Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Friday 7/31/20
NBA public betting, line movement, sharp money for July 31
Patrick Everson
Jayson Tatum and the Celtics opened June 30 as 5-point underdogs to the Bucks at CG Technology books. Boston money showed Thursday, moving the Celtics to +4.5 for Friday's game.
NBA betting odds are running hot as the league returns, with a handful of games on the Friday docket after a successful two-game Thursday night slate. Among the highlights inside the NBA Bubble in Orlando is an Eastern Conference clash between the Celtics and Bucks.
CG Technology sportsbooks risk analyst Dave Sharapan provided insights on NBA opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting for Friday’s matchups. Covers will update this action report with NBA sharp picks vs. public bets and line movement throughout the day.
NBA line movement
The Celtics-Bucks tilt opened Milwaukee -5 at CG Tech books, and Sharapan said that must have been a good number, because it held for a full month, from June 30 until Thursday.
“We aren’t seeing much on the game yet,” Sharapan said Thursday of a 6:30 p.m. ET tipoff.
Shortly thereafter, though, a little money showed on the Celtics, prompting CG Tech to move to Bucks -4.5.
The Rockets opened -1.5 against the Mavericks and ultimately flipped to -1, in part due to Houston’s Russell Westbrook testing positive for COVID-19 in earlier this month. He’s set to play, though, in the 9 p.m. ET nightcap.
Sharapan found the Magic-Nets game among the most intriguing – more on that below – noting the line opened Orlando -5.5 and stretched to -7 for a 2:30 p.m. ET tip, the first game of the day.
NBA sharp money
The aforementioned Westbrook news led to some sharp money on the Mavericks +1.5, helping flip the favorite at CG Tech books.
“I have a sneaky suspicion the line is going to go back, although the bets haven’t indicated that yet,” Sharapan said.
NBA public betting
It’s all Orlando at CG Tech books, including a $5,000 play on the Magic -6.
“We moved right to -7. More public play at -7,” Sharapan said. “The next bet we get on the Nets will be our first. It’s no secret the Nets have been hit hard by the virus, and bettors are playing it that way.”
Seven Nets have tested positive, including Kevin Durant, though his was in March and he wasn’t expected to return this season regardless. Kyrie Irving also won’t return as a shoulder injury heals.
Sharapan said he wouldn’t be surprised to see the public weigh in on the Bucks throughout the day Friday.
705ORLANDO -706 BROOKLYN
BROOKLYN is 29-12 ATS (15.8 Units) in road games versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting <=24 free throws/game - 2nd half of the season in the last 3 seasons.
707MEMPHIS -708 PORTLAND
PORTLAND is 28-12 ATS (14.8 Units) after scoring 105 points or more 5 straight games in the last 3 seasons.
711BOSTON -712 MILWAUKEE
BOSTON is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) in road games when playing 5 or less games in 14 days in the current season.
713SACRAMENTO -714 SAN ANTONIO
SAN ANTONIO is 8-0 ATS (8 Units) revenging a road blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
715HOUSTON -716 DALLAS
DALLAS are 16-6 ATS (9.4 Units) in road games versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game in the current season.
717MIAMI -718 DENVER
DENVER is 19-7 ATS (11.3 Units) after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 against the spread in the last 3 seasons.
719UTAH -720 OKLAHOMA CITY
OKLAHOMA CITY is 12-3 ATS (8.7 Units) in road games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game in the current season.
721NEW ORLEANS -722 LA CLIPPERS
NEW ORLEANS are 12-2 ATS (9.8 Units) in road games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
723PHILADELPHIA -724 INDIANA
PHILADELPHIA is 8-22 ATS (-16.2 Units) in road games revenging a road loss vs opponent in the last 3 seasons.
725LA LAKERS -726 TORONTO
LA LAKERS are 10-1 ATS (8.9 Units) revenging a home loss vs opponent in the current season.
