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(@shazman)
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Friday 4/2/21 thread for handicapping service plays and expert predictions for NBA, MLB & NCAAB games

 
Posted : April 2, 2021 8:54 am
(@shazman)
Posts: 57734
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Jeff Hochman

SAN JOSE @ LOS ANGELES | 04/02 | 10:00 PM EDT
LOS ANGELES -125
ANALYSIS: San Jose defeated the Kings on March 22 by one goal despite getting outshot 42-23. San Jose defeated the Kings by two goals despite getting outshot 44-28 on March 24. The Kings are a feisty bunch, having just won in Vegas against a very good team. LA has a 0-goal differential, while San Jose has a -24 goal differential this season. The Kings are ranked 11th in face-off win percentage, while the Sharks are ranked 24th. Take the home team in this revenge spot.
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Matt Severance

CALGARY @ EDMONTON | 04/02 | 9:00 PM EDT
EDMONTON -140
ANALYSIS: This seems like an awfully low moneyline number for the Oilers at home as they are clearly the superior club -- both teams are well-rested. Calgary last played on Monday and was supposed to play Wednesday, but its game vs. Vancouver was postponed. Edmonton was last in action Tuesday. The Flames haven't been very good on the road, going 7-11-2 and they are 4-11 in their past 15 as dogs overall. The Oilers have won six straight at home and are 2-0 there vs. Calgary in 2021, outscoring the Flames 10-3. In six games vs. the Flames overall this season, Oilers superstar Connor McDavid has six goals and 14 points.
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baseball33

Boston Red Sox - Baltimore Orioles

Boston Red Sox -1.5
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Matt Blunt - Vegasinsider
NHL Big Plays 10-1 last 11 overall..

NHL
St Louis Blues +210 regular play
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Kevin Davis - Vegasinsider MLB Handicapper

MLB
Miami Marlins +105
Colorado Rockies +2.5 runs +105
Los Angeles Angels -114
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Pickswise Sports

MLB 3* Best Bet - Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 runs (-165)

Rest of the Card
2* Boston Red Sox -165
2* Boston Red Sox/Baltimore Orioles Over 9
2* Chicago White Sox +112
2* Seattle Mariners -125
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Posted : April 2, 2021 8:59 am
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Wolverine Sports Wire 5

Cws
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Brandywine Bookmakers Syndicate 10

lad - 1.5
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pure lock

Game: (925) Tampa Bay Rays at (926) Miami Marlins
Date/Time: Apr 2 2021 7:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Tampa Bay Rays -125

Game: (63) Calgary Flames at (64) Edmonton Oilers
Date/Time: Apr 2 2021 9:08 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Calgary Flames +125
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Posted : April 2, 2021 11:07 am
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IC

Winnipeg +125 (4U)
West Brom +2 -150 (4U)
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Scott Spreitzer

LA Kings -125 (4U)
Cruz Azul -130 (4U)
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Gus Augustine

40 Dime
Interleague
Game of the Week

Mariners -125
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Posted : April 2, 2021 1:02 pm
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Larry Hartstein

CHI. WHITE SOX @ L.A. ANGELS | 04/02 | 9:38 PM EDT
L.A. ANGELS -115
ANALYSIS: I agree with this line move toward the Angels. It will be hard for Dallas Keuchel to duplicate his 2020 success; according to advanced metrics, he was extremely fortunate last season. He had a short Spring Training and is facing an Angels team that hits lefties well. I'm looking for a stronger start from Angels lefty Andrew Heaney. He's facing a White Sox team that compiled a low .296 wOBA against southpaws last season. Look for the Halos to improve to 24-6 in their past 30 home meetings with Chicago.
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Matt Severance

TAMPA BAY @ MIAMI | 04/02 | 7:10 PM EDT
UNDER 7.5
ANALYSIS: I believe these two lineups will struggle all season. Here's an interesting statistic: Teams that were blanked in their season opener have an Over/Under record of 6-25-1 in the second game -- Tampa Bay beat Miami 1-0 on Thursday. It's Ryan Yarbrough vs. Pablo Lopez on the mound. Yarbrough threw six shutout innings last year in his lone start vs. the Marlins, while Lopez had a 2.54 ERA in 2020 if you take away one horrific start vs. Atlanta. He had a 2.56 ERA overall at home. The Under is 8-2 in the Rays' last 10 games vs. a right-handed starter.

L.A. DODGERS @ COLORADO | 04/02 | 8:40 PM EDT
UNDER 12
ANALYSIS: If you are new to MLB betting, games at Colorado's Coors Field always have the highest total on the board due to the thin air. These teams combined for 13 runs in the Rockies' big upset Thursday. However, the wind will be blowing in a bit from dead center Friday, and I think this will be lower-scoring because of the pitching matchup of reigning NL Cy Young winner Trevor Bauer in his Dodger debut and Colorado's Antonio Senzatela. The latter seems to prefer Coors as he was 3-0 with a 2.10 ERA at home in 2020. The Under is 6-2 in the past eight meetings in Denver between the teams.

