Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Sunday, October 1st, 2017

Doc's Sports

Bengals vs. Browns
Play: Browns +3½

The Browns were a rare road favorite last week in Indianapolis and they proved they were not up to the challenge getting down big earlier before making a late rally for the final score to look a little respectable. Now they are back as an underdog against a divisional opponent playing their second straight road game. Cincinnati played well last week at Green Bay but could not close out the game and they sit at a similar 0-3 record. Just feel this is the game Cleveland will put forth a great effort and get a game at home. Cleveland is 9-2 in their last 11 games played during week 4 of the regular season.

Allen Eastman

Denver (-3) over Oakland

The Raiders have not looked good on the road this season, and I think that they are going to struggle here against their division rival. The Broncos defense is dominating. Oakland looked terrible against the Redskins in primetime last week. I think it will be more of the same this week. Denver has really owned this series. The Broncos are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 against the Raiders and Denver is 4-1 ATS at home against Oakland. The favorite is 9-1 ATS the last 10 times that these two teams have faced off, and I like Denver's defense to dominate this one.

Strike Point Sports

New York Giants (+3) over Tampa Bay

The Tampa Bay defense hasn't looked that great, especially against the pass. Even with the loss the Giants offense seemed to get back on track with ODB Jr. looking solid. Look for the Giants to take advantage of numerous Tampa Bay injuries and to get over the 20-point mark for the second consecutive game. The Bucs haven't looked as good as people expected them to, and the Giants, being in a must-win game already, will take advantage. New York is 4-0-1 ATS in their last five trips to Tampa Bay and 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven matchups with the Bucs. Take the dog in this one as they win outright.

Doc's Sports

Cleveland (+3) over Cincinnati

The Browns were a rare road favorite last week in Indianapolis and they proved they were not up to the challenge getting down big earlier before making a late rally for the final score to look a little respectable. Now they are back as an underdog against a divisional opponent playing their second straight road game. Cincinnati played well last week at Green Bay but could not close out the game, and they sit at a similar 0-3 record. Just feel this is the game Cleveland will put forth a great effort and get a game at home. Cleveland is 9-2 in their last 11 games played during week 4 of the regular season. Do not miss out on Doc's Sports weekend football card. We have nailed our top play in both college and NFL two straight weeks. Sign-up now and let 46 years of handicapping experience work for you.

Randall The Handle

BEST BETS

Panthers (2-1) at Patriots (2-1)

It’s rare to find the public disenchanted with the Patriots, but after losing their opener and needing some final second heroics from Tom Brady to upend the Texans last week, the market is currently not so bullish on the champs. That’s OK. We don’t need others for validation. In the game we just mentioned, the Pats were as much as a 14-point favourite. They never came close to covering, but the line was based on Houston’s ineffective offence coming in and the Texans defence not being a concern against Brady and his offence. A week later, the Patriots are giving fewer than double-digits to a team that has a weaker offence than the Texans and a far less-imposing defence. Cam Newton can’t hit water from a boat right now with his team ranking 29th in scoring (15 PPG) and 30th in passing (168 yds. per game). Heck, he threw for only 167 yards versus the Saints last week along with three interceptions. Newton is also missing TE Greg Olsen and might be without wideout Kelvin Benjamin. A long afternoon awaits this guest. TAKING: PATRIOTS –9

Bills (2-1) at Falcons (3-0)

We’ve seen a number of instances this season when a team appears to be absolutely dreadful only to bounce back in its following game with an impressive win. The Bills were guilty of this after a clunker in Carolina two weeks ago only to return to Orchard Park and thoroughly whoop the high-flying Broncos. The question that arises for Buffalo and others is which team do you trust? We’re going to give the Bills the benefit of the doubt here. A new coaching staff has the defence playing very well, having allowed the fewest points in the NFL while Buffalo remains the only team that hasn’t allowed a passing touchdown this season. It won’t be easy maintaining that impressive stat against Matt Ryan and Co., but this is a lot of points to be handed to a top defence. Falcons could easily be 1-2 after very close calls with Chicago in the opener and a goal-line stop vs. the Lions last week. TAKING: BILLS +8

Eagles (2-1) at Chargers (0-3)

Beware of the better-than-lousy 0-3 teams. We all know the Chargers find inventive ways to lose, but we still have enough faith to expect a win on this day. Winless, the Bolts are home for the third week in a row. Even they would like to win for their NHL-attendance-sized fans. This is a good matchup for them. Protecting Carson Wentz will be a tough task for the Birds as the Chargers’ pass defence is allowing just 176 yards per game, good for fifth overall. That will put pressure on a mediocre ground game, and with Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram causing trouble in the interior, points may not be easy to come by for this visitor. There’s a fatigue factor for Eagles, who are flying west after a tough divisional matchup against the Giants in a game that required a 61-yard field goal as time ran out for a win. The Eagles are a poor travelling team, with just two covers in their previous nine road games. TAKING: CHARGERS -1

THE REST

Saints (1-2) vs. Dolphins (1-1) at London, England

Maybe this is some sort of disaster karma. Twelve years after Katrina nearly wiped out the city of New Orleans, the Dolphins find themselves in a terrible scheduling situation as a result of recent Hurricane Harvey. Miami was forced to reschedule its opening game and now find themselves on the road for the third week running. This excursion included a long flight to the west coast to face the Chargers, then a road game in New Jersey where the Fish were harpooned by the feeble Jets and now the Fins must swim across the pond to play in England. They’ll face a Saints squad that is feeling better about themselves after a dominant win in Carolina. Once unbeatable as hosts, the Saints have now covered 10 of their past 12 away from N’awlins. TAKING: SAINTS -3

