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(@shazman)
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Monday 3/22/21 free thread for handicapping and expert predictions for NBA, MLB & NCAAB games.

 
Posted : March 22, 2021 7:49 am
(@shazman)
Posts: 57718
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Micah Roberts

COLORADO @ FLORIDA ST. | 03/22 | 7:45 PM EDT
COLORADO +1.5
ANALYSIS: Florida State has won three of its last six games straight up and gone 1-4-1 ATS, showing that the team is playing below its rating lately. Colorado is in a rhythm that follows a great performance with another one, and it's coming off its greatest of the season. The Buffaloes also follow poor outings with bad ones. I like them to continue where they left off in Saturday’s win against Georgetown - shooting well from the field. Colorado should be favored. I took the points.

MARYLAND @ ALABAMA | 03/22 | 8:45 PM EDT
ALABAMA -5.5
ANALYSIS: Maryland played some great defense in its first NCAA Tournament game against Connecticut on Saturday, allowing only 32 percent shooting while shooting better than 50 percent from the field and 3-point range. The Terrapins now have won two of their last five contests. Alabama has won seven straight and 10 of its last 11. I’m on the team better prepared to win regularly - the Crimson Tide.

LSU @ MICHIGAN | 03/22 | 7:10 PM EDT
MICHIGAN -5
ANALYSIS: I was pleased with the way Michigan came together in its first NCAA Tournament game while coping with the foot injury that has sidelined Isaiah Livers. The defense was still the same, holding opponents to 36 percent shooting and the offense was on par, shooting 48 percent and making 9-of-26 from 3-point range (35 percent). They looked like the usual Wolverines to me, and then got bonuses with Brandon Johns Jr. and Eli Brooks contributing more than usual. The Wolverines are going to be just fine and get the cover against LSU.
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Stephen Oh

ATLANTA @ L.A. CLIPPERS | 03/22 | 10:00 PM EDT
ATLANTA +6.5
ANALYSIS: My model says the Hawks cover in over 60 percent of the simulations, so you're getting strong value at this number. Atlanta hasn't lost since Feb. 28 at Miami, winning eight straight contests - including five on the road. The Hawks also own a victory over the Clippers this season, as they posted a 108-99 triumph on Jan. 26 at home. Los Angeles defeated Charlotte on Saturday but hasn't won consecutive games since mid-February. Even if Atlanta doesn't pull out a win, you can't pass up the points.
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Micah Roberts

OREGON @ IOWA | 03/22 | 12:10 PM EDT
OVER 147.5
ANALYSIS: This should be the fastest game on Monday’s schedule as Iowa averages an 85-72 score this season. More importantly, Oregon has picked up the pace, going Over in its last seven games and winning six of them (5-2 ATS). The Ducks lost to a hot Oregon State squad in the Pac-12 tournament and didn’t shoot well but still got the game Over, which is the top play in this game.

OKLAHOMA @ GONZAGA | 03/22 | 2:40 PM EDT
OKLAHOMA +14.5
ANALYSIS: The Sooners are coming off a win and a cover to make them 1-7 ATS in their last eight games. They now have the daunting task of facing unbeaten Gonzaga, which is just as sharp as ever. The Bulldogs are shooting 55 percent and scoring 92 points per contest. But their defense isn’t as good as it was on past teams. Oklahoma has gone 7-1 ATS in its last eight as an underdog. I think this is a good spot for Gonzaga to experience a scare, with Oklahoma hanging around and having a chance to win. I took the points with the scrappy Sooners.
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Larry Hartstein

OHIO @ CREIGHTON | 03/22 | 6:10 PM EDT
OHIO +5.5
ANALYSIS: The Bobcats have won and covered 10 of their last 11 and face a Creighton team that's fortunate to have survived UCSB. Ohio star Jason Preston had 11 points, 13 rebounds and eight assists in the upset of Virginia; he should take more than seven shots Monday. Creighton is 3-4 ATS in its last seven games, with one of the covers coming by one point. Look for an entertaining, high-scoring game that goes down to the wire.
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Thom Cunningham Vegasinsider

