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(@shazman)
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Friday 3/18/22 thread for handicapping service plays and expert predictions for NCAAB, NBA & NHL games

 
Posted : March 17, 2022 9:53 pm
(@shazman)
Posts: 57388
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Kevin Thomas
15/-110 Delaware
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Mike Anthony
16.5/-110 Yale
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RAS

1H Jacksonville St./Auburn UNDER 65.5
Yale/Providence OVER 141.5
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Big Al
1* Purdue -16, 2:00 pm
1* USC -1.5, 3:10 pm
1* Texas PK, 4:30 pm
1* Duke -18.5, 7:10 pm
1* Iowa St. +4.5, 7:20 pm
1* Davidson +1.5, 9:40 pm
1* Wisconsin -7.5, 9:50 pm....1st round GOY .....a big fat 1*
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Ben Burns

1st RD GOY

Texas
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Champ NBA system bet(s):

(March 18) LA Lakers {A} bet - This is an official series. Buy 3 points on the spread at no worse than -170 odds if they are underdogs. Take the money line if they're favorites. If the {A} bet does not win, please use the same rules and double up on the {B} bet by taking them again on 3/19. The potential {C} bet is on 3/21.
(March 18) Bulls {C} bet - This is an official series. Buy 3 points on the spread at no worse than -170 odds if they are underdogs. Take the money line if they're favorites. This is the final bet of the series.
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SYSTEM LOCKS

Chicago Bulls
loyola Chicago
Purdue
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Posted : March 18, 2022 8:48 am
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Posts: 57388
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Max Gorenstein

COLGATE @ WISCONSIN | 03/18 | 9:50 PM EDT
COLGATE +7.5
ANALYSIS: The Badgers are an overrated three seed. They have struggled against worse opponents as they cannot put teams away. The Raiders are rolling as they have won 19 of their last 20 games. They are one of the best three point shooting teams in the country as they shoot 40.3 percent from downtown. The Raiders are a very balanced team as all five of their starters averaged double digit points per game. This is too many points for the Badgers to be laying. Take the points.

MIAMI (FLA.) @ USC | 03/18 | 3:10 PM EDT
USC -1.5
ANALYSIS: The biggest difference in this matchup is hight/rebounding. Four of the Trojans five starters are at least 6’9” and this has allowed them to be a great rebounding team. The Hurricanes start four guards and they are terrible on the glass. They are in the bottom 15 percent of Division I in rebounding rate. The Trojans will be able to get second chance points all game and easily take this game.

CHATTANOOGA @ ILLINOIS | 03/18 | 6:50 PM EDT
CHATTANOOGA +7.5
ANALYSIS: As the end of the season was coming, my view on the Illini has changed. They have glaring weaknesses that the Hoosiers showed to the world. The Mocs should be able to replicate what the Hoosiers did. The Mocs are very talented. Malachi Smith and David Jean-Baptiste will be the two best pure scorers on the court. They also have Kansas transfer, Silvio De Sousa, who is great defensively and should clog the paint to slow down Kofi Cockburn. The Mocs have very good free throw shooters which will help coming down the stretch. This game has upset written all over it but I am taking the points for safety.

+80 5-4 IN LAST 9 CBB PICKS
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Larry Hartstein

VA. TECH @ TEXAS | 03/18 | 4:30 PM EDT
VA. TECH +1
ANALYSIS: Chris Beard is an elite coach and the Longhorns play stifling defense, but offense continues to be a struggle. They put up 61, 63 and 60 points in losing their last three games, and they haven't covered any of their last six. Virginia Tech has won 13 of its last 15, closing with double-digit victories over North Carolina and Duke. While the Longhorns own a size advantage, the Hokies are extremely dangerous from beyond the arc (ACC-best 39.3 percent). They're 18th in overall offensive efficiency, per KenPom. Back the Hokies to improve to 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 vs. winning teams.

