Saturday 4/3/21 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for NBA, MLB & NCAAB games.
Larry Hartstein
UCLA @ GONZAGA | 04/03 | 8:34 PM EDT
GONZAGA -14
ANALYSIS: The Bruins want to make it a strictly halfcourt game like they did versus Michigan, but the Zags aren't going to let them. Gonzaga sped up USC with its defense and ran away with another easy cover. The Bulldogs have won a Division I-record 27 straight games by double digits. Wish I'd gotten the opening number of 13.5, but I'll still lay the points with this juggernaut.
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Josh Nagel
HOUSTON @ BAYLOR | 04/03 | 5:14 PM EDT
HOUSTON +5
ANALYSIS: Houston's path to the Final Four has come with four wins against double-digit seeds, and the Cougars narrowly squeezed by Rutgers and Oregon State. Even so, their 57.6 ppg scoring defense (No. 2 nationally) is the most lethal weapon either side brings to this contest. They should slow down the powerful offense of Baylor (83 ppg) and force the Bears out of their comfort zone and into a half-court grinder. The slower tempo should bring more value to the points and, if the Cougars can avoid the long offensive droughts that have threatened a couple games, they could be headed to the national title game.
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Thom Cunningham - Vegasinsider
College Basketball Final 4
Baylor -5
Baylor/Houston Over 134
Gonzaga -14
Gonzaga/UCLA Over 145
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Matt Severance
UCLA @ GONZAGA | 04/03 | 8:34 PM EDT
UCLA +14
ANALYSIS: Second game of Final Four on Saturday and shown on CBS. I've never seen a college offense hum like Gonzaga's, and the Bruins winning this game would be a much, much bigger upset than when Duke knocked off unbeaten UNLV in the Final Four 30 years ago. I have no question in my mind the Zags win, but UCLA plays at such a snail's pace that it can stay within this spread -- the Bruins completely slowed down Alabama (65 regulation points) and Michigan (an amazingly low 49 points). Double-digit underdogs are 8-6 ATS in this Big Dance. Hey, maybe the Zags even look past UCLA a bit toward what has seemed like an inevitable national title game showdown all season vs. Baylor (assuming the Bears win in the Final Four opener -- which they will).
HOUSTON @ BAYLOR | 04/03 | 5:14 PM EDT
BAYLOR -5
ANALYSIS: First game of Final Four on Saturday and shown on CBS. I was hoping this might drop to Baylor -4.5, but that's not going to happen with heavy action on the Bears. Houston is no doubt a good team but also is the first school to beat solely double-digit seeds on the way to the Final Four -- and UH didn't look great in a couple of those. The Cougars have faced just one AP Top 25 team (when they played) all season and that was way back on Nov. 29. Baylor has won 22 straight non-conference games by an average margin of 21.7 points. This won't be that big of a blowout, but the Bears winning by low double digits wouldn't surprise.
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Oskeim Sports
5% Final Four Game of the Month
Houston +5'
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PhillyGodFather
UCLA +14.5/15
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Clay Travis
Under 134.5 Houston/Baylor
UCLA +15
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Joe Williams - Vegasinsider College Basketball
CBB
Baylor -5
Baylor/Houston Over 134.5
Gonzaga -14
Gonzaga/UCLA Over 145 (Tournament Totals Game of the Year)
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Jonathan Willis Vegasinsider
Week #8 CFB FCS Spring Football 17-8 ATS Overall..
Odds per BetMGM
CFB
Wofford/The Citadel Under 48
Robert Morris +16.5
Southern Utah/Weber State Under 48
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XS Sports Picks (NCAA FB)
NCAA FB YTD 13-4 (76%)
VMI -1.5 (1:30pm)
VMI Over 47 (1:30pm)
Valparaiso +13.5 (2pm)
Mercer +11.5 (3:30pm)
Mercer Under 51.5 (3:30pm)
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World Worst Picker
Baylor
UCLA
The Fade is:
Houston
Gonzaga
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Larry Hartstein
HOUSTON @ BAYLOR | 04/03 | 5:14 PM EDT
BAYLOR -5
ANALYSIS: To keep up with Baylor, the Cougars will need a big night from leading scorer Quentin Grimes. I'm betting against that happening and expecting Davion Mitchell, the Big 12's Defensive Player of the Year, to harass Grimes into a bad night like he did versus Moses Moody. Arkansas' star was held to 2-of-10 shooting with three turnovers. Houston's primary advantage will be on the offensive glass, but I don't think the Bears are as vulnerable there as some suggest. Baylor is back to the form it showed in the first half of the season, before the team's three-week hiatus. Lay the points.
