Thursday 3/4/21 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for NBA, MLB & NCAAB games
Matt Blunt
VegasInsider Golf Expert
2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational
Date: Thursday 3/4 - Sunday 3/7
Venue: Bay Hill Club & Lodge
Location: Orlando, Florida
Par: 72 - Yardage 7,454
Defending Champ: Tyrrell Hatton
TV; Golf Channel & CBS
Contenders
Rory Mcllroy +850
Viktor Hovland +1200
Matthew Fitzpatrick +2500
Mid-Range Value - Rickie Fowler +8000
Long Shot Pick - Maverick McNealy +13,500
72 Hole Matchup:
Sungjae IM -125 over Billy Horschel
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Matt Severance
GOLDEN ST. @ PHOENIX | 03/04 | 10:00 PM EST
PHOENIX -215
ANALYSIS: I don't always recommend betting games 24 hours before they happen, but sometimes you can get great value. I think the Suns at this number (current spread of -5) are such because it's the second of a back-to-back for the Dubs and they played Wednesday without an injured Kelly Oubre. Obviously, then, a decent chance he misses here and I could see a banged-up Draymond Green getting the second of a B2B off as well. If those two things happen, this number is going to rise considerably. The Suns appear healthy and are on regular rest after winning at the Lakers on Tuesday. You could argue giving 5 points right now, too, but I've been getting burned so often lately by 1-2 points on NBA spread wagers that I'm not even going to risk it. I'll pay $215 to win $100.
RHODE ISLAND @ DAYTON | 03/04 | 3:30 PM EST
DAYTON -3
ANALYSIS: ATLANTIC 10 TOURNAMENT -- Dayton is the No. 7 seed and Rhode Island the No. 10 for this second-round game at a neutral site in Richmond. The schools split during the regular season, each winning at home. In the Rams' victory, senior Jeremy Sheppard had 17 points and six rebounds but he will miss this one with an injury. The Richmond native averaged 11.3 points (second on team), 3.1 rebounds and 2.8 assists per game. Rhode Island's lone win in its past seven was vs. Dayton and that took double OT and Rhody rallied from down 18. The Flyers have to be brimming with confidence after winning at A-10 regular-season champion St. Bonaventure on Monday in their finale.
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David Schwab
VegasInsider College Basketball
Texas vs Oklahoma
TV: ESPN - Time: 9:00pm
Best Bet - Texas/Oklahoma Over 142
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Thom Cunningham
VegasInsider College Basketball
Texas vs Oklahoma
TV: ESPN - Time: 9:00pm
Best Bet - Oklahoma -130 (Moneyline)
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Joe Williams
VegasInsider College Basketball
Michigan State vs Michigan
TV: ESPN - Time: 7:00pm
Best Bet - Michigan State/Michigan Over 139
Play #2
VegasInsider College Basketball
Oklahoma State vs Baylor
TV; ESPN2 - Time; 7:00pm
Best Bet - Oklahoma State +12
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Michael Crosson
VegasInsider College Basketball
Oklahoma State vs Baylor
TV; ESPN2 - Time; 7:00pm
Best Bet - Oklahoma State/Baylor Over 149
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PicksWise Sports
College Basketball 3* Best Bets 68-62 Overall
Thursday CBB 3* Best Bet - Texas +2.5
NHL 3* Best Bets RED-HOT 59-34 Overall
Thursday NHL 3* Best Bets
Carolina -1.5 goals (-120)
New York Islanders (-183)
Rest of Card
2* Winnipeg +140
2* Philadelphia/Pittsburgh Over 6
2* Columbus +140
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Insider Sports Report
Premier Picks® For 03/04/21
4* Iowa -16.5 over Nebraska (NCAAB)
Range: -14.5 to -18.5
3* U.T.E.P/Kansas OVER 134.5 (NCAAB)
Range: 133 to 137
3* Jacksonville St. +1.5 over Murray St. (NCAAB)
Range: +3.5 to -1.5
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bettingmartingale
ROMANIA: Romanian Cup
Calarasi – Dynamo
Calarasi +0
Odds : 3.30 / 2 units
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Larry Hartstein
DUQUESNE @ RICHMOND | 03/04 | 11:00 AM EST
DUQUESNE +5.5
ANALYSIS: Richmond leading scorer Blake Francis (back) is a gametime decision for this Atlantic 10 Tournament game, and 6-10 senior Grant Golden is playing with a fractured finger. When these teams met Feb. 20, the Spiders won 79-72 with Francis scoring 17 points and Golden notching 10 points, eight rebounds and eight assists. The Dukes were coming off a 17-day pause and shot 5 of 20 from deep. Take the points in a game that should come down to the wire.
