Free Picks for Saturday, February 25th, 2017, from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
Jim Feist
Alabama vs. Texas A&M
Play: Under 126
A pair of defensive teams clash as Alabama is #13 in the SEC in scoring, Texas A&M is #10. Alabama is 5-0 under the total against a winning straight up record. A&M plays strong defense at home where they are 4-1 under the total. The Under is 4-0 in the Aggies last four against a team with a winning straight up record. And when these teams clash the under is 5-0.
Red Dog Sports
North Carolina vs. Pittsburgh
Play: Pittsburgh +8
UNC has a road game with Virginia coming next and then their home finale vs. Duke and may overlook the Panthers, who did win recent home games with Syracuse and Florida State. They beat Virginia at home too.
UNC only beat Pitt 80-78 at home. The Panthers are led by a bunch of seniors and juniors like Artis, Young, Jeter and Jones as well as underclassman Cameron Johnson. I think UNC finds a way to win with Berry, Justin Jackson, Meeks, Hicks and Pinson but Pitt stays within the number.
Marc Lawrence
UCLA vs. Arizona
Play: UCLA +1½
Edges - Bruins: 5-1 ATS in this series. Wildcats: 1-5 ATS home following a home game versus an opponent off an away game. With the Bruins looking to avenge an 11-point home loss - their worst defeat of the season - look for them to improve to 6-1 SU against .875 or greater foes this season here tonight. We recommend a 1* play on UCLA.
Rob Vinciletti
Minnesota vs. Houston
Play: Over 228
This game fit s a nice post all star break totals system that pertains to the over. Houston has gone over both times at home after scoring 120 or more on the road. The Wolves have posted over 8 of 9 on the road with no rest off a home game and 8 of the last 9 overall. In the series these two have gone over the total in 9 of the last 10. Look for a high scoring game tonight.
DAVE COKIN
MERCER AT CHATTANOOGA
PLAY: MERCER +8.5
I wonder about Chattanooga’s motivation here. The loss at Samford on the heels of the home defeat to ETSU means the Mocs are out of the title chase. So it’s a bit of a hollow Senior Day for the five guys that will be honored. One of those is Greg Pryor, and he might not be able to play as he suffered a concussion at practice on Tuesday.
The game is very meaningful for Mercer. The Bears can still win their way out off the SoCon play-in round, and this is also revenge for an earlier two-point home loss. That close home loss road dog revenge angle has been on fire. Chattanooga appears vulnerable right now, so getting this many points, I will take Mercer.
Scott Spreitzer
Creighton vs. Villanova
Play: Villanova -10½
Both Creighton & the Wildcats are off SU losses as chalk. The Jays lost at home to Providence, failing to score over the final 3+ minutes of gametime. Villanova fell victim to a lackadaisical effort and after taking a 49-42 lead over Butler, collapsed and finished on the wrong end of a season sweep. But Villanova has owned this series of late, including an 80-70 win in Omaha earlier this season. Mo Watson, Jr., played in that one yet the Jays couldn't gain the win at home. Watson has been out for a while and CU has been quite average more often than not since. In fact, Greg McDermott's squad has won just four of nine games SU & ATS without their star point-guard. Meanwhile, the defending champs are 13-1 SU at home this season and play in their home finale today. The 'Cats are not only the 8th most accurate shooting team in the nation, but hold opponents to 63 ppg. They're 8-2 ATS off a loss on a 4-1 ATS run in the series.
Mike Lundin
New Orleans vs. Dallas
Play: New Orleans +1
The Pelicans took a 129-99 beating by the Rockets home in New Orleans in All-Star center DeMarcus Cousins' first game with the team on Thursday. I think they'll do much better when they visit the Dallas Mavericks Saturday night. The Mavs suffered a 97-84 road loss against Minnesota on Friday and odds are we'll see them struggle to keep up with the Pels here in the second leg of a back-to-back. The Pels are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up loss and I like them to pick up their first win with Cousins on the team tonight.
Chip Chirimbes
Creighton vs. Villanova
Play: Villanova -10½
No. 2 Villanova is off their 3rd loss of the season as Butler took them down for the second time breaking a seven-game win streak. The Wildcats know that despite that loss they can clinch the Big East regular season title and the No. 1 seed with a win here. It is 'Senior Day' at The Pavilion but I'm sure Jay Wright will have his squad focused. Trends say to take the Bluejays as they are 7-2 ATS in their last 11 road games and Villanova is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Creighton is still without Maurice Watson Jr. who added distraction to the mix by being charged with first degree sexual assault charges.
Matt Josephs
Northern Illinois vs. Eastern Michigan
Play: Northern Illinois +5
A pair of struggling teams play as Eastern Michigan hosts Northern Illinois. NIU has lost four of their last five, but has wins at Central Michigan, Toledo, Bowling Green and Kent State already this season. They also have a home win over the Eagles 81-69 back on February 4th. Balance is the name of the game with the Huskies as they have six guys who average seven points per game or more. EMU has lost seven straight and nine of their last 10 with four of those coming at home. They've won just two MAC games at home and have covered just four of them overall so there's something going on considering this is a talented team. I'll take a chance with the road team and hope the Eagles don't wake up.
