AFC Conference Previews

AFC North Outlook
By Joe Nelson
VegasInsider.com

BALTIMORE RAVENS

Over/Under Win Total: 8.5 (EVEN OVER, -130 UNDER)
Odds to win the AFC North: 11/4
Odds to win the AFC: 14/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 33/1

STAFF CHANGES: Former Vikings head coach Leslie Frazier is now the defensive backs coach with Matt Weiss moving over to linebackers coach after Ted Monachino was hired as the new Indianapolis defensive coordinator. Joe Cullen is now the defensive line coach, but Frazier is a big hire for John Harbaugh’s staff as he has a lot of credibility in the league and could easily be in line for a defensive coordinator position in the near future.

KEY POSITON BATTLE: Running Back: Six players are in camp for likely four spots as Justin Forsett’s lead role could be challenged. Lorenzo Taliaferro filled in admirably last season and he will get an opportunity. Veterans with experience including Trent Richardson and Terrance West will be looking to earn a backup spot while rookie Kenneth Dixon had a great career at Louisiana Tech and will be in the mix after being a fourth round draft pick.

OTHER POSITIONS TO WATCH: Tight end features four pretty big names with Benjamin Watson, Dennis Pitta, Crockett Gillmore and Maxx Williams on board. All four could make the team with the Ravens often utilizing the tight end in the offense but that would mean trimming the roster in other spots. The left side of the offensive line has some question marks with Eugene Monroe retiring, while cornerback also is likely to feature a spirited battle for the defense.

SEASON OUTLOOK: Baltimore won the Super Bowl after the 2012 season and has finished third in the AFC North each of the three seasons since, although they did make the playoffs in 2014. Last season’s 5-11 campaign was the worst since Brian Billick’s final season with the team and while a lot of signs point upward for the Ravens, they sit in a division with two serious AFC contenders and moving up will be a challenge. Baltimore’s schedule is favorable early in the season as this is a team that needs to take advantage with a strong start. Several key games between fellow AFC wild card candidates are in the first two months and those games could make or break the season for the Ravens.

CINCINNATI BENGALS

Over/Under Win Total: 9.5 (-135 OVER, +105 UNDER)
Odds to win the AFC North: 7/4
Odds to win the AFC: 8/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 18/1

STAFF CHANGES: There was some speculation that Marvin Lewis could be let go after another playoff failure last season. That didn’t happen but offensive coordinator Hue Jackson headed across the state to Cleveland. Former quarterbacks coach Ken Zampese will be the team’s third offensive coordinator in three years. Cincinnati also lost three defensive coaches to other teams and Kevin Coyle has returned to the team to fill the defensive backs position under defensive coordinator Paul Guenther.

KEY POSITON BATTLE: Defensive Tackle: It is a good problem to have but Cincinnati has great depth on the defensive line and there should be a good battle to earn spots on the roster. Geno Atkins and Domata Peko are the presumed starters, but DeShawn Williams and Pat Sims will make a push with Sims being a factor last season though his age and contract might make him expendable. Brandon Thompson might not be able to play right away coming off an ACL injury from late last season as he may be left inactive early in the season. Andrew Billings was also a fourth round pick that many graded much higher, but concerns over a possible knee issue pushed the Baylor product back to the mid-rounds.

OTHER POSITIONS TO WATCH: At cornerback, William Jackson III is a candidate to push for a starting spot as Cincinnati’s first round draft pick. Leon Hall left the team so there may be an opportunity, but he will be in competition with 2014 first round pick Darqueze Dennard and Dre Kirkpatrick and Adam Jones are still on the roster. With the departure of Marvin Jones and Mahomed Sanu, there are openings at wide receiver. Brandon LaFell was signed and Tyler Boyd, a second round draft pick out of Pittsburgh, will get an opportunity to earn playing time as well. Brandon Tate seems likely to maintain a spot in the offense with his experience in the offense and capability to contribute on special teams as well.

SEASON OUTLOOK: The Bengals never seem to be the AFC North favorites, but they have won three of the last seven division titles while making the playoffs six of the last seven seasons. Cincinnati has been 10-6 or better in each of the last four seasons and if Andy Dalton returns to form, this is a team that should be considered a serious threat in the AFC, especially with the North teams appearing to have favorable schedules as a whole this season. The early season schedule is difficult, playing on the road vs. playoff contenders in four of the first six weeks plus hosting the Super Bowl champions as the pressure will on early this year coming off last season’s miserable ending with another devastating playoff loss.

CLEVELAND BROWNS

Over/Under Win Total: 4.5 (-115 OVER, -115 UNDER)
Odds to win the AFC North: 20/1
Odds to win the AFC: 50/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 100/1

STAFF CHANGES: Former Raiders head coach and 2015 Cincinnati defensive coordinator Hue Jackson will be Cleveland’s ninth head coach since the team was reactivated in 1999. Only Romeo Crennel lasted as long as four seasons and none have produced a winning record, although Butch Davis did lead the Browns to the playoffs with a 9-7 season in 2002. Former Colts offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton will be an associate head coach and will lead the quarterbacks as Jackson intends to lead the offense himself. Ray Horton was the defensive coordinator for the Browns in 2013 and he served in that role for the Titans the past two seasons. He is back in Cleveland to lead the defense for Jackson’s staff this season while Chris Tabor is a holdover running special teams.

KEY POSITON BATTLE: Quarterback: The Browns resisted drafting a quarterback in April and instead signed Robert Griffin III, who starred for the Redskins in his rookie season of 2012 only to fall out of favor with the organization. Josh McCown will be a veteran option if that plan fails with Austin Davis, who is also from the 2012 draft class, in the mix as well. Davis played in a handful of games for the Rams in 2014 and also filled in with mixed results last season before the Browns turned to Johnny Manziel.

OTHER POSITIONS TO WATCH: Linebacker appears to be an area with little stability for the Cleveland defense. Rookies Joe Schobert and Scooby Wright could compete for time with free agent Demario Davis as well as the other returning players on the roster. Eyes will also be on first round draft pick Corey Coleman and the wide receiver position with Andrew Hawkins and Terrelle Pryor also returning while the team still will be waiting on any chance that Jose Gordon could return.

SEASON OUTLOOK: After a modestly successful 7-9 season in 2014, the Browns fell back to 3-13 last year and in seven of the last eight years Cleveland has failed to top five wins. They are firmly expected to struggle in the AFC North this season and likely finish back among the worst teams in the league. Cleveland does have some promising matchups in the first two months of the season as it wouldn’t be impossible for the Browns to have a competitive start if Hue Jackson can find the right mix on offense as the defense should be capable. The late-season schedule looks difficult as a slow start could spell a very challenging season as the best opportunities for wins should be early in the season.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Over/Under Win Total: 10.5 (-125 OVER, -105 UNDER)
Odds to win the AFC North: 13/10
Odds to win the AFC: 11/2
Odds to win Super Bowl: 12/1

STAFF CHANGES: Keith Butler took over for Dick LeBeau last season as the defensive coordinator for the Steelers and the results were promising with a high sack and high turnover unit that was very good against the run. The staff under Mike Tomlin remains mostly intact from last season with Todd Haley leading the offense. Tomlin is actually the fifth longest tenured head coach in the league with the same team and the stability for the organization makes the team one of the AFC favorites again this season.

KEY POSITON BATTLE: Safety: The secondary went through some ups-and-downs last season for the Steelers and it will be a position of interest in preseason action. Will Allen started 13 games last season for the Steelers, but he was not re-signed. Robert Golden started three games early in the year at strong safety, but played less late in the season although he was re-signed to a three-year deal. Shamarko Thomas has been mostly a bust for the Steelers and may be in his last opportunity to earn meaningful time on the field. Sean Davis was a second round pick in the draft and the opportunity to take the spot is there.

OTHER POSITIONS TO WATCH: Kicker has been an interesting position for the Steelers in recent years as Josh Scobee was dismissed midseason last year. Chris Boswell did the job the rest of the season including hitting some big kicks in the playoffs, but long-time Steelers kicker Shaun Suisham is back after missing last season due to an ACL injury. It seems likely Boswell keeps the job but Suisham will get an opportunity. Alejandro Villanueva and Ryan Harris could be in a heated battle at left tackle as the position was a weak spot for the team last season. Landry Jones and Bruce Gradkowski will also provide the Steelers with a battle for the back-up spot behind Ben Roethlisberger, who missed some time last season and seems to constantly make his way to the injury report.

SEASON OUTLOOK: As one of the most popular teams in the league and one of the most stable organizations, the Steelers have almost always been considered one of the AFC favorites in recent years and that won’t change this season. Pittsburgh was very close to making the AFC Championship last season and the defense showed promising signs last season to go along with a very productive offense that should battle fewer injuries than last season. Optimism for Pittsburgh is also built on a schedule draw that many rate among the most favorable slates in the league.

AFC South Outlook
By Joe Nelson
VegasInsider.com

HOUSTON TEXANS

Over/Under Win Total: 8.5 (-130 OVER, EVEN UNDER)
Odds to win the AFC South: 2/1
Odds to win the AFC: 18/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 33/1

STAFF CHANGES: Despite winning the AFC South last season, the Texans made a few coaching moves, firing Bob Ligashesky as special teams coordinator, a holdover from Gary Kubiak’s staff. Wide receivers coach Stan Hixton followed Bill O’Brien from Penn State, but was released after last season. Mike Vrabel was allegedly offered the defensive coordinator position in San Francisco, but he opted to stay put as linebackers coach while Sean Ryan and Anthony Weaver are new position coach hires. Larry Izzo is the new special teams coordinator, having spent the last five seasons with the Giants.

KEY POSITON BATTLE: Running Back: Arian Foster is no longer with the Texans as the incredibly productive but often-injured running back has moved on and signed with Miami. Ironically, Houston is replacing Foster with Lamar Miller, who was the main running back for the Dolphins last season. Alfred Blue had several strong fill-in performances last season, but he may wind up being a career back-up. Seeking more of a change-of-pace back, the Texans will hope to see improvement from Jonathan Grimes who had 282 yards last season but isn’t a lock to make the roster. A more dynamic option might be rookie Tyler Ervin, who was a fourth round pick out of San Jose State, while Akeem Hunt will also see some preseason snaps after bouncing between three teams as an undrafted rookie out of Purdue last season.

OTHER POSITIONS TO WATCH: There should be a true competition in the kicking game for the Texans as while Nick Novak was adequate last season, rookie Ka’imi Fairbairn was a prolific college kicker for UCLA and figures to have greater range. If J.J. Watt misses time, defensive end will be a position with questions as Jared Crick signed with Denver and there is an open starting spot opposite Watt. Christian Covington may be moved from the interior while Jeoffrey Pagan remains on the roster. Devon Still and Brandon Dunn are also new additions that will compete for a rotation spot.

SEASON OUTLOOK: Winning the AFC South was a great accomplishment for the Texans last season in Bill O’Brien’s second season, but a 30-0 home loss in the playoffs was a sour finish to the season. The success of Houston will hinge on new quarterback Brock Osweiler, the latest attempt to solidify the position that the franchise has struggled to find stability at in its entire existence. Houston was just 9-7 last season and in the AFC South, that might again be enough for a division title with a grouping that figures to be a bit more balanced with improvement from Tennessee and Jacksonville very possible. The draws of the NFC North and AFC West will make for a tough overall schedule for Houston and as has been the case in recent years the matchups with the Colts may decide the division.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Over/Under Win Total: 9.5 (EVEN OVER, -130 UNDER)
Odds to win the AFC South: 7/5
Odds to win the AFC: 12/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 28/1

STAFF CHANGES: There was some speculation that Chuck Pagano could be fired after the Colts opened the season as the AFC favorites last year and finished just 8-8. Big changes were made on defense as Greg Manusky was fired as defensive coordinator along with several position coaches. Recall that in the middle of the season offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton was fired, as under Pagano the 2016 season will start with almost a completely new set of assistants. Former Ravens assistant Ted Monachino is the new defensive coordinator and will run Pagano’s scheme. Higher profile assistants are joining the team on offense with former Dolphins head coach Joe Philbin coaching the offensive line and Brian Schottenheimer coaching the quarterbacks while former Browns head coach Rob Chudzinski the new offensive coordinator.

KEY POSITON BATTLE: Right Guard: Hugh Thornton started at right guard last season and injuries have plagued him heading into his fourth season with the team. Thornton will have an opportunity to retain the starting spot and likely get a hefty contract after the season or he could fall out of favor. Denzelle Good played at tackle last season, but was impressive in his rookie season and the team sees him as a potential replacement at guard, though an injury has kept him out of action in the early summer. Jonotthan Harrison has been the team’s center in recent years, but Ryan Kelly is taking that spot leaving Harrison as a potential replacement at guard. Joe Haeg was a fifth round pick as a tackle but has mostly been working as a guard since joining the Colts.

OTHER POSITIONS TO WATCH: Jerrell Freeman signed with the Bears to leave an opening at inside linebacker. Nate Irving was next in line on the roster last season, starting two games while starting significantly for the Broncos in 2014. Sio Moore was acquired just before the start of last season, but he did not earn consistent playing time and figures to be in a clear competition for the spot. Antonio Morrison was picked up in the fourth round of the draft, but an injury has kept him from realistically joining the competition at this point. The defensive line and receiver depth will also have some sorting out to do for the Colts, who will have five preseason games as they are in the early August Hall of Fame game to open the season.

SEASON OUTLOOK: While the Colts were just 8-8 last season, the expectations will be in line with the previous three 11-5 seasons under Andrew Luck and Pagano. Owner Jim Irsay is known for the potential for bold decisions and if the season does not start out strong, changes could be made. Indianapolis has a favorable early slate with many of the toughest games in the second half as that scenario doesn’t seem likely, but Luck has to prove he is healthy and ready to take a leap after the step backwards last season while being injured. The South remains one of the weaker divisions in the league as it won’t likely take a great season to win the division, but after an AFC Championship appearance two seasons ago the bar is set high for a team that had a lot of problems last season and turned over most of the staff.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Over/Under Win Total: 7.5 (-125 OVER, -105 UNDER)
Odds to win the AFC South: 3/1
Odds to win the AFC: 22/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 40/1

STAFF CHANGES: Gus Bradley is just 12-36 in three seasons leading the Jaguars, but ownership has been patient although this figures to be a critical season for the team to show improvement even with Bradley getting an extension through 2017. Jacksonville did make a major change on defense with Todd Wash replacing Bob Babich as the defensive coordinator. Wash has been with the team all three seasons under Bradley as the defensive line coach as it won’t likely be a major transition. There were some other minor moves for in assistant roles for position coaches, but much of the staff from last season is in place.