Rams (2-1) at Cowboys (2-1)

We’re just as shocked as you are that the Rams are the highest-scoring team in the NFL, racking up an average of 35.7 points per game. But scoring 87 of those points against bottom-dwelling Colts and 49ers does raise some doubts. Now the Rams will have to venture to Dallas and prove the outburst under their new head coach is not a fluke. Los Angeles may have to do this without the services of two key receivers, as both Tavon Austin and Sammy Watkins are in concussion protocol. Without those guys, seemingly improved QB Jared Goff could be under the gun, especially when Cowboys’ NFL-leading sack man Demarcus Lawrence is chasing after him. Scheduling quirk here favours Rams with 10 days rest versus ’Boys on short week, but not enough to tip scale L.A.’s way. TAKING: COWBOYS -6

Titans (2-1) at Texans (1-2)

AFC South shaping up as interesting battleground as a Houston win could see a three-way tie atop the division with a trio of ascending teams. Both of these teams drew the public’s attention last week as Titans manhandled the Seahawks while the Texans nearly pulled off a gargantuan upset in New England. Houston’s rookie QB Deshaun Watson was outstanding in just second career start, completing 22-of-33 for 301 yards and two touchdowns while rushing for 41 yards. Titans off to impressive start, but still feel they are unworthy of being a road favourite at a stadium where they’ve dropped five of previous six and where they will face a team suddenly excited about the quarterback position after a long drought. Divisional road faves have been draining bankrolls this season and it could continue in this one. TAKING: TEXANS +1½

Jacksonville (2-1) at N.Y. Jets (1-2)

Don’t overthink this one. The Jets are still an awful football team despite win over comatose Dolphins last week. If anything, that victory by this New York team will at least have the Jaguars paying attention and that should spell trouble for the hosts. Jacksonville was dominant in its victory last week over Baltimore. It finds itself tied atop its division and games like this are must-haves if Jacksonville wants to get back on the football map. No reason to believe they fail here as Jags have been good on both sides of the ball, ranking fourth in scoring at 29 points a game while its defence is even better, allowing second-fewest yards per game and third-fewest points. Expect the Jets to come in for a landing after soaring a week ago. TAKING: JAGUARS -3

Bengals (0-3) at Cleveland (0-3)

At least Ohio has the Indians. One of the state’s two pro football teams will earn its first win here and we doubt it will be the Browns. While there was hope for Cleveland to improve this season, it appears to be the same old. Talent level might have upgraded slightly, but Brownies continually find ways to lose (currently on 1-22 run), even to lowly Colts last week. Cincinnati played a much better game last week, battling Green Bay before succumbing in overtime at Lambeau. The Bengals have feasted on their division rival, winning five straight with previous two on this field by an average of 23.5 points. Cleveland can’t run the ball and forcing rookie QB to have to throw is frightening. Browns are simply to be avoided at short prices such as this. TAKING: BENGALS -3

Steelers (2-1) at Ravens (2-1)

Baltimore’s credibility was put to the test last week and the result was a colossal failure. Ravens opened the year with two wins, but that was against Cincinnati and Cleveland respectively, two teams that are a combined 0-6. When facing a moderately better team than the weak division mates, the Blackbirds were hammered 44-7 by the Jaguars. Sure, it’s only one game, and we all know how things can change from week to week, but there is no denying Baltimore’s void of offensive playmakers. It won’t bode well for them in this one. Steelers’ fierce front-seven figure to put unrelenting pressure on the league’s 32nd-ranked passing team. Steelers rarely lose back-to-back contests and they are smarting after loss in Chicago last week. Pittsburgh had also won five straight road games before setback in Chitown. TAKING: STEELERS -3

Giants (0-3) at Buccaneers (1-1)

Tampa Bay returns home after weak showing in Minnesota last week and will do so without the services of two fine linebackers as both Lavonte David and Kwon Alexander are expected to sit this one out after injuries in Minny. Not sure if that’s enough to help a struggling Giants squad that has yet to win and has some very transparent issues. It’s not news that the G-Men can’t run the football, currently dead-last in the league with an average of just 48.7 rushing yards per game. That forces Eli Manning and his suspect protection to have to throw the ball. While he has good receivers, NFL defences are too shrewd at stopping one-dimensional teams. The Bucs have talent and we’ve seen flashes of it, but it’s inconsistent. On this day, we expect to see the bright side. TAKING: BUCCANEERS -3

49ers (0-3) at Cardinals (1-2)

We could flip-flop on this one all day as neither side is very appealing. The 49ers don’t travel well having lost nine of past 10 away games while the Cardinals are down on everyone’s list after covering just three of past 13 games. It does help San Fran’s cause that like the Rams, they will face a team playing on six days rest compared to the 10 days allotted to them by the league’s schedulers. Still, prefer Arizona as they will have some key guys returning from injuries which include left tackle D.J. Humphries, left guard Mike Iupati and swift receiver John Brown. The Cardinals have had trouble in the red zone without those guys in the lineup, but things should improve with their return. Cards have won four straight in this series. TAKING: CARDINALS -6½

Raiders (2-1) at Broncos (2-1)