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BetQL NBA Basketball
3* LA Clippers -5.5
3* Sacramento +5
4* Denver Under 225.5
2* Boston Under 217
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BetQL NHL
3* WPG Over 5.5
3* NYI -190
3* PIT +110
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BetQL NCAA
5* Alabama A&M +9
4* Bradley +2
4* Iowa -16.5
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Kyle Akins
OKLAHOMA CITY @ SAN ANTONIO | 03/04 | 9:00 PM EST
OKLAHOMA CITY +6
ANALYSIS: Oklahoma City scored a mere 78 points in its loss at Dallas on Wednesday. It was the smallest amount the Thunder has produced this season. In at least Game 25 of the season, teams that are at least three-point underdogs following an outing in which they scored fewer points than they had in any other contest on the season are 173-138-7 ATS.
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LMM Sports
Dayton
North Florida Early action. ML
parlay them if you like
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Big Al
UMass 1pm
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Mike Barner
MILWAUKEE @ MEMPHIS | 03/04 | 8:00 PM EST
MEMPHIS +6
ANALYSIS: The Bucks have not played well on the road, posting a 5-10-1 record ATS there. Jrue Holiday is back from his bout with COVID-19, but he has played 18 minutes in both games since returning, so expect him to see limited time on the floor again on Thursday. I expect the Grizzlies to keep this contest close.
TORONTO @ BOSTON | 03/04 | 7:00 PM EST
BOSTON -8
ANALYSIS: This is a tough spot for the Raptors, who have several players in the league’s health and safety protocols. The big names who aren’t expected to play Thursday are Fred VanVleet, Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby. On top of that, the Raptors will be playing on back-to-back nights after losing to the Pistons by 24 points Wednesday. This could get ugly in a hurry.
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Gus Augustine
Central Florida -3 (100 dime)
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Wayne Root
Reserve Oklahoma St
Gold Standard Michigan St
Pinnacle San Diego
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Worlds Worst Picker
TCU
Dayton
Play Opposite
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Goodfella
3* - Pelicans/Heat Over 227
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IC
Flyers (3U)
Chelsea +.5 (3U)
Reed/Hovland (5U)
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Scott Spreitzer
Dayton -3.5 (6U)
Flyers (7U)
Everton (4U)
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Worlds Worst Picker
TCU
Dayton
Texas
Play Opposite
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Ben Burns
Cincy
Lipscomb
Bucks
NHL 25* HAT TRICK!
Montreal
Calgary
Flyers
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Jack Banks
10* CBB Conf Dog Game of the Year!
McNeese St
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Power sports
10
Arizona st
10
Grizzlies
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Alex smart
Kansas
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John Ryan
4
St joes
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Sean Murphy
10* NHL UNDERDOG GAME OF THE MONTH!
Penguins
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Larry Ness
CBB Underdog of Month
Ok st
CBB Revenge Rout
Campbell
10* Conf Game of Year
E kentucky
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Dave Essler
GOY
Jacksonville St +2
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Scott Spreitzer
Grizzlies +6 (4U)
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IC
7 - Michigan -12 over Michigan State
7 - Miami over 227
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Larry Hartstein
L.A. CLIPPERS @ WASHINGTON | 03/04 | 7:00 PM EST
L.A. CLIPPERS -5.5
ANALYSIS: With the Clippers having lost five of eight, Paul George called tonight's game a must-win. Kawhi Leonard is questionable but even if he doesn't play I like the Clippers. They demolished Washington 135-116 on Feb. 23 and have covered seven of the past eight meetings. Lay the points.
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Jonathan Willis (VegasInsider NBA)
Best Bet Pelicans/Heat Over 227
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Will rogers
10* CBB MID-MAJOR MAULING
Sienna
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Rocky atkinson
8 Milwuakee bucks -5.5
10 George Washington +8
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Mike balhan
Umass over 152.5
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Matt Severance
GOLDEN ST. @ PHOENIX | 03/04 | 10:00 PM EST
PHOENIX -6.5
ANALYSIS: I'm doubling down for the first time this season on an NBA game. I took the Suns at -215 on the moneyline vs. the Dubs late Wednesday night because Golden State would be playing the second of a back-to-back and I thought there was a good chance the Warriors would rest a key player or two here in the final game before the All-Star break. Well, news just broke that Steph Curry and Draymond Green are out -- and Kelly Oubre probably misses a second straight game due to injury (see news feed story). So let's cash on the ML and spread here.
