College Football Betting News and Notes Saturday, August 26th, 2017

College Football Week 1

Colorado State returns 8 starters from team that lost 61-50 to Idaho in bowl game LY; Rams are 13-6-1 vs spread in non-MW games the last four years, 4-4-1 under Bobo. CSU is 13-5 vs spread as a home favorite since 2012, 5-2 under Bobo. Rams have senior QB with 21 starts; their OL has 64 returning starts. Since 2014, Oregon State is 5-11 vs spread on road; Beavers are 9-10 vs spread as an underdog under Anderson. OSU’s OL has 56 returning starts. JC transfer Luton gets first OSU start at QB; the 2nd-string QB transferred. Last two years, Pac-12 teams are 14-8-1 vs spread when facing a Mountain West squad.

Very long road trip for Hawai’i squad that is 0-4 vs spread as a road favorite the last six years. Rainbows (-7.5) beat UMass 46-40 at home LY- total yardage was 479-459. Hawai’i has soph QB who started 10 games LY; their offensive line has 79 returning starts, so it’s a veteran group. UMass has only 29 starts back on OL; their junior QB has nine starts under his belt, Minutemen are 4-6 vs spread as a home underdog under Whipple. Since 2012, UMass is 20-28 vs spread as an underdog.

South Florida has new coach, young OL (40 returning starts) but a senior QB with 26 starts. Since 2013, Bulls are 5-3 vs spread as a road favorite; since ’09, they’re 22-18 vs spread in non-league games. San Jose State has most experienced offensive line (125 returning starts) in country, but also has a new coach, new QB; Spartans are 8-5 vs spread in last 13 games as a home underdog. Last five years, Mountain West teams are 5-4 vs spread when facing an AAC opponent. USF went to bowl last two years, going +19 in turnovers.

Stanford (-35) whacked Rice 41-17 at home LY, running ball for 373 yards; they outgained the Owls, 528-291. Since 2013, Cardinal is 6-9-1 vs spread in non-league games; they play USC in first game back in US, in two weeks. Stanford had 8 starters back on both sides of ball but has new QB- they’re 12-9 vs spread in last 21 games as a favorite. Rice has an experienced OL (92 returning starts) but also has new QB; since ’14, Owls are 7-11-1 vs spread as an underdog- they’re 14-6-2 vs spread in last 22 non-league games. This game is in Australia.

Armadillosports.com

Pac-12 Report - Week 1
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com

Oregon State at Colorado State

The Beavers hit the road for Fort Collins to clash with the Rams in the first game on the 2017 College Football regular season schedule, and first game at CSU's brand spanking new facility. Oregon State didn't have the greatest of seasons last year, but they did finish with seven covers across their final eight outings while winning their final two games straight up. However, they were blanked in five tries on the road in 2016, going 3-2 ATS, and they're 0-13 SU/4-9 ATS across their past 13 trips since their last road win in Colorado on Oct. 4, 2014. Colorado State made a bowl appearance last season, losing 61-50 in a shootout. That was par for the course, as they scored 37 or more points in each of their final six games while covering the last seven games of the regular season, and 10 of 11. Oregon State will turn to QB Jake Luton, a JUCO transfer, to try and turn around one of the worst passing offenses among Power 5 Conference members.

Stanford at Rice

Stanford and Rice will do battle down under, and Aussies might be treated to a beatdown. The Cardinal are favored by 31 points. It was a strange season for the Cardina. They still ended up with 10 wins, but it was disappointing by their standards. That shows how high the bar has been set in Palo Alto. They were humbled 44-6 in Washington Sept. 30, 2016, and belted 42-16 by Washington State at home. On Oct. 22, they were 4-3 SU/ATS through seven games and people wondered aloud if mediocrity was back in the Bay Area. But the Cardinal ripped off six wins, including their bowl game, to get to 10 wins. They lost Christian McCaffrey to the NFL, but they should be just fine going into 2017. Stanford is just 2-3 ATS over their past five regular season openers, and they lost straight-up at Northwestern the last time they opened somewhere outside of Palo Alto. They topped the Owls 41-17 to close the regular season last year, and the Cardinal are replacing key personnel. Will it be enough for the Owls to stay within the number?

Saturday's Early Tips
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

Oregon State at Colorado State

Gary Andersen is entering his third season of a rebuild job in Corvallis after he left Wisconsin to replace Mike Riley at Oregon State. The Beavers went 2-10 straight up and 3-9 against the spread in his first year, improving to 4-8 SU and 8-4 versus the number last season. They finished 2016 on a tear for our purposes, compiling a 7-1 spread record in their last eight games, winning outright in their last two outings at home vs. Arizona (42-17) and Oregon (34-24).

Andersen named juco transfer Jake Luton his starting quarterback in mid-August, prompting Marcus McMaryion to leave the program for Fresno State as a grad transfer. McMaryion started the last six games for the Beavers in 2016. For the season, he completed 59.4 percent of his passes for 1,286 yards with a 10/5 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Oregon State returns seven starters on offense and eight on defense. OSU is loaded in the backfield with running back Ryan Nall returning. Nall rushed for 951 yards and 13 TDs while averaging 6.5 yards per carry. RB Artavis Pierce had a solid true freshman season in ’16, rushing for 523 yards and four TDs with a 5.3 YPC average. Andersen landed a pair of grad transfers for depth, including Trevorris Johnson from TCU and Oregon’s Thomas Tyner, who is a former 5-star recruit but hasn’t played since 2014 due to injuries. Nall also had 22 catches for 214 yards and two TDs last year, while Pierce had 21 receptions for 132 yards and one TD.