Definitely the most exciting matchup on a lackluster card this week with the AFC West appearing to be a three-horse race and two of the combatants squaring off here. While the game is a toss-up with Denver’s strong defence attempting to hold off Oakland’s formidable offence, we prefer to back the Raiders in the underdog role. Silver and Black are 9-2 versus spread when accepting any points offered including the one time this season when receiving 2½-points in Tennessee (Oakland winning outright). Raiders also own stellar road mark with 13 covers in past 16 away. QB Derek Carr has defeated this division rival in previous two times he’s faced the Broncos defence, including a 30-20 win in Oakland last season, proving that he can put up points on Denver’s top-rated stop unit. TAKING: BRONCOS +3

Colts (1-2) at Seahawks (1-2)

Tough to give away 13 points with a team scoring just 16 points per game. Even tougher is endorsing the Colts at this venue. Seattle’s defence, although not what it used to be, is still very capable of holding inexperienced Jacoby Brissett to limited offence. Indy has a poor ground game with over-the-hill RB Frank Gore leading the team with just 48 yards rushing per game. That’s going to force Brissett to the air, where only T.Y. Hilton is any threat and Seattle is very capable of shutting down any one guy. Let’s not forget that Indianapolis’ backup QB has just one touchdown pass in his short career (119 pass attempts) and they aren’t easy to come by here. Seahawks not afraid of being double-digit faves after covering 9-of-13 when spotting 10 or more. TAKING: SEAHAWKS -13

Redskins (1-1) at Chiefs (3-0)

Difficult to fade the Chiefs right now as they are doing everything right while being a money machine for their backers. Kansas City has failed to cover just twice in past 15 regular-season games. Now they take on a visitor that is being asked to compete against the Raiders and this host in back-to-back weeks. While the Redskins can be commended for their stellar play thus far, this will be toughest defensive team they will have faced with K.C. having allowed just two of previous eight opponents to exceed 20 points. Offensively, no one is in more of a groove than Kansas City QB Alex Smith. Smith owns a league-leading 132.7 passer rating while tied for second with seven TD throw and zero interceptions. TAKING: CHIEFS -7

Dr Bob

New Orleans Saints vs Miami Dolphins

Lean – New Orleans (-2.5/-3) over Miami (London)

The Dolphins have had a brutal travel schedule to start the season. After enduring Hurricane Irma caused them to cancel their first game, Miami has traveled to Los Angeles, then New York, and now London. The Dolphins have played poorly in their first two games and rank as the worst team in my metrics. The new offense with Jay Cutler at quarterback has only gained 4.3 yppl compared to their 5.8 yppl last season with Ryan Tannehill.

The Saints have relied on their air attack, per usual, and my numbers have their pass offense ranked 8th, a ranking that could improve this week going against the Dolphin’s 30th ranked pass defense. However, New Orleans’ defense is even worse than Miami’s, as the Saints still rank last in the league according to my metrics even after holding Carolina to 13 points last week.

My model suggests that the true line on this game should be New Orleans by 4½ points and there is value on the Saints here against a Dolphins team possibly suffering from travel fatigue.

Carolina Panthers @ New England Patriots

Despite starting 2-1, the Patriots have been a below average team thus far, ranking 21st in my metrics just using 2017 data. However, the Patriots have a strong tendency to right themselves when they are not playing well. In fact, the Patriots are 29-5-2 ATS if they enter a game with a losing pointspread record and are not laying more than 9 points.

Cam Newton is following up the worst year of his career with an even worse year and he was pulled at the end of last week’s game after throwing 3 interceptions. To make matters worse for the Panthers passing game, they’ll be without TE Greg Olsen and maybe WR Kelvin Benjamin for this game. Carolina may need Newton to use his feet and I expect them to rely on their 10th ranked rushing offense this week against a Patriots rush defense that ranks 29th in my numbers. Carolina’s only strength is their defense, which is very good. However, New England is relatively better against better defensive teams, which they showed against in last week’s 36-33 win over a Texans’ team with a good defense. I don’t see any value here with either side.

Los Angeles Rams @ Dallas Cowboys

Lean – Over (47.5) – DALLAS (-6) vs Los Angeles Rams

The Cowboys took control in the second half of Monday night’s game in Arizona with quarterback Dak Prescott leading the way by averaging 9.2 yards per pass play. After allowing the Cardinals offense 144 yards on their first two drives, the Dallas defense settled in and Arizona finished the game with only 4.4 yppl. The Cowboys defense will need to continue playing well against a Rams offense ranked 3rd in my numbers.

Los Angeles topped 40 points for the second time in three games last week in San Francisco. While Todd Gurley stole the headlines with 3 touchdowns, Jared Goff’s passing attack has been the reason for the offensive success. Sean McVay’s Rams rank first in passing through three games after having the worst pass attack in the leauge a season ago based on my metrics. Los Angeles’ improved offensive line, led by a new left tackle, 3-time Pro-Bowler Andrew Whitworth, has given Goff much more time this season, which has allowed him to look downfield more often. The offensive system is also a better fit for Goff, who is 2nd to only Tom Brady this season in yards from passes 20+ yards downfield. Goff throws a very accurate deep ball, just as he did in college, and this season he has time to wait for those plays down the field to develop.

I saw some value on the Rams when the line was 7 and higher but that value is now gone. However, this game does apply to a 66-28-4 Over situation and I’ll lean with the Over based on that.

Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings

It seemed like Detroit had beaten Atlanta before the Lions’ last-second touchdown was overturned. However, according to my numbers, the game shouldn’t have been nearly as close, as the Falcons outgained Detroit 6.6 yppl to 4.9 yppl. It was the 3 interceptions thrown by Matt Ryan, one returned for a Lions’ touchdown, that kept Detroit in the game.

The Lions are 7th in scoring this season but their offense ranks 26th in my ratings. Detroit has been lucky to have a return touchdown in all 3 games and the offense has benefited from short fields resulting from their 8 takeaways (2nd in NFL). In fact, the Lions offense only has 4 drives longer than 60 yards this season – only Dallas and Tampa Bay have fewer and the Buccaneers, obviously, have played one less game.

Case Keenum and the Vikings offense deservedly got all the headlines in last week’s victory against Tampa, but the defense might be an issue going forward. Minnesota’s defense has surrendered 5.7 yppl this season (26th in NFL) and have been fortunate to hold opponents to a 27% 3rd down conversion rate – a number that will surely regress towards the mean. The Vikings are particularly poor against the pass and face a Lions team with one of the highest expected pass/run ratios in the league (the Lions only trail New Orleans in pass/run ratio since the start of 2015). I have no opinion on this game.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ New York Jets

Both of these teams are coming off impressive wins in which they outgained their opponents by 2 yards per play. The Jets and Jaguars defenses turned in the top two performances of week 3 and that is reflected in the lowest total of week 4 (39.5 points). Furthermore, both of these defenses have been unlucky to give up touchdowns on more than 70% of their opponents’ Redzone opportunities.

Interestingly, the Jaguars defense ranks first against the pass and last against the run this season. The Jets ground game hasn’t been very impressive this so far this season – my numbers have them ranked 20th – but it could be a nice week for Bilal Powell and company if the Jets stay in the game. New York actually applies to a good week 4 situation, as teams that lost their first two games of the season tend to get a morale boost after winning in week 3. In fact, dogs of more than 1 point are 49-17-3 ATS since 1980 in game 4 after getting their first win the previous week. Unfortunately, my model projects the fair line on this game at Jacksonville by 5 points and I have no opinion.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens played poorly on both sides of the ball and will be pleased to get home after a tough trip to London. Last week, I wrote about the Ravens’ potential regression defensively due to their luck in the Redzone and on 3rd downs and the Jaguars put up 44 points on them. The offense didn’t fare any better as Joe Flacco was pulled after only managing 28 yards passing. It won’t get any easier this week against a Steelers pass defense that ranks 2nd according to my metrics.

Pittsburgh lost in overtime as 7-point favorites to Chicago and most are blaming the offense – but the truth is the Steelers were unlucky to lose a fumble in Chicago territory and to have a short field goal blocked at the end of the first half. Pittsburgh’s offense has also been unfortunate to convert only 32% of their 3rd downs this season and I expect their conversion percentage to raise moving forward given that the Steelers converted 43% of 3rd downs in 2016.

The line on this game is fair, as my model also pegs Pittsburgh by 3 points as the fair line. A 94-44 ATS blowout bounce-back situation would apply if the line goes up to 3½ points and I’d lean with Baltimore at +3½ points or more.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Los Angeles Chargers

Lean – Philadelphia (+1.5) over LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

After heart-breaking close losses in each of the first two weeks, the Chargers fell to 0-3 with their two touchdown loss to the Chiefs. However, that game was closer than the score suggests, as a -3 turnover margin was what led to the big margin of defeat. Away fans in Los Angeles have nearly matched Chargers fans in the first two home games and it seems they may have a bit less of a home-field advantage than the rest of the league, which is something that we’ll keep an eye on going forward.

The Eagles won last week on a game-winning 61-yard field goal but were outplayed as the Giants out-gained Philly by 1.7 yards per play. Philadelphia has depended on their 6th ranked rushing attack and they have a favorable matchup this week going against the Chargers 26th ranked rush defense. My model favors Philadelphia by 1 point and the line has moved enough to supply some value on the Eagles.

San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals

Lean – Over (44.5) – ARIZONA (-6.5) vs San Francisco (lean SF at +7 or more)

San Francisco exploded for 39 points last Thursday night after not reaching double digits in the first two weeks but the Niners’ offense still ranks 29th in my ratings – although I do expect that unit to improve as they get more acclimated to the system. The 49ers have been a better team defensively this season (22nd in NFL) and they’ve actually been unfortunate allowing opponents to convert on more than half of 3rd downs. I expect San Francisco to get more 3rd down stops moving forward, which will help their fortunes.

Injuries have ravaged Arizona’s offense and they’ll have to rely on their defense in this one. It’s a good matchup for the Cardinals because the 49ers need to run the ball to be successful and Arizona ranks 10th in rush defense based on my numbers while not having allowed an opponent to rush for 100 yards this season. The Cardinals defense have been unlucky in having their opponents score touchdowns in 7 of 8 Redzone opportunities this season and I expect their Redzone defense to improve moving forward.

I’ll lean with the Over based on a 66-28-4 Over situation and I’d lean with San Francisco at +7 points or more.

Indianapolis Colts @ Seattle Seahawks

Jacoby Brissett played well last week against the Browns with one passing and two rushing touchdowns. However, this week’s matchup Sunday night in Seattle provides a much more difficult challenge. The Colts remain one of the worst teams in my rating and might’ve lost to Cleveland if it weren’t for costly Browns turnovers.

