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Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Sunday, August 20th, 2017

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Free Picks for Sunday, August 20th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers

 
Posted : August 16, 2017 9:53 am
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Alex Smart

Saints vs. Chargers
Play: Chargers -2½

New Orleans is 0-10 ATS L/10 preseason games, as the teams coaching staff just go through the motions as they treat each exhibition game like a scrimmage opportunity. The loss last week (20-14) to lowly Cleveland solidified their objectives as being disinterested to an extent. Meanwhile, the Chargers were clobbered by a 48-17 count in a loss to Seattle and after that embarrassing effort will need some redemption here, so that some semblance of competitiveness can take hold in the dressing room and field. I know its just preseason, but I expect for a red faced Chargers team to come out here with a proverbial slight chip on their shoulders and get us the cover.

 
Posted : August 16, 2017 9:53 am
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Doc's Sports

Falcons vs. Steelers
Play: Falcons +1½

The Steelers were a big underdog last week and beat the Giants straight-up. Now we see an overreaction for the line in this game Sunday afternoon. Atlanta dominated much of their week 1 game against Miami before a late rally by the Dolphins scoring the last 13 points to win by three points. Atlanta had three quarterbacks in that game complete 100% of their passes and they will win this game straight-up.

 
Posted : August 16, 2017 9:54 am
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DAVE COKIN

SAINTS AT CHARGERS
PLAY: CHARGERS -3

The final score of the opening week preseason battle between Seattle and the Chargers indicates a blowout. That’s pretty accurate, actually. But the first team LA offense was sharp early. The problems came when the shock troops took the field as they were absolutely horrible. Thus the lopsided result.

I’m frequently a fan of backing teams in Week Two of the exhibition campaign when they throw in a real clunker in the debut performance. That’s going to be the case for me here.

The quotes emanating from Chargers camp indicate the players and coaches want to make a much more positive impression this weekend. As for the Saints, they’re riding a very lengthy preseason losing streak, and I really don’t think Sean Payton cares much about it.

Note that it sure sounds like the Saints are looking at keeping just two QB’s on the active roster. Drew Brees and Chase Daniel are locked into those two spots. Payton has indicated that the Saints will only keep a QB3 if either Garrett Grayson or Ryan Nassib earns that roster spot. I don’t think Nassib has a chance at all. Grayson, on the other hand, is having a terrific camp, and I look for him to get plenty of snaps in this game. He’s very possibly my biggest worry come Sunday night.

The main deal here is that I expect a much more focused performance from the San Diego….oops, make that Los Angeles…backups this weekend. The team needs to sell itself to the locals, who stayed away in droves last weekend. That’s a take situation for me and I will back the Chargers on Sunday.

 
Posted : August 18, 2017 9:56 am
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Brandon Lee

Nationals vs. Padres
Play: Under 7½

Small total here but I still like the UNDER in Sunday's showdown between the Nationals and Padres. Both of these offenses come into the weekend struggling at the plate. Washington clearly misses Bryce Harper in the middle of the lineup and the Padres just don't have a ton of talent. More than anything, I like the pitching matchup. Nationals send out Gio Gonzalez, who has put up Cy Young type numbers with a 2.49 ERA and 1.120 WHIP in 24 starts. That includes an amazing 0.43 ERA and 0.762 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Padres will send out Dinelson Lamet, who is a strong talent that is throwing the ball exceptionally well right now with a 2.04 ERA and 0.792 WHIP in his last 3 starts.

 
Posted : August 20, 2017 8:44 am
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Cappers Club

Phillies vs. Giants
Play: Over 7½

The San Francisco Giants and the Philadelphia Phillies face off on Sunday afternoon, and with such a low total, the over has good value.

On the mound for the Giants is Madison Bumgarner, but this isn't the same pitcher from before his dirt bike injury.

In his last start against the Marlins he went six innings and really struggled giving up nine hits and four earned runs.

I think the Phillies will at least be able to score a couple runs off of him, to get closer to the over.

On the mound for the Phillies is Ben Lively who is good to give up a couple runs at least in every game.

The Giants have done better scoring runs as of late, and I think they will get to him early and often in this one.

Some trends to note. Over is 5-1-1 in Giants last 7 home games. Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in San Francisco. Over is 4-1 in Bumgarners last 5 starts vs. Phillies.

 
Posted : August 20, 2017 8:45 am
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Vic Duke

Saints vs. Chargers
Play: Over 42½

Chargers' offense can score as they have a plethora of weaponry and add rookie Mike Williams to the mix. Still not a fan of the Saint's defense, even with additions through the draft. It will take time to solidify the worst pass defense in the NFL. On the other hand, the Saints are deep at RB with the addition of Peterson and should jump on a Chargers' defense that allowed a ridiculous 458 yards to Seattle last week. We'll look for a higher scoring game.

 
Posted : August 20, 2017 8:45 am
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Marc Lawrence

Nationals vs. Padres
Play: Nationals -106

Edges - Nationals: Gonzalez 5-1 with 1.50 ERA and 0.88 WHIP last six overall team starts; and 4-0 vs NL West this season, and 4-0 last four overall team starts during August… Padres: 6-12 on Sundays this season… With the Nats standing 12-7 on Sundays this campaign, we recommend a 1* play on Washington.

 
Posted : August 20, 2017 8:46 am
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Jimmy Boyd

Yankees vs. Red Sox
Play: Yankees -106

I like the value here with New York, as they come in riding a huge wave of momentum after defeating Boston 4-3 on Saturday with the Red Sox having their ace Chris Sale on the mound. Now it's the Yankees that have the huge edge on the mound with Sonny Gray going up against Doug Fister.