LOYOLA CHI. @ OHIO ST. | 03/18 | 12:15 PM EDT
LOYOLA CHI. PK
ANALYSIS: Ohio State lost four of its last five games, and three of those four defeats came to non-tournament teams Maryland, Nebraska and Penn State. Fifth-year senior forward Kyle Young missed the last two regular-season games and the Big Ten Tournament because he's in the concussion protocol. His status for Friday's game remains unclear. Loyola Chicago is peaking, having dominated the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament while allowing an average of 50.3 points. Look for Lucas Williamson (14.0 ppg) and Ohio native Braden Norris (10.3 ppg, 3.9 apg) to lift the Ramblers into the Round of 32.

TCU @ SETON HALL | 03/18 | 9:57 PM EDT
TCU +1
ANALYSIS: Kevin Willard's name being linked to the Maryland opening can't be a good thing for Seton Hall leading into this matchup. Seton Hall is strong inside, but the Horned Frogs are just as good there, ranking second nationally in offensive rebounding. In their final six games, they beat Kansas, Texas Tech and Texas. Mike Miles is a special guard who lit up the Red Raiders -- the nation's top defensive team -- for 26 points on 10-of-15 shooting. While Jared Rhoden will get his, I like Jamie Dixon's team to improve to 12-4-1 ATS in its last 17 as a dog.

DAVIDSON @ MICHIGAN ST. | 03/18 | 9:40 PM EDT
DAVIDSON +1.5
ANALYSIS: Point guard Foster Loyer transferred to Davidson after Tom Izzo brought in Tyson Walker to replace him. Now Loyer (16.3 ppg, 3.3 apg) leads a Wildcats team that shoots 47.7 percent overall and 38.4 percent from deep (8th nationally). He'll be plenty motivated to face the Spartans. MSU could be without Walker, who sprained his ankle Saturday. Michigan State's other point guard, A.J. Hoggard, will play but also is dinged up. Back the Wildcats to improve to 6-1 ATS in their last seven at neutral sites.

+2261 71-44-3 IN LAST 118 CBB ATS PICKS
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Larry Hartstein

VCU @ WAKE FOREST | 03/19 | 4:00 PM EDT
VCU +5
ANALYSIS: VCU cranked up its attack in the first round of the NIT, shooting 58 percent in a 90-79 win over Princeton, and the Rams should keep it going at Wake Forest on Saturday. The Demon Deacons are susceptible to turnovers (13.7 per game) and that could mean extra possessions for VCU, which forces a whopping 17.1 turnovers per game (7th nationally). VCU relishes the underdog role (9-2 ATS). Grab the points.

TROY @ ABILENE CHR. | 03/20 | 7:30 PM EDT
ABILENE CHR. -4
ANALYSIS: The Wildcats will have had plenty of time to get over losing the WAC Tournament final when they open play in the CBI versus Troy. Abilene Christian won 12 of its last 15 games, and boasts a resume that includes a dominant win over Longwood and a 1-point loss to Texas A&M. The Wildcats are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games as a neutral-site favorite. Troy ended the season on a 4-4 SU, 2-6 ATS run. The Trojans shoot just 42.4 percent and commit over 15 turnovers per game. Lay the points.

MIAMI (FLA.) @ USC | 03/18 | 3:10 PM EDT
USC -1.5
ANALYSIS: USC went 9-4 down the stretch, with all four losses coming to Arizona or UCLA -- no shame in that. The Trojans are terrific on the glass and should get second chances against a Miami team that ranks 267th in giving up offensive rebounds. Look for the Trojans' length to disrupt the Hurricanes' scorers and for USC to improve to 8-1 ATS in its last nine NCAA Tournament games.

+2202 77-50-3 IN LAST 130 CBB ATS PICKS
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Matt Severance

LOYOLA CHI. @ OHIO ST. | 03/18 | 12:15 PM EDT
OHIO ST. PK
ANALYSIS: Most computer rankings have Loyola as the better team, and there’s no question the Ramblers could pull the upset Friday. But this Loyola team is nowhere near as good as the 2021 or 2018 clubs – sorry, Sister Jean – and has just one victory over a team that reached the 2022 NCAA Tournament. The Buckeyes lost four of their final five games but will have easily the best player on the floor in EJ Liddell (19.6 ppg, 7.9 rpg), and Coach Chris Holtmann says his team should be at full strength for the first time in weeks with Meechie Johnson, Kyle Young and Zed Key all expected to play off injury. Playing in Pittsburgh should mean a massive pro-OSU crowd.