Oregon State junior WR Seth Collins is ‘out’ against the Rams due to a finger injury that could keep him sidelined into September. Collins, who started seven games at QB in 2015 before logging nine starts at WR last season, had 36 receptions for 418 yards and one TD in 2016.

As of Aug. 18, most betting shops had Colorado State installed as a 3.5-point favorite. One offshore book opened the total at 62 on Aug. 13, but it moved down to 61 a day later and remained there on Aug. 18. By Tuesday of this week (8/22), the total was at 58.5 or 59 at most spots, while the Rams remained 3.5-point home ‘chalk’ (with a couple of shops at four). Gamblers can take the Beavers on the money line for a +155 return (risk $100 to win $155).

Oregon State owns a 5-6 spread record as a road underdog during Anderson’s brief tenure. The Beavers are winless in those 11 road assignments, but we’ll point out that they did take the cash in last year’s season-opening loss at Minnesota by a 30-23 count as 13-point ‘dogs.

Colorado State has finished 7-6 in both of its first two seasons under Mike Bobo, the former QB and long-time offensive coordinator at Georgia before getting his first head-coaching gig at CSU. The Rams were an impressive 9-4 ATS last year, going 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS at home. They have compiled a 5-2 spread record in seven games as home favorites on Bobo’s watch.

CSU brings back six starters on offense and eight on defense. Bobo’s team returns its top four rushers, two excellent QBs and three of its top four WRs. Nick Stevens completed 64.2 percent of his passes for 1,936 yards with a 19/5 TD-INT ratio in ’16. He also ran for a pair of scores. Stevens has a 41/17 career TD-INT ratio in 21 career starts, but he was intercepted only three times in his last seven starts of last season. He was a second-team All-MWC selection in ’15.

As a true freshman in ’16, CSU’s Collin Hill was named the starting QB in Week 3. He would go 2-2 in four starts before going down with a season-ending injury in a 31-24 home win over Utah State Before the injury, Hill connected on 58.1 percent of his throws for 1,096 yards with an 8/2 TD-INT ratio. Stevens has been named the starter, but Hill is healthy and ready to go.

Stevens has one of the best wideouts in the Mountain West Conference in senior Michael Gallup, who earned first-team All-MWC honors after catching 76 balls for 1,272 yards and 14 TDs in ’16. Olabisi Johnson had 28 receptions for 613 yards and four TDs last season, averaging 21.9 yards per catch.

Colorado State’s offensive line is anchored by center Jake Bennett, a second-team All-MWC selection last year who has 29 career starts to his credit. The only other o-line starter that’s back is senior OT Zack Golditch, who has made 25 career starts. This unit will look to pave holes for Dalyn Dawkins, Izzy Matthews, Marvin Kinsey and Detrich Clark, who combined to rush for nearly 2,300 yards and 27 rushing TDs last year.

Kinsey rushed for a team-best 919 yards and four TDs with a 5.7 YPC average last season. Matthews rushed for 734 yards and a team-high 13 TDs while averaging 4.8 YPC. Kinsey, who is listed as ‘questionable’ vs. OSU with a knee injury, rushed for 546 yards and seven TDs with a 5.9 YPC average. Clark has moved to WR after rushing for 247 yards and three TDs on 36 attempts (6.9 YPC).

CSU junior DB Braylin Scott is out indefinitely due to legal issues. Scott recorded 39 tackles and three interceptions last year. Senior LB Deonte Clyburn, a likely starter if he can get back to 100-percent health remained out indefinitely due to blood clots. Clyburn redshirted last season for a similar issue, but he registered 74 tackles and seven tackles for loss in ’15.

These schools have met twice before, splitting a pair of meetings, but they haven’t faced each other since 1975. This is OSU’s first trip to Ft. Collins and it is only the fourth time a Power Five opponent has come here since 2004. Andersen went 1-1 against the Rams when he was the head coach at Utah State prior to leaving for Wisconsin.

Hawaii at Massachusetts

As of Aug. 18, this game was a pick ‘em at many spots, while others had either team favored by one point. One offshore shop opened the total at 64, but it went up to 64.5 the next day and that’s where it remained as of Aug. 18. By Tuesday of this week (8/22), most books had UMass favored by 1.5 or two with the total down to 62.5 points.

Hawaii went 7-7 SU and 5-8-1 ATS last season, going to its first bowl game since 2010 in its first year under head coach Nick Rolovich. The Warriors thumped Middle Tennessee by a 52-35 count as seven-point home underdog in the Hawaii Bowl. However, we should note that the Blue Raiders were without their star QB Brent Stockstill.