CBB
Gonzaga -14
Abilene Christian +4.5
Colorado +2
Colorado/Florida State Under 141
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David Schwab (Vegasinsider)
College Basketball 6-1 ATS Sunday

CBB
LSU/Michigan Over 148 (BIG PLAY Monday)
Iowa -4
Iowa/Oregon Over 147
Ohio U. +5.5
Alabama -5
Kansas +1.5
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Tim Wilkinson Vegasinsider

CBB
Gonzaga -14
LSU +5.5
USC/Kansas Under 135.5
LSU/Michigan Over 148
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Vegasinsider College Basketball Totals Club

CBB
Iowa/Oregon Over 147 (BIG PLAY Monday)
Oklahoma/Gonzaga Over 154
Abilene Christian/UCLA Under 134
Creighton/Ohio Under 149
USC/Kansas Under 135
Alabama/Maryland Under 139
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Dave Essler CBB Tourney GOY

818 Gonzaga -14.0 (-110) Pinnacle vs 817 Oklahoma

triple-dime bet

Analysis:
It's not often I'll lay these points and go bigger, but the work says so. We know what Gonzaga can do. They have a lottery pick, a first round pick, and a second round NBA draft pick all on the floor at the same time. Aside from Gonzaga playing four top 20 teams before conference play, they play BYU and St. Mary's, both of whom play better defenses than Oklahoma. The Sooners shot just 32% from deep in conference play, and they don't rebound well, and of course they're grossly undersized here. They are expended a lot of energy beating Missouri, and Gonzaga will make them run. Their best win sinceã mid February is over Iowa State, and they're without De'Vion Harman for good now. There are just too many ways Gonzaga just pounds the shit out of them.
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Posted : March 22, 2021 8:03 am
(@shazman)
Posts: 57718
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Larry Ness

Nba 10* weekly wipeout
clippers-6

9* cbb ultimate underdog
oklahoma+14.5
CBI 10* 1st Rnd Game of Year
bellarmine-1
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Insider Sports Report

Premier Picks® For 03/22/21

4* U.C.L.A. -4.5 over Abilene Christian (NCAAB)
Range: -2.5 to -6.5

3* Cleveland +4 over Sacramento (NBA)
Range: +6 to +2

3* Kansas +1 over U.S.C. (NCAAB)
Range: +2.5 to -2
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Al McMordie

100% CBI TOURNEY $$ - Stetson +9.5

NCAAB
UCLA -4.5
Creighton -5.5
Michigan -4.5
Alabama -5.5

NHL
Hurricanes -155
Sharks -123
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Ralph Michaels aka Cal Sports

3% Alabama/Maryland Over 138'
3% UCLA/Abilene Christian under 133'
4% Gonzaga 1H -8
4% Alabama -5
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Dwayne Bryant

5% - 1H under 73.5 Bryant/Coastal Carolina (5%) good to 72
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Ben Burns
10-wild-1.5-115
10-michigan-lsu-under-148.5
10 montreal-116
9-michigan-4.5
9-ucla-4.5
9-san jose-120
8-creighton-216
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Gus Augustine
50 Dime
College Hoops
Winner
Kansas +1.5
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Posted : March 22, 2021 10:55 am
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Larry Ness

10* cbb situational stunner
florida.st -1.5
9* cbb bailout blowout
Alabama-5.5
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Alan Scozzari

GUARANTEED A WAGER
Germany 2. Bundesliga
Bochum 0 +100

TIP OF THE DAY A WAGER
Spain LaLiga2
Albacete – Cartagena
UNDER 2 -131
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Matt Severance

MARYLAND @ ALABAMA | 03/22 | 8:45 PM EDT
ALABAMA -5.5
ANALYSIS: No. 10 Maryland vs. No. 2 Alabama in East Region. The Tide are taking heavy, heavy action, which is starting to push this number up (-6 at many books) so we better take it now. I'll be honest in that I didn't think the Terps would even beat No. 7 UConn in Round 1, but the Tide are way better than the Huskies. Bama is a dynamic three-point shooting team that also ranks No. 2 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency via KenPom. The Turtles, meanwhile, are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win.
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Bob Balfe