+1730 90-66-4 IN LAST 160 CBB ATS PICKS
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Micah Roberts

JAX. STATE @ AUBURN | 03/18 | 12:40 PM EDT
JAX. STATE +15.5
ANALYSIS: Auburn is just 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games and looks ripe for an upset. Jacksonville State might be a team that can beat them outright because the Gamecocks shoot 47 percent from the field and 39.8 percent from 3-point range, which ranks second in the nation. Take the points with Jacksonville.

YALE @ PURDUE | 03/18 | 2:00 PM EDT
UNDER 144.5
ANALYSIS: Yale turned up the defense to close out the season, which kept its last five games Under the total, winning four of those games and winning the Ivy League Tournament. Purdue has also been playing great defense lately with a sputtering offense that has scored in the 60s in five of its last six, which has kept five of its last six Under. This number is eight points too high. Under is the play.

+1366 36-20 IN LAST 56 CBB PICKS
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World Worst Picker
Ohio state
virginia tech
Usc
Uab

We take:
Loyola Chicago
Texas
Miami
Houston
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Posted : March 18, 2022 9:39 am
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Anthony Stalter

Loyola
__________________

Arthur Ralph

Super Pick
TCU

Blue Ribbons
Loy Chi
UAB
VT
TCU Over

Free Play - Purdue
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Ziti sports
NHL
Philadelphia Flyers vs. Ottawa Senators OVER 6.5 +100 (7:05 PM)

COLLEGE HOOPS
Illinois -8 -110 Chattanooga Mocs (6:50 PM)
Duke - 18.5 -110 CS Fullerton (7:10 PM)
Yale vs Purdue OVER 144 -110 (2:00 PM)
Iowa State vs. LSU OVER 128 -110 (7:20 PM)

NBA
Dallas Mavericks vs Philadelphia 76ers UNDER 218.5 -110 (7:10 PM)
New York Knicks -6 -110 Washington Wizards (7:40 PM)
Los Angeles Clippers vs Utah Jazz UNDER 215 -110 (9:10 PM)

SOCCER UNDER SYSTEM

Germany - Bundesliga- Bochum vs. Borussia Monchengladbach UNDER 2.5 +117 (3:30 PM)

Portugal - Primeira Liga- FC Vizela vs. FC Famalicao UNDER 2.5 -136 (4:15 PM)

SOCCER OVER SYSTEM

Ireland - Division 1- Treaty United vs. Cork City OVER 2 -138 (11:00 AM)

Hungary - NB 1- Ferencvarosi TC vs. Mezokovesd Zsory SE OVER 2.5 -121 (3:00 PM)
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PickersMx

La Barba 200 Dimes Purdue -16

Mushu 150 Dimes Colgate Raiders +7.5

Lady Pickers 100 Dimes Over 156 Wright state vs Arizona

Lady Pickers 200 Dimes Duke-18

La Barba 150 Dimes Houston Cougars -8
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Greg Peterson

Davidson vs Michigan State Under 141

LSU -4 vs Iowa State

Chattanooga +8 vs Illinois

Alabama -4 vs Notre Dame

Seton Hall PK vs TCU

Updated Record 325-277-14
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VSiN Hosts & Guests

The Lookahead
Scott Seidenberg
Knicks -5 vs Wizards

Matt Youmans
Chattanooga +8 vs Illinois
Colgate +7.5 vs Wisconsin
Notre Dame +4 vs Alabama
Texas pick vs Virginia Tech
Saint Mary's +3 vs UCLA
Saint Peter's +8 vs Murray State

Tim Murray
UAB +8.5 vs Houston
Loyola Chicago PK vs Ohio State

Mitch Moss
Loyola Chicago-Ohio State 1st Score a Three (+195)

