NFL players who would be happy to see the Kansas City Chiefs as their next opponent on the schedule, but that’s the case for Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. Fresh off a five-interception game last week, Big Ben can be confident heading into Arrowhead Stadium thanks to a 118.7 passer rating in seven career games against the Chiefs.

LINE HISTORY: The spread opened as small as 3.5 and was bet as high as 5 but seems to be settling at 4.5. Many books are at 46 for the total, however, there are a few dealing 47.

TRENDS:

*The Chiefs are the league’s lone undefeated ATS team this season at 5-0.
*The Steelers are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games following an outright loss.

New York Giants at Denver Broncos (-11.5, 39)

It might be a good idea to place a bet on Ben McAdoo if you can find odds on first NFL coach to be fired. The Giants 0-5 suspended defensive back Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie for what appears to be insubordination and the players aren’t lining up to vouch for their head coach.

The G-Men are missing three of their top receivers and are playing against one of the best defenses in the league. NBC executives must be busy negotiating an early start to the flex schedule for Sunday Night Football to keep teams like the Giants out of primetime.

LINE HISTORY: The Broncos opened as 10-point home faves and were bet up to as high as 13-point chalk. The line has come back down to 12 at most shops. The total opened at 40.5 and has come down to 39 or 39.5.

TRENDS:

*The Broncos are 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 games following a bye week.
*The Under is 5-1 in the Giants’ last six games vs. teams with winning records.

Vegas Money Moves - Week 6
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

The New York Giants faithful were optimistic coming into the season and 25/1 Super Bowl odds showed some respect from Las Vegas sports books, but things have gotten ugly fast, as in being winless and a 12-point underdog at the Denver Broncos on Sunday night. It's the largest spread against the Giants since the 2007 season when New England was -12 in the Super Bowl.

"Yeah, we're being real careful with the game," said CG Technology VP of risk management Jason Simbal. "Sharps laid it all the way from -10 at full limits multiple times. because it's the night game and so one-sided with action already -- we have not had one straight bet on the Giants -- it's going to end up being our biggest decision of the day."

Not one straight bet across seven CG books in Las Vegas?

That is insane. Not even a simple fan coming to the window not knowing the situation and why the spread is so high, which is the Giants top-4 wide-receivers all declared 'out' for Sunday, including Odell Beckham Jr. who is worth 1.5-points to the number himself.

"I've never seen an entire receiving unit all go out at once like happened earlier this week," Simbal said.

It seems like an impossible situation for the Giants, who will also be without running back Paul Perkins, defensive end Olivier Vernon and corner-back Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. But something to keep note of before running to make a wager on the Broncos laying whatever it rises to is that the sports books win more of these one-sided bet games than they lose. Could we possibly hear NBC's Al Michaels say "Do you believe in miracles" again. The Giants are plus-500 on the money-line (Bet $100 to win $500).

The Broncos decision is going to be the whopper on the day, but how high the extended parlay and teaser risk goes depends on what happens in a few of the key games earlier on Sunday when those results are posted.

"The big public sides earlier in the day are the Falcons and and Packers, which doesn't come as a surprise," he said. "We've also had a sharp move on the 49ers at Washington."

CG books opened the Falcons as 9.5-point home favorites against the Dolphins and have seen the number jump to -13 (-105). They have the Packers as three-point road favorites at Minnesota and Washington -10.5 at home against the 49ers.

One of the more interesting games of the week is a matchup we would said yuk to just two months ago. But the Jaguars as 2.5-point home favorites against the Rams has some sizzle of enticement to watch on TV since they're both good squads now.

"So far sharps are on the Rams and squares are on the Jags," Simbal said, who also noted it's not the usual West Coast team traveling east thing because because it's a 1:05 p.m. PT start time.

However, the most wagered upon afternoon game is a rematch from last season's playoffs when the Steelers travel to undefeated Kansas City.

"The public is on the Chiefs, but our line is going the other way," said Simbal. "We even had a house player lay big money at -4.5 on the Chiefs, but sharp action with far less action took the Steelers making us drop it to -4."

Yep, you have to respect the sharper action despite being weighted the other way. The public is now loving the Chiefs who have covered all five games while they're hating the Steelers because of getting beat 30-9 at home by the Jaguars. The Steelers won 18-16 at Arrowhead Stadium in the playoffs last year and also earned a 43-14 blowout win in the regular season from Heinz Field.

The sports books nightmare four-team parlay that will send them to a losing day is Atlanta, Green Bay, Kansas City and then Denver all covering. The books wish is to get a couple of those favorites at -9.5 or higher lose outright to beat out the big money-line parlays or get under the teaser threshold to eliminate that risk. They could also use a Vikings and Steelers stright up win.