KEY POSITON BATTLE: Left Tackle: The key position on the offensive line will be under the microscope for the Jaguars in August. Luke Joeckel was the #2 pick in the 2013 draft, but he missed most of that season with an ankle injury. His 2014 season was forgettable and while he made 14 starts at left tackle last season, his starting spot may be in jeopardy. Kelvin Beachum is the best candidate to unseat as a free agent signing from the Steelers, working his way from being a seventh round pick out of SMU into 39 starts the past three years. Veteran Mackenzy Bernadeau was also picked up by the Jaguars with eight years of experience and versatility at the line positions.

OTHER POSITIONS TO WATCH: T.J. Yeldon had a solid rookie season and figures to be coveted fantasy running back this summer, but veteran Chris Ivory might still wind up as the starter based on his experience and red zone success. Both will play significantly but Yeldon may not get the touches many will expect in his second season. The Jacksonville offense also features a pair of college wide receiver stars in play for the slot position with Marqise Lee and Rashad Greene in a head-to-head battle. Lee has been hurt for portions of his first two seasons and while Greene made a few dynamic plays in his rookie season he ultimately had just 19 receptions plus a punt return touchdown. The defensive line rotation and the strong safety positions also have some question marks at this point for the Jaguars.

SEASON OUTLOOK: On paper, Jacksonville is starting to look like a team that can seriously compete in the AFC South despite a long stretch of losing for the franchise. Blake Bortles will be in his third season as the starting quarterback and there is a lot of young talent on both sides of the ball. Expectations are definitely elevated and while Jacksonville likely doesn’t need a playoff run for 2016 to be considered a success, getting close to .500 is reasonable goal and the opportunity should be there for this squad.

TENNESSEE TITANS

Over/Under Win Total: 5.5 (-155 OVER, +125 UNDER)
Odds to win the AFC South: 10/1
Odds to win the AFC: 40/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 66/1

STAFF CHANGES: Ken Whisenhunt was fired mid-season and his replacement Mike Mularkey had the interim tag removed as he will lead the Titans in 2016, his third stint as a head coach as he coached the Bills for two seasons in 2004 and 2005 as well as the Jaguars in 2012. His career record is just 18-39 and he promoted long-time Steelers defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau to that position moving forward as well as retaining his distinction as assistant head coach. Terry Robiskie was twice an interim head coach before settling in as a wide receivers coach the last decade, mainly with the Falcons. Robiskie will be the offensive coordinator for the Titans this season while there is a change at special teams as well with Bobby April taking over having held that role for the Rams, Bills, Eagles, Raiders, and Jets the last 15 years.

KEY POSITON BATTLE: Running Back: DeMarco Murray is presumably the starter after the Titans struck a deal to acquire the 2014 season’s leading rusher. Alabama star Derrick Henry was also the team’s second round pick and the Heisman Trophy winner will certainly be watched closely. Bishop Sankey was the team’s second round pick in 2014 and while he has underwhelmed with just 762 yards in two seasons, he still has some potential and is likely more comfortable in the passing game. David Cobb was also a prolific college rusher for Minnesota and while he was injured much of his rookie season, he did have some positive production late in the season when given an opportunity. Taking pressure of Marcus Mariota will be critical for Tennessee as the team will need to get strong running back play to have success.

OTHER POSITIONS TO WATCH: The Titans have several veterans with experience at wide receiver, but the pecking order isn’t particularly clear. Harry Douglas, Kendall Wright, and Justin Hunter figure to be the top three receivers but Dorial Green-Beckham had a productive rookie season and Rishard Matthews had 43 catches for the Dolphins last season. It is a deep group but perhaps lacking a standout leader. Brian Orakpo leads the linebacker corps but rookie Kevin Dodd joins Davis Bass and Derrick Morgan on the depth chart in what will be a key spot for the defense.

SEASON OUTLOOK: The Titans are projected to finish at the bottom of the AFC after finishing just 3-13 last season, but the offense had a handful of big games last season and improvement on the defense seems likely. The AFC South would be one the most likely divisions to produce an unexpected winner and the Titans lost six games by a touchdown or less last season despite all the changes and injuries. Tennessee is probably a year or two away from a serious push for the division, but the Titans are also a candidate to surprise especially with a pretty favorable first half schedule.

AFC West Outlook
By Joe Nelson
VegasInsider.com

DENVER BRONCOS

Over/Under Win Total: 9 (-125 OVER, -105 UNDER)
Odds to win the AFC West: 2/1
Odds to win the AFC: 8/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 18/1

STAFF CHANGES: After a Super Bowl championship season, the Denver Broncos don’t have any major staff changes to report as Gary Kubiak’s staff will be led by Rick Dennison as the offensive coordinator for the second straight season and his 26th (non-consecutive) season with the team. Veteran coach Wade Phillips is back to lead the defense as well as a coaching staff that won it all in year one will try to do it again.

KEY POSITON BATTLE: Quarterback: The Broncos didn’t need spectacular quarterback play last season, but they will be a rare example of a Super Bowl champion not returning with their quarterback, the first since Trent Dilfer wasn’t re-signed by the Ravens for the 2001 season. It is assumed that Mark Sanchez will be leading the Broncos, but Trevor Siemian could be a wild card and the Broncos also drafted Paxton Lynch late in the first round. Siemian impressed the team last season as a seventh round pick and his arm strength and athleticism could keep him in the mix if Sanchez fails to take a firm hold of the spot.

OTHER POSITIONS TO WATCH: The success of the defense last season led to some departures and while the starting secondary looks locked in, there will be some battles for depth, particularly at cornerback with a casualty likely among Keyvon Webster, Tarurean Nixon, and Lorenzo Doss. Keeping Von Miller grabbed the headlines this summer for the Broncos, but the team lost Danny Trevathan to the Bears to open up a linebacker spot. Nose tackle also should feature a battle between Sylvester Williams and Darius Kilgo who both contributed last season.

SEASON OUTLOOK: Denver has some risk to be a Super Bowl champion that fails to make the playoffs the next season. Denver was the AFC’s top seed, but they weren’t far from missing the playoffs entirely heading into the final weeks last season. Five AFC teams had a superior point differential to the Broncos last season and while Peyton Manning didn’t have a great statistical season, his leadership proved pivotal in the many narrow wins the team had. Add that the competition in the West looks steep with the Raiders and Chargers likely to improve and the Chiefs still formidable, a fall for the Broncos looks possible if the defense is unable to carry the team again.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Over/Under Win Total: 9.5 (-115 OVER, -115 UNDER)
Odds to win the AFC West: 2/1
Odds to win the AFC: 12/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 28/1

STAFF CHANGES: The Chiefs made 10 coaching changes this off-season although few were headline-grabbing moves. Primary among those moves for Andy Reid’s staff was Britt Reid promoted to defensive line coach and Al Harris taking over coaching the secondary. A handful of college coaches have also been added to the staff including two former UCLA assistants.

KEY POSITON BATTLE: Cornerback: The Chiefs would not pay Sean Smith a big contract and he left for division rival Oakland to open up a starting cornerback spot. It will be a young group led by Marcus Peters who had a great rookie season, but the replacement options for Smith include less proven options like Phillip Gaines and Steven Nelson. Marcus Cooper is also an option with some experience and the Chiefs addressed the position heavily in the draft picking three corners, led by KeiVarae Russell in the third round out of Notre Dame.

OTHER POSITIONS TO WATCH: Alex Smith is certainly entrenched as the starter for the Chiefs, but they lost back-up Chase Daniel, who went to Philadelphia with hopes of competing for a starting role. Daniel impressed in the preseason in three years behind Smith but never got a significant opportunity. Three young quarterbacks are on the roster with no clear leader in the battle between Tyler Bray, Aaron Murray, and rookie Kevin Hogan. Bray has the most experience and the strongest arm, but this will be a key battle that will be given time to work out in the preseason. The Chiefs also may have a battle at right guard as well as some competition with wide receiver depth.

SEASON OUTLOOK: The Chiefs went 11-5 last season while posting twice the point differential of the Broncos, but the slow start to the season left Denver with the division title and favorable playoff seed. Kansas City won a playoff game last season and the Chiefs have the pieces to be a viable AFC contender, although the AFC West looks like a difficult division. No team did better in the AFC last season with a 10-2 record in conference games and with the years continuing to add up for Alex Smith and Andy Reid, this figures to be a critical season in Kansas City to take the next step.

OAKLAND RAIDERS

Over/Under Win Total: 8.5 (-130 OVER, EVEN UNDER)
Odds to win the AFC West: 5/2
Odds to win the AFC: 12/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 25/1

STAFF CHANGES: It was a competitive first season for Jack Del Rio’s staff with the Raiders going 7-9, the best finish for the franchise since 2011. Oakland has not made the playoffs since losing the Super Bowl after the 2002 season and the staff has mostly been held together for the 2016 season. The offense under Bill Musgrave had a great start to the season before slipping late in the year while Ken Norton’s defense struggled early and came on late. This season, the team will look for more complete and consistent performances while also facing elevated expectations.

KEY POSITON BATTLE: Right Tackle: After a great battle last season, Austin Howard won the spot last season as Menelik Watson was injured before the season opener. Howard was passable in 13 starts last season, but Watson figures to make a push for the starting spot again this season. The Raiders did not address the position in the draft of free agency as they fell they feel they have what they need on the roster.

OTHER POSITIONS TO WATCH: Connor Cook was picked up in the draft and he may push Matt McGloin in a battle for the backup spot at quarterback behind Derek Carr. At safety, Karl Joseph will be under a close watch as he is recovering from a knee injury, but still was deemed worthy of the team’s first round pick. Running back depth will also be of interest behind Latavius Murray with a complementary back needed to step up. Rookie DeAndre Washington out of Texas Tech will get looks while speedster Taiwan Jones is still on the roster.

SEASON OUTLOOK: The competitive 7-9 season was a step forward for the Raiders last season, but the team was once 4-3 before the offense started to struggle late in the season. Oakland did win at Denver last December, but it was an ugly 15-12 win with Brock Osweiler starting for the Broncos and Denver had nearly a 3:1 yardage edge. That was the only win vs. a playoff team for the Raiders last season and the schedule is loaded with long travel miles and few easy games in a very competitive division. The expectations are elevated and handling the added pressure of the first significant meaningful games for the franchise in a long time will be a challenge.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

Over/Under Win Total: 7 (-115 OVER, -115 UNDER)
Odds to win the AFC West: 13/2
Odds to win the AFC: 33/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 66/1

STAFF CHANGES: Mike McCoy’s spot leading the Chargers was certainly a question mark after a very disappointing 2015 season. McCoy was retained and the big move is bringing back Ken Whisenhunt as the offensive coordinator. Whisenhunt had a great 2013 season with the Chargers in that role before taking the Tennessee head coaching position. John McNulty is following Whisenhunt from Tennessee as the new tight ends coach, while former Patriots offensive line coach Dave DeGuglielmo was also added to the staff although Jeff Davidson will be the new offensive line coach. Craig Aukerman was promoted to special teams coordinator and former All-Pro Chris Harris will be an assistant with the defensive backs. Former Jacksonville defensive coordinator Bob Babich was also added to coach the linebackers as there were many changes to piece together a staff in what will be a critical year for McCoy though his contract does now run through 2017.

KEY POSITON BATTLE: Center: After going through five different starting centers last season, this spot is the most important of the summer for San Diego. Trevor Robinson ended the season as the team’s center but they added former Bears center Matt Slauson and drafted Max Tuerk in the third round out of USC. Former starter Chris Watt is also still on the roster and while Slauson is the presumed starter, the team added four lineman and two new offensive line coaches since last season as there is a lot to be sorted out.

OTHER POSITIONS TO WATCH: With Joey Bosa still unsigned, the defensive line has some question marks. Locked into spots should be Corey Liuget and free agent addition Brandon Mebane, but after that there will be battles in August with eight other defensive lineman on the roster, not counting Bosa. Safety is another area on defense with reasonable depth, but lacking standout proven starters. Rookie Adrian McDonald has shown a lot of promise in camp and Darrel Stuckey will likely keep a spot for his excellent special teams abilities. Depth at wide receiver and tight end should also feature some competition on offense while backup quarterback could be a true one-on-one battle between Zach Mettenberger and Kellen Clemens.

SEASON OUTLOOK: Last season, the Los Angeles cloud hung over the Chargers all season and while that prospect isn’t going away, the team should enter 2016 with a bit more stability with McCoy extended and with a team that lost nine games by eight or fewer points. Getting a few of those games to go the other way could dramatically change the season for San Diego with the Chargers featuring a defense that was formidable down the stretch last season. The offensive line should be much more stable this season and that should lead to improvement throughout the offense and a worst-to-first scenario isn’t all that unrealistic even though it is a difficult division with three other teams that expect to be playoff teams. The Chargers still look like the #4 team in the West to most, but they are a team that could surprise.

AFC Betting Outlook
By Scott Rickenbach
VegasInsider.com

AFC East

Buffalo Bills – The Bills had a rather quiet off-season after making a lot of noise heading into the 2015 season. It didn’t help a lot as Buffalo went from 9-7 in 2014 to 8-8 in 2015. Buffalo looks poised for a similar mediocre performance this season. One thing to keep in mind about the Bills is that they have been much better at home than on the road in terms of their ATS (Against-the-Spread) records the past three seasons. Buffalo has gone 16-8 ATS at home and only 9-13-2 on the road.

