Free Picks for Saturday, September 30th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
GEORGIA AT TENNESSEE
PLAY: GEORGIA -7
I’m not going into lengthy detail on what took place at the conclusion of last season’s duel between the Bulldogs and Volunteers. Suffice to say it was one of the wildest finishes one will ever see. If your mind is fuzzy as to what took place, do a quick search and your memory should be sufficiently jolted.
In any event, this is a classic revenge spot for Georgia. The Bulldogs will certainly arrive in Knoxville wth major momentum following a spectacular demolition of Mississippi State. Georgia looks like a legit powerhouse right now and I’m not about to step in front of that express.
As for Tennessee, the Vols have problems. Their head coach is very much on the hot seat. In fact, there are some who believe that if Tennessee loses this game, Butch Jones could be first coach out come Monday. I don’t know if that’s so likely to happen, but there’s no denying his job security level is about as low as it gets at this point.
Tennessee was absolutely terrible in a narrow win over lowly UMass on Saturday. The team had no focus whatsoever and some of the stats from this game were downright alarming if you’re a Tennessee fan. About the only silver lining is that they managed to win the football game, but there really isn’t anything positive for the Vols right now.
The downer to some extent is that Georgia seems like an overwhelmingly obvious choice in this game and the number is not high enough to provide much hesitation. I’m a great believer in that old axiom about if it looks too good to be true, it probably isn’t. But considering the info I’ve been receiving about the state of affairs at Tennessee right now, the only side I can consider here is Georgia minus the TD.
Harry Bondi
NAVY (-5.5) over Tulsa
Not only have the Midshipmen covered 67% of their road games over the last 15 years, but the team is also 12-6 ATS in conference play the last three years and 5-1 ATS as a road favorite. Today, Navy’s option-attack gets to line up against a Tulsa defense that is allowing an alarming 6.9 yards per rush. Last year, the Golden Hurricane gave up 42 points and 398 yards of offense in a 42-40 loss to Navy as a 3-point dog, but this year they don’t have the offensive firepower to keep pace. Lay the road favorite.
Dennis Macklin
New Mexico St vs. Arkansas
Play: New Mexico St +17
Doug Martin has done a great job in an untenable situation and hopefully, he can win enough conference games to keep his job. Martin went the Juco route to get players for an all in year and it has paid dividends as the Aggies are 2-2 SU and 4-0 ATS with losses coming by six at Arizona State and by 3 to preseason SBC co-favorite Troy. This might be Brett Bielema's weakest team at Arkansas and the Razors are off a game they just gave away vs. Texas A&M. Quarterback play goes to NMSU with Rodgers who should do some business against a Razor secondary with just 10 picks in 15 games. Thinking that New Mexico State can possibly hang around and win this straight up with the worst case scenario being slipping in the back door. This is a one-score game.
Raphael Esparza
Northwestern / Wisconsin Under 52
When these two BIG Ten teams going head-to-head in conference play the UNDER is usually the best bet. Last year in Northwestern the Badgers won 21-7, and the Badgers defense has been lights out as of late. On Saturday afternoon I see the Badgers 'D' being too much for the Wildcats. Defense will be key for both teams, and Saturday I also see both teams establishing the run early. If that happens I see a low-scoring game overall. Northwestern is 1-4 O/U following a SU win and the Wildcats are also 5-16 O/U following a win by 20 points or more in their last game. Wisconsin is 4-10 O/U against a team with a winning record and the Badgers are also 3-9-1 O/U following a win by 20 points or more in their last game. Northwestern will keep this game close, but the Badgers defense will be hard to score Saturday afternoon.
Jason Sharpe
Army (-24) over UTEP
These two teams squared off last season, and Army rolled to a 52-point win. UTEP's head coach spoke before last year's game, admitting his team didn't practice for the Army option because they didn't play another team like them the rest of the year. Things look to be setting about the same way again this year, making this more or less a meaningless nonconference game for UTEP. This year's UTEP team might be even worse than last year also as they come in 0-4 straight-up and 0-4 against the spread having lost by an average of 35 points per game thus far. Looking for the same type thing here in this one. Take Army minus the points.
Robert Ferringo
Ohio State / Rutgers Over 53.5
Ohio State rung up 54 points on their own last week against UNLV as a 40-point favorite. And outside of that Oklahoma game, the Buckeyes are averaging a hearty 47 points per game. Hell, even with that game they are ringing up an average of nearly 40 points per outing. Ohio State's much-ballyhooed defense is also giving up an average of 20 points per game. And even though I don't think that Rutgers' defense will come even close to stopping the Buckeyes, this play is more predicated on the fact that I believe the Scarlet Knights will find a way to put up some points. These teams in the northeast may be weaker than a lot of teams to see in the south or midwest. But they have a hell of a lot of pride. And if Rutgers can play with Washington - a team they covered the number again in the opener - then I know they can line up and play with the Buckeyes. Rutgers isn't going to threaten to win this game. But they will be moderately competitive, and that means scoring some points. I can see this game at 41-20, and I think that it will easily clear this total bar.
