Free Picks for Saturday, February 18th, 2017, from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
JAMES MADISON AT TOWSON
PLAY: TOWSON -7
I don”t know what JMU can have left in the tank here. The Dukes are off a wild OT win against W&M a couple days ago, and they’re basically a seven-man roster right now thanks to numerous injuries.
Towson lost a key guy when John Davis went down, but they haven’t missed a beat. Davis will be honored prior to the game along with Moto as it’s Senior Day for the Tigers. I don’t normally put much into that but the fact one of their two senior leaders will be in street clothes could be motivating. I expect the Tigers and their fans to be pretty revved up tonight.
I’m more convinced the Tigers have not forgotten the ugly 64-44 loss at JMU back in early January. That was the worst Towson game all season and I make the revenge a major factor here. James Madison has plenty of reason to want a win here, as they still have a chance to avoid the 7-10 seed play in round of the CAA Tournament. But I see the situation clearly favoring Towson and I’m giving the points.
Mike Lundin
Blues vs. Sabres
Play: Blues -121
The St. Louis Blues are going for a seventh consecutive win when they visit the Sabres at KeyBank Center Saturday afternoon. The Blues are 10-1 in the last 11 meetings on the road at Buffalo, and I think they'll come out ahead today as well. The Sabres will face a netminder (Jake Allen) who is 4-0 with a 0.98 GAA against them and they're averaging just 2.39 gpg at home this season. The Blues have outscored opponents 20-6 during their winning streak, and I like the price we get on the visitors here.
Scott Spreitzer
Wright State vs. Cleveland State
Play: Cleveland State Pk
Wright State has won three straight games and seven of their last nine, but we believe CSU is primed to end their three-game series skid against the Raiders. The Vikings threw a wrench into WSU's offensive system in last month's meeting in Dayton and came within four points of pulling the mild upset as a 6 1/2 point underdog. CSU forced 19 turnovers and if not for a 9-point disadvantage at the FT line, might have pulled it out. CSU is not going to dazzle anyone with offense, but have held six of their last nine opponents to 67 points or less. Turnovers will likely be a problem again for WSU. Guards Mark Alstork & Justin Mitchell are way too liberal with the basketball. While they lead the team in assists, the two have turned it over 118 & 85 times, respectively. Wright's two main ball-handlers have a combined 190 assists and a whopping 203 turnovers this season. The Viking backcourt got after them last month and I expect more of the same here. While they'd like to keep this one in the 60s, we do note that three Viking players average between 11 ppg and 16 ppg. CSU has covered seven of the last 10 meetings at home and you'd be 33-20 ATS going against Wright State in conference play over the last three seasons.
John Martin
Texas Tech vs. West Virginia
Play: Texas Tech +12
This game has hangover written all over it for the West Virginia Mountaineers. The blew a golden opportunity in an 80-84 road loss to the Kansas Jayhawks Monday. They led by 14 with just under three minutes remaining, but somehow managed to blow the lead and eventually lost in overtime. Now they won't be able to get back up off the mat in time to beat a very good Texas Tech team by double-digits on Saturday, which is what they're being asked to do. The Red Raiders already beat the Mountaineers at home and could use another signature win here as they are squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament. The Red Raiders are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The road team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
Dave Price
Colorado vs. Oregon
Play: Oregon -11
This is a rare revenge spot for the Oregon Ducks, who lost 65-74 at Colorado on January 28th. But that was a big letdown spot for the Ducks, who were coming off a huge 73-67 road win at Utah two nights earlier. Look for the Buffaloes to have their full attention this time around. Colorado is starting to get some love from oddsmakers due to winning 6 of its last 7 coming in. But this run has come against the worst of the Pac-12 with five of the wins coming against Oregon State (twice), Stanford, Washington and Washington State. Their lone loss was an 11-point setback at California. Oregon is 16-0 at home this season and winning by 21.1 points per game. The Ducks have now won 41 straight home games. They beat Colorado by 20 at home last year after losing in Boulder in their first meeting. The Buffaloes are 0-7 ATS after allowing 25 points or less in the first half last game this season. The Buffaloes are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 road games. The Ducks are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games. The home team is 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
Matt Fargo
Illinois vs. Iowa
Play: Iowa -5
Making the NCAA Tournament is a pipe dream for both of these teams but getting hot at the right time to carry that into the conference tournament is still a hope. Iowa has lost two straight games to fall to 6-7 in the Big Ten but both of those were on the road where the Hawkeyes are 1-6 in the conference. Conversely, they are 5-1 at home in the Big Ten which includes solid wins over NCAA Tournament bound Michigan and Purdue. The lone loss came against Maryland where the Terrapins shot 56.6 percent where they had no chance. Illinois has lost seven of its last nine games and after starting 0-5 in the Big Ten on the road, the Illini pulled off a surprising upset over Northwestern two games back. They have been the typical team where they win the games they should and lose the games they should as they are 9-2 as favorites but just 4-9 as underdogs and after defeating Iowa at home by 12 as a five-point favorite, the Hawkeyes will be out to return the favor this Saturday. The Hawkeyes are 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 home games against teams with a road winning percentage of less than .400 while the Illini are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600.
