Saturday 3/14/20 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for NCAAB, NBA & NHL games.
NFAC/Gianni the Greek
Barzola 1000
bruno Silva 800
ribas 800
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AAA SPORTS' *10* UFC GAME OF THE MONTH (SATURDAY!) >> 1-0 with UFC Picks in 2020!
This is a 10* play on KEVIN LEE UFC Fight Night 170
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POWER SPORTS' *10* Soccer Total of the MONTH (Saturday)
10* Over Norwich/Southampton (11:00 AM ET)
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Al Cimaglia: March 14-Hawthorne Racecourse Late Pick 4 Analysis
March 14, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia
Hawthorne Racecourse has a 9-race card set to roll with the Late 0.50 Pick 4 starting in Race 6. The sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool and it will be my focus.
Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.
Race 6
1-Spunky Bottom Girl (9/2)-Comes off an easy win versus NW1500 and takes a few steps up. Winner of >$52k in 2019 knows how to win and is in a spot to trip out. Likes to race close to the top of the stack and Oosting can put in play.
5-Pine Dream (2-1)-Drops out of Open company in 3rd local start. Has had trouble finishing miles but this is a soft spot. Using but can't completely trust so looking to others as well that could help the Pick 4 payout.
6-Double A Cash Hall (5-1)-9-year-old drops to a better level but will need an improved effort in 4th Haw start. Todd Warren's choice and he takes a spin for the 1st time which shouldn't hurt chances.
8-Pepin Coolie (9-1)-7-year-old makes 2nd start of sophomore season and steps up after a 3rd place finish. Can makes some noise versus this field if Leonard works the right trip.
Race 7
1-Dirt E Rock (8/5)-Has won from the rail and the 9-hole in first 2-lifetime starts and looks a notch above the others tonight.
Race 8
1-Lakeside Buddy (9-1)-Oosting's choice over #3 was a sick scratch last week. Looks to be worth a swing at 9-1 and can be put in play from the rail. Using and hoping the price is at least the morning line odds.
6-Fast Track (9-1)-Makes 2nd start on Lasix and comes off an improved effort last week. Upswing could continue at a juicy price.
8-Toxic Rock (7/2)-Leaves once again from the 8-hole in search of 3rd straight picture. Game 4-year-old rolled off cover and smoked the 2nd half in .56. Should be in the mix but has missed a start.
Race 9
1-Blissful Pansy (20-1)-Only 1-27 past 2 years but has won 8 of 42 at Haw. Had an even effort in 1st start off the bench but did race the last half in .57 and Bates chooses over the #7.
2-Danger Strike (7/2)-Didn't have much pop in 1st local start but was off 13-days. Fits here and looking for better after a start at the track.
3-Tarport Belle (7-1)-Ridge Warren's choice over #8 has beaten better at this meet. Could be put in play early versus this kind and should be in the mix at a fair price.
5-Windsun Brooklyn (9/5)-Team Leonard entry had a nice try in 1st local start and now steps up a notch. Looks like a player but not a standout 9/5 choice.
0.50 Late Pick 4
1,5,6,8/1/1,6,8/1,2,3,5
Total Bet=$24
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Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Wagering Strategies for 2/14/20
March 14, 2020
Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Santa Anita
Saturday, March 14, 2020
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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
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Handicappers also are encouraged to access Jeff’s Daily Santa Anita Workout Analysis (see below), an exclusive report containing commentary, fractional times, grades, and a link to the video of the actual workout by each race’s key contenders.
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Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
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The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Today’s Day Makers: View Video
Today’s Workout Analysis: View PDF File
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RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 2-Majestic Diva; 3-Sheza Factor
Forecast: Majestic Diva just demolished a $12,500 field by almost 10 lengths and earned a giant speed figure that if repeated today will be more than good enough to win right back despite the two-level class hike. She’s had plenty of time to recover from the effort, has trained nicely since, and offers wagering value at 3-1 on the morning line if you can get it. Sheza Factor might be worth tossing in as a saver. A two-time winner over the local main track, she’s a first-off-the-claim play for V. Garcia and projects to be the controlling speed.