Miami Dolphins – The Dolphins should improve after a disappointing 6-10 record last season. Miami certainly could be a bit undervalued early on as many bettors likely felt the burn of the Dolphins last season as they compiled a 5-11 ATS record. The loss of RB Lamar Miller is significant even though Miami did have a decent draft. The Dolphins did have some significant roster turnover on defense but head coach Adam Gase is a former offensive coordinator so the Dolphins may surprise some teams early this season. With a tough early season schedule, there could be some ATS value being offered early with the Fish in 2016.

New England Patriots – The Patriots have gone 15-6-3 ATS at home the past three seasons combined while only going 8-16 ATS (33%) on the road during this same stretch. That is certainly something to be wary of as you evaluate lines this coming season. Keep in mind this could result in some over-inflated spreads on the Pats at home. Of course the Tom Brady suspension (first four games of the season) will mean we see plenty of Jimmy Garoppolo under center early this season and that will certainly have an impact on the early lines involving the Patriots. Once Brady is back, keep in mind that the Pats have enjoyed a lot of success for many years thanks to beating up on a relatively weak AFC East division. This season, the Patriots will be facing the AFC North and NFC West as part of the non-divisional action and that means some tough match-ups for the Pats. Look for value in fading the Pats, especially if the Brady early season suspension has a carry-over effect when he returns.

New York Jets – The Jets look to be in similar shape on offense this season based on losing a couple of key players but also adding some key personnel in the off-season. The defense is where there is concern as the Jets did lose a handful of starters there. Replacing that production will take time and that is why the totals may be a good place to pay attention to in terms of Jets games early this season. The offensive production should at least be on par with last season but we could see the defense slip up some and that will be especially true early this season until the jell. The Jets record is likely to see a drop-off this season but the production on offense should remain at a respectable level. Keep an eye on the early season totals in Jets games.

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens – The Ravens had a solid draft that really helps their depth coming into this season. The offensive line has been bolstered and Baltimore suffered so much in the way of the “injury bug” last season that I expect a complete reversal this season. The Ravens only covered five of their 16 games last season and I expect to see a lot of value with Baltimore early this season as the markets may be slow to adjust to just how solid this team is when they aren’t bogged down with injuries. The Ravens look to be improved on both sides of the ball as they also did well in the draft on the defensive side of the ball plus the acquisition of safety Eric Weddle in free agency bolsters the secondary. Experience, talent, and some added depth through the draft combine to make the Ravens a likely team on the rise this year. Remember that Baltimore was a 10-6 team in 2014. They’ll respond after the 2015 debacle.

Cincinnati Bengals – The Bengals were a stellar ATS team in 2015 and, of course, these trends have a way of quickly reversing. The ball bounced the way of Cincinnati last year to put it mildly. While this is certainly still going to be a strong Bengals team in 2016 there will have to be some drop-off at the cashiers’ window. The loss of receiving talent – in the form of Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu – is going to affect Cincy this year. This defense looks solid again and the Bengals have gone 19-13 to the 'under' the past two seasons and there could be some value again in the 'under' department this year. A tough early season schedule is going to test the moxie of this team and I will likely look for value in going against them early this season after they covered an insane 11 of their 16 games last season.

Cleveland Browns – The Browns have some excitement with Robert Griffin III on board but of course it is tough to get too excited when you’re off of a 3-13 season and have struggled for so many years. Cleveland is unlikely to see much of a change in success level this season because their defense lost a ton of starting talent. Still, off of a season where they covered just five of their 16 games, we may see some early line value spots with the Browns. The best value however is likely to be with the totals. The defense lost so much (in terms of starters) that I expect it to be a problem and this will be especially true early on in the new season. Look for the Browns to have solid potential for being an 'over' team early this season as it takes time for the new personnel to jell on defense.

Pittsburgh Steelers – If Cincinnati does drop off a little it is likely that the Steelers will be there to gladly take their place. My only problem with the Steelers from an ATS perspective is that it could be tough to find spots where there is line value with them. They had one of the top offenses in the league last year and that tremendous production should continue this season (even without wide receiver Martavis Bryant) as they already proved last year that they could move the ball very well even when key guys like Le'Veon Bell are sidelined. On defense, the Steelers secondary should be improved but it is important to evaluate early on how some of the new talent is developing. If they struggle at the NFL level the Steelers could be in for some shootouts as the secondary must come together quickly. Better health in the running back department and a better schedule (face AFC East and NFC East this season) equates to a solid season for the Steelers but it will be a “pick your spots” situation for value as some of the lines could be inflated.

AFC South

Houston Texans – Good draft on the offensive side of the ball but how quickly will those guys be key contributors is going to be the important factor for Houston early this season. Of course the offense was the focus for Texans in the off-season and they picked up some key pieces via free agency. However, the defense did lose a few pieces and has to have some drop-off after a fantastic season last year. Houston could be a play against early on as they have some tough match-ups in the first six weeks of the season. Also, if the offense takes some time to jell with a new QB then there could be more trouble looming.

Indianapolis Colts – Strengthened the offensive line in the off-season as they want better protection for QB Andrew Luck who is hopeful of more time on the field this season! The Colts have plenty of motivation after last season was impacted by the Luck injury situation and Indianapolis dropped to 8-8 after back-to-back 11-5 seasons. The Colts defense could be standing in the way of the Colts making a run at the AFC South this season. It will depend on how well the new faces integrate because Indianapolis did lose some key cogs from last season’s defense and the defense was already a liability for the Colts last year. With the Jaguars and Titans on the way up and the Texans likely having another solid season, Indianapolis will have their hands full in this division. That statement holds true even with a healthy Luck. The D must step up and that will likely prove to again be an area of concern for the Colts.

Jacksonville Jaguars – You can look at the stats for the Jaguars offense from last season (and now add in the fact that they added RB Chris Ivory from the Jets) and there is reason to believe Jacksonville will be strong on that side of the ball again. Some changes on the offensive line could result in a little uncertainty early in the season but eventually the Jags offense should be firing on all cylinders. That means the Jaguars could definitely be on their continued upward trajectory this season as the defense looks much improved coming into this season. Held back by the D last season, this season the defense should make big strides toward improvement thanks to some key free agent pick-ups as well as some solid draft picks in the early rounds that can contribute right away. Jacksonville should be a team on your ATS watch list!

Tennessee Titans – Like Jacksonville, Tennessee is likely to be on the way up this season. The Titans have been a money-burner the past two seasons with an 8-24 ATS (25%) mark! That means value should be available playing on Tennessee early this season before many realize how much improvement there truly is with this Titans team. Tennessee’s defense, in terms of yardage allowed per game, was actually respectable last season. The problem for the Titans was on offense but they are making strides in the right direction. Tennessee made big pick-ups in the running game through both the draft and free agency. Also, QB Marcus Mariota should show improvement in his 2nd year and should face less pressure with some fortification to the offensive line for this season. On the defensive side of the ball, I like the additions the Titans have for the secondary and, though the SU record may not improve drastically this season I do expect the ATS record to improve substantially for the Titans. They should prove to be a dangerous dog this season!

AFC West

Denver Broncos – After going 12-4 each of the prior two seasons and 13-3 three years ago, the Broncos are in for quite a drop this year as I don’t expect them to reach double digits in victories. The offense was certainly not the strength for Denver last season but it quickly has gone from “middle of the pack” to “significant concern” as Peyton Manning has retired and Brock Osweiler is now in Houston. The Broncos have a “question mark” with Mark Sanchez at QB and rookie Paxton Lynch is certainly going to take time to develop. On defense the Broncos will still be solid but, even there; some drop-off is expected as they lost a couple of key starters in free agency. After going 27-19-2 ATS in regular season action the last three seasons, I expect to see some solid ATS value in going against the Broncos early and often this season.

Kansas City Chiefs – The Chiefs now “have their shot” after playing 'second-fiddle' to the Broncos in the AFC West each of the last three seasons. However, Kansas City is not without some concerns of their own. KC lost not just one, not even just two, but three starters from the offensive line in the off-season. Continuity on the offensive line is so important that this could certainly be an early-season “issue” for Kansas City. Certainly it will be something to keep an eye on early in the schedule. One thing that could help KC is a relatively favorable early season schedule but even if they get some SU wins and I expect to see some spots with ATS value in going against them. The adds they made on defense in the draft will take some time to contribute and they did lose quite a lot of depth on the defensive side of the ball. The Chiefs were plus-14 in turnovers (29-15) last year so they had some “good fortune” to say the least and that has a way of turning around from year to year! The ball is likely to bounce the “other way” this season.

Oakland Raiders – With Derek Carr at QB the Raiders are “dangerous” on offense and it often gives them that chance at “back door cover” potential. Coming into this season, with some upgrades on defense, the Raiders could jump up a little again after improving from 3-13 two seasons ago to 7-9 last year. Getting to .500 is certainly in Oakland’s sights after improving their secondary and linebacking corps through free agency and strengthening the overall depth on defense through the draft. In particular, I would look for the Raiders to improve their ATS results at home this season after a dismal 2-6 ATS showing on their home turf last year.

San Diego Chargers – The Chargers are a team that I could be looking at more in terms of value with their O/U’s than with their spreads this season. San Diego has been an 'under' team in terms of totals in recent seasons but with the offense staying solid (led by Phillip Rivers) and the defense in for a drop-off (departure of Eric Weddle and other significant starters), this team could be in for some explosive, high-scoring games. This could be particularly true early this season as there will most certainly be an “adjustment phase” on the defensive side of the ball. It is likely to be another tough season in San Diego (4-12 last year) but at least their games should be very entertaining if you like offense.

AFC East NFL Betting Preview
By Steve Merril
Covers.com

Buffalo Bills (2015: 8-8 SU, 7-8-1 ATS)

Odds to win division: +570
Season win total: 8

Why bet the Bills: Rex Ryan’s first year in Buffalo did not go as planned. Ryan’s forte is defense, and he inherited an outstanding defense that actually regressed in 2015. But Ryan’s schemes need young, fast defenders and he has that in place heading into 2016. The Bills’ defense is the backbone of the team, and if they can find some consistent offense, Buffalo could finally have a winning season.

Why not bet the Bills: The Bills haven’t had a winning record since 2004, and they haven’t made the playoffs since 1999. Over the last 18 years, Buffalo has had eight different head coaches. The biggest issue surrounding the Bills is on the offensive side of the ball. Buffalo’s offense has ranked 22nd and worse in points scored in 11 of the last 12 seasons.

Season win total pick: Under 8

Miami Dolphins (2015: 6-10 SU, 5-11 ATS)

Odds to win division: +825
Season win total: 7

Why bet the Dolphins: Joe Philbin was not a good fit for Miami. He had three straight losing seasons before getting fired early in the 2015 season. The Dolphins will be led by former Denver and Chicago offensive coordinator Adam Gase in 2016. That is a good thing for this team, but it’s going to take time to turn things around in South Florida. Expectations are extremely low, but the Dolphins may be able to catch a few opponents by surprise this season simply from underachieving over the last couple of years.

Why not bet the Dolphins: The Dolphins’ wins came against the dregs of the league last season. Seven of Miami’s 10 losses in 2015 came by 10 points or more and since its roster is weaker than in year’s past, this may be a long 2016 for the Dolphins. Miami has only made the playoffs twice over the last 15 seasons with its last appearance coming in 2008. That streak will remain intact in 2016.

Season win total pick: Under 7

New England Patriots (2015: 12-4 SU, 8-7-1 ATS)

Odds to win division: -220
Season win total: 10.5

Why bet the Patriots: New England has won 10 or more games in 13 consecutive years. The Patriots have also won the AFC East title seven straight years, and in 12 of the last 13 years overall. New England has been the best team in the NFL for the last decade plus, and it’s not even debatable. The Patriots come into this season off an AFC Championship loss to Denver, so the team has plenty of motivation for 2016. As long as Bill Belichick is the coach and Tom Brady is the quarterback, the Patriots are a legitimate Super Bowl contender.

Why not bet the Patriots: Patriots quarterback Tom Brady will be suspended for four games because of the “Deflate Gate” scandal. New England will be forced to start inexperienced Jimmy Garoppolo under center, but fortunately for him three of those games will be at home. If the Patriots struggle while Brady is out, all of their impressive numbers listed above may be in jeopardy in 2016.

Season win total pick: Over 10.5

New York Jets (2015: 10-6 SU, 9-6-1 ATS)

Odds to win division: +630
Season win total: 8

Why bet the Jets: Former Arizona defensive coordinator Todd Bowles was the new head coach for the Jets in 2015, and he stepped into a pretty good situation. Bowles capitalized, and New York won 10 games. Bowles is a defensive guru, and the Jets’ defense was exceptionally good. The Jets will likely win with defense once again this season and if the offense improves, a playoff spot in 2016 isn’t out of reach for New York.

Why not bet the Jets: As it was before Bowles, New York’s offense is the biggest issue for the Jets. Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick had a terrific season, but it’s hard to imagine him duplicating those results in 2016. New York’s schedule will also be much tougher this season, so the team must improve greatly in multiple areas if they want to come close to double-digit wins again.

Season win total pick: Under 8

AFC Betting Preview
By Marc Lawrence
VegasInsider.com

Toe-to-Toe

Not so coincidentally, the AFC stands 151-173-1 SU and 152-160-13 ATS in non-conference clashes against the NFC the past five seasons.

They have gone 170-151 ‘Over’ in those games, including 104-80-3 ‘Over’ when playing as a dog.

In intra conference games – AFC versus AFC – over the teams off a SU underdog win have struggled to get back up the following game, going just 66-86-9 ATS. Inside those numbers is a paltry 1-7-1 ATS mark as double-digit dogs, and a dismal 2-10 SUATS mark if the team owns a win percentage of less than .250 on the season.

Passer Rating Differential

In a passer-friendly league these days, it’s important to know that you win when you have a quality quarterback, and you lose when you don’t.

According to a study I recently completed, over the last four years of the 40 teams in the NFL that ranked in the Top 10 in season ending offensive pass efficiency, 31 of them made the playoffs.