The Seahawks fell to 1-2 last week in Tennessee but their offense finally showed signs of life with 20 points in the second half. Seattle’s defense has been solid (10th in my ratings) and that unit is certainly well-equipped to handle the Colts’ offense. However, I don’t see any value here, as my ratings favor Seattle by 13 points and I have situations that favor both teams.

Wunderdog

New York @ Tampa Bay
Pick: New York +3

This is a great spot for the 0-3 Giants. They finally got the offense going last week, scoring 24 points against Philadelphia. The Giants made the playoffs last season, so they are not short on talent, and are 33-16-3 ATS in October games. New York is also 52-33 ATS away off a division game, plus 32-16 ATS away after gaining six or more yards per play in their previous game. Tampa Bay is dealing with a lot of injuries on defense. QB Jameis Winston has as many TDs as picks (three) and the ground game has been terrible at #26 in rushing yards per contest. The defense is hurting up front and is ranked #30 in yards allowed, and #31 in passing while allowing 329.5 yards in the air per game. The Bucs are without linebackers Lavonte David and Kwon Alexander, so rookie Kendell Beckwith is stepping in. The Bucs come off a 34-17 loss to the Vikings, playing without three starters -- defensive tackle Chris Baker, Alexander and cornerback Brent Grimes. During the game, defensive tackle Gerald McCoy, David, cornerback Vernon Hargreaves and defensive end Noah Spence all left with injuries with Spence separating his right shoulder, so it's uncertain which players may be available against the Giants. Tampa Bay is on a 22-45-1 ATS run at home, including 11-24 ATS at home against a team with a losing road record. Take the points and play the NY Giants.

OC Dooley

Dolphins +3

It was exactly a week ago overseas in London when a team "getting" a field goal from the oddsmakers (Jacksonville) winning OUTRIGHT in a 44-7 romp. It was also at this same exact spot in the schedule last year when also in an overseas game in London at three-point underdog pulled off the OUTRIGHT upset, so the mere pricing of this game speaks volumes. Favored New Orleans has INJURY issues where a pair of offensive linemen were limited in practice and may not play. That is big news since the defensive line of Miami features a pair of players (Ndamukong Suh and Cameron Wake) who have been to the Pro Bowl "five" different times. The defense of the Dolphins also has GOOD news as middle linebacker Lawarence Timmons has served a team imposed one-game suspension (after going AWOL) and is eligible to return. Admittedly Miami just lost 20-6 against the lowly Jets but is should be considered they had to fly cross-country for the contest (also had a home game postponed by a hurricane). In addition Miami is still breaking in quarterback Jay Cutler who turned down a job with today's broadcaster (FOX) in order to resume his career

Stephen Nover

Giants / Bucs Under 44½

Jameis Winston has scary receiving weapons in Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson. The Buccaneers don't get their best running back, Doug Martin, back until next week when his suspension is lifted. But the Giants rank last in run defense giving up 153.3 yards on the ground per game. The Giants defense has been on the field far more than their offense. New York has lost the time of possession battle in all three of their games by wide margins. This is a late afternoon game in south Florida heat and humidity. The Giants defense could wilt away in the second half.

So I'm confident the Buccaneers will get their share of points. But how about the Giants? Can they hold up their part on the offensive end? Evidence and circumstances say yes - in a big way.

The Giants finally - after 11 quarters - got their passing attack humming putting up 24 points on the Eagles in the fourth quarter last Sunday. Eli Manning threw for 366 yards and three touchdowns against Philadelphia. The Giants have all their starters healthy now on their offensive line and Manning has gotten in sync with his wide receivers. A healthy Odell Beckham Jr. can take his place among the three best wideouts in the NFL.

Manning is 5-0 lifetime versus Tampa Bay. He's had some huge games against the Bucs. The Buccaneers haven't sacked Manning the past three times they've faced him and have only one sack this season in 78 pass attempts.

Journeyman Case Keenum had the best game of his five-year career playing the Buccaneers last week. Keenum threw for 369 yards and three touchdowns without an interception. His passer rating was 142.1. Going into that game, Keenum's career quarterback rating was below 80.

A big reason for Keenum's explosion was Tampa Bay's cluster injury problem on defense. The Buccaneers could get some of their walking wounded back, but are going to be without their two best linebackers, Kown Alexander and Lavonte David, and probably missing safety TJ Ward, too. Rookie linebacker Kendell Beckwith is forced to call the Bucs' defensive signals with Alexander and David out. It's an added bonus for the Giants if the Buccaneers are minus their two best defensive linemen, Gerald McCoy (ankle) and Chris Baker (flu).

Scott Spreitzer

Carolina at New England
Play: New England -9

It's not often we recommend laying big points in the NFL, but we expect a refocused Patriots' effort on defense after allowing 33 points and 417 yards to Houston last week. Under Belichick, the Pats are 28-12 ATS after allowing 30 or more points in their previous game. The Tom Brady-led offense is beginning to click as Brady and Brandin Cooks have begun to find a rhythm. Cooks was Brady's second most targeted receiver last week and finished with 131 yards receiving and a pair of TDs. Brady, Cooks, Gronk, Hogan, and Amendola, are on the same page in the passing game at this point. While we expect another strong game from the New England offense, we don't believe the Panthers' banged-up attack will be able to keep up.

