Betting news, trends, odds and predictions for from various handicappers and websites for Wednesday 8/26/20
NBA public betting, line movement for August 26
Patrick Everson
LeBron James and the Lakers can finish off the Trail Blazers in Game 5 Wednesday. Portland won't have Damian Lillard (ankle), and Los Angeles is a 14-point favorite at The SuperBook.
NBA betting odds are up for Wednesday’s trio of conference quarterfinal matchups. The top seeds in each conference can advance to the second round of the NBA playoffs, with the Los Angeles Lakers and Milwaukee Bucks in position to end their respective series in five games.
The SuperBook at Westgate provided insights on NBA opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting for Wednesday’s matchups.
NBA line movement
With Portland Trail Blazers star Damian Lillard sitting out due to an ankle injury, The SuperBook opened the Lakers 12.5-point favorites Tuesday morning, and the line was up to -14 by Tuesday night. Los Angeles boatraced Portland 135-115 in Game 4 to take a 3-1 series lead. The Blazers-Lakers total is also on the move for a 9 p.m. ET tipoff, opening at 225.5 and dropping to 221.5.
Mirroring the Lakers, the Bucks lost Game 1 of their series against the Orlando Magic, then won the next three, including a 121-106 victory Monday night. Milwaukee opened -14 for the 4 p.m. ET Game 5 tipoff, and there was no movement Tuesday.
The Oklahoma City Thunder and Houston Rockets meet in Game 5 at 6:30 p.m. ET, with that series tied at 2. The SuperBook opened Houston -3.5 and ticked to -3 Tuesday afternoon.
NBA public betting
Eric Osterman, manager at The SuperBook, noted two of the three games were getting early attention.
“Most of the early action so far for Wednesday's games has been on the Lakers. We’re getting public money on the spread -14 and the moneyline -1,400,” Osterman said. “We’re seeing some bets sprinkle in on the Rockets -3, but nothing big yet.”
719ORLANDO -720 MILWAUKEE
MILWAUKEE is 14-3 ATS (10.7 Units) in road games when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
721OKLAHOMA CITY -722 HOUSTON
HOUSTON is 84-62 ATS (15.8 Units) vs. winning teams in the last 3 seasons.
723PORTLAND -724 LA LAKERS
LA LAKERS are 10-1 ATS (8.9 Units) in road games versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season in the current season.
NBA
Long Sheet
Wednesday, August 26
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ORLANDO (34 - 43) vs. MILWAUKEE (59 - 18) - 8/26/2020, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ORLANDO is 15-24 ATS (-11.4 Units) as an underdog this season.
ORLANDO is 11-24 ATS (-15.4 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
ORLANDO is 11-24 ATS (-15.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
ORLANDO is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.
MILWAUKEE is 98-72 ATS (+18.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 38-29 ATS (+6.1 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season.
MILWAUKEE is 39-31 ATS (+4.9 Units) as a favorite this season.
MILWAUKEE is 53-37 ATS (+12.3 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 54-35 ATS (+15.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 79-58 ATS (+15.2 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 77-57 ATS (+14.3 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 86-133 ATS (-60.3 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
MILWAUKEE is 9-5 against the spread versus ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
MILWAUKEE is 12-3 straight up against ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
8 of 15 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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OKLAHOMA CITY (46 - 30) vs. HOUSTON (46 - 30) - 8/26/2020, 6:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 112-75 ATS (+29.5 Units) in road games off a upset loss as a favorite since 1996.
HOUSTON is 51-33 ATS (+14.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 53-36 ATS (+13.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 45-30 ATS (+12.0 Units) in all games this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 27-13 ATS (+12.7 Units) as an underdog this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 35-24 ATS (+8.6 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
HOUSTON is 12-21 ATS (-11.1 Units) after allowing 115 points or more this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA CITY is 10-4 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA CITY is 9-5 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
8 of 14 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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PORTLAND (37 - 42) vs. LA LAKERS (55 - 20) - 8/26/2020, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PORTLAND is 33-42 ATS (-13.2 Units) in all games this season.
PORTLAND is 27-36 ATS (-12.6 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season.
PORTLAND is 27-37 ATS (-13.7 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
PORTLAND is 23-35 ATS (-15.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
LA LAKERS is 8-5 against the spread versus PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
LA LAKERS is 7-7 straight up against PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
7 of 13 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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NBA
Wednesday, August 26
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Trend Report
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Orlando @ Milwaukee
Orlando
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Orlando's last 9 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Orlando's last 13 games on the road
Milwaukee
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Milwaukee's last 9 games when playing at home against Orlando
Milwaukee is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Orlando
Oklahoma City @ Houston
Oklahoma City
Oklahoma City is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Houston
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Oklahoma City's last 8 games
Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston's last 7 games at home
Houston is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games when playing at home against Oklahoma City
Portland @ LA Lakers
Portland
Portland is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games when playing on the road against LA Lakers
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Portland's last 12 games when playing on the road against LA Lakers
LA Lakers
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of LA Lakers's last 12 games when playing at home against Portland
LA Lakers is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Portland
Game 5 Odds: Thunder vs. Rockets
Michael Crosson
The 4-5 matchup in the Western Conference will heat up on Wednesday when fourth-seeded Houston will look to get back on track against fifth-seeded Oklahoma City.
The Rockets captured the first two games in the series by double-digit margins but the Thunder have rallied for back-to-back victories, one coming in overtime and the other decided by just three points.