Of the 40 teams n the NFL that ranked in the Top 10 in season ending defensive pass efficiency, 29 of them make the playoffs.

And of the 14 teams that combined to finish the season ranked in the Top 10 in both offensive and defensive pass efficiency, 13 of them found their way to the postseason.

The only one that did not: the 2015 New York Jets.

AFC EAST PREVIEW

BUFFALO

TEAM THEME: WAITING ON THE HERD

With nary a trip to the Super Bowl in 23 years, and no playoff appearance in 17 years – the longest drought in the NFL – it’s been a long time between drinks of postseason water for the thirsting Bills. And with it the call went out to Rex Ryan last season. A .500 campaign resulted, making 2016 a year of promise in Buffalo. For that to happen, the Bills will need to shore up a defense that underachieved last year. Thus, you knew it was a Rex Ryan draft this season with the additions of DE Shaq Lawson (Clemson), ILB Reggie Ragland (Alabama) and DT Adolphus Washington (Ohio State) with the first three picks of Buffalo’s draft this year. The re-tooling should go a long way toward shoring up a stop-unit that surprisingly declined a whopping 44 YPG under Ryan last season, afterwards releasing not-so-super Mario Williams.

Also gone from the offense is WR-KR Percy Harvin. It was the attack unit, though, that sparked the team. Led by superstar WR Sammy Watkins, the Bills offense improved 3 points and 44 YPG in 2015 while out-gaining 10 of its 16 opponents. In the process, QB Tyrod Taylor blossomed in his first year as a starter in the league, finishing with 20 TDs and 6 INTs in his 14 starts. Remember, in his first two years with the New York Jets, Ryan won 24 games, including four playoff victories. Buffalo fans can hardly wait.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Rex Ryan is 0-8 SU and 0-7-1 ATS the last three years in non-division games off one win exact.

PLAY ON: vs. Jacksonville (11/27) - *KEY

MIAMI

TEAM THEME: TUNSILITIS

Tick. Tick. Tick. “And with the No. 13 pick of the 2016 NFL Draft the Miami Dolphins select Laremy Tunsil, offensive tackle from Mississippi,” proclaimed commissioner Roger Goodell. As 12 other teams went silent, Tunsil plummeted from the potential No. 1 pick of the draft to Miami where the Dolphins said gas mask be damned, it’s been 15 years since our last playoff win, we’ll take him. He better fortifies an OL that features two Pro Bowl linemen in C Mike Pouncey and T Branden Albert. Its music to the ears for QB Ryan Tannehill, who has been sacked a league-high 184 times the last four years. And to new head coach Adam Gase, former Denver Broncos OC and QB whisperer. Word from Dolphins camp is Gase is enamored with Tannehill’s talent and work ethic, as is new QB coach Clyde Christenson, who coached Andrew Luck the past four seasons in Indianapolis.

The drafting of gifted WR Leonte Carroo, a 3rd round pick from Rutgers, along with a finally healthy DeVante Parker (Miami’s top choice in last year’s draft) and continued development from Jarvis Landry (110 receptions last year) and Kenny Stills should give Tannehill plenty of weapons. The additions of DE Mario Williams, LB Kiko Alonso and S Byron Maxwell figures to shore up a defense led by stud DT Ndamukong Suh. Now, if Pro Bowl DE Cameron Wake bounces back, the Dolphin ‘D’ can become prominent once again.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Miami is 0-11 ATS in December since 2013.

PLAY AGAINST: at Baltimore 12/4 - *KEY

NEW ENGLAND

TEAM THEME: PATENT PENDING

After capturing its 7th straight AFC East title last season, and 12th in the last 13 years, it’s safe to say the Pats pretty much claim division copyright. Hoping not to let the patent expire, New England will be forced to start the season with Hall of Fame QB Tom Brady sidelined the first four games (read: Deflategate). Once Brady does suit up, he’ll be operating with a few new faces. WRs Chris Hogan (Buffalo) and Nate Washington (Houston) will look to replace Brandon LaFell, while TE Martellus Bennett (Chicago) joins Rob Gronkowski to form a lethal tight end tandem. Meanwhile, the Patriots traded DE Chandler Jones (12.5 sacks last season), released DT Dominique Easley (1st round pick in 2014) and lost DE Akiem Hick to free agency. They will look instead to newly acquired veteran DE Chris Long (Rams) and MLB Shea McClellin (Chicago) to fill the gap on defense.

However, the best offseason acquisition may not be a player but a coach. That occurred when Bill Belichick convinced OL guru Dante Scarnecchia to return after a two-year absence. A two-year drop of offensive production (from 429 YPG in 2013 to 371 last year) commanded his coming back. With three of the first four games of the year at Gillette Stadium – where New England is 52-5 during the regular season since 2008 – expect veteran RB LeGarrette Blount, running between the aforementioned tight end tandem, to carry a heavy load until Brady’s return.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Patriots are 0-6 ‘In The Stats’ the last six games with the Jets, averaging 271 YPG.

PLAY ON: vs. Denver (12/18) - *KEY as a dog

NEW YORK JETS

TEAM THEME: KNOCK, KNOCK

After enjoying the best offseason of all AFC teams in 2015, and arguably the entire league, the Jets parlayed that into a 10-win, six-game improvement last year. They then proceeded to make key free agent additions in RB Matt Forte, and OT Ryan Clady. Together, they will work with star WRs Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker (each with 1,000 yards and double-digit TD receptions) to help form a potent offense behind returning QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (still unsigned at press time). It was Fitzpatrick’s game skills that keyed a 6-point and 44 yards per game improvement, nearly knocking on the playoff door last year in Todd Bowles’ first season on the sidelines with the Jets. Thus, his re-signing as a free agent with the team is crucial. Especially with the team having to tackle six consecutive .500 or better opponents to open the 2016 season. Fitzpatrick worked with OC Chan Gailey in Buffalo and they appear to be in the same page in New York.

Meanwhile, Bowles put his stamp on the defense down the stretch when his troops, behind a dominant secondary led by CBs Darrelle Revis and Marcus Williams (11 INTs combined), out-yarded each of its final six opponents, limiting them to 311 yards of offense in the process – while falling just short of the playoffs. It’s been six years since Rex Ryan last led Gang Green to the postseason. Bowles has what it takes to get them there this year, if he can overcome the ugly STAT YOU WILL LIKE below.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is 0-17 SU away vs. foes who ended the season with a winning record.

PLAY ON: at Buffalo (9/15) - *KEY

AFC NORTH PREVIEW

BALTIMORE

TEAM THEME: NOT-SO-SUPER JOE

After suffering a string of devastating injuries, as well as the Ravens’ first losing season under John Harbaugh last year, GM Ozzie Newsome went to work and injected youth on both sides of the ball in the draft with eight picks in the first four rounds. Add the fact that WR Breshard Perriman, last year’s No. 1 pick who missed his entire rookie season, takes the field for the first time, and suddenly a young crop of replacements is locked and loaded. In addition, the Ravens inked three big free agents in S Eric Weddle, WR Mike Wallace and TE Benjamin Watson. The return of star RB Justin Forsett, who broke his arm 10 games into the season, cannot be underestimated as the Black Birds’ running game slipped 30 RYPG last season.

And then there is QB Joe Flacco, who simply has not lived up to the hype or the big contract he received after Baltimore captured Super Bowl XVVII. Like Forsett and Steve Smith Jr. and Terrell Suggs, Flacco ended the 2015 season on the injured list. His Total QBR ranking the past three years is No. 24, having tossed more INTs and fewer TDs than he did in the three years prior to winning the Super Bowl MVP award. Thus, with the help of a super-soft opening schedule, the Ravens become a “mission team” in 2016 in more ways than one.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: 15 of the Ravens’ 20 division losses under John Harbaugh have been by a TD or less, with over half of those (8 ) by a field goal or less.

PLAY ON: at Jacksonville (9/25) - *KEY

CINCINNATI

TEAM THEME: BARREN von DALTON

A 12-4 season last year had the Bengals looking like they were possibly in position to win their first playoff game in 25 years – the longest drought in the league – until a late-season injury to Andy Dalton derailed their chances. Unfortunately, the red baron owned the 2nd best passer rating in the league (107.4) when he went down for the year, and Cincy fell to the Steelers in a ‘wild’ 18-16 Wild Card loss. Still, the Bengals have now made the playoffs five straight seasons, while capturing the division title two of the last three years. And though they did hit a home run in this year’s draft, the loss of OC Hue Jackson, who worked wonders with Dalton, is a major cause for concern. They’re hoping the addition of WR Brandon LaFell (New England) and 2nd-round WR Tyler Boyd from Pittsburgh will help fill the holes left by the free agent losses of receivers Marvin Jones and Mohammed Sanu.

Despite opening the campaign against three salty teams that together averaged a dozen wins last season, based on the win-loss record of last year’s opponents, the Bengals (along with the Steelers) will face the 5th softest schedule in 2016 with foes a combined 125-142 (.468). Granted, a 13-3-1 ATS mark last season will be next to impossible to top, but with Dalton and his entire front line back in 2016, they’re more than ready to give that elusive playoff butterfly another try.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Bengals are 11-3 SU and 12-1-1 ATS as a pick or dog of 3 or less points off a DD win under Marvin Lewis.

PLAY ON: at Pittsburgh (9/18)

CLEVELAND

TEAM THEME: BELIEVELAND

Though it seems the Browns have had more starting quarterbacks than wins the past 16 years, the truth is they’ve had only two winning seasons since returning to the NFL in 1999. But the hire of Hue Jackson as head coach should prove to be a stroke of genius. Masterful moves in this year’s draft awarded them the ‘top grade’ of all teams according to Pro Football Focus, while insuring repeated success in drafts to come with the trade of their No. 2 pick to Philadelphia. Granted, this year's roster more closely resembles that of an expansion team, and the front office consists largely of first-time NFL execs, but they were moves that desperately needed to happen in order to wipe away the many years of incompetence.

There’s no question the rebuild will take a few years to fully heal this fractured franchise, but in Jackson they are surely on the right path. The last five head coaches fired in the AFC North were Browns coaches, all of whom were canned after facing the Steelers in the final game of the season. Stopgap QB Robert Griffin III (the 25th starting signal-caller for this team since 1999) was signed in hopes of adding a jolt of stability behind center. And according to QB coach guru Terry Shea, “RG3 has never been healthier and is throwing the ball better than he ever has.” Yes, there are believers in Cleveland once again these days.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Browns were outscored by a total of 154 points last year.

PASS

PITTSBURGH

TEAM THEME: STAND UP AND BE COUNTED

Were it not for standby quarterbacks, the Steelers may likely have been home for the holidays last season. We’re talking opponent’s backups, by the way, not Pittsburgh’s. A quick perusal of last year’s schedule notes the Black Curtain faced a total of 6 reserve starting signal-callers during its final nine games of the season. To their credit, they went 5-1 in those contests, before finally bowing out to Peyton Manning and the Broncos. Ironically, the Steelers will face only one team in its final nine games after its Bye Week this campaign that actually owned a winning record last season.

The better news, though, is that despite the fact that WR Martavius Bryant is suspended for the season, star RB Le’Veon Bell will be playing, and not suspended, to start the season this year. His backup last year, DeAngelo Williams, rushed for over 900 yards and 11 TDs. Together they will form a lethal combination. Unfortunately, TE Heath Bell retired but his replacement, large Ladarius Green, likely figures to become a frequent target for QB Ben Roethlisberger. Big Ben enters off the most productive season of his career, and benefited mightily from Mike Munchak’s OL schemes, but at age 34 one wonders how long he can keep the nuts and bolts in place. In addition, after finishing with the No. 21-ranked defense, the Steelers focused on that side of the ball in this year’s draft with their top three selections all protection players.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Roethlisberger is 20-3 SU in his NFL career games played in Ohio.

PLAY ON: vs. New England (10/23) - *KEY as a dog

AFC SOUTH PREVIEW

HOUSTON

TEAM THEME: 72 LARGE

Yep. The man can coach. After taking over a 2-win squad in 2014, Bill O’Brien has led the Texans to a pair of 9-win seasons... largely without much of a quarterback. After trying to make lemonade from lemon QBs Brian Hoyer, Case Keenum, Brandon Weeden and T.J.Yates, O’Brien gets his wish in 2016 – in a large way, we might add – when career Peyton Manning backup 6’8” Brock Osweiller and his mega contract enters his first full year as a starter in the NFL. And with it the big bird becomes the face of the franchise. Working in tandem with star WR DeAndre Hopkins, rookie WRs Will Fuller and Braxton Miller will operate with new RB Lamar Miller as the offense looks to make strides inside a rapidly improving division.

In order to repeat as AFC South champs, Houston will rely once again on a stout defense, led by sackmeister J.J. Watt (17.5 sacks last season – best in the NFL). Following its Bye Week last season, the Texans’ defense limited five foes to season-low yards. Any added effort from former No. 1 pick Jadeveon Clowney could make this unit special. In closing, though, keep these 2015 numbers in mind when evaluating the $72M spent for Osweiller – Hoyer: 158 of 262 for 60.3%, 1,847 passing yards with 12 TDs and 5 INTs. Osweiller: 156 of 251 for 62.2%, 1,821 passing yards with 9 TDs and 5 INTs.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Texans are 12-2 SU and 11-3 ATS as favorites under O’Brien, including 8-0 SUATS versus an opponent off a loss.

PLAY ON: vs. Indianapolis (10/16) - *KEY as a dog

INDIANAPOLIS

TEAM THEME: GOOD LUCK HORSESHOE

The ‘Greatest Shoe on Earth’ ended the season shoeless when star QB Andrew Luck went from bad-to-out after a myriad of injuries finally ended his season following the Denver game. Through it all the Colts concluded the season a league-worst 2-14 ITS (In The Stats), yet somehow managed 8 wins for the year. The first priority in this year’s draft became bolstering the offensive line, one that offered little-to-no resistance for opposing front sevens. Center Ryan Kelly and OT Le’Raven Clark became targeted commodities, while two other OL were tabbed later in the draft.