The Prez

Buffalo vs. Atlanta
Play: Buffalo +8.5

Buffalo’s defense is the fuel that sparks the offense. The Bills "D" has been nothing short of dominant in September. While the Marcell Dareus led unit allowed the Broncos 366 total yards a week ago the majority of those game in garbage time. Without a game breaker on the outside the offense depends on the duo of quarterback Tyrod Taylor and running back LeSean McCoy. The Bills running game hasn't overwhelmed the opposition this year with both Taylor and McCoy combining for just 246 yards on the ground. McCoy, however, has been Taylor's second option in the passing game, with 18 catches for 131 yards on the year.

The Buffalo defensive front have 10 sacks in the first three games and the secondary has yet to allow a passing touchdown. have recorded 10 sacks in their first three games and have yet to allow a passing touchdown. The Falcons have won the last four meetings dating to Buffalo’s last victory in the series in 1995.

Atlanta's Super Bowl calling offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan resides on the west coach as head coach of the San Francisco 49ers but the Falcons are still one of the league's top scoring units. The Falcons rank fifth in the NFL at 29 points per game after three games. Quarterback Matt Ryan and their 29 points per game square off against the top scoring defense (12.3 points) in the league. Ryan manages a balanced offense with running backs Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman combining to average 146 rushing yards per game. Julio Jones leads the team in receptions with tight end Austin Hooper playing the part of the game breaking receiver averaging over 28 yards per catch.

Defense, like last year, is the clubs Achilles, allowing 22 points per game, and winning two of their first three games by less than a touchdown.

Atlanta's 3-0 mark is somewhat deceiving. The Falcons could easily be 1-2 entering this Week 4 event. Atlanta escaped Soldier Field in Week 1 with a closely contested win over the Bears and last Sunday's four point win over the Lions came with Detroit falling a yard short of the end zone as time expired.

Ryan, Freeman and Jones vs. the Buffalo defense makes for an entertaining affair on Sunday. With all due respect to the Super Bowl runners-up - the Bills are in a position to control the line of scrimmage - especially the reconstructed right side of Falcons' offensive line where Ty Sambrailo replaces starting right tackle Ryan Schraeder and right guard Wes Schweitzer enters Sunday's game with only four NFL starts under his belt.

Atlanta wins on Sunday's by putting points on the scoreboard and evidence of this is the fact that the franchise has gone “OVER” the total in 18 of last 22 games. This weekend they struggle to run the football and keep Ryan clean in the pocket. The result is a two-plus turnover performance by the Bills defense making the value-play in this game Buffalo plus the points.

Tony Finn

Tennessee at Houston
Play: Houston +2.5

Watson and his Houston teammates took Tom Brady and the New England Patriots to the wire a week ago eventually falling by a 36-33 margin. Mariota and Tennessee held serve in Nashville with a 33-27 victory over the Seattle Seahawks.

Mariota has thrown for 696 yards and three touchdowns and he and his teammates head into this Sunday's road event with 2-1 record on the season. A win as a visitor this weekend would put Tennessee in the early season drivers set in the AFC South division. The balanced attack of DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry in the backfield, Rishard Matthews on the outside and tight end Delanie Walker leading the team in receptions (15), makes the Titans a tough squad to defend.

The 36 points that the Texans defense allowed last Sunday to the Patriots has to be taken with a grain of salt. Be it the 2015 Denver Broncos, 2008 Pittsburgh Steelers, 2013 Seattle Seahawks or the 1995 Chicago Bears, even the most talented stop-units in the history of the league struggle to contain Brady and company on Gillette Stadium field.

Head coach Bill Belichick and his defensive staff did a stellar job of keeping All-Pro defensive end J.J. Watt out of the Patriots' backfield. Watts has failed to record a sack in his first three games. The Texans lone win this season has come against the 0-3 Cincinnati Bengals but Watts and the Houston defense are healthy and in a position to excel this Sunday against Mariota and the Titans offense.

The Texans have been against-the-spread monsters against division opponents the last two seasons. Save their porous performance against a good Jacksonville defense in Week 1, a non-cover and straight up loss, the team is 8-3-1 in their last 12 AFC South Division games.

Houston's offense - under the direction of Watson is a work in progress - but the Texans' defense is head and shoulders better than the Titans and has the front seven to contain the dual-threat that is Mariota.

Watson’s mobility has been the key to mitigating the injuries of the Houston offensive line despite it working out to a mere one victory. Watson gains confidence and experience with each passing week.

This Sunday event is a difficult spot for the visiting Titans. Tennessee comes off a big win against a physical Seattle Seahawks squad and this Sunday's situation trends to a Houston win and cover.

Over the last 19 weeks of National Football League action, teams in a contest that followed a contest against the physical Seahawks defense, have won only 6 of 19 games. In that 19-game span the club that just played Seattle in their previous event is 5-14 ATS the following week.