During Norm Chow’s dismal tenure at Hawaii from 2012-2015, the Warriors lost 23 of 24 road games. However, they went 3-3 on the road last year under Rolovich, winning outright at San Jose State, at Air Force (in double overtime as 16.5-point ‘dogs) and at Fresno State

Hawaii returns eight starters on offense and six on defense. The offense is led by sophomore QB Dru Brown, who took over as the starter after the Warriors lost three of their first four games last season. Brown completed 62.4 percent of his throws for 2,488 yards with a 19/7 TD-INT ratio. He loses his favorite target Marcus Kemp, but the team has plenty of depth and experience at the WR position. As a redshirt freshman in ’16, John Ursua hauled in 53 receptions for 652 yards and three TDs. Dylan Collie added 33 catches for 322 yards and four TDs.

Hawaii RB Diocemy Saint Juste rushed for a team-high 1,006 yards and three TDs last year, averaging 6.1 YPC in the process. He also had eight catches for 56 yards and one TD.

Hawaii’s defense is led by All-American candidate Jahlani Tavai, a junior LB who garnered first-team All-MWC honors after tallying 129 tackles, 12.5 tackles for loss, seven sacks, four QB hurries, two forced fumbles, two passes broken up, one fumble recovery and one interception in ’16. Senior safety Trayvon Henderson is another standout, recording 90 tackles, 8.5 TFL’s, two sacks, seven PBU, one QB hurry, one blocked kick and three interceptions, including one pick-six. This unit gave up 37.3 points per game in ’16 and has a new coordinator in Legi Suiaunoa, who has been a d-line coach at Montana (’11-’15) and Hawaii since 2011.

UMass finished ’16 with a 2-10 SU record and a 7-5 ATS mark. Although the Minutemen are an abysmal 8-28 SU since HC Mark Whipple took over for his second stint here in ’14, they have been decent for our purposes with a 19-17 ATS record.

UMass lost three one-possession games last season and picked up its wins at home vs. FIU (21-13) and vs. Wagner (34-10). The Minutemen faced three SEC opponents, going 3-0 ATS in losses at Florida (24-7), vs. Mississippi State (47-35) and at South Carolina (34-28). They bring back six starters on offense and nine on defense.

Junior QB Andrew Ford started nine of 12 games last year, throwing for 2,665 yards with a 26/14 TD-INT ratio. He also ran for a pair of scores. Ford has one of the nation’s best tight ends, former five-star recruit Adam Breneman who signed with Penn State out of high school and was prep teammates with Ford. In his first season with UMass, Breneman made 70 catches for 808 yards and eight TDs. Junior WR Andy Isabella is off an excellent sophomore year when he brought down 62 balls for 801 yards and seven TDs. UMass also returns leading rusher Marquis Young, who had 898 rushing yards and four TDs with a 4.6 YPC average in ’16.

When these teams met in the regular-season finale last season at Aloha Stadium in Honolulu, Hawaii captured a 46-40 win but the Minutemen took the money as a 7.5-point road underdog. The 86 combined points soared ‘over’ the 57-point total. Trailing 40-26 with less than seven minutes remaining, UMass scored a pair of TDs in less than 90 seconds to pull even. However, Brown would find Kellan Ewaliko on a 56-yard scoring strike with 3:52 left to provide the winning points. For bettors who might’ve bought the hook to seven from 7.5 with a Hawaii wager, they were left furious (& push-less) when the extra-point kick was missed.

B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets

BYU will square off with FCS opponent Portland State in Provo on Saturday at 3:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN. This game did not have a spread as of Tuesday, but some books will probably throw up a number by later Friday afternoon. Most games between FBS and FCS teams eventually get a line, but the books usually don’t release it until late Friday or early Saturday.

Georgia Tech took a big loss late last week when sophomore RB Dedrick Mills was kicked off the team for undisclosed reasons. Mills led the Yellow Jackets in rushing as a true freshman, gaining 771 yards and scoring 12 TDs with a 5.1 YPC average. They open at the new Mercedes Dome in Atlanta against Tennessee in Week 1.

Mark Richt named junior Malik Rosier as Miami’s starting QB on Aug. 22. Rosier threw for 272 yards in his only career start in ’15 when the Hurricanes won at Duke on the wild and controversial finish with laterals galore on the kick return as time expired.

Kentucky senior WR Dorian Baker is out for an indefinite period of time with an ankle injury, and there’s speculation he could done for the entire season. Baker has started 23 career games, producing 88 receptions for 1,015 yards and six TDs. He had a team-best 55 catches in ’15.

Rutgers has named ex-Louisville QB Kyle Bolin as its starter for the opener vs. Washington.

Florida landed a transfer on Monday when Texas offensive lineman Jean Delance decided to become a Gator. Delance was a four-star recruit for the Longhorns in the ’16 class. He’ll sit out this year per transfer rules and then have three years of eligibility for UF.

Saturday's Late Tips
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

South Florida at San Jose State

As of Friday afternoon, most betting shops had USF installed as a 21.5-point favorite with a total of 71.5 points for ‘over/under’ wagers. The total was at 66.5 on Wednesday, moving five points in the span of just 48 hours. The Bulls were favored by 20.5 earlier in the week, but the number on the side eventually slipped north of the key number of 21. Most spots had the Spartans with 10/1 odds on the money line (risk $100 to win $1,000).

