Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Thursday, August 24th, 2017

Marc Lawrence

Panthers vs. Jaguars
Play: Jaguars Pk

Edges - Jaguars: 3-0 SUATS all-time preseason home following a home loss… Panthers: 0-3 SUATS Game Three preseason… With the Jags playing with two extra days of rest advantage in this contest, we recommend a 1* play on Jacksonville.

Mike Anthony

Dolphins vs. Eagles
Play: Eagles -3.5

The passing offense of Philadelphia - has been able to move the ball when it wanted to - as Philly had shown in their win vs Buffalo. When it begins to get really physical at the point of attack, and their control game, Philadelphia can, and will push back. With a ready to go Carson Wentz, a strong Oline, and an improved WR corps to back him up - the Eagles will come out victorious in this one. Philadelphia was able to get tons of pressure vs Buffalo at home - expect much the same here vs Miami. So, one player for Miami has the hopes and dreams of their season riding on him? Not a good thing for Dolphins hopeful. Jay Cutler is going to struggle vs an improving secondary that may not be top notch - but are experienced with one another. The passing game of the Phins has looked horrific - and Miami is still just trying to find their way and wont want to risk an injury to Cutler. Advantage, Philly in the game - by 7+. Eagles are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games

DAVE COKIN

DOLPHINS AT EAGLES
PLAY: EAGLES -3.5

I’m generally more interested in grabbing points rather than spotting them in the preseason. But for me, it’s more about gathering info as opposed to anything else, and said info has me looking at the Eagles tonight in the chalk role against the Dolphins.

The key info is courtesy of those who cover these teams most closely and are generally privy to more detail than the general observer. That certainly applies here.

These two teams have been working against one another all week in practice, and the word is that the Miami defense has had its problems with the Philly offense. The problem for the Dolphins has been with their zone defense. The secondary guys have been getting burned on a regular basis. The trench duels have been more positive, and Suh in particular has been providing all kinds of difficulty for the Eagles. But Philly also hasn’t been double teaming Suh, and I’m quite sure they will be tonight when the teams take the field for their dress rehearsal game.

That info on the Dolphins pass defense figures to be exploited by Carson Wentz and company, and the Philly offensive talent has made it clear they feel the need to get things rolling tonight. The first unit Eagles offense has been on the field for only five drives so far this preseason. They’re going to get far more extended action tonight and it sure sounds like they intend to take some deep downfield shots.

I think that’s an edge and as I’ve pointed out so many times in the past, for me betting the preseason is all about finding little edges and trying to take advantage of them. With that in mind, I’ll be siding with the Eagles to get the win and the cover tonight.

Scott Rickenbach

Panthers vs. Jaguars
Play: Panthers -120

Keep in mind that Week 3 of the Preseason is annually the week that is most like the regular season each and every year. It's considered the "dress rehearsal" week for teams as they then like to rest their starters the next week, in Week 4, as they don't want to get somebody hurt right before the regular season. With that said, let's not forget that Jacksonville is an ugly 11-37 in regular season games the last 3 seasons combined while Carolina went 15-1 in 2015 before last season's disappointing 6-10 result. That said, the Panthers are still the much more talented team and they're extra hungry heading into this season. They showed that with, even though it's "only" preseason, a Week 1 win over Houston and then last week battling back in Week 2 to tie Tennessee before eventually falling short in the 34-27 final. Carolina trailed by as many as 17 points in that game and showed a lot of heart in fighting back after being down 17-0 after one quarter. Jacksonville head coach Doug Marrone is only 2-7-2 ATS (and 4-7 SU) in NFLX action after last week's disappointing effort that saw the Jags score just 8 points. While the Jaguars have a lot of uncertainty at the QB position in terms of the starter, the Panthers get a boost with Cam Newton ready to go this week. Also, his back-ups have received plenty of work leading into this one and the Panthers have scored 27 points in each preseason game. Look for Jacksonville to struggle to keep up.

Art Aronson

Nationals vs. Astros
Play: Under 7½

A couple of capable hurlers collide in this interleague matchup and runs would appear to be at a premium.

Stephen Strasburg: He’s 10-4 with a 3.24 ERA. Strasburg returned from the DL and gave up two runs off four hits to go along with six K’s over six innings a loss to the Padres on Thursday. Strasburg looked good overall, with his fastball hitting the upper 90’s (note that he’s 7-2 with a 2.43 ERA on the road this season.)

