Free Picks for Monday, September 18th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
Randall The Handle
Lions (1-0) at Giants (0-1)
Everyone is down on the Giants after an uninspiring effort in Dallas last Sunday night for all to see. New York’s offence was completely ineffective as it was unable to find the end zone while its top runner accumulated a paltry 16 yards rushing. Not having stud WR Odell Beckham to make plays while also keeping the defense honest was also a contributing factor. It wasn’t the Giants best day. Conversely, the Lions keep finding ways to win after yet another comeback last Sunday. As a result of last week’s showings, this price is reduced. If we rely on New York’s defense (held Dallas to 19 points) and Odell returning, the Giants should be able to avoid the dreaded 0-2 start. TAKING: GIANTS –3
Dr Bob
Detroit Lions @ New York Giants
Lean – NEW YORK GIANTS (-3) over Detroit
The Giants offense could only manage 3 points last week and many will be blaming the absence of top receiver Odell Beckham. However, since the start of Beckham’s career, New York’s offensive adjEPA has been about the same in the 5 other games he has missed compared to when he’s played. The Giants have a 0.15 offensive adjEPA when he does not start and a 0.14 offensive adjEPA when does. Contrary to fantasy football, most top wide receivers mean very little to the point spread. In truth, the Giants offense was just outplayed by Dallas but they should look better against a much easier opponent this week – the Lions defense ranked 26th last season in adjEPA/play.
Detroit had another 4th quarter comeback after setting the NFL record last season, but their 12 point win flatters them as adjEPA only expected them to win by 3. The Lions benefitted from four Cardinals’ turnovers and had some luck scoring touchdowns on all 3 of their Redzone trips.
Our model favors the Giants by 4½ points if Beckham doesn’t play and by 5½ points if he does play, so I’ll lean with the Giants either way.
Dave Cokin
New York vs. Miami
Play: Miami -1
Miami has fallen way out of contention for the NL Wildcard following a very rough stretch of baseball. So it’s play out the string time for the Mets and Marlins as this divisional series opens tonight.
The keys for me are fading Matt Harvey and the fact that Miami will actually be playing a true home game at last. The Marlins were the “home” team this weekend vs. the Brewers. But due to the Irma issues, the series was played at Milwaukee. Tonight, the Marlins will be the true home team. I think this would be more meaningful for a better supported franchise, but at the very least I have to think it’s a bit of a plus for the hosts.
As for Harvey, I don’t know if he’ll ever get back to the dominant pitcher we saw before a seemingly unending array of injuries reared their ugly head. One thing is crystal clear. Harvey isn’t even a shadow of what he used to be. Maybe these late season innings will help him in terms of prepping for 2018. That remains to be seen. What we know right now is that Harvey simply hasn’t been very effective.
Dan Straily got battered in his most recent start, and it’s not like the veteran righty is in peak form right now. But Straily has been mostly effective at home and he has to rate the edge on paper over Harvey.
The money line price tonight is higher than I generally like to play, so if you’re going to get involved in this one, a better option would seem to be creating a -1 line. That’s achieved by splitting the play between the money line and runs line. Marlins -1 is therefore tonight’s free play.
Brandon Lee
Red Sox vs. Orioles
Play: Orioles -119
Despite a 2-8 road trip, the Orioles are still alive, though their chances of making the playoffs are slim to none. Still, teams aren't going to quit until they are officially out of it this late in the season. Definitely feel there is some value here with Baltimore in their first game back home. I also like that they are coming off a win yesterday and have a red-hot Dylan Bunny on the mound, who has a 2.84 ERA and 0.947 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Boston counters with Doug Fister, who had been great before allowing 6 runs in 4 innings at home to the A's last time out and I think the struggles could continue here against a Orioles team that is averaging just under 5 (4.9) runs/game at home this season.
Kyle Hunter
Red Sox vs. Orioles
Play: Orioles -118
Doug Fister gets the ball for Boston and overall this season he's been a struggle. Fister enters Monday with an ERA of 4.40 and just a 5-8 record. His track record against Baltimore has been very sub par as well. Fister owns an ERA of 4.24 in 10 career outings against them. Baltimore counters with their most reliable pitcher in Dylan Bundy. With a 13-9 record, Bundy has faced the Red Sox 4 times this season and has allowed just 7 runs 25.1 innings of work. He's having quite the season and has really stepped up for the Orioles this season. The Red Sox have dropped 6 of the last 8 meetings when playing the Orioles. They're worth a move at this price.
