Free Picks for Saturday, October 14th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
Harry Bondi
NORTHERN ILLINOIS (-3.5) over Buffalo
Northern Illinois is a profitable 11-3 ATS in their last 14 road games and since 1992 they are 71-41 (63%) ATS away from home. What’s more, Northern Illinois has covered 11 of its last 16 in conference play and has absolutely dominated Buffalo, winning nine in a row in the series straight up while covering seven of those games. Northern Illinois has topped the 40-point plateau in the last three meetings against Buffalo, including an easy 44-7 victory last season at home as a 24-point favorite. Making matters worse for the Bills is that they come in off a gut-wrenching 71-68 loss to Western Michigan in a game that featured seven overtime sessions. The Bills defense allowed 645 yards of total offense in that game and is battered and bruised coming into this week’s game. Look for the physical Huskies to pound away at a tired Buffalo team and come home with another road win.
killer whale round table GOY - OHIO ST. - 24
Dennis Macklin
Virginia vs. North Carolina
Play: Virginia -3½
Props to former BYU ringmaster Bronco Mendenhall who has done a great job turning this downtrodden Wahoo program around. Virginia is 4-1 and comes off a nice win over a pretty good Duke team. UVa QB Benkert is a fiery fearless type and can throw the ball around (12 TDs) with anyone. North Carolina is in a 1-5 SU and ATS freefall that doesn't figure to get much better with Miami and V Tech on deck. Frosh QB Surrat is going to be good but is not getting much help as the Heels are finding life without Mitch Trubisky is not all that it's cracked up to be. Take Virginia.
Jesse Schule
TCU vs. Kansas St
Play: Under 54
The Horned Frogs come into Manhattan with a 5-0 record, and a vastly improved defense since losing 30-6 here in Kansas last year. The Wildcats are always tough defensively at home at Bill Snyder Stadium, especially in October in bad weather. The forecast is calling for rain and wind this Saturday, and that might force both teams to lean heavily on the ground game. TCU has failed to reach the total in each of it's last four games during the month of October, and the under is 4-1 in their last five versus BIG12 teams. Last week the Horned Frogs allowed just three points in the first half versus West Virginia, and I expect another solid effort from the TCU defense this week.
Doc's Sports
Missouri vs. Georgia
Play: Missouri +31
The Tigers offense finally came to life last week putting up 568 yards and 34 points in a losing effort against Kentucky. Georgia is for real this season but they are a more defensive team and does not have an explosive offense that can put up a ton of points week in week out. If Missouri does not allow the Bulldogs to score points on defense or special teams they should be able to cover this huge number. We used Oregon State last week as a free pick and this fits into the same category. Just do not see Georgia getting all that excited to blowout Missouri at home.
Raphael Esparza
Illinois (-2.5) over Rutgers
Memorial Stadium on Saturday early afternoon should see a home team 'W', and I see Illinois getting a much-needed conference win here. Last year Rutgers lost to the Illini at home 24-7, and I see the Scarlet Knights dropping back-to-back meetings to the Fighting Illini. Both teams come into this game struggling, but with Illinois getting this game at home I see them getting revenge after their last home game when Nebraska held them to 6 points. Rutgers is coming off a beat down two weeks ago to Ohio State 56-0, and I know Rutgers is coming off a bye week, but playing this game on the road the Knights again will struggle. Rutgers is 3-8 ATS when playing a team with a losing record and the Scarlet Knights are 1-4 ATS against conference opponents.
Alan Harris
Texas Tech (+3.5) over West Virginia
The Texas Tech Red Raiders will look to move to 5-1 on the season when they hit the road to take on the West Virginia Mountaineers at Mountaineer Field in Morgantown, WV, on Saturday afternoon. The Red Raiders have posted a perfect 4-0 ATS record in their last four games following an ATS win, and they are also a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six games where they faced a team with a winning record. They have also covered the number in five of their last six road games and they are an impressive 9-3 ATS in their last twelve games following a straight up win by 20 points or more. The Mountaineers, on the other hand, have struggled a bit in the spot they are in here on Saturday as they have gone just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up loss and they are just 5-14 ATS in their last 19 versus a team with a winning % of .500 or higher. They have also failed to cover the number in 13 of their last 18 games played in the month of October for whatever reason, and they are an awful 6-21 ATS in their last 27 home games when facing a team with a winning record on the road. Throw in the fact that Texas Tech has gone 4-1 ATS in the last five head-to-head meetings between the two schools and we're going to take the points with them here in a game that we think they have a good chance to win outright in Morgantown on Saturday afternoon.
Jason Sharpe
Pittsburgh (+12) over North Carolina State
The N.C. State Wolfpack have rattled off 5 straight wins coming into this game, with victories over the likes of Florida State and a nice win over Louisville last Thursday. Tough spot here, though, going on the road and facing a hungry Pittsburgh squad in this one. The Panthers have struggled a little bit this season as they lost a ton of players off last year's squad. They have been tough at home of late, having won 8 of their last 10 games there, and should be able to keep things close in this one. Take Pittsburgh plus the points.
Robert Ferringo
Kansas (+21) over Iowa State
This Big 12 game looks to be a quintessential letdown spot for the Cyclones. They pulled a stunning upset last week over the Sooners, winning on the road as a 31-point underdog. Now they have to turn around and dress up as a three-touchdown favorite against a pathetic Kansas squad. Iowa State only beat the Jayhawks by a touchdown last year, and the underdog has been solid in this series, going 6-3 ATS the last nine times they faced off. Iowa State is on a 4-1 ATS run and Kansas on a 1-4 ATS slide, so it is easy to see which side the public is going to back. But this spread has slowly crept down since its open. I do think that Iowa State is going to rack up another win here and keep building momentum. But I think that Kansas will be able to do enough in garbage time to sneak in the back door.