TJ Masterline
Atlanta s. Orlando
Play: Atlanta -2.5
When I saw the card for the week, this game jumped out at me. The Magic are the 3rd worst team in the league, in my opinion, having won 2 out of 10 pretty much almost as a rule this year, and this last 10. Play on Atlanta on the road. Here are some stats to further back up our play: Hawks are 11-5 ATS in the last 16 meetings in Orlando. Hawks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Hawks are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games playing on 0 days rest. Hawks are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up loss. Hawks are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 Saturday games. Hawks are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games following a double-digit loss at home. Hawks are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games following a ATS loss. Magic are 18-38-1 ATS in their last 57 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Magic are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 vs. NBA Southeast. Magic are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 Saturday games. Magic are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games playing on 1 days rest. Magic are 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 home games. Magic are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss. Magic are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss. Magic are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Magic are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Magic are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall. Magic are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
Jesse Schule
Towson vs. William & Mary
Play: William & Mary -5
William and Mary might be the nation's best bet at home, with a perfect 12-0 record this season. They don't just win their home games, for the most part, they blow out their opponents. Their last five home wins have all come by a double digit margin, even against some of the top teams in the CAA. They beat the first place Seahawks by a whopping 18 points at home last month. William and Mary are averaging 91 points on an unbelievable 55.1 percent shooting at home." That's what I said prior to the Tribe's last game, a home loss to Hofstra. It was their first home loss of the season, and I like their chances of bouncing back here in their final home game against Towson. The Tigers are hardly an offensive powerhouse, averaging just 68.2 points on 43 percent shooting on the road. Their last game was an 83-78 loss at UNC Wilmington, ending a six game win streak. They might struggle to get up for this game, playing on the road and coming off a tough loss.
Brandon Shively
Iowa vs. Maryland
Pick: Maryland
This is a ‘stop the bleeding’ game for the Terps and I like them in this spot for a number of reasons. The Terps have lost 2 straight games and they are 21-4 SU and 13-7-1 ATS since 2007 at home and off 2 losses. The Terps are a ranked team and fall under a nice angle where we look to play on ranked home favorites off back to back losses against a team off a win, like Iowa. These ranked home favorites have covered 56% of the time since 2010. When they have beaten their opponent the previous 2 meetings, they carry a strong 24-12-1 ATS mark since 2010. Iowa is coming off an overtime win vs Indiana. They were are a favorite in that game. Today they are an underdog and are a lousy 4-8 SU and ATS as a dog this season, including 0-7 ATS as a road dog! Look for the Terrapins to embrace this spot and roll by double digits.
Scott Rickenbach
Santa Clara vs. St. Mary's
Play: Under 122½
This total opened up at a 114 yesterday afternoon. It is now as high as a 122.5 as of early gameday morning. An 8.5 point line move on a total that low means that this is a 7% move in terms of value and that is a huge. It is equivalent to a total of 160 going up to a 171 and moving a full 11 points and you just don't see moves like this very often. How can we possibly back an under that is such a low total? Well, for one thing we know we're getting a lot of value at 122.5 when we know odds makers only wanted to give us 114. But the key is understanding why this total was so low in the first place. This is the regular season finale for both teams so you know they're going to bring a strong effort. That said, defense is the key for St Mary's when they are focused. The only team that consistently got to the Gaels this season in conference action was Gonzaga but of course the Bulldogs are the #1 team in the country. Other than the two losses to the Bulldogs, the St Mary's D only slipped up one time in conference action when they allowed 70 points in a high-scoring win at Pacific. Incredibly the Gaels other West Coast Conference games saw them allow an average only 50 points per game! That is precisely why this total was set where it was today. Odds makers are expecting a 65-50 type game (line around a -15). That said, this line move has set up tremendous line value especially when you consider that St Mary's has allowed just 45 points per game in their last 3 home games against opponents other than Gonzaga! As for Santa Clara, they have allowed just 56 points per game in all their February games other than when Gonzaga lit them up (like the Bulldogs do against everybody). As you can see an ugly, grinding regular season finale for these two teams is quite likely here.
Jimmy Boyd
Tennessee vs. South Carolina
Play: South Carolina -6½
The Gamecocks come in having lost 3 straight and have failed to cover the spread in 6 straight games. I see this as a prime spot to jump on South Carolina when they are undervalued at home against a lessor opponent. The Gamecocks own a 13-3 record at home and will be facing a Tennessee team that they defeated by double-digits on the road earlier this season. The Volunteers are really struggling of late, as they just shot a mere 29% from the field at home in a 56-67 loss to Vanderbilt.
More than anything, this is a statement game for South Carolina, who knows they need to turn things around right now to build momentum for both the SEC Tournament and NCAA Tournament. The favorite has covered the spread in 7 of the last 10 meetings in the series and the Volunteers are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against a team with a winning record.