Big Al
Arizona vs. San Diego
Pick: Arizona -158
Just when it was looking like the D-Backs could catch the Dodgers due to a combination of their hot streak combined with L.A.'s meltdown, the Dodgers take two of three from the Nats and Arizona loses their Sunday game to the Giants. As a result, the Dodgers lead in the division is back to 9.5 games and their magic number is now four. But at least the D-Backs get to go from one of the NL West Cellar Dwellers to the other as they begin a three-game series in San Diego against the Padres. And tonight their send one of their hottest starters to the mound as LHP Patrick Corbin will get his 31st start of the season. Corbin is 6-1 with a 2.12 ERA in his last seven starts, and he allowed just one run in 6 2/3 innings against the Rockies his last time out last Wednesday. With 14 wins on the season, Corbin has tied his previous high that he set in 2013 and one more tonight would make him a 15-game winner for the first time. The Diamondbacks are 14-6 in the last 20 meetings of these two.
Power Sports
New York vs. Miami
Pick: Miami -152
There was a time when the idea of Matt Harvey being a +140 dog to Miami would have seemed blasphemous. But blasphemy obviuously no longer exists in 2017 as that's what we have Monday and the oddsmakers are more than justified. This has been a terrible, injury-plagued season for the Mets, who have been as far down as 21 games below .500 at one point. Harvey has not been good this year and of late, he's been downright wretched (12.20 ERA, 2.420 WHIP L3 starts).
Miami provides the opposition here in a matchup of two NL East foes simply playing out the string. At one point, the Marlins were thinking of themselves as playoff contenders, but September has been a disaster in every sense of the word. They were three games above .500 back on 8.27, but since then have dropped 17 of 20! That definitely doesn't come across as "encouraging," but note that due to Hurricane Irma, this will be their first time playing at home since Sept 6th. The return home should provide a boost to the players.
Like Harvey, Miami starter Dan Straily has not been all that good of late. He was clobbered in his last start, giving up eight runs and 13 hits, to Philadelphia no less. But the difference between Straily and Harvey is that the former has generally been effective most of 2017. Straily has a 3.27 ERA here at home while Harvey's numbers on the road are not good at all (6.18 ERA and 1.855 WHIP). Really those numbers on the road aren't too far off from where he's at overall. His TSR on the road is 2-7 and it's been a long time since he made it past the fifth inning in any start.
Jim Feist
Arizona at San Diego
Pick: Under 8.5
San Diego is a big park and two strong pitching staffs square off. Arizona lefty Patrick Corbin (14-12) has allowed 1 run or less in 5 of his last 7 starts. Arizona is on a 5-1-1 run under the total, 4-0 under on the road. He faces a bad San Diego offense on a 15-7-1 run under the total at home. Starter Luis Perdomo is throwing well and the Under is 7-3-2 in the Padres last 12 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Jimmy Boyd
Red Sox vs. Orioles
Play: Orioles -120
I like the value here with Baltimore as a short home favorite against division rival Boston in Monday's series opener. The Orioles are an impressive 14-games over .500 at Camden Yards and will be highly motivated here to build off yesterday's 6-4 win to close out their weekend series with the Yankees.
Red Sox have a comfortable lead in the AL East and are all but a lock to make the playoffs. They continue a long-road trip and I look for them to struggle once again against Orioles starter Dylan Bundy, who has a pitched effectively in 4 starts against them (3 runs or less) and has been throwing lights out of late with a 2.84 ERA and 0.947 WHIP in his last 3 starts.
Boston's Doug Fister was just rocked in his last start (allowed 6 runs in 4 innings) and the team he plays for is just 11-22 in his last 33 starts in the 2nd half of the season.
