Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Tuesday 9/1/20
NBA public betting, line movement September 1
Patrick Everson
Donovan Mitchell and Jamal Murray go at it one more time when the Jazz meet the Nuggets in Game 7 Tuesday. The SuperBook opened at pick 'em, and the Nuggets moved to -1.5, then -1.
NBA betting odds are on the board and getting some attention for Tuesday’s two-game playoff slate. The Denver Nuggets and Utah Jazz collide in Game 7 of a Western Conference first-round series, and the Boston Celtics meet the Toronto Raptors in Game 2 of their Eastern Conference semifinal series.
The SuperBook at Westgate provided insights on NBA opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting for Tuesday’s matchups.
NBA line movement
Denver rallied from a 3-1 deficit to tie Utah at three games apiece in this best-of-7 series, riding Jamal Murray’s 50-point performance Sunday to a 119-107 Game 6 victory. The SuperBook opened Game 7 a pick ‘em, and the Nuggets got to -1.5 by midday Monday before ticking back to -1 for an 8:30 p.m. ET start.
Defending NBA champion Toronto got smacked by Boston 112-94 in Game 1 Sunday. The Raptors opened -1.5 at The SuperBook for Game 2, briefly went to -1, then moved back to the opener for Tuesday’s 5:30 p.m. ET tipoff.
NBA public betting
The Consensus is often indicative of public opinion, and both of Tuesday’s games are landing two-way play. As of late Monday night, picks on the Jazz and Nuggets were perfectly split at 50 percent on both sides, and the Raptors were getting 56 percent of Consensus picks against the Celtics.
723BOSTON -724 TORONTO
BOSTON is 18-5 ATS (12.5 Units) in road games after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games in the current season.
725UTAH -726 DENVER
UTAH is 13-4 ATS (8.6 Units) in road games after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread over the last 2 seasons.
NBA
Long Sheet
Tuesday, September 1
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BOSTON (53 - 24) vs. TORONTO (57 - 20) - 9/1/2020, 5:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 43-32 ATS (+7.8 Units) in all games this season.
TORONTO is 33-23 ATS (+7.7 Units) as a favorite this season.
TORONTO is 23-14 ATS (+7.6 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
BOSTON is 44-29 ATS (+12.1 Units) in all games this season.
BOSTON is 14-6 ATS (+7.4 Units) as an underdog this season.
BOSTON is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) after a division game this season.
BOSTON is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games after 3 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 24-9 ATS (+14.1 Units) off an upset win as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
BOSTON is 25-11 ATS (+12.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
BOSTON is 35-25 ATS (+7.5 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
BOSTON is 15-7 ATS (+7.3 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
BOSTON is 33-24 ATS (+6.6 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
BOSTON is 15-7 ATS (+7.3 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
TORONTO is 227-277 ATS (-77.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 8-5 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 8-5 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
7 of 13 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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UTAH (47 - 31) vs. DENVER (49 - 30) - 9/1/2020, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UTAH is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) vs. division opponents this season.
UTAH is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) off a upset loss as a favorite this season.
UTAH is 13-22 ATS (-11.2 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
UTAH is 12-21 ATS (-11.1 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
DENVER is 28-15 ATS (+11.5 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 5-17 ATS (-13.7 Units) in road games after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 13-26 ATS (-15.6 Units) in road games after scoring 115 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 10-7 against the spread versus UTAH over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 9-8 straight up against UTAH over the last 3 seasons
9 of 17 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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NBA
Tuesday, September 1
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Trend Report
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Boston @ Toronto
Boston
Boston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Boston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Toronto
Toronto is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
Toronto is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Utah @ Denver
Utah
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Utah's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Utah's last 7 games when playing Denver
Denver
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 13 of Denver's last 14 games
NBA
Dunkel
Tuesday, September 1
Boston @ Toronto
Game 723-724
September 1, 2020 @ 5:30 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Boston
129.286
Toronto
124.419
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Boston
by 5
212
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Toronto
by 1 1/2
217 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Boston
(+1 1/2); Under
Utah @ Denver
Game 725-726
September 1, 2020 @ 8:30 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Utah
117.233
Denver
115.617
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Utah
by 1 1/2
233
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Denver
by 1 1/2
218
Dunkel Pick:
Utah
(+1 1/2); Over
Game 2 Odds: Celtics vs. Raptors
Michael Crosson
The second-seeded Toronto Raptors will look to rebound on Tuesday from the NBA Bubble in Orlando when it meets the third-seeded Boston Celtics in Game 2 of their second round series.
Betting Resources
Matchup: Eastern Conference Game 2
2nd Round Series: Celtics lead 1-0
Venue: ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex
Location: Orlando, Florida
Date: Tuesday, Sept. 1, 2020
Time: 5:40 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
The Boston Celtics captured a wire-to-wire win over the Toronto Raptors in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference semifinals. (AP)
Line Movements
Despite being thoroughly handled in Sunday’s Game 1 contest, the Toronto Raptors remain one and a half point favorites for a second consecutive matchup with Boston, as the oddsmakers appear to be giving a slight lean to the defending champs in Game 2, who will be looking to post a statement bounce-back effort.