Vegas Butcher

NO vs MIA +3

This game was listed as MIA -3 in the off-season. I know Cutler is in and Tannehill is out since then, but there really isn’t much of a difference between the two. If anything, Cutler has a much stronger arm. In any case, I think there’s a pretty big over-reaction to last week’s results, where the Saints upset CAR on the road while Miami got worked by the Jets. But let’s remember that this is the NFL, and it’s very dangerous to go off previous week’s results. Miami was set as a -3 favorite in this matchup for a reason, and a 6-point adjustment is astronomical this early in the year. This one is ‘trending’ towards 3.5 (with -3 being heavily juiced up) but I don’t think it’ll get there. If anything, this is shaping up to be a vig-free wager on the underdog. Lean: MIA +3

PIT @ BAL +3

While everyone remembers the really ugly result of that London game for the Ravens, let’s not forget how the Steelers go worked by the Bears, a team that was absolutely horrific on Thursday Night at Green Bay. Both teams are 2-0 and both have wins against mediocrity (@ CLE and MIN w/out Bradford for PIT and CIN and @ CLE for BAL). In any case, one thing we should all expect is a close matchup between these two. You have to expect the Ravens to bounce back after that ugly performance, though they’d have to do it without their stud DT Brandon Williams once again. This is a huge boost for Le’Veon Bell and the run-game, and if that gets going, Steelers could potentially control this game offensively. Defensively, Pittsburgh is getting both Tuitt and Watt back for this one. Still the underdog is 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these clubs, and there’s some value on the home dog here. Lean: BAL +3

CAR @ NE -9

There isn’t a worse defense in the league than the Patriots. Yes, Hightower is back this week, but there’s still some serious issues with this unit that ranks 31st against the pass and 28th against the run. I know Newton has looked awful so far, but you can’t go anywhere but up after his start to the season. Carolina will involve McCaffrey much more going forward and the fact that Kelvin Benjamin is suiting up for this one is a big boost for this offense. The spread was -9 NE in the offseason and it hasn’t changed, even though the public ‘perception’ of this Panthers team has. Of course I’m not so sure the perception of the Pats has changed much, even though they should be 1-2 with 2 losses at home. Bounce back spot for the Panthers here, who have a slightly better D-line (10th in ASR%) than the Texans (12th in ASR%) so far this year. Lean: CAR +9

TEN @ HOU +2.5

Here’s an interesting line. Houston won @ Cincy two weeks ago and then should have won @ NE last week, yet they’re a home-dog in a divisional matchup at home. The Titans are coming off a home win against Seattle, though the Seahawks aren’t as strong as we’ve all thought before the season. Neither are the Pats. Still, this line was -3 HOU in the offseason, and there is pretty significant line value on ‘em at the current number. This one is trending towards 3, though I don’t believe it’ll get there. One key injury is to Jurrell Casey, who was added to the report on Friday. He’s Titan’s best defensive lineman, and with him at less than 100% (or out), Watson should have more time to find his receivers and/or to use his legs to move the chains. Tennessee is 6-11 ATS on the road over the last few years and 7-18 ATS against conference opponents. Home dog should get a closer look in this one. Lean: HOU +2.5

DET @ MIN -2.5

Last week the Vikings were +2.5 at home against a mediocre Tampa team on the news that Keenum would be the starter. He proceeded to shred the Bucs D of course and the Vikings won in a comfortable fashion. This week, Minnesota is a -2.5 home favorite, albeit facing a much better opponent. Keenum is still the starting QB. One key factor to consider is that Bucs rank 29th defensively against the pass….Lions are 5th. In the offseason Minnesota was -3 in this matchup. Last week the adjustment was about 5.5 points when news came out that Bradford would sit. This week’s adjustment is only 0.5 points based on my logic. I think it’s pretty clear where the ‘value’ lies. Lean: DET +2.5

BUF @ ATL -8

So we have a matchup of an elite offensive team (ATL) vs an elite defensive one (BUF). Or do we? Last year the Falcons paced the lead with the efficiency ratings, registering a 25% offensive DVOA for the season. They were a juggernaut. This year so far, they’re ranked 7th with an offensive DVOA or 19%, a 25% decline in efficiency from last season. This team has clearly regressed back to the mean a bit offensively, as was to be expected. On the other side, we have a Buffalo D that ranks 2nd in the league so far. This is a stout unit that hasn’t given up more than 16 points yet this year, though of course their games came against NYJ, CAR, and DEN…teams not really known for their offensive firepower. Still, the Bills D is playing extremely well. On the other side, there’s a matchup that Buffalo could exploit, and that’s Atlanta’s 31st ranked run-D. After being stifled by premier run-defenses of CAR and DEN, I’d expect Shady McCoy to go off in this one. Taylor is one of the most mobile QB’s in the league, and with him being a threat to run at any time, I see Buffalo having a lot of success moving the chains. Atlanta is coming off another really close game, but more importantly, Ryan has thrown 3 INT’s in that one. Ryan is actually a pretty TO-prone QB over the course of his career, and was coming off a year where he had the lowest INT-rate of his career. Regression to the mean is to be expected, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him make mistakes in this matchup as well. Dareus is back for the Bills, and if Ryan gets frazzled by the pressure, he’ll make mistakes. Lean: BUF +8

LAR @ DAL -6

The offseason line was -12.5 Cowboys in this matchup. It opened at -7.5 this week and has now dropped to -6. I think it’s pretty clear where the pure line-value lies. Rams have been favorites in all of their 3 games so far and they’re 1-2 ATS to show for it. Now we’ll get to see what this team is truly made out of. Their defense isn’t as good as everyone believes, especially their run-D. Cowboys’ O-line should be able to push this D-line around in the trenches while establishing a running game. If that’s the case, it could be a very long day for LA. One factor to consider is that Cowboys are on a short-week having played on MNF, while the Rams have had 10-days to rest/prepare. Lean: DAL -6

