Free Picks for Saturday, August 19th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
Indian Cowboy
San Francisco (-2.5) over Denver
The Niners are looking to revitalize the history and pride of the franchise after a depletion of talent and a series of losses last year. With Steve Young and Jerry Rice coming to visit for practice and instilling excitement back into this franchise, and a team that comes off an exciting win at Kansas City, this is a team that will be looking to build on its success. You have to give the Niners credit as they played well in their last game and showed they can indeed put up points with Shanahan leading the way. At the end of the day, the Niners would love nothing more than to send another message here at this time at the expense of John Elway and the Broncos that they are indeed going to be a team on the rise and this game means a lot more to the Niners than it does the Broncos, who are still in complete flux. The Niners featured Barkley, who went 10/17 for 168 yards, and Beathard, who went 7/11 for 101 yards and 2 touchdowns. Combine that with a Broncos team that had a questionable offense for the past few years, and this sets up for a nice spot for the Niners to do well as the Broncos will not be facing the likes of Glennon this week but against a team with more competent quarterback play from start to finish.
Robert Ferringo
Washington (-3.5) over Green Bay
I like the Redskins in this spot on Saturday. They got smoked last week in Baltimore and did not look ready to compete. I think they are going to want to rebound from that blowout loss in their home opener. Green Bay generally only has a passing interest in the preseason. I won't be surprised if Aaron Rodgers sits again this week, and I don't expect the Packers to be into this game on the road here. Green Bay won last week despite getting outgained, thanks to a fluky four turnovers from the Eagles. A punt return for a touchdown helped their cause as well, but it is not as if this team really did much to impress. The public, by a 2-to-1 rate, is jumping on the points with the Packers. But Washington has more to prove in this game. I think they will play harder in the second half and get this win. Don't forget about my 8-Unit MLB Game of the Year on Friday. I have gone 28-14 with my last 42 plays rated 7.0 or higher in all sports and I won my only other 8-Unit MLB Play this season.
Jason Sharpe
Detroit (-5.5) over New York Jets
This looks like a very high point spread for an NFL Preseason game, but it's actually not high enough. The Jets are a bad football team… a very, very bad one. They got a win in their preseason opener last week beating Tennessee in an ugly 7-3 game. That contest showed again just how bad this Jets team is offensively and especially so with their backups. The Detroit Lions have a well-earned reputation around the league as being a losing franchise overall with zero Super Bowl appearances. The Lions organization seems to place an extra emphasis on getting their fan base a reason to get excited in the preseason, and that's evident by their eye popping 16-2 record their last 18 home preseason home contests. Look the Lions to bring it here in this one.
DAVE COKIN
PATRIOTS AT TEXANS
PLAY: OVER 41
I expect the quarterbacks to be the featured attractions on Saturday as New England takes on Houston.
The Patriots QB’s are a know quantity. Brady is Brady. Jimmy G is good enough to start for a significant number of NFL teams. Brissett has to be the best QB3 in the league, doesn’t he?
On the Houston side, Savage is having a very good camp as he looks to hold off rookie sensation Watson.
Don’t get me wrong, I really like the Texans defense and if this game was one that counted in the standings, I’m pretty sure I wouldn’t be expecting a shootout. But this is August football, and I expect the two offenses to have a definite upper hand once the first unit defensive guys for each team become spectators for the majority of the game.
In other words, I see this game as a quarterback showcase and that should mean plenty of points. I’ll therefore tab the Over as the best option between the Patriots and Texans.
Wunderdog
Los Angeles @ Oakland
Pick: Oakland -2.5
Oakland looks to correct many mistakes from its 20-10 to Arizona last week when Derek Carr was a healthy scratch and EJ Manuel played the entire first half and completed 10-of-12 passes for 109 yards. Connor Cook took over in the second half and went 10-for-21 for 82 yards. The Raiders managed 72 rushing yards from six different players and were only outgained 291-252 in total net yards. Jack Del Rio is 24-21 straight-up and 23-20-2 ATS in his preseason career. Los Angeles beat Dallas 13-10 for the Rams' first cover since 2014 in preseason action. Dak Prescott, Dez Bryant and Ezekiel Elliott did not play for the Cowboys and Travis Coons kicked the winning field goal with 6:11 left. Jared Goff completed three-of-four passes for 34 yards in eight snaps and Sean Mannion went 18-for-25 for 144 yards. The Rams were last in the league in points scored and yards gained last season and it doesn't look any more promising after Saturday's performance. New coach Sean McVay, former offensive coordinator for the Redskins, will need time to develop some sort of rhythm with this offense.
