NFL and College Football Newletters
NFL Pre Season Over / Unders
By Victor King
Playbook.com
Hello Over / Under players! For Pro Football fans, the 6-month hibernation period is over. Like we say in the intro to the Marc Lawrence AGAINST THE SPREAD podcast (available each week at Playbook.com), 'Let's Get It On'!
My bankroll and I have fond memories of the 2016 season. Especially in the post-season for our King Creole football service. It started on November 26th with our 10* College Football GAME of the YEAR on OVER 59 points in the USC / NOTRE DAME game. Final score was 45-27 (winner by +13 points). Then, it was our turn in the Pros. On December 18th, our NFL 10* GOY was on OVER 51 points in the SF 49ERS / ATL FALCONS game (winner). We followed that up with our 5* College Bowl GOY on OVER 59.5 points in the January 2nd Rose Bowl between PENN STATE and USC. If you watched that one, you remember that it indeed was a SHOOTOUT with USC winning by a score of 52 to 49 (winner by +41.5 points). We wrapped up the post-season party with our NFL 5* Playoff GOY winner on OVER 51 points in the FALCONS / SEAHAWKS game (another winner). So to recap last season in Football: Four Best Bet Games of the Year, ranked 5* or 10* each and Four Winners.
Before we start dissecting the 2017 NFL pre-season, a quick mention of the PLAYBOOK Totals Tipsheet is in order. As most sharp Totals players are already aware, the Playbook Totals Tipsheet is the ONLY weekly publication in America that is devoted to Pro Football Over / Under wagering exclusively. I created it back in 2007 and this season will be the 11th year. It's a must-have publication if you like wagering on Over / Unders. And it's the perfect companion newsletter to our existing publications (PLAYBOOK and MIDWEEK ALERT). In the last two seasons, the Totals Tipsheet finished a combined 20 games over .500 in O/U Best Bets with a record of 61-41 ATS. That's a 60% winning percentage that Speedee, Chi-Chi, Monkey (my dogs) and I are extremely proud of. We're looking forward to another profitable year in 2017, and we encourage all O/U players to join us on the 'Totals Train'!
In our 2017 Playbook Newsletter #1 preview article, we'll take a look at NFL pre-season Over / Unders. We start with the best Home and Road OVER + UNDER teams in the last few seasons. After that, we take a look at individual team OU tendencies broken down by Game Number. We then conclude with some of the more noticeable OU patterns in regards to pre-season series histories. I think we got it all 'covered'...
1) BEST Home and Road OVER and UNDER teams
Best Home 'OVER' teams As long as they keep producing consistent HIGH-scoring results at Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum, the OAKLAND RAIDERS will keep their #1 ranking in terms of OVERS. In the last eight seasons, Oakland has gone 13-2-1 O/U in their home games (87% Over). Average OU line: 38.0. Average total points: 45.8. That means the average Raider home game has gone OVER by +7.8 points per game (more than a full TD) during this eight-year period. When the OU line has been 36 or more points, these Raider 'homies' have seen 52 pts, 52 pts, 51 pts, 60 pts, 51 pts, 60 pts, 53 pts, 72 pts, 53 pts, 41 pts and 44 pts. And the OVER has gone a PERFECT 10-0-1 in these games. That pre-season average of 53.5 ppg is even higher than the regular season!
Right behind the Raiders in the #2 spot is the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES. Philly home games have gone 14-6 O/U over the last nine seasons. That's a strong percentage of 70%. But the Eagles are not just a strong OVER team at home. They're a strong OVER team PERIOD. In fact, since the 2007 season, the Eagles have gone 29-11-1 O/U in ALL of their pre-season games. It doesn't matter whether they're at home (14-6 O/U) OR on the road (15-5-1 O/U).
Another team worthy of mention in terms of home OVERS is the GREEN BAY PACKERS. Dating all the way back to the 2008 preseason, Packer home games have gone 12-6 O/U (67% Over). But the best time to consider a Packer home OVER is when they are installed as 'chalk'. When they are catching points at home, you may want to pass. Green Bay has gone 12-3 O/U in the last 11 seasons as a home FAVORITES (80% Over) but only 3-6 O/U in the last 11 seasons as home UNDERDOGS.