Alan Harris
Winnipeg / Edmonton Over 60
Two teams that have been trending to the over will meet when the Winnipeg Blue Bombers hit the road to take on the Edmonton Eskimos at Commonwealth Stadium in Edmonton, AB, on Saturday night. The Blue Bombers have posted a 5-1 record to the over in their last six games played in the month of September and they have gone an excellent 12-4 to the over in their last sixteen games following a game where they covered the number. They have also gone up and over the total five of their last seven games following a straight up win and they are a lights out 15-5-2 to the over in their last 22 games versus a West Division rival. The Eskimos have been an over team as well in the spot they are in here on Saturday as they have gone over the number in each of their last five Week 15 games going back to the 2012 season and they are 4-1 to the over in their last five games here in 2017. Throw in the fact that the Eskimos also have that same 4-1 record to the over in their last five versus a team from the West while the Blue Bombers are a perfect 9-0 to the over in their last nine versus a team with a winning record and that's where we'll have our play as we expect both teams to get up and down the field in Edmonton on Saturday night.
Harry Bondi
NORTHERN ILLINOIS (+12) over San Diego State
Not only has Northern Illinois covered nine of their last 10 games overall and 10 of their last 13 on the road, but this is a great situational spot for the Huskies. While San Diego State has been reading its press clippings about their surprising undefeated start, the Aztecs also come in off three-straight physical games against Arizona State, Stanford and Air Force, with two of those games coming on the road. Meanwhile, Northern Illinois had last week off and is playing with revenge after dropping a 42-28 decision to the Aztecs last year at home. Take the points!
Cappers Club
UTEP vs. Army
Play: Army -24
The Army Black Knights face one of the worst teams in college football and even at -24 they have good value.
The UTEP Miners have had the worst start in college football. They come into this game with an 0-4 record and they are also 0-4 ATS.
They have only averaged 12 points on offense so far this year, while giving up over 47 points per game on the defensive side.
They have given up over 270 yards per game on the ground, and that number will increase after Army is done with them.
The Black Knights will have no issue running the ball down their throats and they will cruse to an easy victory.
Jack Jones
Vanderbilt vs. Florida
Play: Vanderbilt +10
The betting public wants nothing to do with Vanderbilt now after they were blown out 59-0 by the Alabama Crimson Tide last week. This is the perfect time to 'buy low' on the Commodores now as 10-point road underdogs to the Florida Gators.
People are quick to forget Vanderbilt's impressive 3-0 start now. They went on the road and won 28-6 as only 2.5-point favorites against a very good Middle Tennessee State team that actually had starting QB Brent Stockstill at that point. They then shut out Alabama A&M 42-0 before upsetting Kansas State 14-7 as 4-point dogs. Kansas State is very similar to Florida in my opinion.
Florida may be 2-1, but the Gators could easily be 0-3 and probably should be. They lost 17-33 to Michigan, then connected on a hail mary on the final play of the game to beat a bad Tennessee team 26-20. Then last week they extended their winning streak over Kentucky to 31 games with a 28-27 win, scoring a touchdown in the final seconds to grab victory from the jaws of defeat.
I've seen nothing from Florida this season that would warrant them being double-digit favorites here against a Vanderbilt team that is every bit as good as they are. This is a Florida team with a laundry list of suspensions and injuries right now, which has been a big reason for their early struggles, and it's not getting any better this week.
This is the best team Vanderbilt has had under Derek Mason, and the Commodores played much better Gators teams tough the last two years. They only lost 7-9 as 20.5-point road dogs in 2015, and lost 6-13 as 14-point home dogs last year. I think this game will be decided by a single possession once again.
The Commodores are 22-6 ATS in their last 28 games following an ATS loss, including a perfect 6-0 ATS in this situation over the last two seasons. The Gators are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 home games. The road team is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings. The Commodores are 4-0 ATS in their last four trips to Florida.
Jesse Schule
Clemson vs. Virginia Tech
Play: Virginia Tech +8
The Tigers were just a slight favorite when they played #14 ranked Louisville on the road a few weeks ago, but they are asked to cover a far larger number here at Virginia Tech. I expect this to be a low scoring battle between two solid defensive teams. Clemson's defense has been impressive, ranking 3rd nationally, allowing opponents to average just over nine points per game. Virginia Tech ranks 6th nationally, allowing just over 10 points per game. The Hokies have outscored opponents 65-0 in two home games so far. Clemson quarterback Kelly Bryant hasn't played poorly, but his stats aren't all that impressive. He's thrown for 873 yards and has completed 68 percent of his passes, but has just two TDs and three picks in four games. Freshman Josh Jackson has put up far more impressive numbers for the Hokies, throwing for 1,127 yards with 11 TDs and just one INT. This Virginia Tech team is far more experienced than the team that lost by a score of 42-35 to Clemson last year.