DAVE COKIN
MARINERS AT RAYS
PLAY: RAYS -111
The Tampa Bay Rays have fallen upon hard times. The offense, or lack thereof, has been the culprit.
The problem for the Rays is way too many swing and miss power hitters. All well and good when they’re bombing shots into the seats as they were for a good portion of the season. But as is often the case with feat or famine teams, the Rays have a great deal of trouble manufacturing runs.
Bottom line is they’re poorly constructed. This team reminds of the Diamondbacks of a few seasons back. Homers galore, but a ridiculous number of strikeouts. Too many non-productve AB’s. The Rays need to make some off season moves to bring in some contact guys who can play a little small ball. That’s something they can achieve in spite of the financial issues.
Meanwhile, I’m playing the Rays tonight. They’re still in that series sweep revenge angle I’ve utilized virtually all season, and I certainly expect them to get at least one of the two remaining weekend games with Seattle.
I’m not wild about backing Jake Odorizzi. He remains a pitcher who has frequent control issues and is about as uneconomicalas it gets in terms of his pitch counts.
But I do like the idea of going against Ariel Miranda. The Mariners lefty has already eclipsed his career high in innings pitched. That includes the years the seasons where he pitching in his native Cuba. Miranda is starting to show signs of fatigue. The velocity is ticking down a bit, the command has not been sharp lately and I think he’s a decent fade at this juncture.
The downside is this Tampa Bay team is obviously stone cold right now. But this looks like a pretty good shot for them to finally get on the right side of the scoreboard. I’ll spot the short price and will back the Rays tonight. Note this play is already on my Saturday card.
Scott Rickenbach
Toronto vs. Chicago
Play: Toronto +230
Having only appeared in one game for a National League team in his career, Nick Tepesch now faces the Cubs in inter-league action. He has an edge here against Chicago as their lineup has a lack of familiarity with him. Tepesch also got a boost in terms of confidence by allowing just 1 earned run in 6 innings in his most recent start. Of course the Blue Jays are priced as a huge dog here for a reason but the value clearly lies with them in this spot. Jose Quintana gets the start for the Cubs and he is off of another shaky start in his most recent outing as he struggled with fastball command. This is nothing new as prior to that inconsistent outing versus the Reds he allowed 10 runs (9 earned) in the 11 innings spanning his two prior starts. In fact, prior to the ugly win over Cincinnati, the Cubs had lost 3 straight Quintana starts. Since Quintana was a long-time White Sox pitcher before recently moving cross town to the Cubs, the Blue Jays lineup has plenty of familiarity with the southpaw and they'll use that to their advantage here. In 12 day game starts combined with the Sox and Cubs this season Quintana has gone just 3-6 with a 5.45 ERA. He just doesn't warrant this big price range in this spot and I am recommending taking a shot with the big dog in this one. The Jays lost yesterday but have not lost back to back games this month and the Cubs, prior to yesterday's win, were an ugly 6-9 their last 15 games!
Brandon Lee
Seattle at Tampa Bay
Play: Seattle +106
The Mariners stayed hot with a 7-1 win on Friday and have now won 4 straight overall. Nothing new for the Rays, who have now lost 7 of their last 8. A stretch where the offense has scored 3 or fewer runs 6 times. So while Mariners starter Ariel Miranda has an ugly 4.75 ERA in 24 starts, he's capable of shutting down this offense right now. In fact, Miranda already did that once this season, giving up just 1 run in 4 hit complete game.