Another main concern this year is finding a running game as 33-year old Frank Gore averaged a career-worst 3.7 YPR last season. RB Robert Turbin was acquired as a free agent from the Dallas Cowboys, but it appears the ball will be in Gore’s hands to start the season. Meanwhile 43-year old PK Adam Vinatieri, the league’s oldest player, continued to thrive when he nailed 25 of 27 FGs. A soft getaway this season, with 4 of their first 5 games coming against foes that sported a losing record last year, helps. Perplexing, though, is Luck’s mediocre 21-21 SU and 22-20 ATS mark in games outside the division. While that number is far from bad, it pales in comparison with his 17-2 SU and 14-3-2 ATS mark inside the division. But make no mistake, this team needs it’s lucky horseshoe back and will go only as far as a healthy Luck can carry them. Remember, Luck is 16-4 SUATS in games off a loss in his NFL career, including 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS as a dog.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Colts are 13-1 SU and 12-1-1 ATS when playing on Thursdays in their franchise history.

PLAY AGAINST: vs. Jacksonville (10/2)

JACKSONVILLE

TEAM THEME: OPERATION OVERHAUL

While a 5-11 season would normally be depressing for most teams, it was not the case for the Jaguars last year. For openers, 6 of the 11 losses were by a touchdown or less. Factor in that only Tom Brady threw more TD passes than QB Blake Bortles in 2015 and suddenly things go from bad to better. Sure, Bortles led the league in interceptions, and was sacked more than anyone in the league, but he also improved from 11 TDs in his rookie season to 35 TDs last year. A superlative draft coupled with the debut of last year’s No. 1 choice LB Dante Fowler – the No. 3 pick in last year’s draft lost for the year during rookie minicamp – suddenly puts a new spin on this troubled franchise.

There is no refuting the fact that the pass defense was atrocious, but FS Jalen Ramsey, this year’s top draft pick, quickly figures to be an impact player. In addition, free agent pickups Prince Amukamara and Tashaun Gipson figure to add instant relief to the secondary. If LB Myles Jack can contribute, then the defense quickly goes from shoddy to duteous. With 6 of it seven choices from a fabulous draft this season coming on the defensive side of the ball, the Jags’ stop-unit figures to make major gains. Wideouts Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns are a dynamite WR tandem, and the addition of RB Chris Ivory makes the offense legit. Look out AFC South. There are new kids on the block and they’re for real.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Jaguars will face only one opponent in their first seven games that owned a winning record last season.

PLAY AGAINST: at Indianapolis (1/1)

TENNESSEE

TEAM THEME: LISTEN TO THIS MULARKEY

Is head coach Mike Mularkey along for the ride, or can he head the Titans in the right direction? We’ll know sooner than later. Prized QB Marcus Mariota was inspiring in his debut last season, despite the firing of Ken Whisenhunt, the former head coach/quarterback whisperer. Tennessee once again struck gold in this year’s draft while also adding RB DeMarco Murray and WR Rishard Matthews to bolster its attack. In addition, they signed the best free agent center on the market in Ben Jones while adding OT Jack Conklin with its No. 1 pick in the draft. Along with 2014’s No. 1 selection OT Taylor Lewan, the OL is suddenly in good hands.

Long-time league defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau fits with the Titans like peanut butter with chocolate. His hire last year helped solidify a Tennessee defense that was in denial as Tennessee improved 31 YPG in yardage allowed under his lead. As we pointed out on these pages last year, the Tennessean.com said, “LeBeau is in the same union as Santa Claus and the Tooth Fairy. He shows up in the middle of the night and delivers great defense while we’re sleeping.” His defenses have earned five No. 1 rankings and he owns two Super Bowl rings with the Steelers. It’s said he makes average players good, good players great, and great players elite. And we live by our words. Don’t look now but the AFC South is suddenly up for grabs.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: As an NFL head coach, Mularkey is 6-1 SUATS as a favorite of more than 3 points.

PLAY ON: vs. Cleveland (10/16)

AFC WEST PREVIEW

DENVER

TEAM THEME: DRAINED

Let’s tell it like it is. Since 1980, defending Super Bowl champions are losers the following season... at least to the spread. Collectively they’ve managed to beat the spread less than 49% of the time, well below the 54% level needed to show a profit. Worse, only 3 of them have repeated as champions. So where does that leave retired Peyton Manning’s Broncos this season? Much like a lost traveler in cannibal country: mainly in hot water. Not only must Denver soldier on without Manning but they are also without his backup Brock Osweiler, who took the money and ran off to Houston. The Broncos also lost DE Malik Jackson and LB Danny Trevathan from a defense that led the league in sacks (52) last season. A sub-par draft won’t supply many answers this year, either.

While they traded up to pluck QB Paxton Lynch in the first round, he figures to be holding the clipboard for Mark Sanchez for a while. Fourth-round RB Devontae Booker (Utah) may end up being a diamond in the rough while pushing C.J. Anderson for playing time. With an offense in transition, it appears the defense will once again be the key. It’s not often you find a team that won a Super Bowl yet was out-yarded in every playoff game in the process. Here’s hoping Von Miller and company keep their foot on the pedal. Otherwise, an orange flush could be in the offing.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Broncos are 15-0 SU and 14-1 ATS away in division games the last five years.

PLAY AGAINST: vs. Oakland (11/6)

KANSAS CITY

TEAM THEME: ANDY DANGERFIELD

One would think that a team who flung 10 straight wins together to clinch a playoff spot would be a hot commodity the following year. It’s not necessarily so, though, with the Chiefs. They flew under the radar during most of a 10-game win skein last season as they were installed as favorites of more than a touchdown only two times throughout the winning blitz. And speaking of underrated, QB Alex Smith, whose 18 TDs and 6 INTs equated into a rock-solid 93.4 QB Rating in 2014, bettered those marks in 2015 when he posted a 95.4 QB Rating on 20 TDs and 7 INTs.

However, it’s head coach Andy Reid that is living high off the hog in Kansas City these days. With 32 wins in three seasons with the Chiefs, and sporting a 0-8 SUATS mark in postseason play dating back to 1994, KC finally managed to win a playoff game in stunning fashion last season when they blanked the Texans, 30-0, in Houston. So why is it Kansas City remains the Rodney Dangerfield of the NFL? For openers, the loss of star LB Justin Houston, the defense’s best player who averaged more than 11 sacks per year in his five-year career, to a possible season-ending ACL injury in March could prove devastating. And OC Doug Pederson is now the Philadelphia Eagles head coach. So the heat is now back on Andy. Right where he wants it.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Chiefs head coach Andy Reid is 17-0 SU with rest versus sub .888 opponents.

PLAY AGAINST: vs. Houston (9/18) - *KEY

OAKLAND

TEAM THEME: JUST MOVE, BABY

In going 7-9 in his first season with the Raiders last year, head coach Jack Del Rio managed to put a halt to TEN double-digit loss seasons over the previous eleven years. They weren’t finished there, though. During the offseason Oakland brought in free agent LB Bruce Irvin and signed CB Sean Smith and S Reggie Nelson, who tied for the lead in interceptions with Cincinnati last season. The Raiders also aced the draft in acquiring Karl Joseph of West Virginia, the best safety on the board. By the time the dust had settled, the Vegas, err, Oakland Raiders earned the best offseason grade of all 32 NFL teams from Pro Football Focus.

If Del Rio can manage a bi-polar schedule to his advantage, he could find his team back in the playoffs for the first time since 2003. That’s because the Raiders face the easiest slate in the league during the first half of the season, taking on only one foe with a winning record while the other seven owned a 38-74 mark combined last year. The second half of the itinerary is another matter when Oakland faces only one opponent that sported a losing record last year, with the other seven logging a 75-37 collective win-loss record. And amazingly, as a result CG Technology at the M Resort installed the Raiders as dogs in only 4 games this season. Coupled with 3 of their first 4 games in Eastern Time zones, and one of its home games in Mexico City, Oakland's schedule will be challenging. With a franchise QB in Derek Carr, a superstar WR in Amari Cooper and arguably the best LB in the league in Khalil Mack anchoring the team, this team is hoping it doesn’t crap out this year.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Raiders are 1-12 SUATS vs. foes off a pair of losses by 7 or more points each.

PLAY AGAINST: vs. Baltimore (10/2)

SAN DIEGO

TEAM THEME: RIVERS’ EDGE

After taking the gas in every division game last season – the only team in the league to do so – the Chargers basically played two different halves in the season. During their first eight games, they managed to win the stats 7 times – while claiming just two wins for their effort. As a result, the white flag went up as San Diego went 2-6 ITS (In The Stats) while finishing with their lowest win total since 2003. Making matters worse, the Bolts took a major hit during the offseason, losing star S Eric Weddle, WR Malcom Floyd, and TE Ladaruis Green, all to free agency.

The big news on offense was the signing of OC Ken Whisenhunt, whose lone season with QB Philip Rivers and the Chargers in 2013 concluded with a career year for Rivers when San Diego finished 5th in the league in total offense after having been 31st the year prior. It’s safe to say that at 34 years old, Rivers needs Whisenhunt at this stage of his career like Sonny needed Cher. Sure, Rivers is 32-12 SU in December throughout his NFL career, but even that record took a hit (1-3) last year. New target Travis Benjamin (Cleveland) figures to earn his keep, while the Chargers look to get one more upright year from creaky, 35-year old TE Antonio Gates. Should top receiver Keenan Allen bounce back from a season-ending injury last year, improvement looks to be in the offing.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: San Diego is 10-1 ATS as a road dog of more than 4 points under Mike McCoy.

PLAY ON: vs. Oakland (10/9) - *KEY +4.5 or more points

AFC North Preview
By Bruce Marshall
VegasInsider.com

As always, teams are listed in order of predicted finish, with 2015 straight-up, pointspread, and over/under results included...

It was a bit odd seeing the Baltimore Ravens (2015 SU 5-11; ATS 6-9-1; O/U 7-9) out of the playoff mix a year ago after qualifying for the postseason in six of HC John Harbaugh’s first seven seasons on the job. Upon inspection, however, it was totally understandable considering the casualty list (a league-high 20 players on injured reserve!) that effectively sabotaged the campaign. By December, QB Joe Flacco, RB Justin Forsett, and WR Steve Smith were all out, and 2015 never began for rookie WR Breshard Perriman, KO’d in preseason. And that was just on the offensive side. How the team stayed mostly competitive the entire season and did not wave the white flag was the latest confirmation of Harbaugh’s ability to motivate. Along the way, Harbaugh was able to coax a couple of close wins over AFC North nemesis Pittsburgh.

Despite all of last year’s problems, there were nonetheless a few green shoots on the otherwise barren 2015 landscape, as some youngsters (WR Kamar Aiken, RB Buck Allen, & TEs Crockett Gillmore & Maxx Williams among them) displayed promise after being thrust into the lineup sooner than expected, and the “D” still held up fairly well despite the injuries. Now, after some key FA additions and what appears to be a bountiful draft haul engineered by GM Ozzie Newsome, a quick return to relevance would come as no surprise, especially if the injury situation provides a few more breaks than a year ago.

After all, the Baltimore fan base is now expecting as much after the Orioles have returned to contending status and local product Michael Phelps added to his all-time record medal haul at the Rio Olympics!

A few years removed from his massive contract, QB Flacco (off of knee surgery) should at least have a better supporting cast around him in the fall. Vet wideout Steve Smith decided to return for one more shot at reaching 1000 career receptions after suffering an Achilles tendon tear midway thru last season. Though Perriman continues to have knee issues and remained on the PUP list deep into preseason, the offseason FA additions of ex-Dolphins and Vikings wideout Mike Wallace, plus ex-Saints and Patriots TE Ben Watson, gives Flacco a potentially upgraded collection of targets. Watson’s presence, along with the overload of returnees at TE, suggests Harbaugh and o.c. Marc Trestman might opt for more double-TE sets in the fall.

As for GM Newsome, he addressed the OL early in the draft, investing a first-round pick on Notre Dame T Ronnie Stanley, who effectively fills the gap created by Kelechi Osemele’s FA departure, and sources suggest that Trestman and OL coach Juan Castillo will be working on the same page this fall, which didn’t always seem the case a year ago. While the RBs corps has a “same-y” look, one of Newsome’s draft steals, fourth-round TD machine Kenneth Dixon from La Tech, has run with flair in camp and in early preseason action and could provide extra spark to the infantry. Meanwhile, ex-Southern Cal RB Allen showed enough promise in 2015 that he likely takes snaps away from vet Forsett, not the pass-catching threat as is Allen out of the backfield. If the Ravens continue to bog down in enemy territory as they did a year ago when dropping from 13th to 26th in red-zone efficiency, near-automatic PK Justin Tucker, who has become the fastest kicker in the league history (60 games) to reach 500 points, is still around to salvage three points from any stalled drives.

Another of Newsome’s offseason moves, adding vet FS Eric Weddle from San Diego in free agency, might solve what has been a question mark on the defense since Ed Reed’s departure after the 2012 Super Bowl year. Another unquestioned plus for the stop unit would be the return to health of OLB Terrell Suggs, who went down in the 2015 opener at Denver with an Achilles tendon tear. Suggs began the preseason on the PUP list but is expected to be activated before the regular-season opener on September 11 vs. the Bills.

Despite the various injuries a year ago, the “D” remained rather robust vs. the run (ranking a respectable 12th) and believes it has fortified the DL with third-round pick DE Bronson Kaufusi, a versatile BYU product who can fill a variety of roles alongside ex-Florida State stopper Timmy Jernigan and NT Brandon Williams, who has emerged as a run-stuffer of note. The presence of a potential hybrid such as Kaufusi plus the healthy returns of Suggs and Elvis Dumervil (who had offseason foot surgery) suggests that vet d.c. Dean Pees can resurrect the pressure his 3-4 looks need from the edge. The age of Suggs and the recent drop in Dumervil’s numbers loom as concerns, though second-year LB Za’Darius Smith emerged as an effective pass rush force a year ago, and ex-Bama thumper C.J. Mosley has developed into a force at ILB.