South Florida lost head coach Willie Taggart to Oregon, but it found an excellent replacement in Charlie Strong. Strong cut his teeth as a long-time defensive coordinator at multiple SEC schools like Florida and South Carolina before a strong run as head coach at Louisville, where he went 11-2 and 12-1 in ’12 and ‘13. That success earned him an offer at Texas, which came with greenbacks galore but was never going to be a good fit. The Texas job brings with it the demands of The Longhorn Network, something that worked perfectly for Mack Brown but was never going to mesh with Strong’s personality. So he gets a fresh start right in the heart of an area he’s thrived in as a recruiter for more than two decades. Strong inherits enough talent and such a soft schedule that going undefeated is a realistic goal.

USF returns seven starters on offense and nine on defense from a team that finished 11-2 with its only losses coming vs. FSU and at Temple (on a short week in a cold-weather game). The Bulls beat South Carolina 46-39 in overtime at the Birmingham Bowl. Seven of their victories came by margins of 15 points or more.

Marlon Mack, the school’s all-time leading rusher who produced 3,609 yards on the ground in three seasons, elected to skip his senior season to turn pro a year early. But D’Ernest Johnson is a capable replacement who ran for 543 yards and eight TDs while averaging 4.9 yards per carry in 2016.

Senior QB Quinton Flowers will break Mack’s school rushing record if he can duplicate the 1,530 rushing yards he produced last year. Flowers is third in school annals currently with 2,594 career rushing yards. He had 18 TDs on the ground last year. Flowers also completed 65.2 percent of his passes for 2,812 yards with a 24/7 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

USF lost Flowers’ favorite target in Rodney Adams (67 catches for 822 yards), but four of the top five pass catchers are back. Senior WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling started all 13 games in ’16, hauling in 22 receptions for 415 yards and five TDs. Tyre McCants had 25 catches for 384 yards and four TDs, while Johnson had 28 grabs for 293 yards and five TDs.

USF averaged 43.8 points per game last season, but it also gave up 31.6 PPG. Strong’s ‘D’ will be led by senior LB Auggie Sanchez, a second-team All-AAC selection in ’16 when he recorded 120 tackles, six sacks, 2.5 tackles for loss, three passes broken up, one interception, one forced fumble, one fumble recovery and one QB hurry. Senior CB Deatrich Nichols was also a second-team All-AAC pick last season. He had 49 tackles, four interceptions, seven PBU and two TFL’s.

USF senior WR Ryeshene Bronson is listed as ‘doubtful’ with a shoulder injury. He has started 17 career games.

San Jose St. limped to a 4-8 SU record with a 6-6 ATS mark last year, resulting in the dismissal of Ron Caragher after four seasons. He took the Trojans to only one bowl game. His replacement is Brent Brennan, a first-time head coach who has spent the last six years serving as the WR coach at Oregon St. Brennan served as an assistant on the staffs of both Dick Tomey (’05-’10) and Mike MacIntyre (’11-’16) at San Jose St. Brennan has hired Andrew Sowder as his offensive coordinator, and the former Baylor tight tend is the youngest FBS coordinator at the age of 28.

San Jose St. has compiled an 8-5 spread record in 13 games as a home underdog since 2011. The Spartans beat UNLV outright as a three-point home ‘dogs last year before taking the cash in a 41-38 loss to Air Force as 11-point puppies.

San Jose St. brings back seven starters on offense and eight on defense. Five of the defenses’ top six tacklers return, including junior LB Frank Ginda, who recorded 99 tackles, 6.5 sacks, five tackles for loss, one interception and one pass broken up in 2016. Phil Steele’s magazine ranks the Spartans’ secondary as the best in the Mountain West Conference thanks to the presence of senior cornerback Andre Chachere, who finished ’16 with 14 PBU (tops in the MWC), four interceptions (fourth in the MWC) and a spot on the first-team of All-MWC selections. Senior safety Maurice McKnight had 68 tackles, two interceptions, three PBU and one QB hurry.

San Jose St. posted a 3-3 SU record and a 4-2 ATS ledger last year. The wins came over Portland St., Nevada and UNLV, while the Spartans picked up their other victory at Fresno St. in the regular-season finale. They lost six of their games by margins of 14 points or more.

San Jose St. returns its leading rusher and two of its top three WRs. Junior RB Malik Roberson rushed for a team-best 508 yards and two TDs with a 5.1 YPC average despite starting only three games. Justin Holmes hauled in 39 receptions for 613 yards and three TDs, while fellow junior wideout Tre Hartley caught 33 balls for 572 yards and four TDs.

USF owns 4-2 spread record in its last six games as a road favorite.

Stanford vs. Rice

This is the second Sydney Cup game that will take place in Australia at Allianz Stadium, where California defeated Hawaii by a 51-31 count last August. The facility has a capacity of 45,500 and is used for rugby and soccer.

As of Friday afternoon, most books had Stanford installed as an enormous 30.5-point favorite with a total of 51.5 points. Not many shops are offering a money-line return on the Owls, but they are available for a +4750 payout at 5Dimes.eu (risk $100 to win $,4750).

Stanford returns 16 of 22 starters (eight on each side of the ball) from a team that went 10-3 SU and 6-6-1 ATS last season. The Cardinal dropped three of four games midway through the year before finishing with a six-game winning streak, including a 25-23 victory over North Carolina at the Sun Bowl.