Doc's Sports
Chicago (-150) over Nashville
Great situational spot to play the Blackhawks on Saturday as they host the Predators - the team that swept them in the first round of the playoffs last season. The Hawks were left with a terrible taste in their mouths after that series, and today's game was surely circled on the calendar. The Hawks retooled their roster in the off-season, and I really like the fact that they brought back Brandon Saad and Patrick Sharp. Those two guys fit perfectly with this team, and they never should have let them go in the first place. The Predators had some key losses over the summer, including the retirement of Mike Fisher. And people forget, while the Preds did make it all the way to the Stanley Cup Final, they barely made it into the postseason in the first place. As a result, I think they are a bit overrated heading into this season.
SPORTS WAGERS
Washington +140 over CHICAGO
The first thing to note here is that the strong gale-like winds that will be blowing in from center. The total of u7½ -120 combined with those strong winds means runs will be at a premium here, which also means that small-ball figures to play a major part. It is for that reason among a couple of others that we’ll side with the Nationals. Washington was fifth in the majors in stolen bases with 109 while Chicago was 24th with 62. Nats leadoff man Trea Turner turns singles into automatic doubles and if he can get on base, he’ll surely have Jake Arrieta thinking about more than just making his next pitch. The Cubbies have nobody that can do that type of damage on the base paths.
Speaking of Arrieta, entering September, it appeared that Arrieta had turned it around, recovering from a subpar first half to put up a 1.69 ERA in 11 starts in July and August, albeit with a 3.49 xERA. Then he tweaked his hamstring in a September 4 start against the Pirates and quickly went from sure thing to question mark. He has pitched twice since returning from the injury, with mixed results. The Cubs are hoping they get the Grade A version of Arrieta, or at least the version that can keep them in the game for six innings but we’re not so sure. His first-pitch strike rate over his last seven starts was a troublesome 51%. His swing and miss rate over that same span was 6%. The regression in Arrieta’s control is foretold by his very shaky first pitch strike rate, which gives it the look of a potentially chronic issue. His velocity has declined to a career-low in 2017 and these Nationals hitters are too good to be fooled by a pitcher in a major decline.
Tanner Roark does not have the same pedigree as Arrieta but he and the Nats are without question the value play here. Roark provided no value in the first half (5.27 ERA, 1.48 WHIP) but he totally changed course in the second half. After the break, Roark has been great with a 3.05/3.29 ERA/xERA split and a 1.09 WHIP. And his aggregate skills have nearly doubled: 9.8 K’s/9, 3.2 BB’s/9 and a 54% groundball rate. Over his last 32 frames, Roark has struck out 35 batters while walking nine.
There is no way to overstate the stakes for the Nationals. A win brings the series back to Washington with Strasburg (presumably) on the mound in a winner-take-all Game 5. A loss means yet another long winter of wondering what might have been. On paper, the Cubs have no advantages here with the wind blowing in or with Arrieta on the bump. With the Cubs’ offense generating a mere eight runs in the first three NLDS games, we’re merely playing the value and the advantages based on conditions and starting pitchers.
DAVE COKIN
SOUTH CAROLINA AT TENNESSEE
PLAY: SOUTH CAROLINA +3
No reason not to come right back with South Carolina after winning last week with the Gamecocks. That also means continuing to go against Tennessee.
The main conversation in Vols country right now is not whether Butch Jones will be back, but rather who will be replacing him. The media has basically already fired Jones.
Normally, I might expect a big effort from a team off a 41-0 home loss and a subsequent bye week to get things right. But the program is a mess, and I wonder if the time off might actually be an additional negative.
There appears to be no enthusiasm right now, and if Tennessee gets off to another bad start on Saturday, that massive crowd is going to turn on them in a big way.
South Carolina did everything right last week against Arkansas and I have to figure their mental state is vastly superior here. I’ll take the FG with the Gamecocks.
Mike Anthony
Florida St vs. Duke
Play: Duke +7
5.87 YPC senior RB, Shaun Wilson- can absolutely move the ball and create big plays on the field for Duke to get into great position on the field. If the Blue Devils pick up the important 1st downs and Wilson picks up his typical tough yards - there is just no possible way Florida State can beat this Duke team. Ball control and on the field leadership has been key for Duke and their running game. Just not 100% sure the sad offense of FSU is the most efficient way to try to scare Duke and their struggle to get points on the board has been proven. Defensive Coordinator, Charles Kelly will be forced into getting more out of their mediocre defenders to put more work into their defense than Kelly will feel comfortable doing trying to stop the backs of Duke. The Seminoles only have 1 win over the season - and it was a against a poor running Wake Forest. Blue Devils are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall. Duke pulls the upset here at home.
Big Al
Oklahoma vs. Texas
Pick:Oklahoma -7.5
Last week, the Sooners lost by 7 points, as a 31-point favorite, at home, to Iowa State. So, they failed to cover the pointspread by a whopping 38 points. But that exceptionally poor performance sets up our play on this Saturday And one of the things I like to do is play on College Football teams off an upset loss, in which they failed to cover the spread by 35 or more points. And if our team is playing an opponent off a straight-up and against-the-spread win, then our system has gone 63% ATS since 1980. That’s one reason I really like the Sooners to bounce back. Another is that Oklahoma has quietly dominated away from home in the regular season when it plays winning teams. It’s 22-5 straight up and 21-6 ATS in this situation, including a perfect 10-0 SU/ATS when priced from -3.5 to -10 points.