Free Picks for Monday, February 20th, 2017, from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
COASTAL CAROLINA AT SOUTH ALABAMA
PLAY: COASTAL CAROLINA +3
Both Coastal Carolina snd South Alabama are showing signs of life down the Sun Belt stretch. The Chanticleers had won four of five before falling at Troy on Saturday. The Jaguars are also 4-2 in their last six games following Saturday’s win at home against Appalachian State.
This is the only meeting between these teams this regular season. I see some reason to look for the road dog to get this one in the win column off the head to head category comparisons.
The key player in this game figures to be South Alabama guard Ken Williams. When he’s driving and dishing, Williams can be very effective at this level. But he’s also very prone to going into launch mode and settling for threes, and that’s an aspect of the game Williams simply isn’t very good at.
The same can be said for Shaq Calhoun. The two have combined to attempt 253 toys this season, and have converted on only 69 of those shots.
The Chanticleers prefer to play zone defense, and if that gets Williams in particular shooting instead of distributing, I would think the Jaguars might be in trouble to win this game. For me, this is going to come down to three point quantity for South Alabama. If the Chanticleers force them to settle for long jumpers, I think they win this game. If the Jaguars work the ball and get inside the zone, they should hold serve at home.
This sure looks like a tossup. If that’s indeed the case, the Chanticleers have shown themselves to be a bit more proficient in winning games that go to the wire. I’ll lean to Coastal Carolina plus the points.
Scott Rickenbach
Miami vs. Virginia
Play: Miami +9½
Even without Ja'Quan Newton (suspended), the Hurricanes are playing well and come into this match-up at Virginia off of back to back wins. Though this will certainly be a tough test for Miami, the Canes are catching the Cavaliers at the right time. The Cavs come into this game struggling to score points as they don't have much of an interior game on offense so when the perimeter shots aren't falling it becomes a disaster for Virginia Tech. What makes the situation even tougher for the Cavaliers here is the fact that Miami does play solid defense and is allowing only 64 points per game on the season. That said, I just don't see the Cavs as being able to get much of a margin in this game. Virginia has lost 5 of its last 7 games and they've been held to just 62 points or less in 4 of those 5 defeats. The Cavaliers are 6-10 ATS when playing with 1 day or less of rest between games. The Hurricanes are a perfect 2-0 on the ACC road so far this month and I expect a 3rd straight cover here as all the pressure is on Virginia to respond here after three straight losses and that certainly isn't going to make the outside shooting come any easier for the Cavs as pressure doesn't help shooting form from the outside. One final factor here is that the Canes were knocked out of the ACC Tourney by the Cavaliers last March. The Hurricanes may not get their revenge here but they are certainly motivated by it and I don't foresee them falling short by much in this one. The last 3 meetings have all been decided by single digits and the average margin has been just 5.3 points. Look for more of the same in this one as it proves to be another tight game.
Braxton Myles
Texas vs. West Virginia
Play: Texas +16
I love this line for Texas this should be a hard line for West Virginia to cover on Monday. West Virginia is only 5-6 ATS at home and haven't covered a line bigger than 8 points in conference this season. Texas is 6-6 ATS on the road this season and 11 is the biggest line they haven't covered in conference play this season. The first time these two played this season Texas held their own only losing by 2 points, I don't see this game being this close this time around with the game being at West Virginia but it shouldn't get to far out of line in this one.
Marc Lawrence
Texas-Arlington vs. Georgia Southern
Play: Georgia Southern +4
Edges - Eagles: 3-1 ATS in this series, including 2-0 SUATS at home; and 3-0 ATS following a win against Texas State… Mavericks: 1-3 ATS as a road favorite against winning foes this season. With GSU 9-3 ATS as a home dog since 2007, we recommend a 1* play on Georgia Southern.
Art Aronson
Boston College vs. Florida St
Play: Boston College +20
Looks like a good spot to pull the trigger on the underdog tonight and while we’ll stop short in calling for the outright upset, we do definitely believe this is a few too many points to be giving up in this circumstance. BC comes in off a hard-fought 84-76 home loss to Notre Dame, while Florida State enters off a deflating 80-66 setback to Pittsburgh. It was a bit of a bitter pill to swallow for the Eagles last time out as they let a ten-point halftime lead slip away. So far BC averages 72.6 PPG and allows the exact same amount. FSU averages 83.6 PPG and allows 71.4. However the Seminoles looked extremely average in the setback to the Panthers, allowing Pittsburgh to hit 55 percent from the floor. Note that BC is 7-2 ATS in its last nine following an ATS victory, while FSU is just 1-3 ATS this year off a loss against a conference rival. The Eagles last three road losses have come by 11 points or fewer and they’ve scored 76 points or more if five of their last eight.
