Monday 4/5/21 free thread for handicapping and expert predictions for NBA, MLB & NCAAB games.
Josh Nagel
BAYLOR @ GONZAGA | 04/04 | 9:29 PM EDT
GONZAGA -4.5
ANALYSIS: It's probably fitting that the most bizarre season in college basketball history gave us a perplexing penultimate act in the Final Four that saw the most competitive game on paper turn into a blowout early and one of the most dominant teams in recent memory was nearly sent home by a No. 11 seed that played in the First Four. Gonzaga sprained an ankle Saturday while finishing its lap around the field but should suck it up and come across the finish line with its first title Monday night. It's hard to imagine an NCAA Tournament with a finish like Saturday's not ending with the Zags completing the job.
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Matt Severance
SEVERANCE PAYS
BAYLOR @ GONZAGA | 04/04 | 9:29 PM EDT
BAYLOR +4.5
ANALYSIS: What a great matchup, just the ninth time that two No. 1 seeds meet in the title game – the schools were supposed to play Dec. 5 also in Indianapolis, but it was canceled due to COVID. The preseason No. 1 vs. the preseason No. 2 in the AP Top 25 and the best two-point shooting team in the nation (Gonzaga) vs. the best three-point shooting team (Baylor). I don’t want to overreact to Gonzaga being pushed to the absolute limit in the Zags’ thrilling Final Four overtime win over 11th-seeded UCLA, but perhaps the Bruins did provide a roadmap to beat this amazing team. There’s also the fact Gonzaga might be a bit physically and emotionally drained following that victory, while Baylor barely broke a sweat in its rout of Houston. I have to go with the team that played the much tougher schedule and that’s Baylor, which is 6-0 against AP Top 10 teams.
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Stephen Oh
DATA SCIENTIST
OTTAWA @ WINNIPEG | 04/05 | 7:00 PM EDT
WINNIPEG -200
ANALYSIS: My model says the Jets win in almost 70 percent of the simulations, so you're getting excellent value at this number. Winnipeg is ready to bust out offensively after being held to one goal in each of its back-to-back losses against Toronto last week. The Jets won four of their previous five meetings with the Senators this season, scoring at least four goals in each victory. Expect another impressive showing from Winnipeg.
MINNESOTA -140
ANALYSIS: My model says the Twins win in almost 70 percent of the simulations, so you're getting strong value at this number. Minnesota answered an extra-inning loss to Milwaukee in its season opener with a pair of wins in which it outscored the Brewers 10-2. After losing the first three meetings between the AL Central rivals last season, the Twins won six of their final seven contests against the Tigers. On Monday, they'll be facing RHP Jose Urena, who went 13-25 with a 4.47 ERA in 60 games (49 starts) over the last three seasons with Miami. Take the Twins, who are averaging five runs per game.
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Kyle Hunter
under Baylor/Gozaga 160.5
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Thom Cunningham - Vegasinsider
CBB - Best Bet - Baylor +5
CBB Tournament Totals Club - Best Bet - Gonzaga/Baylor Over 159
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Spartan
3* Gonzaga -4.5
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RALPH MICHAELS
Game: (811) Baylor at (812) Gonzaga
Date/Time: Apr 5 2021 9:20 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 5%
Play: 1H Total Under 76.0 (-110)
FIRST HALF 5% UNDER 76
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EdwardMLB
San Diego Padres -1.5
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Jonathan Willis
Vegasinsider NBA
Utah Jazz vs Dallas Mavericks
TV: NBA League Pass - Time 7:10pm
Best Bet - Utah Jazz/Dallas Mavericks Under 225
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Tim Wilkinson
Vegasinsider NBA
Utah Jazz vs Dallas Mavericks
TV: NBA League Pass - Time: 7:10pm
Best Bet - Utah Jazz -3.5
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Pickswise Sports
CBB
2* Baylor +5
2* Baylor/Gonzaga Over 159
NHL
3* Best Bet - Vegas Golden Knights -135
MLB
3* Best Bet - New York Yankees -1.5 runs (-120)
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The Sports Geek
CBB - Gonzaga -4.5
NBA - Detroit Pistons -3
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INSIDER SPORTS REPORT
Premier Picks® For 04/05/21
4* Chicago White Sox (Rodon) -115 over Seattle (Sheffield)
Range: +100 to -140
3* Baylor/Gonzaga UNDER 159.5 (NCAAB)
Range: 161 to 157
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Mike McClure
KANSAS CITY @ CLEVELAND | 04/05 | 4:10 PM EDT
CLEVELAND -111
ANALYSIS: The Indians are undervalued again in another matchup with a left-handed pitcher. I have the Indians winning 56 percent of simulations against Danny Duffy and the Royals, suggesting this line should be closer to -127.