‘Under’ bettors walked away with winning tickets following the first matchup of this series, as these teams combined for just 206 total points in Game 1, mostly thanks to Toronto’s whopping total of 94. Similar to the opening spread for this contest, the oddsmakers decided to “set it and forget it” with the ‘over-under’ as well, leaving it at the same total as the first matchup – OU 216.5 points.
Celtics money line bettors were thrilled as the team they backed cashed plus-money tickets emphatically in their 18-point Game 1 victory. Boston remains a +100 money line underdog heading into Game 2.
Spread: Toronto -1.5
Money-Line: Toronto -120 Boston +100
Total: 216
Updated Series Price: Boston -190, Toronto +150
Game 1 Recap
At times in the first quarter of Game 1, it was tough to tell if Nick Nurse’s team was playing flat on defense or if the Celtics just came out of the gate scorching-hot on offense, and the truth to the predicament is likely a little bit of both.
Boston put up 39 points in the opening stanza of this series on 57.2 eFG%, and the Raptors appeared to not have the explosive scoring ability needed to mount a comeback, as Toronto never obtained a lead after trailing by 16 points at the end of the first quarter.
Jayson Tatum and Marcus Smart led the way for Boston accounting for over 37% of the Celtics' scoring volume by tallying 21 points a piece to cap off the victory. The first game of this series was ALL Boston, as the group took three out of four periods of Game 1 by an average of 6.6 points, ultimately leading to a 112-94 triumph.
Game 1 Betting Results
It was a wire-to-wire win and cover for Boston in the opener and bettors pressing the Celtics connected on all the dots.
Total bettors playing the 'over' got off to a great start with 62 points in the first 12 minutes but Toronto's inefficient offense helped the 'under' prevail the rest of the way in Game 1.
Outcome: Celtics 112 Raptors 94
Game: Celtics Win, Celtics Cover (+2), Under (217.5)
First Quarter: Celtics Win (39-23), Celtics Cover (+0.5), Over 56
First-Half: Celtics Win (59-42), Celtics Cover (+1), Under 110
Second-Half: Celtics Win (53-52), Celtics Cover (+6.5), Under 111
Celtics Betting Outlook
Inside the Stats
Bubble: 10-3 SU, 7-5-1 ATS, 5-7-1 O/U
Playoffs: 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS, 1-4 O/U
The Celtics continue to get no love from Vegas, as Brad Stevens' crew will head into Game 2 of this seven-game bout with the Raptors as underdogs yet again, despite pummeling the defending champs in the series opener.
Boston will not likely tally another 39-point quarter for the remainder of the post-season, especially against the second-ranked defensive unit in the NBA (TOR), so it is best to analyze Game 1 through a lens of the back three stanzas, which the Celtics won by a total of two points.
I thought Boston’s dominant performance on Sunday would have pulled the spread for Game 2 back down to a ‘pick’em,’ but Raptors bettors still have faith in their resilient group, and I can’t say I blame them after last year’s title run.
If Walker and Smart continue to shoot at the clip they shot from downtown in Game 1 though (9 for 16), Toronto doesn’t stand a chance once that gets mixed in with the offensive efficiency of Tatum.
Raptors Betting Outlook
Inside the Stats
Bubble: 11-2 SU, 9-4 ATS, 4-8-1 O/U
Playoffs: 4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS, 3-2 O/U
Nick Nurse’s team better have more gas in the tank for Game 2 than they brought for Game 1, because his team got outplayed in just about every aspect of the contest in the first matchup between these units, and Toronto is supposed to be the superior team.
The Raptors scored under 25 points in three out of four periods of Game 1 averaging just 23.5 points per stanza, which is a little extreme for this matchup, but does shine light on Kyle Lowry and his crew’s consistent offensive woes against Boston, as they now average just 103 points per game against Boston this season.
Serge Ibaka was a bright-spot for the Toronto in Game 1, as he went three for seven from 3-point land, tallying 15 points in the loss, but the Raptors are going to need a lot more help than that if they want to hand the Celtics their first playoff loss on Tuesday night.
Key Injuries
Boston
PG Tremont Waters: Knee, Game Time Decision
SG Javonte Green: Knee, Out
SF Gordon Hayward: Ankle, Out
Tremont Waters was the lone player to be added to the injury report following Boston’s Game 1 victory over the Raptors. He is questionable with a knee injury, adding to a list that already consists of Hayward and Green.
Toronto
SF Oshae Brissett: Knee, Out
SF Patrick McCaw: Knee, Out
Game 7 Odds: Jazz vs. Nuggets
Michael Crosson
The first Game 7 of the NBA Bubble will take place on Tuesday Sept. 1 from Orlando, Florida as the No. 3 Denver Nuggets meet the No. 6 Utah Jazz in their first round series finale.
This best-of-seven battle has been a series of runs. Denver captured Game 1 in overtime (135-125) before Utah rebounded with three consecutive victories behind an offense averaging 125.6 points per game.
