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Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Monday, February 27th, 2017

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Free Picks forMonday, February 27th, 2017, from some of the nations best and worst handicappers

 
Posted : February 27, 2017 3:54 pm
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SCOTT RICKENBACH

Wolves vs. Kings
Play:Wolves -4½

Whenever something looks too good to be true it usually is. Many are going to look at this game and say how can the Timberwolves be laying a couple of buckets on the road when they are 8-18 on the road this season and they're at Sacramento where the Kings are 13-16 on the season. Being the contrarian that I am it is games like this that often catch my attention and I am going to back the feisty Timberwolves who are seeking revenge here against a Kings team that is still trying to adjust to the post-Cousins era. Minnesota has lost both games with Sacramento this season but, prior to that, the T-wolves had won 4 straight against the Kings including each of the last two meetings in Sacramento. Overall, Minny is on a 3-1 run in games played at Sacramento. The Kings have shot the ball very poorly in 2 of their last 3 games and they've lost 7 of their last 11 when they are off of a game where they were held to 85 points or less. The Timberwolves have shot the ball extremely well and they come into this game having averaged 112 points per game in their last 8 games. Coming off of a high-scoring loss at Houston, look for the T-wolves to bounce back strong here as they are 11-5 ATS this season when off of a game where they allowed 115 points or more.

 
Posted : February 27, 2017 3:55 pm
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STEVE JANUS

Wolves vs. Kings
Play: Kings +4½

Play Against - Road teams (MINNESOTA) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite, off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog. This system is 169-103 (62%) against the spread since 1996.

 
Posted : February 27, 2017 4:05 pm
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Wunderdog

Texas Arlington -9.5

Texas Arlington has been a moneymaker for two seasons now and the Mavericks are 12-0 at home, including 5-2 ATS this season. This is a huge revenge game for the Mavericks, who lost 93-71 to Troy on Jan. 14 as a five-point favorite when the Trojans shot 58.9 percent from the floor. That is highly unlikely to happen again as Troy averages just a .445 field goal percentage on the season and UT Arlington allows a .418 shooting percentage. Troy comes off a 63-59 loss at Texas State with Jordan Varnado scoring 24 points and the Trojans shooting 41.1 percent. Arlington has won six straight, including 86-75 over South Alabama on Saturday while shooting 50.0 percent overall and 44.8 percent from three-point range. The Mavericks are 7-2-1 ATS their last 10 home games.

 
Posted : February 27, 2017 4:06 pm
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SEAN HIGGS

Jacksonville vs. North Florida
Play: Jacksonville +125

We will be grabbing JACKSONVILLE ML here. You can take the 2.5, but I think the Dolphins win this one. North Florida has won both meetings this year ( including 73-69 on Thursday night) and 8 straight in the series.

I really can't knock the Ospreys as they won the A-Sun Regular Season last year. But they have struggled to a 8-6 conference record this year. Something tells me they get picked off here in the 'River City Rumble.'

 
Posted : February 27, 2017 4:30 pm
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BRANDON LEE

Pacers vs. Rockets
Play: Over 230

The Rockets were already one of the league's top offensive teams and it appears the trade for Lou Williams has made them even more explosive. In his first two games Houston has put up 129 against the Pelicans and 142 against the Timberwolves. They come in averaging 116.7 ppg at home and will be taking on a Pacers team that hasn't been playing any defense. In fact, Indiana is giving up 118.7 points per 100 possessions during their recent 1-7 slump. The Pacers allow 109.7 ppg on the road. These two teams played on 1/29 and combined for only 121 points, but that was with Houston scoring a mere 101 points (final game of a 5-game road trip). last time out the Rockets combined for 272 with the T-Wolves and while this number is way up there, I don't think the books have adjusted enough for how the Rockets are playing right now.