HOUSTON @ L.A. ANGELS | 04/05 | 9:38 PM EDT
HOUSTON +105
ANALYSIS: I'm grabbing the Astros now at +105 as I have them winning 53 percent of simulations with Ohtani in the lineup, and 56 percent without. I'm projecting Ohtani to get the day off after his nasty fall at the home plate and pitching last night. His left-handed bat makes a massive 15 cent difference in the line against a right-handed pitcher. This Astros lineup hits left-handed pitching well, and Luis Garcia will now face just two left-handed hitters from the Angels. Take the Astros
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Matt Severance
PITTSBURGH @ CINCINNATI | 04/05 | 6:49 PM EDT
CINCINNATI -145
ANALYSIS: I don't really trust either starting pitcher here -- JT Brubaker for Pittsburgh and Jose De Leon for Cincinnati -- but the Pirates have a very weak lineup as it is, and it's weaker for a while with the loss of National League Rookie of the Year favorite Ke'Bryan Hayes to the injured list. The Reds are good value just -145 at home. The Pirates have dropped their past four in Cincinnati.
TAMPA BAY @ BOSTON | 04/05 | 7:10 PM EDT
UNDER 9.5
ANALYSIS: Boston has started 0-3 at Fenway Park for just the second time in franchise history and totaled just five runs in being swept by the Orioles. It's going to be tough for anyone to hit a homer over the Green Monster with winds blowing in from left field at around 15 mph. Sox pitcher Nick Pivetta gave up two earned runs in 10 innings over two starts at the end of last season for Boston, while new Rays starter Michael Wacha had a very good spring. The Under is 10-1 in the Rays' past 11 as road favorites.
OTTAWA @ WINNIPEG | 04/05 | 7:00 PM EDT
WINNIPEG -200
ANALYSIS: This game was moved up from May 8 because the Jets lost two games (Sunday and tomorrow) vs. COVID-riddled Vancouver. The schedule adjustments gave Winnipeg two days between games for the first time since March 7-8, so the Jets players should be feeling pretty good. While the Sens have pulled some pretty big home upsets this season, they are just 5-14-0 on the road. They are also missing a couple of key players in forward Colin White (injured list) and blueliner Erik Gudbranson (wife due to give birth). Winnipeg has won six of the past seven in the series.
KANSAS CITY @ CLEVELAND | 04/05 | 4:10 PM EDT
CLEVELAND -125
ANALYSIS: Kansas City remains without one of its most exciting offensively players in injured shortstop in Adalberto Mondesi, who is on the injured list. Royals lefty starter Danny Duffy is just 4-12 with a 5.11 ERA in his career against the Indians. It's lefty Logan Allen for the Tribe. He was great this spring with a 0.64 ERA in 14 innings, and the Royals have never faced him in a regular-season game. This is Cleveland's home opener.
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Larry Hartstein
BAYLOR @ GONZAGA | 04/05 | 9:20 PM EDT
GONZAGA -4.5
ANALYSIS: Baylor dominated Saturday while Gonzaga squeaked by on an overtime heave, but I still like the Zags to complete their perfect season. The Bears thrive against isolation-heavy teams thanks to lockdown defender Davion Mitchell, but the Zags run a free-flowing offense with constant motion and cuts to the basket. Drew Timme is the X-factor Baylor can't match. He's averaged 25 points and seven rebounds over the past four games. The Zags also are better at the foul line, which should come in handy late. Lay the points.
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IC
Oilers O6 (3U)
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Scott Spreitzer
Gonzaga -4.5 (3U)
Montreal -125 (6U)
West Ham +165 (3U)
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Delphi Sports
NBA
3* #518 Toronto -4.5
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Kyle Akins
DETROIT @ OKLAHOMA CITY | 04/05 | 7:00 PM EDT
DETROIT -3
ANALYSIS: Both of these teams are coming off monstrous blowout losses, but the difference is that Oklahoma City is openly in tank mode while Detroit is not. Look for the Pistons to show a bit of pride here and bounce back from Saturday's 125-81 home loss to New York. Detroit is 10-0 ATS (10.45 ppg) when coming off a double-digit home defeat. The Pistons, who shot a mere 35.4 percent from the field in that setback, are 11-0 ATS (10.68 ppg) after shooting under 40 percent in their previous contest.