Harbaugh and Pees are also hoping for a healthy return from CB Jimmy Smith, who was playing at a Pro Bowl-level a couple of years ago before being slowed by foot injuries. The late-season move of ex-CB Ladarius Webb to SS went smooth enough last December to make the switch permanent, and if Weddle still has something left in his tank, the Ravens believe their defensive backfield should be upgraded.

While it is going out on a limb to forecast a quick recovery by the Ravens, Harbaugh has proven adept at squeezing every last ounce from his personnel since his hiring in 2008. We are more convinced that last year in Baltimore was a one-off, due to the inordinate amount of injuries, than a sign of sustained decline. If all of the dominoes fall in the right direction this fall, and Flacco is fully recovered from his knee injury, a quick return to contention by the Raves would be no surprise. After all, prior to last season and the injuries, Baltimore was the most consistent performer in the North for most of the past decade.

Spread-wise, do not expect a repeat of last year’s 0-4-1 M&T Bank Stadium mark as chalk, a byproduct of the spate of injuries. Previous mention of the Steelers also notes the ultra-competitive nature of that series, which resurrected last season after three double-digit margins (including Baltimore’s wild card win at Heinz Field) in 2014; excluding that campaign two years ago, seven straight regular-season games between the two teams have been decided by 3 points or fewer since 2011!

Are the critics of the Cincinnati Bengals (2015 SU 12-5; ATS 13-3-1; O/U 7-10) and HC Marvin Lewis being a bit harsh? After all, qualifying for the playoffs is still a big deal in the NFL. Ask the Buffalo Bills, who haven’t done as much this millennium. Making the postseason in five straight years, as Cincy has done, is even more impressive. Failing to win a Super Bowl is hardly a crime, either, not having kept some outstanding coaches (Bud Grant and Marv Levy come to mind) out of the Hall of Fame.

Still, consider that when the Denver Broncos were recently qualifying for the playoffs under HC John Fox, but not winning it all, they decided to find another coach who might be able to win them a Super Bowl...which Gary Kubiak did a year ago. Meanwhile, the Bengals and Lewis have been one-and-done in the postseason for five years running, but Cincy owner Mike Brown has given no indication of turning in another direction for his head coach. In fact, Lewis (hired in 2003) was extended for another year, thru 2017, after the latest postseason exit.

There, in a nutshell, perhaps, is why the Broncos are a champion and the Bengals remain, and likely continue to remain, merely a contender, and nothing more.

Of all of the recent Cincy flame-outs in the playoffs, none were as painful as a year ago, as the Bengals seemed poised to end their postseason win drought that extended to 1990. Against AFC North rival Pittsburgh in the wild card round, Cincy had rallied from a 15-0 deficit with 16 straight points in the 4th Q and had KO’d Steeler QB Ben Roethlisberger. Moreover, the Steelers had just turned over the ball in their own territory inside of 2 minutes to play when LB Vontaze Burfict picked off Big Ben backup Landry Jones. But RB Jeremy Hill promptly fumbled the ball back to the Men of Steel, who got another chance from their 9-yard-line with 1:23 to play. A compromised Rotherlisberger would miraculously re-enter the game and painstakingly move Pittsburgh just past midfield with under 30 seconds to play when the Bengals were whistled for back-to-back personal fouls (committed by Burfict and CB Adam Jones) on the same play. Gifted possession at the Cincy 17, Steelers PK Chris Boswell would boot the game-winning field goal with 18 seconds to play. Locals could have been excused for contemplating a jump into icy Ohio River adjacent to Paul Brown Stadium after that numbing 18-16 defeat.

In retrospect, however, 2015 was the Bengals’ best season under Lewis and probably best overall since Sam Wyche’s 1988 Super Bowl team. Cincy would stay unbeaten for eight games and finished a Lewis-era best 12-4, doing so minus QB Andy Dalton (thumb injury) for the last three and-a-half games while ex-Alabama star A.J. McCarron led the team into the playoffs. Minus Dalton, however, there was another ominous feel, especially when Cincy surrendered a chance at home-field edge in the playoffs when blowing a 14-0 lead at Denver and losing in OT to the Broncos in the penultimate week. Which not only pushed the Bengals out of home-field edge but also nudged them into the wild card round instead of a first-round bye. And we all know what happened from there.

Still, many Bengals backers believe that 2015 would have been the year of the breakthrough had Dalton not injured his thumb in that December 13 loss to the Steelers. At the time “Big Red” was enjoying his best season and had a passer rating of 107.4, behind only Seattle’s Russell Wilson in league rankings. Dalton led three late game-winning drives and Cincy had its most-dynamic aerial game in years with WR A.J. Green (10 TD catches) and TE Tyler Eifert (13 TDs) providing big-time targets. Meanwhile, RBs Hill and Giovanni Bernard, who fill completely different roles, combined for more than 1500 YR and 13 TDs.

All of those key components return, as do five starters along the OL. There was some outflow at the receiver spots in free agency, though neither Marvin Jones nor Mohamed Sanu, both having left town, were consistent No. 2 wideouts opposite Green. Former Patriot Brandon LaFell, signed in the offseason, and Pitt rookie Tyler Boyd have been added to fill those gaps and might have a better chance diverting attention from the mercurial Green. The departure of o.c. Hue Jackson to Cleveland is not considered to be too disruptive as QB coach Ken Zampese was promoted to take Jackson’s place. Zampese, with Lewis for the past 13 seasons, is credited with having molded Dalton and Carson Palmer a few years earlier into competent NFL QBs.

Last year’s defense was also perhaps the best of the Lewis era and was one of the top ballhawking platoons in the league with its 21 interceptions. That was helped by improved pass rush pressure that resulted in 42 sacks thanks in part to keeping key DT Geno Atkins (11 sacks) healthy while DE Carlos Dunlap set a team record with 13.5 sacks. Still, there need to be some adjustments, especially in the early going, with the controversial LB Burfict on a 3-game suspension to start the season due to a dangerous hit on Steeler WR Antonio Brown in the playoffs, and key S Reggie Nelson, a leader of the secondary, having left to Oakland in free agency.

Nonetheless, plenty of pieces remain for d.c Paul Guenther, whose 4-3 looks are fueled by pass rushers and tight-covering DBs. While depth remains a bit of a concern on the DL, all starters do return, and the secondary should adjust for Nelson’s departure with the addition of first-round pick CB William Jackson III, a U of Houston product who fits the Bengals’ playmaker mode and should be able to replace at least some of Nelson’s 8 picks a season ago.

In a sense, Cincy’s 2015 mirrored most of the recent Lewis seasons in which the Bengals started quickly and lost momentum late. The slate is a bit more front-loaded this season, with the Jets, Pittsburgh, and Denver waiting out of the chute and road trips to Dallas and New England in mid-October. If Cincy begins slowly, we’ll see how it reacts. The team has frankly not dealt too well with late-season adversity in recent years. Though avoiding most of those early banana peels, and keeping Dalton healthy, sets Lewis up for another playoff run...and perhaps an end to the postseason win drought that has now extended beyond a quarter-century.

It’s worth noting that the Lewis Bengals were the AFC’s best pointspread performer last season (13-3-1), turning around a poor chalk mark (from 2-5-1 in 2014 to 8-3-1 in 2015) in the process. Lewis was also 5-0 in his latest successes as an underdog a year ago, upping his mark to a starry 14-3-2 in that role since 2013.

We suggest fans of the Pittsburgh Steelers (2015 SU 11-7; ATS 8-7-3; O/U 6-12) not fret too much at the latest Steelers preseason struggles that have seen them lose again in the first two exhibition outings of 2016. Indeed, HC Mike Tomlin has evolved into a modern-day Bum Phillips (who notoriously downplayed exhibition games), entering this August just 2-11 SU in preseason play the past three seasons. Losses to the Lions and Eagles have subsequently dropped the Men of Steel to 2-13 SU since 2013.

Keep in mind, however, that Tomlin has not been forcing the issue this summer with several veterans, in particular QB Ben Roethlisberger, who has been held out of the first two August games, as have a handful of other regulars. So, don’t worry, Steelers fans. After all, we are among those who recall the dark days of the franchise in the late ‘60s, when Pittsburgh won just 14 games between 1965-69 as it completed its residence at old Pitt Stadium. Those were times for Steelers fans to be depressed, not these days, especially after another playoff appearance a year ago.

Nonetheless, Pittsburgh has not exactly been storming the postseason lately, needing some unlikely help from the Bills (who beat the Jets) to qualify as a wild card on the final day of the 2015 regular season after seemingly blowing the playoff slot in an upset loss at shorthanded Baltimore the week before. The Steelers also narrowly qualified the previous 2014 season, only to be ousted by the same Ravens in the wild card round, after missing the postseason completely in 2013 & ‘13. So, while Tomlin has maintained the Steelers as a contender, they have also not been a serious title threat since their last Super Bowl visit in the 2010 season, winning just one playoff game since, and that courtesy of a Bengals meltdown in the wild card round a year ago.

The worry for this fall in Pittsburgh, as has been the case in recent seasons, is keeping Big Ben in one piece. Roethlisberger enters his 13th season this fall with plenty of tread wear on his tires, and his ability to avoid significant injury (which he could not do a year ago) is an ongoing concern. Especially since Pittsburgh did not address the backup QB situation in the offseason. Journeyman Bruce Gradkowski remains the first out of the bullpen, but his torn hamstring in early August means that Landry Jones, borderline serviceable at best and struggling mightily early in this preseason, is the backup until further notice. Michael Vick, who kept the ship afloat for a couple of games when Roethlisberger was out last season, was not re-signed.

Definitely, absences were a major storyline last year at Heinz Field. Tomlin was minus All-Pro C Maurkice Pouncey and PK Shane Suisham for the entire regular season after August injuries. Key RB Le’Veon Bell (ACL tears in both knees) missed 12 games, as did LT Kelvin Beachum (who has since departed as a FA). Rotheslisberger missed four games and parts of two others, and WR Martavis Bryant was sidelined for five games. Bell’s backup at RB, DeAngelo Williams, also missed two games. Getting everyone back healthy would obviously be a plus, but it is probably no more realistic to expect than keeping key elements off of the 2016 injured list. Or suspension, as RB Bell will miss the first three games (reduced from a four-game penalty) to begin the season after violating league substance abuse policies, and WR Bryant has been docked for the entire season. Now, LB James Harrison also has to worry about a league edict demanding explanations after the recent Al-Jazeera story implicated several NFL players for PED abuse. Stay tuned for further developments.

If all, or mostly all, hands are on deck, the Steelers could be lethal on the attack end, with Big Ben suggesting the team is capable of bettering 30 ppg. When available last season, Roethlisberger generated a career-best 328 yards per game, the best mark of his career. Wideout Antonio Brown has evolved into an unquestioned star after his league-best 136 catches a year ago (and an NFL-record 265 catches the last two seasons!), and ex-Oregon State dynamo Markus Wheaton looks ready to step into the No. 2 spot after catching 44 passes a year ago. One of the few position battles on offense is at TE, where offseason signee Ladarius Green remains on the PUP list, leaving second-year Jesse James and vet David Johnson temporarily competing for the job.

It will also be important to keep RB Bell on the field, as the Steelers are 22-13 SU in games he has started in the regular season, but 1-2 without him in the playoffs. With durability an issue for Bell, capable backup Williams (907 YR in 2015) remains an important cog. The young OL has matured into a competent forward wall under the tutelage of vet position coach Mike Munchak, and getting C Pouncey back in the fold should be a major plus.

The defense, though still rugged vs. the run (ranking 5th a year ago), is nonetheless a good distance from traditioonal “Steel Curtain” units of the past. A suspect secondary that contributed heavily to a poor 30th ranking in pass defense was addressed immediately in the draft with the first-round selection of CB Artie Burns from Miami (Fla.) and Maryland SS Sean Davis tabbed in the second round. The LB situation remains fluid with Harrison’s status up in the air as of mid-August, and recent first-round picks Jarvis Jones, Bud Dupree, and Ryan Shazier are going to be expected to finally live up to their collective hype.

As is always the case with a Tomlin defense, the Steelers are not afraid to blitz, and their LBs collected 25 sacks a year ago out of the 3-4 looks. Still, more push would be welcomed along the DL, and it is hoped that South Carolina State rookie DE Javon Hargrove, a third-round pick, can at least emerge as a capable situational pass rusher.

As always, the Steelers must be reckoned with as long as Big Ben can stay healthy. There is also no guarantee that Pittsburgh makes the playoffs after teetering on the edge of qualification the past four seasons, and if Baltimore recovers as we expect, the top of the North is going to get crowded once again. Remember, however, that three North teams qualified for the playoffs just two seasons ago, and a repeat would be no surprise. More than most teams, the injury wire might provide more important in Pittsburgh than other locales.

Some of the more interesting Steel trends in recent seasons have involved “totals” including a near decade-long “over” slant at Heinz Field, though Pittsburgh was only 4-4 “over” at home last season. “Unders” have been more prevalent lately, including 12-6 a year ago and 15-7 dating to late in the 2014 campaign.

While Clevelanders continue to bask in the glow of the end of their 52-year city title drought following the Cavs’ stirring win over the Warriors in the NBA Finals, and dream of a Daily Double with the Indians looming as one of the favorites to win the World Series, none are being bold enough to predict their football team is going to join the new championship trend. Instead, their Cleveland Browns (2015 SU 3-13, ATS 6-10, O/U 8-8 ) have become the NFL’s most-dysfunctional franchise under the disjointed ownership of Jimmy Haslam, now working on both his fourth head coach and general manager in the past five seasons.

This fall, Haslam, who has been less patient with his coaches than the late George Steinbrenner once was with his Yankee managers, turns to yet another HC (Hue Jackson) and GM (Sashi Brown, technically the VP of football operations). Most AFC observers believe the Brownies are a long way from a turnaround. There is plenty of work to do for Jackson and Browns after Cleveland's latest crash-and-burn in 2015, as the Brownies ranked in the bottom five in scoring, total "D" and rushing "D" and won just once after October 11.