NBA
Dunkel
Friday, July 31
Orlando @ Brooklyn
Game 705-706
July 31, 2020 @ 2:30 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Orlando
116.615
Brooklyn
118.502
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Brooklyn
by 2
208
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Orlando
by 7
211 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Brooklyn
(+7); Under
Memphis @ Portland
Game 707-708
July 31, 2020 @ 4:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Memphis
119.902
Portland
117.279
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Memphis
by 2 1/2
232
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Portland
by 2
222 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Memphis
(+2); Over
Phoenix @ Washington
Game 709-710
July 31, 2020 @ 4:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Phoenix
119.548
Washington
113.184
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Phoenix
by 11 1/2
234
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Phoenix
by 7
225
Dunkel Pick:
Phoenix
(-7); Over
Boston @ Milwaukee
Game 711-712
July 31, 2020 @ 6:30 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Boston
114.474
Milwaukee
125.334
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Milwaukee
by 11
214
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Milwaukee
by 4
218 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Milwaukee
(-4); Under
Sacramento @ San Antonio
Game 713-714
July 31, 2020 @ 8:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Sacramento
116.609
San Antonio
116.143
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Antonio
Even
229
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Sacramento
by 2 1/2
216
Dunkel Pick:
San Antonio
(+2 1/2); Over
Houston @ Dallas
Game 715-716
July 31, 2020 @ 9:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Houston
119.986
Dallas
115.721
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 4
223
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Dallas
by 1
226 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(+1); Under
NBA
Long Sheet
Friday, July 31
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ORLANDO (30 - 35) vs. BROOKLYN (30 - 34) - 7/31/2020, 2:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BROOKLYN is 33-17 ATS (+14.3 Units) in road games revenging a home loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons.
BROOKLYN is 50-33 ATS (+13.7 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
BROOKLYN is 62-47 ATS (+10.3 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
BROOKLYN is 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
ORLANDO is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) after 3 or more consecutive overs over the last 2 seasons.
ORLANDO is 25-13 ATS (+10.7 Units) after allowing 115 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
ORLANDO is 27-14 ATS (+11.6 Units) after scoring 115 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
ORLANDO is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
ORLANDO is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
BROOKLYN is 5-4 against the spread versus ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
BROOKLYN is 5-4 straight up against ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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MEMPHIS (32 - 33) vs. PORTLAND (29 - 37) - 7/31/2020, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MEMPHIS is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) on Friday nights this season.
MEMPHIS is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) against Northwest division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 31-20 ATS (+9.0 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
PORTLAND is 27-37 ATS (-13.7 Units) in all games this season.
PORTLAND is 21-31 ATS (-13.1 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season.
PORTLAND is 21-32 ATS (-14.2 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
PORTLAND is 17-30 ATS (-16.0 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
MEMPHIS is 5-4 against the spread versus PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
MEMPHIS is 5-4 straight up against PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
6 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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PHOENIX (26 - 39) vs. WASHINGTON (24 - 40) - 7/31/2020, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHOENIX is 65-81 ATS (-24.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
PHOENIX is 51-69 ATS (-24.9 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
PHOENIX is 7-15 ATS (-9.5 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
PHOENIX is 49-69 ATS (-26.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
PHOENIX is 20-33 ATS (-16.3 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
PHOENIX is 14-6 ATS (+7.4 Units) in road games revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
WASHINGTON is 167-219 ATS (-73.9 Units) on Friday nights since 1996.
WASHINGTON is 16-30 ATS (-17.0 Units) in road games after allowing 115 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 11-25 ATS (-16.5 Units) in road games after scoring 115 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 49-67 ATS (-24.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 18-35 ATS (-20.5 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 18-34 ATS (-19.4 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 3-2 against the spread versus PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 4-1 straight up against PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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BOSTON (43 - 21) vs. MILWAUKEE (53 - 12) - 7/31/2020, 6:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MILWAUKEE is 93-66 ATS (+20.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 82-58 ATS (+18.2 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 147-109 ATS (+27.1 Units) in road games against Atlantic division opponents since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 98-70 ATS (+21.0 Units) after playing 3 consecutive road games since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 151-113 ATS (+26.7 Units) after 3 or more consecutive losses since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 74-52 ATS (+16.8 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 72-51 ATS (+15.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 37-25 ATS (+9.5 Units) in all games this season.
