Free Picks for Sunday, February 19th, 2017, from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
QUINNIPIAC AT MAHATTAN
PLAY: QUINNIPIAC +2
Quinnipiac was the last place pre-season consensus pick in the MAAC, so you can make an argument that at 7-10 in league play, they’ve been perhaps a small surprise. One thing positive about the Bobcats is that in spite of their limitations, they’ve competed their heads off. They just can’t shoot the basketball, but this team hits the offensive glass with reckless abandon and they hustle like crazy. Aside from a disastrous home game against St. Peter’s a couple weeks ago, they’ve hung tough in most MAAC games and have managed to win some games.
Manhattan is a train wreck. I don’t know that Steve Masiello is on the hot seat, as he signed a lengthy extension last March. But this team has not performed at all well, and there have been too many games where the effort has been mailed in. The Jaspers are 2-8 in their last 10 games, and each of the wins was by one point. This is the home finale for Manhattan, but I don’t know why that would represent a positive at this juncture.
I’ve got the visitors as the higher rated team, and I trust them more to show up with effort, so Quinnipiac plus a basket is the play.
Ken Thomson
Minnesota Pk
Feeling like Richard Pitino will have the Gophers ready for the home court battle tonight. Wolverines not a great road team and a chance for Gophers to get win number 20 on the season and pass the Wolverines in the Big Ten Standings. After dropping 5 straight conference games, Minnesota has won their last four. Home court is king in this conference!
Scott Rickenbach
Connecticut vs. Temple
Play: Temple -130
Big revenge game for Temple on their home floor. The Owls got knocked out of the conference tourney by 15 points at the hands of the Huskies last spring and then they lost at Connecticut by 14 points last month. Needless to say a little payback is on order and the Owls do come into this game a little undervalued as they have played the tougher schedule in comparison with the Huskies this season. UConn is 2-9 SU as an underdog this season and they've gone 2-5 ATS this season in games with a posted total in the 130s. The Owls are a long-term 18-5 (both SU and ATS) in home games where their line is 3 points or less. Temple is 8-3 SU in the games where they have been favored this season and the Owls are 36-10 SU in home games the past 3 seasons combined. Temple is off of a disappointing 78-64 loss at East Carolina Wednesday but the Owls are 5-0 ATS this season when off of a loss where they scored 60 points or more. Look for them to get back on track here and get their revenge as that ATS record stays perfect on the season!
Scott Spreitzer
Quinnipiac vs. Manhattan
Play: Manhattan -1½
Neither team is lighting things up, but the Jaspers are in a solid spot today. That solid spot? They draw Quinnipiac. The Bobcats have proven to be the sweet elixir for poor shooting teams. In fact, under Tom Moore, they have covered just 10 of 34 against teams shooting 42% or less. That would stand to reason with the Bobcats allowing opponents to nail nearly 46% of their FGA on the season, overall, and they're giving up 80 ppg on the road. Manhattan is playing their home season finale and a win here would even up the home record at 7-7 SU on the season. We believe they'll get it done.
John Martin
Illinois-Chicago vs. Oakland
Play: Illinois-Chicago +9½
The Oakland Golden Grizzlies are coming off a huge 82-71 win over Valparaiso on Friday that pulled them to within one game of the Crusaders for first place in the Horizon League. After such a big win, I expect them to come out a little flat today against Illinois-Chicago. This is a Flames team that only lost 57-58 as 9-point home dogs to the Golden Grizzlies in their first meeting this season. That places them in revenge mode here having already shown they can play with them. Illinois-Chicago is 6-0 ATS in February road games over the last two seasons. Oakland is 0-9 ATS in its last nine home games off five or more consecutive wins. The Flames are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games.
Jim Feist
Syracuse vs. Georgia Tech
Play: Under 136
Syracuse brings that 2-3 zone on the road playing well, winning 5 of 7. Georgia Tech has lost three of its last four ACC games, including a 70-61 setback at Miami on Wednesday. The Under is 25-9 in the Yellow Jackets last 34 home games. The Orange have won the last two meetings between the teams, including last year's contest in the Carrier Dome, 60-57.
Teddy Davis
Georgetown vs. Creighton
Play: Georgetown +6½
Creighton simply isn't the team they were with Watson in the lineup. Since he went down they have 3 wins, but 2 of them were against DePaul who is flat out terrible. Georgetown is quietly playing a lot better ball. The Hoyas are 4-2 SU their last 6 with losses coming by 2 against and only by 11 @ #1 ranked Nova. I know this is a revenge spot here for Creighton as they were embarrassed the first time around. Georgetown also has the much needed rest having a full week off as well.
Tony George
Maryland vs. Wisconsin
Play: Maryland +8
A lot of points despite a hectic travel schedule for the Terps here as Wisconsin who lost their last home game to NW, is averaging 66 ppg on offense their last 6 games and if you were to rank that 66 points in the rankings on offense for a season average, that would ranked 320th! Laying big points with a struggling offense against a ranked team in my opinion is a bad bet and Maryland is no slouch. Should be a good game gents, take the points.
Matt Josephs
Illinois-Chicago vs. Oakland
Play: Illinois-Chicago +9½
For the second time this season Oakland gets UIC after a huge victory over Valparaiso. The Grizzlies won by one at Illinois-Chicago back on January 8th 58-57 despite holding the Flames to 24.3% from the field. Oakland has failed to cover in four of their last five home games this season. One has to wonder what their motivation levels will be after Friday night. Illinois-Chicago has won three of their last four and has road wins at Detroit, Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Youngstown State and Cleveland State as well as DePaul back in December. Despite losing their leading scorer back in December, UIC has played some good basketball. I think they can hang in this game against a potentially flat Oakland team.