Betting Resources
Matchup: Western Conference Game 5
First Round Series: Series tied 2-2
Venue: ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex
Location: Orlando, Florida
Date: Wednesday, Aug. 26, 2020
Time: 6:30 p.m. ET
TV: TNT
Oklahoma City has matched the small-ball style of Houston and that has helped the club capture victories in the last two games. (AP)
Line Movements
Despite losing two straight games to the Thunder, the Rockets still opened as two and a half-point favorites for Game 5, and we are seeing that number climb up to three and a half points at most books with the majority of the early action backing Houston to bounce back.
We have seen the peak ‘over-under’ for this contest climb to 226.5 for Game 2 and stoop down to 223 for its lowest point in Game 3, but the total finally returns to what it opened at in Game 1 following consecutive ‘overs’, which is a healthy line of OU 225.
Good value on the money line coming up in Wednesday’s contest as the Thunder have managed to knock off Houston in consecutive games, but still cash as +126 underdogs despite the ambiguity regarding Russell Westbrook’s availability for the fourth seed.
Spread: Houston -3.5
Money-Line: Houston -165, Oklahoma City +145
Total: 225.5
Updated Series Price: Houston -500, Oklahoma City +350
Game 4 Recap
The Rockets looked like the far better team in the first two contests of this Western Conference first round series, but the last two contests of this seven game set tightened up, and we saw Oklahoma City emerge as victors in both games that contained “clutch” moments in them.
Oklahoma City was only able to muster up an average of 103 points in the first two games of this series, but seem to have figured out how to get through the center-less Houston defense by now, scoring 119 and 117 in its last two contests.
A big part of those scoring outbursts are thanks to Thunder sixth-man Dennis Schroeder, who went for 30 points in Game 5, pacing his team in scoring.
It takes a lot to knock off James Harden in a playoff series, but if OKC continues to muster up offensive performances similar to their previous two games, there is no doubt they have a shot of being the team that advances from this series.
Game 4 Betting Results
It was a great Game 4 for bettors taking the 'over' as the pair combined for 62 points in the first quarter and 120 by halftime. The pace slowed down and the Thunder did just enough to pull away for the victory as a three-point underdog.
Outcome: Thunder 117 Rockets 114
Game: Thunder Win, Thunder Cover (+3), Over 223.5
First Quarter: Rockets Win (37-35), Rockets Cover (-1), Over 58
First-Half: Tied (60-60), Thunder Cover (-1.5), Over 117.5
Second-Half: Thunder Win (57-54), Thunder Cover (+2), Under 115
Thunder Betting Outlook
Inside the Stats
Overall: 46-30 SU, 46-30 ATS, 38-37-1 O/U
Bubble: 6-6 SU, 6-6 ATS, 7-5 O/U
A team that was originally supposed to be in the middle of a rebuild and expected to deal players at the trade deadline now has the series knotted up 2-2 with a potential title-contender, and heads into Game 5 with a boat-load of confidence following consecutive victories in this Western Conference opening round.
Oklahoma City has the best record in the NBA in the clutch this season (31-15), and much of that can be chalked up to Chris Paul being the league leader in “clutch points,” racking up over 120 points in crunch-time during the regular season.
This Thunder team is loaded with guys who thrive on taking big shots, and are going to make a really tough out for the Rockets, especially if they continue to play without Westbrook. We saw emotions flare up between old teammates all over the court in Game 4, I expect Wednesday’s contest to be a doozie as well.
Rockets Betting Outlook
Inside the Stats
Overall: 46-30 SU, 35-40-1 ATS, 32-43-1 O/U
Bubble: 6-6 SU, 6-6 ATS, 5-7 O/U
The Rockets broke their own NBA record of most 3-point field goals attempted in a playoff game, jacking up 58 3-pointers in their 117-114 Game 4 loss on Saturday.
When Westbrook sits out for Houston, the offense tends to become one-dimensional, relying on the three-ball for the majority of its points, and we are seeing a glaring example of that demonstrated by their inconsistency over the first four contests in this series.
Houston came out of the break banging eight straight long balls in the third stanza, but finished the half under 40% behind a 3 for 18 cold-spell, ultimately losing them the contest.
The Rockets are still capable of beating anybody without Westbrook, it just becomes more like rolling dice, as you never know how Houston is going to come out and shoot from deep and can feel like riding a literal roller coaster at times during games.
I think the Rockets are by far the better team in this series and should ultimately win it, but I am personally electing to stay away from siding with Houston until Russ is back on the floor and looks healthy.
Key Injuries
Oklahoma City
SG Deonte Burton: Illness - Game Time Decision
Houston
SF Luc Mbah a Moute: Knee - Game Time Decision
PG Russell Westbrook: Quadriceps - Game Time Decision
The Rockets were hoping to get Westbrook back for Game 4 but opted to play it safe and sit him out as they still owned a 2-1 heading into Monday.
If Russ is physically able to play, I expect him to suit up for Game 5 with the series now knotted up; him being listed as a GTD should be a positive indication of his status moving forward.
NBA
Dunkel
Wednesday, August 26
Orlando @ Milwaukee
Game 719-720
August 26, 2020 @ 4:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Orlando
109.280
Milwaukee
125.808
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Milwaukee
by 16 1/2
228
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Milwaukee
by 14
227
Dunkel Pick:
Milwaukee
(-14); Over
Oklahoma City @ Houston
Game 721-722
August 26, 2020 @ 6:30 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Oklahoma City
111.014
Houston
119.880
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 9
226
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 3
224
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(-3); Over
Portland @ LA Lakers
Game 723-724
August 26, 2020 @ 9:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Portland
109.927
LA Lakers
126.370
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Lakers
by 16 1/2
224
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Lakers
by 13 1/2
222 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LA Lakers
(-13 1/2); Over