NFL betting trends, odds and predictions for Sunday, August 20th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
Sunday's NFL Preseason Betting Primer
Covers.com
Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers (+3, 39)
Falcons: Star wideout Julio Jones and recently paid running back Devonta Freeman will both sit out Sunday’s game in Pittsburgh. Jones is still recovering from a foot injury, while Freeman in the NFL’s concussion protocol.
However Matt Ryan will play and he will still have Tevin Coleman at his disposal in the backfield and both could play at least for the first quarter Sunday. Ryan picked up where he left off last season, going 3-for-3 for 32 yards and a score in his one series in Week 1 of the preseason.
Steelers: Pittsburgh will also be without two major weapons, as Ben Roehtlisberger and Antonio Brown have both been ruled out for this game, head coach Mike Tomlin confirmed on Friday. Both Steelers' stars have yet to suit up this preseason.
So with Big Ben out and backup Landry Jones still dealing with an abdominal injury, rookie Joshua Dobbs is expected to make his second consecutive start for Pittsburgh. Expect Dobbs to play into at least the third quarter of Sunday's game. The first year pivot out Tennessee was 8-for-15 for 100 yards, with one touchdown and two interceptions in his exhibition debut.
Line History: Oddsmakers opened the Steelers as slight two-point home favorites for this exhibition matchup. But once word got out that they would not only be without Le’Veon Bell, but Roethlisberger and Brown as well, the line jumped the fence in dramatic fashion moving a total of five points to the current number of Falcons -3. The total meanwhile, hit the board at 39.5 and has been bet down a half-point to the current number of 39. Check out the complete line history here.
New Orleans Saints at Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5, 42.5)
Saints: Here is a funny stat that probably means nothing, but, the Saints are 0-10 straight up and against the spread in their last 10 preseason games. Head coach Sean Payton said he “hadn't really paid too much attention to it," Thursday after joint practices with the Chargers, but maybe it could provide just a little more motivation for the Saints.
Quarterback Drew Brees sat out his team’s opener, but is expected to play anywhere from one series, to the whole first quarter. It will probably have to be the latter for the Saints to end this preseason skid.
Chargers: However, maybe Philip Rivers will be just as motivated to show up his old mentor in Brees. Rivers, who replaced Brees in San Diego, got his preseason off to a hot start last week, going 5-for-six for 56 yards and a touchdown.
Rivers will have some help Sunday as wide receiver Keenan Allen is expected to suit up for the Chargers. Rivers should be thrilled to have his top receiving target back in the fold after Allen missed the large majority of 2016 with an injury. So expect the tandem to try and regain their old chemistry for at least the first quarter of Sunday’s game.
Line History: The Chargers opened this game as three-point home faves (if you want to count the diminutive StubHub Stadium as a real NFL home) and bettors have moved that number to Chargers -3.5. The total opened at 43 and has been bet down slightly to 42.5. Check out the complete line history here.
Sunday's Best Bet
Vegasinsider.com
New Orleans Saints vs. L.A. Chargers
Odds: New Orleans (+3) at L.A (-3); Total 43
Although it's only the preseason, the Chargers first showing in front of their new L.A fans couldn't have been more embarrassing.
Last week's 48-17 loss to Seattle was crushing on all levels as the Chargers did next to nothing to endear themselves to their new home. Four turnovers (two fumbles, two INT's) ultimately did L.A in and the only good news to come out of it all was the fact that it is still just preseason and wins and losses don't matter.
However, repeated performances like that in front of L.A fans who are known to turn their back on “losers” in a heartbeat, is going to make the Chargers transition to L.A rather tough.
New Orleans didn't have a great start to 2017 either with a 20-14 loss to Cleveland, but by no means was it embarrassing in the same fashion that the Chargers Week 1 defeat was. The Saints enter 2017 as a team built like we've come to expect from them, having an offense that will lead the charge and do all the heavy lifting, and a defense that hopefully can get one more stop than the other guy.
Last week's game did show some signs of improvement on defense as 13 of Cleveland's 20 points came in a 4th quarter against guys that are highly unlikely to make the Saints roster. But it was still the Browns though, and almost any NFL defense over the past few years can make a case that they are the greatest out there after they've faced Cleveland.
Therefore, we've got one team in New Orleans who is looking for more of the same (on the whole) this week, and another team in L.A that wants wholesale improvements across the board. From a strictly motivational standpoint – and let's be honest, “motivation” in the preseason is used loosely – this spot favors the Chargers in spades.
LA can't afford to have another disastrous outing at home, and the Saints, well, they are just looking to head home healthy and making progress.
Secondly, from the standpoint of NFL bettors seeing the Chargers as 3-point favorites after they lost by 30+ a week ago, there aren't many that will feel confident in even considering laying the points.
Yet, L.A held a 14-10 lead over Seattle after the 1st quarter a week ago, and QB Philip Rivers did go 5-for-6 with a TD throwing the ball. Give that unit (and even the second unit) more time this week and those positive signs should show up again for the Chargers this week.
Just like in Week 2 regular season games, you shouldn't over-react to what happened in Week 1, and this game in itself is a great primer for bettors to remind themselves of that fact.
L.A has all the weapons on offense to keep up with a Saints team that's built to score, but with a bigger rebound needed in Chargers-land, expect the home team to treat this Week 2 preseason game as a pseudo-season opener.
Best Bet: L.A Chargers -3