Bruce Marshall
Virginia Tech -.5 vs Texas
Iowa State - LSU Under 123.5
Miami +2.5 vs USC
Notre Dame +4 vs Alabama
Chattanooga +8.5 vs Illinois
Montana State +15 vs Texas Tech

A Numbers Game
Dr. Bob Stoll
Wisconsin -7 v Colgate
Purdue -16.5 v Yale
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Root

Contrarian— Virginia Tech +1
Chairman — Alabama -4
Reserve— Jacksonville St +15.5
Gold Standard— Davidson +1.5
Pinnacle— Tenn. Chattanooga +8
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kelso

personal best
50 raptors

best bets
25 wisky
15 loyola chiicago
15 houston
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Posted : March 18, 2022 10:33 am
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OSKEIM SPORT

TCU -102 4 units
Notre Dame 4 1 units
Davidson 1 4 units
Purdue -16.5 4 units
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TMT Sports CBB
(CBB Yesterday 3-1) (+$5,600) (75%)
(March Madness 6-2) (+$11,400) (75%)

2k Auburn -15.5 (12:40 pm)
2k USC -2 (3:10 pm)
2k Houston -8.5 (9:20pm)
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TMT Sports POD
(March POD Record 13-3-1) (81%)
(Play of The Day 82-46) (64%)

POD - 25k NBA TOTAL - San Antonio Over 237
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Pure Lock

10* Jacksonville State +15.5
10* Ottawa Senators -118
10* SA Spurs -3
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XS Sports Picks

NBA: YTD 172-118 +$139,850 (+1398.50 units)

3* chicago +5.5 (10pm)
3* atlanta over 237 (7:30pm)
5* brooklyn -14 (7:30pm)
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jack jones
20
alabama
15
miami
purdue
chattanooga
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stephen nover

purdue
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jim feist

15* lsu
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ricky tran
notre dame
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XS Sports Picks

NCAA BK: Yesterday 5-0 +$19,000
March Madness 17-12 +$31,700

5* Ohio State +1.5
5* Michigan State -1
5* Purdue Over 144
5* Texas -1
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World Worst Picker
Ohio state
virginia tech
Usc
Uab

We take:
Loyola Chicago
Texas
Miami
Houston
ADDED
He takes - Montana ST, Alabama

We take - Texas Tech, Notre Dame
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XS Sports Picks NHL

YTD 1156-136 +$90,240 (+902.40 UNITS)

3* Boston-115
3* Boston Over 6
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Posted : March 18, 2022 11:15 am
(@shazman)
Posts: 57388
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Bob Balfe:

12:15 PM EST
Ohio State -0.5 over Loyola Chicago
Sister Jean stole the show a few years ago, but this is Loyola Chicago’s least talented team compared to the two seasons they shocked the NCAA Tournament. Ohio State has better athletes, and even though their defense is shaky, their offense is good enough to get by for today. Take Ohio State.

3:10 PM EST
Miami +2.5 over USC
The ACC has not been the best conference this year, but neither has the PAC 12. Miami brought in a ton of transfers, beat great teams, and have been great on the road. This team protects the ball and has a great chance to move on to next week. USC has a lot of talent, but their inability to defend the three-point line will haunt them. Take Miami.

7:20 PM EST
LSU -4 over Iowa State
Iowa State won only two games last year, lost their coach and all their experienced players. Winning 7 games in the BIG 12 was impressive, but I don’t think they are ready to win tournament games. LSU will be without head coach Will Wade , but that might help this group of guys play loose. The LSU defense should be too much for Iowa State tonight. Take LSU.