Honorable mention: ARIZONA: 4-0 O/U last 2 seasons at home (47.5 ppg) LA RAMS: 3-0 O/U last 3 home games (44.7) TENNESSEE: 3-0-1 O/U last 2 seasons at home (40.3) ATLANTA, BALTIMORE, BUFFALO, DALLAS, SEATLE 3-1 O/U L4 home games.
Best Home 'UNDER' teams There are four NFL teams that stand out as the leagues most 'UNDER'-whelming when playing at home. #1 on the list is the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS. In the last seven seasons, San Francisco's home games have gone 2-11-1 O/U. That's an UNDER percentage of 85%. Average OU line for these games: 37.8. Average combined points: 30.2. That's more than a FULL TD 'Under the Total' (-7.6 points per game). So it was no surprise that BOTH of last year's pre-season home games went 0-2 O/U
Right on the heels of the Niners in the #2 UNDER spot is the MIAMI DOLPHINS. They've been a very consistent team when it comes to O/U results at Hard Rock Stadium (LOVE that new name change!). Since the 2008 season, Miami home games have gone 3-13-1 O/U which comes out to 81% Unders. They're the only other team in the league (besides San Fran) to go UNDER by more than a TD per game (avg line: 37.5 / avg total pts: 30.3).
If you're looking for a short-term consistent UNDER team at home, then look no further than the TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS. They have not gone OVER in a home game since 2013. In the last three seasons, NFL games at Raymond James Stadium have gone 0-5-1 O/U with a low average of 36.3 points per game. If however, you are looking for a more long-term consistent UNDER team at home, then consider 'Going LOW' with the WASHINGTON REDSKINS. In the last 15 years (since 2002!), Washington home games have gone 9-21 O/U (70% Under).
Honorable mention: NY JETS: 0-3 O/U last 3 home games (37.7) LA Chargers: 1-5 O/U at home last 3 years (*But remember, those games were at Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego) NEW ORLEANS: 1-4 O/U last 5 home games (40.6) NY GIANTS: 3-8 O/U last 11 home games (35.7).
Best Road 'OVER' teams We already mentioned this team in the home OVER section. And here they are again: The PHILADELPHIA EAGLES. That's right. Very high-scoring results for the Eagles at home AND on the road. In the last 15 seasons, Philadelphia has gone 20-8-1 O/U when playing the role of the visitor. That's an OVER percentage of 71%. And that's even higher than their home games! If you decide to play OVER in every single Eagles exhibition game, you're not gonna get an argument from me. You're not going to win every game but you'll probably turn an 'OVER'-all profit (pun intended)!
Next up, we take a look at three NFL teams that have delivered an OVER percentage of 75% or more in the last six seasons when playing on the road. The first one is the NEW YORK JETS. Since 2012, New York road games have gone 7-2 O/U (78% Overs). Right behind the Jets in terms of percentages is the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS. In the last six years, the Chiefs have gone 10-3 O/U (77% Over) in their road games. On a more recent note, in the last 3 years, Kansas City has gone 6-1 O/U with an average of 43.2 combined points per game. That's a higher point-per-game average than the regular season! Another team that's trending HIGH as of late is the ARIZONA CARDINALS. In the last six seasons, Arizona road games have gone 9-3 O/U for an OVER percentage of 75%. That includes 3-1 O/U in the last two years. And since we're on Arizona OVERS here's something to digest in regards to the REGULAR SEASON: Since December of the 2015 season (2 years ago), the last TEN Cardinals' ROAD games have gone a PERFECT 10-0 O/U with a average combined points of 55.1!
Honorable mention: The MIAMI DOLPHINS might be a great home UNDER team in the NFL 'X' season, but they've gone a PERFECT 4-0 O/U on the pre-season ROAD in the last 2 years (47.5) CAROLINA: 3-1 O/U last 2 years on the road (40.2) NEW ORLEANS: 6-2 O/U last 4 years on the road (46.9) BALTIMORE: 7-3 O/U last 5 years on the road (but went 0-2 O/U LAST year).
