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Free Premium Service Plays For Thursday 4/1/21

Free Premium Service Plays For Thursday 4/1/21 1 month 2 weeks ago #531696

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Thursday 4/1/21 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for NBA, MLB & NCAAB games
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Free Premium Service Plays For Thursday 4/1/21 1 month 2 weeks ago #531697

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Matt Severance

TORONTO @ N.Y. YANKEES | 04/01 | 1:05 PM EDT
N.Y. YANKEES -175
ANALYSIS: Obviously a new season, but New York was 22-9 at home last year and won all three matchups at Yankee Stadium vs. the Blue Jays by multiple runs. That you can get AL Cy Young favorite Gerrit Cole here at less than -180 in a home game is worth it. He was 2-0 last year vs. Toronto. The Blue Jays probably will be without their big offseason acquisition in former Astros outfielder George Springer as he's dealing with an oblique muscle. Here's hoping rain doesn't postpone this.

Matt Severance

TAMPA BAY @ MIAMI | 04/01 | 4:10 PM EDT
MIAMI +1.5
ANALYSIS: I believe the defending AL champion Rays will take a fairly big step back this season after losing two top starting pitchers in free agency/trade and with stellar reliever Nick Anderson on the shelf for at least half the year. The Rays also just lost first baseman Ji-Man Choi for at least a month due to injury and will not have the DH in the National League park. Miami is a young team on the rise and may well win this outright, but we'll take the -140 on the runline behind Sandy Alcantara (3-2, 3.00 ERA in 2020).

N.Y. METS @ WASHINGTON | 04/01 | 7:09 PM EDT
N.Y. METS -145
ANALYSIS: Stellar pitching matchup between two-time Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom of the Mets and three-time Cy Young winner Max Scherzer of the Nationals. At least we think Scherzer will start. Unfortunately for the Nats, an unidentified player has tested positive for COVID, which means he and four close contact teammates are out at least this game. It could be five backups/relievers of little value, but we'll take the chance. The Mets win in Francisco Lindor's New York debut. The game is still on -- just a reminder, though, that COVID issues are far from over.
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Ben Burns

10-Red Sox -167
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Micah Roberts

TAMPA BAY @ MIAMI | 04/01 | 4:10 PM EDT
MIAMI +135
ANALYSIS: This bet depends on the Marlins carrying over some momentum from spring training, when they won 14 of 19 games while the starters and bullpen put up the best stats of spring. Leading the way was Sandy Alcantara with a 1.33 ERA in six starts, 20.1 IP, 27 K, and 9 BBs. Don Mattingly had the Marlins run a lot more during spring, stealing 25 bases and getting caught only eight times. Rays' pitching struggled in spring with a 5.16 ERA and they play in Florida, not Arizona where the ball carries more.

CLEVELAND @ DETROIT | 04/01 | 1:10 PM EDT
UNDER 7.5
ANALYSIS: Matthew Boyd had an incredible spring, allowing just five earned runs in 18.1 innings of work (2.45 ERA) spanning over five starts. I've given him a .15 cent upgrade from 2020. Shane Bieber was as sharp as always, allowing six earned runs over 17.1 spring innings (3.12 ERA). I think both starters will have an edge with temperatures in the low 30s in Detroit. I may choose Detroit to win later, but I'll just take the Under for now.
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Jeff Hochman

CHI. WHITE SOX @ L.A. ANGELS | 04/01 | 10:05 PM EDT
L.A. ANGELS +105
ANALYSIS: If Shohei Ohtani can stay healthy, I believe the Angles can win 87-plus games this season. There are some wise guys betting him as a sleeper AL MVP candidate. Lucas Giolito has been great, but not in the month of April. In 2018, his ERA was 8.69 and in 2019 his ERA was 6.75 in this opening month. The Angels are 22-6 in the past 28 meetings in Los Angeles. There will be roughly 10,000 fans in attendance. Dylan Bundy looks to be the real deal after a fantastic spring training. His counting stats have been improving year by year. Let's take a shot with the home underdog.
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SDQL

CHI. WHITE SOX @ L.A. ANGELS | 04/01 | 10:05 PM EDT
CHI. WHITE SOX -115
ANALYSIS: The White Sox have a relentless, opportunistic offense and they should be able to start the season off with a win in this spot. Chicago is a team on the rise and Lucas Giolito has nothing but quality starts in his three career starts versus the Angels. He has averaged 6.33 innings of work while striking out 7.33 batters with an ERA of 2.33 runs. Lay the small price, as Chicago should be undervalued early this season.