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RACE 2: Post 1:29 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 5-Quick Finish; 6-Black Storm
Forecast: Despite failing to change leads in the stretch, Black Storm drew away with complete authority to win a $20,000 claimer two weeks ago and did so with a speed figure that makes him double tough right back despite the raise into the first-level state-bred allowance ranks. He has the proper style for this extended sprint distance in a field without much speed, so we’ll put the G. Stute-trained gelding on top and hope to get close to his morning line of 3-1. Quick Finish can be used as a back-up or a saver. The D. Blacker-trained gelding has been away since last May but is training quite well and should fire a big shot fresh. He has enough early speed to be in the first flight – maybe even in front – and given that type of trip could get brave.
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RACE 3: Post 1:59 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Big Sweep; 2-Approved for Flyby; 3-Loud Loud Music
Forecast There are lots of question marks in this maiden state bred sprint for fillies and mares, so we’ll include three in our rolling exotics but otherwise sit it out. Big Sweep lands F. Prat for her debut and this $40,000 yearling by Mr. Big sports a steady if unspectacular series of workouts that should have her plenty fit. Approved for Flyby a daughter of Vronsky, has a six furlong 1:13.2h workout last month that catches the eye for capable veteran trainer E. Truman and should be a live item on the tote. Loud Loud Music has a brief work tab at Los Alamitos that looks intriguing for S. Miyadi, whose debut runners rarely are advertised in the a.m. The daughter of Tizbud could easily be much better than the moderate workout times might indicate.
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RACE 4: Post 2:31 PT. Grade: B
Use: 5-Kadesh; 6-Big Hoof Dynamite
Forecast: Kadesh just won a maiden $30,000 claimer by more than 13 lengths and earned a speed figure that makes him a solid fit for new connections in this starter optional claimer. The son of Karakontie probably won’t get the soft pace pressing trip that he just enjoyed so he still has something to prove, but we’re thinking that the H. Palma-trained colt, who has produced a forward move in each of his five career starts, will be able to step forward once again. Big Hoof Dynamite also is improving and actually won a photo from Kadesh when they met two races back. He’s reunited with “win rider” F. Prat and should settle into a good stalking position outside and have every chance from the quarter pole home. These are the two we’ll be using in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Kadesh.
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RACE 5: Post 3:03 PT. Grade: B
Use: 2-Li’l Grazen; 4-Songofthedesert; 10-Win Often
Forecast: Li’l Grazen, away since January of 2019, returns protected in a sign of confidence by trainer P. Miller, attracts hot-riding U. Rispoli, and shows a strong, healthy work tab at San Luis Rey Downs. Most effective as a late-running sprinter, she catches a field with plenty of heat to compliment her style and at this extended sprint trip seems capable of producing the last run. Win Often is drawn comfortably outside and should draft into an ideal second flight, stalking position. She’s back on dirt after earning a career top number when second on grass last time out. Songofthedesert, first off the claim for J. Wong (a massive 36% with this angle), vans down from the Bay Area and is clearly well-meant while being raised into the allowance ranks. She appears to be the most dangerous of the speed types and will take them as far as she dan.
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RACE 6: Post 3:35 PT. Grade: X
Use: 2-Great Power; 6-Charlatan
Forecast: Charlatan earned a triple-digit, Grade-1 quality speed figure in his runaway debut maiden win and today removes blinkers, moves up a notch in class and stretches out to a mile. We’ll find out what he’s made in this highly-competitive first-level allowance event, because also in the field is a colt with a similar resume, Great Power a visually highly-impressive maiden first-out winner in fast time during the fall season, training superbly for his comeback, and stretching out to a distance he’s seems certain to enjoy. In a race matching two colts with classic aspirations, it’s a good one to watch but perhaps not a great one to bet on. We’ll pass but include both in our rolling exotics with preference on top to Charlatan.
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RACE 7: Post 4:07 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 6-Ollie’s Candy; 7-Ce Ce
Forecast: Ce Ce tries two turns for the first time - she was fourth in the Acorn S.-G1 at a one turn mile last year - and based on her comeback win looks capable of being up to the task in a terrific edition of the Beholder Mile-G1 for older fillies and mares. The daughter of Elusive Quality could not have been more impressive beating a lesser field in a common gallop and has trained superbly since. We’re projecting the M. McCarthy-trained filly to settle in mid-pack outside and then turn on the pressure from the top of the lane to the wire. Ollie’s Candy is the most dangerous of the closing types and if she gets some help up front could easily blow past everybody in the final furlong. The daughter of Candy Ride, away since finishing a respectable fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff-G1 in November, switches to F. Prat and appears ready to embark on a terrific 5-year-old season. We’ll sink or swim in rolling exotic play using these two and then have extra tickets keying Ce Ce on top.