N.Y. RANGERS @ NEW JERSEY | 03/04 | 7:00 PM EST
NEW JERSEY -102
ANALYSIS: The Blueshirts remain without their best offensive player in Artemi Panarin and a top defenseman in Jacob Trouba. I'm not a huge Devils fan betting-wise, but they are good value at home at this price and with No. 1 netminder Mackenzie Blackwood (5-4-1, 2.58 GAA) starting after getting Tuesday's 2-1 loss to the Islanders off. New Jersey is 2-0 vs. the Rangers this year and both of those were at Madison Square Garden.
BUFFALO @ N.Y. ISLANDERS | 03/04 | 7:00 PM EST
N.Y. ISLANDERS -190
ANALYSIS: The Islanders enter having won four of five and they are 3-0 vs. Buffalo this season. It likely will be Ilya Sorokin in net here, and the rookie has had back-to-back shutouts. The Sabres are down two key defensemen and supposed franchise player Jack Eichel has no goals in his last 10 games. No. 2 center Eric Staal has gone 11 games without scoring a goal. Buffalo has lost its past six as the road team in this series.
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Michael Crosson - VegasInsider
NBA
Boston Celtics -8.5
Miami Heat +2.5
NBA Player Prop Best Bet; Toronto Raptors Kyle Lowry Over 21.5 Points (-106)
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Chris Jordan
600♦
Big 12
Game of the Week
West Virginia -13
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Jack Brayman
Top-Rated
100 Dime
NBA Winner
Knicks
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Gabriel Dupont
60 Dime
NHL Winner # 9 of 10
Blowout of the Week
NYI PL
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Mitchell Newman
OP-RATED
100 DIME
Winner # 19 of 29
College Hoops 25 Point Blowout
Tex Tech -17
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Bobby Valentino
NBA
TOTAL WINNER
# 8 of 11
40 Dime Late Night Bailout
Over 238 Sacramento Kings
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Trace Adams
Top-Rated
1000♦
Winner # 23 of 33 (and 11 of 16)
Big 12 Rivalry Lock
Ok st +13
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Karl Garrett
40 DIME
Winner # 3 in a Row
Puck Line Punisher
Calgary PL
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Kirby Maxwell
40 Dime
College Hoops
Winner # 29 of 47
Ohio Valley Tourney Line Lock
Jax st +3.5
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Accu Picks
NBA
3* #558 New Orleans -3.5
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National Sports Service
4* Eastern Kentucky -3 over Austin Peay (NCAAB)
3* Quinnipiac +2.5 over Saint Peter's (NCAAB)
3* Arizona St./Colorado UNDER 147 (NCAAB)
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Fargo
10 goy
Dayton -4.5
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Goldmine
All 3s
Austin peay +2.5
Rhode island +4
Murray st -3
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Doug Upstone
6* Spurs -6.5
4* Knicks -7
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Vince Akins (Sportsbook Breakers)
NBA
Indiana Pacers +4.5
Portland Trailblazers/Sacramento Kings Under 238
All regular plays
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PicksWise Sports
NBA 3* Best Bets 58-50 overall..
Thursday NBA 3* Best Bets
Boston Celtics -8.5
Denver Nuggets -4
Rest of the Card
2* Boston Celtics/Toronto Raptors Over 220.5
2* New Orleans Pelicans/Miami Heat Under 227.5
2* Washington Wizards/Los Angeles Clippers Over 236
1* Golden State Warriors/Phoenix Suns Under 222
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MidAmerican Sports (Raiderman)
CBB - Oklahoma State +12
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Micah Roberts
DENVER @ INDIANA | 03/04 | 8:00 PM EST
OVER 227
ANALYSIS: The Nuggets have won and covered their last three games, all on the road. Each contest should have gone Over, but the Bucks failed to do their part to exceed the 234-point number in Denver's 128-97 win at Milwaukee on Tuesday. The Nuggets are focused, in a groove and fun to watch. The Pacers ended their four-game slide Wednesday in Cleveland but didn’t cover and are on a 0-5 ATS run while going Over in four straight. The Over looks like the top play on Thursday.