TAMPA BAY @ MIAMI | 04/01 | 4:10 PM EDT
TAMPA BAY -145
ANALYSIS: The Marlins were the Cinderella team last season, making the playoffs and then sweeping the Cubs in a best of three series. The Rays, however, are the real deal. They have beaten the Marlins ten of their last eleven meetings. The Rays have won Tyler Glasnow’s last eight regular-season starts and with Blake Snell gone, he will make the first opening day start of his career. We would be very surprised if the Marlins were able to get the win. This price is too low.

ST. LOUIS @ CINCINNATI | 04/01 | 4:10 PM EDT
CINCINNATI -115
ANALYSIS: Jack Flaherty’s numbers dropped precipitously from 2019. His innings pitched dropped from 5.93 to 4.59 and his strikeouts dropped from 7.03 to 5.78. Castillo averaged a career-best 7.38 strikeouts per start in 2020 - including 8.40 per game at home. This line is an overreaction to The Cardinals’ signing of Arenado. The value is with the Reds in this spot.
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Kevin Davis - Vegasinsider MLB Handicapper

MLB
Cleveland Indians -180
Texas Rangers +155
Los Angeles Angels +110
New York Mets/Washington Nationals Over 6.5
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Matt Blunt - Vegasinsider Golf Handicapper

2021 Valero Texas Open
Date - Thursday 4/1 - Sunday 4/4
Venue - TPC San Antonio (Oaks Course)
Location - San Antonio, Texas
Par 72 - Yardage 7,435 yards
Defending Champ - Corey Conners (2019)
TV - Golf Channel and CBS

Top Picks and Predictions
Tony Finau +1200
Scottie Scheffler +1500
Charlie Hoffman +3300
SI WOO KIM +3500

Mid-Range Value - Zach Johnson +4800
Long Shot Pick - Jhonattan Vegas +10000

72 Hole Match-Up - Rickie Fowler (-109) over Joel Dahmen
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Kevin Rogers - Vegasinsider

MLB
Los Angeles Angels +105
San Francisco Giants -105
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Tim Wilkinson - Vegasinsider

MLB
Red Sox -160
Braves/Phillies Over 7
Rangers/Royals Under 9
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Pickswise Sports

MLB 3* Best Bet
San Diego Padres -1.5 runs -110
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baseball33

Minnesota Twins
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Free Premium Service Plays For Thursday 4/1/21 1 month 2 weeks ago #531707

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INSIDER SPORTS REPORT

Premier Picks® For 04/01/21
4* Atlanta (Fried) -105 over Philadelphia (Nola)
3* St. Louis (Flaherty) +105 over Cincinnati (Castillo)
3* Texas (Gibson)/Kansas City (Keller) UNDER 9
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Larry Hartstein

TEXAS @ KANSAS CITY | 04/01 | 4:10 PM EDT
KANSAS CITY -157
ANALYSIS: The Royals won 12 of their last 18 games last season, they went 16-8 in Spring Training and they're looking to carry that momentum into Opening Day. For starters, they have the pitching edge with Brad Keller (1.02 WHIP, 2.47 ERA last season) opposing Texas' Kyle Gibson (5.35 ERA last season). K.C. has won Keller's last five home starts. The Rangers are going to struggle offensively all season and I think that starts today.
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Matt Severance

PITTSBURGH @ CHI. CUBS | 04/01 | 2:20 PM EDT
UNDER 7
ANALYSIS: Love the Under at -115 as the weather will be a huge factor at Wrigley Field and the Pirates probably have the worst lineup in the majors other than NL Rookie of the Year favorite Ke'Bryan Hayes. The forecast for Thursday afternoon: 34 degrees, winds blowing in from left-left/center at more than 20 mph (forget homers there) and a wind chill in the 20s. I'll be shocked if even five runs are scored here.

MINNESOTA @ VEGAS | 04/01 | 10:30 PM EDT
VEGAS -175
ANALYSIS: The Golden Knights burned us at better than -200 on Wednesday night in a 4-2 home loss to Los Angeles, dropping to 14-3-1 at T-Mobile Arena. Normally, I would stay away from a team in the second of a back-to-back, but visiting Minnesota is on the same and lost its fifth straight road game Wednesday, 4-2 in San Jose. Thus, sizable advantage for Vegas. Minnesota also remains without two key forwards in Zach Parise and Marcus Foligno. The home team has won the past six in the series.