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Gus Augustine
50 Dime
National Semifinal
Line Mistake
Houston +5
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Ben Burns
10* NCAA Tournament Total of the Year
Baylor / Houston under 135.5
9* Yanks -160
9*Cubs -165
10* kings-120
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Kyle Akins
NEW YORK @ DETROIT | 04/03 | 8:00 PM EDT
NEW YORK -2.5
ANALYSIS: New York is struggling coming into this game and considering the strength of its next several opponents, this is a must-win game to avoid a long slide. Look for the Knicks to be all-in to grind out a victory. Detroit is coming off a massive 120-91 victory over Washington on Thursday yet are still underdogs here. Teams that are dogs of at least a point coming off a win by 25-plus points are 302-369-11 ATS. Even worse, Detroit is 0-10-2 ATS with less than two days rest coming off a double-digit win.
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Mike McClure
PITTSBURGH @ CHI. CUBS | 04/03 | 2:20 PM EDT
PITTSBURGH +150
ANALYSIS: I played this number at +157 but I would still play it here at +150. The high variance conditions at Wrigley favor the underdog, especially when they're facing a volatile pitching like Jake Arrieta. I have major concerns with Arrieta's wOBA and HR/9 numbers against all hitters, but especially lefties where he's allowed a .380 wOBA in his last 82 innings. I have the Pirates winning 43% of simulations, suggesting they should only be +132 underdogs this afternoon.
ATLANTA @ PHILADELPHIA | 04/03 | 4:05 PM EDT
ATLANTA -111
ANALYSIS: My model has the Braves winning 55 percent of simulations behind Charlie Morton in this matchup. Wheeler doesn't give up a lot of HR, but his strikeout rate has dipped to a level that isn't very intimidating. Meanwhile, Charlie Morton is still working with elite strikeout rates at age 37. If Morton is anything close to what he was last season, the Braves are going undervalued during his first few starts. Lay it.
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MLB(Bob Balfe)
2:10 PM EST
Rotation #969-970
Rangers/Royals Over 9.5 runs
The winds will favor the hitting today in Kansas City. Both of these teams got off to a great start the other night and we are looking for them to start hot again today. Kohei Arihara will make his first MLB start coming over from the Nippon Pro League in Japan where the ball is a little different and the hitters not as talented. Nerves might play a factor which could be good for some early runs. Mike Minor got knocked around last year and failed to pick up a win for the Rangers last year so they shipped him out of town. Minor now gets to face his old teammates. I think both teams showed they can get on the scoreboard early and often this year. The wind conditions help today so we will sit back and cheer for offense. Take the Over.
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Marc Lawrence 5* UCLA+14.5
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ATS BASEBALL
4 phils
3 red sox over
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Brandon Lang
150 DIME
- COLLEGE HOOP WINNER
Baylor Bears -5 over the Houston Cougars
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Pure Lock
4% - Minnesota Timberwolves +11.5 (-110)
4% - Tampa Bay Rays -120
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Zack Cimini
HOUSTON @ BAYLOR | 04/03 | 5:14 PM EDT
HOUSTON +5
ANALYSIS: Baylor has shown signs of deteriorating play down the stretch of the Big 12 season and in the NCAA Tournament, lacking the ability to play for 40 minutes. Also, their isolation halfcourt sets will play into the hands of the Cougars. Take the points.
UCLA @ GONZAGA | 04/03 | 8:34 PM EDT
GONZAGA -14
ANALYSIS: The Final Four is the stage where Cinderella stories come to an end. Expect that to be the case for UCLA, which had the fortune to survive two overtime games and several late-game blunders by Michigan. The Zags will overpower the Bruins and make another big statement before Monday’s national title game.