Creighton -5.5/ohio
Ala -5.5/md
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Posted : March 22, 2021 10:58 am
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Mike Barner

TORONTO @ HOUSTON | 03/22 | 9:00 PM EDT
TORONTO -8.5
ANALYSIS: This is a matchup between two teams that are struggling. The Raptors have lost eight straight games while the Rockets have dropped a staggering 20 in a row. Toronto finally is healthy now after an outbreak of COVID-19 left it without several key players for most of its slide. With Houston tanking and having just played Sunday, we could see John Wall and/or Victor Oladipo rested for this game. Despite the Raptors' recent poor play, I still like them to cover this big number.

BOSTON @ MEMPHIS | 03/22 | 9:00 PM EDT
MEMPHIS -2
ANALYSIS: The Celtics have struggled on the road at 8-14, which includes going 7-15 ATS. They just played Sunday, which means Kemba Walker will sit out Monday for rest. With the Grizzlies sporting a healthy roster and home court advantage, look for them to cover Monday.
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Jim Feist

CBB
3* #830 UCLA -4.5
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Wise Guy's Basic VIP Plays for today:

10 Dime | $2,500.00 | CBB AB Christian Wildcats +5

10 Dime | $2,500.00 | CBB Oregon Ducks +5 1/2

25 Dime | $6,250.00 | CBB Oklahoma Sooners +14

25 Dime | $6,250.00 | CBB Colorado Buffaloes +1 1/2
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GODFATHERLOCKS

5 TOP RATED 2000* PICKS

#1 - OREGON DUCKS +5.5 (NCAAB)
#2 - CREIGHTON JAYS -5.5 (NCAAB)
#3 - LSU TIGERS +5 (NCAAB)
#4 - FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES -1.5 (NCAAB)
#5 - KANSAS JAYHAWKS +1 (NCAAB)
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Jack Winningham
Gonzaga
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Bondi

4* ala
4* ore
3* ohio
3* col
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Kyle Akins

SACRAMENTO @ CLEVELAND | 03/22 | 7:30 PM EDT
UNDER 223.5
ANALYSIS: Cleveland has put up solid scoring efforts in the last two games it has played with no rest, but that has not been common for the team this season. The Cavaliers have limited depth and do not want to play high-scoring contests on short rest. Cleveland upset Toronto on Sunday, winning 116-105. Even in the victory, the Cavaliers were extremely sloppy with the ball, committing 26 turnovers. In a loss to San Antonio in their prior game, they only had 10 turnovers. Cleveland is 0-12-1 OU coming off a win in which it committed at least 10 more turnovers than in the previous contest.
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Posted : March 22, 2021 11:28 am
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Posts: 57718
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Frank sawyer
25 goy
Oregon
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Matt Severance

OREGON @ IOWA | 03/22 | 12:10 PM EDT
IOWA -5
ANALYSIS: No. 7 Oregon vs. No. 2 Iowa in West Region. I'm a tad apprehensive about picking a Big Ten team to beat a Pac-12 team by more than 5 points considering how good the Pac-12 has been in this tournament and how bad the Big Ten has looked. However, I think it actually hurts Oregon that it was given a walkover in its NCAA Tournament opener vs. VCU, and while the Ducks might be the more athletic team than the Hawkeyes, they don't have a regular who is taller than 6-foot-6, which should mean a huge game for Hawkeyes 6-foot-11 All-American Luka Garza in the paint. The Ducks were destroyed on the boards in their last game, a Pac-12 semifinal loss to Oregon State.