With the exception of an 8-5 record in 2014, Stanford has posted double-digit win totals in five of six seasons on David Shaw’s watch. The Cardinal has won at least 11 games in four of those years and it has won 12 twice.

Stanford lost its top two tacklers from a salty defense that allowed only 20.4 PPG, but it has eight of its top 10 tacklers back. This unit is led by junior LB Joey Alferi, who had 51 tackles, five sacks, 5.5 TFL’s, nine QB hurries, two interceptions and one PBU last season. Junior DT Harrison Phillips was a third-team All Pac-12 selection in ’16 when he had 46 tackles, 6.5 sacks, three TFL’s, three QB hurries and one PBU.

Stanford’s offense struggled last year, averaging just 26.3 PPG. This unit improved when Keller Chryst became the starter in the last six games (all wins), but he tore his ACL in the bowl game. Nevertheless, he has recovered and will get the starting nod in this spot. The junior signal caller connected on 56.6 percent of his throws for 905 yards with a 10/2 TD-INT ratio. His top two WRs are back, including Trenton Irwin, who had 37 receptions for 442 yards and one TD. JJ Arcega-Whiteside had 24 catches for 379 yards and five TDs.

Look for Stanford TE Kaden Smith to emerge as one of the nation’s top redshirt freshman. The five star recruit out of Marcus High School in the Dallas area chose Stanford over Alabama. Still bouncing back from a knee injury sustained during his senior year of HS and with plenty of depth at “Tight End U,” the Cardinal opted to redshirt Smith in ’16 but he’s poised to make an instant impact now.

Stanford lost RB Christian McCaffrey, the school’s third all-time leading rusher who produced 1,603 rushing yards, 13 TDs and a 6.3 YPC average last year. There’s a more-than-able replacement ready to step in and fill his shoes, however. Junior RB Bryce Love rushed for 783 yards and three TDs in ’16, averaging 7.1 YPC. He also had eight catches for 83 yards and one TD.

These schools met in last season’s regular-season finale with Stanford capturing a 41-17 victory in Palo Alto. Rice took the cash, however, covering the 35-point number as a massive road underdog. Gamblers on the total were looking at a push until Rice scored a TD with only 1:17 remaining to get the 58 combined points ‘over’ the 51-point tally. Chryst completed 11-of-16 passes for 154 yards and two TDs without an interception. He also had a 62-yard TD run to open the scoring early in the first quarter. McCaffrey ran for 204 yards and one TD, while Love had 111 rushing yards and one TD on just seven carries.

Rice finished 3-9 SU and 6-5-1 ATS in David Bailiff’s 10th season at the helm in 2016. It was the worst season on Bailiff’s watch since going 2-10 in 2009. He also went 3-9 in the first year of his tenure at the Conference USA school in Houston. Baliff’s overall record at Rice is 56-69, but he has led the school to a pair of 10-wins seasons (2008 & 2013) and a 3-1 record in four bowl games. Nevertheless, this is obviously a crucial year for C-USA’s second-longest tenured coach. (Middle Tennessee’s Rick Stockstill is entering his 12th season.)

Rice returns seven starters on offense and eight on defense. The Owls’ defense is led by senior LB Emmanuel Ellerbee, a first-team All C-USA selection last season when he recorded 118 tackles, 3.5 sacks, 4.5 TFL’s, three QB hurries, one PBU and one interception. They gave up 37.3 PPG in ’16.

A three-man race for the Rice starting QB job was won by redshirt freshman Sam Glaesmann, who stands 6’3” and threw for 178 yards and accounted for three TDs in the team’s spring game. The Waco Midway HS product had a 70-yard TD run in the scrimmage. Glaesmann threw for 3,017 yards and 29 TDs while also rushing for 605 yards and four TDs as a prep senior.

Rice’s leading rusher Sam Stewart is back. The junior rushed for 479 yards and three TDs with a 6.3 YPC average in ’16. Stewart also had 15 receptions for 107 yards and three TDs.

B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets

UCLA senior OT Kenny Lacy sustained a hip injury earlier this week that required season-ending surgery. Lacy has made 21 career starts at OG and OT, and he was a third-team preseason All Pac-12 selection in Phil Steele’s magazine.

According to the Toledo Blade, Bowling Green junior free safety Jamari Bozeman is out for at least the season opener at Michigan St. due to an upper-leg injury. The newspaper implied Bozeman could be out much longer by stating that, “his status for the rest of the season is uncertain.” Bozeman is the Falcons’ leading returning tackler. He recorded 71 tackles, 1.5 TFL’s, three PBU and three interceptions last year.

Iowa sophomore starting CB Manny Rugamba has been suspended for the season opener vs. Wyoming due to an offseason team violation. Rugamba started three of 12 games for the Hawkeyes in ’16, producing 19 tackles, four PBU, two interceptions and one-half TFL.

With a hat tip to ESPN Chalk’s David Payne Pardum, here are the best and worst ATS teams since 2012:

Best:
1-Temple 39-24
2-Colorado St. 38-24
3-Duke 30-20
3-Georgia St. 30-20
5-Rice 36-25

Worst:
UConn 18-40
South Alabama 23-41
Kansas 22-37
California 23-38
Arizona 25-40

Oregon State meets Colorado State
By: StatFox.com

The college football season opens as high-scoring Colorado State debuts their new stadium, hosting Oregon State.