 
Posted : February 27, 2017 4:30 pm
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SCOTT SPREITZER

Pacers vs. Rockets
Play: Pacers +10

The Pacers whipped Houston 120-101 in January, handing James Harden one of his worst nights in a long time. Yes, Harden was off, but it was also a case of the Pacer backcourt matchups making a difference. Houston will be bent on revenge and they might exact some, but I expect Indiana to hang the big number. Paul George, who scored 33 points in the January win over the Rockets, got ejected with 8:49 to go in the third quarter in a loss to Miami on Saturday night. The Pacers led by as many as 11 points before Paul's ejection and the game was tied with 3 minutes to go in the third. But Indiana couldn't overcome his loss in the final quarter and Miami took advantage. I suspect we'll see a focused Paul George, looking to atone for his mistake. Houston is 7-2 SU in their last nine games, but have been beating up bad teams. Only one of the seven wins came against a team with a record better than 25-34 SU. And while the Pacers are on a decent 6-2 ATS run off a loss by more than 10 points, the Rockets have covered just one of their last seven against teams with a winning record.

 
Posted : February 27, 2017 4:31 pm
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JOHN MARTIN

Hawks vs. Celtics
Play: Celtics -4

This is a very short price for the Boston Celtics to be laying at home against the struggling Atlanta Hawks. The Celtics are 20-8 at home this season and have not forgotten losing to the Hawks in the playoffs last year, so they'll be out for revenge. They already won their first meeting this season 103-101 in Atlanta. Now they face a Hawks team that hasn't even been competitive in going 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games. They lost by 15 at the Clippers, by 18 at home to the Heat and by 19 at the Magic. I'm not worried about this being a back-to-back situation as the Celtics are 33-16 ATS over the last three seasons when playing the second of a back-to-back.

 
Posted : February 27, 2017 4:31 pm
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JOHN MARTIN

Hawks vs. Celtics
Play: Celtics -4

This is a very short price for the Boston Celtics to be laying at home against the struggling Atlanta Hawks. The Celtics are 20-8 at home this season and have not forgotten losing to the Hawks in the playoffs last year, so they'll be out for revenge. They already won their first meeting this season 103-101 in Atlanta. Now they face a Hawks team that hasn't even been competitive in going 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games. They lost by 15 at the Clippers, by 18 at home to the Heat and by 19 at the Magic. I'm not worried about this being a back-to-back situation as the Celtics are 33-16 ATS over the last three seasons when playing the second of a back-to-back.

 
Posted : February 27, 2017 4:31 pm
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MIKE LUNDIN

Pacers vs. Rockets
Play: Pacers +10

The Houston Rockets are coming off a 142-130 win against Minnesota and they've now won six of their last seven games. They're however only 2-7 ATS in their last nine games following a straight up win of more than 10 points and 1-6 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. The Indiana Pacers are still boasting a winning record at 30-29 despite losing seven of their last eight games. They fell 113-95 at Miami on Saturday but are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points. Houston will most likely win this game, but the bookmakers are giving the Pacers way too many points here.

 
Posted : February 27, 2017 4:32 pm
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JESSE SCHULE

North Carolina vs. Virginia
Play: Virginia +3½

The Virginia Cavs had lost four straight before busting loose and scoring 70 points in a win at North Carolina State Saturday. They return home to host the red hot UNC Tar Heels, in this season's second meeting between the two teams. North Carolina won at home in the previous meeting, despite scoring a season low 65 points. The Tar Heels might be hard pressed to score that many here in the rematch, as the Cavs have held opponents to just 51.1 points on 36.7 percent shooting at home. The Cavs lost 54-48 in overtime at home to Miami, and lost 65-55 to Duke. They crushed Louisville by a score of 71-55, and they are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as a home underdog of 0.5-6.5. The Tar Heels have already clinched at least a share of the ACC Title, and even if they lose tonight's game, they can clinch with a win at home versus Duke on Saturday. This looks like a bit of a let down spot for the Tar Heels, and they could also get caught looking ahead to that game against Duke. I'll take the points with a hungry Cavs team at home.