CIN @ CLE +3

The Bengals are 11-5 ATS on the road over the last 16 games while Cleveland is 4-12 ATS at home. Cincy is getting Burfict back for this one, which is pretty big as he’s their best LB. Bengals rank 10th in pass-D, and I believe their secondary will be able to take away the receivers in this one. With Burfict in the middle, I like the Bengals D to play well here. More importantly for them is that their offense started showing their new identity last week @ Green Bay. The offense will revolve around Green and Mixon going forward, Cincy’s top two playmakers. The Browns are without Jamie Collins and Myles Garrett, and Danny Shelton got hurt this week. Their absences are a blow to the interior of this Browns D. This can only help the Bengals, who feature a really bad O-line. Bengals are a better team in this matchup and I’d expect that to show in their sense of urgency this week. Lean: CIN -3

JAX @ NYJ +3

I don’t remember the last time the Jags were a road-favorite. Had to be at least 5+ years ago. In any case, last week I was shocked to see the Browns as road-favorites @ Colts. That one was a mistake. This one is an indication that Jags could actually be a pretty good team this year. And to me they are. Their defense is top-5, featuring the most explosive D-line in the league so far this season (#1 in ASR%) and two shut-down corners on the boundaries. Offensively, they still feature one of the worst QB’s in the league in Bortles, but their offensive philosophy of pounding the ball on the ground is paying dividends. Jets are 25th against the run defensively and they have a below average O-line. Expect Jags’ strategy of running the ball and playing stout defense to have success in this one. Besides, does anyone see NYJ winning 2 in a row this year? Lean: JAX -3

NYG @ TB -3

Tampa will be without Alexander, David, and Ward this week. A number of their other defenders are questionable as they’re dealing with injuries. This defense is decimated with them so far this year. This unit ranks 29th defensively against the pass and 4th against the run. Well, Giants don’t know how to run the ball on offense, and Eli Manning did a great job of getting the ball out quickly last week, as 34 out of his 35 attempts were out in 2 second or less. Expect NY to attack this Tampa D in a similar fashion in this one. One other key factor is that Tampa has the worst D-line in the league, ranking 32nd with an ASR% of only 1.3% (1 sack). Giants’ poor O-line should hold up here. Lean: NYG +3

PHI @ LAC -2.5

Philly is playing their 3rd road-game out of the first 4 games and coming off a wild home game against the Giants last week. Of course what makes this road-game more challenging is that they have to fly from coast-to-coast for this one. To make matters worse, this defense is absolutely decimated with injuries and the offense will be without Sproles for the rest of the year. By comparison, Chargers have no significant injuries besides Verrett and they’ll be playing their 3rd straight at home. Simply a bad spot for the Eagles here. Lean: LAC -2.5

SF @ ARZ -6.5

This spread was -9 ARZ in the offseason so it shows you how significant the loss of David Johnson is. It doesn’t help that the Cardinals’ O-line is dealing with major injuries at ‘guard’ as well. Niners have virtually zero pass-rush though, ranking 31st in that area. Of course San Fran could be without Hyde, which would be a huge blow. In addition they’re missing a number of key defenders: Foster and Reid. Keep in mind that ARZ is on a short week, having played on MNF, while San Fran has had 10-days to prepare. Lean: ARZ -6.5

OAK @ DEN -3

What the heck did we witness last Sunday Night? That was an absolutely ghastly performance by the Raiders. I know I’ve said earlier not to over-react to previous week’s display but boy is that hard to do in this particular scenario. Maybe Oakland was truly ‘looking ahead’ to this week, but still, that game @ Washington was bad. Regardless of that, Denver D has owned Carr so far in his career. Plus they have the most dominant run-D in the league so far, which is an issue for the Raiders. Crabtree is also dealing with an injury and he sat out on Friday, which isn’t a good sign. The favorite is 8-1-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings while the Raiders are 1-3-1 ATS in the last 5 @ Denver. Lean: DEN -3

IND @ SEA -13

I can’t lay double-digits this early in the NFL season, nor can I back the worst team in the league on the road in Seattle. Honestly, I got nothing here. Take Seattle in Survivor pools…that’s about it. PASS

DAVE COKIN

RAIDERS at 276 BRONCOS
PLAY: BRONCOS -3

Oakland looked like a monster the first two weeks of the NFL campaign. They rolled to a nice win on the road against the Titans, and followed that up by destroying the Jets. But last Sunday was a different story as the Raiders were thumped by the Redskins.

Now Oakland has the difficult task of rebounding on the road against the Broncos. Denver is also off a loss as they let a lead get away and dropped a decision at Buffalo.

I thought both losses were a little fluky. The Raiders have a solid offensive line but that unit happened to have a collectively awful game at Washington. I thought it just turned into one off those nights for Oakland. They made some early mistakes and then everything simply went awry. It happens to almost every team at some point, and should not be overrated.

The Broncos loss was far different. Denver looked to be in control of the game against the Bills. But some solid in game adjustments by the Bills, particularly on defense, turned the tide and Buffalo walked off the field on top.

I think Denver is more likely to rebound on Sunday. The Broncos have had Derek Carr’s number, and consequently, they’ve dominated this rivalry recently. I tend to favor defense more than offense when sizing up the NFL and there’s no question the Broncos have the superior stop unit.

I see the Broncos establishing their run defense in this game and turning Oakland into a one dimensional attack in the process. It’s a tried and true formula for me in college and pro football. Find the team that’s likely to own the better rushing stats and there’s a good chance you’ll be backing a winner. I see Denver winning that portion of this game, and I’m willing to give the FG with the Broncos.