STETSON @ BOWLING GREEN | 03/22 | 11:30 AM EDT
STETSON +8.5
ANALYSIS: CBI Tournament quarterfinal game from a neutral site in Daytona Beach, and we're taking the points because Bowling Green star Justin Turner (19.3 ppg, 4.4 apg) isn't in the starting lineup and is not expected to play for undisclosed reasons.
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IC
Winnipeg Jets -125 (7U)
__________________

Scott Spreitzer

Hurricanes -160 (4U)
UCLA -5 (6U)
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Doug Upstone

UCLA -5 (6U)
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Rockdeman Sports (CBB Underdog of the Day) - Ohio U. +5.5
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World's Worst Picker

Play opposite !

Iowa
Creighton
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Michael Crosson Vegasinsider

NBA - Indiana Pacers +5.5

NBA Player Prop Best Bet - Domantas Sabonis over 6.5 Assists (-108)
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H&H Sports

CBB
Triple Dime - Gonzaga -14
Triple Dime - Oregon/Iowa Over 148.5
Dime - Oregon +5.5
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Bryan Leonard

Oklahoma
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Jesse Schule
Ucla
Ohio
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Aaa
Ohio
Fsu ml
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Jack Jones
15
Ohio
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Jim Feist
Lsu
Ucla
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Posted : March 22, 2021 12:06 pm
(@shazman)
Posts: 57718
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Stats Analytics Sports

NHL - 2* San Jose Sharks -1.5 goals (+185)
__________________

Bryan Leonard

4% [CBB] (817) Oklahoma at (818) Gonzaga

Time: 2:40 PM EDT Oklahoma +14.5 (-110)
Analysis: 817 Oklahoma & Gonzaga
The Sooners enter with a 16-10 record, but the advanced stats say they should have gone 18-8 based on shots taken vs their schedule. Oklahoma has a veteran coach in Lon Kruger that has taken multiple teams to the Big Dance. The Sooners rank 17th in the country in offensive turnover percentage. And 12th in the nation keeping the opposition off the foul line.
Gonzaga has only been outplayed twice on the season, and yet remain undefeated. This seems to be a team of destiny if you ask most of the experts. And the Zags haven’t given much reason to doubt them. The pros have been backing them as well as the amateurs. They enter this contest off a 43 point victory in the opening round. But as good as Gonzaga is this season, there is no way they deserve to be favorites of this magnitude. After watching Illinois, Ohio State, Texas and West Virginia go down earlier. How can anyone run out to lay this type of number.
PLAY OKLAHOMA
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The Prez

5% [NHL] (47) Anaheim Ducks at (48) Minnesota Wild

Time: 7:38 PM EDT Minnesota Wild -122
Analysis: This line can be found right now at Draft Kings and it's a REGULATION Bet (your book will either have it under 60 Min Regulation OR 3way line. - It is good to -160 that is how much I love this play. I will put up the analysis by 2pm EST Monday.
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Larry Hartstein

BOSTON @ MEMPHIS | 03/22 | 9:00 PM EDT
MEMPHIS -2
ANALYSIS: I agree with this line move toward Memphis. The Grizzlies have been dynamite at home lately. Here are their last six home games: 1-point loss to Milwaukee, blowout win over Washington, 1-point loss to Denver, win over Heat, split with Warriors. Boston played Sunday and has been a bad road bet all season. In fact, the Celtics are 1-8 ATS in their last nine away games. Lay the small number.
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Kevin Dolan

5% [NHL] (41) Carolina Hurricanes at (42) Columbus Blue Jackets

Time: 7:08 PM EDT Carolina Hurricanes -165
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Scott Spreitzer

Bulls +8.5 (5U)
Hawks +6.5 (3U)
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Doug Upstone

4 SAN ANTONIO -5
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Al Demarco

Raise the Bar 20 Dime

Alabama
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Kirby Maxwell

40 Dime

Oklahoma
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Mitchell Newman

75 DIME
Winner # 27 of 38
(- and 22 of 30 -)

2nd Round Line Error of the Year

Ucla
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Trace Adams

Double Your Wager
2000♦
Late Night Lock

Usc
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Chris Jordan

Top-Rated
1000♦
Second Round
Game of the Year

Gonzaga
__________________

 
Posted : March 22, 2021 1:50 pm
(@shazman)
Posts: 57718
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Sean Michaels