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Dave Essler
3* GOW
Kings -4
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IC
NBA
3 - Mavericks +4.5
MLB
3 - Cardinals over 8 -120
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Mike Barner
UTAH @ DALLAS | 04/05 | 7:00 PM EDT
UTAH -4.5
ANALYSIS: The Jazz are rolling again, having won nine straight games. Luck has been on their side, considering all of their key contributors are healthy right now. Playing in Dallas might not exactly be a daunting task, given that the Mavericks are only 11-10 on their home floor. After winning both of their previous two meetings against the Mavericks by at least 12 points, I like the Jazz to cover in this contest as well.
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PickersMx
Lady Pickers
100 Dimes O/U NCAAB Championship
Over 159.5 Baylor/Gonzaga
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Matt Blunt - Vegasinsider
NHL Big Plays 11-1Last 12
NHL
St Louis Blues +133 (BIG PLAY
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Stats Analytics Sports
NBA
3* Thunder +3.5
1* Kings -4
1* Jazz -4.5
1* Jazz/Mavericks Under 223
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Wayne Root
Chairman Gonzaga
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Big Al
ATS NBA HIGH ROLLER WINNER!
Houston
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Jack Banks
10* MLB Bank Job Top Dog!
Houston
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Vince Akins Spotsbook Breakers
NBA Big Plays 16-4 ATS Overall
NBA
Suns -14.5
Spurs -9
Suns/Rockets Over 222
Pistons/Thunder Under 213.5
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Kyle Akins
NEW YORK @ BROOKLYN | 04/05 | 7:00 PM EDT
UNDER 216.5
ANALYSIS: New York’s defense has really been locked in despite having faced some strong offenses in its last five games. Brooklyn obviously has a strong offense, but we think the Knicks will be committed to limiting scoring on Monday. The Nets are second in the NBA in scoring at 118.7 points per game, while New York leads the league with an average of just 103.9 points allowed. Teams that are scoring at least five points per game more than the league average and facing a team allowing at least five less than the league mark are 649-798-31 OU.
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H&H Sports
MLB
Triple Dime - Indians-125
Dime - Tigers +148
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Kevin Davis - Vegasinsider
MLB
Indians -127
Mets (1st 5 innings) -210
Giants +145
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Michael Crosson
Vegasinsider NBA
New York Knicks vs Brooklyn Nets
TV: NBA TV - Time: 7:10pm
Best Bet - Knicks/Nets Over 216.5
NBA Player Prop Best Bet - R.J. Barrett over 17.5 points (-112)
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John Bollman
PITTSBURGH @ CINCINNATI | 04/05 | 6:40 PM EDT
CINCINNATI -145
ANALYSIS: Jose De Leon will be facing JT Brubaker in a matchup between pitchers that don’t have much experience. The Reds took two of three at home from the Cardinals and most importantly, were scoring runs. They scored the third most runs in the league to start the season, and they did it against a pitching staff that was very good the last couple seasons. The Pirates have lost two in a row and they will be without their best player in Ke’bryan Hayes. Take the value in the Reds at home.
VEGAS @ ST. LOUIS | 04/05 | 8:00 PM EDT
VEGAS -140
ANALYSIS: The Golden Knights have lost three straight games but the Blues have lost six straight games and the Blues are 4-8-4 at home. Robin Lehner will most likely be starting for the Golden Knights and he has not allowed more than two goals in any of his last four starts. The Golden Knights are 3-1 against the Blues this season, including 2-0 on the road. They won, and scored five goals in each of their last three games against the Blues.
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Micah Roberts
BAYLOR @ GONZAGA | 04/05 | 9:20 PM EDT
GONZAGA -4.5
ANALYSIS: Gonzaga is scoring 92 ppg and shooting 55 percent, while Baylor is the best from long-range shooting 42.9 percent. But I think it will be the best defense that wins this game and Gonzaga has it. That’s part of the reason I’m also playing the Under in this game. But the betting strategy is simple -- lay the points with Gonzaga whenever the spread is single digits.