Will Rogers
Miami vs. Virginia
Pick: Virginia -9.5
The set-up: The 18-8 Miami Hurricanes will be in Charlottesville Monday night for a game with the 18-8 Virginia Cavaliers. Both teams are 8-6 in ACC games, although the Cavs have arrived at that record by losing three consecutive games, while the Hurricanes have won two straight and four of their last five.
Miami: The Hurricanes lost both starting guards (McClellan and Rodriguez) from last year's 27-win Sweet 16 team and now have to deal with second-leading scorer Ja’Quan Newton (15.0), who will miss his third straight game for violating team rules. However, it should be noted that the 'Canes have won the last two games without Newton. Senior forward Kamari Murphy (6.8 & 7.6) scored a career-high 15 on Saturday and told reporters. “With guys out, our guys’ motto in the locker room has been to ‘find a way.’ Everybody’s stepping up.” Starting in the frontcourt along with the 6-8 Murphy are the 6-7 Lawrence (7.2 & 3.9) and 6-10 center Izundu (4.8 & 3.2). Newton's a key cog in the backcourt but the duo of senior Reed (15.7 & 4.5) and freshman Brown (11.4-6.2-3.5) still allows Miami to compete well.
Virginia: How quickly a team's fortunes can change in the world of sports. Virginia was up 14 points at the half against rival Virginia Tech back on Feb. 12 and a win would have left the Cavs tied for first place in the ACC. However, Va Tech rallied to win that game 80-78 (2 OTs) plus Virginia followed that collapse with losses to Duke and North Carolina. Suddenly, Tony Bennett and his team are three games out of first place and in the middle of its first three-game losing streak in six years! Virginia is a great defensive team (55.8 PPG allowed is a nation's-best) but the lack of any productive scorers other than PG London Perrantes (12.6-3.2-3.8 ) has clearly caught up to them. Perrantes is the lone Cavalier to average in double digits on the season and is averaging 15.2 PPG over his last six. However, when a team scores just 55 points on 36.8% shooting (including 25.0% on threes) like it did against Duke and follows with 41 points on 27.8% shooting (including just 2 of 20 on threes) like it did against North Carolina, defense is not enough to win!
The pick: The good news for Virginia fans is that Bennett's team should draw confidence from the fact that the Cavaliers have won four of the last five meetings between the two schools, including a 73-68 victory in the ACC semifinals last year. Virginia is currently ranked No. 14 but that won't be the case when Monday's new poll isrelea sed. Bennett's team enters Monday scrambling and desperate for a win. My bet says the Cavs do just that.
Jim Feist
Boston College at Florida St
Pick: Under
Boston College can't do much on offense, riding a 10-game skid, second to last in shooting, dead last at the free throw line (67%). Florida State is strong on defense, 8-3 under the total against teams with winning percentages below .400. The Under is also 10-2 in the Seminoles last 12 games following a spread loss. And the Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Florida St.
David Banks
Texas vs. West Virginia
Play: West Virginia
Texas (10-15, 4-8 ) hasn’t enjoyed the type of season that it had hoped for, but the Longhorns have a chance to make a late season statement when they travel to No. 13 West Virginia on Monday night. Texas almost pulled the upset the first time they played the Mountaineers losing 74-72 back on Jan. 14. The Longhorns held their own with West Virginia and even outshot the Mountaineers from 3-point range, but playing short-handed and being inexperienced hasn’t helped Texas this season.
The Mountaineers (20-5, 8-4) will face No. 3 Kansas and Texas Tech before welcoming the Longhorns. Head coach Bob Huggins team has already beaten the Jayhawks once and another win over one of the nation’s best would almost guarantee West Virginia a No. 1 or No. 2 seed in the upcoming NCAA tournament. That, of course, would depend upon how well the Mountaineers play down the stretch. That includes dominating a Texas team that is not in the same league with the talented Mountaineers.