 
Posted : February 27, 2017 4:32 pm
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BRAD DIAMOND

Miami vs. Virginia Tech
Play: Miami +1

Tonight we have an ESPN affair in the ACC when Miami visits Tech in a series double revenge situation for the Gobblers. Miami shows winning 4 straight, covering at a 3-1 pace. The last two were dynamite upsets of Duke and Virginia. Tech comes home off one of the more noteworthy games in ACC lore when they beat Boston College up in Boston. Incredible they shot 67.4% from three which was the difference in the game, a conference record. Both units are vying for 5th place in the conference tourney.

Tech has shot 51.1% overall, but they face a Hurricane monster defense that has surrendered just 59.0 points on average in their last five games. Remember, Tech lost to Virginia recently 71-48, while I mentioned Miami just beat the Cavs. Granted VPI does lead the ACC in some stats but, they play without stellar contributor Clarke who is injured. He was averaging 11.4 points per game (7.3 RPG, 3.3 APG). Granted his replacement Ty Outlaw is playing well, however, he has yet to face the fierce Miami defense. We note, the last three games in the series Miami has been booked as the underdog, now Tech is favored? Against the spread, the Gobblers are 0-3-1 ATS L4 as a home chalk. As a long-term road underdog Miami boards with a 35-17-2 ATS mark, 4-0 ATS in Monday editions..

 
Posted : February 27, 2017 4:33 pm
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TEDDY COVERS

Raptors vs. Knicks
Play: Raptors -3½

The Knicks haven’t won back-to-back games since before Christmas. They blew a double digit second half lead against the 76ers last time out, lucky to escape with a one point victory thanks to a Carmelo Anthony buzzer beating jumper.
That game winning shot improved the Knicks record to 4-11 SU in their last 15 home games – it’s not like this team has much of an edge playing at Madison Square Garden these days.

And the quotes coming out of New York are ‘bet-against’ in every sense of the word. Derrick Rose, following their loss to open the second half: "It's a different offense. As a point guard, you're always in the corner and just got to play off reads and play that way. It's new for everybody here. I get all my points off random baskets. Unless you see it go to the post, all the other stuff is just random basketball."

Carmelo Anthony: “I think they were kind of planning on the trade deadline whether they were trying to make moves. I think that was one plan. Now they've got to get back to the drawing board and come up with another plan about the future of this team." Plain and simple – these are not the kinds of quotes I’m looking for out of my veteran leaders on a struggling team.

The Raptors have won and covered two straight since picking up Serge Ibaka and PJ Tucker at the trading deadline. All Star guard DeMar DeRozan, talking about Toronto’s new additions: “It takes a lot of pressure off. The teams just have to understand that you have to pick and choose. You know we have another weapon out there for teams to worry about…. We got 23 games left. We got to leave it all out there. Before we know it, playoffs will be here."

The betting markets have priced this one cheaply, concerned about the absence of Raptors point guard Kyle Lowry. But backups Cory Joseph and Delon Wright have filled in very well over the past two games; more than capable of running the offense and defending Derrick Rose this evening.

 
Posted : February 27, 2017 4:34 pm
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RED DOG SPORTS

Liverpool vs. Leicester
Play: Liverpool -1

Liverpool is off a 2-0 home win and has been off for two weeks. Leicester has struggled in the Premier League this season after winning the title last year. They did fire their coach (Rainieri) and may play well for their new skipper (Shakespeare) but the home team will need to step up and play well to stay within a goal on Monday.

 
Posted : February 27, 2017 4:35 pm
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BLACK WIDOW

Raptors vs. Knicks
Play: Knicks +3½

Bet on underdogs (New York) after allowing 105 points or more in 3 straight games against an opponent that's off a win by 6 points or less are 56-20 ATS over the last 5 seasons. This situation's record is 21-10 ATS this season alone. The Raptors will be tired playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days here. Plus they don't have their leader in PG Kyle Lowry, who is out with a wrist injury. New York is a live home underdog tonight.

 
Posted : February 27, 2017 4:36 pm
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