Oregon State showed some improvement in Gary Andersen’s second year as head coach, salvaging a rough 2016 season with wins over Arizona and Oregon to close the year at 4-8. Much like it was during his time at Wisconsin, Andersen’s offense is based around an effective running game that is chock full of talent, and junior college star QB Jake Luton is primed to improve a passing game that was impotent last season. The defense has a lot of work to do if the Beavers are going to play in a bowl game, though a handful of promising young players are returning. Colorado State righted the ship after a 3-4 start to 2016, winning four of their last five regular season games to earn a bowl berth. Unfortunately, their flimsy defense allowed 606 total yards in a 61-50 Famous Idaho Potato Bowl loss to Idaho. While the defense was inconsistent, the Rams offense was a juggernaut in the second half of last season and returns all of its skill position talent, including QB Nick Stevens and All-MWC WR Michael Gallup. These two teams haven’t met since 1975, and this will be the first game ever played at CSU’s new on-campus stadium. This game was moved from Sep. 23 to “Week Zero” because Colorado State’s conference schedule locked them into playing 12-straight weeks with the season’s final week off; the rescheduling of this game allows them a Week 4 bye. Oregon State has lost its last 13 road games, going 5-8 ATS in that span, which dates back to Oct. 2014. Colorado State was 5-1 SU & 4-1-1 ATS at home in 2016.

Oregon State relies heavily on the ground game. RB Ryan Nall scored 15 TD while averaging 95.1 rushing yards per game and 6.5 yards per carry last season, and RB Artavis Pierce (529 rushing yards, 5.3 yards per carry) tallied 111 total yards and two TD in his lone start last season. Transfer RBs Thomas Tyner (Oregon) and Trevorris Johnson (TCU) give the Beavers a deep stable of capable runners. OSU managed just 174 passing yards per game last season (100th in the nation), but junior college transfer QB Jake Luton, who threw for 3,551 yards and 40 TD at Ventura College last season, should upgrade the passing attack. Returning WRs Jordan Villamin (1,491 career receiving yards) and Seth Collins, an athletic former QB, give Luton skilled targets to work with. The Beavers defense allowed 185.5 rushing yards per game (105th in FBS) and 5.3 yards per carry (114th), but returns most of its key players in the defensive front, including LBs Manase Hungalu (83 total tackles) and Bright Ugwoegbu (5.5 sacks, 11 TFL). The secondary was the strength of the defense, allowing just 6.3 yards per pass attempt (16th in FBS) last season. While two starters are gone, CB Xavier Crawford, a Freshman All-American last year, has a chance to be special.

Colorado State QB Nick Stevens was benched after an awful Week 1 showing, but when injuries forced him back into the lineup, the Rams averaged 44.3 points per game in the second half of the year. Stevens threw for 1,856 yards, 19 TD and three INT in those seven games, and he has a firm grasp on the starting gig entering 2017. Top WRs Michael Gallup (1,272 yards, 14 TD) and Bisi Johnson (613 yards, 4 TD) return, as does moving chess piece Detrich Clark, a former junior college QB who’s listed as WR but logged 37 carries for 250 yards and three TD in 2016. Last season’s productive RB trio of Dalyn Dawkins (1,081 total yards, 5 total TD), Izzy Matthews (790, 13) and Marvin Kinsey (593, 6) is also still intact. CSU’s defense endured an up-and-down season, shutting out Fresno State in early November, but allowing 49 points to Air Force the next week and 61 points to Idaho in a bowl game. LB Deonte Clyburn, a top performer in 2015, returns after missing all of last season because of blood clots. Josh Watson (90 total tackles, 7.5 TFL), Evan Colorito (10 TFL) and Tre Thomas (7 TFL) round out a solid linebacking unit. The Rams allowed a whopping 8.5 passing yards per attempt (117th in the nation), but return some experience, including safeties Jake Schlager (72 total tackles) and Braylin Scott (3 INT). The defensive line also returns plenty of veterans to a unit that struggled last year, led by DLs Toby McBride (4 sacks, 7 TFL) and Jakob Buys (3 sacks, 4 TFL).

San Jose St hosts #21 USF
By: StatFox.com

AAC favorite #21 South Florida begins its quest for a New Year’s Six bowl bid with a trip to San Jose State on college football’s opening night.

Coming off an 11-2 season and a bowl win over South Carolina, South Florida enters the 2017 as the only Group of Five team ranked in the Coaches Poll. 2016 head coach Willie Taggart was hired by Oregon, and former Louisville and Texas head coach Charlie Strong takes the reins in Tampa. He inherits a plethora of offensive talent, most notably returning conference player of the year dual-threat QB Quinton Flowers. Defense is Strong’s forte, and he has his work cut out for him with a unit that dragged the Bulls into shootouts more often than not last year. New San Jose State head coach Brent Brennan, an assistant at Oregon State from 2011-2016 who cut his teeth on staff with SJSU before that, enters a far less enviable situation than Strong. The Spartans have some skill position talent, but are stuck with a porous O-line and haven’t found an answer at QB. The defense is coming off an inconsistent season with some talent in the back end, but needs to show immediate improvement up front to have any hopes of keeping Flowers and company in check. This is the first meeting between these two teams. USF is 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in road games since November 2015, and the Bulls are 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS when favored by 12 points or more in the past two seasons. In the past ten seasons, SJSU is 2-11 SU & 9-4 ATS as double-digit underdog at home. The Spartans are, however, 1-9 SU & 3-7 ATS against non-conference FBS opponents since 2014.