Will Rogers
Milwaukee vs. Pittsburgh
Pick: Pittsburgh +102
The set-up: The Brewers gave up their NL Central lead shortly after the All Star break and having been playing catch-up, ever since. The Brewers have played some of their best baseball of late but it hasn't much helped. Milwaukee has won seven of its last nine contests, including a three-game sweep of first-place Chicago. However, the Cubs are currently on a six-game winning streak, so the Brewers remain four games behind the Cubs and 2 1/2 back of Colorado for the second NL wild card. "When you're chasing, you have little margin for error,” Milwaukee manager Craig Counsell told reporters. “The teams ahead of us are doing a good job of winning games, and we know the margin is slim. The Brewers begin a three-game road series against the Pittsburgh Pirates on Monday and the only thing the Pirates have to play for is staying out of the cellar in the NL Central (Pittsburgh is only two games ahead of last-place Cincinnati after Sunday's 5-2 loss to the Reds!).
The pitching matchup: Brent Suter (2-2 & 3.66 ERA) starts for Milwaukee and Jameson Taillon (7-6 & 4.78 ERA) for Pittsburgh. Suter is win-less since July 28, going 0-1 with a 6.33 ERA in six games (five starts / team is) since that last victory. He's returning from a rotator cuff injury on Sep. 3 and was limited to 50 pitches over three innings against the Pirates on Tuesday, but he should throw 70-75 this time around. Suter has posted a 2.77 ERA without recording a decision in six games (two starts / team is 1-1) versus Pittsburgh. Taillon knows about going win-less as well, as he's 0-1 with a 5.84 ERA since a triumph at Toronto on Aug. 11 (team is 2-3). The former No. 2 overall draft pick was tagged for six runs and 11 hits over 4 2/3 innings in a loss to the Cubs on Sep. 7 before getting some extra rest. Taillon is 1-2 with a 3.76 ERA in five career starts (Pirates are 3-2) against the Brewers, including a win in the only meeting this season.
The pick: Taillon has struggled since the All Star break (7.17 ERA and a 1.79 WHIP) but as manager Clint Hurdle has said, "He continues to fight. He's one guy who's going to sleep real well this winter. He's poured everything he's got into this thing. There's going to be a day when it's going to be good for him to just sit in a chair and go, 'Whew! What did I just go through?" I'm kind of on Hurdle's side here and will back the Pirates, as I'm no fan of Suter.
Jim Mack
Lions vs. Giants
Play: Giants -3
Things are rarely as good or as bad as they seem after one week in the NFL. Detroit posted an impressive win over Arizona but was the beneficiary of four Cardinals’ turnover, one of which resulted in a defensive score. The Giants were beaten soundly by Dallas, not surprising considering they ran the most scared, conservative offensive game plan I’ve ever witnessed from them. It was more than obvious that they missed WR Odell Beckham badly. Well, Beckham is supposed to be back, and I expect a much different Giants team in week 2. The G-Men have won and covered their last four games on Monday night as a home favorite or pick em’, and this home opener should provide even more motivation. Plus, last year when these teams met, with a very similar Giants’ defensive unit, Detroit mustered just 6 points. Big paycheck or not, I believe QB Matt Stafford is just as capable now of struggling like that again this week. Finally, if you read this week’s NFL feature article in the Football Weekly, System #1 indicates that Week 2 teams playing as favorites against an opponent that scored more than 30 points in the prior week are 35-8 SU & 30-10-3 ATS (75%) since '03. That’s some pretty good odds with New York, who wins comfortably, 24-13.
Buster Sports
Red Sox vs. Orioles
Play: Orioles -120
The Baltimore Orioles have very little chance at making the 2017 MLB playoffs but in saying that they still do have a slight chance as they are 5 1/2 games out of a playoff berth. We will go with the Orioles today, as we believe they have a solid advantage in the starting pitcher department. The starting pitchers for today’s game are for the Red Sox RH Doug Fister (5-8, 4.40 ERA) and he will face the Orioles RH Dylan Bundy (13-9, 4.03 ERA) Fister has pitched very well for the Red Sox this year but we believe the veteran is due for some regression. In his last start against Oakland, he allowed six runs in four innings and we believe that might be a bad sign for Fister as he pitches down the stretch. As for Bundy, he has pitched really well the last month and a half for the Orioles. In his last three starts, he is sporting a 2.84 ERA with a WHIP of 0.947. When Bundy has faced the Red Sox this year at home in two starts he has allowed only 2 runs in 12 innings pitched. The Orioles are coming home from a 10 game road trip that keeps this from being a premium pick for us. Our numbers had the Orioles at 137 and with laying only 120 at the time of this writing there is some nice value with Baltimore.