9:40 PM EST
Davidson/Michigan State Over 141
The 2021 Spartans were not the best Tom Izzo team, as they finished poorly at the end of the year. Davidson is a bad defensive team, so the Spartans being the more athletic unit, should get by, but Davidson will hit their three-point shots and make this an enjoyable night. Bob McKillop is a great coach that will tap into what their team has done best all year. Look for a shootout. Take the Over.
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Godfatherlocks

massive 10k unit picks
#1 - ohio state buckeyes +1
#2 - texas longhorns -1.5
#3 - seton hall pirates -1

huge 5k unit picks
#1 - notre dame fighting irish +4
#2 - uab blazers +8.5
#3 - davidson wildcats +1
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Strike Point Sports
College Basketball

3u Loyola-Chicago PK
8u GOY Michigan State -1
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SPORTS BANK

500* Chattanooga
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Insider Sports Report

4 VaTech
3 Aubie
3 Houston
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Dave Essler

3* GOM

UAB +8.5
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Max Gorenstein

VA. TECH @ TEXAS | 03/18 | 4:30 PM EDT
VA. TECH 110
ANALYSIS: Fading the Longhorns here. They are playing terrible right now. They are 0-6 ATS in their last six games. The Hokies, on the other hand, are rolling. They won the ACC tournament beating three NCAA Tournament teams in consecutive days. The Hokies are peaking at the right time. They are a very dangerous 11 seed. This spread is where it is for a reason. Take the Hokies.

LOYOLA CHI. @ OHIO ST. | 03/18 | 12:15 PM EDT
LOYOLA CHI. PK
ANALYSIS: The Ramblers finally found their groove in the MVC tournament. They were spectacular defensively as they allowed just 50.3 PPG in the tournament. The Buckeyes are in a free fall as they are 1-4 SU and ATS in their last four games, with three of those losses coming against bad teams (Maryland, Nebraska, Penn St.). The Ramblers defense should rattle the Buckeyes are carry Loyola to the Round of 32.

+170 5-3 IN LAST 8 CBB ATS PICKS
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Tim Doyle

LOYOLA CHI. @ OHIO ST. | 03/18 | 12:15 PM EDT
LOYOLA CHI. PK
ANALYSIS: The Missouri Valley Conference is 12-1 over the last 10 years in first-round games of the NCAA Tournament. I’ve called six Ramblers games this season, and they can beat any team on any given night. Plus, it’s Sister Jean. We need more of her!

TCU @ SETON HALL | 03/18 | 9:57 PM EDT
TCU +1
ANALYSIS: I called two TCU games over the Thanksgiving holiday in San Diego, including the one in which it got destroyed by Santa Clara. I never would have believed this is an NCAA Tournament team. But that's how great a coach Jamie Dixon is. The Horned Frogs are back in San Diego for a late tip against a Seton Hall team that will have to adjust to time change, weather change and having traveled across the country.

VA. TECH @ TEXAS | 03/18 | 4:30 PM EDT
TEXAS -1
ANALYSIS: The Hokies were great in Brooklyn, but I’m concerned that the ACC championship took everything out of them. Players were crying, fans were crying, emotions were high. It's hard to start that up again. Texas coach Chris Beard will have his team laser-focused and locked into its defensive assignment - something UNC and Duke didn’t do in the 718.

DAVIDSON @ MICHIGAN ST. | 03/18 | 9:40 PM EDT
DAVIDSON +1
ANALYSIS: Davidson coach Bob McKillop used to be my next-door neighbor and coached my brother in high school. He loves the balance of this Wildcats squad, as well as the experience. Davidson G Foster Loyer gets revenge against his old coach, Tom Izzo.

UAB @ HOUSTON | 03/18 | 9:20 PM EDT
UAB +8.5
ANALYSIS: UAB head coach Andy Kennedy has done an outstanding job turning around his alma mater. The Blazers led Conference USA in scoring, and I believe they have too much firepower for a Houston team that lacks quality victories. UAB wins this matchup.

+290 4-1 IN LAST 5 CBB PICKS
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Justin Perri

JAX. STATE @ AUBURN | 03/18 | 12:40 PM EDT
JAX. STATE +15.5
ANALYSIS: I've watched a good deal of Auburn ball this season, they are not the same when away from their home court. Haslametrics has Auburn as the 332nd best road team and Jacksonville St as 12th! Love that stat. I had this pick long before Kentucky got dropped by fellow 2-seed St Peters, but if that doesn't show you how wide open these games are, I don't know what will. Jax saw Alabama, Wichita and VCU this season in the non-conference, which helps a lot. They're also one of the oldest teams in D1 compared to Auburn being one of the youngest, I like that, the tournament takes composure and maturity. I'll take the points against an Auburn team that has yet to win by this amount on the road all year!