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RACE 8: Post 4:39 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 2-Blazing Charm; 6-Our Romance
Forecast: Our Romance has much in her favor while dropping into a maiden claimer for the first time and the P. D’Amato-trained filly, after hitting the board in three of her last four races when facing tougher straight maiden foes should greatly appreciate this easier task. She’s also shortening up to a sprint and switching to the main track, so under these more favorable conditions the daughter of Archarcharch seems very likely to produce a winning effort. There’s value here at 5/2 on the morning line if you can get it. Blazing Charm is a sneaky first-timer from an outfit that does well with debut runners, and with F. Prat taking the call the daughter of James Street may be a bit better than her moderate workout times might lead one to believe. At 8-1 on the morning line she’s worth including on a ticket or two as a saver.
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March 14 Cross Country Pick 5 features Triple Crown Prep Races
March 13, 2020
OZONE PARK, N.Y. - The New York Racing Association, Inc. (NYRA) will partner with Oaklawn Park and Turfway Park to host a Cross Country Pick 5 on Saturday, highlighted by the Grade 2, $1 million Rebel in Hot Springs, Arkansas and the Grade 3, $250,000 Jeff Ruby from Turfway Park.
The minimum bet for the multi-track, multi-race wager is 50 cents. Wagering on the Cross Country Pick 5 is also available on track, on ADW platforms, and at simulcast facilities across the country. Every week will feature a mandatory payout of the net pool.
The sequence begins in Race 9 (5:35p.m. Eastern) from Aqueduct Racetrack with a maiden special weight for 3-year-old New York-bred fillies. Drawing a full field of 11, conditioner Linda Rice will saddle Honey Money for owners Darlene Bilinski and Harry Patten, who looks to improve after finishing second in her debut on February 22 at the Big A.
The action will then switch to Turfway Park (Race 10, 5:55 p.m.) for the one-mile Bourbonette Oaks for 3-year-old fillies, a Kentucky Oaks qualifying race offering 20-8-4-2 points to the first four finishers. A field of 12 is led by Laura's Light, shipping in from California for owner Gary Barber and trainer Peter Miller, who will be in search of her third consecutive victory while switching surfaces following a victory on the turf in the Grade 3 Sweet Life on February 16 at Santa Anita Park.
The Cross Country Pick 5 continues in Race 10 at Oaklawn (6:23 p.m.) with the $1 million Rebel, a Kentucky Derby prep race drawing a field of eight with 50-20-10-5 points for the first four finishers. Hall of Fame conditioner Steve Asmussen entered three contenders inncluding Basin for Jackpot Farm, who makes his first start of the season after winning the Grade 1 Runhappy Hopeful at Saratoga Race Course as a juvenile; Ed and Susie Orr 's Silver Prospector who captured the Grade 3 Southwest at Oaklawn on February 17; and Excession for Calumet Farm who will look to rebound off an eighth-place finish in the Grade 2 Risen Star at Fair Grounds on February 15.
The penultimate leg returns to Turfway for the Jeff Ruby (Race 12, 6:42 p.m.) for 3-year-olds. The Kentucky Derby prep race draws has drawn a field of 12 with trainer Wesley Ward entering Invader for owners Grandview Equine, Cheyenne Stables, and LNJ Foxwoods. The War Front colt, listed at odds of 7-2 on the morning-line, will look to win his third consecutive race and is 2-for-2 at Turfway including a score in the John Battaglia on February 14.
Closing out the Cross Country Pick 5 is a maiden special weight race from Oaklawn, a six-furlong sprint featuring a 12-horse field. Cynical Girl for conditioner McLean Roberson and owners Zack Ames and John Mentz will look to improve in her third start coming in off a second-place finish on February 29.
Cross Country Pick 5 - Saturday, March 14:
Leg 1 - Aqueduct, Race 9: $60,000, Maiden Special Weight (5:35 p.m.)