Jack Jones
Maryland vs. Wisconsin
Play: Maryland +8
It's absolutely shocking how disrespected the Maryland Terrapins have been this season. They have gone 22-4 SU & 16-7 ATS in all games this season, including 10-1 SU & 9-2 ATS in their 11 road games. They have gone 10-2-1 ATS in Big Ten play alone.
Now the Terrapins find themselves catching 8 points on the road to the Wisconsin Badgers, a team that has been extremely overrated all season, especially of late. The Badgers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall and 2-7 ATS in their last seven contests.
The Badgers are just 2-2 SU in their last four games. They only beat Indiana by 5 as 14-point home favorites, and needed OT to beat Nebraska 70-69 as 8-point road favorites. They also lost to Northwestern 59-66 as 11.5-point home favorites, and fell at Michigan 58-64 as 2-point road dogs.
Maryland is a perfect 10-0 ATS as an underdog this season. The Terrapins are 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up win. Maryland is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games as a road underdog. The Badgers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Jimmy Boyd
Michigan vs. Minnesota
Play: Minnesota Pk
I really like the value here with the Golden Gophers at a pick'em at home against the Wolverines. Minnesota comes in having won 4 straight to improve to 7-6 in the Big 10. They just aren't the respect as Michigan because their wins have come against the likes of Iowa, Illinois, Rutgers and Indiana. The Wolverines have won 3 straight with home wins over Michigan State and Wisconsin, sandwiched around a double-digit win at Indiana. Winning on the road in the Big Ten is no easy task and the Gophers are 14-3 at home this season and could easily be 17-0. I think Michigan is primed for a bit of a letdown here and won't be able to match the intensity of Minnesota.
The Wolverines are a just 19-34 ATS in their last 53 road games off 2 straight conference wins and are a mere 1-7 ATS this season after winning 3 or their last 4. Gophers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games against team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games.
Stephen Nover
Red Wings vs. Penguins
Play: Penguins -1½
Pittsburgh isn't playing up to its lofty standards of last season when it won the Stanley Cup. But the Penguins still have the best home record at 24-3-3. I see the Penguins stepping up here on national TV against the Red Wings, who are tied for having the third-fewest points in the NHL. Not only are the Penguins a much superior team - 24 points better than Detroit - but the situation sets up well for them. The combination should ensure at least a two-goal Penguins victory. Certainly the bookmaker sees a blowout making the Penguin better than a 3-to-1 favorite at some places. Now I won't lay anywhere near that kind of high juice, but I do think there's a good chance Pittsburgh wins by at least two goals. The Penguins have accomplished this during seven of their last nine victories. So I'm recommending a puck line play on Pittsburgh. The Penguins are off a 2-1 overtime road loss to Columbus this past Friday. They trail first-place Washington by five points in the Metropolitan Division. A loss to the lowly Red Wings would be highly embarrassing and something they can't afford. Detroit ended a five-game losing streak by upsetting the Capitals, 3-2, in a shootout yesterday. The Red Wings took advantage of the Capitals coming off their bye week. Detroit is playing without rest and not helped by the early start time. The Red Wings will be without suspended Gustav Nyquist. Pittsburgh lost defensemen Olli Maatta (hand) and Justin Schultz (concussion) to injuries this past Thursday. Star defenseman Kris Letang is used to playing big minutes, though, and the Penguins do have blue line depth with Steve Oleksy and Chad Ruhwedel. It's a big plus, too, that Matt Murray is slated to be in goal. He has the second-highest saves percentage in the league.
Marc Lawrence
Syracuse vs. Georgia Tech
Play: Georgia Tech +2
Edges - Yellow Jackets: 4-0 ATS in this series; and 5-1 ATS off SU loss vs foe off SU loss… Orange: 1-6 ATS away vs opponent with revenge. With Syracuse just 3-9 ATS in conference games after facing Louisville, and the visiting team 5-15 ATS in Orange games this season, we recommend a 1* play on Georgia Tech.
Power Sports
Georgetown vs. Creighton
Pick: Creighton
Revenge was a huge factor in many of my plays yesterday, a card that saw me go 4-1 overall in NCAAB! Here's yet another game where the revenge angle applies. Back on January 25th, Creighton lost at Georgetown, 71-51. That is easily the Blue Jays' largest margin of defeat in a game all season. In fact, three of the other four losses have been by single digits and the fourth by exactly 10 points. Coach McDermott's program certainly knows "a thing or two" about exacting revenge. They are 63-33 ATS the L96 times playing with revenge for a road loss. In Omaha, look for a little payback this afternoon.
Not that Creighton needed any added motivation here, but they are also coming off a "surprise" 87-81 loss at Seton Hall. I had surprise in quotes because the Blue Jays were actually underdogs (+1.5) in that one. Still, I think many would have thought they'd come out the victor there. Last month, they were favored at Georgetown (-1.5), so using that number as our baseline it does look like there's a bit of value on the home side here when you factor in the home court edge.
They've lost four of seven overall, but Creighton has lost B2B times only once this season. Ironically, it was G'town that handed them that dubious distinction. But even coming off an impressive 80-62 win over Marquette, it's not as if the Hoyas are that impressive. They'd lost B2B games prior to that win and the fact they allow 77.0 PPG on the road is a concern here. Creighton remains a top 15 offensive in terms of efficiency and points per game. They average more than 85 per game here at home.