Best Road 'UNDER' teams - We start our fourth query into the Playbook NFL pre-season database with the best road UNDER teams. First, we'll look at three teams that have been exhibiting low-scoring tendencies in the short-term (last 4-5 seasons). We begin with the JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS. In the last four seasons, the Jaguars have almost been a PERFECT road UNDER team with a record of 1-7 O/U. Average OU line: 40.2 Average combined points: 33.6 (-6.6 points per game). Last season, BOTH of Jacksonville's road games went UNDER (by -8 and -5.5 pts respectively). Let's not forget the CLEVELAND BROWNS either. In that same time frame (last 4 years), Cleveland road games have gone 1-6-1 O/U (85% Under the Total). Average points: just 34.0. In fact, let's lets the database spit it all out when it comes to my 'homeboys' (yes, I'm originally from Cleveland): The Browns have gone 3-11-1 O/U in ALL of their last 15 pre-season games since 2013 including a PERFECT 0-7-1 O/U in the last two years! Our third short-term road UNDER team is the GREEN BAY PACKERS. Last year, both of Green Bay's road games went Under the Total (31 pts vs San Fran / 24 pts vs Kansas City). Since the 2012 season, the Packers have gone 80% UNDER (2-8 O/U) when playing the role of the visitor in the pre-season. The average Green Bay game has gone UNDER by -6.7 points per game almost a FULL touchdown.
Our query of strong road UNDER teams concludes with the long-term. Since 1998 (18 seasons), the BUFFALO BILLS have gone 13-26 O/U when playing on the road (67% Under). In the last 12 seasons (since 2005), the numbers have been even tighter for the Bills with a 7-17 O/U record (71% Under) on the road. Not only that, but EACH of Buffalo's last FIVE road games (since 2014) in the pre-season have gone UNDER (0-5 O/U). It looks like we will be thinking 'Under FIRST' when the Bills hit the road on August 17th and August 26th.
Honorable mention: NY GIANTS: 0-4 O/U last 2 years on the road (29.3) NEW ENGLAND: 1-5 O/U last 3 years on the road (33.8 ) ATLANTA and DETROIT: 1-4 O/U last 5 road games (37.6 and 39.9 respectively) HOUSTON: 2-6 O/U last 4 years on the road (36.7).
2) PRE-SEASON Week-by-Week OU TEAM TENDENCIES
Week One (OU record and average PPG)
Carolina 5-0 O/U (41.6) New Orleans 3-0 O/U (54.3) LA Rams 8-1 O/U (42.0) Indianapolis 6-1 O/U (44.0) Atlanta 10-2 O/U (44.0) Chicago 10-2 O/U (38.9) Baltimore 4-1 O/U (46.4) Philadelphia 4-1 O/U (46.8 ) Buffalo, Miami 3-1 O/U Tennessee 6-2 O/U.
San Francisco 0-6 O/U (27.0) Green Bay 0-5 O/U (29.6) Cleveland 0-3 O/U (30.0) Houston 0-3 O/U (34.0) NY Jets 0-3 O/U (26.3) Minnesota 1-5 O/U (29.2) Pittsburgh 2-9 O/U (31.6) Denver, Jacksonville, LA Chargers, NY Giants 1-3 O/U.
Week Two
New England 7-0 O/U (49.3) NY Jets 4-0 O/U (46.0) Tennessee 4-0 O/U (46.0) Cincinnati 6-1 O/U (43.1) Carolina 4-1 O/U (42.0) Dallas 4-1 O/U (47.0) LA Chargers 4-1 O/U (45.4) Baltimore 3-1 O/U (52.7) New Orleans 6-2 O/U (44.4) Chicago, Tampa Bay 7-3 O/U.