LOYOLA CHI. @ OHIO ST. | 03/18 | 12:15 PM EDT
LOYOLA CHI. PK
ANALYSIS: Did I get +1 on Sunday night? Yes. Does that push condition really make a difference? A small one, yes, but I have Loyola notching a win for my bracket here so I'm comfortable with the pick'em. We saw 4 & 5 seeds like UConn, Arkansas, UCLA, Iowa and even Providence get a scare or more (RIP Huskies and Hawkeyes) from worrisome 12 & 13 seeds yesterday. I don't think that stops, these double digit seeds are good and I project Ohio State will be the next blue blood to struggle against a Mid Major. They've been tough to back all season and if E.J. Liddell doesn't have a great game today, then his 30% usage rate will backfire heavily. Loyola has a massive edge on defense as well, which matters most in March. Back the fighting Sister Jeans... that's their mascot, right??

UAB @ HOUSTON | 03/18 | 9:20 PM EDT
UAB +8.5
ANALYSIS: There's going to be a big trend here with my first round picks. We will be taking the points more often than not. UAB is a top 50 team this season and should not be getting 8.5. They have a great offense and are one of the best three point teams in the country. Shooting matters and translates. I think Houston is going to be riding high off the Memphis win and potentially be a bit surprised by a the firepower of the Dragons. This one probably boils down to the Cougars playing to keep their season alive rather than cruising to a three possession win. Take the points.

+527 24-17 IN LAST 41 CBB ATS PICKS
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Kenny White

LOYOLA CHI. @ OHIO ST. | 03/18 | 12:15 PM EDT
OHIO ST. PK
ANALYSIS: The Buckeyes will have a big home advantage, with Pittsburgh just three hours away from the Ohio State campus. Loyola Chicago hasn't played in 12 days and could be a little rusty. Plus, the Ramblers aren't coached by Porter Moser anymore; this will be Drew Valentine's first NCAA Tournament game as a head coach. Ohio State was upset last year by Oral Roberts in the first round. The Buckeyes did not end the year very well, but that doesn't matter now. I'm sure this will be a very focused Ohio State team. Buckeyes cover.

JAX. STATE @ AUBURN | 03/18 | 12:40 PM EDT
JAX. STATE +15.5
ANALYSIS: Jacksonville State is playing with house money. Atlantic Sun tournament champ Bellarmine was not eligible to play in the NCAA Tournament, shifting the automatic bid back to the regular season champ, Jacksonville State. Auburn was great at home (13-3 against-the-spread) but had a losing ATS record away from home.

+190 3-1 IN LAST 4 CBB ATS PICKS
__________________

Delphi Sports

NBA
3* #564 NY Knicks -5.5
__________________

 
Posted : March 18, 2022 11:43 am
(@shazman)
Posts: 57388
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Topic starter
 

Mario Rojas

757 Jacksonville St. over 139
759 Iowa St +4
778 Texas Tech over 131.5
757 Jacksonville St. +15
766 Yale +16.5
__________________

August Young

hockey

3 Ottawa -140
__________________

IC

5* LSU -3.5
5* AZ -21.5
__________________

Scott Spreitzer

5* WI -7.5
3* Ottawa -140
3* IA St +4
2* USC -2
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Chip Patterson

DAVIDSON @ MICHIGAN ST. | 03/18 | 9:40 PM EDT
DAVIDSON +1
ANALYSIS: All the excitement about a possible Coach K-Tom Izzo matchup in the second round ignores a Davidson team given a coin-flip chance to beat Michigan State on Friday night. The Wildcats beat Alabama earlier this season so there's no surprise in squaring off against a team of Michigan State's caliber, and Bob McKillop's patient offensive attack will test a Sparty defense that rates as one of the worst in the Tom Izzo era in terms of efficiency.