2016 AAC Offensive Player of the Year QB Quinton Flowers is a dynamic dual-threat, running for 1,530 yards (fourth most ever by an FBS QB) and 18 TD while throwing for 2,812 yards and 24 TD. Explosive RB Marlon Mack left for the NFL, leaving versatile RB D’Ernest Johnson (543 rushing yards, 293 receiving yards, 14 total TD) to ascend into a larger role. Leading receiver WR Rodney Adams is gone, leaving WRs Marquez Valdes-Scantling (415 yards, 5 TD) and Tyree McCants (384 yards, 4 TD) to pick up the slack. TE Mitchell Wilcox impressed a freshman last season, delivering punishing run blocks to set the edge, while averaging 23.2 yards per catch on his 12 receptions. The Bulls defense returns most of its key players from a unit that allowed 31.6 points per game last year (92nd in the nation) and struggled evenly against the pass and the run. New defensive coordinator Brian Jean-Mary, an assistant under head coach Charlie Strong at Louisville and Texas, is the fourth coordinator in as many years for USF. LB Auggie Sanchez (120 total tackles, 6 sacks, 8.5 TFL) is the quarterback of the defense, and CB Deatrick Nichols was the bright spot of the secondary last season. Beefy DLs Deadrin Senat (7 TFL) and Bruce Hector (6 sacks, 8 TFL) are disruptive playmakers up front.

San Jose State has questions to answer under center. QB Josh Love is the favorite to start in Week 1 after struggling mightily last season (5 INT in 60 attempts), with redshirt freshman QB Montel Aaron likely to earn snaps at some point after a strong showing in the Spring Game. RBs Malik Roberson and Zamore Zigler combined for 1,112 yards from scrimmage, seven TD and a 5.2 yards-per-carry average last season as backups. They’ll be relied on heavily in 2017. Top WR Tim Crawley is gone, though WRs Justin Holmes (39 receptions for 613 yards) and Trey Hartley (33 receptions for 572 yards) showed plenty of promise while combining to average 16.5 yards per catch. The Spartans’ offensive line remains largely intact, but it’s a group that has given up 88 sacks over the past two seasons. SJSU allowed 34.7 points per game (103rd in FBS) and 6.5 yards per play (117th) last season. Switching from a 4-3 to a 3-4 system, LB Frank Ginda (99 total tackles, 6.5 sacks, 11.5 TFL) will anchor the new scheme, with DT Bryson Bridges (3 sacks, 5.5 TFL) joining him up the middle. The rest of the front-seven roles are up in the air. The entire starting secondary returns, including First Team All-MWC CB Andre Chachere (4 INT, 14 pass breakups), though teams won’t need to throw against the Spartans until their offense and run defense drastically improve.

#14 Stanford faces Rice
By: StatFox.com

For the second consecutive year, Australia will play host to an opening night game as Pac-12 powerhouse #14 Stanford takes on Rice.

Ten wins isn’t a down year on most campuses, but considering head coach David Shaw’s 64 wins (including two Rose Bowl titles) in six years leading Stanford, more was expected in 2016. Early-season blowout losses to Washington and Washington State knocked Stanford out of championship contention by mid-season. Top-ten NFL draft picks DL Solomon Thomas and RB Christian McCaffrey leave huge shoes to fill, but the Cardinal have the talent and system to improve their win total despite those departures. Offensively, Keller Chryst might be Stanford’s best QB since Andrew Luck, and BR Bryce Love should be able to replace most of McCaffrey’s production behind a stellar O-line. Defensively, eight starters return to a group that performed solidly down the stretch last year. Under head coach David Bailiff, Rice peaked with a ten-win season in 2013, but has been on a steady decline since, winning eight games in 2014, five in 2015 and three last year. There’s room for optimism on offense, but the defense was putrid last season and doesn’t have the manpower to deal with Stanford’s power running game and oversized receivers. The only recent meeting between these teams was last year’s regular-season finale. Stanford failed to cover a 34-point spread in a rainy home game, winning 41-17 on the strength of 373 rushing yards. Under Shaw, Stanford is 16-0 SU & 11-5 ATS as a favorite of 20 points or more. As an underdog in season-openers, Rice is 0-7 SU & 2-5 ATS during Bailiff’s tenure.