Leg 2 - Turfway Park, Race 10: $150,000 Bourbonette Oaks (5:55 p.m.)
Leg 3 - Oaklawn, Race 10, Grade 2, $1 million Rebel (6:23 p.m.)
Leg 4 - Turfway, Race 11, Grade 3, $250,000 Jeff Ruby (6:42 p.m.)
Leg 5 - Oaklawn, Race 11, $87,000 Maiden Special Weight (6:55 p.m.)
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Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks
Aqueduct - Race #2
Picks Notes
#5 Seven Plus Seven Class dropper dueled hard then stopped last time, but here he looks like the controlling speed over a modest group, and may get brave; hoping he forgets to stop.
#6 Justice of War Underlay didn't fire off the Rice claim and now drops stiffly, and below the claim price, though this outside attack post will help his stalking style; major player.
#4 Legion Storm Stretch runner is favored on the ML and certainly figures, though the run for 25k last time was meek, and Rice hasn't improved him off the claim; trying to beat.
Race Summary The price on the 5 will be big, and that will help alleviate the fact he bombed last time, but if he clears on the lead, which is possible, he could put a scare into them, so give him a look in all the slots, and to start the early Pk5 as well, since a win would go a long way in blowing things up right off the bat, and if he hits the far turn 2 in front, he may be able to deliver it.
Aqueduct - Race #5
Picks Notes
#2 Sunshine Gal NYB has been facing some seasoned AOC types, so this is a decisive class drop, not to mention this stretch runner should get plenty of pace to rally into; love her chances here.
#4 Fair Lassie Fellow NYB hasn't been facing as tough as the pick but does have a stalking gear and should be in good position off the far turn, at what should be a decent price too; second-best.
#3 Ok Honey Stalker was a decent 4th at the level last time, which would snag a piece here, but the top-2 have a bit more class, which means this is a tougher heat this time; underneath only.
Race Summary You certainly won't get rich on the 2 but if the 3-1 ML holds that would be an underlay on a gal who is the class, and gets all the best of it in terms of race flow too, so make an aggressive win and place bet, while getting some added value by singling her to end the early Pk5/Pk4 and to kick off the late Pk5 as well, since she's getting all the best here, and was already tops to begin with.
Aqueduct - Race #8
Picks Notes
#5 Piedi Bianchi Stalker came back off the long layoff and ran huge last time, when beating today's (odd) ML favorite (#2), and she gets a huge boost here too, since shes a stalker in a very spedy field, so if she doesn't regress off that big return, she's going to be a real handful; look out.
#4 Kept True The gal to beat looked good pressing and beating NYB stakes foes last time, and that style will get her first run on the pick today, though with speed to both sides it might be hard to chase the splits, kick clear, and still hold off 'Bianchi in the lane; still, looms plenty scary.
#1 Slimey Stretch runner is far outgunned on paper, and simply not good enough to win this, but the race flow suits her style, and she always runs her race, so with a very positive race flow, and a big price looming, just maybe she lays back and passed a few; may spice up your tri.
Race Summary All things being equal, the 5-2 ML on the pick is very playable, especially if you think she's not going to bounce off the big return, so if that's the case she's worth an aggressive win and place bet, and keying in the late Pk5/Pk4 too, since she gets all the best of it here, while the 4 and the (unmentioned) 2 could get zapped by what looks like a very aggressive pace.
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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks
Charles Town - Race #3
Picks Notes
#3 Meltech Might get a pretty cozy go of things near the top in a spot without much pace. He should be in the mix from the start and seems playable at something like the 3/1 ML offering.
#1 Mayhem Like Me Solid score when returning to the local footing, and he probably has just enough tactical pace to stay in touch in the early going.
#6 Brother Corbin Think there's a real chance this guy is sitting on a step back, but his last stacks up really nicely here if taken at face value.
Race Summary Meltech should not have too much company right up on top early here, and the last time he won was the last time he went for the front.
Charles Town - Race #5
Picks Notes
#2 Grecian Admiral Caught a tough winner when sent to post at 32/1 in the debut run, and though the price gets shorter today, he's got some upside in this second lifetime start.
#1 Bear's Estate Finished just ahead of the top choice when they met last out, but this one has already had six chances, so excuses are getting a little thin at what is a likely underlaid price.