Their first order of business in the offseason was to flesh out a QB situation that has featured a staggering 24 different starters since the franchise was restored in 1999. The disastrous Johnny Manziel experiment finally ended after last season, and rather than picking one of the top QBs in the draft, Cleveland gambled on FA signee Robert Griffin III, at this stage a reclamation project after his once-promising career jumped the rails in Washington. Moreover, there was considerable offseason personnel outflow, including veteran C Alex Mack bolting for the Falcons, creating a void on the OL that was also weakened by the departure of T Mitchell Schwartz. Hardly welcome news from an OL that allowed a league-high 123 QB hits last season and was spotty once more in pass protection during the first two preseason games. Though, to be fair, RG III looked improved in his second outing on August 18 vs. the Falcons, when he threw for a pair of TD passes, one a 50-yarder to ex-Ohio State QB Terrelle Pryor.

There is a bit of optimism, however, because of the presence of new HC Jackson, who impressed in his lone NFL stint as the boss in 2011 with the Raiders, nearly steering them into the playoffs before becoming the odd man out after Mark Davis took over ownership duties from dad Al, who passed away during that 2011 season. Along with new GM Sashi Brown, Cleveland went into what looked like full rebuild mode in the offseason, dealing away the second pick in the draft to the Eagles for a stockpile of picks that would grow to 14, suggesting a ground-up rebuild was ready to commence. A football version of Moneyball, perhaps, especially with former Billy Beane disciple Paul DePodesta now having switched sports and taking a position in the Cleveland front office.

Then, with repairs needed almost everywhere throughout the roster, the Brownies went out and selected speedy Baylor WR Corey Coleman (who had a history of drops in college) with their first pick, the sort of boutique selection usually reserved for a contender. A Billy Beane-like stroke of genius, or just another Cleveland draft-day mistake?

Much of any potential upgrade will not depend upon Coleman but rather how much Jackson can extract from RG III, whose career careened off course in Washington due to various factors, injuries among them. Already with a couple of serious knee problems in the past, Griffin does not have the look of the playmaker he was earlier in his career, as the wheels that consistently got him out of trouble in college at Baylor and as a rookie with the Skins have been too damaged to function in the same manner the past couple of years. Realistically, given RG II’s history of injuries, expecting him to contribute for a full season seems a bit folly, so the decision (at least thru mid-August) to hold on to serviceable Josh McCown, who performed admirably in 2015 but whose record as a starter is just 2-17 over the past two seasons, seems prudent.

Jackson is also crossing his fingers that troubled WR Josh Gordon, a Griffin teammate from Baylor now reinstated after a one-year suspension, stays out of trouble and contributes. Gordon, recently activated from the PUP list, is still looking at a 4-game suspension to start the season, but any return to past form would be a huge plus, especially if fellow WR Coleman hits the ground running as “Air Baylor” hopefully gets lift-off in the AFC North.

The most-reliable receiving target, however, is likely to remain underrated TE Gary Barnidge (team-best 79 catches and 9 TDs a year ago), perhaps the Browns' premier skill-position component especially after last year’s top wideout Travis Benjamin left in free agency. The brain trust surprisingly did not address the RB spot in free agency or the draft, suggesting lots of confidence in ex-Georgia and Alabama State Isaiah Crowell (709 YR LY) and former Miami Hurricane Duke Johnson. Since the Browns didn’t do anything particularly well last season, it would be hard for the offense to be much worse.

The same can be said of the defense that might not necessarily miss four of the top six tacklers who skee-daddled out of Cleveland after last season. It ought to help this fall that All-Pro CB Joe Haden should be good to go after playing in only five games a year ago because of a thumb injury and two concussions. Haden’s status, however, did little to explain a 30th-ranked run defense that hopes adding LB Demario Davis (via the Jets) can provide some upgrade.

The healthy return of Haden comes with potential issues, however, as Tramon Williams on the opposite side figures to get picked on often as foes avoid throwing Haden’s direction when possible.

The pass rush was identified by the front office as a key area of need and addressed a couple of times in the early rounds of the draft, with Oklahoma State DE Emmanauel Oghah and Penn State DE Carl Nassib picked in the second and third rounds, respectively. Regardless, veteran d.c. Ray Horton has his work cut out as he looks for pieces to fit into his 3-4 looks, though we suspect the Cleveland defense will be a work in progress, as some expected waiver wire additions likely give the platoon a different look in November than it will have in September.

Unfortunately for Cleveland, the North has been a bad place to be in recent seasons, with little forgiveness within the division for any rebuilding projects. Which has made a breakthrough very elusive in Cleveland for the past decade. A ninth straight losing season looks to be a very good bet by the shores of Lake Erie. Hopefully for Hue Jackson and Sashi Brown, it doesn’t get bad enough for owner Jimmy Haslam to consider another round of replacements. If ever a franchise needed a bit of stability, it's the Brownies.

AFC South Preview
By Bruce Marshall
VegasInsider.com

Following is our preview of the AFC South, with teams as always presented in order of predicted finish.

Straight-up, pointspread, and "over/under" records for 2015 are included...

Chalk another up to super-agent Jimmy Sexton, whose stable of clients includes a near-quorum on SEC coaches. Plus several players, including QB Brock Osweiler, the key offseason addition for the Houston Texans (2015 SU 9-8, ATS 9-8, O/U 8-8-1), who would surprisingly steal the AFC South last year despite a slow 2-5 break from the gate and starting four different QBs during the wild ride of 2015.

That, however, was before the offseason, when Osweiler was set to cash in on his stint as starting QB in Denver when Peyton Manning was sidelined for much of November and all of December. While most expected Osweiler to re-sign with the Super Bowl champion Broncos, Sexton was able to set the market price at a number that made John Elway blink. Not too rich, however, for Texans GM Rick Smith, who decided to bite on the 4 years at $72 million that Sexton was asking.

Now, the question is whether Houston, like many of those mega-rich owners at the annual Keeneland Yearling Sale, has greatly overpaid, not for a young colt but rather on a QB with only seven NFL starts under his belt. Still, whatever happens with Osweiler and the Texans, the winner in this deal was Sexton, whose status and reputation at the top of his profession was further burnished by the Osweiler negotiation.

While HC Bill O’Brien was able to slog through 2015 with Brian Hoyer, Ryan Mallett, T.J. Yates, and Brandon Weeden all starting games at QB, it was something neither O’Brien nor GM Smith wanted to endure again, especially after the Texans looked woefully deficient on offense with Hoyer (now with the Bears) at QB in a 30-0 Wild Card round loss to the Chiefs. So, rather than look to the draft for a longer-term answer at QB as did teams like the Rams and Eagles, the Texans opted for something pre-cooked in free-agency, where Osweiler was the biggest fish in a rather shallow offseason QB pond.

Note, however, that Osweiler was still a work in progress in Denver, and will prove an ongoing assignment for O’Brien, regarded as a shrewd QB tutor. But Osweiler, who passed for 1967 yards and 10 TDs in his seven starts, is hardly the only new face on the Houston roster. Indeed, many featured performers could have a different look, as besides Osweiler, RB Lamar Miller was lured from Miami in free agency and Notre Dame WR Will Fuller was Houston’s first-round pick in the draft.

Miller, on the Texans’ radar after running roughshod thru them with 185 YR, including an 85-yard TD run, in Miami’s 44-26 romp last October 25 (in retrospect the low-point of the Houston season), hopefully provides more stability and an upgrade at the RB spot that had to deal with Arian Foster’s many injuries in recent years. Miller’s speed will provide a nice complement to the power of ex-North Carolina Alfred Blue (698 YR LY) in what looks to be a very a capable 1-2 combo. Osweiler also has plenty of receiving targets, too, as the rookie Fuller looks to contribute as a secondary option opposite Pro Bowl WR DeAndre Hopkins, who caught a staggering 111 passes last season and might snag even more this fall if Fuller can draw some attention on the other side. Hopkins should also be a happy camper after inking an expensive new contract in the offseason.

O’Brien’s major concern at the moment is an OL that has run through a rash of injuries in preseason. Three projected starters (rookie C Nick Martin, a 2nd-round pick from Notre Dame, plus OTs Duane Brown and versatile Derek Newton, who can line up at every spot on the line except center) were all sidelined into late August. Martin’s high ankle sprain was considered the most serious injury and might require surgery. Along with the FA departures of G Brandon Brooks (to the Eagles) and C Ben Jones (to the Titans), the OL looms as O’Brien’s biggest worry entering the late stages of preseason.

Even with the various QBs and offensive turmoil last season, the Texans were able to get to the playoffs mostly because of their third-ranked defense, with vet coordinator Romeo Crennel adroitly moving players around the field as if they were pieces on a chess board. As usual, DE J.J. Watt, even battling thru groin, hand, and back injuries, was the headliner, but Houston’s pass rush had more bite thanks to long-awaited emergence of OLB Whitney Mercilus, who led the college ranks in sacks while at Illinois in 2011 and combined with Watt for 29 1/2 QB take-downs last season.

Practically everyone save DE Jared Crick (who signed with Denver) returns on the platoon that was able to benefit greatly from a healthy ILB Brian Cushing, who played his first full season in five years and contributed 110 tackles. Now, if former first overall draft pick Jadeveon Clowney can ever shake his own injury demons, he could be the force many once envisioned of him at OLB, though he’s running out of time to prove his durability. Meanwhile, second-year Mississippi State product Bernardrick McKinney appears on his way to becoming a destroyer at ILB. Thick NT Vince Wilfork, a key FA signing last year from the Patriots, might be slowing down and is only a 2-down player at this stage of his career, but provides needed leadership. The pass defense ranked 3rd in the league a year ago and still features CBs Johnathon Joseph and Kareem Jackson, now entering their sixth season together.

A situation to watch involves Watt, who was still recovering from offseason back surgery in August and was not expected to play in the preseason, hoping to be ready for the regular-season opener on Sept. 11 vs. the Bears. Also note that O’Brien fired special teams coach Bob Ligashesky after spotty coverage on his units last season and allowing a long kick return TD by the Chiefs in the playoff loss. To replace Ligashesky, O’Brien has hired former Pro Bowl special teams ace Larry Izzo, which should at least keep the kicking game on its toes.

O’Brien, who has proven a shrewd hire by owner Bob McNair, looks to have more to work with than either of his first two editions, which both finished 9-7. With his defense likely the best platoon in the division, Houston appears a good bet to repeat in the AFC South, especially if Osweiler proves the upgrade expected at QB. Also strongly suggest taking a look at “over” the posted season-win total of 8.5.

Last December, lots of NFL insiders were giving Chuck Pagano about as much chance to remain as head coach of the Indianapolis Colts (2015 SU 8-8; ATS 8-8; O/U 8-8 ) as were Usain Bolt’s competitors in the recent 200 meters race at the Rio Olympics.

But when the dust finally settled on a topsy-turvy campaign, and the Colts had fought back to .500, even as they finished the season with Josh Freeman and Ryan Lindley at QB, Pagano was rewarded with a new contract from unpredictable owner Jim Irsay. Which appeared unlikely late last season when rumors surfaced of deep rifts between Pagano and GM Ryan Grigson, and Irsay's reported failed courtship of Saints HC Sean Payton. Which makes Pagano (who had rejected a series of one-year contracts prior to 2015) seem like an NFL version of LSU's Les Miles heading into 2016.

Indeed, another bumpy ride like last season, which beyond the injuries and in-fighting would also include dismissing o.c. Pep Hamilton and his predictable play-calling at midseason, might be too much for even Bill or Hillary Clinton to survive, much less Pagano, contract extension or not.

Of course, just getting QB Andrew Luck back from the lacerated kidney that KO’d him last year at midseason would be a plus, though Luck endured an erratic term (partly due to other nagging hurts) before his 2015-ending injury. Ex-Browns HC Rob Chudzinski, promoted to o.c. midway last season after the dismissal of Hamilton, should certainly benefit from a healthy Luck.

Considering that Luck, plus backup QBs Matt Hasselbeck and Charlie Whitehurst, were all KO'd last fall, better protection is necessary, so upgrades along the OL (which could also spark a 29th-ranked infantry) were a priority in the draft for GM Grigson, who made Alabama C Ryan Kelly the first-round Indy pick. The third-round pick, massive Texas Tech OT La’Raven Clark, might also find his way into the lineup sometime this fall, and fifth round pick OT Joe Haeg from North Dakota State and seventh-round C Austin Blythe from Iowa are expected to make the roster as well. All part of adjustments made in the new offense installed by Chudzinski, who was forced to make do with a hybrid system thanks to all of the injuries after taking over from Hamilton early last November. New OL coach Joe Philbin, most recently the Dolphins' HC, will help implement the altered blocking schemes and tweaks in the passing game (including more underneath throws to let the speedy WRs have a chance to run with the ball), all part of the updated package that Chudzinski, who served as the HC of the Browns in 2013, brings to the table.

Among other issues last season were the aforementioned ground game that went nowhere even with FA addition Frank Gore, who was a mild disappointment (only 6 TDs) as the only credible overland threat. Gore remains the featured back but it is hoped offseason additions Robert Turbin and Jordan Todman, who have been fairly productive in early preseason work, can provide an extra spark.

Luck’s various injuries and the eventual merry-go-round at QB wreaked havoc with the passing game last fall, especially for TE Dwayne Allen, a red-zone force with 8 TD catches in 2014 but only one score a year ago. With Luck’s Stanford friend Coby Fleener off to New Orleans, Allen (who has missed 21 games the past four seasons due to injury) now has a shot to become the featured TE. Though Luck’s main targets likely remain explosive T.Y. Hilton, a likely beneficiary of the new Chudzkinski offense and a good bet to improve upon his 5 TDs last season, and the blossoming Donte Moncrief, the Ole Miss product who doubled his receptions (32 to 64) from his first to his second season.

Meanwhile, in case Luck goes down again, serviceable Scott Tolzien was signed as the backup and the successor to the veteran Hasselbeck, who retired.