The task of replacing superstar RB Christian McCaffrey falls on the shoulders of RB Bryce Love, who’s looked plenty capable with his career 7.2 yards per carry. The offensive line returns four starters to a group that has been one of the nation’s best year in and year out, and the Cardinal will be a run-first team once again. All reports point to QB Keller Chryst being ready to play after tearing an ACL in last year’s bowl game. He produced nine passing TD and two rushing TD with only one INT in his five regular-season starts. Last season’s top two receivers are back—large-bodied WRs Trenton Irwin (37 receptions for 442 yards) and JJ Arcega-Whiteside (24 receptions, 379 yards, 5 TD and two 100-yard games with Chryst starting). The loss of dynamic DL Solomon Thomas creates a void up front for a Stanford defense that held opponents to 20.4 points per game (18th in FBS) last season. DT Harrison Phillips (6.5 sacks, 9.5 TFL) will pick up some of the slack, and LB Joey Alfieri (5 sacks, 10.5 TFL) is also primed for a big season. Despite the loss of playmaking S Dallas Lloyd, the secondary is deep and experienced. CB Alijah Holder was playing at an all-conference level before a shoulder injury cost him nine games. He and Quenton Meeks form arguably the Pac-12’s best CB tandem, while S Justin Reid (4 TFL, 7 pass breakups) is a strong tackler and capable in coverage.

Rice QB Jackson Tyner is the frontrunner in a lingering position battle. He led the Owls to a victory in their penultimate game in his first meaningful action, but went 10-for-37 for 68 yards in the season finale at Stanford. WR Kylen Granson had been slated to redshirt in his first year on campus, but ended up playing seven games and producing 33 catches for 381 yards. He has the potential to be an excellent No. 1 option. RB Samuel Stewart, likely to be the focal point of the offense this season, battled injuries in 2016, tallying 540 total yards and six TD in the five games he played in full. RB Austin Walker scored six times on 80 touches last season, and Rice will use the versatile athlete all over the formation. Injuries kept the offensive line from being intact for half of the Owls’ game last season, and all five starters are back for 2017. Rice’s defense was atrocious last season, allowing 505 yards and 37.3 points per game (114th and 123rd in the nation, respectively). The good news is that starters DT Zach Abercrumbia and CB Justin Bickham are back from injuries after the former missed eight games and the latter missed the entire season. New defensive coordinator Brian Stewart, whose resume includes coordinator jobs with Maryland, Houston and the Dallas Cowboys, is installing a new multiple-fronts scheme. He’ll build around First Team All-Conference LB Emmanuel Ellerbee (118 total tackles, 3.5 sacks, 8 TFL), DE Brian Padgett (2 sacks, 5.5 TFL) and DT Preston Gordon (3.5 sacks, 6.5 TFL). Safeties J.T. Ibe and Destri White had their moments last year, but Rice only forced 11 turnovers while getting bludgeoned in both the pass and run games.

Saturday's College Football Best Bets
Vegasinsider.com

Best Bet #1: Colorado State Rams -4

Colorado State and Oregon State were great for bettors a year ago, as CSU finished with a 9-4 ATS record, while OSU was 8-4 ATS; including 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall. But this year is a new year, and with Oregon State now in Year 3 of Gary Andersen's rebuilding project there, I just don't believe they'll have the talent on the field to match up with a veteran Colorado State squad.

The Rams bring back a total of 14 starters and many of them were significant pieces to their success a year ago. Three of its top four WR's are back in the fold, as are their top two QB's, led by Nick Stevens. Stevens through 19 TD's to just 5 INT's a year ago for Colorado State, and with three of his top weapons back on the outside, a Colorado State offense that scored 42+ points in five of their last six games a year ago should be well on their way to threatening that number in this year's season opener. All four of CSU's top rushers from a year ago are back as well, so a productive, balanced attack is what is likely going to lead Colorado State to success here.

Oregon State has made solid improvements in Andersen's first two years, but naming juco transfer Jake Luton as his starter compared to Marcus McMaryion (started last six games for Oregon State in 2016), might hinder the Beavers growth early on. McMaryion has since transferred to try and get playing time elsewhere, so it's all on Luton's shoulders here, and that might not be a particularly good thing. Oregon State is built this year to move the ball on the ground, and with Colorado State's gameplan that's likely to be heavy on stopping the run, if Luton shows any kind of nerves or struggles in his first Div-1 game, Colorado State could easily run away with this thing.

Best Bet #2: Rice +30.5

The nightcap on Saturday has the Rice Owls as heavy road underdogs against Stanford, in an odd scheduling quirk. See, Rice's final game a year ago was in Stanford too, losing 41-17 to the Cardinal – but covering the +34 point spread – and now they turn around and open up the 2017 season at the same venue. If there ever was a spot where a revenge angle applied between two non-conference foes with one typically being as weak as Rice has over the years, this would be it.

As bad as Rice has been for years, they did manage to go 6-3-1 ATS over their final 10 games a year go, and they get to play a Stanford team that's going through some drastic changes themselves. There is no more Christian McCaffrey doing anything and everything for the Cardinal, and he killed Rice last year. McCaffrey had 204 rushing yards and a TD on 30 carries on the ground, and 23 receiving yards on two catches and a TD through the air in last year's game vs. Rice. There's no question that Stanford has plenty of talented guys to step up and take over McCaffrey's spot, but filling his shoes at Stanford is going to be next to impossible, and it might take the Cardinal a week or two to fully grasp that the McCaffrey era is gone.

With Rice doing enough to hold their own and cover ATS despite McCaffrey's skills a year ago, I don't see how oddsmakers can give them a similar number to cover this year. In a game where controlling the ball through the running game will be the motive for both sides, time will tick away quicker than Stanford backers will want, in trying to cover a big number like this.