IOWA ST. @ LSU | 03/18 | 7:20 PM EDT
IOWA ST. +4
ANALYSIS: The more I dig on this game the better I like the chances of it being decided on the final possession, so there's plenty of value on the underdog. Both teams have top-10 defensive efficiency ratings at KenPom and while Iowa State buckled a little bit in February and March losing 7 of 11, LSU did just fire its coach. Acknowledging Wade's absence is priced in, the edge really comes from Iowa State having the best player on the floor in Izaiah Brockington. The first team All-Big 12 selection and Big 12 Newcomer of the Year is the one player I trust to be able to get buckets or create offense in those tense final possessions between two good defensive teams.

CHATTANOOGA @ ILLINOIS | 03/18 | 6:50 PM EDT
CHATTANOOGA +8
ANALYSIS: The matchup of Illinois' Kofi Cockburn and Chattanooga's Sylvio De Sousa is a grown man's battle in the post. It's an edge to Cockburn, for sure, but the Mocs at least have enough team size to scheme up a way to make things difficult for the Illinois big man. The Fighting Illini have good wins late in the year even with some injury issues, but what they don't have is a win by eight points or more since Feb. 5. It's not a team I can trust to put the underdog away, and the Mocs are good enough to hang around.

MIAMI (FLA.) @ USC | 03/18 | 3:10 PM EDT
MIAMI (FLA.) +2.5
ANALYSIS: USC's form tailed off in the final six or seven weeks of the season. Andy Enfield's team was still playing winning basketball, but that could also be a result of a down Pac-12 that only sent three teams to the tournament. The efficiency numbers dropped, there were close calls against bad teams and I think it sets up for a short stay in the Big Dance, especially against a Miami team that has a high end offensive ceiling with Charlie Moore, Isaiah Wong and Kam McGusty.

JAX. STATE @ AUBURN | 03/18 | 12:40 PM EDT
JAX. STATE +15.5
ANALYSIS: Jacksonville State is a plus-value team a top-10 three-point percentage in the country at 38.2% and a slow pace that clashes with how Auburn likes to play. Though coming from an Atlantic Sun Conference that rates in the bottom half of Division I, the Gamecocks tested themselves in the non-conference schedule in a way that should prepare them for this tough matchup. Jacksonville State played Alabama, VCU and Wichita State — all top-100 teams at KenPom — and the Crimson Tide loss was by just six. I don’t think we’ll see another 15-over-2 on Friday but Jacksonville State is good enough to make this interesting.

+180 4-2 IN LAST 6 CBB PICKS
__________________

Justin Perri

TCU @ SETON HALL | 03/18 | 9:57 PM EDT
TCU +1.5
ANALYSIS: I have said it for most of the season, Seton Hall is a fraud. I am sticking with it and fading the Pirates. TCU is the best offensive rebounding team in the country and is going to be a problem for Seton inside. I have TCU winning the game so getting the +1.5 is a nice boost here. You never know in March.

COLGATE @ WISCONSIN | 03/18 | 9:50 PM EDT
COLGATE +7.5
ANALYSIS: Colgate is a legit basketball program that plays out of a weak Patriot conference. We have seen that some of these teams that are exceptions to a bad conference succeed already. Murray and Vermont both covered their lines coming from a similar position. I think we get the same thing here with Colgate. Shooting translates and the raiders have the 11th best effective FG% in the country. They also have the 6th best Assist/Field Goal Made rate. I think they should be able to find good looks and keep it within two possessions against Wisconsin. This Badgers team let lesser opponents hang around all season, I think it happens again. Take the points.

IOWA ST. @ LSU | 03/18 | 7:20 PM EDT
IOWA ST. +4
ANALYSIS: With both these teams ranking in the top 10 of defensive efficiency I immediately lean towards the four points have more value than anticipated because the game is likely to be a bit slower. ISU is 8-5 ATS as a road underdog and LSU is 3-5 ATS as a road favorite. This should be a battle and I'll grab the side with the free possession. LSU is a bit inexperienced too and young teams sometimes struggle in March. Here's an extra nugget; when the spread is +2 to +6 Iowa State is 6-1 ATS, and LSU has never won a spread when favored by between 2 and 6. Let's go Cyclones!