BALTIMORE @ BOSTON | 04/02 | 2:10 PM EDT
BOSTON -177
ANALYSIS: Disappointing Opening Day overall, but then Opening Days in any sport are the hardest to handicap -- and there were some major upsets around MLB on Thursday that probably will not be the norm. I don't think Boston is that great, but the Orioles look terrible again. Baltimore lefty John Means was an All-Star in 2019 but has largely fallen off a cliff since the first half of that season. Boston's Nathan Eovaldi can be wild but also dominant -- he was 3-0 with a 0.95 ERA last year vs. the Birds. This is the only matinee on Friday and a makeup game of Thursday's postponement.
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Zack Cimini

HOUSTON @ OAKLAND | 04/02 | 9:40 PM EDT
HOUSTON +130
ANALYSIS: Tension between AL West rivals in the Astros and A’s made for compelling regular and postseason baseball last season. They’ll start off the 2021 season as the A’s look to avenge a playoff series loss against the Astros. While Zack Greinke’s form is not of elite caliber anymore, he’ll get the run support necessary to put the Astros in the win column.
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Kyle Akins

BALTIMORE @ BOSTON | 04/02 | 2:10 PM EDT
BOSTON -177
ANALYSIS: This is a familiar spot for Boston and Nathan Eovaldi. While 2020 got away from the Red Sox, they also faced Baltimore on Opening Day a season ago and Eovaldi started that game. The Red Sox won 13-2. We see Boston being overlooked a bit this season, and I like this Opening Day spot that should feel very comfortable to the team. Baltimore actually finished a game better than Boston at 25-35 in 2020 yet it is the Red Sox who are solid favorites here. Opening Day favorites against teams that had better records than them last year are 43-18.
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John Bollman

TORONTO @ WINNIPEG | 04/02 | 8:00 PM EDT
WINNIPEG +125
ANALYSIS: Neither of these teams has been blazing hot as of late, although Jack Campbell has been a stud for the Maple Leafs so far. He last played in the NHL in 2018 for the Kings and now he is 7-0 with a 1.41 ERA this season with the Maple Leafs. These two teams played a couple nights ago but it was the Jets first home game after a long road trip and they had a dud. I expect them to bounce back tonight, take the value on the Jets at home at plus money.

CALGARY @ EDMONTON | 04/02 | 9:00 PM EDT
EDMONTON -140
ANALYSIS: The Flames are 7-11-2 on the road this season, and just 4-6 in their last 10 games. The Oilers are 4-2 against the Flames this season including 2-0 at home. The Oilers are 6-3-1 in their last 10 games and these two teams split two games in Calgary in their most recent meeting. However, the Oilers had the upper hand in that series and I expect them to pull out the win tonight.

TAMPA BAY @ MIAMI | 04/02 | 7:10 PM EDT
TAMPA BAY +101
ANALYSIS: The Rays have now won 10 of their last 11 games against the Marlins. Pablo Lopez faced the Rays twice last season and allowed seven runs in 11 innings. Ryan Yarbrough had a 3.56 ERA last season and didn't allow a run in 6.2 IP against the Marlins. Take the value in the Rays.
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Mike McClure

HOUSTON @ OAKLAND | 04/02 | 9:40 PM EDT
HOUSTON +130
ANALYSIS: I'm bullish on both of these pitchers long term, but I have some concerns with Jesus Luzardo in this particular matchup and his strikeout rate and 1.58 HR/9 against right-handed hitting. Javier will benefit from the strong pitching environment in Oakland. I make the Astros +112 as I have them winning 47 percent of simulations in this matchup.

SAN FRANCISCO @ SEATTLE | 04/02 | 10:10 PM EDT
SAN FRANCISCO +115
ANALYSIS: I'm playing the Giants against another left-handed pitcher in the 2nd game of the season. I have the Giants winning 53 percent of simulations suggesting they should be -112 favorites behind Cueto. Kikuchi was a little better in 2020, but he still has a career .360 wOBA allowed to right-handed hitters. Take the Giants as road dogs.
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Mike Barner

L.A. LAKERS @ SACRAMENTO | 04/02 | 10:00 PM EDT
SACRAMENTO -4.5
ANALYSIS: Just when it looked as if the Lakers were going to receive some reinforcements, the newly signed Andre Drummond went down with a toe injury in his first game with the team. Since LeBron James (ankle) joined Anthony Davis (calf) on the sidelines, the Lakers are 2-4 with their only wins coming against a Cavaliers team that was missing Collin Sexton and a Magic squad that was stripped down at the trade deadline. The Kings are 4-2 ATS across their last six contests, and I expect them to cover in this matchup, as well.
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Scott Spreitzer

Suns -13 (3U)
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Scott Spreitzer

Suns -13 (3U)
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IC

4 - Knicks +6
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Matt Severance

ST. LOUIS @ COLORADO | 04/02 | 9:00 PM EDT
ST. LOUIS +1.5
ANALYSIS: The Avalanche have at least one point in 12 straight games (10 wins, 2 OT losses), so I'm not going to bet against them straight up at home here, but the Blues at -125 on the puckline is solid value with Colorado not starting Vezina Trophy favorite Philipp Grubauer but recently-acquired shaky backup Jonas Johansson in net. He's 0-5-2 this year (started in Buffalo) with a 3.78 GAA. St. Louis actually has been much better on the road than at home.
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Posted : April 2, 2021 1:23 pm
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