Dallas Keuchel: He’s 11-2 with a 2.58 ERA. Keuchel gave up three hits while striking out three over seven scoreless in a 3-1 victory over the A’s on Friday. Keuchel now has two straight strong outings underneath his belt and he has to be feeling confident in this spot despite facing the hard-hitting Nats, as he’s 5-1 with a tiny 1.35 ERA at home so far this year.

The bottom line: We’re expecting these studs to battle deep and for this total to ultimately stay UNDER the posted number once it’s all said and done.

Sean Murphy

Rangers vs. Angels
Play: Under 9½

Let's try this again. Both of these teams have trended to the 'under' this season. However, two of the first three games in this series have gone 'over' the total. I look for a return to form here as the Rangers send Martin Perez to the hill against Troy Scribner. Perez has worked at least six innings in three straight starts. He was roughed up by the White Sox last time out but I'm confident we'll see him bounce back here, noting that he had given up just three earned runs over 14 innings in his two previous outings. Troy Scribner has been serviceable in two starts for the Angels. They've limited his pitch counts but I look for them to stretch him out a little more on Thursday.

Brian Hay

Rangers vs. Angels
Play: Angels -122

The Texas Rangers have now won seven of their last 10 games. The Rangers have scored five or more runs in seven of their last 10 games. The Texas Rangers have won 10 straight games when scoring more than three runs. Texas will go with Martin Perez against the Angels tonight. Perez record is 8-10 with a 5.26 ERA. Perez is 2-4 with a 3.53 ERA and 29 strikeouts in his career against the Angels. The Los Angeles Angels are 4-4 in their last eight games. The Angels counter with Troy Scribner tonight. Scribner has a 2-0 record with a 3.46 ERA. This will be Scribner’s first career game against the Rangers. The Rangers are 5-11 in Perezs last 16 road starts. The Angels are 9-4 in their last 13 home games and 5-1 their last 6 vs. American League West. The Rangers are 2-5 in Perezs last 7 starts vs. Angels. Perez has allowed five or more earned runs in four of his last seven starts and is allowing a .302 batting average on the road. We are getting a great price on the Angels tonight.

Big Al

Dodgers vs. Pirates
Pick: Dodgers -151

Those who were in attendance at PNC Park for the game last night witnessed a little bit of history. Dodger LHP Rich Hill was perfect through eight innings and held the Pirates hit-less through nine, but his night wasn't finished as the game went into extra innings with no score on either side. The Dodgers decided to bring Hill out for the 10th inning and Josh Harrison ended it with a walk-off homer for the home team. Thus Hill became one of just a handful of MLB pitchers to lose a game after throwing a nine-inning no-hitter. The L.A. offense looks to put that game behind it while starter Hyun-Jin Ryu looks to stay hot. The veteran southpaw has held the opposition scoreless in three of his last four starts. There may be reports that Ryu will be in the bullpen come October, but clearly he's trying to make that decision as difficult as possible for his coaches. Ryu is perfect vs. the Bucs, going 3-0 with a 2.79 ERA in three career starts against them.

Jim Feist

Rangers at Angels
Pick: Over

This is a good park to hit in and Texas is in town with a Top 8 offense. Martin Perez (8-10, 5.26 ERA) goes for Texas with batters hitting .306 off him. He gave up 6 runs in 6 innings the last game and the team still won 17-7. Troy Scribner has been a spot starter and when these rivals meet the Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Los Angeles.

SPORTS WAGERS

MONTREAL +101 over Winnipeg

With four wins in a row and a 6-2 overall record, the Blue Bombers are on fire and so it would seem reasonable to back them as a very small favorite in Montreal. That may be so but we’re going to stick with our philosophies here of buying low/selling high and putting more emphasis on situations rather than X’s and O’s. The CFL season hasn’t even really started yet, as nine teams will play 18 games to eliminate three teams from the playoffs. It is therefore unreasonable to expect any CFL team to maintain high intensity for the entire year and this appears to be the week that the Bombers are likely to relax a bit. Winnipeg’s four successive wins started with a 41-40 victory over these same Alouettes back in Winnipeg On July 27. You may remember that the Bombers scored 13 points in the final 58 seconds to pull out a miracle victory. The very next week, the Bombers pulled another rabbit out of their hat with a 33-30 victory over Ottawa. Last week, the Bombers played a highly anticipated home game against the then undefeated Eskimos and in front of a frenzied crowd in Winnipeg, the Bombers went wire to wire in a 33-26 victory. That was one of Winnipeg’s biggest regular season wins in a very long time and they’re still writing and talking about it in that region. The Bombers are in a massive letdown spot here in a game that means very little to them in the grand scheme of things.