Ian Cameron
Memphis at UCF
Play: Over 68
UCF is finally starting to look like the type of well-oiled offensive machine head coach Scott Frost conducted during his time as offensive coordinator at Oregon. The Knights piled up 61 points against FIU and 38 points against Maryland utilizing a very balanced attack featuring nearly 200 yards per game on the ground and over 300 yards per game through the air. Quarterback McKenzie Milton has been an improved passer this season completing 66% with a solid 5-to-1 TD-to-INT ratio. He also has that dual threat ability to make plays with his feet (79 ypg). I expected Memphis to be improved on the defensive side of the ball but that hasn’t come to fruition. The Tigers stop unit has continued to struggle, especially against the pass as they’ve yielded 344 ypg at a 7.3 ypp clip. Memphis’ defensie is an injury riddled mess with the loss of three defensive starters in its season opening victory against UL-Monroe. Starting defensive back Tim Gordon is also injured, as is senior safety Shaun Rupert, who was banged up in last weekend’s victory against Southern Illinois. Memphis head coach Mike Norvell: “This has just been crazy bad luck, in a sense. The issues that we’ve had have nothing to do with training; we haven’t had many muscle injuries. It’s just truly freak injuries.’’ This is not an optimal team for a struggling and injury plagued defense to be playing. But on the flipside, Memphis still has a very potent and explosive offense led by quarterback Riley Ferguson. And like UCF, they are balanced with north of 200 ypg on the ground and through the air. UCF’s defense has tremendous stats after allowing 17 and 10 points in its first two games but FIU and Maryland with a third-string quarterback are a far cry from what they’ll see on Saturday. I see both teams moving the football with relative ease as both teams project to score well into the 30’s.
Andrew Lange
Mid Tennessee St at Florida Atlantic
Play: Over 58.5
Four games and four very easy "unders" for Middle Tennessee State who for a third straight game except to be without the services of quarterback Brent Stockstill. The Blue Raiders have played a weird schedule with even weirder results. In Week 1, Vanderbilt was able to control tempo and grind out a low scoring 28-6 win. In Week 2, with Stockstill under center, MTSU traveled to Syracuse in what projected to be a high scoring affair (total closed 72). Instead, the Blue Raiders purposely slowed down the pace of the game and came away with a 30-23 win. Week 3 they stood little chance as Stockstill was ruled out and Vanderbilt-esque Minnesota put the clamps down en route to a 34-3 victory. And finally last week, a game in which I felt set up well for a bet on the "over", never had a chance as MTSU and Bowling Green scored only six points combined in a very sloppy second half after 31 points in the first half. The Blue Raiders accumulated 533 yards of total offense but only 24 points thanks to three turnovers. Overall, MTSU has played two "dead nuts" under teams in Vanderbilt and Minnesota, been without the best quarterback in school history, and coughed the ball up nine times for an overall turnover margin of -7. Those aren't the type of attributes that generally lead to games going over the total.
But this week could change. Backup quarterback John Urzua now has two starts under his belt and made big strides last week when he hit on 75% of his passes for 290 yards (9.1 ypa). He still made a few mistakes but should be fine against a questionable Florida Atlantic pass defense. The Owls' season-long numbers look very good thanks to games against Navy and Bethune-Cookman. Last week, Buffalo used two quarterbacks and posted a season-best 254 yards through the air.
For FAU, the transition to Lane Kiffin hasn't been smooth but that was to be expected. The schedule has been tough with a brutal matchup vs. Navy in Week 1 and road trips to Wisconsin and Buffalo. Still, even without an established starter at quarterback, the Owls have managed over 6 yards per play. And pace-wise they are playing at an above average clip (one snap every 21 seconds).
Oddsmakers really adjusted MTSU hard due to its results (0-4 O/U) and Stockstill's absence as this total opened 51. It's since been bet up to 58.5 and could very well climb higher. Given the unique circumstances for both squads with injuries and opponents, I feel this game has the potential to buck that trend and play more offensive friendly.
DAVE COKIN
COLOEADO STATE AT HAWAII
PLAY: COLORADO STATE -6.5
Hawaii has taken some sharp action the last coupe days, and that has caused this number to dip down to Colorado State -6.5. I can’t say I agree with the move. The Rams were not as good as the score indicated in a romp over Oregon State, but they also weren’t as bad as the score indicated in the loss to Colorado. CSU got drilled by Alabama as expected but the Rams showed plenty of fight in that skirmish and ended up scoring a couple of fourth quarter TD’s to slip well inside the number.
Hawaii is off a very tough overtime loss at Wyoming. The Rainbow Warriors were the better team on the field but left some points off the board and that ultimately cost them what would have been a nice conference road win.
This game has a good chance to be decided by turnovers. Both starting QB’s, Nick Stevens for CSU and Dru Brown for Hawaii, are vulnerable to interceptions. There’s a likelihood the team that takes batter care of the football will come out on top.
For me, its all about the power ratings. I have Colorado State -12.5 on a neutral field. The Hawaii home field advantage is not nearly what it used to be as the ‘Bows have turned into big time money burners at home, covering only three of their last 17 before the friendlies. CSU has been rewarding its backers on a very regular basis lately and in fact the Rams are on a 7-0 conference spread run.
I’m trusting the numbers here and I also like the fact the road team is of a bye while the hosts could be sharing from the OT loss last weekend. I’d look to side with Colorado State minus the points in this game.