Pagano’s defense also had injury issues a year ago, which had something to do with falling to a 26th overall ranking. Coordinator Greg Manusky was replaced by Ted Manchino, familiar to Pagano from the days both were on John Harbaugh’s staff in Baltimore. With Pagano’s blessing, Manchino is going to preach the old Ravens-style attack-attack-attack philosophy, and will likely do so out of the 3-4 looks utilized by Manusky but able to switch to 4-3 tendencies with various positional flexibility with most of his linemen. One of those, 4th-round pick Hassan Ridgeway from Texas, could play a variety of roles and also provide another impact element, which the “D” needs as vet LB Robert Mathis (at least 7 sacks in his last 11 full seasons, which does not count 2014) is the only established pass-rush force.

Speaking of Mathis, he’s still ticking at age 35, but the LB corps, while still relatively productive a year ago, is more than a bit long in the tooth, with four of the top five older than 30 (Mike Adams-35, Trent Cole-33, D’Qwell Jackson-32, plus Mathis), and leading tackler ILB Jerrell Freeman having moved to the Bears. There are some openings in the secondary after the departures of S Dwight Lowery & CB Greg Toler, though Indy does return Pro Bowlers at one corner (Vontae Davis) and strong safety (Mike Adams). Former Charger Patrick Robinson was added to fortify one corner spot, and 2nd-round pick T.J. Green, a free safety from Clemson, had already moved into the starting lineup.

Note, however, that a spate of preseason injuries at CB, including Robinson (groin) and Davis (ankle, could miss early regular-season action), prompted the emergency recent signing of ex-Jet CB Antonio Cromartie, a four-time Pro Bowler.

If there is an unquestioned strength on the team, it is the kicking game, where ageless PK Adam Vinatieri was as good as ever last season when connecting on 25 of 27 FG attempts, while P Pat McAfee remains state-of-the-art, with 28 punts downed inside of the opponent’s 20-yard line, and 67 of his 74 kickoffs good for touchbacks.

There are still some issues we see on the roster, including lack of balance on offense due to an iffy infantry diversion, and age creeping up on key members of the defense. Plus the fact that much looked wrong with Luck last season even before he was sat down for good due to the various injuries. A few have conjectured that Luck sometimes plays the game at such a high-tech speed that it is often works to his detriment, but if healthy should more resemble his 2014 form. Then there is HC Pagano, who is not entering 2016 on the firmest of footing. If the Colts miss the playoffs again, and don’t have an injury excuse as a year ago, the rumor mill is going to be whirring once more at Lucas Oil Stadium in December.

Technicians will note that Indy was 8-8 across the board last season...straight up, vs. the spread (including 4-4 both home and away), and over/under. No trendlines there!

What is the most important thing we have learned about the Jacksonville Jaguars (2015 SU 5-11; ATS 7-9; O/U 10-6) from the first two preseason games? Well, if it’s not that the team is in big trouble if something happens to QB Blake Bortles, you’ve got quite a scoop.

To wit: In the Jags’ first two exhibitions, Bortles has played approximately 2 ½ quarters. And with him on the field, Jacksonville has outscored the Jets and Bucs by a combined 27-7. But in the 5 ½ quarters in which Bortles was not in the games, the Jags have been pounded by a combined 44-7 count. And those 7 points for J’ville were not scored by the offense, rather by the defense on an interception return. Safe to say, then, that backup QBs Chad Henne and Arkansas rookie Brandon Allen are not going to get their names called in many upcoming fantasy drafts.

So, while it can be argued, rightly so, that preseason results usually don’t mean anything, in some cases they do. And in the Jags’ case, they confirm that Bortles is obviously their strength...and the QB position is also the team’s Achilles heel should anything happen to the former UCF star.

On the plus side, barring injury (heaven forbid!), Bortles figure to be in the games all of the time once the regular season begins. Which is good news for fourth-year HC Gus Bradley, now feeling real heat from owner Shad Khan to deliver some positive results after three years of rebuilding. With only twelve wins since 2013, however, Bradley has used up all of his mulligans with the mustachioed owner, who has been known to be impatient with his sports franchises, as he was a few years ago with his English soccer side Fulham, which went through three different managers in Khan’s first year as the supremo. The win-now edict also applies to GM David Caldwell, like Bradley in his fourth year on the job.

While the offense figures to be fine as long as Bortles, and not Henne or the rookie Allen, takes the snaps, the fates of Bradley and Caldwell likely rest upon improvement from a defense that finished far up the track in most relevant stat categories last season, including the all-important points allowed, when only the Saints conceded more than the whopping 448 points scored by J’ville opponents. The Jags also ranked 31st in third-down defense; ranking 31st in points allowed and third-down conversions is not a combination that suggests a playoff run.

Thus, GM Caldwell’s assignment in the offseason was rather well-defined as he looked long and far for upgrades to his defense. The Jags, who have whiffed on some of their free agent signees in recent years, would no surprise invest more heavily in the offseason on the stop unit, though did have enough salary room to sign OT Kelvin Beachum from the Steelers and RB Chris Ivory from the Jets. The major FA prize was ex-Broncos DT Malik Jackson, who scored the first TD in Super Bowl 50, but could not be protected by Denver, which franchised LB Von Miller instead (before inking Miller to a long-term deal in the summer). After already addressing the DL (Jackson) and secondary (ex-Giant CB Prince Amukamara) in free agency, Caldwell continued the “D” theme at the draft, going defense with his first five picks, including potential immediate impact performers Florida State CB Jalen Ramsey with the number five overall pick and UCLA LB Myles Jack, who projected high in the first round prior to a knee injury last season, early in the second round. Along with 2015 top pick DE Dante Fowler, Jr., who didn’t play at all last season due to an ACL tear, there is certainly more blue-chip talent at the disposal of new d.c. Tom Wash, promoted from DL coach after Bob Babich was relieved of duties following last year’s defensive mess.

Health, however, is going to be a key for the platoon, with the returns of Fowler and Jack from last year’s knee injuries bearing scrutiny. Top pick Ramsey also tore a meniscus in offseason work and was held out of early preseason action, though is expected to be ready in September. Ex-Auburn DT Sen’Derrick Marks also missed most of last season with a torn triceps. Also, note that CB Aaron Colvin will miss the first four games due to suspension, so it remains to be seen if and when Wash will have all hands on deck in the fall.

Several of those mentioned are potential building blocks for the defense, as are key holdovers such as LBs Paul Posluszny and Telvin Smith and SS Jonathan Cyprien, who combined for over 350 tackles last season. By adding DT Jackson and CB Amukamara, the Jags have what looks like the makings of a competent stop unit in which over half of the starters could be free agent signees, rookies, or near-rookies (in the case of Fowler).

Still, a lot of heavy lifting is expected to be done by the offense, in particular the promising Bortles, whose 35 TD passes last fall ranked behind only Tom Brady. Entering his third season, Bortles appears on the verge of achieving elite-level status if he can cut down on his mistakes, especially the interceptions (35 over his first two seasons, 18 of those a year ago).

The weaponry, especially the receiving corps, is playoff-quality. Wideouts Allen Robinson and Allen Burns, like Bortles entering their third years, combined for 144 receptions and 24 TDs a year ago. Another third-year target, ex-Southern Cal Marquis Lee, is the best deep threat on the roster if he can stay healthy, which has been tough the past two seasons when he missed a combined nine games. Ex-Bronco Julius Thomas and vet Marcedes Lewis provide one of the best TE combos in the AFC.

Meanwhile, the Jags added last year’s top rusher in the AFC when inking ex-Jet Ivory, who motored for 1070 YR in 2015, and provides the other half of what should be a potent 1-2 combo with second-year ex-Bama T.J. Yeldon (740 YR as a rookie in 2015). Like the rest of the offense, the line is also maturing, but must accelerate its progress after allowing 51 sacks a year ago. The signing of ex-Steeler LT Beachum was the only significant offseason addition along the OL, though Beachum is still working his way back from ACL surgery with the hope of being available for the opener vs. the Packers.

Add it up, and the Jags rate as a chic darkhorse in the AFC. If the pieces fit together a playoff run is not out of the question. But if J’ville flounders again, don’t be surprised if some coach other than Gus Bradley is pulling the strings in 2017.

There has not been much to cheer about for several seasons with the Tennessee Titans (2015 SU 3-13; ATS 6-10; U/U 10-6). Also known as AARP's favorite team, with HC Mike Mularkey's coaching staff mostly eligible to begin receiving Social Security benefits before the end of the year.

Just one of several curiosities of the Titans, whose control has bounced between various heirs of Bud Adams since the franchise patriarch passed away in 2013, and now prompting the NFL to subtly seek new leadership in Nashville. Which in the near future could possibly include Peyton Manning as part of a new ownership group. Stay tuned for further developments.

Meanwhile, new GM Jon Robinson (with front office experience in New England and Tampa Bay) seems to be acting responsibly and engineered quite a deal before the draft, trading away the top pick to the Rams, flip-flopping with L.A. in the first round and adding a haul of picks in later rounds plus the Rams’ top choice in 2017. The Titans, who were not desperate for a QB (as were the Rams) after picking Oregon Heisman winner Marcus Mariota with the top pick in 2015, thus seemed to do a good bit of business, with four of the top 45 picks in the 2016 draft (more on some of those selections in a moment).

Well before the draft, the appointment of Kevin Costner look-alike Mularkey as head coach raised a few eyebrows and brought into focus some of the questions the league brass has about the current ownership in Music City. Mularkey took over as the interim HC for the dismissed Ken Whisenhunt (not even given 1 ½ years on the job) just prior to the midway point of last season and promptly qualified for breakfast on the house at the famous local Pancake Pantry when upsetting the Saints in his first game before dropping 7 of 8 to close the season, hardly the sort of audition that should have qualified for consideration to take the job on a full-time basis. Especially since Mularkey, given little chance by most AFC observers, has seemed the quintessential career assistant, having developed a good reputation as an offensive coach but failing in two previous head-coaching assignments with the Bills and Jags. The Adams heirs, however, were apparently fond of the personable Mularkey and decided that the third time might be the charm and that he should remain in charge after a brief but intriguing courtship of Chip Kelly, who was the coach at Oregon when Mariota began his college career. (Kelly, dismissed late last season by the Eagles, would land with the 49ers shortly thereafter.)

Credit Mularkey, however, for apparently putting in motion what appears to be a throwback element after last year’s impotent strike (out?) force ranked a lowly 30trh in total offense, barely gaining 300 yards per game. But if early preseason action is any indicator, Mularkey appears to have adopted a ground-and-pound philosophy on the attack end featuring a “Thunder and Thunder” new backfield of ex-Cowboy and Eagle DeMarco Murray (acquired via offseason trade with Philly) and Bama Heisman winner Derrick Henry, who might end up being quite a steal after being taken with Tennessee’s third pick in the second round, and 45th overall. The new backs promptly spearheaded a 288-yard rushing onslaught in the preseason opener vs. the Chargers, with Murray providing the highlight-reel play of the night with a 71-yard TD run. Things weren’t quite as productive in the subsequent 26-16 loss to the Panthers but the new blueprint is no secret, as the Titans are going to be hellbent on establishing the run in the fall.

While Mularkey seems to have the runners to play smashmouth, we’re not sure he has the OL. Though GM Robinson, in other shrewd offseason moves, sought to upgrade the forward wall by signing FA C Ben Jones from the Texans and taking Michigan State OT Jack Conklin, who has already claimed the starting RT position, with the first-round pick in the draft at the Rams’ former 15 spot. Still, there is a long way to go for a line that might have been the NFL’s worst a season ago, when among other things it could not protect QBs Mariota or Zack Mettenberger (who has since moved to San Diego) surrendering a whopping 54 sacks. (Should Mariota go down again as he did for a time last fall, vet Matt Cassel was signed as an upgrade for the backup QB role.)

As for Mariota, he flashed plenty of upside during his first season but remains a work in progress after throwing 19 TDP and 10 picks as a rookie. It is hoped that a modest receiving corps received a boost by signing FA WR Rishard Mathhews (43 catches LY) from the Dolphins, though the staff has given up on once-touted Dorial Green-Beckham, traded to the Eagles in August. Underrated TE Delanie Walker, with 94 catches LY, remains the most reliable target.

The defense is now the full responsibility of sage vet coordinator Dick LeBeau, who gets to call all of the shots this fall after sharing the stage with Ray Horton, who moved to Cleveland as the d.c. for Hue Jackson’s new staff. The first order of business in the offseason was overhauling a secondary which picked off only 11 passes a year ago. A couple of CBs with past LeBeau connections, Antwon Blake and Brice McCain, were added in free agency to compete with holdovers Jason McCourty, who missed all but four games with a groin injury last year, and Perrish Cox, who has been nursing a sprained ankle in August. Ex-Card Rashad Johsnon was signed in free agency as a short-term fix at FS after long-time S Michael Griffin was released.

LeBeau figures to be full-steam ahead with his patented zone blitzes that should be a boon for a LB crew featuring pass-rush specialists Brian Orakpo and Derrick Morgan from the edge. ILBs Avery Williamson and Wesley Woodyard led the team in tackles last season. LeBeau also got plenty of mileage in his 3-4 looks a year ago by moving productive Jurell Casey to a DE spot and hopes that third-round pick NT Austin Jackson from Penn State can emerge an effective run clogger in the middle.

While the Mularkey experiment with an old-style offense intrigues, this smashmouth approach might prove no more effective than the Wing-T that Marv Levy briefly utilized in the late ‘70s with the Chiefs. The NFL is even more of a QB league than it was four decades ago, and we are not sure how far the Titans can advance unless Mariota and the passing game function at modern levels. For the moment, we remain unconvinced, and while Tennessee might be more interesting to watch than a year ago, the playoff drought that extends back to the Jeff Fisher era in 2008 will likely continue for at last another year in Nashville.

Spread-wise, note that the Titans have offered little spread value the past few years, with a lowly 9-27-1 mark vs. the number since late in the 2013 season (Mularkey was only 2-7 vs. the line in his nine games last season).