#3 Indian Wildfire Doesn't meet much here outside of the top pair, so he won't have to be a star to score at first asking with these.
Race Summary Grecian Admiral has more upside than Bear's Estate, and that gives him the edge after those two were separated by less than a length last out.
Charles Town - Race #7
Picks Notes
#8 La Medalla do Oro Finishing type can get a decent tracking run here, and the hope is that a couple of the cheaper pace players soften up the heavy chalk early.
#3 Lou's Chardonnay Should be tough after taking an absolutely giant step forward in those last two starts for the new team. Sure, she probably runs these off their feet at a short price, but it's worth trying to beat her.
#1 Bridging the Gap Gets a tough draw from the inside with some other pace stacked up further outside of her. Not impossible, but she'll need everything to go her way.
Race Summary La Medalla de Oro can settle and watch the pace unfold in the early going, and there might be enough other pace to bother Lou's Chardonnay on the engine and set things up for her late run.
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Frank Carulli's Daily Picks
Pocono Downs - Race #3
Picks Notes
#2 ROYAL HEART Set fast pace, held on for third win in a row, enters new barn.
#3 RON BAKARDI Useful return after 3-1/2 months away, should get ideal set-up.
#6 HORSING AROUND Won 4 of his last 6 on the heels of a 2-38 season in 2019.
Race Summary Royal Heart held up under demanding fractions to extend his winning streak to three. The $446k earner can rate as he seeks his 34th victory. Play 2-3 and 2-7 exactas.
Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #5
Picks Notes
#1 ISITFRIDAYYET Stayed in at key juncture, rallied too wide and too late.
#3 TRACEUR HANOVER Millionaire was blocked with run between rivals in the stretch.
#9 POINTS NORTH Regained winning confidence with 1:50.4 romp on the class drop.
Race Summary Isitfridayyet, anxious while saving ground in fourth, didn’t get out in time before the half-mile marker and was shuffled to seventh. He swung 4-wide in the stretch and finished well against several of the same rivals. Play a 1-ALL exacta.
Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #7
Picks Notes
#6 P L JACKSON Has had excuses lately, can overhaul this field, good value play.
#1 ISLANDSPECIALMAJOR Gets class relief, moves outside in, gets second-time Lasix.
#4 BRODY’S SCRAPPER Rallied into photo-finish from second-tier starting spot.
Race Summary P L Jackson rallied fast and wide in the wind and snow three starts back, left too much work to do on the class rise two back, then led until the stretch while racing against his normal style last week. He’s perfectly spotted to win at a decent price.
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Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks
Gulfstream Park - Race #7
Picks Notes
#5 War Star Ran on well and settled for 2nd last out; has been in the hunt in her 5F turf races and can close it out late in the game.
#7 Shes All Woman Is a main-track-only entrant and comes off a solid 2nd; stands out if this comes off the turf.
#1 Stormy Nelly Romped vs. N2L company and takes a step up in class; can prompt the pace from the inside and can stay for a piece of it.
Race Summary War Star has run well on the turf and has the finishing move to get it done. Shes All Woman (MTO) is the choice if this comes off the grass.
Gulfstream Park - Race #9
Picks Notes
#6 Rule Yourself Was in the mix in tougher races at Laurel and gets a positive rider change here; makes 1st start for Joseph, Jr., stable and Gaffalione will have him rolling late. Workouts say he's ready for his 1st since October.
#2 Valdolobo Has been a strong player in all three U.S. starts and takes another step up the conditions ladder; his last was too good to ignore.
#8 Belgrano Was claimed by Russo stable last out and has been in some strong races, mainly in New York.
Race Summary Rule Yourself has a strong closing moves and has responded to Joseph, Jr., stable for morning works. A clean trip gets it done here.
Gulfstream Park - Race #11
Picks Notes
#7 Wildwood's Beauty Made a solid move into 2nd but couldn't finish the job in the G2 Inside Info; will make a strong move today and has the class to prevail.
#1 Blamed Has the speed to get to the lead from the inside and will be very dangerous is she can get a slight breather out front.
#2 Heiressall Comes off a 3rd in a fast race last time and a similar effort can get her number on the board.
Race Summary Wildwood's Beauty has performed well vs. better and will get a good pace in front of her; looks like the perfect spot.
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