ATLANTA @ PHILADELPHIA | 04/01 | 3:05 PM EDT
UNDER 7
ANALYSIS: Two very good starting pitchers in Atlanta's Max Fried (7-0, 2.25 ERA in 2020) and Philadelphia's Aaron Nola (5-5, 3.28). Fried was 2-0 with a 0.90 ERA in two starts last year vs. the Phillies. However, I'm going Under 7 runs due to the weather: Temperatures in the 40s, winds 15-20 mph blowing in from left field with gusts over 30 mph.
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Kyle Akins

PHILADELPHIA @ CLEVELAND | 04/01 | 7:00 PM EDT
PHILADELPHIA -9
ANALYSIS: Facing the Clippers and then the Nuggets on the road is about as hard of a stretch as a team is going to face. Philadelphia struggled in those two games but is in a far different situation on Thursday, and the 76ers should capitalize. Cleveland is coming off a 114-75 loss in Utah Monday. The Cavaliers are 0-8 ATS with rest coming off a double-digit road loss. Cleveland shot a brutal 34.9 percent from the field in that loss. The Cavaliers are 0-11 ATS with rest after they had a shooting percentage at least 10 percent below their season-to-date average last game.
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Kenny White

CHI. WHITE SOX @ L.A. ANGELS | 04/01 | 10:05 PM EDT
UNDER 8.5
ANALYSIS: MLB teams have been playing most day games in spring training. Here we will have two aces under the lights. Lucas Giolito has enjoyed great success over the last two seasons. He worked 5.2 scoreless innings in his last spring tune-up game. Dylan Bundy is in his prime and coming off his best season.
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Mike McClure

MINNESOTA @ MILWAUKEE | 04/01 | 2:10 PM EDT
MINNESOTA +101
ANALYSIS: The Twins offer nice value as slight road dogs against Brandon Woodruff. I love this Twins lineup from top to bottom, and I love what we saw last season from Kenta Maeda. I make the Twins -117 as I have them winning 54% of simulations in this matchup.

ST. LOUIS @ CINCINNATI | 04/01 | 4:10 PM EDT
CINCINNATI -115
ANALYSIS: It sounds crazy, but I truly believe this line is inflated by almost 20 cents due to the Nolan Arenado signing. Castillo is the better pitcher in this matchup, and I have some pretty meaningful concerns about the sharp decline in strikeout rate for Flaherty last season. I make the Reds -132 home favorites as my model has them winning 57% of simulations.
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ATS BASEBALL

5 Phils
5 Texas over
5 white Sox
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Free Premium Service Plays For Thursday 4/1/21 1 month 2 weeks ago #531708

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Mike Barner

ATLANTA @ SAN ANTONIO | 04/01 | 8:30 PM EDT
SAN ANTONIO +1
ANALYSIS: The Hawks have lost four of their last five and will have to try and turn things around without John Collins (ankle), who has already been ruled out. To make matters worse, this is their seventh straight game on the road. The Spurs aren’t exactly at the top of their game right now, either. But given the Hawks situation, expect the Spurs to emerge victorious.

GOLDEN ST. @ MIAMI | 04/01 | 8:00 PM EDT
MIAMI -2.5
ANALYSIS: The last time these two teams met, the Warriors pulled off an eight-point win at home. However, they have been a much worse team on the road, posting a 9-15 ATS record. Victor Oladipo (illness) is expected to make his debut for the Heat, leaving them with an even deeper roster. Add in the Warriors lack of depth and I like the Heat to cover this small number.
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ramnba.info

Miami Heat - Golden State Warriors
Miami Heat -3
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Gus Augustine

40 Dime
Interconference
Game of the Week

Heat -2.5 (40 dime)
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Vince Akins
NBA ATS Big Plays 15-3 last 18..