Harry Bondi
NY GIANTS (-3) over Detroit
A huge overreaction to Week 1 gets us a ton of line value here tonight. The Giants were pegged as a 6-point favorite when the opening line was posted on this game, but because Detroit won last week and the Giants lost on the road to Dallas, the line fell three points. We’re not buying it. This is still a Detroit team that can’t stand success, has a horrible defense and a QB who has a 5-46 career record against teams that finish the season with a winning record. Detroit is also just 1-14 ATS when it goes on the road the week after scoring 33 points or more. Put it all together and we’ll gladly lay the field goal with the G-Men.
SPORTS WAGERS
Detroit/N.Y. GIANTS Under 42
We’re going to sit out betting one side or the other because we’re not seeing an edge and we don’t like where the number is settling. Giants opened at a -4½ point choice before the market got a hold of it early and bet it down to -3. Over the past 24 hours or so, it hasn’t come off of -3 but now (at the time of this writing), you’ll have to pay extra vigor to back the Giants spotting 3 and that’s something we can’t get behind, at least for now. That number may increase more if Odell Beckham Jr gets the go ahead but we’re anticipating he won’t play tonight because the reports are that he’s just 3+ weeks into a 6-8 week recovery. Even if he does play, it’ll be for the purpose of being a decoy. Odell Beckham Jr wants to play but he’s not ready to.
That leaves Eli Manning without a running game and without a receiver he can rely heavily on. That’s a problem because Eli Manning is among the worst QB’s in the game. It’s time to tell the truth about Eli Manning. He gets way too much credit because he’s football royalty. Manning can’t make plays with his legs. Every Giants drive looks the same. There is nobody to hand the ball to so Eli goes underneath for two or three yards or throws into double coverage. The Giants may drive down field from time to time because of a pass interference call or a missed tackle but more often than not, they’ll go three and out or six and out. Furthermore, time of possession tells a story too. Green Bay, Dallas, Raiders and Philly were four of the top five time of possession leaders last season because all have QB’s that can extend plays. By contrast, the four worst time of possession teams last year were San Francisco, Chicago, Cleveland and you guessed it, the New York football Giants. There is a big correlation between lousy QB’s and weak time of possession numbers and the Giants with Eli Manning at QB absolutely belong at the bottom of the league. Eli Manning can’t extend drives and if you saw what Denver’s offense did to Dallas yesterday, you had better be very mindful that Eli couldn’t move five yards against Dallas last week. So, why not play Detroit tonight getting points? Because the Giants defense is GREAT.
The G-Men will win games this year because of their defense. This is a healthy, talented, quick defense that was all over everything that the ‘Boys were trying to do in Week 1. Eventually, Dallas would go on to win, 19-3 but Detroit’s offense is a fraction of what Dallas’ offense is capable of. Another reason we can’t get behind the Lions is because they struggled against Arizona in their season opener in Detroit and now they’ll have to hit the road. If you watched Arizona play yesterday and didn’t puke, then you have a stronger stomach than most. Detroit will not be able to sustain drives against the Giants great defense on the road like they did against Arizona. The 35-points that the Lions put up last week is nothing but fool’s gold. Thus, we have some choices here. First, we’re not comfortable spotting points with a Giants offense that can’t move five yards. Secondly, we’re not interested in taking the Lions on the road against what just might be the best defense in the league.
We rarely play totals mainly because we find much better value on sides but from time to time, we’ll step in on a total when it’s called for. Arizona and Detroit went over the total of 48 in Week 1 while Dallas and New York went way under the total of 46. This number is a mere four points lower than a game involving the Cowboys, in Dallas, no less and just six points lower than Arizona at Detroit. Unless there are a bunch of turnovers in scoring areas on the field, this total is likely to stay well under the number from start to finish and so playing it under the number is where all the value is in this Monday nighter.