BOSTON is 45-27 ATS (+15.3 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
BOSTON is 15-7 ATS (+7.3 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
BOSTON is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
BOSTON is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
BOSTON is 99-78 ATS (+13.2 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 13-8 against the spread versus MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
MILWAUKEE is 12-9 straight up against BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
13 of 21 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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SACRAMENTO (28 - 36) vs. SAN ANTONIO (27 - 36) - 7/31/2020, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN ANTONIO is 45-22 ATS (+20.8 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 450-379 ATS (+33.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.
SACRAMENTO is 79-65 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SACRAMENTO is 34-18 ATS (+14.2 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
SACRAMENTO is 42-26 ATS (+13.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 24-37 ATS (-16.7 Units) in all games this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 22-36 ATS (-17.6 Units) after scoring 115 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 21-31 ATS (-13.1 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 20-29 ATS (-11.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
SACRAMENTO is 6-3 against the spread versus SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO is 5-4 straight up against SACRAMENTO over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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HOUSTON (40 - 24) vs. DALLAS (40 - 27) - 7/31/2020, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 38-29 ATS (+6.1 Units) in all games this season.
DALLAS is 27-17 ATS (+8.3 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season.
DALLAS is 41-27 ATS (+11.3 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in road games vs. division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 48-35 ATS (+9.5 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 69-48 ATS (+16.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 31-19 ATS (+10.1 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
DALLAS is 68-50 ATS (+13.0 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 46-29 ATS (+14.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 48-32 ATS (+12.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 6-4 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 7-3 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
6 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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MIAMI (41 - 24) vs. DENVER (43 - 22) - 8/1/2020, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 3-2 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 4-1 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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UTAH (41 - 23) vs. OKLAHOMA CITY (40 - 24) - 8/1/2020, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 39-24 ATS (+12.6 Units) in all games this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 29-18 ATS (+9.2 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
UTAH is 93-70 ATS (+16.0 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
UTAH is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
UTAH is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA CITY is 10-6 against the spread versus UTAH over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA CITY is 10-6 straight up against UTAH over the last 3 seasons
11 of 16 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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NEW ORLEANS (28 - 36) vs. LA CLIPPERS (44 - 20) - 8/1/2020, 6:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CLIPPERS are 82-68 ATS (+7.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 58-37 ATS (+17.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 40-27 ATS (+10.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 48-29 ATS (+16.1 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 7-3 against the spread versus LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 6-4 straight up against LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
5 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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PHILADELPHIA (39 - 26) vs. INDIANA (39 - 26) - 8/1/2020, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in road games revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 16-28 ATS (-14.8 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 29-42 ATS (-17.2 Units) after scoring 115 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 6-14 ATS (-9.4 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
INDIANA is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) on Saturday games this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANA is 6-4 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
INDIANA is 5-5 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
8 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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LA LAKERS (49 - 14) vs. TORONTO (46 - 18) - 8/1/2020, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA LAKERS are 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) against Atlantic division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 18-34 ATS (-19.4 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) revenging a home loss vs opponent this season.
LA LAKERS are 30-20 ATS (+8.0 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
LA LAKERS are 29-20 ATS (+7.0 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
TORONTO is 223-274 ATS (-78.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 5-0 against the spread versus LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 5-0 straight up against LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
NBA
Friday, July 31
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Trend Report
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Orlando @ Brooklyn
Orlando
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Orlando's last 5 games
Orlando is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Brooklyn
Brooklyn is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Brooklyn is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Orlando
Memphis @ Portland
Memphis
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Memphis's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Memphis's last 6 games on the road
Portland
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Portland's last 5 games when playing Memphis
Portland is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Memphis
Phoenix @ Washington
Phoenix
Phoenix is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games when playing on the road against Washington
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Phoenix's last 6 games when playing Washington
Washington
Washington is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing Phoenix
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games when playing Phoenix
Boston @ Milwaukee
Boston
Boston is 5-0-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Boston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Milwaukee
Milwaukee is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Milwaukee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Sacramento @ San Antonio
Sacramento
Sacramento is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing San Antonio
Sacramento is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
San Antonio
San Antonio is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games when playing at home against Sacramento
San Antonio is 20-5 SU in its last 25 games when playing Sacramento
Houston @ Dallas
Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Houston's last 8 games when playing on the road against Dallas
Houston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Dallas
Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Dallas's last 8 games when playing at home against Houston
Dallas is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home