NBA
Los Angeles Clippers +2.5 (-114)
Brooklyn Nets -150 (Moneyline)
Philadelphia 76ers/Cleveland Cavaliers Over 210.5
Golden State Warriors/Miami Heat Under 218.5

All regular plays
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Kevin Rogers
Vegasinsider NBA
Golden State Warriors vs Miami Heat
TV; TNT - Time; 7:40pm

Best Bet - Miami Heat/Golden State Warriors Under 219
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Jonathan Willis
Vegasinsider NBA
Denver Nuggets vs Los Angeles Clippers
TV: TNT - Time: 10:10pm

Best Bet - Denver Nuggets -125 (Moneyline)
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games postponed

Mets vs Nationals
Red Sox vs Orioles
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Michael Crosson - Vegasinsider

MLB
Philadelphia Phillies -117
Chicago White Sox -112

NBA
Miami Heat/Golden State Warriors Under 220
New Orleans Pelicans -9
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Free Premium Service Plays For Thursday 4/1/21 1 month 2 weeks ago #531709

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John Bollman

MINNESOTA @ VEGAS | 04/01 | 10:30 PM EDT
VEGAS -150
ANALYSIS: Both these teams played last night and lost 4-2 games, the only difference is the Golden Knights don’t have to travel. Robin Lehner will most likely be starting for the Golden Knights, but Marc-Andre Fleury gave up four goals last night. I don’t expect the Knights to lose back to back at home, take the Golden Knights.
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IC

Islanders (4U)
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Scott Spreitzer

Parlay: Lighting/Hurricanes (3U)

Cardiff (4U)
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Stats Analytics Sports

MLB - All 1* plays
Dodgers/Rockies Under 11
Reds -1.5 runs (+185)
Rangers/Royals Under 9
Giants -1.5 runs (+145)

NBA 3* Best Bet - Cleveland Cavaliers +10
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Rockdeman Sports (MLB Underdog of the Day) - Atlanta Braves +110
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Delphi Sports

NBA
3* #540 San Antonio -1
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Jack Winningham has LAD/COLO first 5 innings UNDER 6 run
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Baseball Prophet

Phils over 3.5
Pit/Cubs over 6.5
Padres over 5
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Matt Snyder

MINNESOTA @ MILWAUKEE | 04/01 | 2:10 PM EDT
MINNESOTA +101
ANALYSIS: Kenta Maeda was sneakily one of the best pitchers in baseball last season and dominated all spring. In two starts against the Brewers last year, he had a 1.84 ERA in 14 2/3 innings with 17 strikeouts. Yes, the Brewers are a tough home team, but they were only 15-14 in Miller Park last year and were actually outscored by eight runs in those 29 games. I love Maeda and the Twins' value here as an underdog.
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Free Premium Service Plays For Thursday 4/1/21 1 month 2 weeks ago #531712

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Dave Essler

3* GOM
Nets Under 226
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Scott Spreitzer

Clippers +1.5 (4U)
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Mitchell Newman

50 DIME
MLB Late Night Bailout Lock

White Sox
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Al Demarco

Top-Rated 15-Dime Release

MLB Line Error Lock

SD RL
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Bobby Valentino

50 Dime
MLB Opening Night Lock

White Sox
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Chris Jordan

200♦

A.L. Game of the Week

A's
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Gabriel Dupont

30 Dime
Mismatch of the Week

NYR PL
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Tommy Brunson

Top-Rated
100 DIME
Interconference Game of the Year

Heat
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Karl Garrett

40 DIME
Winner # 13 of 19

Central Division Lock

Dallas Stars
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Trace Adams

Top-Rated
1000♦

Opening Day Best Bet

Cincinnati Reds
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Kirby Maxwell

40 Dime
N.L. Central
Opening Game Lock

Stl Cardinals
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GodfatherLocks

*** top rated 2000 unit picks ***

#1 - milwaukee brewers -115 (mlb)
#2 - philadelphia phillies -120 (mlb)
#3 - cincinnati reds -115 (mlb)
#4 - houston astros -105 (mlb)
#5 - los angeles clippers +2 (nba)
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Free Premium Service Plays For Thursday 4/1/21 1 month 2 weeks ago #531721

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Wayne Root

Chairman Denver Nuggets
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Tiny Nick’s Locks

White Sox
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John Bollman

HOUSTON @ OAKLAND | 04/01 | 10:07 PM EDT
OAKLAND +101
ANALYSIS: Chris Bassitt is getting the Opening Day start for the Athletics after going 5-2 with a 2.29 ERA last season. Zack Greinke is starting for the Astros and weirdly enough, he has not won a game on Opening Day in his five starts. These two lineups can both hit and these teams tend to have polar home/road splits. However, the Athletics should have a significant bullpen advantage and if Greinke doesn’t pitch deep into the game, that could be the difference.
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Digbets - opening day total (1:10pst pm) 3 carat

mlb - lad/rockies over 11

digbets - icedout (7:30pst pm) 2 carats

nhl - vegas golden knights -160
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BBalfe
CWS -111
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