The last time this market saw the Alouettes was this past Saturday in Toronto and it did not leave a good impression. Montreal was out of that game early in the second quarter when the Argonauts took a 28-0 lead five minutes into the second quarter and led 35-0 at the half. The Argos would cruise the rest of the way en route to an easy 38-6 victory. Montreal was an embarrassed football team and while we cannot guarantee a victory here, we can guarantee that there will be an intensity response. Perhaps Montreal was looking ahead to this week’s revenge game, as they had the Bombers by the throat a month ago and gave it away. Perhaps they simply were not ready but that goes back to it being unreasonable to expect teams’ to be sharp all 18 games. What we know for sure is that this situation heavily favors the Als in their own barn. We also know that Montreal outgained Winnipeg by over 100 yards on the ground back in Winnipeg four weeks ago and ended up outgaining the Bombers by 93 yards overall. Prior to that debacle last week in Toronto, Montreal had outgained four straight opponents, including the Stampeders in which Montreal defeated Calgary, 30-23. Let’s not forget that Montreal is 3-1 at home with victories over Calgary, Toronto and Saskatchewan and just a seven-point loss to B.C. In that loss to the Lions, the game was tied with three minutes remaining in the fourth quarter. So, while it appears like the Bombers are being sold short here, it is the Alouettes that are being sold short based on last week’s horrible performance. We’ll play it accordingly.

SPORTS WAGERS

Miami -1½ +127 over PHILADELPHIA

Vance Worley has struck out 37 batters in 56 innings. That’s not very good. His ERA/xERA split of 4.82/4.53 isn’t very good either. However, his batted ball profile of 60% grounders, 20% line-drives and 20% fly-balls is not only strong but it bodes well at this small ballpark. Vance Worley’s performance today likely won’t be a dominating one but we’re not buying Worley. This wager is all about fading Philadelphia’s Jake Thompson, who is set to make his third start of the year.

Thompson’s first start of 2017 occurred On July 28 against Atlanta in which he went five full and allowed five hits and two runs. That earned him another start, five days later on August 2 against the Angels. In that second start, Thompson again went five innings, only this time he was tagged for nine hits and seven runs before getting yanked. He was subsequently sent back down to Lehigh Valley, where he started two games and was whacked in the second one, as he allowed six runs in six innings. Now 22 days after his last MLB start, Thompson will make another go of it here. Last year, he went 3-6 with a 5.70 ERA in 54 innings for the Phillies. He took a step back, as his strikeout rate slipped during first taste of AAA and it slipped even further in the majors. He had a league-worst first-pitch strike rate that led to higher than expected control and he was awful versus lefties and not exactly dominant v righties either. In 15 innings at this level this year, Thompson’s balls hit hard % is 40%, which would be the second worst mark in baseball if he qualified. In 111 innings at Lehigh Valley, Thompson struck out just 84 batters while issuing 46 walks. Thompson is just 23 years old so there is still time for him to develop but right now he’s not even close. This is also a bad matchup for Thompson against a hard hitting team with both speed and power.

N.Y. Yankees +106 over DETROIT

In a day game after a night game, the Tigers almost always rest some of their vets and since they are out of it, chances are great they’ll rest one, two or more here. The Yanks are in a pennant race so Joe Girardi will treat this as another very important game. It’ll be Jamie Garcia versus Michael Fulmer here but the pitching matchup here is not our focus. Our focus here is the smoking hot Yanks’ playing the ice-cold Tigers. Also note that the Tigers rancid bullpen is beyond taxed while the Yankees outstanding ‘pen is foaming at the mouth for some work.