NY Giants 0-5 O/U (30.4) Houston 0-3 O/U (29.3) San Francisco 1-6 O/U (31.4) Buffalo 1-3 O/U (29.0) Cleveland 1-3 O/U (33.8 ) Green Bay 1-3 O/U (32.3) Indianapolis 1-3 O/U (39.0) Pittsburgh 1-3 O/U (33.3) Washington 3-7 O/U (35.4).
Week Three
Oakland 7-0-1 O/U (52.6) Philadelphia 4-0 O/U (57.0) Pittsburgh 6-1 O/U (46.8 ) NY Giants 3-1 O/U (46.3) NY Jets 3-1 O/U (47.8 ) Arizona 4-2 O/U (49.5) Baltimore 4-2 O/U (52.3) Jacksonville 4-2 O/U (49.7) Green Bay 6-3 O/U (52.8 ).
LA Chargers 0-5 O/U (29.0) Atlanta 0-4-1 O/U (31.6) Carolina 0-3 O/U (35.3) Chicago 0-3 O/U (33.7) Denver 0-3 O/U (30.7) Detroit 0-3 O/U (34.3) Minnesota 0-3 O/U (35.7) New England 0-3 O/U (35.3) New Orleans 0-3 O/U (40.3) San Francisco 0-3 O/U (30.0) Tampa Bay 0-3 O/U (38.7) Miami 1-7-1 O/U.
Week Four
Oakland 3-0 O/U (56.0) Seattle 3-0 O/U (56.0) LA Rams 6-1 O/U (43.1) Arizona 4-1 O/U (47.0) Minnesota 4-1 O/U (43.0) San Francisco 4-1 O/U (43.2) NY Jets 7-2 O/U (42.1) Philadelphia 7-2 O/U (42.1) Denver, Green Bay, Kansas City 3-1 O/U.
Carolina 0-5 O/U (26.2) Jacksonville 0-4 O/U (34.8 ) Buffalo 0-3 O/U (33.0) Detroit 0-3 O/U (27.0) Washington 0-3 O/U (33.3) New England 1-6 O/U (29.3) Cincinnati 1-5 O/U 30.7) Indianapolis 1-5 O/U (30.7) Pittsburgh 1-4 O/U (32.8 ) Atlanta 2-8 O/U (29.8 ).
3) PRE-SEASON Series History OU PATTERNS (by date)
8/10 Atlanta @ Miami: 0-4 O/U last 4 in series (25.0 combined ppg)
8/12 Oakland @ Arizona: 4-0 O/U last 4 (48.5)
8/13 Seattle @ LA Chargers: 3-1 O/U last 4 (42.0)
8/17 Tampa Bay @ Jacksonville: 6-2 O/U last 8 (40.9)
8/18 Minnesota @ Seattle: 0-3 O/U last 3 (31.0)
8/19 Denver @ San Francisco: 1-3 O/U last 3 (34.0)
8/25 Kansas City @ Seattle: 1-4 O/U last 5 (36.4)
8/26 NY Jets @ NY Giants: 3-1 O/U last 4 (47.8 )
8/27 San Francisco @ Minnesota: 1-3 O/U last 4 (32.2)
8/31 Seattle @ Oakland: 3-0 O/U last 3 (56.0)
8/31 Arizona @ Denver: 3-0 O/U last 3 (51.0)
8/31 Pittsburgh @ Carolina: 0-5 O/U last 5 (26.2)
8/31 Detroit @ Buffalo: 0-3 O/U last 3 (27.0)
8/31 Jacksonville @ Atlanta: 0-3 O/U last 3 (35.3)
8/31 NY Giants @ New England: 1-6 O/U last 7 (29.3)
8/31 Cincinnati @ Indianapolis: 1-5 O/U last 6 (30.7)
8/31 Cleveland @ Chicago: 1-3 O/U last 4 (33.0)
8/31 Dallas @ Houston: 1-3 O/U last 4 (35.0)
8/31 Baltimore @ New Orleans: 1-3 O/U last 4 (39.0)
STAT FOX HAS POSTED THEIR PRE-SEASON FOOTBALL INFO