Brad Diamond
Nationals vs. Padres
Play: Nationals -185
Last night the Nationals won 7-1 on the coast after Scherzer was put on the DL. Young RHP Grace started and threw 4-1/3 allowing just 2 hits and no earned runs. Here Washington brings back another stud hurler with Strasburg showing off 4 weeks of retooling with an elbow injury. On the road this season, the hurler is 7-1 with a 2.37 ERA. Behind the hurler, the Nats have won 6 straight against the Padres. Overall Washington is 45-12 in Strasburg starts and 5-0 vs. LHP. San Diego picked up just 4 hits last night in the loss and now use lefty Wood (2-4, 6.46). The Padres come in 0-4 vs. a hurler with less than a 1.15 WHIP and 0-4 against a club with a .600 or higher win percentage.
Stephen Nover
Yankees vs. Red Sox
Play: Red Sox -1½
I want to get behind Chris Sale and a hot Red Sox squad that has won 14 of their last 17 games. Laying 1 1/2 runs on the run line is the way to do it without laying monster juice.
Sale is the likely AL Cy Young Award winner. The southpaw has held five of his last six opponents to one or no runs. He has a 1.19 ERA in three starts versus the Yankees this season. Believe it or not, Sale's career ERA against the Yankees is even lower. It's 1.18 in 13 appearances, including 10 starts.
The Yankees don't hit lefties nearly as well as righies.
During Sale's past 16 victories, 15 of them have been by more than one run.
CC Sabathia didn't look good before going on the DL with knee trouble giving up 12 runs in his last 13 1/3 innings. I'm not expecting much from Sabathia in his first start since going on the DL following an Aug. 8 start.
Marc Lawrence
Dodgers vs. Tigers
Play:Dodgers -142
Edges - Dodgers: 16-3 on Saturdays this season; and Ryu 6-1 with 2.50 ERA last seven overall team starts this season… Tigers: Fulmer 7.91 ERA last four starts; and 0-3 last three team starts during August… With Ryu in commanding KW form with 20 Ks and 3 BBs his last three starts, we recommend a 1* play on the Dodgers.
Jimmy Boyd
Philadelphia at San Francisco
Play: San Francisco - 125
I really like the value here with San Francisco as a short home favorite against the Phillies. Anytime you can fade Philadelphia on the road at this price, it's hard to pass up. Going into Friday's contest at SF the Phillies are a miserable 19-45 on the road (currently trail 6-0 in the 3rd). So while the Giants aren't a top notch team, they have a bigger edge here than the line would indicate. They also have been playing better of late, as they own a 9-7 record in August going into Friday.
More than anything I like the pitching matchup here in favor of San Francisco. The Phillies are sending out Jerad Eickhoff, who is a big reason for their awful road record. Eickhoff has a 4.59 ERA and 1.407 WHIP in 11 road starts, which Philadelphia has gone a miserable 1-10 in. Giants counter with Ty Blach, who despite a 4.35 ERA has pitched well more often than he's been bad, especially of late. In his last 8 starts, he's allowed 2 or fewer runs in 6 of those outings. He had a clunker last time out at Miami, but has done a great job of bouncing back from a poor showing.
Jesse Schule
Arizona at Minnesota
Play: Arizona -141
Arizona lost Game 1 of this series in Minnesota by a score of 10-3, but the D'Backs are favored to bounce back in Game 2.
Zack Greinke will toe the slab for Arizona, and he's having a phenomenal season. The veteran is 14-5 with a 3.01 ERA, and he's been the epitome of consistency. He's 3-1 with a 3.43 ERA in his last six starts.
The Twins will hand the ball to Jose Berrios, who started off hot but has faded in the second half. The 23 year old was rocked for six runs on six hits and a pair of walks over just 3 1/3 innings in a loss at Detroit his last time out. He's 2-3 with a 6.18 ERA in six starts since the All Star break.
Paul Goldschmidt is a favorite to win the NL MVP, and he comes in batting .339 with seven home runs in the month of August.
Ben Burns
Dodgers vs. Tigers
Play: Over 10
Fulmer's return from the disabled list didn't go too well. He walked three batters in the first inning alone and finished with five runs allowed in five innings. Ryu, who tossed a career high (108) in pitches in his last start, can't be too happy to see the Tigers. His lone start against them came on 7/8. He lasted just 2 1/3 innings and gave up seven earned runs, a career high, on 10 hits. We could see some more fireworks on Saturday afternoon.