The Yankees have won seven of their past nine games and have scored 23 runs in the first two games of this series while the Tigers have scored six times. Detroit has one victory over its last nine games with the opposition scoring 68 times over those nine games. That’s about 7½ runs against per game. When one bets the Tigers, the last thing you want to hear is that there is “activity in the bullpen” because each pitcher is worse than the last. We’re not going to over-analyze this one. The Yanks are heating up when it counts most while the Tigers season is over and they’re playing like it. In an evenly priced game, we’ll take out chances with a New York team that is seeing beach balls at the plate and that have thrived at this park.

L.A. ANGELS -1½ +155 over Texas

Troy Scribner will make just his third start of the year but the Halos have won his previous two starts by scored of 8-6 and 5-1 over Oakland and Baltimore respectively. Scribner has mostly been a starter in his minor league career. He has proven to be very durable and could serve in a variety of roles. The tall and lean righty was originally signed as a non-drafted free agent in 2013 by Houston and was later sold to the Angels in March 2016. He’s made strides with his command in 2017 but has been victimized by the long ball. Scribner pitches aggressively and quickly and uses a variety of pitches to keep hitters off-guard. He establishes the plate with his 86-91 mph fastball and will mix in a cutter, curveball, slider, and change-up. None of his pitches would be deemed as above average or plus, but he sequences well and hits his spots. Scribner also hides the ball in his delivery which makes his offerings difficult to pick up out of his hand. Aside from all that, we’re not asking him for a miracle here, as this wager is all about fading the opposing starter.

We targeted Martin Perez in his last start in Chicago against the South Side and he was tagged for five runs in the first inning but the Rangers bailed him out by scoring 12 runs over the next four innings. Perez is now 137 innings into the year and has crashed back to earth after a hit%/strand%-fueled mirage kept his head above water for a brief stretch. Other signs are ominous too, as he doesn't miss enough bats to reverse his K-rate slide. Perez has 19 K’s over his past 36 innings and his poor xERA has held steady all year. What Martin Perez is capable of is throwing lots and lots of bad innings. His 1.57 WHIP is weak and his year-to-date xERA of 6.50 is also weak. Current Angels have a combined 139 AB’s against Perez and he has struck out a mere 16 of those while issuing 19 walks. Current Angels also have a .293 combined BA against Perez and he’s never been worse than he is right now. The Perez fade continues.

Rob Vinciletti

Winnipeg at Montreal
Play: Winnipeg -1

The Bluebombers took down Montreal earlier this year 41-40 coming back from a double digit deficit. They average nearly 40 points per game on the road and are 3-0 vs losing teams, 4-0 vs non division teams and have covered 10 of 11 on the road if the total is 52 or more. Montreal is 0-4 with revenge and 1-7 ats as a home dog of 3 or less. Play on Winnipeg to get the win.

Brad Wilton

Thursday's comp play is the Yankees this afternoon to complete the sweep of the Tigers.

New York has gotten the lumber out through the first two games of this series, scoring 13 on Tuesday, and 10 more runs last night. Meanwhile, the Tigers have only been able to come up with 6 runs to counter.

Jaime Garcia is making his 4th start for New York, and he has not been all that effective, but his counterpart Michael Fulmer is working on erasing a 5 start losing skid. One of those starts came in New York against the Yankees where he was roughed up pretty good - 6 innings, 7 runs - 6 of them earned.

The Tigers sport just one win over their last 9, while the Yankees have won 7 of their last 9.

Go with New York to get the brooms out at Comerica Park!

2* N.Y. YANKEES

BRANDON LEE

Yankees vs. Tigers
Play: Tigers -115

Detroit comes into this game having lost 8 of their last 9 and have been outscored 23-6 in the first two games of this series against the Yankees. The fact that the Tigers are favored tells you everything you need to know about what side the books think will win this game, as the public is going to pound New York. The thing is, Detroit is playing at home and have the edge on the mound with Michael Fulmer facing off against Jaime Garcia. Fulmer has a solid 3.60 ERA and 1.136 WHIP in 23 starts. He's been much better at home (3.37 ERA) and just pitched a gem at home against a loaded Dodgers lineup, allowing 1 run (0 earned) on 3 hits in 7 innings. Garcia is 5-8 with a 4.52 ERA and 1.382 WHIP in 22 starts and owns a 6.32 ERA and 1.723 WHIP in his last 3 starts.