CS FULLERTON @ DUKE | 03/18 | 7:10 PM EDT
DUKE -18.5
ANALYSIS: I really hope I don't get Gonzaga-ed on this one like yesterday, but the right call in this Duke game is laying the points. I've paid attention to this Cal. St. Fullerton team and they are not ready to hang with Duke. This is a true 15 seed for the Blue Devils out of the Big West. I think we see them show up after failing to beat VT. This is one of the few favorites I'm taking so that should show you the confidence I have in a bounce back for Coach K as he looks to make a statement in the opening round of his last dance.

CHATTANOOGA @ ILLINOIS | 03/18 | 6:50 PM EDT
CHATTANOOGA +8
ANALYSIS: I'm taking Chattanooga for a plethora of reasons. They are an effective mid-range team that does not depend on close shots to effectively score. This is huge when playing against a player like Kofi Cockburn. The Mocs also lock down the three point line. They should be able to limit the damage from deep and force Illinois to score at a slower pace because of it. The Mocs are talented at getting shots off and finding good looks, their style leads to consistent basketball and Illinois has struggle to string together good performances this season. I think the focus for the Illini will be to advance and we will get the +8 cover.

VA. TECH @ TEXAS | 03/18 | 4:30 PM EDT
TEXAS -127
ANALYSIS: I have gone back and forth on this game so much. It's hard to gauge the Big 12 right now because Kansas and Baylor both got teams that looked like true 16-seeds. Today we see the other four teams from this conference play. This is more about evaluating Va. Tech and if their win over Duke and run to the ACC trophy means enough to give them the respect of this line. I tend to think it does not. Texas has elite talent, and wins over some of the best programs in basketball in what I consider the toughest conference in the country. I think they get out of the first round, I'm laying the price to get the ML for this one. Texas advances.

MIAMI (FLA.) @ USC | 03/18 | 3:10 PM EDT
MIAMI (FLA.) +2.5
ANALYSIS: This line is inflating a bit past what I am comfortable with, I almost took it at +1.5 so I think I need to take it here. I do not think this Pac-12 is all that strong this year and if North Carolina is any type of sign about the ACC, I think USC might just be in trouble today. UCLA almost lost to Akron and the Trojans split with the Bruins this season. Not the best sign for USC. Miami has road wins against Duke, VT, Cuse and Wake Forest, they do not turn the ball over extraneously and are a top 20 offensive unit. I know Andy Enfield made that run with FGCU but Shaka Smart made a run once too, look at how his teams have done recently. I just think the basketball players are better on Miami and have more experience for this type of game. Take Miami +2.5 and lets see if the ACC is legit.

NOTRE DAME @ ALABAMA | 03/18 | 4:15 PM EDT
NOTRE DAME +4
ANALYSIS: Gimme the points!! Alabama has been so fickle this season, losing to teams you'd expect them to beat and then beating the teams they maybe have no business winning against. That's college basketball, especially March Madness, in a nutshell. However, this Notre Dame team has one thing Alabama doesn't right now and that's momentum. ND played an incredible game against Rutgers, simply incredible. I think I'd have Rutgers covering this matchup as well if they were the victorious side. Two days of rest is plenty for these kids who are living their dreams playing in the NCAA Tournament. They know what works and have some serious shot makers. Maybe we get a bit more luck of the Irish, I have them winning the game for my bracket so let's Notre Dame.

DELAWARE @ VILLANOVA | 03/18 | 2:45 PM EDT
DELAWARE +15.5
ANALYSIS: Nova is my who I chose for my bracket's champion, but I'll still take the points against them here. Delaware has talent and size, plus the Big East hasn't looked all that great. Marquette got dominated, UConn lost and Creighton was forced to battle it out with a Mountain West team, which might be the only conference that looks worse. Big Ten also not doing great but we'll talk about that another time. Nonetheless, I'm taking these points. Jameer Nelson Jr. might just go ahead and follow in his dad's footsteps, even if he doesn't, I still think this one is more competitive than people expect.

+527 24-17 IN LAST 41 CBB ATS PICKS
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Posted : March 18, 2022 12:29 pm
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