2nd Biggest College
Play of the Season
75 DIME
Lsu
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Steve Budin

BROOKLYN COLLEGE BOYS
50 DIME
Second Round Bailout Lock
Alabama
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Matt Rivers

Blank Check
Waive The Rating
Oddsmaker Error 2nd Round Lock

Gonzaga
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Executive

400 Creighton
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Marco D'Angelo

5% Creighton -5-
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Oskeim Sports

5% Colorado
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Zack Cimini

LSU @ MICHIGAN | 03/22 | 7:10 PM EDT
MICHIGAN -5
ANALYSIS: The Big Ten’s shockingly downgraded play has left few teams remaining in the NCAA Tournament. Top seed Michigan will aim to keep alive the conference's hopes against an LSU team that’s won five of its last six contests. Without Isaiah Livers (foot), the Wolverines will showcase their depth and pedigree versus the Tigers' poor defense. Grab Michigan.

ABILENE CHR. @ UCLA | 03/22 | 5:15 PM EDT
UCLA -5
ANALYSIS: The Bruins will attempt to become the latest No. 11 seed to advance to the Sweet 16. They’ll face an Abilene Christian team that is defeated Texas in one of the biggest March Madness upsets of all-time. However, the Wildcats struggle against guard-dominant teams, with an in-conference loss to Sam Houston State and non-conference setback against Arkansas. That plays to UCLA’s strength and should pay off for Mick Cronin and his squad. Play the Bruins.
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Vince Akins Spotsbook Breakers

NBA
Memphis Grizzlies -130 (Moneyline)
Utah Jazz -8.5
OKC Thunder/Minnesota Timberwolves Over 226
Indiana Pacers/Milwaukee Bucks Under 232 (BIG PLAY 13-1 Last 14 NBA BIG PLAYS)
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Posted : March 22, 2021 1:53 pm
(@bosox66)
Posts: 26
Eminent Member
 

Hi, anything on jim hurley sir? He was 4-0 yesterday!. Thanks for all you do on here shazman!!

 
Posted : March 22, 2021 2:14 pm
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Wayne Root

Pinnacle Alabama
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WUnderdog
Mens NCAA Tournement

Gonzaga -14 vs oklahoma 2:40 est
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Pointwise phone
1 UCLA
2 Ohio
3 USC
4 Maryland
5 Gonzaga
5 Colorado
5 LSU
5 Oregon
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sports masters

Alabama Crimson Tide (-5.5) 8:45 PM ET
Colorado Buffaloes (+1.5) 7:45 PM ET
Michigan Wolverines (-5) 7:10 PM ET
Creighton Bluejays (-5) 6:10 PM ET
UCLA Bruins (-4.5) 5:15 PM ET
Oregon Ducks (+5.5) 12:10 PM ET
__________________

 
Posted : March 22, 2021 2:19 pm
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Posts: 57718
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The Prez

5% [NHL] (47) Anaheim Ducks at (48) Minnesota Wild

Time: 7:38 PM EDT Minnesota Wild -122
Analysis: This line can be found right now at Draft Kings and it's a REGULATION Bet (your book will either have it under 60 Min Regulation OR 3way line. - It is good to -160 that is how much I love this play. I will put up the analysis by 2pm EST Monday.
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Matt Severance

ST. LOUIS @ VEGAS | 03/22 | 10:00 PM EDT
VEGAS -130
ANALYSIS: Getting Vegas at just -130 at home is great value even in the second of a back-to-back. The Knights are 12-2-1 in Sin City -- granted, St. Louis is an amazing 12-3-2 away, but I still like this pick. The Blues remain without a few key players due to injury and will not have winger Zach Sanford as he landed on the COVID list over the weekend. He has eight goals and 12 points overall. Blues No. 1 goaltender Jordan Binnington has a 4.24 GAA in two games vs. Vegas this year. That's not good.