AUSTIN PEAY @ E. KENTUCKY | 03/04 | 10:30 PM EST
E. KENTUCKY -1.5
ANALYSIS: The neutral game site in Evansville, Ind., for the OVC Tournament gives Eastern Kentucky the edge because the Colonels handled being away from home much better than Austin Peay, going 11-4 during their 21-6 season (16-8-1 ATS). The spread suggests these two are rated much closer than I have them, but Austin Peay comes in limping with three straight losses, and losses in four of its last five (1-4 ATS). I’m on Eastern Kentucky.
SO. UTAH @ PORTLAND ST. | 03/04 | 10:05 PM EST
SO. UTAH -2
ANALYSIS: Southern Utah has been cruising along all season in the Big Sky Conference, with coach Todd Simon doing an amazing job. The Thunderbirds are 17-3 overall, 10-2 in conference play and tied for first in the Big Sky. This is a huge game for them, and they'll have to beat Portland State again on Saturday in their regular-season finale. Southern Utah averages 85.6 points, which is third in the nation, shoots 47.6 percent from the field and has senior point guard John Knight III running the show. The Thunderbirds are the play.
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Kenny White
FGCU @ LIPSCOMB | 03/04 | 7:00 PM EST
LIPSCOMB -5
ANALYSIS: Lipscomb is the third seed in the Atlantic Sun conference tournament. The Bisons finished the season with a 9-6 record. Florida Gulf Coast is the sixth seed after finishing 4-5 in the conference. I have the Bisons rated seven points higher than the Eagles.
OKLAHOMA ST. @ BAYLOR | 03/04 | 7:00 PM EST
OKLAHOMA ST. +12
ANALYSIS: Baylor is coming off a tough overtime win over West Virginia, The Bears beat the Cowboys by 15 points on the road earlier this season. But Oklahoma State was without Cade Cunningham in that game and were down to seven scholarship players at the time. The Cowboys have been inspired by remaining eligible for postseason play. They have won their last five games, covering the last four, and scored back to back wins over Oklahoma.
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Larry Hartstein
RHODE ISLAND @ DAYTON | 03/04 | 3:30 PM EST
DAYTON -3.5
ANALYSIS: Rhode Island senior guard Jeremy Sheppard is out with an ankle injury. In the Rams' 91-89 double overtime win against Dayton on Feb. 16, Sheppard played 45 minutes and posted 17 points, six rebounds, four assists and a steal with no turnovers. He shot 7 of 12. That's a big absence for a Rhode Island team that's dropped six of seven. Lay the points as Dayton wins the rubber match.
IOWA ST. @ TEXAS TECH | 03/04 | 7:00 PM EST
IOWA ST. +17
ANALYSIS: Iowa State has not won a conference game, but the Cyclones have played several competitive games against Big 12 powers like Baylor, Texas and West Virginia. Texas Tech is just 2-9 ATS in its last 11 home games and 4-12 ATS in its last 16 as a favorite. With the Red Raiders' visit to Baylor on deck, they could get caught looking ahead. And once the game is in hand, they also could try to preserve their starters for that Sunday showdown. Either way, take the points.
UCF @ EAST CAROLINA | 03/04 | 9:00 PM EST
UCF -3
ANALYSIS: East Carolina hasn't played in nearly a month and returns to host a hot Knights team that's won three in a row and covered four straight. On Jan. 27, host UCF beat the Pirates by seven while holding East Carolina to 4-of-20 shooting from deep. Lay the small number.
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Tom Fornelli
IOWA ST. @ TEXAS TECH | 03/04 | 7:00 PM EST
IOWA ST. +17
ANALYSIS: This isn't a play that's going to excite anybody making it, but it looks like a tricky spot for the Red Raiders. Iowa State stinks out loud, but the Red Raiders have Baylor looming this weekend. Tech wouldn't be the first college basketball team to overlook an inferior opponent with a big game on the horizon. Plus, Tech's been awful against the spread all season, particularly in conference play where it's only 4-11.
MIAMI @ NEW ORLEANS | 03/04 | 8:30 PM EST
NEW ORLEANS -2
ANALYSIS: I like this line where it's at right now and wouldn't be shocked if it moves as we approach tip. With both Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo listed as questionable, I'd expect this line to grow a few points if one or either doesn't play. Still, even if everybody's at full-strength, I like the Pelicans at home here. Even if they're coming off a loss last night.