Black Widow
South Florida vs. Tulane
Play: South Florida +5½
Bets on any team (South Florida) revenging a loss by 10 points or more against an opponent, a bad team winning 20% to 40% of their games against a terrible team that is winning 20% or less of their games are 24-3 ATS over the last 5 seasons. Tulane is coming off a near-upset of SMU last time out and will not be nearly as amped up to beat South Florida a second time this season. The Bulls are a live underdog here Saturday.
Tony George
Virginia Tech vs. Louisville
Play: Louisville -12½
The Cards roll here. VT off back to back big wins and they have some guys banged up here and are not a full strength. VT giving up 80 on the road this year, Cards scoring 80 at home and Cards are 13-5-1 ATS last 19 home games. The number is big for a reason here, looks like a take on the dog, but Louisville defense at home too much. Losing Chris Clark for VT a big hit in the backcourt.
Jack Jones
USC vs. UCLA
Play: USC +10
It's safe to say that the USC Trojans have had UCLA's number over the past couple seasons. Indeed, the Trojans are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. They have outscored the Bruins by a combined 65 points while covering the spread by 72.5 points in those four contests.
Now UCLA is being asked to lay double-digits against the Trojans Saturday, and that's simply too much. The Bruins are one of the best offensive teams in the nation, but they don't play a lick of defense, which will always keep the Trojans in this game.
It's worth noting that USC forward Bennie Boatwright didn't play in the first meeting this season, which the Trojans won 84-76 at home. Boatright (13.4 ppg, 4.3 rpg) has only played nine games all season, but he's back healthy now, making the Trojans even more dangerous than they already were. UCLA had a size advantage in the first meeting, but that won't be as big of an advantage in the rematch now with Boatright back.
The Trojans are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games as a road underdog of 7.0-12.5. The Bruins are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 Pac-12 games. UCLA is 1-6 ATS in its last seven home games. The Bruins are 1-8 ATS when revenging a loss vs. opponent this season.
Jesse Schule
Winnipeg vs Montreal
Play: Montreal -168
The Islanders fired head coach Jack Capuano back in January, and they have gone 9-3-2 under interim coach Doug Weight since. It's not uncommon for a team to turn things around after a coaching change, and the Habs will hope that Claude Julien can spark a similar turnaround in Montreal. Julien won a Stanley Cup with Boston in 2011, and this is his second stint as bench boss in Montreal. The Winnipeg Jets will visit the Bell Center on Saturday, and Winnipeg has lost six of it's last eight. The Jets are starting to look like they might be sellers at the trade deadline, as a playoff run is looking unlikely. Montreal has out-scored the Jets 8-1 in their last two visits to the Bell Center, and Winnipeg is just 4-12 in the last 16 meetings between the two teams. This is a huge game for the home team, playing their first game with a new head coach. It will be tough for the Jets to match the emotion that we can expect to see from the Habs players.
Braxton Myles
Colorado vs. Oregon
Play: Oregon -11
Oregon is a force right now in CBB beating great teams by big numbers. Oregon is an amazing 12-2 ATS in conference this season and with Colorado looking just pitiful in their last game against a terrible Oregon St. team, Oregon should run away with this game early. Oregon has dominated this series in the last 3 seasons going 2-0 ATS when the games are played at home and 4-1 ATS in the series when played at home. If it wasn't looking good for Colorado in this one to begin with they have one of their better players listed as probable for this game which could hurt them tremendously!
Marc Lawrence
Texas Tech vs. West Virginia
Play: West Virginia -11
Edges - Mountaineers: 10-1 ATS home with revenge; and 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in this series… Red Raiders: 7-19 SUATS following Baylor, including 1-6-1 ATS versus avenging foes; and 2-8 SU and 3-7 ATS away before facing Iowa State. With WVU looking to avenge one-point loss as a road favorite at Texas Tech in early January, we recommend a 1* play on West Virginia.
Sean Murphy
Edmonton vs Chicago
Play: Chicago -142
There's always going to be some uncertainty surrounding teams following their 'bye week' and the Blackhawks are coming off just such a break here on Saturday. In fact, the last time the 'Hawks took the ice they skated to a 5-1 win over the Oilers in Edmonton last Saturday night. I'm confident we'll see them prevail again in this spot.
Edmonton is coming off back-to-back wins at home against the Coyotes and Flyers. The Oilers have impressed all season, including on the road where they've managed to post a winning record. With that being said, their most recent trip resulted in a 1-2 ledger, scoring just one goal in the process.
The Blackhawks have simply dominated the Oilers here at home over the years. They've held a strong home ice advantage this season as well, having gone 18-11. Look for them to come up with another big effort here.
Mike Anthony
Texas Tech vs. West Virginia
Play: West Virginia -11.5
The athleticism of Jevon Carteris almost unmatched. The Jr Guard may end up with a quiet 12-16 with whoever is guarding him, and they will try to force him to make tough shots, but his improved skills, and very limited diminishing ones, will not be denied. Anthony Livingston hasn't gone strong enough to the basket, and the Texas Tech team, as a whole, have had some problems with scoring from inside the paint, matched up vs this West Virginia team wont get any easier. As they have a very long and athletic frontcourt. West Virginia wins by 22 points