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Bob Balfe
Baylor +4.5
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WUnderdog
MLB
ChicagoCubs -110 vs milwaukee
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Bryan Leonard
5% NHL POWER PLAY
Game:*(45) Vegas Golden Knights at (46) St. Louis Blues
Date/Time:*Apr 5 2021 8:08 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider:*Consensus Line
Play Rating:*5%
Play:*Vegas Golden Knights -125
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Oskeim
2* Ratings
Detroit Pistons at Oklahoma City Thunder UNDER 213 points
Phoenix Suns at Houston Rockets OVER 222 points
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Karl Garrett
40 DIME
Winner
Dog Game of the Month
Minnesota Wild (40 dime)
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Steve Merril
4% Gonzaga
Analysis:
-Baylor has had an easy path to the title game; inferior, injured, and inefficient teams; class jump
-offense has scored less than 80 points in 6 of their last 7 games; not winning if that continues
-Bears allowing 44% shooting from the field away from home vs. offenses that shoot 43.9%
-Gonzaga has scored 83 points or more in their 5 tournament games; expect more of the same
-offense averages a whopping 91.6 points per game vs. defenses that allow 70.9 points per game
-Bulldogs allowing 42.1% shooting from the field vs. offenses that shoot 44.3% from the field
4% Play GONZAGA (-).
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Marc Lawrence
3* Dallas Mavericks
3*Tampa Bay Rays
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Las Vegas Pipeline
100 Gonzaga
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Harry Bondi
3* Gonzaga
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Tim Wilkinson - Vegasinsider
CBB - Gonzaga/Baylor Over 159
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Michael Crosson - Vegasinsider
CBB - Gonzaga -4 (-115)
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The Sports Geek
MLB
Astros/Angels Over 9.5 (Best Bet)
Cubs -113
White Sox -123
NHL
Boston Bruins -165
Vegas Golden Knights -140
Winnipeg Jets -1.5 goals +120
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H&H Sports
CBB - 3.5* Gonzaga -4 (-115) - Bookmaker
NBA
Triple Dime - Kings -4
Triple Dime - Mavericks +6
Double Dime - Wizards/Raptors Over 227
Double Dime - Spurs -9
MLB
Triple Dime - Rays -105
Triple Dime - White Sox -120
Double Dime - Padres -146
Double Dime - Dodgers -155
Dime - Cardinals +105
Dime - Yankees/Orioles Over 9.5
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Worlds Worst Picker MLB
Peabody’s picks
Houston ML
Seattle ML
We take
LA Angels
Chicago White Sox
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Matt Severance
SACRAMENTO @ MINNESOTA | 04/05 | 7:00 PM EDT
SACRAMENTO -144
ANALYSIS: I don't trust the Kings to cover the spread on the road, but they should win outright as Minnesota is expected to be without four key guys in Malik Beasley (19.6 ppg), D'Angelo Russell (19.3 ppg), Jaylen Nowell (9.9 ppg) and Ricky Rubio (8.3 ppg, 6.9 apg). It's April 5 and somehow this is the first meeting of the season between the teams. The Kings have won the past two.
ARIZONA @ LOS ANGELES | 04/05 | 10:00 PM EDT
LOS ANGELES -125
ANALYSIS: It's the second of a back-to-back for Arizona, which won at Anaheim on Sunday. However, because Adin Hill started that one in net and has started the past handful of games with the team's top two goaltenders injured, it's expected to be Ivan Prosvetov here. Prosvetov came off the bench and allowed five goals on 28 shots last Wednesday in his NHL debut. L.A. should thus have a huge advantage in net with Cal Petersen (2.49 GAA, .926 SV).
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Zack Cimini
FEATURED PICK
CLEVELAND @ SAN ANTONIO | 04/05 | 7:00 PM EDT
SAN ANTONIO -9.5
ANALYSIS: The Spurs have not been able to gain traction, even amidst a lengthy homestand. Monday's contest will be their ninth straight at home, a stretch during which they’ve produced just a 2-6 record. Even with the recent returns of Kevin Love, Matthew Dellavedova and Taurean Prince, the Cavaliers have continued to lose by double figures. Take San Antonio.