Gray got his first win as a member of the Yankees last time out against cross-town rival Mets, allowing just 2 runs on 5 hits in 6 innings. That's now 9 straight starts dating back to June 25th in which Gray has completed at least 6 inning and allowed 2 earned runs or fewer. Fister just gave up 5 runs on 7 hits and 4 walks in his last start at home against the Indians and now owns a 6.27 ERA on the season with a ugly 6.48 ERA and 1.741 WHIP in 3 day starts.

 
Posted : August 20, 2017 8:46 am
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Jack Jones

Mariners vs. Rays
Play: Rays -135

The Tampa Bay Rays need to get it together now if they want to remain in the wild card race. Despite going just 1-8 in their last nine games overall, they are still only 4 games back in the wild card. Sunday is a great opportunity for them to get back in the win column.

They have the clear edge on the mound over the Mariners behind Blake Snell. The left-hander is 1-0 with a 4.41 ERA and 1.347 WHIP in his last three starts. Snell held the Mariners to just one earned run in his only career start against them last season.

Yovani Gallardo is the weakest link in Seattle's rotation. He is 4-8 with a 6.41 ERA and 1.585 WHIP in 19 starts this season, including 0-1 with a 9.45 ERA and 1.800 WHIP in his last three. Gallardo gave up 6 earned runs in 3 1/3 innings in his last start against Tampa Bay, and he has a 4.71 ERA and 1.597 WHIP in seven career starts against the Rays.

The Mariners are 3-7 in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Rays are 4-0 in Snell's last four home starts vs. a team with a winning record. The home team is 10-3 in Dana DeMuth's last 13 starts behind home plate.

 
Posted : August 20, 2017 8:47 am
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Ricky Tran

Dodgers vs. Tigers
Play: Under 9½

Maeda is 5-0 L6 and surrendered one or no earned runs in five of those turns. In his last 5 games over a 27 inning span, he has a 1.98 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP while striking out 27 batters. Maeda is seeing Detroit for the first time in his career and is 4-2 with a 3.25 ERA in seven interleague starts.

Verlander recently had a string of seven straight starts yielding three or fewer earned runs. Over his last 3 outings he owns 24 strikeouts in 21 innings. Verlander is 29-5 with a 2.94 ERA in 41 career interleague starts, including a win in his lone previous appearance against Los Angeles.

Under is 8-2 in Dodgers last 10 road games vs. a right-handed starter.

Under is 17-8-2 in Verlander's last 27 home starts.

 
Posted : August 20, 2017 8:47 am
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Big Al

Chicago vs. Texas
Pick: Texas -185

It's been a frustrating couple of seasons for Rangers RHP A.J. Griffin. Signed as a free agent in the winter of 2015, Griffin went on the DL shortly into the 2016 season and seemingly never fully recovered as he struggled to a 5.07 ERA in just 23 starts. This season, Griffin won't even reach that number of mound trips as he has already had two DL stints -- one for a case of gout in his ankle and the other for a strained intercostal muscle. But Griffin finally appears to be healthy and despite the exact same ERA so far that he had in 2016, Griffin has looked much better lately. In his three starts since coming off that latest DL stay, Griffin is 2-1 with a 3.38 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in 16 innings. Chicago's Miguel Gonzalez is quietly having a nice run since the All Star break, but the problem is he has no offense to back him up. The White Sox rank 14th in runs scored for the month of August with just 67 in 16 games. The Rangers are 22-7 in Griffin's last 29 starts on grass.

 
Posted : August 20, 2017 8:49 am
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Zack Cimini

Cleveland vs. Kansas City
Pick: Kansas City +137

The Royals are fading fast as their bats have gone cold and pitching continues to struggle. That has opened the betting line steep for Sunday as Danny Salazar is coming off a gem outing. Meanwhile Jason Hammel has had issues all season long and was lit up in his last start. This is a spot where Kansas City’s cold bats need and will get things back in order.

 
Posted : August 20, 2017 8:50 am
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Jim Feist

Phillies at Giants
Pick: Under

This is a good park to pitch in and a bad Philadelphia offense is in town, a long way from home. Philadelphia is 8-2-1 under the total against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. San Francisco is no offensive powerhouse, either, 13-6-1 under the total during game 4 of a series. They also have ace Madison Bumgarner on the mound with the under 3-1-1 when he starts at home.

 
Posted : August 20, 2017 8:51 am
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Scott Rickenbach

Tampa Bay at Seattle
Play: Seattle +128

While I am certainly not a huge fan of Yovani Gallardo, the right-hander did allow just 1 earned run in 5 innings the last time he pitched at Tampa Bay. Also, he does come up with some occasional solid starts. Though he got rocked by Baltimore in his most recent start, Gallardo went into that outing having allowed 3 earned runs or less in 4 straight starts. The big key here is that he is facing a Tampa Bay team that has just been simply awful at the plate for weeks now. The Rays have lost 10 of their last 12 games and have averaged only 2 runs per game in their last 15 games. That's right, even with yesterday's 6-run outburst at the plate, TB has still totaled only 30 runs in their last 15 games. As for the Mariners, they've scored 7 runs in each of their last 3 games and should stay hot here against Blake Snell. When the Rays southpaw faced him last season (his only start versus the M's in his career) Snell got rocked for 8 hits plus he walked 3 in an outing that lasted only 3 and 1/3 innings. The Mariners have won 4 straight games and also are currently on a 15-6 run in games against teams with a losing record. The Rays are 6-11 in home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs the past 3 seasons combined. Road dog value here in going against struggling Tampa Bay.

 
Posted : August 20, 2017 9:27 am
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