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Jim Feist
MLB
3* #953 Atlanta -110
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Chris Jordan
Top-Rated
1000♦
National Semifinal
Game of the Year
Gonzaga
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Eric Schroeder
50 DIME
Baylor O134.5
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Scott Delany
Top-Rated
100 DIME
MLB Winner # 5 of 6
Opening Dog of the Year
Rangers +145
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Kirby Maxwell
60 DIME
Baylor (60 dime)
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Mitchell Newman
60 DIME
Baylor
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Trace Adams
Raise The Bar
1500♦
Gonzaga
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Bob Valentino
75 Dime
Baylor
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Steve Budin
CALI-CARTEL
50 DIME
NL Central Opening Lock
Cardinals
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Sean Michaels
50 Dime Release
Houston Astros
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Ben Burns
10* NCAA Tournament Total of the Year
Baylor / Houston under 135.5
9* Yanks -160
9*Cubs -165
10* kings-120
ADDED
10* oakland+1.5-135
10* over-201-knicks
9* bruins-110
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Dave Essler
3* GOM
Houston +5
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Scott Spreitzer
Houston +5 (7U)
Bruins (3U)
Liverpool BOTH to score (3U)
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Pure Lock
Added
Game: (1) Pittsburgh Penguins at (2) Boston Bruins
Date/Time: Apr 3 2021 1:08 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Boston Bruins -115
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Bondi
4* baylor
3* gonzaga
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INSIDER SPORTS REPORT
Premier Picks® For 04/03/21
5* San Francisco (Webb) -125 over Seattle (Flexen)
Range: -110 to -155
3* Houston/Baylor UNDER 134.5 (NCAAB)
Range: 136.5 to 132.5
3* Gonzaga -14 over U.C.L.A. (NCAAB)
Range: -12.5 to -16.5
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Al Demarco
20 dime Baylor
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Jack Winningham
Gonzaga -14
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Micah Roberts
HOUSTON @ OAKLAND | 04/03 | 4:07 PM EDT
OAKLAND +130
ANALYSIS: Cole Irvin was so impressive during spring that he won himself a spot in the rotation. The A's got him from the Phillies in exchange for cash considerations. He pitched 18 spring innings and allowed only two runs between his five appearances. He had 18 strikeouts and just three walks. The Astros have had their way in the first two games, but I like the A’s to bounce back behind a great start by Irvin.
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Tiny Nick’s Locks
Baylor (-5)
Gonzaga 1H (-8.5)
Gonzaga 1H TT OVER 39
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H&H Sports
CFB
Jacksonville State -20
Villanova +2
Murray State +3.5
North Dakota State -130 (Moneyline)
Colgate +2
Jackson State +2 (Television ESPN 5:00pm)
Youngstown State -9.5
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Sharp Money Plays
ALWAYS LIST PITCHERS!
*ST LOUIS +109
*ST LOUIS -1.5 (+161)
(ALT Runline)
*ST LOUIS +1.5 (-180)
*ST LOUIS (OVER 4.5)
(TEAM TOTAL)
*NYY-165
*CLEVELAND -1.5 (-104)
*BOSTON -182
*TEXAS +156
*CUBS -163
*PHILLY +104
*TAMPA BAY -130
*ARIZONA +170
*UNDER 9 (AZ/SD)
*CHICAGO WS -130
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Micah Roberts
HOUSTON @ BAYLOR | 04/03 | 5:14 PM EDT
BAYLOR -5
ANALYSIS: This is going to be a battle with strengths vs. strengths featuring Houston’s No. 1 defense allowing only 37.3 percent shooting facing Baylor’s No. 1 ranked 3-point shooting team (41.1 percent). How do you beat Houston’s tough defense and keep the Cougars off the boards? You shoot over it with 3-point shots and make them. Baylor has done that better than any team this season. Baylor to cover.