Then, Denver found its defense and it ended up winning Game 5 and 6 while holding the Jazz to 107 in each of its two victories.
For those wondering, NBA Game 7's have been dominated by the home team (105-28) but that number could be tossed out due to these games being played on a neutral court.
Betting Resources
Matchup: Western Conference Game 7
First Round Series: Series tied 3-3
Venue: AdventHealth Arena
Location: Orlando, Florida
Date: Tuesday, Sept. 1, 2020
Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
TV: ABC
Line Movements
The third-seeded Denver Nuggets have forced the first Game 7 of this year’s NBA season on Tuesday against the sixth-seeded Utah Jazz, who are riding the coattail of Jamal Murray’s second 50-point explosion of the calendar week. Mike Malone’s team has walked away victorious in its last two contests against the Jazz, but Utah heads into Game 7 with a one-point edge at most books, despite the betting public favoring the Nuggets early.
After cashing ‘over’ tickets in five out of six contests so far in this series, the oddsmakers set the ‘over-under’ for Game 7 at the maximum total for this series – OU 220. Early action on the ‘under’ has pulled that line down to OU 218 though as we near the start of this contest.
Spread: Denver -1
Money-Line: Denver -115 Utah -105
Total: 218.5
Series Odds: Denver -115, Utah -105
Denver PG Jamal Murray scored 50 points in Sunday's Game 6 as the Nuggets avoided elimination once again to the Jazz. (AP)
Game 6 Recap
Donovan Mitchell continued his dominant playoff campaign on Sunday night, tallying his third game with 44+ points in this Western Conference opening round series, but it wasn’t enough to get the job done for the second consecutive game, as Utah dropped the contest 119-107.
The Jazz appeared to have Denver on the ropes heading into Game 6 with a 3-1 lead (two of their three victories by 19+ points), but Murray just simply isn’t ready to go home yet, as he has scored 142 points in the Nuggets last three contests (Game 6 – 50 points).
Some people are suggesting that we just pull everybody else off the court for Game 7 and just let Mitchell and Murray play a 48-minute one-on-one game to determine who advances to the second round of the Western Conference Playoffs.
Very unrealistic – but it sure would be fun to watch. Tuesday night on ABC is “must-watch” television as we will get the privilege of seeing an action-packed duel between emerging superstars in a primetime do-or-die game.
Game 6 Betting Results
Utah couldn't miss a shot in the first quarter yet it only managed to hold a six-point lead. As the Jazz offense cooled off from distance, Denver kept connecting and that was the difference on the hardwood and at the betting counter in Game 6.
Outcome: Nuggets 119 Jazz 107
Game: Nuggets Win, Nuggets Cover (+2.5), Over 219.5
First Quarter: Jazz Win (36-30), Jazz Cover (-1), Over (55.5)
First-Half: Nuggets Win (61-56), Nuggets Cover (+1.5), Over (114.5)
Second-Half: Nuggets Win (58-51), Nuggets Cover (+2.5), Under (110)
Jazz Betting Outlook
Inside the Stats
Utah: 47-31 SU, 36-40-2 ATS, 43-35 O/U
Bubble: 6-8 SU, 6-8 ATS, 10-4 O/U
“Success being overshadowed” has been the theme of Spida-Mitchell’s career so far, hasn’t it? Having a great rookie campaign, only to be beaten out by Ben Simmons for ROY. Playing well in last year’s playoffs, only to get bounced by James Harden and the Rockets in five games.
Now, Mitchell is averaging over 38 points per game in a playoff series with the Nuggets, might not even advance from the series, AND isn’t even the most talked-about player heading into the Game 7 matchup. It may have not appeared that way over the last three games, but Mitchell really is the best player on the floor in this series and I expect him to show up BIG in the final tilt of this series.
Look for him to easily go over whatever “total points” line he is given in this win-or-go-home Game 7 matchup on Tuesday night.
Nuggets Betting Outlook
Inside the Stats
Denver: 49-30 SU, 37-38-4 ATS, 43-35-1 O/U
Bubble: 6-8 SU, 8-6 ATS, 13-1 O/U
Put another tally up on the board, as the Nuggets' Game 6 victory marks the 12th ‘over’ in Denver’s last 13 contests. At first, the point totals piling up could be attributed to the Nuggets' injury issues and defensive struggles, but now their contests are beginning to soar ‘over’ for different reasons, and it starts with the increase in usage of Murray.
Denver typically likes to slow down the pace of the game and play through its All-Star center, Nikola Jokic, but when a guy scoring at the rate Jamal has in his last three games, you abandon the original game plan and feed him the rock; which is what we are seeing from Malone and his staff.
Key Injuries
Utah
C Ed Davis: Knee, Out
PG Justin Wright-Foreman: Not Injury Related, Out
Denver
SF Vlatko Cancar: Foot, Out
SF Will Barton: Knee, Out
The Nuggets were glad to get Gary Harris back from injury in Game 6 with hopes to take some of the scoring load at the guard position off Murray’s shoulders for the remainder of the series, but obviously that did not happen and will not happen in the foreseeable future.