ABILENE CHR. @ UCLA | 03/22 | 5:15 PM EDT
UCLA -5
ANALYSIS: Just awesome to see little Abilene Christian punk big brother Texas in Round 1, but I think the Horns were overlooking the Wildcats after winning the Big 12 Tournament. UCLA obviously will not be doing that and will be prepared for the pressure defense that forced 23 Texas turnovers -- the Bruins are loaded with good ball-handlers and will have a major size advantage in the backcourt. The problem is that Abilene Christian is not a good offensive team and shot less than 30 percent vs. UT. This may be close for a half, but then the Bruins pull away.

INDIANA @ MILWAUKEE | 03/22 | 9:00 PM EDT
INDIANA +5.5
ANALYSIS: No Giannis Antetokounmpo for the Bucks tonight due to a sprained knee, so this spread will surely drop a bit. Indiana is finally starting to play to its talent level off back-to-back wins in Miami over the weekend. It is the second of a back-to-back for the Pacers, but they can cover this number if not win outright with Giannis sitting.

LSU @ MICHIGAN | 03/22 | 7:10 PM EDT
LSU +5
ANALYSIS: No. 8 LSU vs. No. 1 Michigan from East Region. I went against my gut and picked Iowa in the early game today vs. Oregon ... and got burned bad there. I've seen enough of the vastly overrated Big Ten in this tournament to now pick LSU against the Wolverines, who were outscored in the second half of their Round 1 matchup vs. Texas Southern. While U-M didn't miss injured senior leader Isaiah Livers (13.1 ppg, 6.0 rpg) in that game, it sure will here. The Tigers are 5-0-1 ATS in their past six and their lone SU loss in that span was by a single point to an excellent Alabama team.

CHARLOTTE @ SAN ANTONIO | 03/22 | 8:30 PM EDT
SAN ANTONIO -215
ANALYSIS: Charlotte begins life without former Rookie of the Year favorite LaMelo Ball (see news feed story), and the Hornets are on a three-game skid as it is (all by double digits) and playing the fourth of a five-game road trip. They figure to be devastated after losing Ball most likely for the season. In addition, No. 1 center Cody Zeller is out here as well with an injury. I'm not comfortable giving the Hornets 5.5 points, though, so we will take Spurs on the moneyline.

UTAH @ CHICAGO | 03/22 | 9:00 PM EDT
CHICAGO +9
ANALYSIS: Yes, the Bulls are in the second of a back-to-back and have been better on the road than at home this season -- we won on them Sunday in Detroit -- but this spread is simply too big against a Jazz team at the end of a five-game road trip, which hasn't won back-to-back games in a month and is 1-6 ATS in the past seven. It's also possible Rudy Gobert sits as he's listed as questionable with a hip injury.
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Larry Hartstein

MARYLAND @ ALABAMA | 03/22 | 8:45 PM EDT
ALABAMA -6
ANALYSIS: Wish I'd jumped on this sooner, but I'll still back Alabama at this number. The Terps shot 9 of 18 from 3-point range in their upset win over UConn. That was easily their best long-range shooting performance of the season. Alabama, on the other hand, went 5 of 16 from deep in getting past Iona. The 16 attempts were a season low, and the five makes were the Tide's second-fewest all season. Alabama has a rest edge, too. It finished its game about three hours earlier Saturday night and didn't have to travel from Bloomington to Indianapolis like the Terps did. Look for Jahvon Quinerly to stay out of foul trouble this round and help the Tide cover.

BELLARMINE @ ARMY | 03/22 | 8:30 PM EDT
BELLARMINE -1.5
ANALYSIS: Army has failed to cover seven of its last eight games and struggles to defend 3-point shooters. Bellarmine shoots 37.4 percent from deep. The Knights, in their first year of Division I basketball, are excited to be in the CBI. Look for them to win for the 11th time in their past 13 games.
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digbets - ncaa tourney first half (5:45pm pst) 1 carat

cbb - alabama fh -3.5
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Marc Lawrence
4 Alabama
3 Creighton
3 Kansas
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Posted : March 22, 2021 4:20 pm
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