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Godfather Locks
UCLA Bruins +14.5 (ncaab)
Houston Cougars +5 (ncaab)
Washington Wizards +6 (nba)
Cincinnati Reds -120 (mlb)
Milwaukee Brewers -135 (mlb)
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H&H Sports
MLB
Triple Dime - Braves -110
Triple Dime - Yankees -158
Double Dime - Cubs -159
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Murphy
10 gom
Atlanta
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Lundin
Yankees
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Rogers
Game of month
Rockies
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Jack Jones
15
Oakland
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Mike Barner
NEW YORK @ DETROIT | 04/03 | 8:00 PM EDT
NEW YORK -1.5
ANALYSIS: The Knicks need a win after losing three straight. They are only game ahead of ninth-place Indiana in the loss column. They’ve had the Pistons’ number, winning both of their previous two meetings by at least 10 points each. That included a 19-point win in Detroit. I expect them to bounce back from their recent struggles to cover this small line.
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Oskeim Sports
5% Final Four Game of the Month
Houston +5'
ADDED
1* Heat Under 209
1* Indians -159
1* Pistons Under 202
1* Gonzaga -14
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Wayne Root CBB
Reserve - Houston Under
Gold Standard - Gonzaga
Pinnacle- Houston
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digbets - opening weekend total (11:20am pst) 3 carats
mlb - pit/cubs over 11
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Executive
300 Indiana
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PickersMx
La Barba Pickers
75 Dimes O/U Final Four
Over 134.5 Baylor vs Houston
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Micah Roberts
HOUSTON @ OAKLAND | 04/03 | 4:07 PM EDT
OAKLAND +130
ANALYSIS: Cole Irvin was so impressive during spring that he won himself a spot in the rotation. The A's got him from the Phillies in exchange for cash considerations. He pitched 18 spring innings and allowed only two runs between his five appearances. He had 18 strikeouts and just three walks. The Astros have had their way in the first two games, but I like the A’s to bounce back behind a great start by Irvin.
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John Bollman
COLUMBUS @ FLORIDA | 04/03 | 7:00 PM EDT
FLORIDA -150
ANALYSIS: The Panthers have won four straight games while the Blue Jackets have lost five of their last six games. The Blue Jackets are much worse on the road and only score 2.1 goals per game. The Blue Jackets haven’t scored more than three goals in almost a month while the Panthers are one of the top scoring teams in the league. Take the value in the Panthers at home.
MINNESOTA @ MILWAUKEE | 04/03 | 7:10 PM EDT
MINNESOTA +125
ANALYSIS: Jose Berrios gets the start for the Twins after their tough loss on Opening Day. The Twins were up 5-2 in the ninth inning but proceeded to commit two errors sandwiched by a couple hits to blow the save. Berrios is a strikeout pitcher and he faced the Brewers once last season allowing just one hit in six innings. Corbin Burnes allowed just 14 earned runs in 11 starts in the shortened season, and he was really the ace of the pitching staff. However, he had an 8.82 ERA in 34 games in 2019 so he can blow up. Take the Twins with plus money.
HOUSTON @ OAKLAND | 04/03 | 4:07 PM EDT
OAKLAND +125
ANALYSIS: The Athletics bats started to wake up late last night but they weren’t able to come back to win the game. Lance MCCullers Jr. will face Cole Irvin tonight. McCullers Jr. struggled at the beginning of the short season coming back from TJ surgery but he started to put it together to end the season. Cole Irvin is a surprise start for the Athletics in Game 3, he has not had much success in the Major Leagues but he was a stud in the Minor Leagues. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him re-invent himself with a new organization after leaving the Phillies. The Astros won each of the last two games and their bullpen isn’t very deep, take the value in the Athletics at home.
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John Bollman
TAMPA BAY @ MIAMI | 04/03 | 6:10 PM EDT
TAMPA BAY +101
ANALYSIS: Rich Hill will start the game for the Rays with Chris Archer scheduled to come out of the bullpen to piggyback him. Hill had a 3.02 ERA in eight starts last season. He performs when he is healthy, his problem is just staying healthy. The Rays face Elieser Hernandez who was 1-0 with a 3.16 ERA in just six starts last season. Take the value in the Rays who have won 11 of their last 12 games against the Marlins.
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