Huggins plays 10 players consistently and all are capable in the Mountaineers up-tempo, pressure system. Jevon Carter (11.8 ppg) and Esa Ahmad (11.6) lead West Virginia and players like Nathan Adrian, Tarik Philip, and Daxter Miles Jr. are capable of lighting it up on any given night. The Longhorns finish a tough season with the Mountaineers, No. 3 Kansas, and No. 6 Baylor among their final six games.
Jimmy Moore
Texas +16
Texas is not having a stellar season in hoops but this is a matchup they are awesome in as they have covered 8 of their last 9 against the Mountaineers. West Virginia has only covered 1 of their last 4 home games and they have gone to OT their last 2 games in a row so they may be a bit more worn out than usual. Look for Texas to keep this game within this number to get the cover here.
Dave Cokin
Texas at West Virginia
Play: Texas +16
Longhorns fit the close home loss road dog revenge angle, which is doing okay at right about 60% on the season. West Virginia certainly ought to win this, but they're off a double OT game on Saturday, and of course the prior game was that insane deal at Kansas. So they're not exactly in a perfect spot here and while Texas isn't winning, they're battling and have not have lost a league game by this many. Texas plus the points to hang in enough to get the spread win.
Wunderdog
Texas Longhorns @ West Virginia Mountaineers
Pick: West Virginia Mountaineers -15
Texas is winless on the road and this is a tough spot against an angry, attacking West Virginia defense. Texas has been shorthanded much of the season, last in the Big 12 in scoring, free throw shooting (64.9%), and three-point shooting (30%). West Virginia plays its second straight home game, and coach Bob Huggins is still steaming about blowing a 14-point lead in the final minutes of an eventual 84-80 overtime loss at Kansas last week. They won, but didn't cover Saturday, and the Mountaineers are 15-7 ATS following a spread loss. West Virginia leads the nation in steals (11.1 per game) and has had eight contests with 15 or more, making this a tough spot for the struggling visitors.
Steve Janus
Boston College vs. Florida St
Play: Boston College +18½
Play Against - Favorites of 10 to 19.5 points (FLORIDA ST) - after being beaten by the spread by more than 18 points in their previous game against opponent after going under the total by 24 or more points total in their last three games. This system is 29-7 (81%) against the spread since 1997.
Brandon Lee
Iowa State vs. Texas Tech
Play: Iowa State +1½
The Cyclones are worth a look here at basically a pick'em against the Red Raiders. Texas Tech is 15-2 at home, covered the spread in 5 straight games and gave Iowa State all they could handle in Ames earlier this season. It certainly seems like the books are begging for you to jump on the home team in this one. What a lot of people will overlook is the Red Raiders are coming off a double-overtime loss to West Virginia on Saturday. Not only is that a difficult loss to bounce back from emotionally, it will be even more challenging rebounding with just 1-day of rest. They had 3 starters log over 40 minutes, two more played 30+ and two more at 20+. For a team that only uses a 7-man rotation, I think their attempt at revenge will be spoiled by an Iowa State team that is playing some of the best basketball of the season right now.
John Ryan
Miami vs. Virginia
Play: Virginia -7½
SIM algorithm shows a 70% probability that UVA will win this game by more than 8 points to their fourth straight Conference loss. You may notice that we are showing a more precise probability assigned to each of our plays. This is an information-based statement and in no way should it change the amount you wager on each game. The ‘star’ rating remains the investment foundation. However, it is helpful to know what the specific projections are that build into that final probability metric and we will be adding those details in the weeks ahead of the MLB season.
Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 75-11 mark good for 87% winners and has made 49 units/unit wagered since 1997. Play on favorites of -165 to -500 using the money line (VIRGINIA) that us an excellent defensive team allowing 63 or fewer PPG against a good defensive team allowing between 63 and 67 PPG and after 15+ games, and after scoring 50 points or less in their previous game. Truly a bounce-back type of system supporting a great defensive team. Even though the Cavaliers have been poor on the offensive end, they are significantly more talented than their recent shooting woes would indicate. We fully expect them to use their nation-best defense to generate scoring opportunities in transition.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points
The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game.
UVA is a solid 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) when they make 47% to 53% of their shots in a game over the last 2 seasons.
UVA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in home games when they commit 3 to 7 fewer turnovers than their opponents over the last 3 seasons.
UVA is 46-28 ATS (+15.2 Units) in home games when they grab 34 to 39 rebounds in a game since 1997.
Fundamental Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Cavaliers.