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Primetime Sports Picks
5 Unit - Arizona St/Colorado UNDER 147 (NCAAB)
3 Unit - Milwaukee -6 over Memphis (NBA)
3 Unit - Utah St. -16.5 over Wyoming (NCAAB)
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Big AL
NHL SLAPSHOT CLUB WINNER!
Dallas Stars
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Zack Cimini
DETROIT @ NEW YORK | 03/04 | 7:30 PM EST
NEW YORK -7
ANALYSIS: On Thursday, the New York Knicks should be able to replicate Sunday’s 109-90 blowout win at Detroit. In the contest the Pistons shot just 38.9 percent from the field and received just 47 points from their starting lineup. A victory also would put the Knicks over .500 heading into the All-Star break. Grab the Knicks, who should be motivated from start to finish.
TEXAS @ OKLAHOMA | 03/04 | 9:00 PM EST
TEXAS +2
ANALYSIS: The Longhorns are playing in their third straight road game, but match up well against the Sooners. Expect their offense to pick up where it left off against Iowa State, as the Longhorns make a late-season push up the polls. Grab Texas.
MURRAY ST. @ JAX. STATE | 03/04 | 8:00 PM EST
MURRAY ST. -3
ANALYSIS: Conference struggles are not customary for Murray State. This year the Racers were .500 in the Ohio Valley at 10-10, including two losses against Jacksonville State. Yet the pressure is now on the Gamecocks to get a third win over Murray. Grab the Racers to get the win that matters most and advance in the tournament.
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Matt Severance
PHILADELPHIA @ PITTSBURGH | 03/04 | 7:00 PM EST
PITTSBURGH +105
ANALYSIS: I picked against the Pens at home vs. Philly on Tuesday because Pittsburgh was without superstar Sidney Crosby in COVID protocols. The Pens won 5-2. Crosby is already out of protocols and should thus play here. Pittsburgh is 8-1-0 at home so getting it as a slight dog Thursday is worthwhile. Tristan Jarry will be in net after stopping 40 shots Tuesday. The Penguins have points in four straight home games against the Flyers (3-0-1) and are 8-2-1 over their last 11 home games against them.
UCF @ EAST CAROLINA | 03/04 | 9:00 PM EST
UCF -3
ANALYSIS: Teams generally have struggled in a return from a long COVID break this season, and East Carolina hasn't played Feb. 8 and had lost seven of eight entering that break. The Pirates will be down to nine scholarship players with Bitumba Baruti out in COVID protocols and Tyrie Jackson and Charles Coleman sidelined with injuries. ECU is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games as a home underdog. The Knights are without a solid player in CJ Walker but have won three straight and covered four in a row.
TORONTO @ VANCOUVER | 03/04 | 10:00 PM EST
VANCOUVER +140
ANALYSIS: Toronto is clearly much better than Vancouver, but this sure does feel like a trap game for the Leafs as they play their fourth road game in six nights and in the second of a back-to-back. Toronto is just 6-15 in its past 21 in the second of a B2B and will not be running out No. 1 goaltender Frederik Andersen after he returned from injury Wednesday in Edmonton. Only three times has a team had to play a B2B with the second game on the road against a team that didn’t play the night before this season. Canucks netminder Thatcher Demko has been better at home (2.71 GAA) and comes off a shutout win at Winnipeg on Monday.
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Pete Blackburn
FLORIDA @ NASHVILLE | 03/04 | 8:00 PM EST
FLORIDA -140
ANALYSIS: The Predators have been a mess this season, and they're going to have to endure some key COVID absences, including D Ryan Ellis. They likely will have a hard time containing Florida's offense. Meanwhile, the Panthers have greatly improved in their own end and Nashville has struggled to generate offense this campaign. Play Florida, which is 6-1-1 on the road, on Thursday.
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John Bollman
BUFFALO @ N.Y. ISLANDERS | 03/04 | 7:00 PM EST
N.Y. ISLANDERS -190
ANALYSIS: The Islanders are much better at home with a 7-0-2 record while the Sabres are just 4-4-1 on the road. The Sabres have lost four games in a row and they are having trouble scoring right now. Take the value in the Islanders at home.
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