BAYLOR @ GONZAGA | 04/05 | 9:20 PM EDT
GONZAGA -4.5
ANALYSIS: This was a matchup we almost had in early December, but it was cancelled due to COVID-19. Over its last three NCAA Tournament games, Baylor has been impressive and cashed in ATS versus Villanova, Arkansas and Houston. But expect Gonzaga’s offensive talent and depth to pose a problem for the Bears. Look for the Bulldogs to complete their undefeated season and cash ATS.
SACRAMENTO @ MINNESOTA | 04/05 | 7:00 PM EDT
MINNESOTA +4.5
ANALYSIS: Several key players will be out for the Timberwolves in Monday’s matchup against the Kings. This has increased the spread offering on a Minnesota team that has won two of its last three home games. Look for Sacramento’s inconsistency on road trips to be a big factor here. Play the Timberwolves.
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CLEInsider
2020 NBA Season (129-90 59% +302 units)
Pistons Team Total UNDER 108.5
Raptors Team Total OVER 115.5
Thunder Team Total OVER 105.5
Rockets +14.5
2020 CBB Season (119-102 54% +68 units)
Gonzaga ML (-210)
2021 MLB Season (45-37 54% +1 units)
Indians ML (-120)
Blue Jays ML (-140)
Marlins ML (-110)
Cubs ML (-110)
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Larry Hartstein
TAMPA BAY @ BOSTON | 04/05 | 7:10 PM EDT
BOSTON -105
ANALYSIS: I like the Red Sox to get their first win tonight. They should have success against Michael Wacha, who was horrible last season with a 6.62 ERA. Look for Nick Pivetta to build on his strong finish last year as Boston breaks through.
UTAH @ DALLAS | 04/05 | 7:00 PM EDT
UTAH -5
ANALYSIS: The Jazz didn't need to extend themselves to destroy the Magic on Saturday, so they'll be fresh for this Western Conference showdown. Utah handled Dallas fairly easily in two home meetings in January, winning by 12 and 19 points. The Mavs are playing better now. They have won four straight as they return home from a five-game trip. But with Kristaps Porzingis dealing with a sprained wrist, I'll back Utah to win its 10th straight -- and cover.
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XS Sports Picks NHL
YTD 100-86 (54%) +$59,620
$3000 Edmonton +111 (7pm)
$3000 LA Kings -105 (10pm)
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XS Sports Picks NBA
Last Week 12-4 (75%)
NBA YTD 145-96 (60%)
Toronto -5 @ BetRivers (7pm)
Sacramento -2 @ BetRivers (7pm)
Phoenix -14 (8pm)
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XS Sports Picks NCAA BK (Championship Game)
Baylor +5
Baylor FH +2.5
Baylor FH Over 75.5
Baylor Over 159
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MARCO D'ANGELO
ALL BASKETBALL PLAYS
5% NCAA NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP 6-0 ATS
Game: (811) Baylor at (812) Gonzaga
Date/Time: Apr 5 2021 9:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Gonzaga -4.5 (-110)
5% (812) GONZAGA -4.5
I love the spot we find Gonzaga in tonight. So many times I have talked about how I love backing a Good Team after they have a scare. Gonzaga couldn’t have had a bigger scare than they did on Saturday but they survived it. We were on UCLA with a 1st half wager as one of the main reasons was that UCLA had to prepare properly for this Gonzaga team unlike when USC faced them on the one day turnaround. Baylor has to prepare on the short turnaround. I also mentioned that if the game was tight that UCLA had a huge advantage because they played 2 OT games and the Michigan was a game that went down to the final shot. Gonzaga had yet to play a tight game but now they have. UCLA shot an insane 57% against Gonzaga. Prior to that game Gonzaga held 3 out of 4 teams in the Tournament to 40% or less shooting. It must also be noted that Drew Timme played being in foul trouble which definitely helped UCLA offensively as he had to play passive to avoid picking up that 5th foul. Now let’s talk about Baylor as one of the reasons we liked UCLA on Saturday was that Gonzaga looked so good against USC the game before that they had to regress and they did. Well now it’s Baylor that looked so good against Houston and I expect them to regress. Remember Houston was a team that had been struggling shooting the ball the entire tournament and it finally caught up to them. Gonzaga doesn’t struggle offensively and will score on this Baylor defense. Bottom line I just don’t see Baylor trading points with Gonzaga for a full game. My numbers have Gonzaga winning by 9 or more points.TAKE GONZAGA as my 5% NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP PLAY.
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